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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huge variation opens up in the polling for November’s US MidTe

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Not a good day for Tom Watson and Labour in the papers.
https://twitter.com/AnastasiaZaw/status/968967031281344512
Historically they have been pretty good indicator of Mid Term results.
The number of incumbent retirements is also pretty suggestive.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/shy-voters-probably-arent-why-the-polls-missed-trump/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/13/why-the-polls-missed-in-2016-was-it-shy-trump-supporters-after-all/?utm_term=.26bfbcf874b5
The other issue is how linked support is for/against Trump, and voting for your Congressman. I could imagine Democrats quite enthused to land a blow against Trump. Are Trump supporters going to be inclined to go out and support him via the same Congressmen who have been sniffy about him at best - downright anti at worst? I suspect differential polling between the two groups might significantly help the Dems, whatever confusing message the polling is sending.
But however it pans out in November, the read across to Trump 2020 is very difficult.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/28/trump-background-checks-gun-control
I always hoped that his naturally combative nature wouldn't let him be exclusively right-wing- populists respond to popular moods. If he sticks to it (if big if) that'd be a bit of a game-changer for gun reform and perhaps for Trump's image.
Fantastic to see Mosley taken down a peg or two, and a very good day for those of us who don’t want to see the freedom of the press regulated and by rich men who got caught with their pants down.
Given that the media narrative indicated that President Clinton was a relatively easy victor I see your point. They don't really seem to have come to terms with both the fact that Trump won and, more specifically, how he won.
Is there a reason your side use IDS? Do you think he gives the quiet assurance that elderly Leavers crave?
Trump clearly doesn't understand what his administration's policy is, and the people around him are just doing normal right-wing things.
Might be worth letting that sink in.....
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/969116194967089152
In special elections since 2016 suburban whites have swung hard against Republican candidates.
Forget the American media narrative about the rock solid Trump support amongst his core of rural white Conservatives, they were always voting Republican and always will in the immediate future. The swing demo was suburban whites and they get far fewer news paper articles written about them but they are moving away.
On-topic: indeed, Mr. Smithson. Not a market I'm tempted by.
Miss Vance, cheers for posting that Trimble tweet. We'll see how much coverage it gets...
Hope everyone, particularly in the central belt, is taking it easy today. Heavy snow here right now, and it looks like circa six inches or so has settled (always find it hard estimating that, but I did have a small snow drift on the front garden).
In better weather news, F1 testing is underway: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43190407
Blair would be Leave's biggest asset.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/02/28/trump-hope-hicks-217209
The White House sounds a pretty depressing place to be right now.
And Manafort goes on trial in September.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/10/cameron-best-prime-minister-since-thatcher/
I am no leaver, and listening to Blair on the radio this morning, I was thinking he's making some good arguments, but it's a shame it's him making them...
Going through my own planes trains and automobiles....I’m desperate to get home after a couple of weeks in Italy....
Tuesday after sitting excitedly on the plane at Florence, on time, plane taxiing, there is a strange noise..we are marshalled off and after a long wait offered a refund
Wednesday....the London flight is delayed and I do not fancy landing into Gatwick at some god foresaken time so I buy another ticket for.....
Thursday.... looking out of the window in Florence there is heavy snow and the airport is completely disrupted according to the news......so another day here beckons..
There is always tomorrow.....but thanks to Brexit this is costing me a heck of a lot more money....
Remain 48....
But more seriously, given Blair is the least trusted politician on the MP, I think one can probably infer IDS is more trusted:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-tony-blair-regarded-as-least-trustworthy-politician-to-lead-campaign-for-uk-to-stay-10298489.html
Too many Democrats simply hate Trump too much, and it's clouding their judgment.
It’s a shame Joe Biden is probably too old now.
I've been surprised at that.
You think trust in Blair has grown?
Lord Trimble argues that politics is driving the Irish government's approach - or did you not read that, just pasted one of your 'loons' posts?
That said, I think this is just the middle stage in the usual Euro-negotiation cycle:
Polite discussion - time-wasting - recriminations - crisis - recriminations - fresh talks - late-night sessions - fudged deal
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2006
Don't read too much into the midterms and the 2020 Presidential election though, both Clinton in 1994 and Obama in 2010 saw their party lose control of Congress and Reagan's party suffered heavy losses in 1982 and all were comfortably re elected two years later. George W Bush saw the Republicans make net gains in the 2002 midterms but 2 years later had he lost Ohio it would have been President Kerry. Similarly Carter's Democrats, although losing seats in 1978 kept control of Congress but two years later he lost his bid for re election to Ronald Reagan
So I'm not sure we can assume that 8% estimate still holds.
To be honest I'm not really sure where that 8% even comes from.
In 2006 the Dems won the popular vote by 8% and comfortably had a majority, 233 - 202.
It's telling that those who could say the same things and get a better reception (Javid is a good example) have the self awareness to realise that telling the people they made the wrong decision is the best way to guarantee support for Leave.
https://twitter.com/Resjudicatamyft/status/968834045814730752
However the odds do favour the Democrats taking the House in the midterms a bit more. Since WW2 a first term President has seen his party lose control of the House 4 times in the midterms in 1946, 1954, 1994 and 2010 and the opposition party kept control of the House and increased its majority in 1970 and 1982 and 1990
On a related matter someone in Northern Ireland, who I don't think is a supporter of Sinn Fein, explained why he doesn't expect them to take their seats at Westminster. SF think Brexit and the fallout is doing more for a united Ireland than decades of bombing and shooting.
a) a confrontational shit
b) an incompetent shit or
c) French
If Brexiteers believe no border between NI and the RoI is necessary post-Brexit with one in the CU and the other outside, why do they believe one would be needed between NI and the mainland if the former was inside the CU and the other outside?