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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 58% chance that Britain WON’T leave the EU on March 29 2019
One thing about being a betting exchange like Betfair is that it has to stand in the middle between those who want to place bets and those who want to lay them. This means that in complex markets, which most political ones are, the rules have to be watertight to ensure that there are no arguments and disputes later.
Comments
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First
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Second!
Like Remain.
Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....0 -
.. or to the calendar.CarlottaVance said:Second!
Like Remain.
Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....
The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.0 -
Or the Commission’s thin gruel we’ll be served up today - which I trust the government responds appropriately to...Philip_Thompson said:
.. or to the calendar.CarlottaVance said:Second!
Like Remain.
Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....
The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.0 -
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Remainers: “Thank you dear EU Commission for pointing out the error of our ways. We prostrate ourselves before your benevolent omniscience and beg to be allowed to stay in the EU, Single Market, Customs Union, and join Shengen and the Euro. Surely the proles will see sense now? Best not to ask them, just in case.”CarlottaVance said:
Or the Commission’s thin gruel we’ll be served up today - which I trust the government responds appropriately to...Philip_Thompson said:
.. or to the calendar.CarlottaVance said:Second!
Like Remain.
Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....
The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.
Leavers: “We tried, so be it, fuck’em”0 -
The elections aren't until late May or June, and I'm not sure the new parliament even sits until July. From that point of view say July 1st would be neater than March, and everyone would get a couple more months to get their shit together.Philip_Thompson said:
.. or to the calendar.CarlottaVance said:Second!
Like Remain.
Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....
The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.
Assuming there's a deal, putting the actual withdrawal off for a little bit (but not enough to make the leavers feel they were being robbed) seems like a no-brainer, since everybody's shit is very much not yet together.0 -
A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?0
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The pendulum is swinging in much greater arcs that it's ever done before. The most charming and popular US President has been replaced by a redneck vulgarian moron. Laddish behaviour turned into culture by TV progs and men's mags has done a volte-face into a political correctness that no one in their wildest imagination could have envisaged.
It is impossible for opinion formers-if such people still exist-to have the vaguest idea which way this roller coaster is heading.
The country took a vote in one era and now it's a different one. Only a fool would try to guess what the political mood will be in a years time.Think competely off the wall out of the box left field and you've got as much chance of being correct as anyone else.
I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....0 -
Have Roger & William Glenn ever been seen in the same room together?Roger said:
I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....0 -
No way! He's much more erudite than I am.CarlottaVance said:
Have Roger & William Glenn ever been seen in the same room together?Roger said:
I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....0 -
That's pretty much my view too.edmundintokyo said:
The elections aren't until late May or June, and I'm not sure the new parliament even sits until July. From that point of view say July 1st would be neater than March, and everyone would get a couple more months to get their shit together.Philip_Thompson said:
.. or to the calendar.CarlottaVance said:Second!
Like Remain.
Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....
The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.
Assuming there's a deal, putting the actual withdrawal off for a little bit (but not enough to make the leavers feel they were being robbed) seems like a no-brainer, since everybody's shit is very much not yet together.
There is a tendency to make "unanimous" sound like a high hurdle. It's not. "So, would you like the UK to crash out the EU, resulting in a recession and higher payments. Or would you like to agree with me now, on the phone, that we should extend Article 50 by two weeks?"0 -
A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.AlastairMeeks said:A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?
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Different question. Article 50 required formalities for triggering, because of its constitutional significance. Does that apply to extensions? Unclear.rcs1000 said:
A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.AlastairMeeks said:A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?
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Oxycontin, Tramadol or something stronger?Roger said:The pendulum is swinging in much greater arcs that it's ever done before. The most charming and popular US President has been replaced by a redneck vulgarian moron. Laddish behaviour turned into culture by TV progs and men's mags has done a volte-face into a political correctness that no one in their wildest imagination could have envisaged.
It is impossible for opinion formers-if such people still exist-to have the vaguest idea which way this roller coaster is heading.
The country took a vote in one era and now it's a different one. Only a fool would try to guess what the political mood will be in a years time.Think competely off the wall out of the box left field and you've got as much chance of being correct as anyone else.
I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....0 -
Ethanol?rcs1000 said:
Oxycontin, Tramadol or something stronger?Roger said:The pendulum is swinging in much greater arcs that it's ever done before. The most charming and popular US President has been replaced by a redneck vulgarian moron. Laddish behaviour turned into culture by TV progs and men's mags has done a volte-face into a political correctness that no one in their wildest imagination could have envisaged.
It is impossible for opinion formers-if such people still exist-to have the vaguest idea which way this roller coaster is heading.
The country took a vote in one era and now it's a different one. Only a fool would try to guess what the political mood will be in a years time.Think competely off the wall out of the box left field and you've got as much chance of being correct as anyone else.
I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....0 -
Presumably if it's unclear - by the time legal eagles make it clear - a few week extension would have expired already...AlastairMeeks said:
Different question. Article 50 required formalities for triggering, because of its constitutional significance. Does that apply to extensions? Unclear.rcs1000 said:
A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.AlastairMeeks said:A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?
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I would have thought if it's unclear they would create a mechanism on the fly and then declare that was what the law meant, like the Tyler Precedent (very much made up on the go to satisfy Tyler's vast ego).rkrkrk said:
Presumably if it's unclear - by the time legal eagles make it clear - a few week extension would have expired already...AlastairMeeks said:
Different question. Article 50 required formalities for triggering, because of its constitutional significance. Does that apply to extensions? Unclear.rcs1000 said:
A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.AlastairMeeks said:A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?
It's only when the EU has clear procedures that problems arise, because like Article 50 itself they are invariably written by people who would have been out of their intellectual depth running a village shop.0 -
Yes.rkrkrk said:
Presumably if it's unclear - by the time legal eagles make it clear - a few week extension would have expired already...AlastairMeeks said:
Different question. Article 50 required formalities for triggering, because of its constitutional significance. Does that apply to extensions? Unclear.rcs1000 said:
A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.AlastairMeeks said:A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?
It takes the ECJ months to even agree to hear a case. It would take a year or 18 months before the ECJ opined on whether the extension was legal.
By which point it would be moot.0 -
If all the extant 28 Member States agreed to an extension the ECJ would not need to opine.rcs1000 said:
Yes.rkrkrk said:
Presumably if it's unclear - by the time legal eagles make it clear - a few week extension would have expired already...AlastairMeeks said:
Different question. Article 50 required formalities for triggering, because of its constitutional significance. Does that apply to extensions? Unclear.rcs1000 said:
A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.AlastairMeeks said:A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?
It takes the ECJ months to even agree to hear a case. It would take a year or 18 months before the ECJ opined on whether the extension was legal.
By which point it would be moot.0 -
And since they are invariably ignored when the EU doesn't like their conclusions that's not really important anyway.Bromptonaut said:
If all the extant 28 Member States agreed to an extension the ECJ would not need to opine.rcs1000 said:
Yes.rkrkrk said:
Presumably if it's unclear - by the time legal eagles make it clear - a few week extension would have expired already...AlastairMeeks said:
Different question. Article 50 required formalities for triggering, because of its constitutional significance. Does that apply to extensions? Unclear.rcs1000 said:
A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.AlastairMeeks said:A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?
It takes the ECJ months to even agree to hear a case. It would take a year or 18 months before the ECJ opined on whether the extension was legal.
By which point it would be moot.0 -
Surely it depends on the length of the extension. If the UK and EU agreed to extend the A50 deadline by 100 years then that would arguably have as much constitutional impact as triggering it.AlastairMeeks said:
Different question. Article 50 required formalities for triggering, because of its constitutional significance. Does that apply to extensions? Unclear.rcs1000 said:
A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.AlastairMeeks said:A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?
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Roger might have a point since Conservative governments did join various predecessors to the Euro, so there is no reason to suppose Tory policy can't pivot again.rcs1000 said:
Oxycontin, Tramadol or something stronger?Roger said:The pendulum is swinging in much greater arcs that it's ever done before. The most charming and popular US President has been replaced by a redneck vulgarian moron. Laddish behaviour turned into culture by TV progs and men's mags has done a volte-face into a political correctness that no one in their wildest imagination could have envisaged.
It is impossible for opinion formers-if such people still exist-to have the vaguest idea which way this roller coaster is heading.
The country took a vote in one era and now it's a different one. Only a fool would try to guess what the political mood will be in a years time.Think competely off the wall out of the box left field and you've got as much chance of being correct as anyone else.
I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....0 -
The next problem with an extension is when it would be sought. The deal is going to need to get a round of approvals. If it is to be approved, it needs to have been agreed months in advance. Christmas is cutting it very fine. But if the hold-up is in not deciding an approval, it's not obvious an extension is going to help.0
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/06/italys-radical-new-leaders-denounce-eu-brexit-strategy-foolish/
leaders of Italy’s triumphant conservative alliance have called for a radical change in the EU’s negotiating stance over Brexit, describing threats to restrict trade and punish Britain as ideological idiocy.0 -
Like the EU, who still think that if they make Brexit hard and difficult enough the UK will just give up and stay, far too many punters on this market are letting their own assumptions rule their wallets.
I make this a 75%+ shot and would back it accordingly.0 -
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.0 -
What does the last sentence mean?AlastairMeeks said:The next problem with an extension is when it would be sought. The deal is going to need to get a round of approvals. If it is to be approved, it needs to have been agreed months in advance. Christmas is cutting it very fine. But if the hold-up is in not deciding an approval, it's not obvious an extension is going to help.
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Yes, that's the biggest risk to the bet IMHO, not a cancellation of Brexit. But, it's still 1:4 or less.rcs1000 said:
That's pretty much my view too.edmundintokyo said:
The elections aren't until late May or June, and I'm not sure the new parliament even sits until July. From that point of view say July 1st would be neater than March, and everyone would get a couple more months to get their shit together.Philip_Thompson said:
.. or to the calendar.CarlottaVance said:Second!
Like Remain.
Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....
The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.
Assuming there's a deal, putting the actual withdrawal off for a little bit (but not enough to make the leavers feel they were being robbed) seems like a no-brainer, since everybody's shit is very much not yet together.
There is a tendency to make "unanimous" sound like a high hurdle. It's not. "So, would you like the UK to crash out the EU, resulting in a recession and higher payments. Or would you like to agree with me now, on the phone, that we should extend Article 50 by two weeks?"0 -
"triumphant"?TGOHF said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/06/italys-radical-new-leaders-denounce-eu-brexit-strategy-foolish/
leaders of Italy’s triumphant conservative alliance have called for a radical change in the EU’s negotiating stance over Brexit, describing threats to restrict trade and punish Britain as ideological idiocy.0 -
I'm not sure. The European Parliament ratified Phase 1 of the divorce agreement very quickly after the European Council in December last year. I imagine our Parliament could do the same inside a couple of weeks of debate. So you could still wrap up by February.AlastairMeeks said:The next problem with an extension is when it would be sought. The deal is going to need to get a round of approvals. If it is to be approved, it needs to have been agreed months in advance. Christmas is cutting it very fine. But if the hold-up is in not deciding an approval, it's not obvious an extension is going to help.
It wouldn't surprise me if negotiations go on until that crunch meeting in December.0 -
Bloody predictive text.rkrkrk said:
What does the last sentence mean?AlastairMeeks said:The next problem with an extension is when it would be sought. The deal is going to need to get a round of approvals. If it is to be approved, it needs to have been agreed months in advance. Christmas is cutting it very fine. But if the hold-up is in not deciding an approval, it's not obvious an extension is going to help.
If the problem is that a necessary approval is outstanding because someone isn't happy, an extension may well not help make that party happy and unanimity for the extension may in any case not be forthcoming, depending on how unhappy that unhappy party is.0 -
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.0 -
There must be an EU development grant they can apply forTGOHF said:0 -
Thanks - yes I agree.AlastairMeeks said:
Bloody predictive text.rkrkrk said:
What does the last sentence mean?AlastairMeeks said:The next problem with an extension is when it would be sought. The deal is going to need to get a round of approvals. If it is to be approved, it needs to have been agreed months in advance. Christmas is cutting it very fine. But if the hold-up is in not deciding an approval, it's not obvious an extension is going to help.
If the problem is that a necessary approval is outstanding because someone isn't happy, an extension may well not help make that party happy and unanimity for the extension may in any case not be forthcoming, depending on how unhappy that unhappy party is.
Extension likely only if they are running out of time on a technicality.
Punters may like to note they can also bet on the timing of exit in a secondary betfair market, and so can cover themselves on a 3 month delay...0 -
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Well if he did say that he was a bit silly because it was Brown and Miliband (not Blair) who formulated the government response of expelling four minor diplomats. But it seems more likely his remarks have been misunderstood.CarlottaVance said:
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.0 -
We won't do anything.CarlottaVance said:
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
And Putin will continue to murder Russian dissidents in the UK who displease him.
I expect this sort of thing is very popular in Russia, and fits in with his strongman image.
The purest form of justice would be for one his agents to have an accident whilst on holiday in the UK, but that wouldn't be very British.0 -
Mr Bryant NOT criticising a Tory PM for the shortcomings of her Labour predecessors? You are in a charitable and optimistic mood this morning!ydoethur said:
But it seems more likely his remarks have been misunderstood.CarlottaVance said:
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.0 -
April's polling could be interesting then.TGOHF said:
When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?0 -
What they need is a leadership election to refresh the party and get some publicity.TGOHF said:0 -
That sounds on the face of it like quite bad news?Scott_P said:0 -
You don’t need to put up a deposit for council elections.MarqueeMark said:
April's polling could be interesting then.TGOHF said:
When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?0 -
Problem is not whether we should do something but what can we actually do? The reason Miliband didn't do anything drastic is because our options are limited. We can't get at Putin or his acolytes, economic sanctions are already tight and I don't think a war against Russia would help especially since we would have no chance of winning.Casino_Royale said:
We won't do anything.CarlottaVance said:
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
If we were like Russia we could brutally torture the Ambassador and his staff to make a point but fortunately we are not so we can't.
Putin does these things because he believes he can get away with them. And the trouble is he's right.0 -
The reaction of BoJo et al is hypocritical - the pot calling the kettle black. All intelligence agencies seek to have their countries' perceived opponents bumped off - some are more effective than others, e.g. Mossad. The British government does it - for example, the death of the lawyer Pat Finucane was no accident. The UK government hardly holds the moral high ground given the royal welcome being given today to one of the world's most malevolent gangsters, Mohammed bin Salman.Casino_Royale said:
We won't do anything.CarlottaVance said:
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
And Putin will continue to murder Russian dissidents in the UK who displease him.
I expect this sort of thing is very popular in Russia, and fits in with his strongman image.
The purest form of justice would be for one his agents to have an accident whilst on holiday in the UK, but that wouldn't be very British.0 -
Oh, OK, didn't know that. Surprised we don't get moreTheScreamingEagles said:
You don’t need to put up a deposit for council elections.MarqueeMark said:
April's polling could be interesting then.TGOHF said:
When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?nutterslocal interest groups standing then. (Although I suppose the number of signatures to support your nomination is the constraining factor there?)0 -
You only need 10MarqueeMark said:
Oh, OK, didn't know that. Surprised we don't get moreTheScreamingEagles said:
You don’t need to put up a deposit for council elections.MarqueeMark said:
April's polling could be interesting then.TGOHF said:
When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?nutterslocal interest groups standing then. (Although I suppose the number of signatures to support your nomination is the constraining factor there?)
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I can’t see how it will cost 83,000 jobs but it will cost influence and diminishes the City.Scott_P said:0 -
Ten?MarqueeMark said:
Oh, OK, didn't know that. Surprised we don't get moreTheScreamingEagles said:
You don’t need to put up a deposit for council elections.MarqueeMark said:
April's polling could be interesting then.TGOHF said:
When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?nutterslocal interest groups standing then. (Although I suppose the number of signatures to support your nomination is the constraining factor there?)0 -
Ten locals is all you need.MarqueeMark said:
Oh, OK, didn't know that. Surprised we don't get moreTheScreamingEagles said:
You don’t need to put up a deposit for council elections.MarqueeMark said:
April's polling could be interesting then.TGOHF said:
When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?nutterslocal interest groups standing then. (Although I suppose the number of signatures to support your nomination is the constraining factor there?)0 -
I guess the problem for local interest groups is that local council elections aren't something the locals are very interested in.MarqueeMark said:
Oh, OK, didn't know that. Surprised we don't get moreTheScreamingEagles said:
You don’t need to put up a deposit for council elections.MarqueeMark said:
April's polling could be interesting then.TGOHF said:
When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?nutterslocal interest groups standing then. (Although I suppose the number of signatures to support your nomination is the constraining factor there?)0 -
We've got the Momentum/Labour slate and the remnant of UKIP who believe Bolton has not made them an irrelevant laughing stock. How many nutters do you want?MarqueeMark said:Oh, OK, didn't know that. Surprised we don't get more
nutterslocal interest groups standing then.0 -
Dr Kelly?daodao said:
The reaction of BoJo et al is hypocritical - the pot calling the kettle black. All intelligence agencies seek to have their countries' perceived opponents bumped off - some are more effective than others, e.g. Mossad. The British government does it - for example, the death of the lawyer Pat Finucane was no accident. The UK government hardly holds the moral high ground given the royal welcome being given today to one of the world's most malevolent gangsters, Mohammed bin Salman.Casino_Royale said:
We won't do anything.CarlottaVance said:
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
And Putin will continue to murder Russian dissidents in the UK who displease him.
I expect this sort of thing is very popular in Russia, and fits in with his strongman image.
The purest form of justice would be for one his agents to have an accident whilst on holiday in the UK, but that wouldn't be very British.0 -
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A load of Putin's mafioso scumbags have money, assets and investments in London.ydoethur said:
Problem is not whether we should do something but what can we actually do? The reason Miliband didn't do anything drastic is because our options are limited. We can't get at Putin or his acolytes, economic sanctions are already tight and I don't think a war against Russia would help especially since we would have no chance of winning.Casino_Royale said:
We won't do anything.CarlottaVance said:
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
If we were like Russia we could brutally torture the Ambassador and his staff to make a point but fortunately we are not so we can't.
Putin does these things because he believes he can get away with them. And the trouble is he's right.
Seize it. Kick them in the balls.
They are the only real ones who can and do influence Putin.0 -
That's a very transparent attempt at drawing moral equivalence, with lashings of whataboutism.daodao said:
The reaction of BoJo et al is hypocritical - the pot calling the kettle black. All intelligence agencies seek to have their countries' perceived opponents bumped off - some are more effective than others, e.g. Mossad. The British government does it - for example, the death of the lawyer Pat Finucane was no accident. The UK government hardly holds the moral high ground given the royal welcome being given today to one of the world's most malevolent gangsters, Mohammed bin Salman.Casino_Royale said:
We won't do anything.CarlottaVance said:
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
And Putin will continue to murder Russian dissidents in the UK who displease him.
I expect this sort of thing is very popular in Russia, and fits in with his strongman image.
The purest form of justice would be for one his agents to have an accident whilst on holiday in the UK, but that wouldn't be very British.
Yes, the UK Government hasn't been perfect in the past. No country is. But it also doesn't make the grisly murder of its opponents on its own soil or overseas a matter of routine.0 -
Would make a lot of sense. The formal and financial ties to vested interest does Labour no favours (apart from the money, of course).Scott_P said:0 -
Do you think his lawyers might take exception to that description?daodao said:
The reaction of BoJo et al is hypocritical - the pot calling the kettle black. All intelligence agencies seek to have their countries' perceived opponents bumped off - some are more effective than others, e.g. Mossad. The British government does it - for example, the death of the lawyer Pat Finucane was no accident. The UK government hardly holds the moral high ground given the royal welcome being given today to one of the world's most malevolent gangsters, Mohammed bin Salman.Casino_Royale said:
We won't do anything.CarlottaVance said:
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
And Putin will continue to murder Russian dissidents in the UK who displease him.
I expect this sort of thing is very popular in Russia, and fits in with his strongman image.
The purest form of justice would be for one his agents to have an accident whilst on holiday in the UK, but that wouldn't be very British.0 -
It was tax domiciled in Switzerland so it’s the Swiss who will be losing the tax. And as it’s now both headquartered and domiciled in Belgium, next time there’s a crisis.....Recidivist said:
That sounds on the face of it like quite bad news?Scott_P said:0 -
Leavers have done far more to enable Vladimir Putin's international objectives than anything he himself has done in the last couple of years. Complaining now about an aggressive militaristic power that disregards international norms is self-defeating.0
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No trace of confirmation bias there. No sirree.MarqueeMark said:0 -
His new missiles do look good thoughAlastairMeeks said:Leavers have done far more to enable Vladimir Putin's international objectives than anything he himself has done in the last couple of years. Complaining now about an aggressive militaristic power that disregards international norms is self-defeating.
0 -
It's possible but it's not likely. i could see a scenario where the talks or ratification process went to (and beyond) the wire and a short extension was needed in order to allow for that process to be completed. I agree that the EP elections probably form an absolute deadline unless there's a major rethink on the whole Brexit process, which is highly unlikely. As such, any extension is likely to be only weeks.Philip_Thompson said:
.. or to the calendar.CarlottaVance said:Second!
Like Remain.
Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....
The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.
However, the much more likely outcome is that it'll be 29 March.0 -
While you are corect about the property of his cronies, to seize private assets we would need to have prima facie evidence of criminal activity. Do we have it? I doubt it.Casino_Royale said:
A load of Putin's mafioso scumbags have money, assets and investments in London.ydoethur said:
Problem is not whether we should do something but what can we actually do? The reason Miliband didn't do anything drastic is because our options are limited. We can't get at Putin or his acolytes, economic sanctions are already tight and I don't think a war against Russia would help especially since we would have no chance of winning.Casino_Royale said:
We won't do anything.CarlottaVance said:
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
If we were like Russia we could brutally torture the Ambassador and his staff to make a point but fortunately we are not so we can't.
Putin does these things because he believes he can get away with them. And the trouble is he's right.
Seize it. Kick them in the balls.
They are the only real ones who can and do influence Putin.
And I'm not keen on making exceptions even for the Russian mafia. Imagine how McDonnell could use such a precedent in his crusade for Chavez stylecrony capitalismSocialism0 -
Not really. The Unions are now very public sector oriented, but have always represented the economic agenda more than the more intellectual agenda of the individual members. The contest for General Secretary is a good example, but there are similar ones going back a century.IanB2 said:
Would make a lot of sense. The formal and financial ties to vested interest does Labour no favours (apart from the money, of course).Scott_P said:
Of course, more unionisation of the private sector workforce would improve things further, particularly in respect of the casual and gig economy.0 -
But 83,000 jobs lost? What are we talking about here - closing down the NHS?Bromptonaut said:
No trace of confirmation bias there. No sirree.MarqueeMark said:0 -
Whoa, Nick Robinson alleging that serious russian money laundering goes on in London0
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Which is remarkably silly. Any idea what a realistic threat to jobs might be ?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Russia would not stand a chance in a conventional war against NATO. It is not the USSR. Nobody would win a nuclear exchange.ydoethur said:
Problem is not whether we should do something but what can we actually do? The reason Miliband didn't do anything drastic is because our options are limited. We can't get at Putin or his acolytes, economic sanctions are already tight and I don't think a war against Russia would help especially since we would have no chance of winning.Casino_Royale said:
We won't do anything.CarlottaVance said:
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
If we were like Russia we could brutally torture the Ambassador and his staff to make a point but fortunately we are not so we can't.
Putin does these things because he believes he can get away with them. And the trouble is he's right.
Due to economic prudence (balanced budget, letting the currency go when the oil price fell rather than propping it up, minimal government debt) it is hard to pressure Russia at a macro level. Putin won’t make Eden’s mistake.0 -
Although the A50 deal is agreed by QMV, so if one party within the EU27 isn't happy then it shouldn't delay the signing of the deal. An extension, by contrast, needs unanimity.AlastairMeeks said:
Bloody predictive text.rkrkrk said:
What does the last sentence mean?AlastairMeeks said:The next problem with an extension is when it would be sought. The deal is going to need to get a round of approvals. If it is to be approved, it needs to have been agreed months in advance. Christmas is cutting it very fine. But if the hold-up is in not deciding an approval, it's not obvious an extension is going to help.
If the problem is that a necessary approval is outstanding because someone isn't happy, an extension may well not help make that party happy and unanimity for the extension may in any case not be forthcoming, depending on how unhappy that unhappy party is.
(Actually, the Treaty isn't clear whether the QMV is of the 27 states or the full 28. Logically, you'd think it'd exclude the UK but the text refers to the Council, and Britain remains a member of that until it leaves).0 -
So much for Brexit free days...0
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Perhaps proper exposure of how Putin has manipulated our elections and proper counter-measures might be more effective.ydoethur said:
While you are corect about the property of his cronies, to seize private assets we would need to have prima facie evidence of criminal activity. Do we have it? I doubt it.Casino_Royale said:
A load of Putin's mafioso scumbags have money, assets and investments in London.ydoethur said:
Problem isCasino_Royale said:
We won't do anything.CarlottaVance said:
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
If we were like Russia we could brutally torture the Ambassador and his staff to make a point but fortunately we are not so we can't.
Putin does these things because he believes he can get away with them. And the trouble is he's right.
Seize it. Kick them in the balls.
They are the only real ones who can and do influence Putin.
And I'm not keen on making exceptions even for the Russian mafia. Imagine how McDonnell could use such a precedent in his crusade for Chavez stylecrony capitalismSocialism
Unleash the First Battalion of the Royal Brigade of cyber-trolls.0 -
We tried - in between causing global warming, celebrating evil dictators like Churchill, breaking up the Uk and causing the Syrian war.AlastairMeeks said:Leavers have done far more to enable Vladimir Putin's international objectives than anything he himself has done in the last couple of years. Complaining now about an aggressive militaristic power that disregards international norms is self-defeating.
Even the remake of Porridge can be laid at the door of Leave.
0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Yeah, finickity rules are irksome. At least these are known to be finickity, though. *cough*pitlanestart*cough*
F1: testing is underway. Will the McLaren break down? Will Mercedes look depressingly fast? Live feed is here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/432879190 -
But we draw the line at the Dad's Army movie.TGOHF said:
We tried - in between causing global warming, celebrating evil dictators like Churchill, breaking up the Uk and causing the Syrian war.AlastairMeeks said:Leavers have done far more to enable Vladimir Putin's international objectives than anything he himself has done in the last couple of years. Complaining now about an aggressive militaristic power that disregards international norms is self-defeating.
Even the remake of Porridge can be laid at the door of Leave.0 -
If it wasn't that we as a country are now beyond humiliation and have now well and truly scraped the bottom this visit would be the ultimate in international embarrassment.daodao said:
The reaction of BoJo et al is hypocritical - the pot calling the kettle black. All intelligence agencies seek to have their countries' perceived opponents bumped off - some are more effective than others, e.g. Mossad. The British government does it - for example, the death of the lawyer Pat Finucane was no accident. The UK government hardly holds the moral high ground given the royal welcome being given today to one of the world's most malevolent gangsters, Mohammed bin Salman.Casino_Royale said:
We won't do anything.CarlottaVance said:
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
And Putin will continue to murder Russian dissidents in the UK who displease him.
I expect this sort of thing is very popular in Russia, and fits in with his strongman image.
The purest form of justice would be for one his agents to have an accident whilst on holiday in the UK, but that wouldn't be very British.0 -
It did in the 80s. See the Stalker/Sampson inquiry.Casino_Royale said:No country is. But it also doesn't make the grisly murder of its opponents on its own soil or overseas a matter of routine.
0 -
Vladimir Putin has undoubtedly been aided by Leave. Why do you think the Russian trolls are so keen on it?TGOHF said:
We tried - in between causing global warming, celebrating evil dictators like Churchill, breaking up the Uk and causing the Syrian war.AlastairMeeks said:Leavers have done far more to enable Vladimir Putin's international objectives than anything he himself has done in the last couple of years. Complaining now about an aggressive militaristic power that disregards international norms is self-defeating.
Even the remake of Porridge can be laid at the door of Leave.
Vote Leave Avoid Responsibility continues though, I see.0 -
The ousted French head of the LSE......TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I hesitate to call for it and I'm sure there is a good potential retaliation, international law and morality based argument against it... but in conflicts between nations at this level if a foreign power has assassinated someone on our soil it is tempting to call for payment back in kind.
I feel we lack real options to retaliate in any other meaningful way.
0 -
Good question. The Supreme Court ruled that the government couldn't trigger A50 by itself because of the nullifying effect it would - or could - have on so much legislation.AlastairMeeks said:A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?
Would an extension fall foul of the same problem? Possibly. The Act that granted the government the power to trigger A50 was limited in scope. The key clause is this:
"The Prime Minister may notify, under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, the United Kingdom’s intention to withdraw from the EU."
That doesn't say anything about granting the PM the right to extend Britain's membership once A50 is triggered and such an action could in essence nullify the effect of that Act. However, just because that Act doesn't provide for it doesn't mean that the executive's traditional power to make treaties doesn't still apply. After all, unlike triggering A50, requesting an extension would not have any direct effect on any other legislation.
if the government did request an extension, I think it's highly likely there'd be a court case and there are persuadable arguments on both sides. For what it's worth, my opinion would be that the government does have the right to do so without further legislation or even a vote in parliament (though such a vote would be politically advisable), but I'm no lawyer, never mind an expert.0 -
Please don't do this. Rolet built the LSE into an industry titan from when he took over. He did a great job and while I agree his figure is pessimistic, it has nothing to do with his being French or being ousted from the top job at LSE (especially since the number will predate the difficulty he ran into).CarlottaVance said:
The ousted French head of the LSE......TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Yes there is, kick all the Russians out of London. Make them do their laundry somewhere else.TheJezziah said:I hesitate to call for it and I'm sure there is a good potential retaliation, international law and morality based argument against it... but in conflicts between nations at this level if a foreign power has assassinated someone on our soil it is tempting to call for payment back in kind.
I feel we lack real options to retaliate in any other meaningful way.0 -
Oh dear.....someone doesn't know their Frankenstein.....
https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/9711111720858624010 -
We will almost certainly have left the EU by March 29th 2019 when if we remain in the single market and customs union and continue to have free movement until the end of December 2020 due to the transition period0
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Leaving aside the somewhat inaccurate description of Trump, it's not true to say that Obama was the most popular US president. Going by the gallup series, that accolade goes to George W Bush, who hit a 90% approval rating immediately post-9/11 (he also scored one of the lowest approval ratings in history, bottoming out at 25% - only Nixon and Truman have scored worse). By contrast, Obama never received a better than his inaugural rating of 67%. He did do well in avoiding deep negatives, never dropping below 40% - but Kennedy and Eisenhower did better.Roger said:The pendulum is swinging in much greater arcs that it's ever done before. The most charming and popular US President has been replaced by a redneck vulgarian moron.
0 -
Given most Russians live in European Russia perhaps the EU should invite Russia to take Britain's place after Brexit? After all, most of the old Eastern Block is now part of the EU and has just swapped directions from Moscow for directions from BrusselsAlastairMeeks said:Leavers have done far more to enable Vladimir Putin's international objectives than anything he himself has done in the last couple of years. Complaining now about an aggressive militaristic power that disregards international norms is self-defeating.
0 -
A parable for TrumpCarlottaVance said:Oh dear.....someone doesn't know their Frankenstein.....
https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/971111172085862401
0 -
Not while the leave/remain divide is as it is, in terms of party support.DecrepitJohnL said:
Roger might have a point since Conservative governments did join various predecessors to the Euro, so there is no reason to suppose Tory policy can't pivot again.rcs1000 said:
Oxycontin, Tramadol or something stronger?Roger said:The pendulum is swinging in much greater arcs that it's ever done before. The most charming and popular US President has been replaced by a redneck vulgarian moron. Laddish behaviour turned into culture by TV progs and men's mags has done a volte-face into a political correctness that no one in their wildest imagination could have envisaged.
It is impossible for opinion formers-if such people still exist-to have the vaguest idea which way this roller coaster is heading.
The country took a vote in one era and now it's a different one. Only a fool would try to guess what the political mood will be in a years time.Think competely off the wall out of the box left field and you've got as much chance of being correct as anyone else.
I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....0 -
I was talking internationally. I can't think of any President in living memory who had more respect throughout the world or in Trump's case any lessdavid_herdson said:
Leaving aside the somewhat inaccurate description of Trump, it's not true to say that Obama was the most popular US president. Going by the gallup series, that accolade goes to George W Bush, who hit a 90% approval rating immediately post-9/11 (he also scored one of the lowest approval ratings in history, bottoming out at 25% - only Nixon and Truman have scored worse). By contrast, Obama never received a better than his inaugural rating of 67%. He did do well in avoiding deep negatives, never dropping below 40% - but Kennedy and Eisenhower did better.Roger said:The pendulum is swinging in much greater arcs that it's ever done before. The most charming and popular US President has been replaced by a redneck vulgarian moron.
0 -
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It doesn't need seizing as such - not without clear evidence of it being the proceeds of crime. Sanctions to freeze assets would be a healthy start, and perfectly in line with normal practices.ydoethur said:
While you are corect about the property of his cronies, to seize private assets we would need to have prima facie evidence of criminal activity. Do we have it? I doubt it.Casino_Royale said:
A load of Putin's mafioso scumbags have money, assets and investments in London.ydoethur said:
Problem is not whether we should do something but what can we actually do? The reason Miliband didn't do anything drastic is because our options are limited. We can't get at Putin or his acolytes, economic sanctions are already tight and I don't think a war against Russia would help especially since we would have no chance of winning.Casino_Royale said:
We won't do anything.CarlottaVance said:
Probably - but it may be more to do with this:ydoethur said:
Does he mean Chris Bryant?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
If we were like Russia we could brutally torture the Ambassador and his staff to make a point but fortunately we are not so we can't.
Putin does these things because he believes he can get away with them. And the trouble is he's right.
Seize it. Kick them in the balls.
They are the only real ones who can and do influence Putin.
And I'm not keen on making exceptions even for the Russian mafia. Imagine how McDonnell could use such a precedent in his crusade for Chavez stylecrony capitalismSocialism0
