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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take the 33-1 that UKIP will win Cambourne and Redruth

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited December 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take the 33-1 that UKIP will win Cambourne and Redruth

PaddyPower has put up some more GE2015 single constituency markets including the Cornish seats of Cambourne Redruth which the Tories took off the Lib Dems in 2010.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2013
    First? And no chance surely, given how people revert to the three main parties when there's a "proper" election.

    Still, as a trading bet...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited December 2013
    Take the 33-1 ?

    On at 40-1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Anorak said:

    First? And no chance surely, given how people revert to the three main parties when there's a "proper" election.

    Still, as a trading bet...

    I'm afraid there won't be much trading with the £2.51 Paddy Power allows you !
  • It will be interesting to see how many UKIPpers stick with the purples and how many don't bother or return to a bigger party at the General Election.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Pulpstar said:

    Anorak said:

    First? And no chance surely, given how people revert to the three main parties when there's a "proper" election.

    Still, as a trading bet...

    I'm afraid there won't be much trading with the £2.51 Paddy Power allows you !
    Ha! No, that's not going to let anyone retire to a private island, is it.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Looking at that map, is there a local dilemma for the LibDems?

    Use resources to win a seat back from the blues or to keep three adjacent seats yellow?

    If (and they may not be) resources are limited, which action is most important, will the local parties agree with a dictat from on high issuing priorities and how do you not get caught doing a bit of each and failing in all directions?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FPT - wanted to highlight it again as a fascinating post. OGH: perhaps even worth a guest thread?

    http://hopisen.com/2013/only-read-this-post-if-youre-a-political-nerd/
  • Anorak said:

    First? And no chance surely, given how people revert to the three main parties when there's a "proper" election.

    Still, as a trading bet...

    But will they this time? We've moved from 3-party politics to 4 parties and basic assumptions might not stand up.



  • " In many ways it is now a 4-way marginal ".
    No it isn't. One Nation Labour haven't got a chance in this part of the nation.
  • Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anorak said:

    First? And no chance surely, given how people revert to the three main parties when there's a "proper" election.

    Still, as a trading bet...

    I'm afraid there won't be much trading with the £2.51 Paddy Power allows you !
    Ha! No, that's not going to let anyone retire to a private island, is it.
    Generally PaddyPower will allow you to put more on if you phone them and you can get even bigger bets on by going into one of their betting shops.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    Afternoon all :)

    The seat (or its predecessor) was also represented by Labour whose former MP, Candy Atherton, is a Cornwall County Councillor in Falmouth.

    I respect those who think UKIP but Labour at 8/1 looks the bet for me.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,550
    Looking at the monthly average populus 2010 swing data, the only noticeable change since July is that the 2010 C-C is firming up from an average of 64% in July to 68% so far in December. There appears to be no other material movement.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited December 2013
    Pulpstar said:

    Anorak said:

    First? And no chance surely, given how people revert to the three main parties when there's a "proper" election.

    Still, as a trading bet...

    I'm afraid there won't be much trading with the £2.51 Paddy Power allows you !
    Not a betting man, but always astonished to see how little, regular PBers are allowed to bet.

    Is this the norm with betting agencies - or just for those with a successful (and therefore risky) track record?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Also rans come from nowhere to win a hypermarginal seat?

    I can't think at the moment of any recent analogy.

    There is no credible evidence that UKIP are on course to win even a single seat in 2015, and I'll eat my hat if this is it!
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    RodCrosby said:

    Also rans come from nowhere to win a hypermarginal seat?

    I can't think at the moment of any recent analogy.

    There is no credible evidence that UKIP are on course to win even a single seat in 2015, and I'll eat my hat if this is it!

    Shouldn't you be more specific about which hat you will ingest?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited December 2013

    Pulpstar said:

    Anorak said:

    First? And no chance surely, given how people revert to the three main parties when there's a "proper" election.

    Still, as a trading bet...

    I'm afraid there won't be much trading with the £2.51 Paddy Power allows you !
    Not a betting man, but always astonished to see how little, regular PBers are allowed to bet.

    Is this the norm with betting agencies - or just for those with a successful (and therefore risky) track record?
    I have no idea, neither me nor Paddy knows whether or not I will be up or down with them come the GE as the amount of open bets with them is just over £500.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Anorak said:

    First? And no chance surely, given how people revert to the three main parties when there's a "proper" election.

    Still, as a trading bet...

    But will they this time? We've moved from 3-party politics to 4 parties and basic assumptions might not stand up.



    I think, though could be wrong, but I reckon a lot of people will lose a lot of money sticking to basic assumptions based on three party politics

    The fact that most people are betting with their heart multiplies this more than in most betting mediums

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Charles said:

    FPT - wanted to highlight it again as a fascinating post. OGH: perhaps even worth a guest thread?

    http://hopisen.com/2013/only-read-this-post-if-youre-a-political-nerd/

    Interesting that Scotland is where Labour have lost the most "supporters".

    Brown bouncers ?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited December 2013
    FPT @RichardNabavi & @Charles

    The Hopi Sen article is truly excellent. Hopi has the ability to take us through the process of paint drying - or in this case peeling - and make us enjoy and understand every step.

    Hopi hasn't told us anything new or surprising. He has just revealed the truth in all its mundane simplicity.

    OGH may have questions about Hopi's methodology but I think this misses the point. Hopi represents the elegance of simplicity and the wisdom of the sane.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited December 2013
    Actually I'm distinctly hoping a couple of them DON'T come in !

  • RodCrosby said:

    Also rans come from nowhere to win a hypermarginal seat?

    I can't think at the moment of any recent analogy.

    There is no credible evidence that UKIP are on course to win even a single seat in 2015, and I'll eat my hat if this is it!

    There is no recent analogy for a party coming from nowhere to be a steady 10-15%+ in the polls. Out of interest, what would you count as 'credible evidence'? I have my doubts as to whether UKIP will win a seat but local election results and the by-election in Eastleigh certainly suggest the possibility.
  • RodCrosby said:

    Also rans come from nowhere to win a hypermarginal seat?

    I can't think at the moment of any recent analogy.

    How recent? – There was Dr Richard Taylor, who stood as Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern candidate at the 2001 general election. - Taylor campaigned largely on a single issue, that of restoring the Accident & Emergency department of Kidderminster Hospital, which had been closed in 2000 due to cuts in the NHS.

    Taylor won with a majority of 18,000, defeating the incumbent Labour MP and junior minister, David Lock.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    " In many ways it is now a 4-way marginal ".
    No it isn't. One Nation Labour haven't got a chance in this part of the nation.

    Labour werent far off the Tories here in the locals this year. Both were behind UKIP. The Lib Dems seem to have collapsed in this constituency and have no chance.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    There are too many uncertainties in this one... because it's Cornish, the LD share is likely to be robust with less LD-Lab switchers than elsewhere (or will it?); much of the seat is "proper" urban/industrial Cornwall, i.e. high levels of poverty, low levels of education which has, in the past predicated a strong Lab vote in times of increased economic inequality (but will that vote go UKIP instead?); the southern half of the constituency has a good share of instinctively conservative well-off retiree/second-homers (but will that small-c conservatism translate into Con or UKIP); and it's an almost entirely white electorate but proud of being a liberal community (so is that UKIP or LD?)

    In short, you could argue it all 4 ways. As the best proxy for "unpredictable" UKIP successes it's not a bad portfolio bet, perhaps, but I can't see that anyone can honestly claim to have a clue what colour this seat will be in 18 months time. And that's without even mentioning Mebyon.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    TGOHF said:

    Charles said:

    FPT - wanted to highlight it again as a fascinating post. OGH: perhaps even worth a guest thread?

    http://hopisen.com/2013/only-read-this-post-if-youre-a-political-nerd/

    Interesting that Scotland is where Labour have lost the most "supporters".

    Brown bouncers ?
    Scotland is not going to be great for Labour come GE night. I'm still wondering what happens if the Scots vote to go it alone in relation to the HoC position in May , 2015 ?
  • SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    As with all long shot bets highlighted by certain posters on here, I went to back this without even bothering to undertake any research myself (expierence suggests just take their word for it) and it's a feeble 14/1 now :-(
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    I think all the LD/Con marginals are now 3 way marginals that "could be won on a very low vote share."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Polruan said:

    There are too many uncertainties in this one... because it's Cornish, the LD share is likely to be robust with less LD-Lab switchers than elsewhere (or will it?); much of the seat is "proper" urban/industrial Cornwall, i.e. high levels of poverty, low levels of education which has, in the past predicated a strong Lab vote in times of increased economic inequality (but will that vote go UKIP instead?); the southern half of the constituency has a good share of instinctively conservative well-off retiree/second-homers (but will that small-c conservatism translate into Con or UKIP); and it's an almost entirely white electorate but proud of being a liberal community (so is that UKIP or LD?)

    In short, you could argue it all 4 ways. As the best proxy for "unpredictable" UKIP successes it's not a bad portfolio bet, perhaps, but I can't see that anyone can honestly claim to have a clue what colour this seat will be in 18 months time. And that's without even mentioning Mebyon.

    If there is genuinely no idea then all the parties default position is 3-1 (Not saying this is the case, but it is the starting point for a 4 horse race). Obviously 33/40-1 is the value.

    I suspect this seat will turn out to be a good value loser for UKIP - Probably come 2nd.

    But you never know....
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:

    " In many ways it is now a 4-way marginal ".
    No it isn't. One Nation Labour haven't got a chance in this part of the nation.

    Labour werent far off the Tories here in the locals this year. Both were behind UKIP. The Lib Dems seem to have collapsed in this constituency and have no chance.
    Neil

    I'm given to understand that Labour have an edge in the ground game too.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited December 2013

    Anorak said:

    First? And no chance surely, given how people revert to the three main parties when there's a "proper" election.

    Still, as a trading bet...

    But will they this time? We've moved from 3-party politics to 4 parties and basic assumptions might not stand up.



    We don't even know if basic assumptions will stand the stress test of coalition government.

    Do we know if we are in 4 party politics because we are in a coalition and one opposition party is not enough (sorry Greens, you seem to have been usurped here) or because UKIP resonates?

    We don't know the Scotland situation. Will the independence referendum change votes if it is won, or will it change votes if it is lost because it has highlighted the West Lothian question to the general English population?

    Do we know how much of Labour 2010 was a hang on to the experienced Mr Brown vote in these turbulent times? There was some in there, I believe.

    Do we know how attitudes and polls are reacting to the unusual lack of 'election date speculation' in the media, which was rampant before the fixed term act, and maybe would have hardened poll responses as the prospect of election was ramped up.

    For 2015 there are more major imponderables than I can recollect for many and election, making polls and predictions far less certain and less comparable to past situations than for many a year.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    If UKIP do win this seat then the Conservatives are going to be in some trouble come GE night - SO some of my Labour/NOM bets should definitely come in...
  • Mr. Pulpstar, I've long been of the view that if the Scots vote for independence that'll be great for the SNP north of the border and the Conservatives south of it.

    Of course, Angus Robertson, SNP MP, has called for the 2015 election to be postponed in the event of a Yes vote.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:

    " In many ways it is now a 4-way marginal ".
    No it isn't. One Nation Labour haven't got a chance in this part of the nation.

    Labour werent far off the Tories here in the locals this year. Both were behind UKIP. The Lib Dems seem to have collapsed in this constituency and have no chance.
    Neil

    I'm given to understand that Labour have an edge in the ground game too.

    All that hard work on the ground is bound to pay off for them in the end, Avery ;)

    I see this as a Tory hold but 40/1 on UKIP and 8/1 on Labour were both decent enough prices if the Lib Dems are really out of it (and they seem to be). If UKIP has come in a lot and Labour drifted then the value is probably with Labour now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Mr. Pulpstar, I've long been of the view that if the Scots vote for independence that'll be great for the SNP north of the border and the Conservatives south of it.

    Of course, Angus Robertson, SNP MP, has called for the 2015 election to be postponed in the event of a Yes vote.

    The one thing that it does not increase the probability of however is CON majority.

    I would say it make a Conservative Minority Gov't far more likely however.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Paddy hasn't pushed Labour out from 8-1.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Or a continuation of the coalition...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:

    " In many ways it is now a 4-way marginal ".
    No it isn't. One Nation Labour haven't got a chance in this part of the nation.

    Labour werent far off the Tories here in the locals this year. Both were behind UKIP. The Lib Dems seem to have collapsed in this constituency and have no chance.
    Neil

    I'm given to understand that Labour have an edge in the ground game too.

    All that hard work on the ground is bound to pay off for them in the end, Avery ;)

    I see this as a Tory hold but 40/1 on UKIP and 8/1 on Labour were both decent enough prices if the Lib Dems are really out of it (and they seem to be). If UKIP has come in a lot and Labour drifted then the value is probably with Labour now.
    We need a local constituency view. Politics tends to get more local the further west you go. Most of the voters in the constituency probably regard the Tamar with the same degree of suspicion that Farage regards the Channel.

    Someone will have eaten someone else's lobster and that will be the deciding factor.

  • Being a baldie I like this

    pic.twitter.com/fCqaPMHgRq
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Pulpstar said:

    Polruan said:

    There are too many uncertainties in this one... because it's Cornish, the LD share is likely to be robust with less LD-Lab switchers than elsewhere (or will it?); much of the seat is "proper" urban/industrial Cornwall, i.e. high levels of poverty, low levels of education which has, in the past predicated a strong Lab vote in times of increased economic inequality (but will that vote go UKIP instead?); the southern half of the constituency has a good share of instinctively conservative well-off retiree/second-homers (but will that small-c conservatism translate into Con or UKIP); and it's an almost entirely white electorate but proud of being a liberal community (so is that UKIP or LD?)

    In short, you could argue it all 4 ways. As the best proxy for "unpredictable" UKIP successes it's not a bad portfolio bet, perhaps, but I can't see that anyone can honestly claim to have a clue what colour this seat will be in 18 months time. And that's without even mentioning Mebyon.

    If there is genuinely no idea then all the parties default position is 3-1 (Not saying this is the case, but it is the starting point for a 4 horse race). Obviously 33/40-1 is the value.

    I suspect this seat will turn out to be a good value loser for UKIP - Probably come 2nd.

    But you never know....
    Paying some regard to previous form, you'd put LD and Con well in the lead, but it's hard to know how far. Picking nice random numbers based on instinct, anecdote, and the entrails of the still-warm chicken on the desk next to me, I'd say that the chance of neither LD nor Con is at least a fifth, so backing Lab and UKIP at current prices seems worthwhile. There's certainly a very plausible scenario for this being an area where the Con vote melts away to UKIP, the LD vote generally collapses with some Lab benefit, and Lab win the seat with <30%.
  • I've just had a flutter on LAB at 8/1 in this seat.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Being a baldie I like this

    pic.twitter.com/fCqaPMHgRq

    A competition with the Tories that Miliband wins!

    He gains the most gravitas. Dave looks distinctly odd.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:

    " In many ways it is now a 4-way marginal ".
    No it isn't. One Nation Labour haven't got a chance in this part of the nation.



    Labour werent far off the Tories here in the locals this year. Both were behind UKIP. The Lib Dems seem to have collapsed in this constituency and have no chance.
    Neil

    I'm given to understand that Labour have an edge in the ground game too.

    I think it will be very close between Conservative and Labour with UKIP a strong third and the Lib Dems in fourth but that may not be typical of what could be a fascinating part of the country at the next election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    I've just had a flutter on LAB at 8/1 in this seat.


    All that is left now is for Paddy's odds compiler to push Conservatives out to Evens and it will GSM !
  • Neil said:

    " In many ways it is now a 4-way marginal ".
    No it isn't. One Nation Labour haven't got a chance in this part of the nation.

    Labour werent far off the Tories here in the locals this year. Both were behind UKIP. The Lib Dems seem to have collapsed in this constituency and have no chance.
    The LDs are being stupidly underestimated at present. They have been an integral part of a government that is looking better by the day and will probably be viewed by political historians as exemplary or even great. Labour is a bubble which is about to burst in a revolting fashion.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited December 2013
    Polruan said:



    Paying some regard to previous form, you'd put LD and Con well in the lead

    The LDs couldnt even muster candidates for 2/3s of the wards in the constituency in the locals this year. I cant believe they're going to prioritise retaking this seat over holding on to the ones they still hold in Cornwall.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020
    Easy tory hold. If they are losing this Labour will have a substantial overall majority. Don't see that.

    Do you need a twitter account to get these links? I have resisted so far. Putting them into google never seems to produce anything.
  • Miliband has apparently said Balls will be shadow chancellor going into the next election:
    http://labourlist.org/2013/12/ed-balls-will-be-shadow-chancellor-going-into-the-next-election-says-ed-miliband/

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    David Smith ‏@dsmitheconomics 3m

    Interesting labour market detail: 93% of employment growth in latest 12 months was among UK nationals: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_338181.pdf … (p10)

    Gordon Brown should be happy..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Neil said:

    " In many ways it is now a 4-way marginal ".
    No it isn't. One Nation Labour haven't got a chance in this part of the nation.

    Labour werent far off the Tories here in the locals this year. Both were behind UKIP. The Lib Dems seem to have collapsed in this constituency and have no chance.
    The LDs are being stupidly underestimated at present. They have been an integral part of a government that is looking better by the day and will probably be viewed by political historians as exemplary or even great. Labour is a bubble which is about to burst in a revolting fashion.
    No. Seats that Liberal Democrats HOLD are definitely not underestimated by people on here. That 0.2% gap btween CON and LD here is critical.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Polruan said:

    There are too many uncertainties in this one... because it's Cornish, the LD share is likely to be robust with less LD-Lab switchers than elsewhere (or will it?); much of the seat is "proper" urban/industrial Cornwall, i.e. high levels of poverty, low levels of education which has, in the past predicated a strong Lab vote in times of increased economic inequality (but will that vote go UKIP instead?); the southern half of the constituency has a good share of instinctively conservative well-off retiree/second-homers (but will that small-c conservatism translate into Con or UKIP); and it's an almost entirely white electorate but proud of being a liberal community (so is that UKIP or LD?)

    In short, you could argue it all 4 ways. As the best proxy for "unpredictable" UKIP successes it's not a bad portfolio bet, perhaps, but I can't see that anyone can honestly claim to have a clue what colour this seat will be in 18 months time. And that's without even mentioning Mebyon.



    "In short, you could argue it all 4 ways."

    ... if that is even remotely true, and one of the four options is 33/1 then it is a fantastic bet
  • Incidentally, has Miliband apologised for this:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HM-4agdgBqk
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited December 2013

    RodCrosby said:

    Also rans come from nowhere to win a hypermarginal seat?

    I can't think at the moment of any recent analogy.

    There is no credible evidence that UKIP are on course to win even a single seat in 2015, and I'll eat my hat if this is it!

    There is no recent analogy for a party coming from nowhere to be a steady 10-15%+ in the polls. Out of interest, what would you count as 'credible evidence'? I have my doubts as to whether UKIP will win a seat but local election results and the by-election in Eastleigh certainly suggest the possibility.
    An evenly-spread 15% gets you nothing under FPTP, and I'll also eat my hat if UKIP get anywhere near that in 2015.

    Credible evidence? Well a couple of by-election wins would be a start. The SDP won 2 in 1981/2, including one with 50% of the vote. Come 1983 how many seats did they win?

    1 of the by-election seats was held. (doesn't look like UKIP are going to have a by-election win to defend)
    4 popular defectors held on. (UKIP won't have this as an option)
    1 seat was gained. (the Liberals essentially handed it to them on a plate. Again, no gift-horses on the horizon for UKIP)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    Neil said:

    Polruan said:



    Paying some regard to previous form, you'd put LD and Con well in the lead

    The LDs couldnt even muster candidates for 2/3s of the wards in the constituency in the locals this year. I cant believe they're going to prioritise retaking this seat over holding on to the ones they still hold in Cornwall.
    In Cornwall, I wouldn't read a huge amount into standing candidates. Some of the Independents are in effect allied with either the Conservative or the Liberal Democrat groups and in any case it's incredibly hard to defeat a well-known local entrenched Councillor anywhere.

    Looking at the seats, I think the LDs will hold North Cornwall and the Conservatives will probably hold SE Cornwall but none of the other seats is easy to call. Oddly enough, I could imagine the LDs winning St Austell and losing St Ives but it's far from clear.

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:

    " In many ways it is now a 4-way marginal ".
    No it isn't. One Nation Labour haven't got a chance in this part of the nation.

    Labour werent far off the Tories here in the locals this year. Both were behind UKIP. The Lib Dems seem to have collapsed in this constituency and have no chance.
    Neil

    I'm given to understand that Labour have an edge in the ground game too.

    All that hard work on the ground is bound to pay off for them in the end, Avery ;)

    I see this as a Tory hold but 40/1 on UKIP and 8/1 on Labour were both decent enough prices if the Lib Dems are really out of it (and they seem to be). If UKIP has come in a lot and Labour drifted then the value is probably with Labour now.
    We need a local constituency view. Politics tends to get more local the further west you go. Most of the voters in the constituency probably regard the Tamar with the same degree of suspicion that Farage regards the Channel.

    Someone will have eaten someone else's lobster and that will be the deciding factor.

    The problem is that it's a very diverse constituency. Even some of the wards are - a good friend of mine is a parish priest in the constituency and his benefice contains the outskirts of a seriously deprived ex-mining town and some pretty pleasant holiday villages. You'd get a totally different read in (say) Camborne versus Gweek, plus the anti-London sentiment makes it hard to get much of a straight answer in favour of any of the parties. That NOTA sentiment played in favour of the LDs until 2010, when it was a straight Lab-Con swing that decided the outcome. The only way to get any sense of what happens now would be pretty detailed groundwork right across the constituency (the dozen or so people I know who live there aren't enough to give any sense of it).

    "Eating someone else's lobster" is a euphemism I'm not familiar with. Intriguing.

  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Interesting seat. I notice there wasn't much evidence of tactical voting to keep out the Tory - in 2010 the Labour vote was down 12.4% and the LD vote went up only 1.6%
  • Incidentally, has Miliband apologised for this:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HM-4agdgBqk</block-quote

    Ed Miliband is a guttersnipe. He won't apologize , for sure.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020
    TGOHF said:

    David Smith ‏@dsmitheconomics 3m

    Interesting labour market detail: 93% of employment growth in latest 12 months was among UK nationals: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_338181.pdf … (p10)

    Gordon Brown should be happy..

    The Chart on the next page (p11) is worth a look to. The number of hours worked in the UK has increased by 17.6m in a year and is now over 30m more than it was in 2008. This is one of the reasons (along with substantial increases in personal allowances) why the figures showing average wage increases are a bit misleading.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Also rans come from nowhere to win a hypermarginal seat?

    I can't think at the moment of any recent analogy.

    There is no credible evidence that UKIP are on course to win even a single seat in 2015, and I'll eat my hat if this is it!

    There is no recent analogy for a party coming from nowhere to be a steady 10-15%+ in the polls. Out of interest, what would you count as 'credible evidence'? I have my doubts as to whether UKIP will win a seat but local election results and the by-election in Eastleigh certainly suggest the possibility.
    An evenly-spread 15% gets you nothing under FPTP, and I'll also eat my hat if UKIP get anywhere near that in 2015.

    Credible evidence? Well a couple of by-election wins would be a start. The SDP won 2 in 1981/2, including one with 50% of the vote. Come 1983 how many seats did they win?

    1 of the by-election seats was held. (doesn't look like UKIP are going to have a by-election win to defend)
    4 popular defectors held on. (UKIP won't have this as an option)
    1 seat was gained. (the Liberals essentially handed it to them on a plate. Again, no gift-horses on the horizon for UKIP)
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ukip-to-win-a-by-election-before-the-next-general-election

    Paddy Power say No at 2/5...
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    edited December 2013
    stodge said:

    Oddly enough, I could imagine the LDs winning St Austell and losing St Ives but it's far from clear.

    I think Andrew George is still pretty popular, perhaps due to opposing Coalition policies on a number of issues that are important to potential Labour voters. I can't see a LD-Con swing, and it's likely that Lab supporters will feel able to vote for him in order to insure against the risk of a Con gain (actually, I'll probably be voting there in 2015, thinking about it, and that's the approach I expect to take despite a general loathing for the LDs).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    edited December 2013
    Just looking through more detail of pay growth. Labour are in big trouble if they keep pushing it here. The signs are there for a significant recovery in pay growth in for the ca. 25m private sector workers out there over the next few months. The sector dragging down the headline rate of pay growth was financial services and construction had poor YoY growth too. The rest of the economy has seen pay growth close to 2% YoY.

    The vast majority of UK workers are going to see their pay rise faster than inflation next year, and while bankers and builders could struggle I don't think many will lose too much sleep over it.

    If a Labour bod is out there - seriously reconsider the pay growth/real earnings stuff for 2014. It will turn into lame duck argument. The signs are all there and with the financial services industry almost booming again, the headline rate of pay growth could rise much more quickly than anyone expects.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    David Smith ‏@dsmitheconomics 3m

    Interesting labour market detail: 93% of employment growth in latest 12 months was among UK nationals: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_338181.pdf … (p10)

    Gordon Brown should be happy..

    The Chart on the next page (p11) is worth a look to. The number of hours worked in the UK has increased by 17.6m in a year and is now over 30m more than it was in 2008. This is one of the reasons (along with substantial increases in personal allowances) why the figures showing average wage increases are a bit misleading.
    Amusingly see another tweet by David Smith - our dear chum Paul Krugman has based a NY Times opinion piece on recent Uk borrowing without factoring for the Royal Mail pension transfer - he really is a poor man's Blanchflower....

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited December 2013
    I must admit it is not great for the soul backing Labour. You start wishing for bad news, hoping the unemployment figures are up, inflation is up. I can't imagine what its like to actually SUPPORT the Labour party. That must be terrible indeed.

    I'll be back on the Blue team from 2015 I think, think that is where the value will be in the betting at any rate...
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:

    I must admit it is not great for the soul backing Labour. You start wishing for bad news, hoping the unemployment figures are up, inflation is up. I can't imagine what its like to actually SUPPORT the Labour party. That must be terrible indeed.

    It's probably much like backing the Tories was before 2010.
  • Disagree, Mr. Neil. Getting Brown out of office was clearly a good thing for the country.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Disagree, Mr. Neil. Getting Brown out of office was clearly a good thing for the country.

    Indeed a win/win bet.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Disagree, Mr. Neil. Getting Brown out of office was clearly a good thing for the country.

    I can see how someone who once said they thought the Labour party was opposed to success might think there is a huge difference between wanting Labour out and wanting the Tories out but there isnt really.

  • Pulpstar said:

    I must admit it is not great for the soul backing Labour. You start wishing for bad news, hoping the unemployment figures are up, inflation is up. I can't imagine what its like to actually SUPPORT the Labour party. That must be terrible indeed.

    I'll be back on the Blue team from 2015 I think, think that is where the value will be in the betting at any rate...

    To paraphrase a poet ; Deprivation is to Labour what daffodils were to Wordsworth.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    30 odd years for Ian Watkins sufficient punishment?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    isam said:

    30 odd years for Ian Watkins sufficient punishment?

    He will serve 19.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    30 odd years for Ian Watkins sufficient punishment?

    35 years.

    Can't imagine he'll be doing that again.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,711
    Pulpstar said:


    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Also rans come from nowhere to win a hypermarginal seat?

    I can't think at the moment of any recent analogy.

    There is no credible evidence that UKIP are on course to win even a single seat in 2015, and I'll eat my hat if this is it!

    There is no recent analogy for a party coming from nowhere to be a steady 10-15%+ in the polls. Out of interest, what would you count as 'credible evidence'? I have my doubts as to whether UKIP will win a seat but local election results and the by-election in Eastleigh certainly suggest the possibility.
    An evenly-spread 15% gets you nothing under FPTP, and I'll also eat my hat if UKIP get anywhere near that in 2015.

    Credible evidence? Well a couple of by-election wins would be a start. The SDP won 2 in 1981/2, including one with 50% of the vote. Come 1983 how many seats did they win?

    1 of the by-election seats was held. (doesn't look like UKIP are going to have a by-election win to defend)
    4 popular defectors held on. (UKIP won't have this as an option)
    1 seat was gained. (the Liberals essentially handed it to them on a plate. Again, no gift-horses on the horizon for UKIP)
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ukip-to-win-a-by-election-before-the-next-general-election

    Paddy Power say No at 2/5...
    1983 was quite exceptional. And, for people like me very disappointing. Post Falklands and all that.

  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Watkins will not survive for 19 years... nor should he
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    29 Years + 6 (Extended?)

    "He will have to serve at least two-thirds of the 29 years "

    Everyone knows 'at least' means 'at the most' with the UK justice system.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Are there any more major polls to come before christmas. The reason I ask because there is still a strong by-election list for this Thursday.
  • Good to see Simon Hughes being appointed Minister of State at Department of Justice. That will really get up the Tories noses.

    Smart move for Hughes and for Lib Dems as they struggle to hold onto seats like Bermondsey. I know from personal experience that he's a great MP and I've voted for him on many occasions even though I'm a Labour member.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    Smart move for Hughes and for Lib Dems as they struggle to hold onto seats like Bermondsey.

    You think it will help him hang on?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Welcome to the site HilmanMinx !
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited December 2013
    MaxPB said:

    The vast majority of UK workers are going to see their pay rise faster than inflation next year, and while bankers and builders could struggle I don't think many will lose too much sleep over it.

    Builders won't be struggling in 2014. I was talking to an architect yesterday who has been running a large practice for 35 years and who has offices in London, the SE and the Midlands. He confirmed what the figures show: the construction sector is going great guns again, after a dire few years, to the extent that construction companies are having difficulty sourcing enough materials. Even the Midlands and North, where activity had fallen off a cliff post 2009, is beginning to get back to a reasonable level of work for architect practices - and that means construction will follow and pay/self-employed income in the sector will rise.

    If you want to know what will be happening in the economy over the next year or so, it's always a good idea to talk to architects and to companies in the motor-industry supply chain.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Oh, forgot to update everyone on my meeting yesterday.

    It went well, we had a run through of my strengths, I had to declare any current equity holdings, he had a look through my personal stock portfolio and seemed impressed (started with £14k in 2011, worth £25k today excluding dividend payments). He said I would have to take a few courses.

    I took Bobajob's advice on dress code, thanks for that btw! Also took ALP's advice on meeting other analysts there. They are all a bit like me, geeky, focussed, highly analytical. We went for a drink afterwards, I get the feeling they don't like traders. :p

    He said I would have to go through the official vetting process with HR, but no formal interview, just a meeting like the one I already had with another senior analyst.

    All in all it was very positive. I think even if the pay wasn't as good as what's on offer I would take it, not that he needs to know! He said HR will contact me for a meeting, and to bring my passport etc...

    Crazy how fast these things move. :O
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,711
    MikeK said:

    Are there any more major polls to come before christmas. The reason I ask because there is still a strong by-election list for this Thursday.

    I'm glad I'm not politically active in any of those seats. My wife would be seriously p****d off if I'd been out campaigning over the last week!
  • Good luck MaxPB.
  • Good to hear, Max.
  • MikeK said:

    Are there any more major polls to come before christmas. The reason I ask because there is still a strong by-election list for this Thursday.

    Apparently one of them will show a polling lead crossover.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Welcome to the site HilmanMinx !

    Thank you. I've been a lurker for many years and today I decided to pluck up the courage to post. When you've not done it before it is quite a daunting experience.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,711

    Good to hear, Max.

    Yes, sounds like an exciting 2014 beckons. All the very best!

  • AveryLP said:

    FPT @RichardNabavi & @Charles
    ...OGH may have questions about Hopi's methodology but I think this misses the point..

    thanks for the kind comments - much appreciated.

    I would say though, that I think Mike's objection -from what he's said- is a perfectly reasonable one.

    I have tried to net off the impact of 2010 voters who now say they won't vote when calculating the impact in overall vote share terms - taking the DK/WV off and then calculating the 'share of the remainder' but it is a pretty labourious task, not helped by the way YG present this data.

    However, the changing proportion of people who say they'll vote is clearly as significant as how the remainder split. So I certainly agree with Mike that it would be far better to have the data for 2010 voters presented with non-voters included, rather than separated out. (this is, IIRC, the way populus do it). That way you'd see the impact of churn far more clearly.

    Right now, for example, if a group of 2010 LD voters who are undecided came back to the LDs, this would seem to depress the 'labour share' of 2010 LDs without Labour losing a single actual voter. Which would be quite confusing.

    As far as I can tell, however, 2010 LibDems who say they won't vote are consistently between 20-25 of the total, and it doesn't seem to have changed much over the last year. There seems to have been a slight increase in the number of 2010 Labour voters who now say they won't vote, and of those that will, slightly more say they'll vote LD/Tory/UKIP. This, combined with a lower proportion of LDs and Tories saying they'll vote Labour, accounts for much of Labour's share. For the LDs, the number of 2010 voters saying they won't vote seems to be reasonably steady, for the Tories, it may have changed, but frankly, the share going directly to Labour is both small and little change, so I doubt it would make much difference!
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    @HilmanMinx - Welcome, and you shouldn't feel too daunted posting - the banter is generally intended to be friendly

    @MaxPB - Congratulations - when the deal is signed would you mind letting on which Bank it is that will be benefiting from your analysis?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MaxPB said:

    Just looking through more detail of pay growth. Labour are in big trouble if they keep pushing it here. The signs are there for a significant recovery in pay growth in for the ca. 25m private sector workers out there over the next few months. The sector dragging down the headline rate of pay growth was financial services and construction had poor YoY growth too. The rest of the economy has seen pay growth close to 2% YoY.

    The vast majority of UK workers are going to see their pay rise faster than inflation next year, and while bankers and builders could struggle I don't think many will lose too much sleep over it.

    If a Labour bod is out there - seriously reconsider the pay growth/real earnings stuff for 2014. It will turn into lame duck argument. The signs are all there and with the financial services industry almost booming again, the headline rate of pay growth could rise much more quickly than anyone expects.

    Pay growth now is 0.8%
  • Mr. Minx, although I hadn't lurked for quite so long I well recall my trepidation prior to posting.
  • Neil said:


    Smart move for Hughes and for Lib Dems as they struggle to hold onto seats like Bermondsey.

    You think it will help him hang on?
    I think that Hughes has got to get into a public battle with Grayling on one of his more nasty measures. He's a great local MP but all Lib Dems facing Labour are going to find it challenging. The coalition is not popular round here. This was where Grant Shapps first tried to get into parliament.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Welcome to the site HilmanMinx !

    Thank you. I've been a lurker for many years and today I decided to pluck up the courage to post. When you've not done it before it is quite a daunting experience.

    You're amongst friends. Most PB labour supporters voted LD at the last GE. Your choice in 2015 is a hot topic on PB.
  • surbiton said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just looking through more detail of pay growth. Labour are in big trouble if they keep pushing it here. The signs are there for a significant recovery in pay growth in for the ca. 25m private sector workers out there over the next few months. The sector dragging down the headline rate of pay growth was financial services and construction had poor YoY growth too. The rest of the economy has seen pay growth close to 2% YoY.

    The vast majority of UK workers are going to see their pay rise faster than inflation next year, and while bankers and builders could struggle I don't think many will lose too much sleep over it.

    If a Labour bod is out there - seriously reconsider the pay growth/real earnings stuff for 2014. It will turn into lame duck argument. The signs are all there and with the financial services industry almost booming again, the headline rate of pay growth could rise much more quickly than anyone expects.

    Pay growth now is 0.8%
    Surbiton, what have I told you about confusing posters on here with facts.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Pulpstar said:

    29 Years + 6 (Extended?)

    "He will have to serve at least two-thirds of the 29 years "

    Everyone knows 'at least' means 'at the most' with the UK justice system.

    You couldn't be more wrong
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    The coalition is not popular round here.

    I live in the same constituency. I think the danger of joining Government is that he is seen as more of a Coalitionista and that could put off left-of-centre voters but there are loads of Tory votes to play for too so maybe he's hoping the net effect is positive if it makes them more inclined to support him to keep Labour out. He's got a tough job (and the 2012 results here were abysmal for the Lib Dems) but he's been written off plenty of times before. IOS who works for Labour and also lives in the constituency predicted that he wouldnt even bother to stand it was so obvious he would lose!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,711
    Look forward to the first Hughes/Grayling "discussion"!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    MaxPB said:

    Oh, forgot to update everyone on my meeting yesterday.

    It went well, we had a run through of my strengths, I had to declare any current equity holdings, he had a look through my personal stock portfolio and seemed impressed (started with £14k in 2011, worth £25k today excluding dividend payments). He said I would have to take a few courses.

    I took Bobajob's advice on dress code, thanks for that btw! Also took ALP's advice on meeting other analysts there. They are all a bit like me, geeky, focussed, highly analytical. We went for a drink afterwards, I get the feeling they don't like traders. :p

    He said I would have to go through the official vetting process with HR, but no formal interview, just a meeting like the one I already had with another senior analyst.

    All in all it was very positive. I think even if the pay wasn't as good as what's on offer I would take it, not that he needs to know! He said HR will contact me for a meeting, and to bring my passport etc...

    Crazy how fast these things move. :O

    When you're in the groove, you're in the groove. Run with it and good luck MaxPB.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    MaxPB said:

    Just looking through more detail of pay growth. Labour are in big trouble if they keep pushing it here. The signs are there for a significant recovery in pay growth in for the ca. 25m private sector workers out there over the next few months. The sector dragging down the headline rate of pay growth was financial services and construction had poor YoY growth too. The rest of the economy has seen pay growth close to 2% YoY.

    The vast majority of UK workers are going to see their pay rise faster than inflation next year, and while bankers and builders could struggle I don't think many will lose too much sleep over it.

    If a Labour bod is out there - seriously reconsider the pay growth/real earnings stuff for 2014. It will turn into lame duck argument. The signs are all there and with the financial services industry almost booming again, the headline rate of pay growth could rise much more quickly than anyone expects.

    No point posting that Max. I said the same back in September when EdM played the cost of living card, Labour think they have a real winner but have actually moved onto HMG turf and will lose the argument as the economy recovers and tax bribes are released. But they want to believe it's a foolproof plan so you can't persuade them otherwise.

    btw congrats on the job.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Looks like the end of an era in Liverpool - last printed edition of The Liverpool Daily Post.

    http://www.liverpooldailypost.co.uk/
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    surbiton said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just looking through more detail of pay growth. Labour are in big trouble if they keep pushing it here. The signs are there for a significant recovery in pay growth in for the ca. 25m private sector workers out there over the next few months. The sector dragging down the headline rate of pay growth was financial services and construction had poor YoY growth too. The rest of the economy has seen pay growth close to 2% YoY.

    The vast majority of UK workers are going to see their pay rise faster than inflation next year, and while bankers and builders could struggle I don't think many will lose too much sleep over it.

    If a Labour bod is out there - seriously reconsider the pay growth/real earnings stuff for 2014. It will turn into lame duck argument. The signs are all there and with the financial services industry almost booming again, the headline rate of pay growth could rise much more quickly than anyone expects.

    Pay growth now is 0.8%
    MaxPB was talking specifically about private sector pay growth which is running at much higher levels currently.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Neil said:


    Smart move for Hughes and for Lib Dems as they struggle to hold onto seats like Bermondsey.

    You think it will help him hang on?
    I think that Hughes has got to get into a public battle with Grayling on one of his more nasty measures. He's a great local MP but all Lib Dems facing Labour are going to find it challenging. The coalition is not popular round here. This was where Grant Shapps first tried to get into parliament.

    Welcome HilmanMinx (with one el), even though I think the L/Dems are a busted flush.
This discussion has been closed.