politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a second referendum Remain should demand that all

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a second referendum Remain should demand that all voters show visual ID

Financial Times

Read the full story here

CarlottaVance

First! Like Leave & Mrs May.....and 'Remain' are in no position to demand anything.....

CarlottaVance

I presume OGH is a little tongue in cheek....or look forward to a day of Remainers crying foul over voter suppression....as OGH explains with disarming clarity.....

TheJezziah

Haha, I'm assuming the former Carlotta.

Can't be sure but I would like to think that enough people will kick up a fuss about it, as much as partisan advantage comes into play surely at least a few Tory MPs wouldn't be happy to disenfranchise such a large section of the electorate... at least enough to defeat any motion... I hope.

RobD

What about the fraction that hold a driver's license?

Sandpit

Well done to all those looking at the Italian election on the previous thread. Looking at the map I think it’s fair to say there’s something of a North/South divide in the country.
http://www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/senato.shtml

I guess we now wait for everyone to throw away their manifesto and stitch up a government among themselves, as usually happens with proportional voting systems that don’t deliver a clear verdict.

Nigelb

I think Mike was gently pointing out that a number of those posters keenest on photo ID for voters are the most committed leavers...

Nigelb

Looking at what Trump's economic advisers write (in all apparent seriousness), I think a trade war might be inevitable. They claim that VAT represents a trade barrier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a

Sandpit

Nigelb said:

Looking at what Trump's economic advisers write (in all apparent seriousness), I think a trade war might be inevitable. They claim that VAT represents a trade barrier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a

Mrs May apparently put Trump in his place about the foolishness of starting a trade war, according to the front page of the Times. Let’s hope that his words so far contain enough hot air to run a steel furnace.

DecrepitJohnL

Breathalysers at polling stations should be introduced too, since being drunk shifts political opinions to the right.

There are no right answers in the world of politics -– but whether we’re drunk or just pressed for time, the less we think, the further to the right our answers lean.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23631560-800-effortless-thinking-why-were-all-born-to-be-status-quo-fans/

Sandpit

On topic, I’m not sure that personation at polling stations is a massive problem, but any changes made to the way things work needs very careful consideration and a long implementation period if it is to avoid disenfranchisement.

Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.

The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.

Chris_from_Paris

Sandpit said:

Well done to all those looking at the Italian election on the previous thread. Looking at the map I think it’s fair to say there’s something of a North/South divide in the country.
http://www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/senato.shtml

I guess we now wait for everyone to throw away their manifesto and stitch up a government among themselves, as usually happens with proportional voting systems that don’t deliver a clear verdict.

The problem is that the M5S could become identified as the party of the South, thus excluding any deal with the Lega that is still considered anti-South by many southern Italians.

The other problem is that all EU leaders wanted a deal between the centre-left and the most reasonable part of the right (PD, Forza Italia, +Europa, Noi con Italia) and they won't get nearly enough seats.

Nigelb

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

Looking at what Trump's economic advisers write (in all apparent seriousness), I think a trade war might be inevitable. They claim that VAT represents a trade barrier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a

Mrs May apparently put Trump in his place about the foolishness of starting a trade war, according to the front page of the Times. Let’s hope that his words so far contain enough hot air to run a steel furnace.

I think you're way too sanguine. There are too many around him telling him it's no big deal, and he campaigned extensively on it. There is some talk of 'exemptions' - which again would appeal to Trump's instincts for 'doing a deal'.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/04/trump-navarro-trade-tariffs-exemptions-434909

The VAT thing from his advisers actually shocked me. I'm not saying a trade war is overwhelmingly likely, but this could get of out control quite easily.

DecrepitJohnL

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

Looking at what Trump's economic advisers write (in all apparent seriousness), I think a trade war might be inevitable. They claim that VAT represents a trade barrier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a

Mrs May apparently put Trump in his place about the foolishness of starting a trade war, according to the front page of the Times. Let’s hope that his words so far contain enough hot air to run a steel furnace.

I think you're way too sanguine. There are too many around him telling him it's no big deal, and he campaigned extensively on it. There is some talk of 'exemptions' - which again would appeal to Trump's instincts for 'doing a deal'.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/04/trump-navarro-trade-tariffs-exemptions-434909

The VAT thing from his advisers actually shocked me. I'm not saying a trade war is overwhelmingly likely, but this could get of out control quite easily.

Yes, this could be serious. Navarro, his economic advisor on this is in the ascendancy, and Trump himself has been complaining about unfair foreign trade and the need for protectionism for decades -- long before he ran for president.

rcs1000

Chris_from_Paris said:

Sandpit said:

Well done to all those looking at the Italian election on the previous thread. Looking at the map I think it’s fair to say there’s something of a North/South divide in the country.
http://www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/senato.shtml

I guess we now wait for everyone to throw away their manifesto and stitch up a government among themselves, as usually happens with proportional voting systems that don’t deliver a clear verdict.

The problem is that the M5S could become identified as the party of the South, thus excluding any deal with the Lega that is still considered anti-South by many southern Italians.

The other problem is that all EU leaders wanted a deal between the centre-left and the most reasonable part of the right (PD, Forza Italia, +Europa, Noi con Italia) and they won't get nearly enough seats.

M5S have said they will not be junior partners in any coalition, so it's not clear what government is possible.

rcs1000

DecrepitJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

Looking at what Trump's economic advisers write (in all apparent seriousness), I think a trade war might be inevitable. They claim that VAT represents a trade barrier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a

Mrs May apparently put Trump in his place about the foolishness of starting a trade war, according to the front page of the Times. Let’s hope that his words so far contain enough hot air to run a steel furnace.

I think you're way too sanguine. There are too many around him telling him it's no big deal, and he campaigned extensively on it. There is some talk of 'exemptions' - which again would appeal to Trump's instincts for 'doing a deal'.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/04/trump-navarro-trade-tariffs-exemptions-434909

The VAT thing from his advisers actually shocked me. I'm not saying a trade war is overwhelmingly likely, but this could get of out control quite easily.

Yes, this could be serious. Navarro, his economic advisor on this is in the ascendancy, and Trump himself has been complaining about unfair foreign trade and the need for protectionism for decades -- long before he ran for president.

Switzerland: strong currency, lots of regulations, no tariffs on goods from EU or China
USA: not so strong currency, more free market, plenty of tariffs on goods from EU and China

Which one has the big trade surplus, and which one the big deficit?

A country's trade deficit (or surplus) is a consequence of its savings rate, not its tariff schedule.

DecrepitJohnL

Sandpit said:

On topic, I’m not sure that personation at polling stations is a massive problem, but any changes made to the way things work needs very careful consideration and a long implementation period if it is to avoid disenfranchisement.

Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.

The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.

I think you will find that re-registration and individual registration were not to prevent fraud but because Cameron and Osborne calculated it would help the Conservative Party. On the other hand, postal voting, despite the image of hundreds of fictitious Labour voters crammed into one-room flats, is generally believed to benefit the Conservatives most (older voters!). Making election day a public holiday on a Friday would probably help Labour if the more affluent take the opportunity of the long weekend to go skiing in Tuscany.

DecrepitJohnL

rcs1000 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

Looking at what Trump's economic advisers write (in all apparent seriousness), I think a trade war might be inevitable. They claim that VAT represents a trade barrier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a

Mrs May apparently put Trump in his place about the foolishness of starting a trade war, according to the front page of the Times. Let’s hope that his words so far contain enough hot air to run a steel furnace.

I think you're way too sanguine. There are too many around him telling him it's no big deal, and he campaigned extensively on it. There is some talk of 'exemptions' - which again would appeal to Trump's instincts for 'doing a deal'.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/04/trump-navarro-trade-tariffs-exemptions-434909

The VAT thing from his advisers actually shocked me. I'm not saying a trade war is overwhelmingly likely, but this could get of out control quite easily.

Yes, this could be serious. Navarro, his economic advisor on this is in the ascendancy, and Trump himself has been complaining about unfair foreign trade and the need for protectionism for decades -- long before he ran for president.

Switzerland: strong currency, lots of regulations, no tariffs on goods from EU or China
USA: not so strong currency, more free market, plenty of tariffs on goods from EU and China

Which one has the big trade surplus, and which one the big deficit?

A country's trade deficit (or surplus) is a consequence of its savings rate, not its tariff schedule.

Tell that to Mr Trump. Or pray that the free markets wing of the GOP does.

Charles

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

rcs1000

DecrepitJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

On topic, I’m not sure that personation at polling stations is a massive problem, but any changes made to the way things work needs very careful consideration and a long implementation period if it is to avoid disenfranchisement.

Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.

The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.

I think you will find that re-registration and individual registration were not to prevent fraud but because Cameron and Osborne calculated it would help the Conservative Party. On the other hand, postal voting, despite the image of hundreds of fictitious Labour voters crammed into one-room flats, is generally believed to benefit the Conservatives most (older voters!). Making election day a public holiday on a Friday would probably help Labour if the more affluent take the opportunity of the long weekend to go skiing in Tuscany.

Can you ski in Tuscany?

CarlottaVance

Business as usual:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/04/post-brexit-deal-eu-to-keep-draft-guidelines-short-and-general

edmundintokyo

So the different wings of the Remain campaign had previously both disenfranchised different parts of their electorate to screw each other.

The Tories did their best to kick young people off the register, as described by @DecrepidJohnL, and Labour took away the votes of people who lived outside the UK for more than 15 years, who were assumed to go disproportionately Tory.

View_From_Cumbria

RobD said:

What about the fraction that hold a driver's license?

There is no photo on my driving licence. I assume I will need one when I turn 70.

CarlottaVance

M. Quatremer keeps digging:

http://www.liberation.fr/planete/2018/03/04/martin-selmayr-braque-la-commission-europeenne_1633807?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1520193810

Selmayr veut imposer le Français Michel Barnier- dont il a fait le négociateur du Brexit -, comme tête de liste du PPE, ce qui lui garantira la présidence de la Commission, les conservateurs ayant toutes les chances d’arriver en tête aux élections de 2019. Pour lui, Barnier est le candidat idéal, car il est «Macron-compatible», mais aussi parce qu’il le considère comme faible et malléable.

https://tinyurl.com/selmayrgate

Edit - I'm astonished this hasn't had more coverage in the UK - its got 'classic Brussels scandal' written all over it with a cast list bursting with stock villains....

MarqueeMark

If there's another referendum, Leave should demand that all Remain voters don't get a vote.

You are already on the wrong side of which type of Brexit we sign up to. By voting not to have any.

Cake and eat it, Remainers?

MarqueeMark

rcs1000 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

On topic, I’m not sure that personation at polling stations is a massive problem, but any changes made to the way things work needs very careful consideration and a long implementation period if it is to avoid disenfranchisement.

Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.

The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.

I think you will find that re-registration and individual registration were not to prevent fraud but because Cameron and Osborne calculated it would help the Conservative Party. On the other hand, postal voting, despite the image of hundreds of fictitious Labour voters crammed into one-room flats, is generally believed to benefit the Conservatives most (older voters!). Making election day a public holiday on a Friday would probably help Labour if the more affluent take the opportunity of the long weekend to go skiing in Tuscany.

Can you ski in Tuscany?

https://www.onthesnow.co.uk/tuscany/skireport.html

not_on_fire

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

On topic, I’m not sure that personation at polling stations is a massive problem, but any changes made to the way things work needs very careful consideration and a long implementation period if it is to avoid disenfranchisement.

Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.

The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.

I think you will find that re-registration and individual registration were not to prevent fraud but because Cameron and Osborne calculated it would help the Conservative Party. On the other hand, postal voting, despite the image of hundreds of fictitious Labour voters crammed into one-room flats, is generally believed to benefit the Conservatives most (older voters!). Making election day a public holiday on a Friday would probably help Labour if the more affluent take the opportunity of the long weekend to go skiing in Tuscany.

Can you ski in Tuscany?

https://www.onthesnow.co.uk/tuscany/skireport.html

And can you do it in May, when most elections are held?

rkrkrk

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

Looking at what Trump's economic advisers write (in all apparent seriousness), I think a trade war might be inevitable. They claim that VAT represents a trade barrier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a

Mrs May apparently put Trump in his place about the foolishness of starting a trade war, according to the front page of the Times. Let’s hope that his words so far contain enough hot air to run a steel furnace.

I think you're way too sanguine. There are too many around him telling him it's no big deal, and he campaigned extensively on it. There is some talk of 'exemptions' - which again would appeal to Trump's instincts for 'doing a deal'.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/04/trump-navarro-trade-tariffs-exemptions-434909

The VAT thing from his advisers actually shocked me. I'm not saying a trade war is overwhelmingly likely, but this could get of out control quite easily.

I still think it's just talk. He's had over a year - he could have done this already.

And if he does actually do something- it will become obvious fairly quickly that it's a bad idea.

He might even unite Republicans and Democrats in Congress on something!

MarqueeMark

not_on_fire said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

On topic, I’m not sure that personation at polling stations is a massive problem, but any changes made to the way things work needs very careful consideration and a long implementation period if it is to avoid disenfranchisement.

Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.

The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.

I think you will find that re-registration and individual registration were not to prevent fraud but because Cameron and Osborne calculated it would help the Conservative Party. On the other hand, postal voting, despite the image of hundreds of fictitious Labour voters crammed into one-room flats, is generally believed to benefit the Conservatives most (older voters!). Making election day a public holiday on a Friday would probably help Labour if the more affluent take the opportunity of the long weekend to go skiing in Tuscany.

Can you ski in Tuscany?

https://www.onthesnow.co.uk/tuscany/skireport.html

And can you do it in May, when most elections are held?

The skiing was probably quite good in Tuscany in February 1974.

Must explain why Ted Heath lost.....

SquareRoot

Charles said:

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.

JackW

I consider a second referendum should be granted but only following certain preconditions :

1. Burnley FC win the Champions League
2. All male voters to remove their toupee at the polling station.
3. Bedford voters to consume a pineapple pizza at the polling station.
4. LibDem party members to kiss a portrait of Nigel Farage
5. Vince Cable to personally place a "winning here" placard on the moon
6. All voters to abjure the bar charts and sandals

Sandpit

SquareRoot said:

Charles said:

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.

Good luck with that argument in another referendum, that we need to stay because it’s too difficult to leave...

SquareRoot

Sandpit said:

SquareRoot said:

Charles said:

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.

Good luck with that argument in another referendum, that we need to stay because it’s too difficult to leave...

Its not an argument, its just a statement of facts. Leave it is going to be and the Country is going to suffer for it. I accept the result however much I dislike it.

TheJezziah

Sandpit said:

SquareRoot said:

Charles said:

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.

Good luck with that argument in another referendum, that we need to stay because it’s too difficult to leave...

It would at least go down better than you were tricked...

I think a soft Brexit is remainers best chance, wouldn't completely rule out a referendum but something needs to happen to get us there... something more than just Corbyn deciding it but a shift in public opinion for some reason.

AlastairMeeks

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

MarqueeMark

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

Charles

SquareRoot said:

Charles said:

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.

Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)

But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.

Charles

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

I’m listening to a rather fine rendition of the Duke of Plaza-Toro in recognition of this

MarqueeMark

No great surprises (or money-making opportunities) at the Oscars.

Well done though, Jet-ski Guy.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/05/entertainment/jet-ski-winner-oscars-mark-bridges/index.html

rcs1000

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

MarqueeMark

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."

AlastairMeeks

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."

On that theme, an instructive thread:

https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21

rcs1000

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."

True.

Still can't see it.

rcs1000

The funny bit about the election results is that those who campaigned against the Constitutional changes would have been those who most benefited from them.

TGOHF

London Mayoral election would seem the ideal one to insist on photo ID and a doctors line for a postal vote.

We’d get the result a lot earlier too.

IanB2

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

Both the League (but not Silvio's outfit) and Five Star appear to have over-performed expectations and must have some moral claim to be the winners. Particularly since, as I understand it, the electoral system was designed to under-represent M5S, yet they are still the largest party.

Chris_from_Paris

rcs1000 said:

The funny bit about the election results is that those who campaigned against the Constitutional changes would have been those who most benefited from them.

The incredibly complicated voting system designed by PD an FI to keep M5S out has jbadly misfired for both of them. The PD is only winning a handful of FPTP seats and Forza Italia was the weakest partner in the centre-right coalition.

CarlottaVance

Maybe the UK press are starting to pay attention.

https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/970558009238872064?s=20

Guardian usually very hot on malfeasance in high places and possible corruption....funny that....

Chris_from_Paris

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

A "technical" non-political government could work but it would be a very temporary solution.
If it sticks to EU mainstream policy it could boost even more the M5S and Lega.

The only good news from these results is that Berlusconi might finally retire.

TGOHF

Has there been any movement in the odds on another referendum since Friday ?

TOPPING

Charles said:

SquareRoot said:

Charles said:

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.

Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)

But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.

Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.

Gardenwalker

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."

On that theme, an instructive thread:

https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21

Very well done.
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.

But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!

TGOHF

https://twitter.com/bbcgaryr/status/970553695950770176?s=21

TGOHF

Gardenwalker said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."

On that theme, an instructive thread:

https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21

Very well done.
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.

But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!

As we keep hearing - we haven’t left yet...

DavidL

Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.

IanB2

Chris_from_Paris said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

A "technical" non-political government could work but it would be a very temporary solution.
If it sticks to EU mainstream policy it could boost even more the M5S and Lega.

The only good news from these results is that Berlusconi might finally retire.

Certainly it was hard to believe that Berlusconi was about to reacquire power at the head (outside parliament) of his new coalition, as some media commentators were predicting. That would have been a very sad comment on Italy. Voters do appear at leasr to have rejected his part of the coalition.

CarlottaVance

Gardenwalker said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."

On that theme, an instructive thread:

https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21

Very well done.
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.

But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!

Of course all of Remain’s claims were beyond reproach.....

Charles

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

SquareRoot said:

Charles said:

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.

Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)

But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.

Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.

You are misinterpreting. In my views leavers were motivated by philosophy ; Remainers by base greed. We are clearly higher up the hierarchy of needs

eek

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

SquareRoot said:

Charles said:

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.

Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)

But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.

Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.

If you haven't quite grasped how much of the Brexit vote was the ultimate fu to politicians of all stripes you haven't been paying attention.

Dura_Ace

Gardenwalker said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."

On that theme, an instructive thread:

https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21

Very well done.
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.

But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!

The Carswell bit was weapons grade cringe.

Mrs. DA just asked me to peel some potatoes. I told her I was executing 'ambitious managed divergence' from her meal plan but it didn't work.

philiph

CarlottaVance said:

Gardenwalker said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."

On that theme, an instructive thread:

https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21

Very well done.
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.

But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!

Of course all of Remain’s claims were beyond reproach.....

But we haven't left yet.

It is only the claims for the immediate effects of the vote that are empirically verifiable

Oh........

IanB2

DavidL said:

Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.

The Italy News in English site looks up to date and has a lot of news and latest commentary.

https://www.thelocal.it/

Mortimer

Gardenwalker said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."

On that theme, an instructive thread:

https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21

Very well done.
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.

But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!

As you've rightly recognised since the vote, the only pertinent fact is that the economy has not tanked.

The impression that all Remain had was project fear, a frequent claim Leave made during the ref., is a huge plus for Leave.

Another referendum now (not that there would be one) would be done on the backdrop of knowing that voting to Leave will not crash the economy or house prices.

MaxPB

DavidL said:

Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.

The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.

Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.

Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.

Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).

Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.

SquareRoot

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

SquareRoot said:

Charles said:

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.

Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)

But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.

Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.

You are misinterpreting. In my views leavers were motivated by philosophy ; Remainers by base greed. We are clearly higher up the hierarchy of needs

No, We are discussing sense and lack of it. Leave is the Black Knight.

MaxPB

Dura_Ace said:

Gardenwalker said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."

On that theme, an instructive thread:

https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21

Very well done.
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.

But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!

The Carswell bit was weapons grade cringe.

Mrs. DA just asked me to peel some potatoes. I told her I was executing 'ambitious managed divergence' from her meal plan but it didn't work.

You should have said you'd already had a conscious uncoupling with the potato peeler.

DavidL

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.

The Italy News in English site looks up to date and has a lot of news and latest commentary.

https://www.thelocal.it/

Thanks.

It seems to me that there are 2 scenarios here. The first is that Italy will simply fail to have an operating government for the remainder of the Brexit process and will play no effective part.

The alternative is that they get a Eurosceptic government who will disrupt the EU27 line somewhat. Whether that will be an advantage or disadvantage probably depends on how close we are to getting the sort of deal that May set out on Friday.

The former seems the most likely (and probably the safest for us).

TOPPING

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

SquareRoot said:

Charles said:

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.

Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)

But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.

Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.

You are misinterpreting. In my views leavers were motivated by philosophy ; Remainers by base greed. We are clearly higher up the hierarchy of needs

You quite clearly were saying that Leavers should have done their homework and didn’t.

MarqueeMark

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.

The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.

Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.

Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.

Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).

Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.

Excellent summary.

You only missed out "And Brussels is going "oh bugger...."

TOPPING

eek said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

SquareRoot said:

Charles said:

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.

Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)

But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.

Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.

If you haven't quite grasped how much of the Brexit vote was the ultimate fu to politicians of all stripes you haven't been paying attention.

It has always been my view.

Pulpstar

Backed Tajani £5, laid Gentiloni to £10 stake so hopefully a fiver up

edmundintokyo

MaxPB said:

Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).

Like Germany???

MarqueeMark

Gardenwalker said:

I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.

That if Remain lost, they would use the EU playbook - and get us to vote and vote and vote until we Remained.

That looks pretty much spot on from where I am.

MaxPB

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.

The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.

Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.

Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.

Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).

Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.

Excellent summary.

You only missed out "And Brussels is going "oh bugger...."

Well it seems as though parties in favour of the EU are on about 35%, parties against are on about 35% and 5* are on about 30% but they are on the sceptic side of the fence, but fall short of calling for withdrawal or a referendum.

As far as the EU goes, it's not a good night when the two out and out pro EU parties have scored 21% between them (PD and +E). Every other party has various levels scepiticsm, none are what we would think of as pro-EU.

MarqueeMark

SquareRoot said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

SquareRoot said:

Charles said:

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.

Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)

But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.

Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.

You are misinterpreting. In my views leavers were motivated by philosophy ; Remainers by base greed. We are clearly higher up the hierarchy of needs

No, We are discussing sense and lack of it. Leave is the Black Knight.

Your taunts are just a flesh wound.

MaxPB

edmundintokyo said:

MaxPB said:

Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).

Like Germany???

A last ditch grand coalition which is going to decimate the SPD and see AfD become the official opposition and probably come second at the next election.

alex.

I don't understand the need to put in place draconian measures to avoid personification. As has been pointed out the major potential weakness areas are registration and, perhaps postal voting (although the latter is largely a consequence of the former). Basically "fake" voters. Also possibly student voters voting twice (which postal voting has made easy, and many don't think they're doing anything wrong.

Personification on any widespread scale would never succeed because it will become obvious - too many stories will come out of people complaining that they haven't been able to vote because somebody has already voted in their place.

MarqueeMark

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.

The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.

Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.

Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.

Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).

Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.

Excellent summary.

You only missed out "And Brussels is going "oh bugger...."

Well it seems as though parties in favour of the EU are on about 35%, parties against are on about 35% and 5* are on about 30% but they are on the sceptic side of the fence, but fall short of calling for withdrawal or a referendum.

As far as the EU goes, it's not a good night when the two out and out pro EU parties have scored 21% between them (PD and +E). Every other party has various levels scepiticsm, none are what we would think of as pro-EU.

Unchecked immigration into the EU, and then between EU states, is causing the EU's death by a thousand cuts.

Chris_from_Paris

DavidL said:

Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.

The centre-left is the biggest loser. It lost more than 6 points compared to 2013. It's even worse compared to the last European elections (-17 points) and considering that since 2013 the pro-Europe centrist coalition of Monti (more than 10% in 2013) has disappeared.
It only stays strong in some urban areas and in the traditional red provinces (Toscana, Marche, Umbria).
Renzi's career seems finished and Gentiloni's hope to stay on seems doomed by the terrible PD score.

The centre-right did much better than in 2013, with a gain of 8 points. However the internal balance of the coalition has totally changed: the Lega was almost dead in 2013 with 4% but is now the third largest single party in the country with 18%. Neo-fascist Fratelli d'Italia doubled its score from 2 to 4%. Opposingly, Berlusconi's Forza Italia lost 8 points.
In terms of geography the League swept the North as expected but did actually quite well even in Central Italy.
The problem for the coalition is that Berlusconi's party was not able to be competitive against the M5S in the South, as the left collapsed.

The M5S progressed a bit less (+6.5 points) but is now by far the biggest single party, built on a vgood performance in the North and Centre (20/25%) and a landslide in the South.
One point of interest to me is that the extremely high scores of M5S in Napoli, Sicily and Calabria seem to indicate that traditional local powers have assented to their victory. It will be interesting to see how their inexeperienced MPs resist (or not) the inevitable pressures of organized crime.

Gardenwalker

MaxPB said:

edmundintokyo said:

MaxPB said:

Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).

Like Germany???

A last ditch grand coalition which is going to decimate the SPD and see AfD become the official opposition and probably come second at the next election.

To your predictable glee.

Casino_Royale

I'm struggling to find anything on the BBC website on the Italian election.

It's just wall-to-wall luvvie Oscars sanctimony.

Charles

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

SquareRoot said:

Charles said:

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.

Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)

But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.

Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.

You are misinterpreting. In my views leavers were motivated by philosophy ; Remainers by base greed. We are clearly higher up the hierarchy of needs

You quite clearly were saying that Leavers should have done their homework and didn’t.

Your argument is simply “Leave voters are stupid”.

My view is that voters take politicians’ words as one input but cast their vote based on a range of inputs, many of which are intuitive.

You can’t say “X lied. Therefore the result is invalid”. Because you can’t prove that X impacted the outcome

DavidL

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.

Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.

Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.

Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).

Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.

Excellent summary.

You only missed out "And Brussels is going "oh bugger...."

Well it seems as though parties in favour of the EU are on about 35%, parties against are on about 35% and 5* are on about 30% but they are on the sceptic side of the fence, but fall short of calling for withdrawal or a referendum.

As far as the EU goes, it's not a good night when the two out and out pro EU parties have scored 21% between them (PD and +E). Every other party has various levels scepiticsm, none are what we would think of as pro-EU.

Unchecked immigration into the EU, and then between EU states, is causing the EU's death by a thousand cuts.

On one view it is almost the reverse. Italy as a front line state has had over 600k immigrants from Africa and damn little help or support from the rest of the EU. The EU's attempt to share the load failed abysmally and left Italy in the firing line. Whatever government they get is going to be under huge pressure to mass export economic refugees back to Africa on a scale and summary manner that is going to appal many EU countries who did not help.

Gardenwalker

According to latest projections, Five Star plus any one of Lega, PD or Forza Italia have the numbers to govern.

What about a Five Star minority administration propped up by PD?

MaxPB

Gardenwalker said:

MaxPB said:

edmundintokyo said:

MaxPB said:

Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).

Like Germany???

A last ditch grand coalition which is going to decimate the SPD and see AfD become the official opposition and probably come second at the next election.

To your predictable glee.

No glee at all, I think the CDU should have dumped Merkel and gone back to the public, then a Union+FDP coalition would probably have just about been enough. Merkel is the problem, AfD are just a symptom of her awful policies.

IanB2

Casino_Royale said:

I'm struggling to find anything on the BBC website on the Italian election.

It's just wall-to-wall luvvie Oscars sanctimony.

Not as good as elsewhere, but it is there

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43272700

Sandpit

DecrepitJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

On topic, I’m not sure that personation at polling stations is a massive problem, but any changes made to the way things work needs very careful consideration and a long implementation period if it is to avoid disenfranchisement.

Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.

The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.

I think you will find that re-registration and individual registration were not to prevent fraud but because Cameron and Osborne calculated it would help the Conservative Party. On the other hand, postal voting, despite the image of hundreds of fictitious Labour voters crammed into one-room flats, is generally believed to benefit the Conservatives most (older voters!). Making election day a public holiday on a Friday would probably help Labour if the more affluent take the opportunity of the long weekend to go skiing in Tuscany.

My understanding of the reasons behind IVR was that it followed on from the court cases in Tower Hamlets and elsewhere, where there was indeed significant evidence of more names on the electoral roll in certain properties than could possibly have actually lived there. In TH they weren’t Labour voters. I’m in favour of only giving postal votes to people who are housebound or out of the country on polling day, but also in favour of anything that increases turnout in general.

As I said, it’s really important that any process that leads to a change in rules is seen to be impartial, ask Nick Clegg what happens if you’re seen to be trying to change the system for nakedly partisan reasons.

DavidL

Chris_from_Paris said:

DavidL said:

Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.

The centre-left is the biggest loser. It lost more than 6 points compared to 2013. It's even worse compared to the last European elections (-17 points) and considering that since 2013 the pro-Europe centrist coalition of Monti (more than 10% in 2013) has disappeared.
It only stays strong in some urban areas and in the traditional red provinces (Toscana, Marche, Umbria).
Renzi's career seems finished and Gentiloni's hope to stay on seems doomed by the terrible PD score.

The centre-right did much better than in 2013, with a gain of 8 points. However the internal balance of the coalition has totally changed: the Lega was almost dead in 2013 with 4% but is now the third largest single party in the country with 18%. Neo-fascist Fratelli d'Italia doubled its score from 2 to 4%. Opposingly, Berlusconi's Forza Italia lost 8 points.
In terms of geography the League swept the North as expected but did actually quite well even in Central Italy.
The problem for the coalition is that Berlusconi's party was not able to be competitive against the M5S in the South, as the left collapsed.

The M5S progressed a bit less (+6.5 points) but is now by far the biggest single party, built on a vgood performance in the North and Centre (20/25%) and a landslide in the South.
One point of interest to me is that the extremely high scores of M5S in Napoli, Sicily and Calabria seem to indicate that traditional local powers have assented to their victory. It will be interesting to see how their inexeperienced MPs resist (or not) the inevitable pressures of organized crime.

Thanks. The most comprehensive exposition I have found so far.

MaxPB

Gardenwalker said:

According to latest projections, Five Star plus any one of Lega, PD or Forza Italia have the numbers to govern.

What about a Five Star minority administration propped up by PD?

You don't get to be a populist movement and then get into bed with PD or FI. They would lose way too much support. The only viable coalition is Lega plus 5*, but even that seems unlikely.

OchEye

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.

The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.

Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.

Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.

Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).

Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.

Oh I don't know, we had a good try in June 2017... ..

Foxy

DavidL said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.

Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.

Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.

Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).

Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.

Excellent summary.

You only missed out "And Brussels is going "oh bugger...."

Well it seems as though parties in favour of the EU are on about 35%, parties against are on about 35% and 5* are on about 30% but they are on the sceptic side of the fence, but fall short of calling for withdrawal or a referendum.

As far as the EU goes, it's not a good night when the two out and out pro EU parties have scored 21% between them (PD and +E). Every other party has various levels scepiticsm, none are what we would think of as pro-EU.

Unchecked immigration into the EU, and then between EU states, is causing the EU's death by a thousand cuts.

On one view it is almost the reverse. Italy as a front line state has had over 600k immigrants from Africa and damn little help or support from the rest of the EU. The EU's attempt to share the load failed abysmally and left Italy in the firing line. Whatever government they get is going to be under huge pressure to mass export economic refugees back to Africa on a scale and summary manner that is going to appal many EU countries who did not help.

The first step should be landing rescued migrants back on the Libyan coast, in an EU funded refugee camp. There could be an asylum office as part of the facilities.

Granting effective right to remain in Europe as soon as a toe touches European soil is the root of the problem.

TOPPING

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

SquareRoot said:

Charles said:

So you don’t think Remain can win without fixing the vote? like trying to ram through votes for children?

Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.

And rather saddening

You should be ashamed of yourself

Leave won by telling a whole lot of lies... There are many people I know who voted leave who now complain they didn't realise the enormity of it.

Politicians say what they say. It’s incumbent on voters to do their own diligence before voting. (Remain told plenty of lies as well.)

But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.

Not a very charitable view of your fellow Leavers, Charles; too stupid to do the appropriate due diligence (whether because they couldn’t or wouldn’t) to check whether the politicians were lying to them or not.

You are misinterpreting. In my views leavers were motivated by philosophy ; Remainers by base greed. We are clearly higher up the hierarchy of needs

You quite clearly were saying that Leavers should have done their homework and didn’t.

Your argument is simply “Leave voters are stupid”.

My view is that voters take politicians’ words as one input but cast their vote based on a range of inputs, many of which are intuitive.

You can’t say “X lied. Therefore the result is invalid”. Because you can’t prove that X impacted the outcome

Stop wriggling. You said it was up to Voters to discern whether politicians were lying via due diligence which Leave voters had not done. It wasn’t me who said they were stupid, it was you.

Pulpstar

Salvini most likely PM ?

edmundintokyo

MaxPB said:

edmundintokyo said:

MaxPB said:

Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).

Like Germany???

A last ditch grand coalition which is going to decimate the SPD and see AfD become the official opposition and probably come second at the next election.

Not what you said...

MaxPB

Pulpstar said:

Salvini most likely PM ?

It's between Salvini and Di Maio.

MarqueeMark

DavidL said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.

Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.

Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.

Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).

Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.

Excellent summary.

You only missed out "And Brussels is going "oh bugger...."

Well it seems as though parties in favour of the EU are on about 35%, parties against are on about 35% and 5* are on about 30% but they are on the sceptic side of the fence, but fall short of calling for withdrawal or a referendum.

As far as the EU goes, it's not a good night when the two out and out pro EU parties have scored 21% between them (PD and +E). Every other party has various levels scepiticsm, none are what we would think of as pro-EU.

Unchecked immigration into the EU, and then between EU states, is causing the EU's death by a thousand cuts.

On one view it is almost the reverse. Italy as a front line state has had over 600k immigrants from Africa and damn little help or support from the rest of the EU. The EU's attempt to share the load failed abysmally and left Italy in the firing line. Whatever government they get is going to be under huge pressure to mass export economic refugees back to Africa on a scale and summary manner that is going to appal many EU countries who did not help.

Merkel said "come to the EU, we'll let you in..." It was a unilateral declaration, but the EU did nothing to rein her in and say "Hang on a minute..." Not all by any means, but a chunk of the 600k from Africa took Merkel at her word.

The new Italian government should encourage them to onward transit to Germany. And every one of the other EU countries should say that is as far as they go in the EU. Problem belong Merkel.

Jonathan

Casino_Royale said:

I'm struggling to find anything on the BBC website on the Italian election.

It's just wall-to-wall luvvie Oscars sanctimony.

Front page story...



Italy election: Populist surge prompts political deadlock - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43272700

OchEye

TGOHF said:

Has there been any movement in the odds on another referendum since Friday ?

Nope, but watching TMay on Marr, Corbyn on Facebook, Sturgeon and Cable on various interviews, all over the weekend, I am beginning to suspect that they think a new GE is coming...

Roger

Dura_Ace said:

Gardenwalker said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, the Italian result looks messy even by their usual chaotic standards. The simplest way to a majority is for the two wallflowers, Five Star Movement and Lega, to get together, but could they work together in practice?

They'll be fine. As long as one of them hasn't pledged to cut student fees.....

The problem is that M5S has said: (a) it won't get into bed with Forza Italia, and (b) it won't play second fiddle in a coaliton.

So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.

All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.

As Charles eloquently put it "Politicians say what they say."

On that theme, an instructive thread:

https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21

Very well done.
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.

But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!

The Carswell bit was weapons grade cringe.

Mrs. DA just asked me to peel some potatoes. I told her I was executing 'ambitious managed divergence' from her meal plan but it didn't work.

That made me laugh. Thank goodness. Come the revolution I can't decide whether Cameron should face the firing squad first or Farage.

MarqueeMark

OchEye said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

Has anyone got a good summary of what has happened in Italy? Even by its own feeble standards the BBC is uninformative and somewhat out of date.

The centre right coalition has "won" but come up short of a majority, 5* are the largest single party but are well short of a majority, the centre left coalition has been given a battering, though the main party is second on a single party basis.

Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.

Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.

Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).

Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.

Oh I don't know, we had a good try in June 2017... ..

Nothing a billion quid couldn't sort out. (None of which has yet been drawn down - bargain!)

Chris_from_Paris

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

According to latest projections, Five Star plus any one of Lega, PD or Forza Italia have the numbers to govern.

What about a Five Star minority administration propped up by PD?

You don't get to be a populist movement and then get into bed with PD or FI. They would lose way too much support. The only viable coalition is Lega plus 5*, but even that seems unlikely.

Becoming junior partners to M5S would be a suicide for the PD. Remember that it thinks of itself as the heir of the two largest post-WW2 parties (Communist Party and Christian Democracy) and sees itself (and is seen in Brussels) as the natural party of government.

Their only hope now seems to become a strong opposition to whatever government comes up, and especially to M5S. However their last minute scare campaign against a M5S/Lega givernment did not work this time.