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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a second referendum Remain should demand that all voters show visual ID
Financial Times
Comments
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First! Like Leave & Mrs May.....and 'Remain' are in no position to demand anything.....0
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I presume OGH is a little tongue in cheek....or look forward to a day of Remainers crying foul over voter suppression....as OGH explains with disarming clarity.....0
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Haha, I'm assuming the former Carlotta.
Can't be sure but I would like to think that enough people will kick up a fuss about it, as much as partisan advantage comes into play surely at least a few Tory MPs wouldn't be happy to disenfranchise such a large section of the electorate... at least enough to defeat any motion... I hope.0 -
What about the fraction that hold a driver's license?0
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Well done to all those looking at the Italian election on the previous thread. Looking at the map I think it’s fair to say there’s something of a North/South divide in the country.
http://www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/senato.shtml
I guess we now wait for everyone to throw away their manifesto and stitch up a government among themselves, as usually happens with proportional voting systems that don’t deliver a clear verdict.0 -
I think Mike was gently pointing out that a number of those posters keenest on photo ID for voters are the most committed leavers...0
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Looking at what Trump's economic advisers write (in all apparent seriousness), I think a trade war might be inevitable. They claim that VAT represents a trade barrier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a0 -
Mrs May apparently put Trump in his place about the foolishness of starting a trade war, according to the front page of the Times. Let’s hope that his words so far contain enough hot air to run a steel furnace.Nigelb said:Looking at what Trump's economic advisers write (in all apparent seriousness), I think a trade war might be inevitable. They claim that VAT represents a trade barrier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a0 -
Breathalysers at polling stations should be introduced too, since being drunk shifts political opinions to the right.
There are no right answers in the world of politics -– but whether we’re drunk or just pressed for time, the less we think, the further to the right our answers lean.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23631560-800-effortless-thinking-why-were-all-born-to-be-status-quo-fans/
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On topic, I’m not sure that personation at polling stations is a massive problem, but any changes made to the way things work needs very careful consideration and a long implementation period if it is to avoid disenfranchisement.
Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.
The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.0 -
The problem is that the M5S could become identified as the party of the South, thus excluding any deal with the Lega that is still considered anti-South by many southern Italians.Sandpit said:Well done to all those looking at the Italian election on the previous thread. Looking at the map I think it’s fair to say there’s something of a North/South divide in the country.
http://www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/senato.shtml
I guess we now wait for everyone to throw away their manifesto and stitch up a government among themselves, as usually happens with proportional voting systems that don’t deliver a clear verdict.
The other problem is that all EU leaders wanted a deal between the centre-left and the most reasonable part of the right (PD, Forza Italia, +Europa, Noi con Italia) and they won't get nearly enough seats.0 -
I think you're way too sanguine. There are too many around him telling him it's no big deal, and he campaigned extensively on it. There is some talk of 'exemptions' - which again would appeal to Trump's instincts for 'doing a deal'.Sandpit said:
Mrs May apparently put Trump in his place about the foolishness of starting a trade war, according to the front page of the Times. Let’s hope that his words so far contain enough hot air to run a steel furnace.Nigelb said:Looking at what Trump's economic advisers write (in all apparent seriousness), I think a trade war might be inevitable. They claim that VAT represents a trade barrier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/04/trump-navarro-trade-tariffs-exemptions-434909
The VAT thing from his advisers actually shocked me. I'm not saying a trade war is overwhelmingly likely, but this could get of out control quite easily.0 -
Yes, this could be serious. Navarro, his economic advisor on this is in the ascendancy, and Trump himself has been complaining about unfair foreign trade and the need for protectionism for decades -- long before he ran for president.Nigelb said:
I think you're way too sanguine. There are too many around him telling him it's no big deal, and he campaigned extensively on it. There is some talk of 'exemptions' - which again would appeal to Trump's instincts for 'doing a deal'.Sandpit said:
Mrs May apparently put Trump in his place about the foolishness of starting a trade war, according to the front page of the Times. Let’s hope that his words so far contain enough hot air to run a steel furnace.Nigelb said:Looking at what Trump's economic advisers write (in all apparent seriousness), I think a trade war might be inevitable. They claim that VAT represents a trade barrier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/04/trump-navarro-trade-tariffs-exemptions-434909
The VAT thing from his advisers actually shocked me. I'm not saying a trade war is overwhelmingly likely, but this could get of out control quite easily.0 -
M5S have said they will not be junior partners in any coalition, so it's not clear what government is possible.Chris_from_Paris said:
The problem is that the M5S could become identified as the party of the South, thus excluding any deal with the Lega that is still considered anti-South by many southern Italians.Sandpit said:Well done to all those looking at the Italian election on the previous thread. Looking at the map I think it’s fair to say there’s something of a North/South divide in the country.
http://www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/senato.shtml
I guess we now wait for everyone to throw away their manifesto and stitch up a government among themselves, as usually happens with proportional voting systems that don’t deliver a clear verdict.
The other problem is that all EU leaders wanted a deal between the centre-left and the most reasonable part of the right (PD, Forza Italia, +Europa, Noi con Italia) and they won't get nearly enough seats.0 -
Switzerland: strong currency, lots of regulations, no tariffs on goods from EU or ChinaDecrepitJohnL said:
Yes, this could be serious. Navarro, his economic advisor on this is in the ascendancy, and Trump himself has been complaining about unfair foreign trade and the need for protectionism for decades -- long before he ran for president.Nigelb said:
I think you're way too sanguine. There are too many around him telling him it's no big deal, and he campaigned extensively on it. There is some talk of 'exemptions' - which again would appeal to Trump's instincts for 'doing a deal'.Sandpit said:
Mrs May apparently put Trump in his place about the foolishness of starting a trade war, according to the front page of the Times. Let’s hope that his words so far contain enough hot air to run a steel furnace.Nigelb said:Looking at what Trump's economic advisers write (in all apparent seriousness), I think a trade war might be inevitable. They claim that VAT represents a trade barrier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/04/trump-navarro-trade-tariffs-exemptions-434909
The VAT thing from his advisers actually shocked me. I'm not saying a trade war is overwhelmingly likely, but this could get of out control quite easily.
USA: not so strong currency, more free market, plenty of tariffs on goods from EU and China
Which one has the big trade surplus, and which one the big deficit?
A country's trade deficit (or surplus) is a consequence of its savings rate, not its tariff schedule.0 -
I think you will find that re-registration and individual registration were not to prevent fraud but because Cameron and Osborne calculated it would help the Conservative Party. On the other hand, postal voting, despite the image of hundreds of fictitious Labour voters crammed into one-room flats, is generally believed to benefit the Conservatives most (older voters!). Making election day a public holiday on a Friday would probably help Labour if the more affluent take the opportunity of the long weekend to go skiing in Tuscany.Sandpit said:On topic, I’m not sure that personation at polling stations is a massive problem, but any changes made to the way things work needs very careful consideration and a long implementation period if it is to avoid disenfranchisement.
Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.
The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.0 -
Tell that to Mr Trump. Or pray that the free markets wing of the GOP does.rcs1000 said:
Switzerland: strong currency, lots of regulations, no tariffs on goods from EU or ChinaDecrepitJohnL said:
Yes, this could be serious. Navarro, his economic advisor on this is in the ascendancy, and Trump himself has been complaining about unfair foreign trade and the need for protectionism for decades -- long before he ran for president.Nigelb said:
I think you're way too sanguine. There are too many around him telling him it's no big deal, and he campaigned extensively on it. There is some talk of 'exemptions' - which again would appeal to Trump's instincts for 'doing a deal'.Sandpit said:
Mrs May apparently put Trump in his place about the foolishness of starting a trade war, according to the front page of the Times. Let’s hope that his words so far contain enough hot air to run a steel furnace.Nigelb said:Looking at what Trump's economic advisers write (in all apparent seriousness), I think a trade war might be inevitable. They claim that VAT represents a trade barrier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/04/trump-navarro-trade-tariffs-exemptions-434909
The VAT thing from his advisers actually shocked me. I'm not saying a trade war is overwhelmingly likely, but this could get of out control quite easily.
USA: not so strong currency, more free market, plenty of tariffs on goods from EU and China
Which one has the big trade surplus, and which one the big deficit?
A country's trade deficit (or surplus) is a consequence of its savings rate, not its tariff schedule.0 -
So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself0 -
Can you ski in Tuscany?DecrepitJohnL said:
I think you will find that re-registration and individual registration were not to prevent fraud but because Cameron and Osborne calculated it would help the Conservative Party. On the other hand, postal voting, despite the image of hundreds of fictitious Labour voters crammed into one-room flats, is generally believed to benefit the Conservatives most (older voters!). Making election day a public holiday on a Friday would probably help Labour if the more affluent take the opportunity of the long weekend to go skiing in Tuscany.Sandpit said:On topic, I’m not sure that personation at polling stations is a massive problem, but any changes made to the way things work needs very careful consideration and a long implementation period if it is to avoid disenfranchisement.
Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.
The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.0 -
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So the different wings of the Remain campaign had previously both disenfranchised different parts of their electorate to screw each other.
The Tories did their best to kick young people off the register, as described by @DecrepidJohnL, and Labour took away the votes of people who lived outside the UK for more than 15 years, who were assumed to go disproportionately Tory.0 -
There is no photo on my driving licence. I assume I will need one when I turn 70.RobD said:What about the fraction that hold a driver's license?
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M. Quatremer keeps digging:
http://www.liberation.fr/planete/2018/03/04/martin-selmayr-braque-la-commission-europeenne_1633807?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1520193810
Selmayr veut imposer le Français Michel Barnier- dont il a fait le négociateur du Brexit -, comme tête de liste du PPE, ce qui lui garantira la présidence de la Commission, les conservateurs ayant toutes les chances d’arriver en tête aux élections de 2019. Pour lui, Barnier est le candidat idéal, car il est «Macron-compatible», mais aussi parce qu’il le considère comme faible et malléable.
https://tinyurl.com/selmayrgate
Edit - I'm astonished this hasn't had more coverage in the UK - its got 'classic Brussels scandal' written all over it with a cast list bursting with stock villains....0 -
If there's another referendum, Leave should demand that all Remain voters don't get a vote.
You are already on the wrong side of which type of Brexit we sign up to. By voting not to have any.
Cake and eat it, Remainers?0 -
https://www.onthesnow.co.uk/tuscany/skireport.htmlrcs1000 said:
Can you ski in Tuscany?DecrepitJohnL said:
I think you will find that re-registration and individual registration were not to prevent fraud but because Cameron and Osborne calculated it would help the Conservative Party. On the other hand, postal voting, despite the image of hundreds of fictitious Labour voters crammed into one-room flats, is generally believed to benefit the Conservatives most (older voters!). Making election day a public holiday on a Friday would probably help Labour if the more affluent take the opportunity of the long weekend to go skiing in Tuscany.Sandpit said:On topic, I’m not sure that personation at polling stations is a massive problem, but any changes made to the way things work needs very careful consideration and a long implementation period if it is to avoid disenfranchisement.
Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.
The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.0 -
And can you do it in May, when most elections are held?MarqueeMark said:
https://www.onthesnow.co.uk/tuscany/skireport.htmlrcs1000 said:
Can you ski in Tuscany?DecrepitJohnL said:
I think you will find that re-registration and individual registration were not to prevent fraud but because Cameron and Osborne calculated it would help the Conservative Party. On the other hand, postal voting, despite the image of hundreds of fictitious Labour voters crammed into one-room flats, is generally believed to benefit the Conservatives most (older voters!). Making election day a public holiday on a Friday would probably help Labour if the more affluent take the opportunity of the long weekend to go skiing in Tuscany.Sandpit said:On topic, I’m not sure that personation at polling stations is a massive problem, but any changes made to the way things work needs very careful consideration and a long implementation period if it is to avoid disenfranchisement.
Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.
The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.0 -
I still think it's just talk. He's had over a year - he could have done this already.Nigelb said:
I think you're way too sanguine. There are too many around him telling him it's no big deal, and he campaigned extensively on it. There is some talk of 'exemptions' - which again would appeal to Trump's instincts for 'doing a deal'.Sandpit said:
Mrs May apparently put Trump in his place about the foolishness of starting a trade war, according to the front page of the Times. Let’s hope that his words so far contain enough hot air to run a steel furnace.Nigelb said:Looking at what Trump's economic advisers write (in all apparent seriousness), I think a trade war might be inevitable. They claim that VAT represents a trade barrier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/04/trump-navarro-trade-tariffs-exemptions-434909
The VAT thing from his advisers actually shocked me. I'm not saying a trade war is overwhelmingly likely, but this could get of out control quite easily.
And if he does actually do something- it will become obvious fairly quickly that it's a bad idea.
He might even unite Republicans and Democrats in Congress on something!
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The skiing was probably quite good in Tuscany in February 1974.not_on_fire said:
And can you do it in May, when most elections are held?MarqueeMark said:
https://www.onthesnow.co.uk/tuscany/skireport.htmlrcs1000 said:
Can you ski in Tuscany?DecrepitJohnL said:
I think you will find that re-registration and individual registration were not to prevent fraud but because Cameron and Osborne calculated it would help the Conservative Party. On the other hand, postal voting, despite the image of hundreds of fictitious Labour voters crammed into one-room flats, is generally believed to benefit the Conservatives most (older voters!). Making election day a public holiday on a Friday would probably help Labour if the more affluent take the opportunity of the long weekend to go skiing in Tuscany.Sandpit said:On topic, I’m not sure that personation at polling stations is a massive problem, but any changes made to the way things work needs very careful consideration and a long implementation period if it is to avoid disenfranchisement.
Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.
The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.
Must explain why Ted Heath lost.....0 -
Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.Charles said:So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself0 -
I consider a second referendum should be granted but only following certain preconditions :
1. Burnley FC win the Champions League
2. All male voters to remove their toupee at the polling station.
3. Bedford voters to consume a pineapple pizza at the polling station.
4. LibDem party members to kiss a portrait of Nigel Farage
5. Vince Cable to personally place a "winning here" placard on the moon
6. All voters to abjure the bar charts and sandals0 -
Good luck with that argument in another referendum, that we need to stay because it’s too difficult to leave...SquareRoot said:
Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.Charles said:So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself0 -
Its not an argument, its just a statement of facts. Leave it is going to be and the Country is going to suffer for it. I accept the result however much I dislike it.Sandpit said:
Good luck with that argument in another referendum, that we need to stay because it’s too difficult to leave...SquareRoot said:
Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.Charles said:So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself0 -
It would at least go down better than you were tricked...Sandpit said:
Good luck with that argument in another referendum, that we need to stay because it’s too difficult to leave...SquareRoot said:
Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.Charles said:So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself
I think a soft Brexit is remainers best chance, wouldn't completely rule out a referendum but something needs to happen to get us there... something more than just Corbyn deciding it but a shift in public opinion for some reason.0 -
Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?0
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They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
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Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)SquareRoot said:
Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.Charles said:So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself
But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.0 -
I’m listening to a rather fine rendition of the Duke of Plaza-Toro in recognition of thisAlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
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No great surprises (or money-making opportunities) at the Oscars.
Well done though, Jet-ski Guy.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/05/entertainment/jet-ski-winner-oscars-mark-bridges/index.html0 -
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.0 -
As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."rcs1000 said:
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.0 -
On that theme, an instructive thread:MarqueeMark said:
As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."rcs1000 said:
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.
https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=210 -
True.MarqueeMark said:
As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."rcs1000 said:
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.
Still can't see it.0 -
The funny bit about the election results is that those who campaigned against the Constitutional changes would have been those who most benefited from them.0
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London Mayoral election would seem the ideal one to insist on photo ID and a doctors line for a postal vote.
We’d get the result a lot earlier too.0 -
Both the League (but not Silvio's outfit) and Five Star appear to have over-performed expectations and must have some moral claim to be the winners. Particularly since, as I understand it, the electoral system was designed to under-represent M5S, yet they are still the largest party.rcs1000 said:
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.0 -
The incredibly complicated voting system designed by PD an FI to keep M5S out has jbadly misfired for both of them. The PD is only winning a handful of FPTP seats and Forza Italia was the weakest partner in the centre-right coalition.rcs1000 said:The funny bit about the election results is that those who campaigned against the Constitutional changes would have been those who most benefited from them.
0 -
Maybe the UK press are starting to pay attention.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/970558009238872064?s=20
Guardian usually very hot on malfeasance in high places and possible corruption....funny that....0 -
A "technical" non-political government could work but it would be a very temporary solution.rcs1000 said:
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.
If it sticks to EU mainstream policy it could boost even more the M5S and Lega.
The only good news from these results is that Berlusconi might finally retire.0 -
Has there been any movement in the odds on another referendum since Friday ?0
-
Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.Charles said:
Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)SquareRoot said:
Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.Charles said:So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself
But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.
0 -
Very well done.AlastairMeeks said:
On that theme, an instructive thread:MarqueeMark said:
As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."rcs1000 said:
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.
https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.
But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!0 -
-
As we keep hearing - we haven’t left yet...Gardenwalker said:
Very well done.AlastairMeeks said:
On that theme, an instructive thread:MarqueeMark said:
As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."rcs1000 said:
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.
https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.
But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!0 -
Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.0
-
Certainly it was hard to believe that Berlusconi was about to reacquire power at the head (outside parliament) of his new coalition, as some media commentators were predicting. That would have been a very sad comment on Italy. Voters do appear at leasr to have rejected his part of the coalition.Chris_from_Paris said:
A "technical" non-political government could work but it would be a very temporary solution.rcs1000 said:
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.
If it sticks to EU mainstream policy it could boost even more the M5S and Lega.
The only good news from these results is that Berlusconi might finally retire.0 -
Of course all of Remain’s claims were beyond reproach.....Gardenwalker said:
Very well done.AlastairMeeks said:
On that theme, an instructive thread:MarqueeMark said:
As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."rcs1000 said:
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.
https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.
But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!
0 -
You are misinterpreting. In my views leavers were motivated by philosophy ; Remainers by base greed. We are clearly higher up the hierarchy of needsTOPPING said:
Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.Charles said:
Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)SquareRoot said:
Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.Charles said:So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself
But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.0 -
If you haven't quite grasped how much of the Brexit vote was the ultimate fu to politicians of all stripes you haven't been paying attention.TOPPING said:
Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.Charles said:
Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)SquareRoot said:
Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.Charles said:So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself
But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.
0 -
The Carswell bit was weapons grade cringe.Gardenwalker said:
Very well done.AlastairMeeks said:
On that theme, an instructive thread:MarqueeMark said:
As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."rcs1000 said:
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.
https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.
But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!
Mrs. DA just asked me to peel some potatoes. I told her I was executing 'ambitious managed divergence' from her meal plan but it didn't work.0 -
But we haven't left yet.CarlottaVance said:
Of course all of Remain’s claims were beyond reproach.....Gardenwalker said:
Very well done.AlastairMeeks said:
On that theme, an instructive thread:MarqueeMark said:
As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."rcs1000 said:
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.
https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.
But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!
It is only the claims for the immediate effects of the vote that are empirically verifiable
Oh........0 -
The Italy News in English site looks up to date and has a lot of news and latest commentary.DavidL said:Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.
https://www.thelocal.it/
0 -
As you've rightly recognised since the vote, the only pertinent fact is that the economy has not tanked.Gardenwalker said:
Very well done.AlastairMeeks said:
On that theme, an instructive thread:MarqueeMark said:
As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."rcs1000 said:
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.
https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.
But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!
The impression that all Remain had was project fear, a frequent claim Leave made during the ref., is a huge plus for Leave.
Another referendum now (not that there would be one) would be done on the backdrop of knowing that voting to Leave will not crash the economy or house prices.0 -
The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.DavidL said:Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.
Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.
Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).
Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.0 -
No, We are discussing sense and lack of it. Leave is the Black Knight.Charles said:
You are misinterpreting. In my views leavers were motivated by philosophy ; Remainers by base greed. We are clearly higher up the hierarchy of needsTOPPING said:
Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.Charles said:
Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)SquareRoot said:
Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.Charles said:So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself
But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.0 -
You should have said you'd already had a conscious uncoupling with the potato peeler.Dura_Ace said:
The Carswell bit was weapons grade cringe.Gardenwalker said:
Very well done.AlastairMeeks said:
On that theme, an instructive thread:MarqueeMark said:
As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."rcs1000 said:
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.
https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.
But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!
Mrs. DA just asked me to peel some potatoes. I told her I was executing 'ambitious managed divergence' from her meal plan but it didn't work.0 -
Thanks.IanB2 said:
The Italy News in English site looks up to date and has a lot of news and latest commentary.DavidL said:Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.
https://www.thelocal.it/
It seems to me that there are 2 scenarios here. The first is that Italy will simply fail to have an operating government for the remainder of the Brexit process and will play no effective part.
The alternative is that they get a Eurosceptic government who will disrupt the EU27 line somewhat. Whether that will be an advantage or disadvantage probably depends on how close we are to getting the sort of deal that May set out on Friday.
The former seems the most likely (and probably the safest for us).0 -
You quite clearly were saying that Leavers should have done their homework and didn’t.Charles said:
You are misinterpreting. In my views leavers were motivated by philosophy ; Remainers by base greed. We are clearly higher up the hierarchy of needsTOPPING said:
Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.Charles said:
Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)SquareRoot said:
Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.Charles said:So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself
But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.
0 -
Excellent summary.MaxPB said:
The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.DavidL said:Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.
Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.
Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).
Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.
You only missed out "And Brussels is going "oh bugger...."0 -
It has always been my view.eek said:
If you haven't quite grasped how much of the Brexit vote was the ultimate fu to politicians of all stripes you haven't been paying attention.TOPPING said:
Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.Charles said:
Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)SquareRoot said:
Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.Charles said:So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself
But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.0 -
Backed Tajani £5, laid Gentiloni to £10 stake so hopefully a fiver up0
-
Like Germany???MaxPB said:
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).0 -
That if Remain lost, they would use the EU playbook - and get us to vote and vote and vote until we Remained.Gardenwalker said:
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.
That looks pretty much spot on from where I am.
0 -
Well it seems as though parties in favour of the EU are on about 35%, parties against are on about 35% and 5* are on about 30% but they are on the sceptic side of the fence, but fall short of calling for withdrawal or a referendum.MarqueeMark said:
Excellent summary.MaxPB said:
The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.DavidL said:Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.
Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.
Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).
Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.
You only missed out "And Brussels is going "oh bugger...."
As far as the EU goes, it's not a good night when the two out and out pro EU parties have scored 21% between them (PD and +E). Every other party has various levels scepiticsm, none are what we would think of as pro-EU.0 -
Your taunts are just a flesh wound.SquareRoot said:
No, We are discussing sense and lack of it. Leave is the Black Knight.Charles said:
You are misinterpreting. In my views leavers were motivated by philosophy ; Remainers by base greed. We are clearly higher up the hierarchy of needsTOPPING said:
Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.Charles said:
Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)SquareRoot said:
Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.Charles said:So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself
But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.0 -
A last ditch grand coalition which is going to decimate the SPD and see AfD become the official opposition and probably come second at the next election.edmundintokyo said:
Like Germany???MaxPB said:
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).0 -
I don't understand the need to put in place draconian measures to avoid personification. As has been pointed out the major potential weakness areas are registration and, perhaps postal voting (although the latter is largely a consequence of the former). Basically "fake" voters. Also possibly student voters voting twice (which postal voting has made easy, and many don't think they're doing anything wrong.
Personification on any widespread scale would never succeed because it will become obvious - too many stories will come out of people complaining that they haven't been able to vote because somebody has already voted in their place.0 -
Unchecked immigration into the EU, and then between EU states, is causing the EU's death by a thousand cuts.MaxPB said:
Well it seems as though parties in favour of the EU are on about 35%, parties against are on about 35% and 5* are on about 30% but they are on the sceptic side of the fence, but fall short of calling for withdrawal or a referendum.MarqueeMark said:
Excellent summary.MaxPB said:
The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.DavidL said:Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.
Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.
Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).
Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.
You only missed out "And Brussels is going "oh bugger...."
As far as the EU goes, it's not a good night when the two out and out pro EU parties have scored 21% between them (PD and +E). Every other party has various levels scepiticsm, none are what we would think of as pro-EU.0 -
DavidL said:
Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.
The centre-left is the biggest loser. It lost more than 6 points compared to 2013. It's even worse compared to the last European elections (-17 points) and considering that since 2013 the pro-Europe centrist coalition of Monti (more than 10% in 2013) has disappeared.
It only stays strong in some urban areas and in the traditional red provinces (Toscana, Marche, Umbria).
Renzi's career seems finished and Gentiloni's hope to stay on seems doomed by the terrible PD score.
The centre-right did much better than in 2013, with a gain of 8 points. However the internal balance of the coalition has totally changed: the Lega was almost dead in 2013 with 4% but is now the third largest single party in the country with 18%. Neo-fascist Fratelli d'Italia doubled its score from 2 to 4%. Opposingly, Berlusconi's Forza Italia lost 8 points.
In terms of geography the League swept the North as expected but did actually quite well even in Central Italy.
The problem for the coalition is that Berlusconi's party was not able to be competitive against the M5S in the South, as the left collapsed.
The M5S progressed a bit less (+6.5 points) but is now by far the biggest single party, built on a vgood performance in the North and Centre (20/25%) and a landslide in the South.
One point of interest to me is that the extremely high scores of M5S in Napoli, Sicily and Calabria seem to indicate that traditional local powers have assented to their victory. It will be interesting to see how their inexeperienced MPs resist (or not) the inevitable pressures of organized crime.
0 -
To your predictable glee.MaxPB said:
A last ditch grand coalition which is going to decimate the SPD and see AfD become the official opposition and probably come second at the next election.edmundintokyo said:
Like Germany???MaxPB said:
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).
0 -
I'm struggling to find anything on the BBC website on the Italian election.
It's just wall-to-wall luvvie Oscars sanctimony.0 -
Your argument is simply “Leave voters are stupid”.TOPPING said:
You quite clearly were saying that Leavers should have done their homework and didn’t.Charles said:
You are misinterpreting. In my views leavers were motivated by philosophy ; Remainers by base greed. We are clearly higher up the hierarchy of needsTOPPING said:
Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.Charles said:
Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)SquareRoot said:
Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.Charles said:So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself
But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.
My view is that voters take politicians’ words as one input but cast their vote based on a range of inputs, many of which are intuitive.
You can’t say “X lied. Therefore the result is invalid”. Because you can’t prove that X impacted the outcome0 -
On one view it is almost the reverse. Italy as a front line state has had over 600k immigrants from Africa and damn little help or support from the rest of the EU. The EU's attempt to share the load failed abysmally and left Italy in the firing line. Whatever government they get is going to be under huge pressure to mass export economic refugees back to Africa on a scale and summary manner that is going to appal many EU countries who did not help.MarqueeMark said:
Unchecked immigration into the EU, and then between EU states, is causing the EU's death by a thousand cuts.MaxPB said:
Well it seems as though parties in favour of the EU are on about 35%, parties against are on about 35% and 5* are on about 30% but they are on the sceptic side of the fence, but fall short of calling for withdrawal or a referendum.MarqueeMark said:
Excellent summary.MaxPB said:
The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.DavidL said:
Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.
Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).
Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.
You only missed out "And Brussels is going "oh bugger...."
As far as the EU goes, it's not a good night when the two out and out pro EU parties have scored 21% between them (PD and +E). Every other party has various levels scepiticsm, none are what we would think of as pro-EU.0 -
According to latest projections, Five Star plus any one of Lega, PD or Forza Italia have the numbers to govern.
What about a Five Star minority administration propped up by PD?0 -
No glee at all, I think the CDU should have dumped Merkel and gone back to the public, then a Union+FDP coalition would probably have just about been enough. Merkel is the problem, AfD are just a symptom of her awful policies.Gardenwalker said:
To your predictable glee.MaxPB said:
A last ditch grand coalition which is going to decimate the SPD and see AfD become the official opposition and probably come second at the next election.edmundintokyo said:
Like Germany???MaxPB said:
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).0 -
Not as good as elsewhere, but it is thereCasino_Royale said:I'm struggling to find anything on the BBC website on the Italian election.
It's just wall-to-wall luvvie Oscars sanctimony.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-432727000 -
My understanding of the reasons behind IVR was that it followed on from the court cases in Tower Hamlets and elsewhere, where there was indeed significant evidence of more names on the electoral roll in certain properties than could possibly have actually lived there. In TH they weren’t Labour voters. I’m in favour of only giving postal votes to people who are housebound or out of the country on polling day, but also in favour of anything that increases turnout in general.DecrepitJohnL said:
I think you will find that re-registration and individual registration were not to prevent fraud but because Cameron and Osborne calculated it would help the Conservative Party. On the other hand, postal voting, despite the image of hundreds of fictitious Labour voters crammed into one-room flats, is generally believed to benefit the Conservatives most (older voters!). Making election day a public holiday on a Friday would probably help Labour if the more affluent take the opportunity of the long weekend to go skiing in Tuscany.Sandpit said:On topic, I’m not sure that personation at polling stations is a massive problem, but any changes made to the way things work needs very careful consideration and a long implementation period if it is to avoid disenfranchisement.
Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.
The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.
As I said, it’s really important that any process that leads to a change in rules is seen to be impartial, ask Nick Clegg what happens if you’re seen to be trying to change the system for nakedly partisan reasons.0 -
Thanks. The most comprehensive exposition I have found so far.Chris_from_Paris said:DavidL said:Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.
The centre-left is the biggest loser. It lost more than 6 points compared to 2013. It's even worse compared to the last European elections (-17 points) and considering that since 2013 the pro-Europe centrist coalition of Monti (more than 10% in 2013) has disappeared.
It only stays strong in some urban areas and in the traditional red provinces (Toscana, Marche, Umbria).
Renzi's career seems finished and Gentiloni's hope to stay on seems doomed by the terrible PD score.
The centre-right did much better than in 2013, with a gain of 8 points. However the internal balance of the coalition has totally changed: the Lega was almost dead in 2013 with 4% but is now the third largest single party in the country with 18%. Neo-fascist Fratelli d'Italia doubled its score from 2 to 4%. Opposingly, Berlusconi's Forza Italia lost 8 points.
In terms of geography the League swept the North as expected but did actually quite well even in Central Italy.
The problem for the coalition is that Berlusconi's party was not able to be competitive against the M5S in the South, as the left collapsed.
The M5S progressed a bit less (+6.5 points) but is now by far the biggest single party, built on a vgood performance in the North and Centre (20/25%) and a landslide in the South.
One point of interest to me is that the extremely high scores of M5S in Napoli, Sicily and Calabria seem to indicate that traditional local powers have assented to their victory. It will be interesting to see how their inexeperienced MPs resist (or not) the inevitable pressures of organized crime.0 -
You don't get to be a populist movement and then get into bed with PD or FI. They would lose way too much support. The only viable coalition is Lega plus 5*, but even that seems unlikely.Gardenwalker said:According to latest projections, Five Star plus any one of Lega, PD or Forza Italia have the numbers to govern.
What about a Five Star minority administration propped up by PD?0 -
Oh I don't know, we had a good try in June 2017... ..MaxPB said:
The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.DavidL said:Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.
Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.
Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).
Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.0 -
The first step should be landing rescued migrants back on the Libyan coast, in an EU funded refugee camp. There could be an asylum office as part of the facilities.DavidL said:
On one view it is almost the reverse. Italy as a front line state has had over 600k immigrants from Africa and damn little help or support from the rest of the EU. The EU's attempt to share the load failed abysmally and left Italy in the firing line. Whatever government they get is going to be under huge pressure to mass export economic refugees back to Africa on a scale and summary manner that is going to appal many EU countries who did not help.MarqueeMark said:
Unchecked immigration into the EU, and then between EU states, is causing the EU's death by a thousand cuts.MaxPB said:
Well it seems as though parties in favour of the EU are on about 35%, parties against are on about 35% and 5* are on about 30% but they are on the sceptic side of the fence, but fall short of calling for withdrawal or a referendum.MarqueeMark said:
Excellent summary.MaxPB said:
The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.DavidL said:
Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.
Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).
Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.
You only missed out "And Brussels is going "oh bugger...."
As far as the EU goes, it's not a good night when the two out and out pro EU parties have scored 21% between them (PD and +E). Every other party has various levels scepiticsm, none are what we would think of as pro-EU.
Granting effective right to remain in Europe as soon as a toe touches European soil is the root of the problem.0 -
Stop wriggling. You said it was up to Voters to discern whether politicians were lying via due diligence which Leave voters had not done. It wasn’t me who said they were stupid, it was you.Charles said:
Your argument is simply “Leave voters are stupid”.TOPPING said:
You quite clearly were saying that Leavers should have done their homework and didn’t.Charles said:
You are misinterpreting. In my views leavers were motivated by philosophy ; Remainers by base greed. We are clearly higher up the hierarchy of needsTOPPING said:
Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.Charles said:
Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)SquareRoot said:
Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.Charles said:So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself
But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.
My view is that voters take politicians’ words as one input but cast their vote based on a range of inputs, many of which are intuitive.
You can’t say “X lied. Therefore the result is invalid”. Because you can’t prove that X impacted the outcome0 -
Salvini most likely PM ?0
-
Not what you said...MaxPB said:
A last ditch grand coalition which is going to decimate the SPD and see AfD become the official opposition and probably come second at the next election.edmundintokyo said:
Like Germany???MaxPB said:
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).0 -
Merkel said "come to the EU, we'll let you in..." It was a unilateral declaration, but the EU did nothing to rein her in and say "Hang on a minute..." Not all by any means, but a chunk of the 600k from Africa took Merkel at her word.DavidL said:
On one view it is almost the reverse. Italy as a front line state has had over 600k immigrants from Africa and damn little help or support from the rest of the EU. The EU's attempt to share the load failed abysmally and left Italy in the firing line. Whatever government they get is going to be under huge pressure to mass export economic refugees back to Africa on a scale and summary manner that is going to appal many EU countries who did not help.MarqueeMark said:
Unchecked immigration into the EU, and then between EU states, is causing the EU's death by a thousand cuts.MaxPB said:
Well it seems as though parties in favour of the EU are on about 35%, parties against are on about 35% and 5* are on about 30% but they are on the sceptic side of the fence, but fall short of calling for withdrawal or a referendum.MarqueeMark said:
Excellent summary.MaxPB said:
The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.DavidL said:
Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.
Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).
Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.
You only missed out "And Brussels is going "oh bugger...."
As far as the EU goes, it's not a good night when the two out and out pro EU parties have scored 21% between them (PD and +E). Every other party has various levels scepiticsm, none are what we would think of as pro-EU.
The new Italian government should encourage them to onward transit to Germany. And every one of the other EU countries should say that is as far as they go in the EU. Problem belong Merkel.0 -
Front page story...Casino_Royale said:I'm struggling to find anything on the BBC website on the Italian election.
It's just wall-to-wall luvvie Oscars sanctimony.
Italy election: Populist surge prompts political deadlock - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-432727000 -
That made me laugh. Thank goodness. Come the revolution I can't decide whether Cameron should face the firing squad first or Farage.Dura_Ace said:
The Carswell bit was weapons grade cringe.Gardenwalker said:
Very well done.AlastairMeeks said:
On that theme, an instructive thread:MarqueeMark said:
As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."rcs1000 said:
The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.MarqueeMark said:
They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....AlastairMeeks said:Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.
https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.
But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!
Mrs. DA just asked me to peel some potatoes. I told her I was executing 'ambitious managed divergence' from her meal plan but it didn't work.0 -
Nothing a billion quid couldn't sort out. (None of which has yet been drawn down - bargain!)OchEye said:
Oh I don't know, we had a good try in June 2017... ..MaxPB said:
The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.DavidL said:Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.
Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.
Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).
Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.0 -
Becoming junior partners to M5S would be a suicide for the PD. Remember that it thinks of itself as the heir of the two largest post-WW2 parties (Communist Party and Christian Democracy) and sees itself (and is seen in Brussels) as the natural party of government.MaxPB said:
You don't get to be a populist movement and then get into bed with PD or FI. They would lose way too much support. The only viable coalition is Lega plus 5*, but even that seems unlikely.Gardenwalker said:According to latest projections, Five Star plus any one of Lega, PD or Forza Italia have the numbers to govern.
What about a Five Star minority administration propped up by PD?
Their only hope now seems to become a strong opposition to whatever government comes up, and especially to M5S. However their last minute scare campaign against a M5S/Lega givernment did not work this time.0
