politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tick tock. Betting on the date of the UK’s exit from the EU

david_herdson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/965607674011365377

Can you imagine the media running a story of Hague or Cameron being a paid informer for a neo-Nazi group, Bad Al would have summoned the forces of darkness from every corner of the earth and the outriders would be slipping this into every single media appearance. The media wouldn't need to ask Tony for a quote, Bad Al would have every Labourite crow barring it into every answer to every question on every subject.

To be honest, while it's more omission by accident (or inability to do politics, if you prefer), I still think it's the right decision. Fact is, these sort of stories were run pre-2017GE and gained very little traction. It's all a long time ago and those for whom it matters are already in the Con camp. The media have kept the story live and that should help to reinforce the determination of that anti-Corbyn group to stick where they are. The government doesn't need to try to use it - too many people will feel it to be of little importance to today's challenges.

FWIW, I very much doubt that Corbyn was an agent of any nature for the Czechs or anyone else. I do think that they might well have been scoping him out as a potential useful idiot who could spout their propaganda as a "voice for peace and understanding in Europe".

There isn't even any evidence that Corbyn was a useful idiot. Maybe that's even more damaging ...

TheScreamingEagles said:

bigjohnowls said:

Oh I dont know about that

The Dave/pig story isn't true.

Apparently you can't be a member of both the Bullingdon and the Piers Gaveston, Cameron was clearly Bullingdon material, the Piers Gaveston Society is for oiks who think they are posh boys.

Oiks or Oink Oinks?

rcs1000 said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Given that Harold Wilson and Tom Driberg were Commie spies you can understand why the Czechs targeted Corbyn.

As reported in The Telegraph, MI5 disagree with your assertion that Wilson was a spy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/16/historys-greatest-conspiracy-theories/harold-wilson-was-a-soviet-agent/

Well, given MI5 was practically run by the Soviets during the period, is that any surprise?

Bloody Russians. They get everywhere. 13 of them caused Trump to become president. Apparently.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, the name of the Piers Gaveston Society is hardly auspicious...

If I was going to form a University Society I'd call it something respectable like 'Edward II's Poker Society'

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/965607674011365377

Oh lord.

Is it too much to hope that she knows there is more to come on this and doesn't want to jump the gun just yet? You know, like a charge of treason?

Probably.

What do you expect? So far the only known facts about Corbyn is that he chatted about his pet dogs and fish with a Czech "diplomat" and mentioned he didn't like Thatcher and Reagan, and he went on a cycling holiday in East Germany with his wife. A Czech former spy has made vague claims about Corbyn working for the Soviets as well as the Czechs. The latter is contradicted by the official archivist for the Czech spy agency. There were plenty of people who definitely were spies, including the last elected Czech Prime Minister, so it's not as if it's all hidden.

There was a carefully hedged allegation in the ST that he might have received a payment of £10K for his services to them. We also know that the diplomat was expelled by the UK government as a spy. If it were established that a UK MP had received money from a hostile foreign government to disclose information or even insight that he obtained as an MP I think we are getting perilously close to treason.

But the point TSE was making was that even if we are not in that territory it really wasn't an occasion for one of Mrs May's non answers. She just can't help herself.

The same source claims that he organised Live Aid. A shovel full of salt required:

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/965020548592996357

Don't see that in the google translate. The one problem with this story is it is hard to imagine Corbyn either knowing or saying anything useful. I mean, why would he break the habit of a lifetime for the Czechoslovakian Secret police?

"Through the unions and peace movements, questions were addressed to Nelson Mandel. It is because he and his team have been involved in the preparation of supporting events. We finally made a concert in Wembley. It was funded by Czechoslovakia.

Do you mean Live Aid?

- I did that. "

Via Google translate.

DavidL said:

stevef said:

Perhaps Mr Corbyn can clear up the matter regarding the allegations of whether he was a paid spy by authorising the Stasi to publish its files on him.

This is what open, transparent and authentic politicians do.

Why would they need his authorisation?

Why should they bother without it?

It wouldnt take Corbyn a moment from his busy day to authorise the release of the files. I am sure he has nothing to hide.

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/965607674011365377

Oh lord.

Is it too much to hope that she knows there is more to come on this and doesn't want to jump the gun just yet? You know, like a charge of treason?

Probably.

What do you expect? So far the only known facts about Corbyn is that he chatted about his pet dogs and fish with a Czech "diplomat" and mentioned he didn't like Thatcher and Reagan, and he went on a cycling holiday in East Germany with his wife. A Czech former spy has made vague claims about Corbyn working for the Soviets as well as the Czechs. The latter is contradicted by the official archivist for the Czech spy agency. There were plenty of people who definitely were spies, including the last elected Czech Prime Minister, so it's not as if it's all hidden.

There was a carefully hedged allegation in the ST that he might have received a payment of £10K for his services to them. We also know that the diplomat was expelled by the UK government as a spy. If it were established that a UK MP had received money from a hostile foreign government to disclose information or even insight that he obtained as an MP I think we are getting perilously close to treason.

But the point TSE was making was that even if we are not in that territory it really wasn't an occasion for one of Mrs May's non answers. She just can't help herself.

The same source claims that he organised Live Aid. A shovel full of salt required:

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/965020548592996357

Don't see that in the google translate. The one problem with this story is it is hard to imagine Corbyn either knowing or saying anything useful. I mean, why would he break the habit of a lifetime for the Czechoslovakian Secret police?

"Through the unions and peace movements, questions were addressed to Nelson Mandel. It is because he and his team have been involved in the preparation of supporting events. We finally made a concert in Wembley. It was funded by Czechoslovakia.

Do you mean Live Aid?

- I did that. "

Via Google translate.

Ok, maybe I didn't go far enough down. Sorry.

Mr. Eagles, *sighs*

Mr. Pulpstar, alas.

F1: incidentally, I think I got the dates wrong earlier. Mercedes/Ferrari are same day, but it's 22nd, I think, they're unveiling their cars. Tomorrow is Renault and Sauber.

https://twitter.com/mattturner4l/status/965611357734350848

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

bigjohnowls said:

Oh I dont know about that

The Dave/pig story isn't true.

Apparently you can't be a member of both the Bullingdon and the Piers Gaveston, Cameron was clearly Bullingdon material, the Piers Gaveston Society is for oiks who think they are posh boys.

The OTT indignation fanned by CCHQ made me suspect a smokescreen to hide something more plausible and more damaging. But then I saw the book was about three inches thick so gave up.

Dave found it funny, which is why he joked about it in his conference speech.

Privately the joke at CCHQ/No 10 was 'So Lord Ashcroft's published something more embarrassing and wrong than his constituency polls'

FrancisUrquhart said:

david_herdson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/965607674011365377

Can you imagine the media running a story of Hague or Cameron being a paid informer for a neo-Nazi group, Bad Al would have summoned the forces of darkness from every corner of the earth and the outriders would be slipping this into every single media appearance. The media wouldn't need to ask Tony for a quote, Bad Al would have every Labourite crow barring it into every answer to every question on every subject.

To be honest, while it's more omission by accident (or inability to do politics, if you prefer), I still think it's the right decision. Fact is, these sort of stories were run pre-2017GE and gained very little traction. It's all a long time ago and those for whom it matters are already in the Con camp. The media have kept the story live and that should help to reinforce the determination of that anti-Corbyn group to stick where they are. The government doesn't need to try to use it - too many people will feel it to be of little importance to today's challenges.

FWIW, I very much doubt that Corbyn was an agent of any nature for the Czechs or anyone else. I do think that they might well have been scoping him out as a potential useful idiot who could spout their propaganda as a "voice for peace and understanding in Europe".

A willing useful idiot....which is actually worse than a spy in some ways, because a) made him as thick as pigshit and b) his loyalties lay with oppressive communists regimes.

Again, I don't actually think he took on that role - whether or not it was ever offered him in whatever form. but I do think that the Eastern security agencies could well have scoped whether he'd be interested, given his general political stance at the time. However, the lack of evidence is probably evidence enough.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, *sighs*

Mr. Pulpstar, alas.

F1: incidentally, I think I got the dates wrong earlier. Mercedes/Ferrari are same day, but it's 22nd, I think, they're unveiling their cars. Tomorrow is Renault and Sauber.

What's wrong with Edward II's Poker Society?

I love poker, I love history, it's a great way to combine my hobbies

Can I also point out to all you Tory supporters hoping Corbyn is proved to be a Soviet agent, that he is currently about the only thing standing between you and a complete wipe out at the next GE.

Be careful what you wish for.

In a bizarre twist to the current dominant media narrative surrounding Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s supposed links to a former Czech Spy, the man himself, Ján Sarkocy, has now, incredibly, reportedly claimed personal credit for launching Live Aid in an interview with a Slovakian publication yesterday.



Mr Sarkocy, who is said to have met with Corbyn three times during the 1980s under the guise of Czech diplomat, also claimed during the interview that the Labour leader gave him information about exactly what Margaret “Thatcher would have for breakfast, lunch and dinner, and what she would wear next day”.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Can I also point out to all you Tory supporters hoping Corbyn is proved to be a Soviet agent, that he is currently about the only thing standing between you and a complete wipe out at the next GE.

Be careful what you wish for.

To be honest even if the allegations turn out to be true they won't change anything.

If the IRA stuff didn't destroy Corbyn then this won't.

I'd argue the IRA were more a real threat to the day to day lives of Brits than the Eastern Bloc.

FF43 said:

stevef said:

DavidL said:

stevef said:

Perhaps Mr Corbyn can clear up the matter regarding the allegations of whether he was a paid spy by authorising the Stasi to publish its files on him.

This is what open, transparent and authentic politicians do.

Why would they need his authorisation?

Why should they bother without it?

It wouldnt take Corbyn a moment from his busy day to authorise the release of the files. I am sure he has nothing to hide.

That file is probably the STASI spying ON Jeremy Corbyn and is likely to be quite personal. I probably wouldn't release it.

If it involves the details of his trip there with Diane Abbott I am sure we would all prefer that.

While we're here, let's all take a second to remember John Stonehouse.

...

...

Excellent.

JC, you have a template to work to.

stevef said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

david_herdson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/965607674011365377

Can you imagine the media running a story of Hague or Cameron being a paid informer for a neo-Nazi group, Bad Al would have summoned the forces of darkness from every corner of the earth and the outriders would be slipping this into every single media appearance. The media wouldn't need to ask Tony for a quote, Bad Al would have every Labourite crow barring it into every answer to every question on every subject.

To be honest, while it's more omission by accident (or inability to do politics, if you prefer), I still think it's the right decision. Fact is, these sort of stories were run pre-2017GE and gained very little traction. It's all a long time ago and those for whom it matters are already in the Con camp. The media have kept the story live and that should help to reinforce the determination of that anti-Corbyn group to stick where they are. The government doesn't need to try to use it - too many people will feel it to be of little importance to today's challenges.

FWIW, I very much doubt that Corbyn was an agent of any nature for the Czechs or anyone else. I do think that they might well have been scoping him out as a potential useful idiot who could spout their propaganda as a "voice for peace and understanding in Europe".

A willing useful idiot....which is actually worse than a spy in some ways, because a) made him as thick as pigshit and b) his loyalties lay with oppressive communists regimes.

Leopards dont change their spots. Corbynistas arrogantly assume that nothing, no matter what their hero did in the past can damage him. In the end he will do something that reveals him for the low life that he is.

I think jam making , manholes, and allotments is quite low.

Magnificent.

https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/965527833182375936

MarqueeMark said:

FF43 said:

stevef said:

DavidL said:

stevef said:

Perhaps Mr Corbyn can clear up the matter regarding the allegations of whether he was a paid spy by authorising the Stasi to publish its files on him.

This is what open, transparent and authentic politicians do.

Why would they need his authorisation?

Why should they bother without it?

It wouldnt take Corbyn a moment from his busy day to authorise the release of the files. I am sure he has nothing to hide.

That file is probably the STASI spying ON Jeremy Corbyn and is likely to be quite personal. I probably wouldn't release it.

If it was one-way traffic, with just the STASI spying on Corbyn, why would they need h sapproval?

If it is was two-way traffic, that might be a reason....

(I was in East Germany in 1976, just passing through eastwards and then back westwards. Wonder if there was a file on me?)

Yup.

HYUFD said:

over 50% of first time buyers now get on the property ladder with parental support

You do realise this isn't a positive development ?

BannedInParis said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Can I also point out to all you Tory supporters hoping Corbyn is proved to be a Soviet agent, that he is currently about the only thing standing between you and a complete wipe out at the next GE.

Be careful what you wish for.

To be honest even if the allegations turn out to be true they won't change anything.

If the IRA stuff didn't destroy Corbyn then this won't.

I'd argue the IRA were more a real threat to the day to day lives of Brits than the Eastern Bloc.

I don't get the issue - its completely ideologically and behaviorally consistent with the man. I'd have been more shocked had he turned out not to be a traitor, in all honesty.

"had he turned out" or "if he turns out"?

Richard_Nabavi said:

DavidL said:

FF43 said:

stevef said:

DavidL said:

stevef said:

Perhaps Mr Corbyn can clear up the matter regarding the allegations of whether he was a paid spy by authorising the Stasi to publish its files on him.

This is what open, transparent and authentic politicians do.

Why would they need his authorisation?

Why should they bother without it?

It wouldnt take Corbyn a moment from his busy day to authorise the release of the files. I am sure he has nothing to hide.

That file is probably the STASI spying ON Jeremy Corbyn and is likely to be quite personal. I probably wouldn't release it.

If it involves the details of his trip there with Diane Abbott I am sure we would all prefer that.

Oh I don't know, it could be hilarious. "Subject A and Subject B had lunch, Bratwurst and red cabbage. Subject A talked a lot about the great leader. Subject B said very little. In the afternoon Subject A and Subject B visited the Palace of the East German Workers. Subject A seemed very interested in the exhibit on progress in riveting productivity in the DDR..."

I wonder if his manhole collection has an international aspect to it?

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

over 50% of first time buyers now get on the property ladder with parental support

You do realise this isn't a positive development ?

As a parent I can only agree.

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/965618684583653377

I think that is the first German poll where the AfD is ahead of the SPD?

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/965600517257945089

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

over 50% of first time buyers now get on the property ladder with parental support

You do realise this isn't a positive development ?

It's one of the trends that has broken the housing cycle. Still, I'm going to do it for mine, because there's little choice.

FF43 said:

MarqueeMark said:

If it was one-way traffic, with just the STASI spying on Corbyn, why would they need his approval?

If it is was two-way traffic, that might be a reason....

(I was in East Germany in 1976, just passing through eastwards and then back westwards. Wonder if there was a file on me?)

Because you might find your wife was informing on you, your daughter or a good friend. Not that this applies to Jeremy Corbyn of course. A lot of people would say, I don't want to know. Let the past stay in the past.

Corbyn doesnt think Tony Blair's past should remain in the past over Iraq. Why should Corbyn's during the Cold war and regarding the IRA?

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/965618684583653377

I think that is the first German poll where the AfD is ahead of the SPD?

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/965600517257945089

AfD moving towards becoming the main opposition party in Germany

stevef said:

FF43 said:

MarqueeMark said:

If it was one-way traffic, with just the STASI spying on Corbyn, why would they need his approval?

If it is was two-way traffic, that might be a reason....

(I was in East Germany in 1976, just passing through eastwards and then back westwards. Wonder if there was a file on me?)

Because you might find your wife was informing on you, your daughter or a good friend. Not that this applies to Jeremy Corbyn of course. A lot of people would say, I don't want to know. Let the past stay in the past.

Corbyn doesnt think Tony Blair's past should remain in the past over Iraq. Why should Corbyn's during the Cold war and regarding the IRA?

I was answering Mark's question about why the STASI archivists wouldn't release files without the subject's approval. I don't think a state decision to go to war is comparable with a personal and intimate file on your comings and goings, if that's what the STASI file is, as most of them are.

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/965618684583653377

I think that is the first German poll where the AfD is ahead of the SPD?

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/965600517257945089

AfD moving towards becoming the main opposition party in Germany

I wouldn't say that. If the squeeze on the SPD continues, the Greens are likely to overtake them both.

duplicate

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/965618684583653377

I think that is the first German poll where the AfD is ahead of the SPD?

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/965600517257945089

It is. Health warning: it's INSA, who consistently have AfD higher than everyone else. But clearly not a good poll for the SPD.

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/965618684583653377

I think that is the first German poll where the AfD is ahead of the SPD?

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/965600517257945089

AfD moving towards becoming the main opposition party in Germany

It looks like either way they become the main opposition.

Except I think that if the SPD vote it down they can expect to nudge up to, say, only their second worse result since the war...

There is another way...

(I've done it before when faced with a similar situation).

You suspend the countdown. It's not extended. It's just not running down...

(We had a 30 day clock suspended for 18 months on one project) 15 years ago.

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/965618684583653377

I think that is the first German poll where the AfD is ahead of the SPD?

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/965600517257945089

AfD moving towards becoming the main opposition party in Germany

And the SPD heading towards the Lib Dems. They may well be overtaken by the Greens in the coming weeks as well. It remains to be seen, does it not, whether the membership will back the not so grand Coalition?

The early polls say the members will, but more of this national polling and the mood could change. On the other hand people might see it as a necessity because a fresh election would leave AfD holding the balance of power.

If Corbyn was an undercover agent, he clearly wasn't a very good one. Who knew he was a bit of a lefty?

SouthamObserver said:

It's hard to believe that there were not strong links between the Soviets and the IRA. That may well be one of the ways in which Corbyn could have been useful, of course. He was well connected in Irish republican circles, met IRA leaders regularly and also knew his way around the far left generally. There would certainly have been info he could have provided that would have helped the Soviets build up their picture of the range of threats the British state was facing and to devise ways in which they could exploit them further - which left faction to give money to, who to help into a key position, how to get supporters of the IRA embedded in certain councils, etc.

Just as the Russians have seen Brexit, the election of Trump and the rise of the far right in Europe as opportunities to destabilise Western institutions; so terrorism and the loony left provided opportunities in the 1980s.

The IRA had stronger links with Libya/Gaddafi than the Soviets.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Can I also point out to all you Tory supporters hoping Corbyn is proved to be a Soviet agent, that he is currently about the only thing standing between you and a complete wipe out at the next GE.

Be careful what you wish for.

To be honest even if the allegations turn out to be true they won't change anything.

If the IRA stuff didn't destroy Corbyn then this won't.

I'd argue the IRA were more a real threat to the day to day lives of Brits than the Eastern Bloc.

Really? The guy who is putting himself up to be Prime Minister, in charge of the security of the nation? Spying for another nation? I think you have a very optimistic hat on, if you think that won't affect many things - including for example our relationship with other nations. We could wave goodbye to high-grade intel from the US for starters.

And imagine the election campaign. People in dark coats, collars up, big hats, following him around everywhere. Much more fun than the Bottler Brown brown bottles following Gordon around. Corbyn would become a laughing stock.

The IRA were bombing and killing us, even as a child in the 80s/90s I knew about the threat from the IRA.

Apart from poor Georgi Markov, the Soviets didn't kill anyone in the UK on the scale of the IRA.

I think you are showing your age TSE. Certainly in the 1970s and early 80s the Soviets were thought to be a very serious threat. The view in the early 70s in NATO was that they could hold up the overwhelming force of the Soviet army for 7-10 days after which it was time to go nuclear. It was really Reagan's spending on defence that started to change that calculation in a material way.

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/965618684583653377

I think that is the first German poll where the AfD is ahead of the SPD?

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/965600517257945089

AfD moving towards becoming the main opposition party in Germany

And the SPD heading towards the Lib Dems. They may well be overtaken by the Greens in the coming weeks as well. It remains to be seen, does it not, whether the membership will back the not so grand Coalition?

The early polls say the members will, but more of this national polling and the mood could change. On the other hand people might see it as a necessity because a fresh election would leave AfD holding the balance of power.

Any source for that polling? The delegate conference secured sub-60% approval. Wouldn't need a huge change of mind if that vote reflected the wider membership.

Why vote SPD ? Either way you get Merkel. That's a big problem . They should have said no.

Jonathan said:

Why vote SPD ? Either way you get Merkel. That's a big problem . They should have said no.

The weird thing is that I always had the impression that Merkel was a lot more comfortable with significant parts of the SPD than she was with some of her Bavarian allies. Bit like Cameron and some Lib Dems.

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/965618684583653377

I think that is the first German poll where the AfD is ahead of the SPD?

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/965600517257945089

AfD moving towards becoming the main opposition party in Germany

And the SPD heading towards the Lib Dems. They may well be overtaken by the Greens in the coming weeks as well. It remains to be seen, does it not, whether the membership will back the not so grand Coalition?

I think the real story is not the rise of the AfD, but rather the level of fragmentation in Germany.

There's one "big" party with a third of the vote, and then five with 10-15% - AfD, SPD, Greens, Linke and FDP.

Could Germany be the new Italy, where unstable governments are built from three incompatible partners?

Yorkcity said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Can I also point out to all you Tory supporters hoping Corbyn is proved to be a Soviet agent, that he is currently about the only thing standing between you and a complete wipe out at the next GE.

Be careful what you wish for.

To be honest even if the allegations turn out to be true they won't change anything.

If the IRA stuff didn't destroy Corbyn then this won't.

I'd argue the IRA were more a real threat to the day to day lives of Brits than the Eastern Bloc.

It's hard to believe that there were not strong links between the Soviets and the IRA. That may well be one of the ways in which Corbyn could have been useful, of course. He was well connected in Irish republican circles, met IRA leaders regularly and also knew his way around the far left generally. There would certainly have been info he could have provided that would have helped the Soviets build up their picture of the range of threats the British state was facing and to devise ways in which they could exploit them further - which left faction to give money to, who to help into a key position, how to get supporters of the IRA embedded in certain councils, etc.

Just as the Russians have seen Brexit, the election of Trump and the rise of the far right in Europe as opportunities to destabilise Western institutions; so terrorism and the loony left provided opportunities in the 1980s.

Do you and Steve f go out for a pint ?

If they do lets hope nobody orders a Red Bull

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

No time to do a proper reply to Cyclefree's interesting post, but I'd throw in a modest wealth tax on Swiss lines (http://taxsummaries.pwc.com/ID/Switzerland-Individual-Other-taxes) - essentially you pay 0.05% (i.e. one two thousandth) on £30,000-£140,000) rising to 0.3% over £1.7 million.

The effect is to raise money almost imperceptibly from people who are well off (yes if you have £100 million you'll pay nearly £300,000, but on that bank balance you'll say meh), in a way that's harder to evade than income tax (because if you live here you have visible property here too that you can't move to the Cayman Islands); it also discourages people from just leaving wealth piled up in a current account and vacant property/unused land and nudges them into doing something with it, if only making it available for borrowing by someone else. I never met anyone in Switzerland, even rock-ribbed conservatives, who felt this unfair.

It worries me that as a right-winger I am struggling to disagree with that.

My redlines would be: no-one turfed out of their family home, or property, against their will. I would baseline such a tax to a property value index, reviewed annually. I want to see the super-rich and "tax-efficient" investment portfolios paying more tax, not ordinary families.

Agreed (and welcome to the struggle, comrade). Generally the principle applies that people who are wealth-rich but income-poor should have charges accumulate against their assets, only to be applied when they die or sell up.

One of my father's cousins was Viscount Stuart of Findhorn, then owner of a largish estate somewhere near the borders. My father visited his country house and admired the view from the battlements. He asked Stuart where his land ended; Stuart (a nice, but vague man, unlike his forceful younger brother who was Churchill's Chief Whip) said he wasn't actually sure, it was "somewhere over there". It wasn't my father's impression that Stuart was taking a keen using in using his land productively. He rather liked him for it - not a money-grubbing type at all - but in terms of maximising efficient use of land one can see snags, and if a modest annual tax had encouraged him to sell off little bits in the distance for farming or development, it's hard to see it would have done anyone any harm.

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/965618684583653377

I think that is the first German poll where the AfD is ahead of the SPD?

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/965600517257945089

AfD moving towards becoming the main opposition party in Germany

And the SPD heading towards the Lib Dems. They may well be overtaken by the Greens in the coming weeks as well. It remains to be seen, does it not, whether the membership will back the not so grand Coalition?

I think the real story is not the rise of the AfD, but rather the level of fragmentation in Germany.

There's one "big" party with a third of the vote, and then five with 10-15% - AfD, SPD, Greens, Linke and FDP.

Could Germany be the new Italy, where unstable governments are built from three incompatible partners?

And if so is this going to give them Italian like economic performance going forward? The country has huge strengths but they may face regular and extensive political paralysis until there is a significant reshaping of the parties.

Off topic.

Has anyone cracked work life balance? Worked at weekend for third time in a row and now away from home for a week . Craving simpler times.

Has anyone stepped away from a salary for a better life?

MaxPB said:

Cyclefree said:

Casino_Royale said:

On taxes, my view is that income is already heavily taxed. Most people are paying 32%
on any significant income and 42% if they are doing well, on top of which they're paying 2-5% gross contributions for pensions.

Most people really struggle to have much left each month over after paying council tax on top
(another £1k+) utility bills, food, mortgage/rent and transport costs. I don't think it's fair
at all for the State to add to the burden.

That may well be the case. But then people need to realise that if they don't pay more they can't have the public services they appear to want.

Getting it into people's heads that if they want something they will have to pay for it, not expect someone else to do it, is essential if we're not going to go bankrupt as a nation.

That may well mean that they will have to cut back on stuff that is now seen as essential but which were seen as luxuries decades back e.g. lots of foreign holidays, nice cars, phones upgraded every few months, etc etc. We can't keep on paying ourselves more than we earn. At some point, the Micawber rule is going to kick in......

Maybe it's time to make the generation who need all the healthcare and social care services pay for it? Just a suggestion. At the moment we have a generation of above average earners aged between 24 and 40 unable to buy their own homes, paying rent to parasite landlords who are usually 55+ and now the parasite generation is looking to raise tax on the working population to pay for their old age care and healthcare. At some point the working classes will decide they've had enough of being a punching bag for their parents generation.

That is precisely why I suggested NI on those working beyond retirement age and expecting those with assets, including houses, to use them to pay for care, amongst other measures.

But you delude yourself if you think that any group in society is going to be spared paying more if they want the public services they claim they want. And that includes the young, the working classes, everyone.

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/965618684583653377

I think that is the first German poll where the AfD is ahead of the SPD?

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/965600517257945089

AfD moving towards becoming the main opposition party in Germany

And the SPD heading towards the Lib Dems. They may well be overtaken by the Greens in the coming weeks as well. It remains to be seen, does it not, whether the membership will back the not so grand Coalition?

I think the real story is not the rise of the AfD, but rather the level of fragmentation in Germany.

There's one "big" party with a third of the vote, and then five with 10-15% - AfD, SPD, Greens, Linke and FDP.

Could Germany be the new Italy, where unstable governments are built from three incompatible partners?

And if so is this going to give them Italian like economic performance going forward? The country has huge strengths but they may face regular and extensive political paralysis until there is a significant reshaping of the parties.

When Italy had political paralysis - in the 70s and 80s - it was an economic powerhouse. It was the rise of big national parties, and actual majorities in parliament for Forza Italia and the then the DP, that coincided with economic stagnation.

Remember, there's no government like no government/

The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help." - Ronald Reagan

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/965618684583653377

I think that is the first German poll where the AfD is ahead of the SPD?

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/965600517257945089

AfD moving towards becoming the main opposition party in Germany

And the SPD heading towards the Lib Dems. They may well be overtaken by the Greens in the coming weeks as well. It remains to be seen, does it not, whether the membership will back the not so grand Coalition?

I think the real story is not the rise of the AfD, but rather the level of fragmentation in Germany.

There's one "big" party with a third of the vote, and then five with 10-15% - AfD, SPD, Greens, Linke and FDP.

Could Germany be the new Italy, where unstable governments are built from three incompatible partners?

And if so is this going to give them Italian like economic performance going forward? The country has huge strengths but they may face regular and extensive political paralysis until there is a significant reshaping of the parties.

When Italy had political paralysis - in the 70s and 80s - it was an economic powerhouse. It was the rise of big national parties, and actual majorities in parliament for Forza Italia and the then the DP, that coincided with economic stagnation.

Remember, there's no government like no government/

People forget how tragic Italy's economic performance has been. I refuse to blame the Euro; it's too simplistic. However, it certainly took away Italy's favoured tool for improving competitiveness. To think it used to have a bigger economy than both France and the UK.