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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the biggest current political betting market Trump now given a 64% chance of survival
With all the focus on Brexit and Theresa May’s survival in the UK it is sometimes easy to forget that from a political betting point of view the big markets are in the US and particularly on whether Donald Trump survives his first term.
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Unlike Boris, JRM, DD, Mrs May...
But I'm sticking to my long term prediction, there'll never 67 Senators to vote to convict, the GOP are way too complicit in this now.
He's more of an actuarial risk.
* Give the GOP a better candidate for next time
* Rile up the GOP base
* Feed an enduring conspiracy theory, and probably domestic terrorism
* Set a precedent that risks getting the next Dem president impeached in revenge
That said, his scope to appeal to bring back currently hostile voters looks really weak: there are an awful lot of people who just can't stand him. So although I don't see him being impeached I'm sceptical that he'll be re-elected.
"Our offer is based on the assumption that the UK is part of the European Union."
Otherwise...?
Trump cannot win a second term on his base alone. He didnt win the popular vote for his first term. Whether Trump wins a second term depends whether the Democrats field a credible candidate. So many variables.
Although there is a comparison between Trump and Nixon, hatred for Nixon by the east coast establishment went back to the 1940s. Nixon was impeached more because of Hiss than because of Watergate. Trump doesnt have that backstory. Personally I dont see him surviving until 2024. Perhaps he will have a heart attack and die.
Think of it as them taking back control.
At least you’ll have a blue passport.
Trump is safe for this year - but I think Dems will go for it after the mid terms.
Can they get roughly 17 Republican senators to turn? Unlikely but far from impossible I think.
I am confident Mueller will have enough evidence - it’s just whether anyone wants to hear it/cares...
I think we know the answer, you're a traitor.
86% of the 2016 figure consisted of the Anheuser-Busch purchase of SABMiller (London listed, but not exactly a British company), and SoftBank's purchase of ARM.
Excluding those, the drop was more in the order of 30%; keeping the ARM deal in the 2016 figure, as it was a genuine investment in the UK, about 70%.
Motor vehicles and banking investments are obviously suffering from the procrastination/uncertainty on the part of our government.
https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/964113544601055232
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/02/trump-carnage/553424/
It does seems 2 football clubs (so far - more trials start soon north of the border) have issues with one coach but it wasn't recent history and neither is or has been recipient of large amount of taxpayer funds and aren't setting themselves up as a paragon of virtue.
The England case is a lone individual (or so we know so far). Scottish case may involve a larger amount of individuals.
Looks like George is backing another losing cause.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_football_sexual_abuse_scandal
If the influence of the key media players is waning, bad news for them but I think the country can live with it.
https://www.paddypower.com/politics
The only counter-argument is that left wing parties hope to gain an advantage.
I would disagree that there needs to be a one size fits all approach to adulthood however; for me the things you have mentioned such as going into combat and signing binding contracts are both more consequential than being allowed to vote so it makes sense for them to have a higher limit. However this whole debate is having to apply solid boundaries to the transition from childhood to adulthood which is a gradual process and varies greatly between individuals.
I also put a bit on trump not to visit Russia in his first term at 4/6.
Breaking news - Archbishop Desmond Tutu quits Oxfam
I agree that it's not a one-age-fits-all thing, but to me the absolutely crucial comparison here is the one about signing binding contracts. That is quintessentially about being considered old enough to take responsibility; that should surely apply to voting as much as to contracts.
As I recall the FT in particular gives away/heavily discounts a surprising (until I thought about it) number of copies
In the old days, you could reach the threshold with holiday and weekend work, but now the first £11,500 is tax free it's almost impossible to get there.
FWIW we had 16 year olds voting in the Indyref. I had tactical reservations at the start but by the end thought it was a good thing. My daughter, who was 17 at the time, was very active for Better Together and a very fine canvasser who could explain the pros and cons succinctly and effectively. It would have been ridiculous if she had been denied a vote at the end of it all. If we are going to have better choices for PM from either party in 20-25 years time we need many of the young to catch the politics bug and become engaged in the process.
* Actually it's only two people. But even so.
The same doesn't apply to contracts because people don't sign contracts because they're totally fascinated by legal wording, they sign them because they'll get stuff.
Yes it will happen. If they don't follow up and ask how/what/when etc you are OK.
a) traditionally patriotic,
b) likely to vote Labour,
c) so far unaware of Corbyn's backstory, and
d) give a shit what Gavin Williamson thinks.
Who are they? Has anybody ever met one?
Universal suffrage has nothing to do with income.
a) Conservative party members
b) who are likely to be voting in a leadership election contest sometime soon and
c) who might be open to considering voting for a Defence Secretary who sticks it to Jeremy Corbyn on a subject Conservative party members feel strongly about.
If it is from an EU-27 company directly, then it is irrelevant as the tariff would effectively be charged (to you) on top by HMRC following Brexit, if there is no trade agreement. (And the contract price to you would increase by the imposed tariff and there would be nothing you could do about it.)
More of an issue for them (and perhaps the reason behind the clause), could be that whatever they make has substantial British components. If (say) 40% of the components of your widget come from the UK, then if there is no FTA, then their cost of manufacturing might rise significantly.
Of course, you need to be mindful of the British competitors costs too, and also of any force majeure clauses in the contract. If a substantial portion of the costs of the widget come from the EU, or any of the 90-odd countries the EU has FTAs with, then it is possible the manufacturing costs for the widget will rise substantially for them. You don't want a situation where they break off the contract, or find themselves in financial trouble.
Of course, in all likelihood there will be an FTA, and so these concerns are irrelevant, but I would be looking very hard at all contracts now, and potentially revising them to cover edge scenarios.
I'm horrendous at making money. Ironically, gambling is the most financially 'sensible' thing I've done. Could do with a few more 250/1 winners, though...
Oh, and The Last City, a sci-fi anthology with a story by me in it, is out today.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Last-City-Dust-Publishing-anthology-ebook/dp/B079JW6F6K/
Trainers is one of the areas he is looking at but the margins seem higher for designer tops etc. He has also been tracking the resale price of an extra ticket that he has bought for a gig and analysed how such prices tend to start high, fall off and then rise again nearer the day as supply decreases. Next year he gets to sit his National 5 in economics. Think it might go ok.
(And, indeed, he should listen to the podcast. It's pretty well made.)
Diplomat: They’re very excited about Brexit here. Their eyes light up when you mention it.
Why is that?
They think we’ve neglected them. I’ve told them that we’ll now be able to focus more on them.
How so? Aren’t we cutting staff at our non-European embassies at the moment?
Yes, but the key thing is that we’ll be free to do trade deals!
Don’t we have one now?
Yes, through the EU, but now we’ll be able to offer them a bespoke deal.
What will we be able to offer them, given that, as an LDC [Less Developed Country], they already have duty free and quota free access to our market?
We can offer a bespoke deal when they graduate from LDC status to being a middle income country. Under EU rules, to keep access, they’ll have to follow all kinds of rules and red-tape. We can offer to scrap that.
What kind of rules are you thinking of?
International Labour Organisation [ILO] conventions that the EU insists on.
So Britain would say “don’t worry about child labour, safety, rights at work, we’ll turn a blind eye to such matters?
We’d say it’s up to them to choose which standards they want to apply. We won’t restrict their exports because of their choices.
So you think they’d be happy to lower their standards, cease applying international norms, and thereby lose access to the EU market (which is their main export market) and to other markets, just because Britain says it won’t hold them to international rules?
No, I’m saying that we’re free to make deals tailored to their needs.
That’s the message being pushed by Britain?
I’m a civil servant. I’m just explaining the options available to ministers. It will be their decision. But these options are always well received when I mention them here on private occasions like dinner parties.
How long have you been posted here?
Two and a half weeks.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/14/porter-scandal-white-house-sanders-trump-410797
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/964169449241763841
However, it is already inconsistent (the army recruitment age being one commonly brought up) and in any case the point was conceded when 16 yr olds were allowed to vote in the SindyRef, so while my preference would be harmonising other things so they take place at 18, not 16, I think 16 is an inevitability at this point and not worth getting worked about.