politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final phone poll of 2013 has almost no change on Novemb

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead jumps back up to eight points:
CON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour Lead was 9% a year ago with ComRes.

Definite trend seeing Labour's lead shrinking since this time last year.

You are a disgrace for saying I would cheer Jean de Menezes being shot. You misunderstood what I said and aren't man enough to admit it.

Joker

You're the joker, wanting defence barristers punished for defending clients.

Don't make yourself look an even bigger idiot for trying to deflect away from your silliness.

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead jumps back up to eight points:
CON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%

Pity ! Crossover postponed yet again !!

Phew - I'd have lost £500 if Computerash did bet! I'd offered a bet that this poll would have the Blues 6% or less behind... he bottled it but was right - it was 7% or more...

Hoorar!!!

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour Lead was 9% a year ago with ComRes.

Definite trend seeing Labour's lead shrinking since this time last year.

You are a disgrace for saying I would cheer Jean de Menezes being shot. You misunderstood what I said and aren't man enough to admit it.

Joker

You're the joker, wanting defence barristers punished for defending clients.

Don't make yourself look an even bigger idiot for trying to deflect away from your silliness.

I was wrong to say that about the lawyer, although I don't think I could defend Michael Adabalajo.

But you are a disgrace for saying I would cheer an innocent man being shot, when nothing I have said remotely suggests that, and a coward for not apologizing

Shame on you

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour Lead was 9% a year ago with ComRes.

Definite trend seeing Labour's lead shrinking since this time last year.

Plumetting Crossover by Xmas








2015

Bobajob said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead jumps back up to eight points:
CON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%

Pity ! Crossover postponed yet again !!

Phew - I'd have lost £500 if Computerash did bet! I'd offered a bet that this poll would have the Blues 6% or less behind... he bottled it but was right - it was 7% or more...

Hoorar!!!

I was just thinking that Scrapheap!! I also thought "I'll never take that"

Odd bouncing about by YouGov although I guess it's all MOEish.

I feel like I've won £500 - shows how pointless polling day to day really is!

Time to lump on a Defoe hat trick tomorrow vs his old team????

The Sun readers have spoken: Wednesday's Sun front page - "Draw a red line on immigration or else!" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/IOpQiXcT7a

One for the cricket fans:

Tomorrow's Matt. Too good. pic.twitter.com/iVLBgvcWJj chrisdeerinrt

I hope that puntahs are dissecting the polling headlines; monitoring Delta-2*; and staying humble. Has anyone looked at the Third-Derivative since, say, early September? It's not just the change in change but the pattern to which it underlies that change.

:junior-will-know:

* First-Derivative only shows the slope between two specific points. It's like certain posters' analysis of when some bloke from 'The Sun' posts YouGov figures: Meaningless and unscientific....

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour Lead was 9% a year ago with ComRes.

Definite trend seeing Labour's lead shrinking since this time last year.

You are a disgrace for saying I would cheer Jean de Menezes being shot. You misunderstood what I said and aren't man enough to admit it.

Joker

You're the joker, wanting defence barristers punished for defending clients.

Don't make yourself look an even bigger idiot for trying to deflect away from your silliness.

I was wrong to say that about the lawyer, although I don't think I could defend Michael Adabalajo.

But you are a disgrace for saying I would cheer an innocent man being shot, when nothing I have said remotely suggests that, and a coward for not apologizing

Shame on you

The shame is all on you.

I could point all the shameful things you've said tonight.

But I'm not going to bore everyone pointing out your comments, that justified mine (and other posters comments to you) by repeating them here.

You retracted your position on defence barristers, in a while you'll retract your other reactionary comments.

Knock yourself out, I'm off to watch some TV then bed, I won't be joining you on your outrage bus.

You don't normally mind boring people with your unfunny shoe stories, why stop now?

You are a gutless, boring coward, and you should be ashamed of yourself

I have no sense of shame, that way my other senses are enhanced.

Plus, I don't mention my shoes, it is other PBers who have seen them, that bring them up.

Pulpstar said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

SMukesh said:

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead jumps back up to eight points:
CON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%

Pity ! Crossover postponed yet again !!

So George Osborne has wasted yet another opportunity to close the gap.

Sounds like AVB's Spurs, we too always missed that opportunity....

Come on, chop chop - Appoint Zola. I'll be up £400 if he gets in.

Unless Tim and Sir Les take us on a great Xmas run, I think you are stuffed until the summer and post the World Cup with the managers then shaken 'out' like Klinsmann perhaps.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Mackem's all over Chelsea - they are 11/10 to qualify, Chelsea old boys a little tired in the last mins...still 4/6 tho?

Did anyone bet in play???? I didn't.... hoorar though.

GeoffM said:

SMukesh said:

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead jumps back up to eight points:
CON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%

Pity ! Crossover postponed yet again !!

So George Osborne has wasted yet another opportunity to close the gap.

Osborne is just biding his time, tormenting and playing with his political enemies.

He's poised and ready to strike, like a coiled hamster.

More like a castrated one!

DavidL said:

SMukesh said:

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead jumps back up to eight points:
CON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%

Pity ! Crossover postponed yet again !!

So George Osborne has wasted yet another opportunity to close the gap.

Didn't somebody relatively famous, if a bit foreign and quite old not die? I am sure I saw something on the Beeb about it.

If this even didn`t happen,you think the people of the UK would have been overjoyed at their chancellor borrowing 111 billion a year after making deficit reduction his flagship policy and claiming he would have eliminated the structural deficit by next year end?

Some very interesting posts over the last few hours that reveal more about the posters than they probably wanted to.

Bobajob said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour Lead was 9% a year ago with ComRes.

Definite trend seeing Labour's lead shrinking since this time last year.

You are a disgrace for saying I would cheer Jean de Menezes being shot. You misunderstood what I said and aren't man enough to admit it.

Joker

You're the joker, wanting defence barristers punished for defending clients.

Don't make yourself look an even bigger idiot for trying to deflect away from your silliness.

I was wrong to say that about the lawyer, although I don't think I could defend Michael Adabalajo.

But you are a disgrace for saying I would cheer an innocent man being shot, when nothing I have said remotely suggests that, and a coward for not apologizing

Shame on you

The shame is all on you.

I could point all the shameful things you've said tonight.

But I'm not going to bore everyone pointing out your comments, that justified mine (and other posters comments to you) by repeating them here.

You retracted your position on defence barristers, in a while you'll retract your other reactionary comments.

Knock yourself out, I'm off to watch some TV then bed, I won't be joining you on your outrage bus.

You don't normally mind boring people with your unfunny shoe stories, why stop now?

You are a gutless, boring coward, and you should be ashamed of yourself

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Bobajob said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead jumps back up to eight points:
CON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%

Pity ! Crossover postponed yet again !!

Phew - I'd have lost £500 if Computerash did bet! I'd offered a bet that this poll would have the Blues 6% or less behind... he bottled it but was right - it was 7% or more...

Hoorar!!!

I was just thinking that Scrapheap!! I also thought "I'll never take that"

Odd bouncing about by YouGov although I guess it's all MOEish.

I feel like I've won £500 - shows how pointless polling day to day really is!

Time to lump on a Defoe hat trick tomorrow vs his old team????

Your luck is in tonight. Maybe ask the missus if she fancies an early night. It's sure to go down better than the Tory Party membership!

I'd forgotten that present, phew - can I get a Tory family club membership with my 'winnings' and join up Scrap jnr and the dog too?

DavidL said:

SMukesh said:

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead jumps back up to eight points:
CON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%

Pity ! Crossover postponed yet again !!

So George Osborne has wasted yet another opportunity to close the gap.

Didn't somebody relatively famous, if a bit foreign and quite old not die? I am sure I saw something on the Beeb about it.

Did someone? I must have missed it. I guess the BBC didn't cover it extensively.

SMukesh said:

DavidL said:

SMukesh said:

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead jumps back up to eight points:
CON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%

Pity ! Crossover postponed yet again !!

So George Osborne has wasted yet another opportunity to close the gap.

Didn't somebody relatively famous, if a bit foreign and quite old not die? I am sure I saw something on the Beeb about it.

If this even didn`t happen,you think the people of the UK would have been overjoyed at their chancellor borrowing 111 billion a year after making deficit reduction his flagship policy and claiming he would have eliminated the structural deficit by next year end?

A mixed bag. Far too much borrowing, too much spending, excellent growth, unbelievable employment figures, ok inflation, some bits and pieces. But the media story was positive and I think it might have made some difference but for whatshisname.

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead jumps back up to eight points:
CON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%

Pity ! Crossover postponed yet again !!

Looks like Santa wont be delivering crossover in his sack to Avery LP for Xmas.

Swingback, swingback......my kingdom for any kind of swingback!

MikeK said:

Yes, calm it a little isam. You'll never convince those on PB who refuse to look evil in the face.

Torture is evil.

I think TSE is doing a fairly good job of making that clear.

This is an odd book, it sounds like Tom Knox 5 but was written in 2008 and the hero is called Knox:

"Fact collides with fiction in Will Adams second pulse-pounding adventure featuring the enigmatic Daniel Knox. On the trail of a Dead Sea Scroll, Knox stumbles across an ancient temple being surreptitiously excavated by evangelical Christians outside Alexandria. A chase ends in tragedy with the death of Alexandria's senior archaeologist, and Knox the chief suspect. Meanwhile, Knox's partner Gaille Bonnard is baby-sitting a television crew around the ancient city of Amarna, home of the multiple mysteries of Pharaoh Akhenaten. Kidnapped by rogue soldiers, her time fast running out, she sends Knox a message hidden in a hostage video, pleading with him to come to her rescue. But Knox has problems of his own, under arrest on suspicion of murder, locked in a police cell half a country away. And the only way for him to find and save her is to crack one of the great unsolved mysteries of the ancient world."

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Exodus-Quest-Will-Adams/dp/0007250886/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1387318124&sr=1-1&keywords=exodus+quest

Didn't SeanT spend months travelling around Egypt researching 'The Deceit' ? It seems he could have got half the ideas from reading this earlier book, which from brief reading I find to be of a much lower standard than SeanT's.

Has the torture thriller industry reached the point where it is swallowing its own tail so to speak. Where every idea has already been partially used before or is there something more sinister happening ?

I suspect there's an enormous conspiracy taking place.

There must be a good torture thriller to be written about this conspiracy.

MikeK said:

Battle For Britain, THERE IS NO OTHER CHOICE. pic.twitter.com/Pf8EjKvEFZ

— John Slade (@JohnSladeWFC) December 17, 2013

The battle is just starting!

Where do I sign up? I want to save Britain from the racists, loonies and fruitcakes of UKIP!

Can't be arsed scrolling through, though I can see some handbags have been swung. Who's lost their mascara and whos' lipstick has been rubbed all over their face.

There will of course be no whole tariffs imposed because they were ruled to be in breach of the human rights of prisoners by the ECHR earlier this year:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23230419

AlbionTilIDie said:

Charles said:

MikeK said:

Yes, calm it a little isam. You'll never convince those on PB who refuse to look evil in the face.

Torture is evil.

I think TSE is doing a fairly good job of making that clear.

Burkhas, nikabs and FGM are forms of torture.

Care to expand 're TSE?

Bobajob said:

compouter1 said:

MikeK said:

Battle For Britain, THERE IS NO OTHER CHOICE. pic.twitter.com/Pf8EjKvEFZ

— John Slade (@JohnSladeWFC) December 17, 2013

The battle is just starting!

That reminds me of Silly Billys "Ten days to save the pound".

Mate - you seen YouGov? You were right. Thankfully you saved Scrapheap's Christmas by not taking the bet.


I know. Just spotted Avery running down the road with goalposts emblazoned with the words "polling crossover".I am always here to educate the uneducated.

compouter1 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead jumps back up to eight points:
CON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%

Pity ! Crossover postponed yet again !!

Phew - I'd have lost £500 if Computerash did bet! I'd offered a bet that this poll would have the Blues 6% or less behind... he bottled it but was right - it was 7% or more...

Hoorar!!!

As I said last night I do not bet.

However, being correct about tonight's poll is enough for me.

PS - Opinion poll post desert on here tonight.....as I said it would be last night on here.

Poll......what poll?

it's not quite a desert when I'm out celebrating my escape from the poll and you actually post that???????????????

Pulpstar said:

compouter1 said:

Pulpstar said:

The conservative share has definitely improved since the autumn statement. But the Labour share hasn't really moved.

Strange how this graph seems to go against what you have just posted:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

Hmm So it does. Human perception of events isn't perfect, seems I was wrong.

Well that graph does go up to mid November

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead jumps back up to eight points:
CON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%

Pity ! Crossover postponed yet again !!

Phew - I'd have lost £500 if Computerash did bet! I'd offered a bet that this poll would have the Blues 6% or less behind... he bottled it but was right - it was 7% or more...

Hoorar!!!

As I said last night I do not bet.

However, being correct about tonight's poll is enough for me.

PS - Opinion poll post desert on here tonight.....as I said it would be last night on here.

Poll......what poll?

it's not quite a desert when I'm out celebrating my escape from the poll and you actually post that???????????????

Scrapheap - It is ever such on here regarding polls. I had actually forgot the Populus poll was released on a Monday as it seemed to have fell off the PB Hodges radar yesterday. Actually noticed the result late last night and realised why it was as popular as a fart in a lift on here.

It will be a Subsection Lord Lucan tonight/in the morning.

another_richard said:

And continuing my amusement at the Knoxian torture thriller conspiracy, from an Amazon customer review:

"Very much a continuation of the first one - using the main central character (Tom Knox) which was possibly the author's major mistake."

Either that customer has read so many torture thrillers that he's getting the character Daniel Knox and the author Tom Knox mixed up ...

... or there is a conspiracy taking place and the Amazon customer is dropping significant hints.

What we need is to have a Tom Knox book to investigate who this Daniel Knox really is and who stands behind him.

The snake is swallowing its own tail, the mirrors are reflecting themselves ...

FPT David L

When my wife was taking her time about producing our first child I had problems with my diary. I had a proof the next day when the moment came. Before I took her to hospital I raced over to the office (in another town) to write a detailed note about what had to be done the next day. Having done this I came back and took her to the hospital.

You look back on these events and wonder. I have no recollection what that case was about. I will remember the day my daughter was born for the rest of my life.
------------

Brilliant story. Hope to meet you at a pb do or something sometime.

BETTING POST

If anyone followed State Go Away (I think) advice on buying "The Field" in League 2 for 11 points you can now cash out for 14 points. I've done so. Or you could let it ride in the knowledge it is value. Up to you.

I imagine - I hope - that for some, reading this/the last thread in the morning will feel like waking up with a sore head next to the biggest minger in the universe.

SeanT said:

This is why I have now moved away from this genre to posher literary thrillers. I am now officially called S K Tremayne.

Tom Knox sounded like a man of action but this S K Tremayne bloke sounds a bit prim and proper.

I visualise them as:

Tom Knox = Magnum
S K Tremayne = Higgins

another_richard said:

another_richard said:

And continuing my amusement at the Knoxian torture thriller conspiracy, from an Amazon customer review:

"Very much a continuation of the first one - using the main central character (Tom Knox) which was possibly the author's major mistake."

Either that customer has read so many torture thrillers that he's getting the character Daniel Knox and the author Tom Knox mixed up ...

... or there is a conspiracy taking place and the Amazon customer is dropping significant hints.

What we need is to have a Tom Knox book to investigate who this Daniel Knox really is and who stands behind him.

The snake is swallowing its own tail, the mirrors are reflecting themselves ...

I think a snake swallowing its own tail was significant in one of the earlier Tom Knox theses.

The symbolism is dramatic...

My final thought for the evening.

It should be mandatory, for some women to wear the Niqab

Carola said:

I imagine - I hope - that for some, reading this/the last thread in the morning will feel like waking up with a sore head next to the biggest minger in the universe.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Last poll prior to the Autumn Statement vs the Latest poll post Autumn Statment

ICM Con +2, Lab -1

ComRes phone poll, Con NC, Lab NC.

ComRes online, Con NC, Lab +1

YouGov, Con +4, Lab NC

Populus, Con nc, Lab NC

Ipsos-Mori Con +1, Lab -1

Opinium, Con +2, Lab +2

Average changes since the Autumn Statement

Con +1.29

Lab +0.14

Can I play this game :

Difference to fist poll after Autumn Statement:

Con +1
Lab +2

The Yougov you have quoted was a complete outlier and showed Labour with a 12% lead, the largest Labour lead for seven months. The other leads that week was 6/8/6/8.

Lies, damn lies....

TheScreamingEagles said:

My agenda is, via my posts and the occasional threads I write, is to corrupt you with my evil, with subtle subliminal messages, referencing true evil.

Yes, I'm talking about 80s/pop music.

Fans of early 80s music may be interested in this fantastic cover of Joe Jackson's 1982 hit "Steppin' Out" by a YouTuber called Tom Brislin:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3JdNGAv8hc&amp

Jeremy Hunt doing his best to get out the NHS vote for Labour

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nhs-staff-told-no-pay-2937572. I can see his point and its one I agree with, pay should be restrained. But MPs should lead by example - the 11% from IPSA is a great way to show solidarity with the workers. Tough times and all that.

Are Labour in favour of the third runway btw ?