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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Brexit process trundles on tonight’s PB cartoon

Thanks once again to Nicholas Leonard and Helen Cochrane.

Read the full story here

MarqueeMark

Pfffffffffff..........

kle4

Well done - the tagline works very well.

RobD

A douglas...

Stark_Dawning

williamglenn said:

Mortimer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Mortimer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Mortimer said:

Stark_Dawning said:

'Full access to the Customs union' doesn't mean what you think it means.

The world has full access to the Customs union, providing their products meet standards.

What do you think I think it means?

Well, for a start, you said it would solve the NI border - it wouldn't.

What would solve the NI border problem?

Ireland reverting to the default position pre-Varadkar; working together on a technological solution.

Happy now?
https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/963106772541149184

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

RobD

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

Pulpstar

That house in West Hampstead. IIknow a whole bunch of you live in London, belong to any pbers ?

Mortimer

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

- far too straight forward for a PBer to entertain...!

John_M

If the EU has any sense, they'll be spinning up an associate membership scheme. It'd be a useful mechanism - not least because some countries might not, when it comes to it, wish to join the Euro, treaty obligations or no. I doubt they will, but one can live in hope.

Apropos of nothing, I'll add my congratulations and best wishes for @Cyclefrees new business endeavour!

ydoethur

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot?

The thing on the end of a leg.

Or alternatively if you are channelling Ian Gilmour, the Prime Minster's devious hand.

More seriously I think they are looking for a fudge here. It all seems very strange and may be a sign that we have given way over something else.

ydoethur

John_M said:

If the EU has any sense

I think I have spotted a tiny flaw in your plan...

Mortimer

Pulpstar said:

That house in West Hampstead. IIknow a whole bunch of you live in London, belong to any pbers ?

A pal of mine used to live very near it. Nice area!

kle4

John_M said:

If the EU has any sense, they'll be spinning up an associate membership scheme.

I'm surprised they haven't had one in place for years already.

RoyalBlue

Mortimer said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

- far too straight forward for a PBer to entertain...!

What a miseryguts - now we won’t get to spend hours interpreting tweets from nobodies and calling each other names.

Stark_Dawning

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

MarqueeMark

RoyalBlue said:

Mortimer said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

- far too straight forward for a PBer to entertain...!

What a miseryguts - now we won’t get to spend hours interpreting tweets from nobodies and calling each other names.

Who needs tweets?

Mortimer

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

Surprisingly enough, it looks like there is going to be a UK-Eu trade agreement; who would have thought it, with a 100bn deficit in the EU's favor, eh?

HYUFD is finally proven right about something!

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot?

The thing on the end of a leg.

Or alternatively if you are channelling Ian Gilmour, the Prime Minster's devious hand.

More seriously I think they are looking for a fudge here. It all seems very strange and may be a sign that we have given way over something else.

The Irish border issue was always going to require some limited edition EU fudge.

Mortimer

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot?

The thing on the end of a leg.

Or alternatively if you are channelling Ian Gilmour, the Prime Minster's devious hand.

More seriously I think they are looking for a fudge here. It all seems very strange and may be a sign that we have given way over something else.

The Irish border issue was always going to require some limited edition EU fudge.

I wonder if something like this:

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement

Maybe it turns out starting from a position of full alignment and 100bn trade deficit does shorten trade negotiations after all...

RobD

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think that is what is being proposed.

Cyclefree

John_M said:

If the EU has any sense, they'll be spinning up an associate membership scheme. It'd be a useful mechanism - not least because some countries might not, when it comes to it, wish to join the Euro, treaty obligations or no. I doubt they will, but one can live in hope.

Apropos of nothing, I'll add my congratulations and best wishes for @Cyclefrees new business endeavour!

Thank you. Officially launched today - and a few minutes ago on LinkedIn.

I am both excited and apprehensive.......

RobD

Cyclefree said:

John_M said:

If the EU has any sense, they'll be spinning up an associate membership scheme. It'd be a useful mechanism - not least because some countries might not, when it comes to it, wish to join the Euro, treaty obligations or no. I doubt they will, but one can live in hope.

Apropos of nothing, I'll add my congratulations and best wishes for @Cyclefrees new business endeavour!

Thank you. Officially launched today - and a few minutes ago on LinkedIn.

I am both excited and apprehensive.......

Good luck!

John_M

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

Mortimer

Cyclefree said:

John_M said:

If the EU has any sense, they'll be spinning up an associate membership scheme. It'd be a useful mechanism - not least because some countries might not, when it comes to it, wish to join the Euro, treaty obligations or no. I doubt they will, but one can live in hope.

Apropos of nothing, I'll add my congratulations and best wishes for @Cyclefrees new business endeavour!

Thank you. Officially launched today - and a few minutes ago on LinkedIn.

I am both excited and apprehensive.......

Bon chance.

I started out on my own, reverse ferreted into consulting, then went back on my own after a couple of years. Never looked back. You'll be your own best boss!

DecrepitJohnL

Mortimer said:

Pulpstar said:

That house in West Hampstead. IIknow a whole bunch of you live in London, belong to any pbers ?

A pal of mine used to live very near it. Nice area!

I went to college up that way. My first year there, I came out of the tube, there was snow on the ground, and in the greengrocer's window were peaches. I'd never seen this before. Rich people have peaches in winter!

Jonathan

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

MarqueeMark

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Enjoy your wet dream.....

Richard_Tyndall

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

kyf_100

ydoethur said:

John_M said:

If the EU has any sense

I think I have spotted a tiny flaw in your plan...

The EU won't endorse "associate membership" status for the UK because it knows other countries would want similar treatment. It is their way or the highway - ever closer union or GTFO.

Jonathan

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Enjoy your wet dream.....

A never ending join/rejoin cycle is an even worse nightmare than this current dystopian omnishambles.

RobD

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Which centrist party would this be?

williamglenn

kyf_100 said:

ydoethur said:

John_M said:

If the EU has any sense

I think I have spotted a tiny flaw in your plan...

The EU won't endorse "associate membership" status for the UK because it knows other countries would want similar treatment. It is their way or the highway - ever closer union or GTFO.

Define "associate membership" in a way that isn't cakeist and then you might get somewhere. If you want all the benefits and none of the obligations, you won't.

RobD

williamglenn said:

kyf_100 said:

ydoethur said:

John_M said:

If the EU has any sense

I think I have spotted a tiny flaw in your plan...

The EU won't endorse "associate membership" status for the UK because it knows other countries would want similar treatment. It is their way or the highway - ever closer union or GTFO.

Define "associate membership" in a way that isn't cakeist and then you might get somewhere. If you want all the benefits and none of the obligations, you won't.

There are many benefits we could forgo: Schengen, Euro, common foreign policy, EU army.....

ydoethur

williamglenn said:

kyf_100 said:

ydoethur said:

John_M said:

If the EU has any sense

I think I have spotted a tiny flaw in your plan...

The EU won't endorse "associate membership" status for the UK because it knows other countries would want similar treatment. It is their way or the highway - ever closer union or GTFO.

Define "associate membership" in a way that isn't cakeist and then you might get somewhere. If you want all the benefits and none of the obligations, you won't.

Indeed yes. For such things you have to be full members like the French.

FF43

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

Going on what Varadkar was saying this evening it sounds like UK wide SM+CU but let's not call it that.

RobD

FF43 said:

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

Going on what Varadkar was saying this evening it sounds like UK wide SM+CU but let's not call it that.

I find it very unlikely that the the UK will still be in the Single Market after all is said and done.

Mortimer

FF43 said:

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

Going on what Varadkar was saying this evening it sounds like UK wide SM+CU but let's not call it that.

Remember the golden rule of Brexit....

Didn't you think Florence was going to be SM/CU too?

Edit: also, we wouldn't need a trade agreement if it were - so it isn't...

RobD

Mortimer said:

Remember the golden rule of Brexit....

Brexit means Brexit?

williamglenn

RobD said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

Going on what Varadkar was saying this evening it sounds like UK wide SM+CU but let's not call it that.

I find it very unlikely that the the UK will still be in the Single Market after all is said and done.

Which economic sectors do you think the government will be prepared to sacrifice in the course of the negotiations?

Big_G_NorthWales

Telegraph's front page is devastating for Oxfam

bigjohnowls

RobD said:

Mortimer said:

Remember the golden rule of Brexit....

Brexit means Brexit?

When is a red line not a red line?

When we cross it but pretend we havent

RobD

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

Going on what Varadkar was saying this evening it sounds like UK wide SM+CU but let's not call it that.

I find it very unlikely that the the UK will still be in the Single Market after all is said and done.

Which economic sectors do you think the government will be prepared to sacrifice in the course of the negotiations?

The turnip sector.

Foxy

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

I reckon 5 years longer than that, but I can wait

RobD

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

I reckon 5 years longer than that, but I can wait

It's going to be a very different beast then.

OchEye

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

We may never go back into the EU, but some time in the near future, we will be in some form of world union. The laws of economics and business demands that standards and rules of trading and commerce become, standardised! A cucumber grown in Greece, will be graded according to an accepted standard, and can be reliably purchased by a merchant in Anchorage or Sydney without them seeing it, using an accepted common currency.

Nowadays, people around the world are regularly buying goods from other countries on eBay and other platforms, using PayPal, Stripe or similar to transfer money across currencies. It doesn't take much to realise what the next steps will be....

williamglenn

Richard_Tyndall said:

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

Does this definition of 'we' include Northern Ireland?

Foxy

RobD said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

I reckon 5 years longer than that, but I can wait

It's going to be a very different beast then.

Our governent will certainly say so. But they would, wouldn't they?

ExiledInScotland

OchEye said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

We may never go back into the EU, but some time in the near future, we will be in some form of world union. The laws of economics and business demands that standards and rules of trading and commerce become, standardised! A cucumber grown in Greece, will be graded according to an accepted standard, and can be reliably purchased by a merchant in Anchorage or Sydney without them seeing it, using an accepted common currency.

Nowadays, people around the world are regularly buying goods from other countries on eBay and other platforms, using PayPal, Stripe or similar to transfer money across currencies. It doesn't take much to realise what the next steps will be....

Economic union requires political union. That will not happen unless we have mechanisms to dismiss our government. History shows that unrestrained power at the top ends very very badly for the people at the bottom

TGOHF

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

Does this definition of 'we' include Northern Ireland?

Yes and Scotland.

The Uk is out and staying out.

Your Monty Python Black Knight retreat is well underway.

RobD

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

I reckon 5 years longer than that, but I can wait

It's going to be a very different beast then.

Our governent will certainly say so. But they would, wouldn't they?

I don't think this has anything to do with what the government may or may not say. The direction in which the EU is headed is clear.

AndyJS

The latest Italian opinion polls seem to suggest that the next prime minister is very likely to be either Berlusconi or the leader of the Northern League, or am I reading the polls wrongly?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Italian_general_election,_2018#Coalition_vote

RobD

AndyJS said:

The latest Italian opinion polls seem to suggest that the next prime minister is very likely to be either Berlusconi or the leader of the Northern League, or am I reading the polls wrongly?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Italian_general_election,_2018#Coalition_vote

Isn't he still barred from being PM? What a change in fortunes though!

TGOHF

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/963083364910731266

Mexicanpete

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

Citation needed!

Big_G_NorthWales

AndyJS said:

The latest Italian opinion polls seem to suggest that the next prime minister is very likely to be either Berlusconi or the leader of the Northern League, or am I reading the polls wrongly?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Italian_general_election,_2018#Coalition_vote

And in Germany SPD down to 16.5%.

FF43

RobD said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

Going on what Varadkar was saying this evening it sounds like UK wide SM+CU but let's not call it that.

I find it very unlikely that the the UK will still be in the Single Market after all is said and done.

It's too early to sign up for the Single Market, I agree. We'll only go for the Single Market if and when the hopelessness of the alternatives are brought home to us. What Varadkar wants isn't necessarily what will happen.

brendan16

RobD said:

Mortimer said:

Remember the golden rule of Brexit....

Brexit means Brexit?

And Mrs May is going to make a right mess of it.

MarqueeMark

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/963083364910731266

If they fall below AfD before the vote, will the membership scotch the coalition?

Big_G_NorthWales

FF43 said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

Going on what Varadkar was saying this evening it sounds like UK wide SM+CU but let's not call it that.

I find it very unlikely that the the UK will still be in the Single Market after all is said and done.

It's too early to sign up for the Single Market, I agree. We'll only go for the Single Market if and when the hopelessness of the alternatives are brought home to us. What Varadkar wants isn't necessarily what will happen.

But it could

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/963167895210602498

brendan16

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

The nation of Wolfe Tone, Parnell, Michael Collins and de Valera that fought for centuries to escape one empire quite happily settles to becoming a vassal state and tool of another. Shouldn't Varadkhar and Coveney be demanding what is best for Ireland and not what is most convenient for the EU?

MarqueeMark

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/963167895210602498

It really might not survive that.

FF43

Mortimer said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

Going on what Varadkar was saying this evening it sounds like UK wide SM+CU but let's not call it that.

Remember the golden rule of Brexit....

Didn't you think Florence was going to be SM/CU too?

Edit: also, we wouldn't need a trade agreement if it were - so it isn't...

What I said about Florence is that May rejected every realistic outcome for Brexit, including the undesirable ones. They are all undesirable, that's the point.The speech was a blueprint for something that cannot exist.

I also noted May reached out to her European partners in Florence. She should have done that a year earlier when it might have made a difference.

RobD

brendan16 said:

RobD said:

Mortimer said:

Remember the golden rule of Brexit....

Brexit means Brexit?

And Mrs May is going to make a right mess of it.

I can guarantee you that it’ll be the best Brexit in history.

TGOHF

brendan16 said:

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

The nation of Wolfe Tone, Parnell, Michael Collins and de Valera that fought for centuries to escape one empire quite happily settles to becoming a vassal state and tool of another. Shouldn't Varadkhar and Coveney be demanding what is best for Ireland and not what is most convenient for the EU?

Elements in Ireland were happy to use the Germans in WWI and II to further their anti Brit agenda. This latest plank appears to be another useful idiot.

williamglenn

brendan16 said:

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

The nation of Wolfe Tone, Parnell, Michael Collins and de Valera that fought for centuries to escape one empire quite happily settles to becoming a vassal state and tool of another. Shouldn't Varadkhar and Coveney be demanding what is best for Ireland and not what is most convenient for the EU?

What is best for Ireland is for the whole of the UK to stay in the single market and customs union so what they are doing is perfectly in line with their national interests.

oxfordsimon

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/963167895210602498

It really might not survive that.

Certainly doesn't look like one resignation is enough.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/963178402315427840

Big_G_NorthWales

oxfordsimon said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/963167895210602498

It really might not survive that.

Certainly doesn't look like one resignation is enough.

The brand is under serious threat if any of these allegations are proven and many more resignations will be demanded and in some cases the police need to be involved

Recidivist

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

On the contrary. Nothing is more certain than that we will rejoin. Talk to some young people.

Mortimer

FF43 said:

Mortimer said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

Going on what Varadkar was saying this evening it sounds like UK wide SM+CU but let's not call it that.

Remember the golden rule of Brexit....

Didn't you think Florence was going to be SM/CU too?

Edit: also, we wouldn't need a trade agreement if it were - so it isn't...

What I said about Florence is that May rejected every realistic outcome for Brexit, including the undesirable ones. They are all undesirable, that's the point.The speech was a blueprint for something that cannot exist.

I also noted May reached out to her European partners in Florence. She should have done that a year earlier when it might have made a difference.

Remainer thinks leaving is undesirable shocker?

More seriously, I am very grateful for Remainers continually
Playing down expectations. Providing Brexit isn't on par with the opening of Pandora's Box, May is going to look like a titan.

Recidivist

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

The nation of Wolfe Tone, Parnell, Michael Collins and de Valera that fought for centuries to escape one empire quite happily settles to becoming a vassal state and tool of another. Shouldn't Varadkhar and Coveney be demanding what is best for Ireland and not what is most convenient for the EU?

What is best for Ireland is for the whole of the UK to stay in the single market and customs union so what they are doing is perfectly in line with their national interests.

And as it happens, perfectly in line with the UK's interests too.

oxfordsimon

Big_G_NorthWales said:

oxfordsimon said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/963167895210602498

It really might not survive that.

Certainly doesn't look like one resignation is enough.

The brand is under serious threat if any of these allegations are proven and many more resignations will be demanded and in some cases the police need to be involved

Today's actions have certainly not been enough. And tonight's new revelations are particularly damaging.

Why would anyone now donate to Oxfam?

Richard_Tyndall

Recidivist said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

On the contrary. Nothing is more certain than that we will rejoin. Talk to some young people.

LOL. Keep dreaming. Its just like all those claims we have heard down the year about how the Tories are finished because all the old people are dying. Young people become middle aged people and then old people and as they do they actually start to learn something and realise the world is not as they thought and, more importantly, nor should it be.

If you are relying upon the young to take you back into the EU then you are truly screwed.

williamglenn

Richard_Tyndall said:

Recidivist said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

On the contrary. Nothing is more certain than that we will rejoin. Talk to some young people.

LOL. Keep dreaming. Its just like all those claims we have heard down the year about how the Tories are finished because all the old people are dying. Young people become middle aged people and then old people and as they do they actually start to learn something and realise the world is not as they thought and, more importantly, nor should it be.

If you are relying upon the young to take you back into the EU then you are truly screwed.

Do you think Northern Ireland will vote for reunification and if so, how soon?

Big_G_NorthWales

oxfordsimon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

oxfordsimon said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/963167895210602498

It really might not survive that.

Certainly doesn't look like one resignation is enough.

The brand is under serious threat if any of these allegations are proven and many more resignations will be demanded and in some cases the police need to be involved

Today's actions have certainly not been enough. And tonight's new revelations are particularly damaging.

Why would anyone now donate to Oxfam?

Sky's paper reviewers virtually giving Oxfam it's last rights tonight

another_richard

Recidivist said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

On the contrary. Nothing is more certain than that we will rejoin. Talk to some young people.

The young people of 1975 probably voted 75% to remain in the 'common market'.

How did those same people vote in 2016 ?

Richard_Tyndall

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

Does this definition of 'we' include Northern Ireland?

I can certainly see a day when Ireland is united and unlike most on here I welcome that idea. So no it does not include Northern Ireland.

YBarddCwsc

oxfordsimon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

oxfordsimon said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/963167895210602498

It really might not survive that.

Certainly doesn't look like one resignation is enough.

The brand is under serious threat if any of these allegations are proven and many more resignations will be demanded and in some cases the police need to be involved

Today's actions have certainly not been enough. And tonight's new revelations are particularly damaging.

Why would anyone now donate to Oxfam?

The allegations (& they are only allegations at the moment) do seem to have increased in seriousness dramatically.

After all, it was only this morning that a number of prominent Remainers were arguing that it was minor compared to drunken, boorish antics at the President's Club.

If any of the allegations against Oxfam are substantiated, then there are going to be multiple resignations.

williamglenn

another_richard said:

Recidivist said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

On the contrary. Nothing is more certain than that we will rejoin. Talk to some young people.

The young people of 1975 probably voted 75% to remain in the 'common market'.

How did those same people vote in 2016 ?

You're wrong. Young people were the most Eurosceptic in 1975.

The pattern of voting across age groups showed that support for staying in the EEC was actually higher amongst older age groups: 80 per cent of those aged 65 and older voted in favour of membership, compared to 73 per cent and 72 per cent, respectively, of those aged 45-64 and 30-44; it was lowest at 62 per cent of those aged 18-29.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/

RobD

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

Recidivist said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

On the contrary. Nothing is more certain than that we will rejoin. Talk to some young people.

The young people of 1975 probably voted 75% to remain in the 'common market'.

How did those same people vote in 2016 ?

You're wrong. Young people were the most Eurosceptic in 1975.

The pattern of voting across age groups showed that support for staying in the EEC was actually higher amongst older age groups: 80 per cent of those aged 65 and older voted in favour of membership, compared to 73 per cent and 72 per cent, respectively, of those aged 45-64 and 30-44; it was lowest at 62 per cent of those aged 18-29.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/

What % of that cohort voted to remain at the 2016 referendum?

another_richard

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/963167895210602498

It really might not survive that.

Or to put it another way Oxfam workers offered money from British taxpayers for sex.

I would be sad to see the end of Oxfam - their second hand bookshops are great.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/963182072901881858

FF43

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

Going on what Varadkar was saying this evening it sounds like UK wide SM+CU but let's not call it that.

I find it very unlikely that the the UK will still be in the Single Market after all is said and done.

It's too early to sign up for the Single Market, I agree. We'll only go for the Single Market if and when the hopelessness of the alternatives are brought home to us. What Varadkar wants isn't necessarily what will happen.

But it could

I think we will end up in the Single Market by elimination, but it could be a rocky road to get there. I don't see Canada/FTA working. The outcome is uncertain, it takes too long, we would have to pass through more than one cliff edge or spend time in WTO purgatory. All the time business will be moving away from the UK to the EU. And any eventual agreement is guaranteed to be very mediocre. No deal isn't a viable option - it doesn't mean we won't go there however. We can't do without a system of international agreements, which in practice will be dominated by the EU. WTO is chaos.We rejected membership of the EU.

Which leaves the Single Market/Norway as the only remaining option. But it is not a good or comfortable option. Rule taking doesn't suit us. We're not Norwegian.

Big_G_NorthWales

another_richard said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/963167895210602498

It really might not survive that.

Or to put it another way Oxfam workers offered money from British taxpayers for sex.

I would be sad to see the end of Oxfam - their second hand bookshops are great.

And allegations of sexual abuse in its UK shops

RobD

FF43 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

John_M said:

Stark_Dawning said:

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. What's afoot? Clearly Eire can't make unilateral trade deals with us without leaving the EU, and that's not going to happen. I wonder if we're talking some kind of EU-endorsed special status for the UK within the EU here. If correctly spun ('a historic settlement for a sustained and prosperous peace') then the likes of Rees-Mogg couldn't rain on the parade without appearing churlish and irresponsible. (I think Boris would come on board if the choice of words didn't make him appear a sell-out.) Theresa might be playing a blinder here.

Or they are going to do what they say, and work towards a free trade agreement.

But EU membership precludes member states from unilaterally making trade agreements with non-EU states. That, we were told, was the whole point of Brexit. No, Britain, Eire and the EU must have agreed to something significant, and they're deciding on the presentation. But what?

I don't think the EU have agreed to anything. Ireland would like a solution - why would they not? However, Ireland is also a convenient stick for EU negotiators.

Going on what Varadkar was saying this evening it sounds like UK wide SM+CU but let's not call it that.

I find it very unlikely that the the UK will still be in the Single Market after all is said and done.

It's too early to sign up for the Single Market, I agree. We'll only go for the Single Market if and when the hopelessness of the alternatives are brought home to us. What Varadkar wants isn't necessarily what will happen.

But it could

I think we will end up in the Single Market by elimination, but it could be a rocky road to get there. I don't see Canada/FTA working. The outcome is uncertain, it takes too long, we would have to pass through more than one cliff edge or spend time in WTO purgatory. All the time business will be moving away from the UK to the EU. And any eventual agreement is guaranteed to be very mediocre. No deal isn't a viable option - it doesn't mean we won't go there however. We can't do without a system of international agreements, which in practice will be dominated by the EU. WTO is chaos.We rejected membership of the EU.

Which leaves the Single Market/Norway as the only remaining option. But it is not a good or comfortable option. Rule taking doesn't suit us. We're not Norwegian.

What's wrong with a FTA?

Recidivist

Richard_Tyndall said:

Recidivist said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

On the contrary. Nothing is more certain than that we will rejoin. Talk to some young people.

LOL. Keep dreaming. Its just like all those claims we have heard down the year about how the Tories are finished because all the old people are dying. Young people become middle aged people and then old people and as they do they actually start to learn something and realise the world is not as they thought and, more importantly, nor should it be.

If you are relying upon the young to take you back into the EU then you are truly screwed.

But the EU isn't a left/right issue. I've certainly drifted a bit to the right as I've got older. But I've become steadily more pro-EU. The only argument for leaving that stands up is respecting the referendum vote. But that becomes weaker over time. We are rejoining.

John_M

Ireland is going to miss the UK. I reckon that the CCCTB will be moved up the agenda, as will an EZ harmonized corporate tax rate. Both are perfectly reasonable and sensible measures, but both will whittle away the Irish USP.

another_richard

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

Recidivist said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

On the contrary. Nothing is more certain than that we will rejoin. Talk to some young people.

The young people of 1975 probably voted 75% to remain in the 'common market'.

How did those same people vote in 2016 ?

You're wrong. Young people were the most Eurosceptic in 1975.

The pattern of voting across age groups showed that support for staying in the EEC was actually higher amongst older age groups: 80 per cent of those aged 65 and older voted in favour of membership, compared to 73 per cent and 72 per cent, respectively, of those aged 45-64 and 30-44; it was lowest at 62 per cent of those aged 18-29.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/

I'm surprised by that.

Still it does show the huge shift in that generation since then.

williamglenn

Recidivist said:

We are rejoining.

One of the potential tipping points is if prominent Leavers start to realise this is the case. You can see it in some of Digby Jones desperate statements over the last 24 hours. They might then see the attraction in revoking Article 50 in order to keep our current opt-outs.

another_richard

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/963167895210602498

It really might not survive that.

Or to put it another way Oxfam workers offered money from British taxpayers for sex.

I would be sad to see the end of Oxfam - their second hand bookshops are great.

And allegations of sexual abuse in its UK shops

Really ?

The staff in the bookshops always seem studenty to me.

AndyJS

When's the next Ipsos/MORI due out?

another_richard

If this is what Italy is like at this stage of the economic cycle then what happens when the next recession arrives ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-43007377/2500-young-italians-compete-for-one-job

FF43

RobD said:

FF43 said:

I think we will end up in the Single Market by elimination, but it could be a rocky road to get there. I don't see Canada/FTA working. The outcome is uncertain, it takes too long, we would have to pass through more than one cliff edge or spend time in WTO purgatory. All the time business will be moving away from the UK to the EU. And any eventual agreement is guaranteed to be very mediocre. No deal isn't a viable option - it doesn't mean we won't go there however. We can't do without a system of international agreements, which in practice will be dominated by the EU. WTO is chaos.We rejected membership of the EU.

Which leaves the Single Market/Norway as the only remaining option. But it is not a good or comfortable option. Rule taking doesn't suit us. We're not Norwegian.

What's wrong with a FTA?

An FTA is a contract. If it's not in the document you don't get it. EU negotiators will aim to give us as little as possible for as high a price as is possible. That's their job. They are good at it and they are in a stronger position than us. The Single Market and The EU itself are systems of rules. We don't get any say over those rules with the SM, but in both those cases we are protected by the rules, as they apply to everyone in the system.

Edit. The particular problem with an FTA for us is time. You would normally stuck with the status quo until you are ready to move. We can't do that because the status quo is disappearing.

Big_G_NorthWales

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/963167895210602498

It really might not survive that.

Or to put it another way Oxfam workers offered money from British taxpayers for sex.

I would be sad to see the end of Oxfam - their second hand bookshops are great.

And allegations of sexual abuse in its UK shops

Really ?

The staff in the bookshops always seem studenty to me.

Daily Mail front page

Abuse rife in Oxfam shops

Big_G_NorthWales

another_richard said:

If this is what Italy is like at this stage of the economic cycle then what happens when the next recession arrives ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-43007377/2500-young-italians-compete-for-one-job

That was an unbelievable story and the job only lasts six months

another_richard

Recidivist said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Recidivist said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

On the contrary. Nothing is more certain than that we will rejoin. Talk to some young people.

LOL. Keep dreaming. Its just like all those claims we have heard down the year about how the Tories are finished because all the old people are dying. Young people become middle aged people and then old people and as they do they actually start to learn something and realise the world is not as they thought and, more importantly, nor should it be.

If you are relying upon the young to take you back into the EU then you are truly screwed.

But the EU isn't a left/right issue. I've certainly drifted a bit to the right as I've got older. But I've become steadily more pro-EU. The only argument for leaving that stands up is respecting the referendum vote. But that becomes weaker over time. We are rejoining.

You might have become steadily more pro-EU but the country has been going the other way.

A generation ago nobody was talking about leaving the EU, the issue then was whether and when the UK should join the Euro.

Richard_Tyndall

Recidivist said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Recidivist said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Finishing the list

Mar 2019/Dec 2018 we leave the EU
Dec 2021 we formally end our transition
1st Jan 2022 we have a new trade arrangement
1st May 2022 Centrist party wins GE
1st Jul 2022 we run a rejoin referendum.
1st Jan 2023 negotiations start
Jan 2026 we re-enter the EU

And after 10 gloriously wasted years the whole merry-go-round starts again.

Once we leave we will never go back. That is the nearest thing to a certainty you will ever get in politics.

On the contrary. Nothing is more certain than that we will rejoin. Talk to some young people.

LOL. Keep dreaming. Its just like all those claims we have heard down the year about how the Tories are finished because all the old people are dying. Young people become middle aged people and then old people and as they do they actually start to learn something and realise the world is not as they thought and, more importantly, nor should it be.

If you are relying upon the young to take you back into the EU then you are truly screwed.

But the EU isn't a left/right issue. I've certainly drifted a bit to the right as I've got older. But I've become steadily more pro-EU. The only argument for leaving that stands up is respecting the referendum vote. But that becomes weaker over time. We are rejoining.

Yeah sure

Out will be the status quo
Leaving will not have been the end of the world that was predicted - people will still be able to travel around Europe and we will not be an isolated little island
The EU will continue to integrate and in fact will do so more rapidly.
Rejoining will mean paying far more than we do now and accepting things like the single currency.

All of these things will militate against rejoining. When we are out that will be it. For good. If you want to stay in the EU the only way for you to do so will be to move there.

Cyclefree

oxfordsimon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

oxfordsimon said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/963167895210602498

It really might not survive that.

Certainly doesn't look like one resignation is enough.

The brand is under serious threat if any of these allegations are proven and many more resignations will be demanded and in some cases the police need to be involved

Today's actions have certainly not been enough. And tonight's new revelations are particularly damaging.

Why would anyone now donate to Oxfam?

It is very very common in investigations to find that before recruitment or at an early stage during their employment there were warning signs about the individual. And, even more commonly, that these warning signs were ignored.

If you recruit people and ignore such warning signs, however minor, don’t be surprised if this comes back to bite you later.

Oxfam are also giving a master class in how to make a bad situation very very much worse.

Its CEO was stating on the news tonight that in 2011 it was not contrary to its Code of Conduct for its staff to use prostitutes, seemingly unaware of how such a statement came across. The question he should have asked himself when these allegations first surfaced and he was being advised that there was no breach of the Code of Conduct was: “ Would I be happy for this story and my response to be published on the front page of the newspaper?”

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/helentevans/status/963138090507399168

Recidivist

williamglenn said:

Recidivist said:

We are rejoining.

One of the potential tipping points is if prominent Leavers start to realise this is the case. You can see it in some of Digby Jones desperate statements over the last 24 hours. They might then see the attraction in revoking Article 50 in order to keep our current opt-outs.

Thanks for drawing him to my attention. His Twitter feed is really something right now. Can you imagine any other issue where the side that loses the vote continues to attack their opponents like this. It's almost as if they need an enemy and Brexit is taking it away.