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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 58% chance that Britain WON’T leave the EU o
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 58% chance that Britain WON’T leave the EU on March 29 2019
One thing about being a betting exchange like Betfair is that it has to stand in the middle between those who want to place bets and those who want to lay them. This means that in complex markets, which most political ones are, the rules have to be watertight to ensure that there are no arguments and disputes later.
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Like Remain.
Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....
The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.
https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/971210792413646850?s=20
Leavers: “We tried, so be it, fuck’em”
Assuming there's a deal, putting the actual withdrawal off for a little bit (but not enough to make the leavers feel they were being robbed) seems like a no-brainer, since everybody's shit is very much not yet together.
It is impossible for opinion formers-if such people still exist-to have the vaguest idea which way this roller coaster is heading.
The country took a vote in one era and now it's a different one. Only a fool would try to guess what the political mood will be in a years time.Think competely off the wall out of the box left field and you've got as much chance of being correct as anyone else.
I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....
There is a tendency to make "unanimous" sound like a high hurdle. It's not. "So, would you like the UK to crash out the EU, resulting in a recession and higher payments. Or would you like to agree with me now, on the phone, that we should extend Article 50 by two weeks?"
It's only when the EU has clear procedures that problems arise, because like Article 50 itself they are invariably written by people who would have been out of their intellectual depth running a village shop.
It takes the ECJ months to even agree to hear a case. It would take a year or 18 months before the ECJ opined on whether the extension was legal.
By which point it would be moot.
leaders of Italy’s triumphant conservative alliance have called for a radical change in the EU’s negotiating stance over Brexit, describing threats to restrict trade and punish Britain as ideological idiocy.
I make this a 75%+ shot and would back it accordingly.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy
If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
It wouldn't surprise me if negotiations go on until that crunch meeting in December.
If the problem is that a necessary approval is outstanding because someone isn't happy, an extension may well not help make that party happy and unanimity for the extension may in any case not be forthcoming, depending on how unhappy that unhappy party is.
https://twitter.com/notmyconcern/status/970995572097286144?s=20
But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
Extension likely only if they are running out of time on a technicality.
Punters may like to note they can also bet on the timing of exit in a secondary betfair market, and so can cover themselves on a 3 month delay...
And Putin will continue to murder Russian dissidents in the UK who displease him.
I expect this sort of thing is very popular in Russia, and fits in with his strongman image.
The purest form of justice would be for one his agents to have an accident whilst on holiday in the UK, but that wouldn't be very British.
When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?
If we were like Russia we could brutally torture the Ambassador and his staff to make a point but fortunately we are not so we can't.
Putin does these things because he believes he can get away with them. And the trouble is he's right.
nutterslocal interest groups standing then. (Although I suppose the number of signatures to support your nomination is the constraining factor there?)Seize it. Kick them in the balls.
They are the only real ones who can and do influence Putin.
Yes, the UK Government hasn't been perfect in the past. No country is. But it also doesn't make the grisly murder of its opponents on its own soil or overseas a matter of routine.
Xavier Rolet came up with that figure.
It is based on all jobs going plus all related support/back office/compliance/legal jobs.
However, the much more likely outcome is that it'll be 29 March.
And I'm not keen on making exceptions even for the Russian mafia. Imagine how McDonnell could use such a precedent in his crusade for Chavez style
crony capitalismSocialismOf course, more unionisation of the private sector workforce would improve things further, particularly in respect of the casual and gig economy.
Due to economic prudence (balanced budget, letting the currency go when the oil price fell rather than propping it up, minimal government debt) it is hard to pressure Russia at a macro level. Putin won’t make Eden’s mistake.
(Actually, the Treaty isn't clear whether the QMV is of the 27 states or the full 28. Logically, you'd think it'd exclude the UK but the text refers to the Council, and Britain remains a member of that until it leaves).
Unleash the First Battalion of the Royal Brigade of cyber-trolls.
Even the remake of Porridge can be laid at the door of Leave.
Yeah, finickity rules are irksome. At least these are known to be finickity, though. *cough*pitlanestart*cough*
F1: testing is underway. Will the McLaren break down? Will Mercedes look depressingly fast? Live feed is here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43287919
Vote Leave Avoid Responsibility continues though, I see.
I feel we lack real options to retaliate in any other meaningful way.
Would an extension fall foul of the same problem? Possibly. The Act that granted the government the power to trigger A50 was limited in scope. The key clause is this:
"The Prime Minister may notify, under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, the United Kingdom’s intention to withdraw from the EU."
That doesn't say anything about granting the PM the right to extend Britain's membership once A50 is triggered and such an action could in essence nullify the effect of that Act. However, just because that Act doesn't provide for it doesn't mean that the executive's traditional power to make treaties doesn't still apply. After all, unlike triggering A50, requesting an extension would not have any direct effect on any other legislation.
if the government did request an extension, I think it's highly likely there'd be a court case and there are persuadable arguments on both sides. For what it's worth, my opinion would be that the government does have the right to do so without further legislation or even a vote in parliament (though such a vote would be politically advisable), but I'm no lawyer, never mind an expert.
https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/971111172085862401
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/03/06/the-long-terrifying-history-of-russian-dissidents-being-poisoned-abroad/?utm_term=.bb1896fc604d