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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huge variation opens up in the polling for November’s US MidTe

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,927
    For those interested in such things, I saw the Hamilton musical last weekend. It is a superb show.

    My only quibble is that the lead actor is slightly underpowered - a touch unfortunate when playing a man supposed to be the most charismatic politician of his age...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254


    As you say, there actually isn’t a coherent headbanger plan to leave the EU.

    More importantly, there isn't a coherent Remainer plan to stay in the EU. Their groping around for one does make a WTO exit all the more likely, however.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Mr. Pulpstar, hope the horses are alright.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    In highly developed economies, you cannot have a customs union without a single market. They are inseparable. You cannot be in the EU custom union and not be part of the single market. If you are outside the EU customs union, your economic activity in a EU member state will be subject to the ever-changing legal regulations laid down by the EU institutions and integrated into the law of the member state where you do business.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Mr. Mark, disagree.

    They'll seek to embugger the negotiations, then use Grieve's 'meaningful vote' to vote it down, bringing about a second referendum. The electorate will be presented with the choice between remaining in, or having a terrible deal.

    Not certain, but certainly plausible.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    edited March 2018


    As you say, there actually isn’t a coherent headbanger plan to leave the EU.

    More importantly, there isn't a coherent Remainer plan to stay in the EU. Their groping around for one does make a WTO exit all the more likely, however.
    I think most Remainers would bite your hand off if you offered the Norway option. It is what they should be hammering home and fight through the "not what they voted for" fallacy.

    They sadly have fallen for the "betrayal of the public" line about SM/CU. Whereas it is of course nothing of the sort.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    An interesting conversation on the radio this mornimg suggested that if anyone tries to drive their car in a red weather zone they will negate their insurance. Bet not many have thought of that
    Not sure I believe that but that doesn't mean it is not an idiotic thing to do, certainly without 4 wheel driver and considerable experience. It scares me when on snow and you still see peoples' brake lights coming on to control the speed of the car. Some of them will be automatics and have limited choice but others you need to stay away from.

    I made a late run to Tescos last night. The roads here were distinctly tricky and there were vehicles stuck all over the place. And we are to the north of the worst affected parts. Its more than 5 years since we had snow like this.
    It does make sense. A red weather zone is an explicit request not to travel and listening to the Police this morning thay are saying do not travel so if you ignore that you could be considered to be acting negligently.

    Of course it only applies to the red weather zones
    I am pretty sure that those people who spent their night stuck on the A80 would see the sense in your argument.
    there are 2 different issues, 1. is it wise to drive in these conditions and 2. would doing so affect one's right to claim on one's insurance, and the answer to both is an emphatic no. There's the danger that people stuck on the A80 hear and believe this sort of misinformation, and freeze to death because they daren't drive home even when the snow plough has been and freed them, and so freeze to death.
    The people on the A80 show another problem. Many people are deluded into believing that they were really some Nordic rally driver in a prior life who can cope in conditions mere mortals can't. And then they get stuck behind a jack knifed lorry.

    I agree I am not aware of any term in an insurance policy that excludes idiotic behaviour and I don't think such a term would be compatible with the Road Traffic Acts.
    So here's a sad story: I am all geared up to go cruisin' in my Defender td5, to prove that I can, and the engine won't start, and I ring the bloke who fixes it. Third identical call of the morning for him, and it's because Land Rover glow plugs are so useless they die after about 6 years, but winters have been so mild it hasn't mattered till now. Short term fix = squirt ether in the air intake. Medium term, google nearest Toyota dealer.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,723

    In highly developed economies, you cannot have a customs union without a single market. They are inseparable. You cannot be in the EU custom union and not be part of the single market. If you are outside the EU customs union, your economic activity in a EU member state will be subject to the ever-changing legal regulations laid down by the EU institutions and integrated into the law of the member state where you do business.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/

    Exactly the problem Turkey is facing with tariff free trade being an entirely one way street as far as EU third party FTAs are concerned.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    An interesting conversation on the radio this mornimg suggested that if anyone tries to drive their car in a red weather zone they will negate their insurance. Bet not many have thought of that
    Not sure I believe that but that doesn't mean it is not an idiotic thing to do, certainly without 4 wheel driver and considerable experience. It scares me when on snow and you still see peoples' brake lights coming on to control the speed of the car. Some of them will be automatics and have limited choice but others you need to stay away from.

    I made a late run to Tescos last night. The roads here were distinctly tricky and there were vehicles stuck all over the place. And we are to the north of the worst affected parts. Its more than 5 years since we had snow like this.
    It does make sense. A red weather zone is an explicit request not to travel and listening to the Police this morning thay are saying do not travel so if you ignore that you could be considered to be acting negligently.

    Of course it only applies to the red weather zones
    I am pretty sure that those people who spent their night stuck on the A80 would see the sense in your argument.
    there are 2 different issues, 1. is it wise to drive in these conditions and 2. would doing so affect one's right to claim on one's insurance, and the answer to both is an emphatic no. There's the danger that people stuck on the A80 hear and believe this sort of misinformation, and freeze to death because they daren't drive home even when the snow plough has been and freed them, and so freeze to death.
    The people on the A80 show another problem. Many people are deluded into believing that they were really some Nordic rally driver in a prior life who can cope in conditions mere mortals can't. And then they get stuck behind a jack knifed lorry.

    LOL that is so true. I, for example, am the best driver on the road by a country mile. Challenging road conditions that occur once a decade? I was born to it! :wink:
    Don't most drivers rate themselves as 'above average'?
    Yup, yet only something like 10% have ever done any advanced driver training such as an IAM course, skid pan, off road, circuit driving etc. 99.99something percent of cars also won’t have snow chains or winter tyres, it’s much better just to stay home.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,723
    AndyJS said:

    The weather's not too bad in the Midlands at the moment. 35 mile drive this morning was surprisingly trouble-free despite it being -3 degrees.

    Lincolnshire is pretty much closed. Large sections of the A52 and A17 are closed and the police have said most minor roads (which in Lincolnshire is pretty much everything) are impassable. We had a lot more snow overnight and now seem to be getting the winds to whip it up.

    A good day to stay inside
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Mr. Sandpit/Miss Vance, it's fascinating how self-perception can be skewed on some things. Lots of people doubt they're attractive, but the majority think it's obvious they're pretty clever.

    Hmm. I wonder if gamblers are more or less objective when it comes to their own performance.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    F1: onto inters now, having started on full wets. Tracking drying out, times getting ever faster.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495


    As you say, there actually isn’t a coherent headbanger plan to leave the EU.

    More importantly, there isn't a coherent Remainer plan to stay in the EU. Their groping around for one does make a WTO exit all the more likely, however.
    This weird tendency to Remain-blame for a bad Brexit is a kind of mental pathology. It’s one of the ways you can tell that Brexitism is more akin to a cult than a coherent political ideology.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    The weather's not too bad in the Midlands at the moment. 35 mile drive this morning was surprisingly trouble-free despite it being -3 degrees.

    Lincolnshire is pretty much closed. Large sections of the A52 and A17 are closed and the police have said most minor roads (which in Lincolnshire is pretty much everything) are impassable. We had a lot more snow overnight and now seem to be getting the winds to whip it up.

    A good day to stay inside
    Sorry, I should have said I'm talking about the area between Birmingham and Nottingham which seems to be having a better day than most other areas.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,213
    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    It does make sense. A red weather zone is an explicit request not to travel and listening to the Police this morning thay are saying do not travel so if you ignore that you could be considered to be acting negligently.

    Of course it only applies to the red weather zones
    I am pretty sure that those people who spent their night stuck on the A80 would see the sense in your argument.
    there are 2 different issues, 1. is it wise to drive in these conditions and 2. would doing so affect one's right to claim on one's insurance, and the answer to both is an emphatic no. There's the danger that people stuck on the A80 hear and believe this sort of misinformation, and freeze to death because they daren't drive home even when the snow plough has been and freed them, and so freeze to death.
    The people on the A80 show another problem. Many people are deluded into believing that they were really some Nordic rally driver in a prior life who can cope in conditions mere mortals can't. And then they get stuck behind a jack knifed lorry.

    I agree I am not aware of any term in an insurance policy that excludes idiotic behaviour and I don't think such a term would be compatible with the Road Traffic Acts.
    So here's a sad story: I am all geared up to go cruisin' in my Defender td5, to prove that I can, and the engine won't start, and I ring the bloke who fixes it. Third identical call of the morning for him, and it's because Land Rover glow plugs are so useless they die after about 6 years, but winters have been so mild it hasn't mattered till now. Short term fix = squirt ether in the air intake. Medium term, google nearest Toyota dealer.
    I used to have a client who had a high range Land Rover defender with all the toys. On days like this he used to whiz up and down the A9 pulling people out of ditches with his winch, pulling people out of snow drifts, giving them tracks to follow and generally helping out. On one view extremely public spirited but he admitted to me that it was the best fun he had all year.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    UK not doing too badly - some European countries have shockingly high levels of non-native born unemployment - in Sweden's case that may lie behind a lot of their troubles:

    https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/968872649651826688

    Very interesting.

    In the UK most people come specifically to work here. In the Scandinavian countries they are much more likely arrive as refugees, so maybe have a very different mind-set - at least initially.
    I think the Scandinavians are very strict about only allowing people with employment permits to work which prevents a lot of new arrivals from working. One of those idealistic policies of theirs which is probably having the opposite effect of the one they'd like.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,428

    Just had a Guardian newsflash to say that the National Grid doesn’t, today, have enough gas to meet demand.
    'It is thought unlikely that the situation will affect supply to households, but if enough extra gas supplies by pipeline or ship are not forthcoming, it could affect industrial users.'

    LOL!

    But everyone can relax as their heating and lights go out as we're helping to "fight" Climate Change. :D
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,055

    Irish nationalists and the Dublin government, with whom many remainers are making common cause, prefer to focus on hazy concepts like the spirit of the accord and loose interpretations of its passages on identity, rather than more concrete provisions on sovereignty.......

    In the constitutional clauses that form the core of the document, the signatories acknowledged that “the present wish of a majority of the people in Northern Ireland, freely exercised and legitimate, is to maintain the Union and, accordingly, that Northern Ireland’s status as part of the United Kingdom reflects and relies upon that wish; and that it would be wrong to make any change in the status of Northern Ireland save with the consent of a majority of its people”.

    The current threat to that principle comes, not from implementing Brexit, but from the idea that Northern Ireland might stay in the Customs Union or the Single Market while the rest of the UK leaves.


    https://capx.co/will-brexit-scupper-the-good-friday-agreement/

    The point is we have a conundrum. On the one side, the EU has its Single Market and Customs Union and where there are land borders with non-EU countries, the non-EU country has either signed up to the SM or has some other arrangements. - even the EFTA countries are in Schengen and the SM.

    The EU obviously would like the land border with Northern Ireland to be resolved with the UK remaining at least in the CU but we can't do that as that would impede our attempts to build competitive trade deals with non-EU countries so we need a bespoke arrangement - the problem is the default bespoke arrangement is the "hard border" such as exists (I believe) between Gibraltar and Spain and between the Spanish enclaves in Africa and Morocco - a border with all the trappings, bureaucracy and delay.

    Some in the UK believe (and with justification) that the trappings of a hard border are unnecessary in a technological age and said technology can replace customs posts just as cameras have replaced toll booths at Dartford Crossing. Perhaps but that argument isn't wholly convincing as yet and in any case it requires all the infrastructure for such a frictionless but monitored border to be in place by late 2020 and we haven't even started.

    Politically, we want a border that facilitates trade and commerce but recognises we have left the EU in its entirety - a border which allows for due diligence in terms of customs and border inspections but without the paraphernalia of an existing "hard" border. In effect, we want a border but we don't want a border.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    It does make sense. A red weather zone is an explicit request not to travel and listening to the Police this morning thay are saying do not travel so if you ignore that you could be considered to be acting negligently.

    Of course it only applies to the red weather zones
    I am pretty sure that those people who spent their night stuck on the A80 would see the sense in your argument.
    there are 2 different issues, 1. is it wise to drive in these conditions and 2. would doing so affect one's right to claim on one's insurance, and the answer to both is an emphatic no. There's the danger that people stuck on the A80 hear and believe this sort of misinformation, and freeze to death because they daren't drive home even when the snow plough has been and freed them, and so freeze to death.
    The people on the A80 show another problem. Many people are deluded into believing that they were really some Nordic rally driver in a prior life who can cope in conditions mere mortals can't. And then they get stuck behind a jack knifed lorry.

    I agree I am not aware of any term in an insurance policy that excludes idiotic behaviour and I don't think such a term would be compatible with the Road Traffic Acts.
    So here's a sad story: I am all geared up to go cruisin' in my Defender td5, to prove that I can, and the engine won't start, and I ring the bloke who fixes it. Third identical call of the morning for him, and it's because Land Rover glow plugs are so useless they die after about 6 years, but winters have been so mild it hasn't mattered till now. Short term fix = squirt ether in the air intake. Medium term, google nearest Toyota dealer.
    I used to have a client who had a high range Land Rover defender with all the toys. On days like this he used to whiz up and down the A9 pulling people out of ditches with his winch, pulling people out of snow drifts, giving them tracks to follow and generally helping out. On one view extremely public spirited but he admitted to me that it was the best fun he had all year.
    Well done that man :+1:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,213

    Dura_Ace said:

    Jonathan said:

    It is a clear co-ordinated attack on Brexit by those who consider themselves superior to the ordinary voter but TM will stand firm as she showed to popular acclaim yesterday
    That was a party political broadcast by the Theresa May fanzine.
    Authorised by Big G, Chairman - Llandudno chapter.
    I like my promotion but if you have followed my recent postings I only support TM to do Brexit, thereafter someone new is required
    Why? The only way you'd want someone new after is if it's going to be a disaster and you need May to take the blame.
    Or to bed in someone who isn't a complete dud at fighting elections....
    Good at sex and elections? Got to be Boris doesn't it?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    GIN1138 said:

    Just had a Guardian newsflash to say that the National Grid doesn’t, today, have enough gas to meet demand.
    'It is thought unlikely that the situation will affect supply to households, but if enough extra gas supplies by pipeline or ship are not forthcoming, it could affect industrial users.'

    LOL!

    But everyone can relax as their heating and lights go out as we're helping to "fight" Climate Change. :D
    The gas supply authorities are incompetent and/or money goes to pay dividends instead of building gas storage facilities.

    Denmark by law must maintain 6 months of onshore gas storage. Although they have their own N. Sea gas fields, those don't count towards the total because a pipe could be damaged.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254


    As you say, there actually isn’t a coherent headbanger plan to leave the EU.

    More importantly, there isn't a coherent Remainer plan to stay in the EU. Their groping around for one does make a WTO exit all the more likely, however.
    This weird tendency to Remain-blame for a bad Brexit is a kind of mental pathology. It’s one of the ways you can tell that Brexitism is more akin to a cult than a coherent political ideology.
    Just an acknowledgment that WTO is the default position if everybody keeps dicking about. I'm just bemused by the weird tendency of those who want to magic up some avoidance of Brexit to ignore where their road map takes them... Is that a mental pathology?

    We Brexiteers don't worship at any cult. We're pretty agnostic about any form of political settlement being able to elevate you to a higher place. Such worship is exhibited by the constant and very public self-flagellation, self-loathing of the Brussels Worshippers on here. "We'e not wothy, we're not worthy...." And their High Priest is Tony Blair, with more blood on his hands than any Aztec Quetzalcoatl after an orgy of human sacrifice.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Mr. Gin, don't worry. Once we shut down Eggborough[sp] power station and other nasty dirty coal-powered stations we can enjoy feeling virtuous. And cold.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Meanwhile, South Africa has seen how well seizure of land worked in Zimbabwe and decided it wants some of that hot, famine-inducing action: https://twitter.com/MartinDaubney/status/969147026607833093
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,847
    Ishmael_Z said:


    So here's a sad story: I am all geared up to go cruisin' in my Defender td5, to prove that I can, and the engine won't start, and I ring the bloke who fixes it. Third identical call of the morning for him, and it's because Land Rover glow plugs are so useless they die after about 6 years, but winters have been so mild it hasn't mattered till now. Short term fix = squirt ether in the air intake. Medium term, google nearest Toyota dealer.

    Block up the exhaust while you try to start it. It makes the cylinders retain some heat which is often enough to give dodgy glowplugs a help. That's what we used to do in Iraq having been issued the utter fucking dross of all 4x4s (Land Rover Defender). As a bonus you'll be able to do it while not being sniped by a hajji.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254

    Meanwhile, South Africa has seen how well seizure of land worked in Zimbabwe and decided it wants some of that hot, famine-inducing action: https://twitter.com/MartinDaubney/status/969147026607833093

    And things were supposed to get better with the departure of Zuma....?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,394
    edited March 2018

    In highly developed economies, you cannot have a customs union without a single market. They are inseparable. You cannot be in the EU custom union and not be part of the single market. If you are outside the EU customs union, your economic activity in a EU member state will be subject to the ever-changing legal regulations laid down by the EU institutions and integrated into the law of the member state where you do business.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/

    Exactly the problem Turkey is facing with tariff free trade being an entirely one way street as far as EU third party FTAs are concerned.
    The UK government "plan" is to have a comprehensive FTA with the EU. Most supporters of the CU want to be in the SM as well. Corbyn isn't on board with that yet, although he hinted he might not rule it out. There are few people proposing a CU on its own.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Jonathan said:

    It is a clear co-ordinated attack on Brexit by those who consider themselves superior to the ordinary voter but TM will stand firm as she showed to popular acclaim yesterday
    That was a party political broadcast by the Theresa May fanzine.
    Authorised by Big G, Chairman - Llandudno chapter.
    I like my promotion but if you have followed my recent postings I only support TM to do Brexit, thereafter someone new is required
    Why? The only way you'd want someone new after is if it's going to be a disaster and you need May to take the blame.
    Or to bed in someone who isn't a complete dud at fighting elections....
    Good at sex and elections? Got to be Boris doesn't it?
    It looks like it.....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495


    As you say, there actually isn’t a coherent headbanger plan to leave the EU.

    More importantly, there isn't a coherent Remainer plan to stay in the EU. Their groping around for one does make a WTO exit all the more likely, however.
    This weird tendency to Remain-blame for a bad Brexit is a kind of mental pathology. It’s one of the ways you can tell that Brexitism is more akin to a cult than a coherent political ideology.
    Just an acknowledgment that WTO is the default position if everybody keeps dicking about. I'm just bemused by the weird tendency of those who want to magic up some avoidance of Brexit to ignore where their road map takes them... Is that a mental pathology?

    We Brexiteers don't worship at any cult. We're pretty agnostic about any form of political settlement being able to elevate you to a higher place. Such worship is exhibited by the constant and very public self-flagellation, self-loathing of the Brussels Worshippers on here. "We'e not wothy, we're not worthy...." And their High Priest is Tony Blair, with more blood on his hands than any Aztec Quetzalcoatl after an orgy of human sacrifice.
    But by “everyone” you meant, and stated, Remainers.

    Which is akin to blaming the Aztecs for the actions of the Spanish conquistadors.

    It’s pure balls. Either mad, or a dissembling attempt to deflect blame.

    Brexit - whether good or ill - is owned by May, Davis, Fox and Johnson. If you don’t like the direction, have the honesty to take it up with them.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,374

    Mr. Gin, don't worry. Once we shut down Eggborough[sp] power station and other nasty dirty coal-powered stations we can enjoy feeling virtuous. And cold.

    Eggborough is closing because it was not successful in bidding for a slice of the next round of capacity market payments. Instead they've gone to dozens of little engine sets dotted around the country. That run on gas. So no possible problem there then.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Mr. Mark, shortly after Mandela died there was a Question Time edition from South Africa. A black guy in the audience called for Zimbabwe-style land seizure, to generally approving noises from the rest of the audience.

    We'll see how much coverage this gets in the media.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,872
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ishmael_Z said:


    So here's a sad story: I am all geared up to go cruisin' in my Defender td5, to prove that I can, and the engine won't start, and I ring the bloke who fixes it. Third identical call of the morning for him, and it's because Land Rover glow plugs are so useless they die after about 6 years, but winters have been so mild it hasn't mattered till now. Short term fix = squirt ether in the air intake. Medium term, google nearest Toyota dealer.

    Block up the exhaust while you try to start it. It makes the cylinders retain some heat which is often enough to give dodgy glowplugs a help. That's what we used to do in Iraq having been issued the utter fucking dross of all 4x4s (Land Rover Defender). As a bonus you'll be able to do it while not being sniped by a hajji.
    Hmm. Wonder how my elder son, a Defender owner, is managing. Younger son is on a business trip to Florida!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340


    As you say, there actually isn’t a coherent headbanger plan to leave the EU.

    More importantly, there isn't a coherent Remainer plan to stay in the EU. Their groping around for one does make a WTO exit all the more likely, however.
    This weird tendency to Remain-blame for a bad Brexit is a kind of mental pathology. It’s one of the ways you can tell that Brexitism is more akin to a cult than a coherent political ideology.
    Just an acknowledgment that WTO is the default position if everybody keeps dicking about. I'm just bemused by the weird tendency of those who want to magic up some avoidance of Brexit to ignore where their road map takes them... Is that a mental pathology?

    We Brexiteers don't worship at any cult. We're pretty agnostic about any form of political settlement being able to elevate you to a higher place. Such worship is exhibited by the constant and very public self-flagellation, self-loathing of the Brussels Worshippers on here. "We'e not wothy, we're not worthy...." And their High Priest is Tony Blair, with more blood on his hands than any Aztec Quetzalcoatl after an orgy of human sacrifice.
    But by “everyone” you meant, and stated, Remainers.

    Which is akin to blaming the Aztecs for the actions of the Spanish conquistadors.

    It’s pure balls. Either mad, or a dissembling attempt to deflect blame.

    Brexit - whether good or ill - is owned by May, Davis, Fox and Johnson. If you don’t like the direction, have the honesty to take it up with them.
    You can tell that Leavers are cultists when a Conservative MP calls a former Conservative Prime Minister a traitor for expressing a view she disagrees with, without any chorus of condemnation from those who share her view.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,872

    Mr. Mark, shortly after Mandela died there was a Question Time edition from South Africa. A black guy in the audience called for Zimbabwe-style land seizure, to generally approving noises from the rest of the audience.

    We'll see how much coverage this gets in the media.

    When your family has had it's land taken from it by someone else, and particularly when they are easily identifiable, it rankles. For quite a long time. See Northern Ireland.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,091
    I wonder what impact the weather will have on today's by-elections? Especially the case in Exmouth which is on the edge of the red zone.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495


    As you say, there actually isn’t a coherent headbanger plan to leave the EU.

    More importantly, there isn't a coherent Remainer plan to stay in the EU. Their groping around for one does make a WTO exit all the more likely, however.
    This weird tendency to Remain-blame for a bad Brexit is a kind of mental pathology. It’s one of the ways you can tell that Brexitism is more akin to a cult than a coherent political ideology.
    Just an acknowledgment that WTO is the default position if everybody keeps dicking about. I'm just bemused by the weird tendency of those who want to magic up some avoidance of Brexit to ignore where their road map takes them... Is that a mental pathology?

    We Brexiteers don't worship at any cult. We're pretty agnostic about any form of political settlement being able to elevate you to a higher place. Such worship is exhibited by the constant and very public self-flagellation, self-loathing of the Brussels Worshippers on here. "We'e not wothy, we're not worthy...." And their High Priest is Tony Blair, with more blood on his hands than any Aztec Quetzalcoatl after an orgy of human sacrifice.
    But by “everyone” you meant, and stated, Remainers.

    Which is akin to blaming the Aztecs for the actions of the Spanish conquistadors.

    It’s pure balls. Either mad, or a dissembling attempt to deflect blame.

    Brexit - whether good or ill - is owned by May, Davis, Fox and Johnson. If you don’t like the direction, have the honesty to take it up with them.
    You can tell that Leavers are cultists when a Conservative MP calls a former Conservative Prime Minister a traitor for expressing a view she disagrees with, without any chorus of condemnation from those who share her view.
    Dr Freud would definitely have something to say about these Oedipal outpourings of bile toward Blair and Major.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510

    Mr. Mark, shortly after Mandela died there was a Question Time edition from South Africa. A black guy in the audience called for Zimbabwe-style land seizure, to generally approving noises from the rest of the audience.

    We'll see how much coverage this gets in the media.

    Probably not much today in the UK media, with snow and Brexit ongoing - as well as F1 testing in Barcelona.

    It’s the sort of story that can lead the News At 10 on a slow day, or generate a lot of questions at PMQs though.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,847



    Hmm. Wonder how my elder son, a Defender owner, is managing.

    Less well than if he had a Toyota I imagine. In Basra we had Defenders that were totalled after less than 2,000 miles with collapsed wheel bearings, the dreaded tailshaft knock and the aforementioned starting problems. I often use to ponder which bit of substandard equipment would get me killed first: LR Defender or Lynx AH7.

    Toward the end when we were all out of fucks to give we started confiscating 20 year old HiLuxes from the locals which were much better. Luckily Phil Shiner never got wind of that operation.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679


    As you say, there actually isn’t a coherent headbanger plan to leave the EU.

    More importantly, there isn't a coherent Remainer plan to stay in the EU. Their groping around for one does make a WTO exit all the more likely, however.
    This weird tendency to Remain-blame for a bad Brexit is a kind of mental pathology. It’s one of the ways you can tell that Brexitism is more akin to a cult than a coherent political ideology.
    What would a remain in the EU plan look like? Day 1 - remain in EU. Day 2 - as day 1. etc.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,723
    FF43 said:

    In highly developed economies, you cannot have a customs union without a single market. They are inseparable. You cannot be in the EU custom union and not be part of the single market. If you are outside the EU customs union, your economic activity in a EU member state will be subject to the ever-changing legal regulations laid down by the EU institutions and integrated into the law of the member state where you do business.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/

    Exactly the problem Turkey is facing with tariff free trade being an entirely one way street as far as EU third party FTAs are concerned.
    The UK government "plan" is to have a comprehensive FTA with the EU. Most supporters of the CU want to be in the SM as well. Corbyn isn't on board with that yet, although he hinted he might not rule it out. There are few people proposing a CU on its own.
    That is exactly what Labour are proposing.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,394
    Scott_P said:

    Barnier is freelancing, overstepped his authority, he doesn't have the backing of...

    https://twitter.com/gdnpolitics/status/969152419836846080

    The interesting titbit from that article is that EU27 hardened their positions when they heard what Johnson was saying about the Irish border. Our Foreign Minister's diplomatic skills to the fore, once again.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    Scott_P said:
    LOL, thanks Max Mosley :+1:

    Penny for the thoughts of Hugh Grant today, reflecting on his association with the fascist - against the media who reported his arrest with a $20 hooker when he had Liz Hurley at home.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories/Leavers still ever so slightly frit when it comes to Blair. Sweet.

    Dream on.

    Blair would be Leave's biggest asset.

    The more you protest ...
    No. I actively encourage him to get back into the fray. Would be hilarious, and almost certainly split the Labour vote. Would be hilarious to see him see how far his star has fallen...
    Does it ever occur to you that people listen to the arguments? There are very few who advocate their position as persuasively and with such erudition as Blair. Certainly not IDS!
    The question was about trust, though. There is no one in or out of public life about whom I would be less certain than I am about Blair that he said only what he believed to be true or that if he said he would in the future do something, he fully intended to do it. People pay attention to where the arguments are coming from.
    These are both right - on the one hand he's a war criminal and being on the same side as him should make you suspect you're wrong, but on the other, he's a genuinely great communicator.

    One of the problems with the Remain campaign was that they didn't really have anyone who could reach out to the waverers; Cameron already looked mildly ridiculous after the "renegotiation", and they ended up getting represented by people like Eddy Izzard who only appealed to the people they appeal to.
    Ironically the government could do with prime Blair leading the Brexit negotiations. If he was , the UK would probably come away with everything and a few nice Mediterranean islands to sweeten the deal.
    It was partly thanks to Blair's failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 that Leave won
    Except the percentage of the population who thinks there is too much immigration stays constant regardless of the amount of immigration.

    In the 1980s 70% of people thought there was too much immigration from the West Indies - at a time when there was negative net migration from there.
  • Oh dear, Tory Leavers making themselves look like idiots over Northern Ireland, I am shocked.


    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/969142151815880704
  • Jeremy Corbyn is such an easy target and I'm astonished just how many Tories repeatedly miss the target.

    They are the political equivalent of the the Spurs legend Ronny Rosenthal.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510

    Oh dear, Tory Leavers making themselves look like idiots over Northern Ireland, I am shocked.

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/969142151815880704

    That got discussed here a year or so ago. Corbyn voted against absolutely everything regarding NI - with the sole exception of one vote on the third reading of the 1998 Bill.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    LOL, thanks Max Mosley :+1:

    Penny for the thoughts of Hugh Grant today, reflecting on his association with the fascist - against the media who reported his arrest with a $20 hooker when he had Liz Hurley at home.
    Oh dear, so more headlines like this then....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/968979124227276807
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254
    Scott_P said:
    Who would want to get involved in that Brexit self-publicity war between Charlie Mullins and Peter Stringfellow? By their friends shall you know the Remainers.....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Mr. Sandpit/Miss Vance, it's fascinating how self-perception can be skewed on some things. Lots of people doubt they're attractive, but the majority think it's obvious they're pretty clever.

    Hmm. I wonder if gamblers are more or less objective when it comes to their own performance.

    Profitable gamblers or all gamblers?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,483
    Jonathan said:

    Just had a Guardian newsflash to say that the National Grid doesn’t, today, have enough gas to meet demand.
    'It is thought unlikely that the situation will affect supply to households, but if enough extra gas supplies by pipeline or ship are not forthcoming, it could affect industrial users.'

    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Coal is nearly maxed out. We need to chuck a couple of lumps of uranium on the fire.
    Thank goodness my own coal bunker is full.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,394
    edited March 2018

    FF43 said:

    In highly developed economies, you cannot have a customs union without a single market. They are inseparable. You cannot be in the EU custom union and not be part of the single market. If you are outside the EU customs union, your economic activity in a EU member state will be subject to the ever-changing legal regulations laid down by the EU institutions and integrated into the law of the member state where you do business.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/

    Exactly the problem Turkey is facing with tariff free trade being an entirely one way street as far as EU third party FTAs are concerned.
    The UK government "plan" is to have a comprehensive FTA with the EU. Most supporters of the CU want to be in the SM as well. Corbyn isn't on board with that yet, although he hinted he might not rule it out. There are few people proposing a CU on its own.
    That is exactly what Labour are proposing.
    No. They are not. Corbyn in his speech wanted a bespoke arrangement that would commit to a large part of EU product regulation. Most of his members and MPs want the full Single Market.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    King Cole, understandable. But that doesn't mean seizing land from white farmers is smart or right.
  • On topic my view (and betting position) has been

    1) Dems take back the House

    2) Republicans hold the Senate, maybe with an increased majority. 2018 is a terrible target year for the Dems, 2020 will be much better.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,055


    Who would want to get involved in that Brexit self-publicity war between Charlie Mullins and Peter Stringfellow? By their friends shall you know the Remainers.....

    So you're now the Witchfinder General for Brexit ? Anyone who even breathes the slightest contradiction has to be hunted down.

    Bizarre.

    Charlie Mullins as LD candidate for London Mayor in 2020 ? There's a thought.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Scott_P said:
    Who would want to get involved in that Brexit self-publicity war between Charlie Mullins and Peter Stringfellow? By their friends shall you know the Remainers.....
    Well that is one way of looking at it. Another is that Brexit is costing the Conservatives support in the business community that might well lead to funding not only being lost but going to the Lib Dems.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Mr. Alistair, both. Maybe being honest with oneself is helpful for gambling.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,374
    slade said:

    I wonder what impact the weather will have on today's by-elections? Especially the case in Exmouth which is on the edge of the red zone.

    Decided on the postal votes.

    Is there a provision to cancel elections when the weather is so bad?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,428
    Scott_P said:
    Nasty Max won't think much to that...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    LOL, thanks Max Mosley :+1:

    Penny for the thoughts of Hugh Grant today, reflecting on his association with the fascist - against the media who reported his arrest with a $20 hooker when he had Liz Hurley at home.
    Oh dear, so more headlines like this then....

    ttps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/968979124227276807
    You just know that Murdoch is going to stop at absolutely nothing to see Mosley done for perjury. The Sun are probably going to run a story on him every day until he sues them again, that’s how much he’s hated.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Scott_P said:
    Good point. When people were saying the Conservatives wouldn't do a future campaign as bad as the last one next time, I'd sort of assumed they meant it would be better.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254
    edited March 2018
    stodge said:


    Who would want to get involved in that Brexit self-publicity war between Charlie Mullins and Peter Stringfellow? By their friends shall you know the Remainers.....

    So you're now the Witchfinder General for Brexit ? Anyone who even breathes the slightest contradiction has to be hunted down.

    Bizarre.

    Charlie Mullins as LD candidate for London Mayor in 2020 ? There's a thought.

    Chill. Having had to take flak for the fellow Brexiteers I am supposed to be in bed with, I'm just enjoying Scott_P and Alastair Meeks cuddling up with Peter Stringfellow and Charlie Mullins. It's like a hilarious malfunction in a dating computer....
  • Scott_P said:
    Hurrah, a sovereign Parliament is taking back control.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,872
    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just had a Guardian newsflash to say that the National Grid doesn’t, today, have enough gas to meet demand.
    'It is thought unlikely that the situation will affect supply to households, but if enough extra gas supplies by pipeline or ship are not forthcoming, it could affect industrial users.'

    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Coal is nearly maxed out. We need to chuck a couple of lumps of uranium on the fire.
    Thank goodness my own coal bunker is full.
    You could make a killing on that!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    On topic my view (and betting position) has been

    1) Dems take back the House

    2) Republicans hold the Senate, maybe with an increased majority. 2018 is a terrible target year for the Dems, 2020 will be much better.

    We need to see what basket of deplorable the the Reps put up for their senate elections. Two years ago I'd have said it was nailed on guaranteed they would make big gains in the senate this year but now I'm not sure.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    edited March 2018

    stodge said:


    Who would want to get involved in that Brexit self-publicity war between Charlie Mullins and Peter Stringfellow? By their friends shall you know the Remainers.....

    So you're now the Witchfinder General for Brexit ? Anyone who even breathes the slightest contradiction has to be hunted down.

    Bizarre.

    Charlie Mullins as LD candidate for London Mayor in 2020 ? There's a thought.

    Chill. Having had to take flak for the fellow Brexiteers I am supposed to be in bed with, I'm just enjoying Scott_P and Alastair Meeks cuddling up with Peter Stringfellow and Charlie Mullins. It's like a hilarious malfunction in a dating computer....
    What have either of those two done/said that excites your opprobrium?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254
    TOPPING said:

    .

    stodge said:


    Who would want to get involved in that Brexit self-publicity war between Charlie Mullins and Peter Stringfellow? By their friends shall you know the Remainers.....

    So you're now the Witchfinder General for Brexit ? Anyone who even breathes the slightest contradiction has to be hunted down.

    Bizarre.

    Charlie Mullins as LD candidate for London Mayor in 2020 ? There's a thought.

    Chill. Having had to take flak for the fellow Brexiteers I am supposed to be in bed with, I'm just enjoying Scott_P and Alastair Meeks cuddling up with Peter Stringfellow and Charlie Mullins. It's like a hilarious malfunction in a dating computer....
    What have either of those two done/said that excites your opprobrium?
    What - Scott_P and Alastair Meeks?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,872
    Dura_Ace said:



    Hmm. Wonder how my elder son, a Defender owner, is managing.

    Less well than if he had a Toyota I imagine. In Basra we had Defenders that were totalled after less than 2,000 miles with collapsed wheel bearings, the dreaded tailshaft knock and the aforementioned starting problems. I often use to ponder which bit of substandard equipment would get me killed first: LR Defender or Lynx AH7.

    Toward the end when we were all out of fucks to give we started confiscating 20 year old HiLuxes from the locals which were much better. Luckily Phil Shiner never got wind of that operation.
    Not surprised at the last para. Quite surprised that MoD had bought such sub-standard kit for "Our Boys".

    Eldest son plus family is supposed to be coming to see us (West Kent to N Essex) on Sunday.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,091

    slade said:

    I wonder what impact the weather will have on today's by-elections? Especially the case in Exmouth which is on the edge of the red zone.

    Decided on the postal votes.

    Is there a provision to cancel elections when the weather is so bad?
    The general opinion is a decision can only be taken by the Returning Officer on the day and only in exceptional circumstances. Whether snow and blizzards count is doubtful.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just had a Guardian newsflash to say that the National Grid doesn’t, today, have enough gas to meet demand.
    'It is thought unlikely that the situation will affect supply to households, but if enough extra gas supplies by pipeline or ship are not forthcoming, it could affect industrial users.'

    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Coal is nearly maxed out. We need to chuck a couple of lumps of uranium on the fire.
    Thank goodness my own coal bunker is full.
    You could make a killing on that!
    Tut bath's full n'all.....
  • Alistair said:

    On topic my view (and betting position) has been

    1) Dems take back the House

    2) Republicans hold the Senate, maybe with an increased majority. 2018 is a terrible target year for the Dems, 2020 will be much better.

    We need to see what basket of deplorable the the Reps put up for their senate elections. Two years ago I'd have said it was nailed on guaranteed they would make big gains in the senate this year but now I'm not sure.
    More Roy Moores?

    Robert Mueller might be someone who impacts those bets.

    I don't think Don will be at his finest if Jared gets indicted before the mid terms.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    edited March 2018
    Mr Cole,

    "Just had a Guardian newsflash to say that the National Grid doesn’t, today, have enough gas to meet demand."

    If only we'd started fracking earlier. Perhaps we should only supply gas to non-greenies as greenies like the hair - shirt approach.

    All after a couple of days of chill. You'll remember 62 - 63 when we had three months of this, but then we didn't have central heating anyway. Just a coal fire with a back boiler. Pah! these modern snowflakes don't know they're born, do they? Days off school? Unheard of then.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108

    TOPPING said:

    .

    stodge said:


    Who would want to get involved in that Brexit self-publicity war between Charlie Mullins and Peter Stringfellow? By their friends shall you know the Remainers.....

    So you're now the Witchfinder General for Brexit ? Anyone who even breathes the slightest contradiction has to be hunted down.

    Bizarre.

    Charlie Mullins as LD candidate for London Mayor in 2020 ? There's a thought.

    Chill. Having had to take flak for the fellow Brexiteers I am supposed to be in bed with, I'm just enjoying Scott_P and Alastair Meeks cuddling up with Peter Stringfellow and Charlie Mullins. It's like a hilarious malfunction in a dating computer....
    What have either of those two done/said that excites your opprobrium?
    What - Scott_P and Alastair Meeks?
    LOL

    the other two!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,489

    Scott_P said:
    Good point. When people were saying the Conservatives wouldn't do a future campaign as bad as the last one next time, I'd sort of assumed they meant it would be better.
    :lol:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108

    Dura_Ace said:



    Hmm. Wonder how my elder son, a Defender owner, is managing.

    Less well than if he had a Toyota I imagine. In Basra we had Defenders that were totalled after less than 2,000 miles with collapsed wheel bearings, the dreaded tailshaft knock and the aforementioned starting problems. I often use to ponder which bit of substandard equipment would get me killed first: LR Defender or Lynx AH7.

    Toward the end when we were all out of fucks to give we started confiscating 20 year old HiLuxes from the locals which were much better. Luckily Phil Shiner never got wind of that operation.
    Not surprised at the last para. Quite surprised that MoD had bought such sub-standard kit for "Our Boys".

    Eldest son plus family is supposed to be coming to see us (West Kent to N Essex) on Sunday.
    It was ever thus - the number of green vehicle moves in no green vehicle move environments in NI was very large.
  • Just remember folks cold weather is God's way of telling us to burn more Catholics.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,872

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just had a Guardian newsflash to say that the National Grid doesn’t, today, have enough gas to meet demand.
    'It is thought unlikely that the situation will affect supply to households, but if enough extra gas supplies by pipeline or ship are not forthcoming, it could affect industrial users.'

    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Coal is nearly maxed out. We need to chuck a couple of lumps of uranium on the fire.
    Thank goodness my own coal bunker is full.
    You could make a killing on that!
    Tut bath's full n'all.....
    Jan 1963 my wife and I went out, after one of us having a bath, for the evening. Came back to find the bath not only still full, but the bathwater frozen solid.
    T'was cold, that January!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,817
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709


    Don't most drivers rate themselves as 'above average'?

    They could be right, everybody could be just above the average except for this one guy who's really, really shit
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108


    Don't most drivers rate themselves as 'above average'?

    They could be right, everybody could be just above the average except for this one guy who's really, really shit
    And he is always hogging the middle lane in front of you.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    stodge said:


    Who would want to get involved in that Brexit self-publicity war between Charlie Mullins and Peter Stringfellow? By their friends shall you know the Remainers.....

    So you're now the Witchfinder General for Brexit ? Anyone who even breathes the slightest contradiction has to be hunted down.

    Bizarre.

    Charlie Mullins as LD candidate for London Mayor in 2020 ? There's a thought.

    To be fair this ploy of claiming that you are complicit in all the actions of everyone voting the same way as you was invented by the local remoanariat. Engineer hoist, etc.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ishmael_Z said:


    So here's a sad story: I am all geared up to go cruisin' in my Defender td5, to prove that I can, and the engine won't start, and I ring the bloke who fixes it. Third identical call of the morning for him, and it's because Land Rover glow plugs are so useless they die after about 6 years, but winters have been so mild it hasn't mattered till now. Short term fix = squirt ether in the air intake. Medium term, google nearest Toyota dealer.

    Block up the exhaust while you try to start it. It makes the cylinders retain some heat which is often enough to give dodgy glowplugs a help. That's what we used to do in Iraq having been issued the utter fucking dross of all 4x4s (Land Rover Defender). As a bonus you'll be able to do it while not being sniped by a hajji.
    Thank you, will give that a go.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,872
    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,

    "Just had a Guardian newsflash to say that the National Grid doesn’t, today, have enough gas to meet demand."

    If only we'd started fracking earlier. Perhaps we should only supply gas to non-greenies as greenies like the hair - shirt approach.

    All after a couple of days of chill. You'll remember 62 - 63 when we had three months of this, but then we didn't have central heating anyway. Just a coal fire with a back boiler. Pah! these modern snowflakes don't know they're born, do they? Days off school? Unheard of then.

    See my post of a few minutes ago. We, married 6 months, lived in a flat near Hollingworth Lake, a canal resevoir about 5 miles NE of Rochdale.
    Our bathroom and toilet were frozen, so I used to drive her to the school ...... which never closed .....where she taught every morning, together with her sponge bag (etc). I was working in Manchester so drove on there, also with sponge bag, razor etc.
    Weeksends we went down to her parents! Lasted about two months!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Alistair said:

    On topic my view (and betting position) has been

    1) Dems take back the House

    2) Republicans hold the Senate, maybe with an increased majority. 2018 is a terrible target year for the Dems, 2020 will be much better.

    We need to see what basket of deplorable the the Reps put up for their senate elections. Two years ago I'd have said it was nailed on guaranteed they would make big gains in the senate this year but now I'm not sure.
    More Roy Moores?

    Robert Mueller might be someone who impacts those bets.

    I don't think Don will be at his finest if Jared gets indicted before the mid terms.
    For the Democrats (*including those Independents-in-name-only) to gain the Senate, they must take Arizona (Rep. Jeff Flake is retiring and there is a big selection battle going on) and Nevada (a blue state).

    They must also hold a number of difficult seats, including deep red West Virginia, North Dakota and Missouri, plus difficult tests in Montana and Indiana. Florida is another target for the Reps if Rick Scott can be persuaded to stand.

    *under BF rules, they do not count and instead the Dems must make four gains, which means unseating Ted Cruz in Texas...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,602

    Just remember folks cold weather is God's way of telling us to burn more Catholics.

    Or Protestants in the case of Mary Tudor
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    It does make sense. A red weather zone is an explicit request not to travel and listening to the Police this morning thay are saying do not travel so if you ignore that you could be considered to be acting negligently.

    Of course it only applies to the red weather zones
    I am pretty sure that those people who spent their night stuck on the A80 would see the sense in your argument.
    there are 2 different issues, 1. is it wise to drive in these conditions and 2. would doing so affect one's right to claim on one's insurance, and the answer to both is an emphatic no. There's the danger that people stuck on the A80 hear and believe this sort of misinformation, and freeze to death because they daren't drive home even when the snow plough has been and freed them, and so freeze to death.
    The people on the A80 show another problem. Many people are deluded into believing that they were really some Nordic rally driver in a prior life who can cope in conditions mere mortals can't. And then they get stuck behind a jack knifed lorry.

    I agree I am not aware of any term in an insurance policy that excludes idiotic behaviour and I don't think such a term would be compatible with the Road Traffic Acts.
    So here's a sad story: I am all geared up to go cruisin' in my Defender td5, to prove that I can, and the engine won't start, and I ring the bloke who fixes it. Third identical call of the morning for him, and it's because Land Rover glow plugs are so useless they die after about 6 years, but winters have been so mild it hasn't mattered till now. Short term fix = squirt ether in the air intake. Medium term, google nearest Toyota dealer.
    I used to have a client who had a high range Land Rover defender with all the toys. On days like this he used to whiz up and down the A9 pulling people out of ditches with his winch, pulling people out of snow drifts, giving them tracks to follow and generally helping out. On one view extremely public spirited but he admitted to me that it was the best fun he had all year.
    I have family who farm up by Inverness. Every single farmer I have met up there has a Toyota Hilux. It's the same in Africa, the only Land Rovers are run by posh safari places, otherwise Toyota all the way. There's a brexit metaphor somewhere in there.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    It so happens that UK withdrawal is not the worst of the EU’s current problems. The relationship between a government and the market in capitalist systems is all-consuming and fundamental. The EU is in that relationship with the overall EU economy. But this means that the relationship tends to reach into higher and higher levels of the public policy which ultimately determines the distribution of the burdens and benefits of a society, perhaps even fiscal policy. In a liberal democratic capitalist system, this means that there must be politics.

    The EU has the substance of traditional liberal democratic institutions, but it does not have the essence of liberal democracy, which rests on the relentless daily struggle of public opinion, causing and justifying law-making and government and administration. Resolving that problem is an urgent priority.


    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/

    I expect thats why they fixed the Selmeyr putsch......
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Just been out in North Essex - only a 4 mile round trip but the road conditions are some of the worst I have ever driven on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,602
    edited March 2018
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories/Leavers still ever so slightly frit when it comes to Blair. Sweet.

    Dream on.

    Blair would be Leave's biggest asset.

    The more you protest ...
    No. I actively encourage him to get back into the fray. Would be hilarious, and almost certainly split the Labour vote. Would be hilarious to see him see how far his star has fallen...
    Does it ever occur to you that people listen to the arguments? There are very few who advocate their position as persuasively and with such erudition as Blair. Certainly not IDS!
    The question was about trust, though. There is no one in or out of public life about whom I would be less certain than I am about Blair that he said only what he believed to be true or that if he said he would in the future do something, he fully intended to do it. People pay attention to where the arguments are coming from.
    These are both right - on the one hand he's a war criminal and being on the same side as him should make you suspect you're wrong, but on the other, he's a genuinely great communicator.

    One of the problems with the Remain campaign was that they didn't really have anyone who could reach out to the waverers; Cameron already looked mildly ridiculous after the "renegotiation", and they ended up getting represented by people like Eddy Izzard who only appealed to the people they appeal to.
    Ironically the government could do with prime Blair leading the Brexit negotiations. If he was , the UK would probably come away with everything and a few nice Mediterranean islands to sweeten the deal.
    It was partly thanks to Blair's failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 that Leave won
    Except the percentage of the population who thinks there is too much immigration stays constant regardless of the amount of immigration.

    In the 1980s 70% of people thought there was too much immigration from the West Indies - at a time when there was negative net migration from there.
    UKIP jumped in support at the 2004 European elections after the lack of transition controls from 2 MEPs to 12 MEPs and that began the process of their rise culminating in getting 12% at the 2015 general election and Cameron's promise of an EU referendum and the subsequent Leave vote
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,847



    Not surprised at the last para. Quite surprised that MoD had bought such sub-standard kit for "Our Boys".

    Sub-standard kit is very much the norm in the British forces and the situation usually goes from bad to worse in times of war. I remember we had a batch of Pakistani sourced 9mm ammo that, when fired from a Walther PP 'kurz', would struggle to penetrate the cardboard target at 15m.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,489
    Allistair Heath:

    "If MPs decide to back a customs union that prevents us from pursuing our own trade policy in goods, services and agriculture, a central point of leaving the EU, then it’s game over. Everything else will unravel."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/28/do-hard-remainers-not-see-stopping-brexit-would-do-democracy/
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