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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take the 33-1 that UKIP will win Cambourne and Redruth
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take the 33-1 that UKIP will win Cambourne and Redruth
PaddyPower has put up some more GE2015 single constituency markets including the Cornish seats of Cambourne Redruth which the Tories took off the Lib Dems in 2010.
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Still, as a trading bet...
On at 40-1
Use resources to win a seat back from the blues or to keep three adjacent seats yellow?
If (and they may not be) resources are limited, which action is most important, will the local parties agree with a dictat from on high issuing priorities and how do you not get caught doing a bit of each and failing in all directions?
http://hopisen.com/2013/only-read-this-post-if-youre-a-political-nerd/
No it isn't. One Nation Labour haven't got a chance in this part of the nation.
The seat (or its predecessor) was also represented by Labour whose former MP, Candy Atherton, is a Cornwall County Councillor in Falmouth.
I respect those who think UKIP but Labour at 8/1 looks the bet for me.
Is this the norm with betting agencies - or just for those with a successful (and therefore risky) track record?
I can't think at the moment of any recent analogy.
There is no credible evidence that UKIP are on course to win even a single seat in 2015, and I'll eat my hat if this is it!
The fact that most people are betting with their heart multiplies this more than in most betting mediums
Brown bouncers ?
The Hopi Sen article is truly excellent. Hopi has the ability to take us through the process of paint drying - or in this case peeling - and make us enjoy and understand every step.
Hopi hasn't told us anything new or surprising. He has just revealed the truth in all its mundane simplicity.
OGH may have questions about Hopi's methodology but I think this misses the point. Hopi represents the elegance of simplicity and the wisdom of the sane.
Taylor won with a majority of 18,000, defeating the incumbent Labour MP and junior minister, David Lock.
In short, you could argue it all 4 ways. As the best proxy for "unpredictable" UKIP successes it's not a bad portfolio bet, perhaps, but I can't see that anyone can honestly claim to have a clue what colour this seat will be in 18 months time. And that's without even mentioning Mebyon.
I suspect this seat will turn out to be a good value loser for UKIP - Probably come 2nd.
But you never know....
I'm given to understand that Labour have an edge in the ground game too.
Do we know if we are in 4 party politics because we are in a coalition and one opposition party is not enough (sorry Greens, you seem to have been usurped here) or because UKIP resonates?
We don't know the Scotland situation. Will the independence referendum change votes if it is won, or will it change votes if it is lost because it has highlighted the West Lothian question to the general English population?
Do we know how much of Labour 2010 was a hang on to the experienced Mr Brown vote in these turbulent times? There was some in there, I believe.
Do we know how attitudes and polls are reacting to the unusual lack of 'election date speculation' in the media, which was rampant before the fixed term act, and maybe would have hardened poll responses as the prospect of election was ramped up.
For 2015 there are more major imponderables than I can recollect for many and election, making polls and predictions far less certain and less comparable to past situations than for many a year.
Of course, Angus Robertson, SNP MP, has called for the 2015 election to be postponed in the event of a Yes vote.
I see this as a Tory hold but 40/1 on UKIP and 8/1 on Labour were both decent enough prices if the Lib Dems are really out of it (and they seem to be). If UKIP has come in a lot and Labour drifted then the value is probably with Labour now.
I would say it make a Conservative Minority Gov't far more likely however.
Someone will have eaten someone else's lobster and that will be the deciding factor.
pic.twitter.com/fCqaPMHgRq
He gains the most gravitas. Dave looks distinctly odd.
All that is left now is for Paddy's odds compiler to push Conservatives out to Evens and it will GSM !
Do you need a twitter account to get these links? I have resisted so far. Putting them into google never seems to produce anything.
http://labourlist.org/2013/12/ed-balls-will-be-shadow-chancellor-going-into-the-next-election-says-ed-miliband/
Interesting labour market detail: 93% of employment growth in latest 12 months was among UK nationals: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_338181.pdf … (p10)
Gordon Brown should be happy..
"In short, you could argue it all 4 ways."
... if that is even remotely true, and one of the four options is 33/1 then it is a fantastic bet
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HM-4agdgBqk
Credible evidence? Well a couple of by-election wins would be a start. The SDP won 2 in 1981/2, including one with 50% of the vote. Come 1983 how many seats did they win?
1 of the by-election seats was held. (doesn't look like UKIP are going to have a by-election win to defend)
4 popular defectors held on. (UKIP won't have this as an option)
1 seat was gained. (the Liberals essentially handed it to them on a plate. Again, no gift-horses on the horizon for UKIP)
Looking at the seats, I think the LDs will hold North Cornwall and the Conservatives will probably hold SE Cornwall but none of the other seats is easy to call. Oddly enough, I could imagine the LDs winning St Austell and losing St Ives but it's far from clear.
"Eating someone else's lobster" is a euphemism I'm not familiar with. Intriguing.
Paddy Power say No at 2/5...
The vast majority of UK workers are going to see their pay rise faster than inflation next year, and while bankers and builders could struggle I don't think many will lose too much sleep over it.
If a Labour bod is out there - seriously reconsider the pay growth/real earnings stuff for 2014. It will turn into lame duck argument. The signs are all there and with the financial services industry almost booming again, the headline rate of pay growth could rise much more quickly than anyone expects.
I'll be back on the Blue team from 2015 I think, think that is where the value will be in the betting at any rate...
Can't imagine he'll be doing that again.
"He will have to serve at least two-thirds of the 29 years "
Everyone knows 'at least' means 'at the most' with the UK justice system.
Smart move for Hughes and for Lib Dems as they struggle to hold onto seats like Bermondsey. I know from personal experience that he's a great MP and I've voted for him on many occasions even though I'm a Labour member.
If you want to know what will be happening in the economy over the next year or so, it's always a good idea to talk to architects and to companies in the motor-industry supply chain.
It went well, we had a run through of my strengths, I had to declare any current equity holdings, he had a look through my personal stock portfolio and seemed impressed (started with £14k in 2011, worth £25k today excluding dividend payments). He said I would have to take a few courses.
I took Bobajob's advice on dress code, thanks for that btw! Also took ALP's advice on meeting other analysts there. They are all a bit like me, geeky, focussed, highly analytical. We went for a drink afterwards, I get the feeling they don't like traders.
He said I would have to go through the official vetting process with HR, but no formal interview, just a meeting like the one I already had with another senior analyst.
All in all it was very positive. I think even if the pay wasn't as good as what's on offer I would take it, not that he needs to know! He said HR will contact me for a meeting, and to bring my passport etc...
Crazy how fast these things move. :O
I would say though, that I think Mike's objection -from what he's said- is a perfectly reasonable one.
I have tried to net off the impact of 2010 voters who now say they won't vote when calculating the impact in overall vote share terms - taking the DK/WV off and then calculating the 'share of the remainder' but it is a pretty labourious task, not helped by the way YG present this data.
However, the changing proportion of people who say they'll vote is clearly as significant as how the remainder split. So I certainly agree with Mike that it would be far better to have the data for 2010 voters presented with non-voters included, rather than separated out. (this is, IIRC, the way populus do it). That way you'd see the impact of churn far more clearly.
Right now, for example, if a group of 2010 LD voters who are undecided came back to the LDs, this would seem to depress the 'labour share' of 2010 LDs without Labour losing a single actual voter. Which would be quite confusing.
As far as I can tell, however, 2010 LibDems who say they won't vote are consistently between 20-25 of the total, and it doesn't seem to have changed much over the last year. There seems to have been a slight increase in the number of 2010 Labour voters who now say they won't vote, and of those that will, slightly more say they'll vote LD/Tory/UKIP. This, combined with a lower proportion of LDs and Tories saying they'll vote Labour, accounts for much of Labour's share. For the LDs, the number of 2010 voters saying they won't vote seems to be reasonably steady, for the Tories, it may have changed, but frankly, the share going directly to Labour is both small and little change, so I doubt it would make much difference!
@MaxPB - Congratulations - when the deal is signed would you mind letting on which Bank it is that will be benefiting from your analysis?
btw congrats on the job.
http://www.liverpooldailypost.co.uk/