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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Brexit process trundles on tonight’s PB cartoon

Thanks once again to Nicholas Leonard and Helen Cochrane.
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Apropos of nothing, I'll add my congratulations and best wishes for @Cyclefrees new business endeavour!
Or alternatively if you are channelling Ian Gilmour, the Prime Minster's devious hand.
More seriously I think they are looking for a fudge here. It all seems very strange and may be a sign that we have given way over something else.
HYUFD is finally proven right about something!
Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
Maybe it turns out starting from a position of full alignment and 100bn trade deficit does shorten trade negotiations after all...
I am both excited and apprehensive.......
I started out on my own, reverse ferreted into consulting, then went back on my own after a couple of years. Never looked back. You'll be your own best boss!
Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU
And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.
Didn't you think Florence was going to be SM/CU too?
Edit: also, we wouldn't need a trade agreement if it were - so it isn't...
When we cross it but pretend we havent
Nowadays, people around the world are regularly buying goods from other countries on eBay and other platforms, using PayPal, Stripe or similar to transfer money across currencies. It doesn't take much to realise what the next steps will be....
The Uk is out and staying out.
Your Monty Python Black Knight retreat is well underway.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Italian_general_election,_2018#Coalition_vote
I also noted May reached out to her European partners in Florence. She should have done that a year earlier when it might have made a difference.
More seriously, I am very grateful for Remainers continually
Playing down expectations. Providing Brexit isn't on par with the opening of Pandora's Box, May is going to look like a titan.
Why would anyone now donate to Oxfam?
If you are relying upon the young to take you back into the EU then you are truly screwed.
How did those same people vote in 2016 ?
After all, it was only this morning that a number of prominent Remainers were arguing that it was minor compared to drunken, boorish antics at the President's Club.
If any of the allegations against Oxfam are substantiated, then there are going to be multiple resignations.
The pattern of voting across age groups showed that support for staying in the EEC was actually higher amongst older age groups: 80 per cent of those aged 65 and older voted in favour of membership, compared to 73 per cent and 72 per cent, respectively, of those aged 45-64 and 30-44; it was lowest at 62 per cent of those aged 18-29.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/
I would be sad to see the end of Oxfam - their second hand bookshops are great.
Which leaves the Single Market/Norway as the only remaining option. But it is not a good or comfortable option. Rule taking doesn't suit us. We're not Norwegian.
Still it does show the huge shift in that generation since then.
The staff in the bookshops always seem studenty to me.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-43007377/2500-young-italians-compete-for-one-job
Edit. The particular problem with an FTA for us is time. You would normally stuck with the status quo until you are ready to move. We can't do that because the status quo is disappearing.
Abuse rife in Oxfam shops
A generation ago nobody was talking about leaving the EU, the issue then was whether and when the UK should join the Euro.
Out will be the status quo
Leaving will not have been the end of the world that was predicted - people will still be able to travel around Europe and we will not be an isolated little island
The EU will continue to integrate and in fact will do so more rapidly.
Rejoining will mean paying far more than we do now and accepting things like the single currency.
All of these things will militate against rejoining. When we are out that will be it. For good. If you want to stay in the EU the only way for you to do so will be to move there.
If you recruit people and ignore such warning signs, however minor, don’t be surprised if this comes back to bite you later.
Oxfam are also giving a master class in how to make a bad situation very very much worse.
Its CEO was stating on the news tonight that in 2011 it was not contrary to its Code of Conduct for its staff to use prostitutes, seemingly unaware of how such a statement came across. The question he should have asked himself when these allegations first surfaced and he was being advised that there was no breach of the Code of Conduct was: “ Would I be happy for this story and my response to be published on the front page of the newspaper?”