politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladbrokes now make it evens that TMay survive the year

First, like Mrs May

I'm green if she leaves in the first half. If she lasts that long, I think she'll make 2019.

Long grass....how can it be taking this long, it was all on the record. There are SFO investigations that have taken less time than this!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/01/labour-extends-ken-livingstones-suspension-over-antisemitism-claims

Minus 10th, like the wind chill.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5446435/Angela-Merkel-admits-no-areas-Germany.html

Shocked I tell you!

Devotees of the television series Dr Who will be familiar with the sonic screwdriver — a pocket sized piece of technology that has helped the eponymous hero out of any number of tight spots.

Initially the sonic screwdriver was used mainly to pick locks, but over time it acquired new and remarkable uses. Later Doctors deployed it to hack into computers, disable enemy weaponry and even to destroy a Dalek. No matter how devilish their situation seemed, the sonic screwdriver offered an all-purpose get out of jail free card for scriptwriters.

I do not know if Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and other leading Brexiters are big fans of Dr Who, but there is much evidence of sonic screwdriver strategy in their thinking. Their mystical faith is most obvious in discussions about the Irish border.


https://www.ft.com/content/2b5894ac-1d2f-11e8-aaca-4574d7dabfb6

Following the discussion from the last thread, as people grow older their lives become smaller, and is complimented by fear of life...change, personal decay, losing capital. And that is what underpins the inexorable shift to right wing philosophies with age more than anything else.

Right wing politics has nothing positive at all to say about anything. It preys on fear and thrives on negativity. That is why something like immigration is a gift that just keeps on giving to the right.

tyson said:

Following the discussion from the last thread, as people grow older their lives become smaller, and is complimented by fear of life...change, personal decay, losing capital. And that is what underpins the inexorable shift to right wing philosophies with age more than anything else.

Right wing politics has nothing positive at all to say about anything. It preys on fear and thrives on negativity. That is why something like immigration is a gift that just keeps on giving to the right.

Tradition, patriotism, family, opportunity, wealth creation, security, law and order, self reliance and responsibility.

9 positive right wing values in less than 30 seconds

glw said:

FPT:

FrancisUrquhart said:

glw said:

TGOHF said:

Floater said:

https://order-order.com/2018/03/01/another-labour-council-leader-quits-corbynista-bullying-intimidation/

Just read that guys letter to residents

A tax on those that use self service checkouts ? Genius.

More "thinking" along the same lines as Corbyn's robot tax. Never mind the 1970s, they will be taking us back to the early 19th century.

the manifesto had it that it would be a legal requirement to have a “driver” on the docklands light rail. I personally think we need to bring lift attendents back, I don’t think the public can be trusted to press the correct buttons.

Corbyn's young fans will be in for a hell of shock if he is ever PM.

Is this another one to file under

"well ... quite"

tyson said:

Following the discussion from the last thread, as people grow older their lives become smaller, and is complimented by fear of life...change, personal decay, losing capital. And that is what underpins the inexorable shift to right wing philosophies with age more than anything else.

Right wing politics has nothing positive at all to say about anything. It preys on fear and thrives on negativity. That is why something like immigration is a gift that just keeps on giving to the right.

oh Tyson

Which party had a politician that set out to "scare the white man" to win re-election?

Some of the most racist people I have ever known thought themselves as "progressives" and would never have voted tory in their life.

I don't see a need to get into the anti semitism on the left and the failure of Labour to get to grips with it

FrancisUrquhart said:

Deliveroo is one business I don't get. It seems a very expensive way to get a takeaway from a crap chain restaurant, but then I wasn't effected by the KFC closures nor care if Nando runs out of chicken.

Near me the pubs have taken to letting people order food as take out. We've at least five properly good pubs, great food and lovely old school pub buildings.

My advice - go to the pub instead.

Floater said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

Following the discussion from the last thread, as people grow older their lives become smaller, and is complimented by fear of life...change, personal decay, losing capital. And that is what underpins the inexorable shift to right wing philosophies with age more than anything else.

Right wing politics has nothing positive at all to say about anything. It preys on fear and thrives on negativity. That is why something like immigration is a gift that just keeps on giving to the right.

Tradition, patriotism, family, opportunity, wealth creation, security, law and order, self reliance and responsibility.

9 positive right wing values in less than 30 seconds

Hate - a left wing value

Plus chippyness

MarkHopkins said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

glw said:

FPT:

FrancisUrquhart said:

glw said:

TGOHF said:

Floater said:

https://order-order.com/2018/03/01/another-labour-council-leader-quits-corbynista-bullying-intimidation/

Just read that guys letter to residents

A tax on those that use self service checkouts ? Genius.

More "thinking" along the same lines as Corbyn's robot tax. Never mind the 1970s, they will be taking us back to the early 19th century.

the manifesto had it that it would be a legal requirement to have a “driver” on the docklands light rail. I personally think we need to bring lift attendents back, I don’t think the public can be trusted to press the correct buttons.

Corbyn's young fans will be in for a hell of shock if he is ever PM.

It won't just be Uber that is gone. With his anti-tech / anti ZHC / high tax, there going to be a lot of businesses that millennials love which won't have a profitable business model.

If Corbyn actually go to be PM, and actually started implementing this stuff, the brain drain would be epic.

His total lack of understanding of business is scary as hell. His crush the city to help the genuine economy reteroic was absolutely bonkers. How am I suppose to gain funding for a new startup if he does that?

Floater said:

tyson said:

Following the discussion from the last thread, as people grow older their lives become smaller, and is complimented by fear of life...change, personal decay, losing capital. And that is what underpins the inexorable shift to right wing philosophies with age more than anything else.

Right wing politics has nothing positive at all to say about anything. It preys on fear and thrives on negativity. That is why something like immigration is a gift that just keeps on giving to the right.

oh Tyson

Which party had a politician that set out to "scare the white man" to win re-election?

Some of the most racist people I have ever known thought themselves as "progressives" and would never have voted tory in their life.

I don't see a need to get into the anti semitism on the left and the failure of Labour to get to grips with it

Brexit won on immigration. Trump won on immigration. Italy 2018...that’s all they talk about, and why the country is lurching to the right next week.

Immigration is a gift horse to right wing populists.

FrancisUrquhart said:

His total lack of understanding of business is scary as hell. His crush the city to help the genuine economy reteroic was absolutely bonkers. How am I suppose to gain funding for a new startup if he does that?

It's merely the next step in Miliband's good business/bad business nonsense.

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

His total lack of understanding of business is scary as hell. His crush the city to help the genuine economy reteroic was absolutely bonkers. How am I suppose to gain funding for a new startup if he does that?

It's merely the next step in Miliband's good business/bad business nonsense.

Milibands thumb on the scale stuff was based on a now debunked book, it was nonsense but I didn't really believe with Eddie spheroids as chancellor we would see that much. Instead we have a self confessed marxist as potential chancellor.

tyson said:

Following the discussion from the last thread, as people grow older their lives become smaller, and is complimented by fear of life...change, personal decay, losing capital. And that is what underpins the inexorable shift to right wing philosophies with age more than anything else.

Right wing politics has nothing positive at all to say about anything. It preys on fear and thrives on negativity. That is why something like immigration is a gift that just keeps on giving to the right.

And yet, for someone who identifies very strongly with the Left, you seemed consumed by darkness yourself, whilst most right-wing posters of your age on here are filled with joie de vivre.

Mr. Urquhart, the People's Bank will offer you a modest loan, funded by the 80% income tax rate on the capitalist pigdog segment of society.

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

Following the discussion from the last thread, as people grow older their lives become smaller, and is complimented by fear of life...change, personal decay, losing capital. And that is what underpins the inexorable shift to right wing philosophies with age more than anything else.

Right wing politics has nothing positive at all to say about anything. It preys on fear and thrives on negativity. That is why something like immigration is a gift that just keeps on giving to the right.

Tradition, patriotism, family, opportunity, wealth creation, security, law and order, self reliance and responsibility.

9 positive right wing values in less than 30 seconds

The right uses pretty much all those values in a highly destructive way....tradition, patriotism, family...can all be easily conflated with racism. Security and law and order..enough said. Self reliance, responsibility and wealth creation.....all are generally used devisively to attack people who rely on welfare.

Opportunity.......possibly I’ll give you that, Thatcher had an intuitive understanding of using the concept of opportunity to lure traditional Labour types....

What a load of guff.

Though, I suppose at least you've conceded that socialism doesn't promise any sort of opportunity.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Deliveroo is one business I don't get. It seems a very expensive way to get a takeaway from a crap chain restaurant, but then I wasn't effected by the KFC closures nor care if Nando runs out of chicken / Jamie Italian chain goes bust (other than obviously people losing work).

When I get fish and chips on a Sunday, I walk one and a half miles to the shop, then either walk or get a minicab back. Deliveroo would save me the walk there and cost me the same as the cab back. Whether there is enough demand to sustain them and their various rivals is open to doubt but I can see the attraction. I'd use them myself but walking to the fish and chip shop is the only exercise I get.

MarqueeMark said:

tyson said:

Floater said:

tyson said:

Following the discussion from the last thread, as people grow older their lives become smaller, and is complimented by fear of life...change, personal decay, losing capital. And that is what underpins the inexorable shift to right wing philosophies with age more than anything else.

Right wing politics has nothing positive at all to say about anything. It preys on fear and thrives on negativity. That is why something like immigration is a gift that just keeps on giving to the right.

oh Tyson

Which party had a politician that set out to "scare the white man" to win re-election?

Some of the most racist people I have ever known thought themselves as "progressives" and would never have voted tory in their life.

I don't see a need to get into the anti semitism on the left and the failure of Labour to get to grips with it

Brexit won on immigration. Trump won on immigration. Italy 2018...that’s all they talk about, and why the country is lurching to the right next week.

Immigration is a gift horse to right wing populists.

And yet, the left can't help themselves opening all the borders to "rub the Right's nose in diversity" - and then losing elections. There's surely a simple answer here.....

205 000 non EU migrants to the UK last year suggests right wing governments are notngood at controlling it either. Merkel is Centre Right too...

MikeSmithson said:

Is somebody going to speak up for Max Mosely?

Well, you ran a hagiography of Lord Rennard yesterday....ball in your court, OGH.

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

tyson said:

Floater said:

tyson said:

Following the discussion from the last thread, as people grow older their lives become smaller, and is complimented by fear of life...change, personal decay, losing capital. And that is what underpins the inexorable shift to right wing philosophies with age more than anything else.

Right wing politics has nothing positive at all to say about anything. It preys on fear and thrives on negativity. That is why something like immigration is a gift that just keeps on giving to the right.

oh Tyson

Which party had a politician that set out to "scare the white man" to win re-election?

Some of the most racist people I have ever known thought themselves as "progressives" and would never have voted tory in their life.

I don't see a need to get into the anti semitism on the left and the failure of Labour to get to grips with it

Brexit won on immigration. Trump won on immigration. Italy 2018...that’s all they talk about, and why the country is lurching to the right next week.

Immigration is a gift horse to right wing populists.

And yet, the left can't help themselves opening all the borders to "rub the Right's nose in diversity" - and then losing elections. There's surely a simple answer here.....

205 000 non EU migrants to the UK last year suggests right wing governments are notngood at controlling it either. Merkel is Centre Right too...

They're all useless at it, yes. Personally I don't mind open borders but most people don't like them.

FrancisUrquhart said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Deliveroo is one business I don't get. It seems a very expensive way to get a takeaway from a crap chain restaurant, but then I wasn't effected by the KFC closures nor care if Nando runs out of chicken / Jamie Italian chain goes bust (other than obviously people losing work).

When I get fish and chips on a Sunday, I walk one and a half miles to the shop, then either walk or get a minicab back. Deliveroo would save me the walk there and cost me the same as the cab back. Whether there is enough demand to sustain them and their various rivals is open to doubt but I can see the attraction. I'd use them myself but walking to the fish and chip shop is the only exercise I get.

My understanding though is deliveroo isn't for random takeways, justEat is the system that connects those to the customer. Deliveroo business model is about getting food from chain restaurants, that don't do takeaway, to consumers at home.

Deliveroo around these parts is the only way to get something that isn't Indian/Chinese/Thai/Pizza etc delivered. I sometimes get the local posh chippy deliverooed, or a spaghetti vongole from a nice indy Italian place.

https://twitter.com/womaninhavana/status/968950585490919424

MikeSmithson said:

Is somebody going to speak up for Max Mosely?

He was, apparently, effective in Formula One management.
And he was 21 or 22 when he put his name to that leaflet, published on behalf of his father.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mortimer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Deliveroo is one business I don't get. It seems a very expensive way to get a takeaway from a crap chain restaurant, but then I wasn't effected by the KFC closures nor care if Nando runs out of chicken / Jamie Italian chain goes bust (other than obviously people losing work).

When I get fish and chips on a Sunday, I walk one and a half miles to the shop, then either walk or get a minicab back. Deliveroo would save me the walk there and cost me the same as the cab back. Whether there is enough demand to sustain them and their various rivals is open to doubt but I can see the attraction. I'd use them myself but walking to the fish and chip shop is the only exercise I get.

My understanding though is deliveroo isn't for random takeways, justEat is the system that connects those to the customer. Deliveroo business model is about getting food from chain restaurants, that don't do takeaway, to consumers at home.

Deliveroo around these parts is the only way to get something that isn't Indian/Chinese/Thai/Pizza etc delivered. I sometimes get the local posh chippy deliverooed, or a spaghetti vongole from a nice indy Italian place.

You better prepare for a lot more walking to the chippy / Italian when jezza becomes PM....

Cripes.

In London, also, some wine shops are on deliveroo. Very handy when we were Air BnBing in Dulwich.

Casino_Royale said:

tyson said:

Following the discussion from the last thread, as people grow older their lives become smaller, and is complimented by fear of life...change, personal decay, losing capital. And that is what underpins the inexorable shift to right wing philosophies with age more than anything else.

Right wing politics has nothing positive at all to say about anything. It preys on fear and thrives on negativity. That is why something like immigration is a gift that just keeps on giving to the right.

And yet, for someone who identifies very strongly with the Left, you seemed consumed by darkness yourself, whilst most right-wing posters of your age on here are filled with joie de vivre.

Mate, I get pretty tired with your personal comments. I’d rather you not please make any personal references about me. Please stick to the point that I make rather than making assumptions about my lifestyle or wot not. Ditto Ishmael above.

I don’t mind robust debate like Floater.....you can call me a dickhead if you want, but I really do not care for people making personal assumptions about me. And if I have ever posted anything on this site that has given the impression that I am happy to engage in personal debate, I really didn’t mean that.

O/T

Interesting:

"When I first came to Japan in 1990, I was astonished that the Statute of Limitations for murder was fifteen years in this country. That meant that if the police didn’t arrest a murderer within that time, it would be impossible to charge him with the crime…even if he publicly confessed."

https://tokyo5.wordpress.com/tag/statute-of-limitations/

https://twitter.com/election_data/status/969226602516303872

Jeremy Corbyn wants Britain to ‘stay in a customs union’, according to the BBC . . . but . . . (we) cannot ‘stay’ in ‘a’ customs union, because that would require us to join something which does not at present exist.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/03/jeremy-corbyns-custom-union-fantasy/

Scott_P said:

Devotees of the television series Dr Who will be familiar with the sonic screwdriver — a pocket sized piece of technology that has helped the eponymous hero out of any number of tight spots.

Initially the sonic screwdriver was used mainly to pick locks, but over time it acquired new and remarkable uses. Later Doctors deployed it to hack into computers, disable enemy weaponry and even to destroy a Dalek. No matter how devilish their situation seemed, the sonic screwdriver offered an all-purpose get out of jail free card for scriptwriters.

I do not know if Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and other leading Brexiters are big fans of Dr Who, but there is much evidence of sonic screwdriver strategy in their thinking. Their mystical faith is most obvious in discussions about the Irish border.


https://www.ft.com/content/2b5894ac-1d2f-11e8-aaca-4574d7dabfb6

Boris might prefer you to use deus ex machina rather than your fancy modern analogy

Ishmael_Z said:

The canonical spelling is Mosley, I believe.

Hard to see how he can not be prosecuted for perjury, in light of Archer and Huhne. I suppose he could argue that it's a convention that as election agent he signs everything off, and the fact it's passed over his desk doesn't mean he has read, or agrees with, it.

But probably not important, this was 20+ years before Agent COB was scrupulously protecting our secrets from the Czech Peril, even, and I'm not sure who it would embarrass (other than Max, obv).

What happened to Phil Woolas agent when Phil got prosecuted? I honestly can't remember.

Cyclefree said:

I'm amazed she still wants to do the bloody job. She gets paid rubbish for it. She gets nothing but abuse from her own side. And even if she gets Brexit more or less through she'll be blamed for evermore.

I'd be tempted to say "Stuff you" the next time BoJo or JRM or whoever starts whingeing, hand over the file and say "You sort it. Good luck. You'll need it." and then sod off for a long walking holiday in the Rockies.

I did like her rather pointed comment / joke last night

"“so self-effacing is Matt, that in this centenary year of female suffrage, the year of Time’s Up and Me Too, he has demonstrated just what a stalwart ally he is, by heroically forcing the female Chairman of the Press Gallery to sit in silence and listen to him speak.”

Ouch

MikeSmithson said:

Is somebody going to speak up for Max Mosely?

Is he the Mad Max David Davis was warning us about?

Casino_Royale said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

tyson said:

Following the discussion from the last thread, as people grow older their lives become smaller, and is complimented by fear of life...change, personal decay, losing capital. And that is what underpins the inexorable shift to right wing philosophies with age more than anything else.

Right wing politics has nothing positive at all to say about anything. It preys on fear and thrives on negativity. That is why something like immigration is a gift that just keeps on giving to the right.

And yet, for someone who identifies very strongly with the Left, you seemed consumed by darkness yourself, whilst most right-wing posters of your age on here are filled with joie de vivre.

Mate, I get pretty tired with your personal comments. I’d rather you not please make any personal references about me. Please stick to the point that I make rather than making assumptions about my lifestyle or wot not. Ditto Ishmael above.

I don’t mind robust debate like Floater.....you can call me a dickhead if you want, but I really do not care for people making personal assumptions about me. And if I have ever posted anything on this site that has given the impression that I am happy to engage in personal debate, I really didn’t mean that.

You are happy to make personal comments about others, you just don't like it when the tables are turned.

You once compared me to a murderer and a paedophile because I disagreed with you about fox hunting.

So, fuck off, old boy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STIvNjWobzA

Mr Tyson,

Do you often look back and wish you'd retained all the wisdom and experience you had when you were eighteen?

That may give you a clue as to why people's voting patterns as they get older.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Deliveroo is one business I don't get. It seems a very expensive way to get a takeaway from a crap chain restaurant, but then I wasn't effected by the KFC closures nor care if Nando runs out of chicken / Jamie Italian chain goes bust (other than obviously people losing work).

In principle you get a better meal from Deliveroo than Just Eat because they deal with fine dining (in relative terms) restaurants who see takeaway as another sales channel and don't want to do the delivery themselves. I believe Deliveroo charge those restaurants a 30% commission.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Ishmael_Z said:

The canonical spelling is Mosley, I believe.

Hard to see how he can not be prosecuted for perjury, in light of Archer and Huhne. I suppose he could argue that it's a convention that as election agent he signs everything off, and the fact it's passed over his desk doesn't mean he has read, or agrees with, it.

But probably not important, this was 20+ years before Agent COB was scrupulously protecting our secrets from the Czech Peril, even, and I'm not sure who it would embarrass (other than Max, obv).

What happened to Phil Woolas agent when Phil got prosecuted? I honestly can't remember.

It's not an election agent issue.

He said during his trial that there was no such leaflet or he was not involved in it. Now we know that there was such a leaflet and that he was involved in it. Depending on precisely what was asked and what he answered - and what other questions he was asked about - the allegation is that he may have lied on oath about the existence of the leaflet rather than about whether he agreed with its contents.

In order to establish perjury, there will need to be a very careful analysis of his evidence in the witness box and the extent to which this new evidence casts doubt on it to the extent that the offence of perjury can be established. That is the issue for the CPS.

The other issue is one for the newspaper i.e. if he did not tell the truth about this leaflet is there a basis on which it can claim that the court's judgment would have been different in that libel trial so that the verdict can be overturned and the damages recovered. It would obviously be easier to do that if he's found guilty of perjury but even if no prosecution is brought the newspaper might still be able to argue that the libel verdict should be set aside.

Regardless of that there is the fact that his somewhat unsavoury past is now being brought to light which is probably not what he wanted or expected.

FF43 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Deliveroo is one business I don't get. It seems a very expensive way to get a takeaway from a crap chain restaurant, but then I wasn't effected by the KFC closures nor care if Nando runs out of chicken / Jamie Italian chain goes bust (other than obviously people losing work).

In principle you get a better meal from Deliveroo than Just Eat because they deal with fine dining (in relative terms) restaurants who see takeaway as another sales channel and don't want to do the delivery themselves. I believe Deliveroo charge those restaurants a 30% commission.

I understand this, but it is probably just me but if I want a really good meal, I am happy to go to the restaurant (+ I get an "experience" with friends / family etc).

FF43 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Deliveroo is one business I don't get. It seems a very expensive way to get a takeaway from a crap chain restaurant, but then I wasn't effected by the KFC closures nor care if Nando runs out of chicken / Jamie Italian chain goes bust (other than obviously people losing work).

In principle you get a better meal from Deliveroo than Just Eat because they deal with fine dining (in relative terms) restaurants who see takeaway as another sales channel and don't want to do the delivery themselves. I believe Deliveroo charge those restaurants a 30% commission.

Having looked at the price differences on Deliveroo compared to the actual restaurant menu, I think it is the customers who pay the 30%.

Beverley_C said:

Recidivist said:

Remember that time when we woke up to find that the Conservatives had quietly dumped Ian Duncan Smith? What are the chances they will do the same with Brexit?

Nil. They need to dump the swivel-eyed Brexit loons first. After that they can ask the EU to stop the process whilst they take a realistic look at things and come up with a coherent plan for either IN or OUT.

A press on the PAUSE button would be ideal. Some very hard thinking to get a coherent plan is urgently needed.

Of course they should have done this before pressing the Article 50 button. God only knows why they didn't. The timing of Article 50 was about the only leverage the UK had.

Beverley_C said:

Recidivist said:

Remember that time when we woke up to find that the Conservatives had quietly dumped Ian Duncan Smith? What are the chances they will do the same with Brexit?

Nil. They need to dump the swivel-eyed Brexit loons first. After that they can ask the EU to stop the process whilst they take a realistic look at things and come up with a coherent plan for either IN or OUT.

Brexit will happen. It is a decision the country made and that decision must be honoured. We could (and do) argue all day about what flavour of Brexit is best, but a-Brexit we will go.

I would not quite die in a ditch to get a Norway-type deal but that is what the Remainers of varying off-putting character should be agitating for. The biggest lie that needs to be exploded is that staying in the SM/CU is "not leaving".

That should be the focus.

Cyclefree said:

Beverley_C said:

Recidivist said:

Remember that time when we woke up to find that the Conservatives had quietly dumped Ian Duncan Smith? What are the chances they will do the same with Brexit?

Nil. They need to dump the swivel-eyed Brexit loons first. After that they can ask the EU to stop the process whilst they take a realistic look at things and come up with a coherent plan for either IN or OUT.

A press on the PAUSE button would be ideal. Some very hard thinking to get a coherent plan is urgently needed.

Of course they should have done this before pressing the Article 50 button. God only knows why they didn't. The timing of Article 50 was about the only leverage the UK had.

The EU conveniently took away the A50 leverage by refusing to have any talks until A50 was enacted.

Then the EU insisted on 3 issues first (including the Ireland one) before discussing trade.

So that's why we're here and there appears to not be a plan, because the EU response to any UK plan is simply "do what you're told". And that attitude is why we voted for Brexit in the first place.