politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The uncertainty over Brexit and TMay are set to make this year
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The uncertainty over Brexit and TMay are set to make this year’s locals more significant than usual
We are little over two months away from this year’s local elections which because of the febrile political situation could have wider consequences than just who runs the local council.
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First! Like Mrs May, Leave and No!0
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What’s perceived as a poor set of results could be the trigger for a leadership move against TMay. a General Election and a Corbyn ministry ......which may give some pause for thought......0
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I feel it will require a bigger change than some council election losses. I get the impression the original idea was after the Brexit deal (even if that deal is a holding position for a future transition) if May can't get a Brexit deal through then I wonder if any Conservative leader could and if not then what difference does replacing her really make.
I suppose it could be the ultimate act of rebellion if you feel the direction is completely wrong and have to make a stand (or for negative reasons for anyone who doesn't like the person)0 -
Good Morning impending frozen PBers nationwide ....
The BBC "Sunday Politics" had a piece on the London elections, based on the recent YouGov poll, indicating that the Conservatives might retain just 1 or 2 councils in London, even the prospect of losing Westminster.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09rzbnk/sunday-politics-25022018
From around 29:30.0 -
A feast - nay, a banquet, of Matt:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/93-cartoons-celebrating-30-years-telegraphs-matt/0 -
The collapse of UKIP may leave enough seats won for there to be meat for the Tories, outside of London the Lib Dem and Labour performance may be under a lot of scrutiny and I havent a clue how that will pan out, I suspect anything can be explained away by special factors although the Lib Dems need something to cheer, even the prospect of a byelection in the wind may be enough to raise their game but otherwise it looks their lean spell will continue0
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In Leeds the entire council is up for election due to boundary changes. We might lose some seats as a result of split ticket voting - e.g. 2 Labour + 1 Green.0
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But with the media almost all based in London it's the London results that will get the most coverage. Thatcher suffered some pretty poor results in the 1980s but good results in outer London meant that the headlines didn't reflect this. As there is no reason to expect the Tories to do anything other than disastrously in London at this moment that's unfortunate for them.swing_voter said:The collapse of UKIP may leave enough seats won for there to be meat for the Tories, outside of London the Lib Dem and Labour performance may be under a lot of scrutiny and I havent a clue how that will pan out, I suspect anything can be explained away by special factors although the Lib Dems need something to cheer, even the prospect of a byelection in the wind may be enough to raise their game but otherwise it looks their lean spell will continue
That said I don't think local election results would be the trigger for a move against May in May (sorry for the grammar). They might however make an autumn putsch more likely when the EU talks have reached agreement/collapsed entirely due to Davis' incompetence and Barnier's intransigence.0 -
One of favourite bits of Christmas every year is my Matt book of cartoons. There always seem to have been plenty that I have missed.CarlottaVance said:A feast - nay, a banquet, of Matt:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/93-cartoons-celebrating-30-years-telegraphs-matt/0 -
When I was a child the Giles Christmas annual was something to look forward to......I think Matt's the only current cartoonist remotely in the same league.....many of today's cartoonists simply aren't funny....DavidL said:
One of favourite bits of Christmas every year is my Matt book of cartoons. There always seem to have been plenty that I have missed.CarlottaVance said:A feast - nay, a banquet, of Matt:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/93-cartoons-celebrating-30-years-telegraphs-matt/0 -
They did well in that "super Thursday" recently when there was a series of bye elections around the country but they were still bye elections. May is a much bigger test with their resources much more thinly committed. Their cumulative losses in LG since the Coalition are immense. They will want to show some signs of recovery, most obviously in the leafier parts of London.swing_voter said:The collapse of UKIP may leave enough seats won for there to be meat for the Tories, outside of London the Lib Dem and Labour performance may be under a lot of scrutiny and I havent a clue how that will pan out, I suspect anything can be explained away by special factors although the Lib Dems need something to cheer, even the prospect of a byelection in the wind may be enough to raise their game but otherwise it looks their lean spell will continue
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Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...0
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My wife was a fan of the Gambols for many years and used to get their annual. They weren't as concise as Matt but did try to make something of current events. So many others are just frankly stupid and boorish. I wish they didn't bother.CarlottaVance said:
When I was a child the Giles Christmas annual was something to look forward to......I think Matt's the only current cartoonist remotely in the same league.....many of today's cartoonists simply aren't funny....DavidL said:
One of favourite bits of Christmas every year is my Matt book of cartoons. There always seem to have been plenty that I have missed.CarlottaVance said:A feast - nay, a banquet, of Matt:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/93-cartoons-celebrating-30-years-telegraphs-matt/0 -
This'll confuse Twitter:
UNIVERSITY chiefs were yesterday told by Ministers to hand the wages of striking lecturers to STUDENTS.
Education Minister Sam Gyimah waded into the bitter industrial action to say youngsters should be compensated for the disruption caused to their courses
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5670190/education-minister-tells-universities-to-give-striking-lecturers-pay-back-to-students/0 -
We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.SandyRentool said:Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...
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They do OK-ish at locals (although that "super Thursday" flattered a little by winning two seats where the previous Tory councillor was jailed for bludgeoning his wife with a mallet). But general elections are still bye-bye elections for the LibDems.....DavidL said:
They did well in that "super Thursday" recently when there was a series of bye elections around the country but they were still bye elections. May is a much bigger test with their resources much more thinly committed. Their cumulative losses in LG since the Coalition are immense. They will want to show some signs of recovery, most obviously in the leafier parts of London.swing_voter said:The collapse of UKIP may leave enough seats won for there to be meat for the Tories, outside of London the Lib Dem and Labour performance may be under a lot of scrutiny and I havent a clue how that will pan out, I suspect anything can be explained away by special factors although the Lib Dems need something to cheer, even the prospect of a byelection in the wind may be enough to raise their game but otherwise it looks their lean spell will continue
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Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.DavidL said:
We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.SandyRentool said:Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...
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We had a light flurry - nothing serious. Tomorrow is when I'm expecting fun.DavidL said:
We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.SandyRentool said:Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...
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Matt is an absolute genius. No other cartoonist comes close to raising a smile every day.DavidL said:
One of favourite bits of Christmas every year is my Matt book of cartoons. There always seem to have been plenty that I have missed.CarlottaVance said:A feast - nay, a banquet, of Matt:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/93-cartoons-celebrating-30-years-telegraphs-matt/
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/9674488538416701460 -
I think overall those who are in Government expect to lose LG seats. Last year was something of an exception and undoubtedly led to some of the delusions of the GE campaign. Most parties go through a hollowing out process which ultimately facilitates their loss of power at Westminster as their base is weakened. It happened to the Tories pre 97 and Labour after it.
At the moment the Tories have an immensely strong base in LG. I think that they will be quite sanguine about the loss of 100 seats or so, particularly in Councils where they already have little say. The recoveries from UKIP should reduce the net damage to acceptable proportions.0 -
Looks like Thursday will be the big dump on the south-west.0
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Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no dnager of them being affected.OldKingCole said:
Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.DavidL said:
We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.SandyRentool said:Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...
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Brilliant.Sandpit said:
Matt is an absolute genius. No other cartoonist comes close to raising a smile every day.DavidL said:
One of favourite bits of Christmas every year is my Matt book of cartoons. There always seem to have been plenty that I have missed.CarlottaVance said:A feast - nay, a banquet, of Matt:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/93-cartoons-celebrating-30-years-telegraphs-matt/
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/9674488538416701460 -
Is that weather or Brexit concessions on agriculture?MarqueeMark said:Looks like Thursday will be the big dump on the south-west.
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Well there's no snow in Dubai today.
We did have some rain yesterday though, which has the same effect of making everyone forget how to drive!0 -
The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.
For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?0 -
Snowing a bit more substantialy now. As forecast by Accuweather.OldKingCole said:
Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.DavidL said:
We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.SandyRentool said:Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...
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No snow here in my part of Sussex and the ground isn't frosty either...ydoethur said:
We had a light flurry - nothing serious. Tomorrow is when I'm expecting fun.DavidL said:
We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.SandyRentool said:Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...
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Tory straw-clutching.MarqueeMark said:The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.
For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?0 -
Which does make me idly wonder - if you spent quite a lot of time, however many geraniums do you have? And just how big is your sun room?ydoethur said:
Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no danger of them being affected.OldKingCole said:
Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.DavidL said:
We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.SandyRentool said:Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...
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So Corbyn is a remainer now ?
Jezza and Tony Blair arm in arm fighting the good fight to ignore the referendum.
How unsurprising.0 -
http://www.edenproject.com/sites/default/files/biomes_0.jpgMarqueeMark said:
Which does make me idly wonder - if you spent quite a lot of time, however many geraniums do you have? And just how big is your sun room?ydoethur said:
Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no danger of them being affected.OldKingCole said:
Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.DavidL said:
We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.SandyRentool said:Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...
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We'll see. Don't be surprised if the papers run with "Corbyn bins Brexit" or "Corbyn caves to Brussels" though.OldKingCole said:
Tory straw-clutching.MarqueeMark said:The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.
For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?0 -
The problem is that substitute 'Tory' for 'Labour' and to most voters that critique would look equally valid. The big problem through this whole process has been that not one person has a realistic position and a clear idea how to get there.MarqueeMark said:The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.
For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?
To call Barnier's mindless posturing a dishonest fantasy would be to dignify it. He seems to genuinely believe that he can impose any conditions he likes and there will be no consequences or potential downsides for the EU, or better yet that we will simply give up and remain (at least, that's the only logical explanation for his lies and smear tactics although as he is an associate of Juncker we should also perhaps consider the possibility he is drunk all the time). May has set out several position papers some of which are mutually incompatible (for example, no borders and restrictions on immigration) most of which she has subsequently ignored depending on which group of Tory rebels is shouting the loudest. And Corbyn - well, let's face it, he hasn't come to a decision because he's a straightforward populist and in this situation there is no popular option for him and he hasn't the brainpower to work out on for himself. As a result, most of the actual work is done by Starmer, a rather creepy and oily lawyer chiefly memorable for his mighty mess-ups as DPP.
If this was about a snooker club it would be funny. As the consequences could be a nasty trade war which would damage the entire continent it is not.
I never, ever thought I would be nostalgic for Brown. But right now I am.0 -
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/967890627248652288MarqueeMark said:
We'll see. Don't be surprised if the papers run with "Corbyn bins Brexit" or "Corbyn caves to Brussels" though.OldKingCole said:
Tory straw-clutching.MarqueeMark said:The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.
For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?0 -
Only five pots, but they're very large so it isn't easy to move them, and it also took time to find the rubber mats I was putting them on. (The answer to your second question is, too big, because the previous owner was a bit odd that way.)MarqueeMark said:
Which does make me idly wonder - if you spent quite a lot of time, however many geraniums do you have? And just how big is your sun room?ydoethur said:
Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no danger of them being affected.OldKingCole said:
Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.DavidL said:
We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.SandyRentool said:Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...
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As someone who doesn't want to be ruled from Brussels/Berlin, I was comfortable voting Labour last June in the belief that the party supported Brexit. l now appear to have be misled by Corbyn's U-turn, although I suspect he is being pushed rather than leading on this issue.MarqueeMark said:The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.
For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?0 -
There was an interesting snippet somewhere yesterday which said that every time the Heil attacks Corbyn like this, membership of Momentum, spikes. People here, too, have commented that hysterical attacks like this seem counter-productive.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/967890627248652288MarqueeMark said:
We'll see. Don't be surprised if the papers run with "Corbyn bins Brexit" or "Corbyn caves to Brussels" though.OldKingCole said:
Tory straw-clutching.MarqueeMark said:The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.
For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?0 -
Jezza, Tony Blair, and most of the Cabinet if wanting a tariff-free deal with the EU is what defines a Remainer.TGOHF said:So Corbyn is a remainer now ?
Jezza and Tony Blair arm in arm fighting the good fight to ignore the referendum.
How unsurprising.0 -
I misread that for a moment, and I was wondering how bad things are if even Jesus has to be invoked to support Labour's position!DecrepitJohnL said:
Jezza, Tony Blair, and most of the Cabinet if wanting a tariff-free deal with the EU is what defines a Remainer.TGOHF said:So Corbyn is a remainer now ?
Jezza and Tony Blair arm in arm fighting the good fight to ignore the referendum.
How unsurprising.
As it turns out it was not the Messiah...
Work beckons alas. Have a good day everyone.0 -
No snow in Leeds, however I have managed a downpour of coffee on my keyboard. If my posts make even less sense than normal, I've got an excuse!
On topic, while not many Labourites might know the intricate details of "the" and "a" Customs Union, we all know about giving the Tories a bloody nose by inflicting a government defeat on their Brexit policy.0 -
Odd to see Tories and the Daily Mail demand Corbyn implement his 2017 manifesto. Their attacks are increasingly random.0
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3. Bugger it, we might as well stay in the EU, since this would be BINO.Scott_P said:0 -
I've asked her if she will respect the four freedoms.SandyRentool said:
3. Bugger it, we might as well stay in the EU, since this would be BINO.Scott_P said:0 -
Clear the diary. Order the popcorn. The prime minister is scheduled to give another big Brexit speech this week, when the definitive strategy will finally be revealed. From reports of the recent Chequers meeting, we can guess the gist: “Let me be clear that Britain is clear about what we want. Leave means leave, which means compliance and divergence; divergent compliance. We will have a red, white and blue Brexit, but one that is also not incompatible with yellow and blue. The EU might be the masters of our ship for a transitional period, but ultimately we will be the captains of our soul.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/may-s-carnival-of-indecision-over-brexit-has-cost-us-dear-g3qjq8bh60 -
At present, I'd expect the local elections to be reasonable for the Tories, given that most seats were last contested in 2014. Next year, I expect they'll lose a load of seats.0
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Whatever. People who believe the papers (not the same as people who buy them - I know Labour people who read the Mail for the feature stuff) are not going to vote Labour anyway, 'cos it seems we're traitors and spies. BBC coverage will be important, and I expect that'll be the usual "He said X but...".MarqueeMark said:
We'll see. Don't be surprised if the papers run with "Corbyn bins Brexit" or "Corbyn caves to Brussels" though.0 -
Nice cold week for Mays energy cap.https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/feb/26/households-could-save-100-a-year-as-energy-price-cap-moves-closer0
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I'd say 6 or 7 London councils is the most likely result.JackW said:Good Morning impending frozen PBers nationwide ....
The BBC "Sunday Politics" had a piece on the London elections, based on the recent YouGov poll, indicating that the Conservatives might retain just 1 or 2 councils in London, even the prospect of losing Westminster.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09rzbnk/sunday-politics-25022018
From around 29:30.0 -
Hopefully not like its distant predecessor:DavidL said:
http://www.edenproject.com/sites/default/files/biomes_0.jpgMarqueeMark said:
Which does make me idly wonder - if you spent quite a lot of time, however many geraniums do you have? And just how big is your sun room?ydoethur said:
Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no danger of them being affected.OldKingCole said:
Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.DavidL said:
We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.SandyRentool said:Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthaeum,_Hove0 -
It'll be interesting to see JC's speech this today,...judging how May's much trailled Florence speech ended up not saying very much at all, I am not holding my breath and I wonder quite whether it will end up being that ground-breaking.
Does it put May's speech in a few days even more under pressure? (and we know how well she responds to that)........0 -
Good morning, everyone.
F1: Force India and Toro Rosso unveiled:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43195086
And testing's livefeed is here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/431904000 -
I see that the coal-fired power stations are running essentially flat out as a result of a spike in natural gas prices. Nice to see that money trumps CO2 emissions. If the carbon floor price and/or EU ETS price was set higher, this wouldn't happen.Yorkcity said:Nice cold week for Mays energy cap.https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/feb/26/households-could-save-100-a-year-as-energy-price-cap-moves-closer
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Barry Gardiner telling us little with lots of word about Labour's pie in the sky positioning on Brexit.0
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I confidently predict May's speech will be meaningless gibberish. I'm praying I'm wrong.swing_voter said:It'll be interesting to see JC's speech this today,...judging how May's much trailled Florence speech ended up not saying very much at all, I am not holding my breath and I wonder quite whether it will end up being that ground-breaking.
Does it put May's speech in a few days even more under pressure? (and we know how well she responds to that)........0 -
Pie in the sky from one side, have cake and eat it from the other.Mortimer said:Barry Gardiner telling us little with lots of word about Labour's pie in the sky positioning on Brexit.
Are we in danger of eating ourselves out of house and home?0 -
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Plenty on the Lincolnshire Edge this morning. Bloody cold as well.ydoethur said:
Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no dnager of them being affected.OldKingCole said:
Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.DavidL said:
We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.SandyRentool said:Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...
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Remainers might want to reflect that if Tory and Labour leaderships reject something, it might be because the people reject it?Scott_P said:
Or they could go wah, wah, wah some more0 -
The bigger issue that WILL resonate is "what is this going to cost, Jeremy? How much would you pay to keep this CU?" Be the same old same old, Labour throwing other people's money at a problem.NickPalmer said:
Whatever. People who believe the papers (not the same as people who buy them - I know Labour people who read the Mail for the feature stuff) are not going to vote Labour anyway, 'cos it seems we're traitors and spies. BBC coverage will be important, and I expect that'll be the usual "He said X but...".MarqueeMark said:
We'll see. Don't be surprised if the papers run with "Corbyn bins Brexit" or "Corbyn caves to Brussels" though.0 -
A commitment to EFTA/EEA for 10+ years would be a better interim position. I really don't understand the rush for the exits. Still, I get no more votes, so it's out with the dogs under incredibly leaden Somerset skies.OldKingCole said:
Pie in the sky from one side, have cake and eat it from the other.Mortimer said:Barry Gardiner telling us little with lots of word about Labour's pie in the sky positioning on Brexit.
Are we in danger of eating ourselves out of house and home?0 -
Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and Dorset to enjoy the pleasures of a Mark Oaten speaking tour??MarqueeMark said:Looks like Thursday will be the big dump on the south-west.
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Remember though that Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% as the chart shows and UKIP got 17% much of which will now go to Tory candidates.
It may well be that with the national polls almost tied because Corbyn is starting from a much higher base than the general election, as he was in the 2017 local elections, the Tories may do a bit better than expected and Labour a bit worse0 -
Mr. P, mildly amused at someone promoting the single market (but not in services, of course) with the term 'one of the greatest international solidarity projects in history'.0
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Oh, I thought that was a reference to the Warsaw Pact!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, mildly amused at someone promoting the single market (but not in services, of course) with the term 'one of the greatest international solidarity projects in history'.
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@faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes
shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?0 -
The Tories will almost certainly retain Bromley, Bexley and Hillingdon and gain Havering and have an outside chance of taking Sutton. Other than Barnet with its big Jewish vote, Labour need at least around 10 net gains to gain Wandsworth, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea. The LDs may find it easier to take Kingston Upon Thames and Richmond Park.JackW said:Good Morning impending frozen PBers nationwide ....
The BBC "Sunday Politics" had a piece on the London elections, based on the recent YouGov poll, indicating that the Conservatives might retain just 1 or 2 councils in London, even the prospect of losing Westminster.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09rzbnk/sunday-politics-25022018
From around 29:30.0 -
Is it stupidity or mendacity that keeps them using the term 'access'?Scott_P said:@faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes
shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?
Anyone can sell to European markets. That's not access to the Single Market, it's application of the CET. If you want SM membership, it's the four freedoms - an EU red line that they've reiterated a hojillion times.0 -
The Lincolnshire Edge sounds slightly more remote than the Shoulder of Orion.Richard_Tyndall said:
Plenty on the Lincolnshire Edge this morning. Bloody cold as well.ydoethur said:
Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no dnager of them being affected.OldKingCole said:
Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.DavidL said:
We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.SandyRentool said:Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...
And colder.0 -
Frank Field for labour leader,a very principled man and politician.0
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Single market “membership” with no “Freedom of Movement” would be the mother of all cherries.....which is why the British government didn’t waste any time arguing for it.....but Labour will?John_M said:
Is it stupidity or mendacity that keeps them using the term 'access'?Scott_P said:@faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes
shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?
Anyone can sell to European markets. That's not access to the Single Market, it's application of the CET. If you want SM membership, it's the four freedoms - an EU red line that they've reiterated a hojillion times.0 -
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Labour are starting to look very silly, before Jeremy has even said a word.CarlottaVance said:
Single market “membership” with no “Freedom of Movement” would be the mother of all cherries.....which is why the British government didn’t waste any time arguing for it.....but Labour will?John_M said:
Is it stupidity or mendacity that keeps them using the term 'access'?Scott_P said:@faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes
shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?
Anyone can sell to European markets. That's not access to the Single Market, it's application of the CET. If you want SM membership, it's the four freedoms - an EU red line that they've reiterated a hojillion times.
Why has the man who has not changed his mind on anything since the 1970s suddenly changed his mind? Bangs goes "stable". His USP has gone. And why now - when STFU about Brexit seemed to be working so well for them?0 -
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He has more chance of being Tory leader at the momentTykejohnno said:Frank Field for labour leader,a very principled man and politician.
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Because Labour's research reckons that Labour Leavers are soft Leavers whose party loyalty trumps European issues, and the DNVers who turned out for EUref won't bother in a GE.MarqueeMark said:
Labour are starting to look very silly, before Jeremy has even said a word.CarlottaVance said:
Single market “membership” with no “Freedom of Movement” would be the mother of all cherries.....which is why the British government didn’t waste any time arguing for it.....but Labour will?John_M said:
Is it stupidity or mendacity that keeps them using the term 'access'?Scott_P said:@faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes
shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?
Anyone can sell to European markets. That's not access to the Single Market, it's application of the CET. If you want SM membership, it's the four freedoms - an EU red line that they've reiterated a hojillion times.
Why has the man who has not changed his mind on anything since the 1970s suddenly changed his mind? Bangs goes "stable". His USP has gone. And why now - when STFU about Brexit seemed to be working so well for them?
He's looking to bring down May's administration. In fairness, it would be a mercy killing.
Politically it's quite clever, and I think it's worth the gamble. Muggles won't be paying attention anyway.0 -
Out of interest, why do you think the LDs could lose Sutton?HYUFD said:
The Tories will almost certainly retain Bromley, Bexley and Hillingdon and gain Havering and have an outside chance of taking Sutton. Other than Barnet with its big Jewish vote, Labour need at least around 10 net gains to gain Wandsworth, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea. The LDs may find it easier to take Kingston Upon Thames and Richmond Park.JackW said:Good Morning impending frozen PBers nationwide ....
The BBC "Sunday Politics" had a piece on the London elections, based on the recent YouGov poll, indicating that the Conservatives might retain just 1 or 2 councils in London, even the prospect of losing Westminster.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09rzbnk/sunday-politics-25022018
From around 29:30.
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The Tories are poised to lose a Commons vote on their Brexit policy, and it is Labour who are looking silly?MarqueeMark said:
Labour are starting to look very silly, before Jeremy has even said a word.CarlottaVance said:
Single market “membership” with no “Freedom of Movement” would be the mother of all cherries.....which is why the British government didn’t waste any time arguing for it.....but Labour will?John_M said:
Is it stupidity or mendacity that keeps them using the term 'access'?Scott_P said:@faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes
shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?
Anyone can sell to European markets. That's not access to the Single Market, it's application of the CET. If you want SM membership, it's the four freedoms - an EU red line that they've reiterated a hojillion times.
Why has the man who has not changed his mind on anything since the 1970s suddenly changed his mind? Bangs goes "stable". His USP has gone. And why now - when STFU about Brexit seemed to be working so well for them?0 -
F1: first red flag is caused by McLaren. It turns out Formula 1 cars work best with four wheels attached.0
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Snow flurries starting on the Yorkshire Dales-Forest of Bowland borders... Scafell and the Southern Lakeland hills looking resplendently wintery in the distance...0
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The Tories hold the parliamentary seatEl_Capitano said:
Out of interest, why do you think the LDs could lose Sutton?HYUFD said:
The Tories will almost certainly retain Bromley, Bexley and Hillingdon and gain Havering and have an outside chance of taking Sutton. Other than Barnet with its big Jewish vote, Labour need at least around 10 net gains to gain Wandsworth, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea. The LDs may find it easier to take Kingston Upon Thames and Richmond Park.JackW said:Good Morning impending frozen PBers nationwide ....
The BBC "Sunday Politics" had a piece on the London elections, based on the recent YouGov poll, indicating that the Conservatives might retain just 1 or 2 councils in London, even the prospect of losing Westminster.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09rzbnk/sunday-politics-25022018
From around 29:30.0 -
Just turn left at the Tannhauser Gate and then straight on 'til morning.MarqueeMark said:
The Lincolnshire Edge sounds slightly more remote than the Shoulder of Orion.Richard_Tyndall said:
Plenty on the Lincolnshire Edge this morning. Bloody cold as well.ydoethur said:
Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no dnager of them being affected.OldKingCole said:
Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.DavidL said:
We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.SandyRentool said:Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...
And colder.
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The Tories have a Brexit policy?SandyRentool said:
The Tories are poised to lose a Commons vote on their Brexit policy, and it is Labour who are looking silly?MarqueeMark said:
Labour are starting to look very silly, before Jeremy has even said a word.CarlottaVance said:
Single market “membership” with no “Freedom of Movement” would be the mother of all cherries.....which is why the British government didn’t waste any time arguing for it.....but Labour will?John_M said:
Is it stupidity or mendacity that keeps them using the term 'access'?Scott_P said:@faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes
shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?
Anyone can sell to European markets. That's not access to the Single Market, it's application of the CET. If you want SM membership, it's the four freedoms - an EU red line that they've reiterated a hojillion times.
Why has the man who has not changed his mind on anything since the 1970s suddenly changed his mind? Bangs goes "stable". His USP has gone. And why now - when STFU about Brexit seemed to be working so well for them?-1 -
Thanks for that.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
F1: Force India and Toro Rosso unveiled:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43195086
And testing's livefeed is here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43190400
And it appears the new McLaren has just three wheels. It seems a novel approach to racing car design: take the old Tyrell six-wheeler and half the number of wheels to reduce friction. I'm unsure it'll be very fast, though...
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< MurrayWalker >Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
F1: Force India and Toro Rosso unveiled:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43195086
And testing's livefeed is here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43190400
F1 2018 is GO GO GO!!!!
< / MurrayWalker >
*Unless your name’s Alonso, in which case you’re sitting beached in a gravel trap with three wheels on your wagon.0 -
I know,just had to get the word 'Principled' in for a labour politician.HYUFD said:
He has more chance of being Tory leader at the momentTykejohnno said:Frank Field for labour leader,a very principled man and politician.
The labour movement must stop the labour London mafia running a once great party.0 -
Labour are in very dangerous territory here.
As a Labour leaver we have to have Brexit and it has to give us power to make our own decisions.
Much as I admire Jezza there are definitely lines like 2nd referendums or membership of the single market I would not be prepared to cross and still vote Labour0 -
GotchaJosiasJessop said:
My position is consistent, and yours is ... well, stupid.Ishmael_Z said:
Well, review your own posting history, then. You were giving it very large about how this was the worst thing to happen in the history of ever, and how saying that the women involved were mostly fine with it was "victim blaming", and you are still appending it to a list which has Jimmy Savile in it. So the fact that GOSH aren't fussed enough to reject the donation makes your position look a bit weak.JosiasJessop said:
No, just greatly bemused by your unwarranted tirade.Ishmael_Z said:Ah, the feigned incomprehension defence.
Unless there are two of you posting under the same name, in which case apologies.
I never said: "this was the worst thing to happen in the history of ever,". I suggest you review my posting history, as you're making stuff up. I did say that someone claiming that all the non-journalist women were 'escorts' was victim-blaming, as there was no evidence of that, and even if it was true, which it almost certainly was not, it did not make what happened right.
There are many points I could make about this, but I doubt you'd even give them proper consideration as you seem rather stuck in a rut with your attitudes. But I'll try with one:
snip
Well, the Weinstein story has apparently caused a little shift in opinion. Suddenly, it's not alright. This is bad for us men, for instance minor transgressors (such as Green) will get swept up with the real sinners. But perhaps that is what 'we' deserve for so much bad behaviour over the years.
There is one further point to make: the Presidents' Club story appears to have had a direct connection with the Oxfam story coming out, and it looks as though charities working with vulnerable people may start sorting their acts out instead of sweeping things under the carpet. This is a good thing.
Here's a TL;DR, just to make it clear to you:
It's about how we value others, particularly those who have less authority and power than us.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/5918/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-at-100-1-or-longer-osborne-dmiliband-tblair-for-next-ld-lea/p2
Your accusation of "victim blaming" is in response to my post which says not a word about hostesses. If you are going to call me stupid, that's fine because I know I am not, whereas lying about your own posting history when you know it is searchable is not Mensa level behaviour.
Mind you searching the site is so bloody laborious that I'm not doing it again, so feel free to witter on about isolated instance, taken out of context, yada yada. And GOSH have cut you off at the knees, rather than inflicting a mere flesh wound.0 -
Labour remainers >>> Labour leaversbigjohnowls said:Labour are in very dangerous territory here.
As a Labour leaver we have to have Brexit and it has to give us power to make our own decisions.
Much as I admire Jezza there are definitely lines like 2nd referendums or membership of the single market I would not be prepared to cross and still vote Labour
It's simple maths.0 -
Quick, let’s liquidate the company before the lawsuits come in...MarqueeMark said:0 -
As a fellow Labour Leaver, I'm less fussed. I recognise that I am in a minority position in the party, so if my fellow Labourites wished to campaaign for the softest of soft Brexits I would just suck it up. Brexit is not a defining issue for me - being a Socialist is.bigjohnowls said:Labour are in very dangerous territory here.
As a Labour leaver we have to have Brexit and it has to give us power to make our own decisions.
Much as I admire Jezza there are definitely lines like 2nd referendums or membership of the single market I would not be prepared to cross and still vote Labour0 -
We ain't going to remain though. And as far as I can see Labour Remainers havent jumped ship with the current stance.Jonathan said:
Labour remainers >>> Labour leaversbigjohnowls said:Labour are in very dangerous territory here.
As a Labour leaver we have to have Brexit and it has to give us power to make our own decisions.
Much as I admire Jezza there are definitely lines like 2nd referendums or membership of the single market I would not be prepared to cross and still vote Labour
It's simple maths.0 -
They could try designing some vehicles with only 2 wheels. A bit like bikes, but with engines. They would be much narrower, and there would be better opportunities for overtaking. You would think that someone might have thought of this before...JosiasJessop said:
Thanks for that.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
F1: Force India and Toro Rosso unveiled:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43195086
And testing's livefeed is here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43190400
And it appears the new McLaren has just three wheels. It seems a novel approach to racing car design: take the old Tyrell six-wheeler and half the number of wheels to reduce friction. I'm unsure it'll be very fast, though...0 -
0
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No wonder Corbyn’s an Arsenal.
This is the sort of behaviour i expect from cretinous West Ham and Chelsea fans.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/967792953371570176
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/9678328231965122560 -
So much depends on whether Labour can mobilise its 2017 GE vote as effectively for a set of local contests. The reported swing of 13.5% should worry Inner London Conservatives as that will cause problems but the swing in the Outer London area of 4.5% since 2014 less so.HYUFD said:
The Tories will almost certainly retain Bromley, Bexley and Hillingdon and gain Havering and have an outside chance of taking Sutton. Other than Barnet with its big Jewish vote, Labour need at least around 10 net gains to gain Wandsworth, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea. The LDs may find it easier to take Kingston Upon Thames and Richmond Park.
On those numbers Hillingdon should be retained albeit with a much reduced majority - I think Havering is very hard to call and assuming a Conservative gain seems to assume a transfer from UKIP to CON which may or may not happen.
You've gone on about the "Jewish vote" in Barnet but the swing needed for Labour to take control is incredibly small.
As for Sutton, "outside chance", well, perhaps and I did cite this as a possibility last year but the LDs held the Borough for a decade before they captured the Parliamentary seats so it's not a simple rationale that because the Conservatives now hold Sutton & Cheam they will mop up the Council seats.
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You're thinking of 1990 when the Conservative leadership tried to make the results all about Wandsworth and Westminster.ydoethur said:
But with the media almost all based in London it's the London results that will get the most coverage. Thatcher suffered some pretty poor results in the 1980s but good results in outer London meant that the headlines didn't reflect this. As there is no reason to expect the Tories to do anything other than disastrously in London at this moment that's unfortunate for them.swing_voter said:The collapse of UKIP may leave enough seats won for there to be meat for the Tories, outside of London the Lib Dem and Labour performance may be under a lot of scrutiny and I havent a clue how that will pan out, I suspect anything can be explained away by special factors although the Lib Dems need something to cheer, even the prospect of a byelection in the wind may be enough to raise their game but otherwise it looks their lean spell will continue
That said I don't think local election results would be the trigger for a move against May in May (sorry for the grammar). They might however make an autumn putsch more likely when the EU talks have reached agreement/collapsed entirely due to Davis' incompetence and Barnier's intransigence.
And showed how out of touch they were the rest of the country and the Conservative MPs who had their constituencies there.
Within six months Thatcher was gone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_19900
