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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Andy Murray’s SPOTY victory could help the IndyRef NO campa

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  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    JackW said:

    malcolmg said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Didn't watch it, as it clashed with Homeland, but I'm glad Murray won. 55% is a crushing margin of victory too.

    Probably marginally helps No, not so much as a positive impact as the avoidance of a negative one had he lost.

    MD, what bollocks, pray tell how winning a poxy BBC title helps NO.
    Because it winds the YES camp up no end ?!?

    I hardly think so , it may amuse unionist cretins but is merely another pointless jingoistic load of bollocks.
  • Options


    So you'd be perfectly happy for Miliband to interfere with your business if he felt it was too profitable, or your employees weren't reaping the same rewards as you?

    Probably not the best example - if I understand Southam's business right the whole thing is built on IP, which is a set of government-invented statutory monopolies, which allow you to shut out competitors to achieve an alleged ultimate gain for consumers. If it turns out (as it may well do) that the system is working well for him and his rights-owning customers but badly for consumers and people innovating to make useful stuff for them, then the government should certainly be stepping in to redress the balance, probably by changing the terms of those monopolies.

    On Ed Miliband's latest thing, I suspect it'll turn out to be a load of cynical populist political grandstanding, but let's see what he actually says.

    We report on IP, but we also rely on it. And, yes, governments change the rules all the time: on data protection, for example. The way we are told to handle data in different parts of the world has a fundamental affect on our business and we have to accept that and get on with it.

    As for populist housing policies - it's hard to think that a promise to build more houses is really going to get many hearts a fluttering. It's not like being able to own your own council house or seeing your tax cut. There's no immediate result for voters to latch on to.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited December 2013

    antifrank said:

    To make Richard Nabavi's point about the financial illiteracy of Ed Miliband on housebuilders, here are the last five years' profits and losses of those companies:

    http://www.barrattdevelopments.co.uk/barratt/en/investor/performance/five
    http://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/media/pdf/8/g/Annual-Report-2013.pdf#page=117
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=PSN
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=TW.

    Three out of four of these have made more losses than profits in the last five years.

    Profit and loss at big businesses (which our big house builders are) over a five year period are not necessarily indicators of anything much. Losses are sometimes rather nice if they help you from a tax perspective' They may also indicate investments - such as land purchases in the case of builders - that will reap major gains further down the line. If you buy a lot of land when the market is flat, then start building when it picks up, you will show losses for a while. But then you will show profits. The issue is whether what works for house builders works for the country. There has to be an alignment of needs. I don't know if Ed has the solution, but he is absolutely right to be asking the question.



    So you'd be perfectly happy for Miliband to interfere with your business if he felt it was too profitable, or your employees weren't reaping the same rewards as you?

    Nope. But I am not involved in house building. I do not think it is unreasonable to do all that is possible to ensure that the country's housing needs are met. The land is a national resource and should be managed as such. Whether Miliband's approach is right or not, I don't know. A couple of sentences out of a big speech are not going to tell us very much.

    One could argue that IP is a national resource and should be managed as such, for the benefit of society as a whole.

    But you wouldn't like that.
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    SandraMSandraM Posts: 206
    Jack W. Is Lord Longford another answer? Harold Pinter did the screen play for the film version of "French Lieutenant's Woman" and Lady Antonia was Lord Longford's daughter. Also, didn't Longford become known as Lord Porn after a fact-finding trip to Copenhagen?
  • Options

    antifrank said:

    To make Richard Nabavi's point about the financial illiteracy of Ed Miliband on housebuilders, here are the last five years' profits and losses of those companies:

    http://www.barrattdevelopments.co.uk/barratt/en/investor/performance/five
    http://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/media/pdf/8/g/Annual-Report-2013.pdf#page=117
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=PSN
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=TW.

    Three out of four of these have made more losses than profits in the last five years.

    Profit and loss at big businesses (which our big house builders are) over a five year period are not necessarily indicators of anything much. Losses are sometimes rather nice if they help you from a tax perspective' They may also indicate investments - such as land purchases in the case of builders - that will reap major gains further down the line. If you buy a lot of land when the market is flat, then start building when it picks up, you will show losses for a while. But then you will show profits. The issue is whether what works for house builders works for the country. There has to be an alignment of needs. I don't know if Ed has the solution, but he is absolutely right to be asking the question.



    So you'd be perfectly happy for Miliband to interfere with your business if he felt it was too profitable, or your employees weren't reaping the same rewards as you?

    Nope. But I am not involved in house building. I do not think it is unreasonable to do all that is possible to ensure that the country's housing needs are met. The land is a national resource and should be managed as such. Whether Miliband's approach is right or not, I don't know. A couple of sentences out of a big speech are not going to tell us very much.

    One could argue that IP is a national resource and should be managed as such.

    But you wouldn't like that.

    Land is tangible and homes can be built on it.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920

    antifrank said:

    To make Richard Nabavi's point about the financial illiteracy of Ed Miliband on housebuilders, here are the last five years' profits and losses of those companies:

    http://www.barrattdevelopments.co.uk/barratt/en/investor/performance/five
    http://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/media/pdf/8/g/Annual-Report-2013.pdf#page=117
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=PSN
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=TW.

    Three out of four of these have made more losses than profits in the last five years.

    Profit and loss at big businesses (which our big house builders are) over a five year period are not necessarily indicators of anything much. Losses are sometimes rather nice if they help you from a tax perspective' They may also indicate investments - such as land purchases in the case of builders - that will reap major gains further down the line. If you buy a lot of land when the market is flat, then start building when it picks up, you will show losses for a while. But then you will show profits. The issue is whether what works for house builders works for the country. There has to be an alignment of needs. I don't know if Ed has the solution, but he is absolutely right to be asking the question.



    So you'd be perfectly happy for Miliband to interfere with your business if he felt it was too profitable, or your employees weren't reaping the same rewards as you?

    Nope. But I am not involved in house building. I do not think it is unreasonable to do all that is possible to ensure that the country's housing needs are met. The land is a national resource and should be managed as such. Whether Miliband's approach is right or not, I don't know. A couple of sentences out of a big speech are not going to tell us very much.

    One could argue that IP is a national resource and should be managed as such, for the benefit of society as a whole.

    But you wouldn't like that.
    I think the main point SO is making is that his business is a publication that reports on intellectual property issues. Therefore, while it is about IP, he (or it) is not clipping a coupon on patents, nor is it engaging in patent law suits.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''What we need is a market that incentivises them to do it at the rate it is needed.''

    Quite how wailing about housebuilders' profits and threatening to force them to sell their land would achieve that is utterly beyond me.

    Ed reserves the right to savagely punish private industry and also rely on it to provide light, heat, transport and homes.

    What a thoroughgoing idiot he is.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited December 2013

    antifrank said:

    To make Richard Nabavi's point about the financial illiteracy of Ed Miliband on housebuilders, here are the last five years' profits and losses of those companies:

    http://www.barrattdevelopments.co.uk/barratt/en/investor/performance/five
    http://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/media/pdf/8/g/Annual-Report-2013.pdf#page=117
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=PSN
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=TW.

    Three out of four of these have made more losses than profits in the last five years.

    Profit and loss at big businesses (which our big house builders are) over a five year period are not necessarily indicators of anything much. Losses are sometimes rather nice if they help you from a tax perspective' They may also indicate investments - such as land purchases in the case of builders - that will reap major gains further down the line. If you buy a lot of land when the market is flat, then start building when it picks up, you will show losses for a while. But then you will show profits. The issue is whether what works for house builders works for the country. There has to be an alignment of needs. I don't know if Ed has the solution, but he is absolutely right to be asking the question.



    So you'd be perfectly happy for Miliband to interfere with your business if he felt it was too profitable, or your employees weren't reaping the same rewards as you?

    Nope. But I am not involved in house building. I do not think it is unreasonable to do all that is possible to ensure that the country's housing needs are met. The land is a national resource and should be managed as such. Whether Miliband's approach is right or not, I don't know. A couple of sentences out of a big speech are not going to tell us very much.

    One could argue that IP is a national resource and should be managed as such.

    But you wouldn't like that.

    Land is tangible and homes can be built on it.

    If someone has been educated, nurtured and nursed here at our collective expense, and subsequently developed a profitable and lucrative idea do we not all deserve a cut of their riches?

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920

    antifrank said:

    To make Richard Nabavi's point about the financial illiteracy of Ed Miliband on housebuilders, here are the last five years' profits and losses of those companies:

    http://www.barrattdevelopments.co.uk/barratt/en/investor/performance/five
    http://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/media/pdf/8/g/Annual-Report-2013.pdf#page=117
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=PSN
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=TW.

    Three out of four of these have made more losses than profits in the last five years.

    Profit and loss at big businesses (which our big house builders are) over a five year period are not necessarily indicators of anything much. Losses are sometimes rather nice if they help you from a tax perspective' They may also indicate investments - such as land purchases in the case of builders - that will reap major gains further down the line. If you buy a lot of land when the market is flat, then start building when it picks up, you will show losses for a while. But then you will show profits. The issue is whether what works for house builders works for the country. There has to be an alignment of needs. I don't know if Ed has the solution, but he is absolutely right to be asking the question.



    So you'd be perfectly happy for Miliband to interfere with your business if he felt it was too profitable, or your employees weren't reaping the same rewards as you?

    Nope. But I am not involved in house building. I do not think it is unreasonable to do all that is possible to ensure that the country's housing needs are met. The land is a national resource and should be managed as such. Whether Miliband's approach is right or not, I don't know. A couple of sentences out of a big speech are not going to tell us very much.

    One could argue that IP is a national resource and should be managed as such.

    But you wouldn't like that.

    Land is tangible and homes can be built on it.

    If someone has been educated, nurtured and nursed here at our collective expense, and subsequently developed a profitable and lucrative idea do we not all deserve a cut?

    My understanding is that that is exactly how corporation tax and income tax work...
  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    rcs1000 said:

    antifrank said:

    To make Richard Nabavi's point about the financial illiteracy of Ed Miliband on housebuilders, here are the last five years' profits and losses of those companies:

    http://www.barrattdevelopments.co.uk/barratt/en/investor/performance/five
    http://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/media/pdf/8/g/Annual-Report-2013.pdf#page=117
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=PSN
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=TW.

    Three out of four of these have made more losses than profits in the last five years.

    Profit and loss at big businesses (which our big house builders are) over a five year period are not necessarily indicators of anything much. Losses are sometimes rather nice if they help you from a tax perspective' They may also indicate investments - such as land purchases in the case of builders - that will reap major gains further down the line. If you buy a lot of land when the market is flat, then start building when it picks up, you will show losses for a while. But then you will show profits. The issue is whether what works for house builders works for the country. There has to be an alignment of needs. I don't know if Ed has the solution, but he is absolutely right to be asking the question.



    So you'd be perfectly happy for Miliband to interfere with your business if he felt it was too profitable, or your employees weren't reaping the same rewards as you?

    Nope. But I am not involved in house building. I do not think it is unreasonable to do all that is possible to ensure that the country's housing needs are met. The land is a national resource and should be managed as such. Whether Miliband's approach is right or not, I don't know. A couple of sentences out of a big speech are not going to tell us very much.

    One could argue that IP is a national resource and should be managed as such.

    But you wouldn't like that.

    Land is tangible and homes can be built on it.

    If someone has been educated, nurtured and nursed here at our collective expense, and subsequently developed a profitable and lucrative idea do we not all deserve a cut?

    My understanding is that that is exactly how corporation tax and income tax work...
    Indeed. So presumably all the 'greedy' house builders will be paying a lot extra to the Treasury?

    Miilband really is a tool.

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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    taffys said:

    ''What we need is a market that incentivises them to do it at the rate it is needed.''

    Quite how wailing about housebuilders' profits and threatening to force them to sell their land would achieve that is utterly beyond me.

    Ed reserves the right to savagely punish private industry and also rely on it to provide light, heat, transport and homes.

    What a thoroughgoing idiot he is.

    I think he expects them to build and sell at cost.

    Incidentally, how does building all these new homes fit in with Miliband's tear inducing green credentials? Or have those now been tossed aside?

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    taffys said:

    ''What we need is a market that incentivises them to do it at the rate it is needed.''

    Quite how wailing about housebuilders' profits and threatening to force them to sell their land would achieve that is utterly beyond me.

    Ed reserves the right to savagely punish private industry and also rely on it to provide light, heat, transport and homes.

    What a thoroughgoing idiot he is.

    Ed is absolutely right to identify this as a major issue. It could well be that his solution is completely wrong - we don't know until we see it. But if it begins a proper conversation and, as with energy, leads the government to find its own solutions, then that is all to the good. We have a housing crisis in this country. It needs solving.

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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    malcolmg said:

    JackW said:

    malcolmg said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Didn't watch it, as it clashed with Homeland, but I'm glad Murray won. 55% is a crushing margin of victory too.

    Probably marginally helps No, not so much as a positive impact as the avoidance of a negative one had he lost.

    MD, what bollocks, pray tell how winning a poxy BBC title helps NO.
    Because it winds the YES camp up no end ?!?

    I hardly think so , it may amuse unionist cretins but is merely another pointless jingoistic load of bollocks.
    Lol - great to know it doesn't wind you up..not one bit:)))))
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    'We have a housing crisis in this country. It needs solving.'

    Indeed. Now we're paying the price for 13 years of mismanagement and underinvestment by the previous administration. In hindsight, importing x million new residents looks like a pretty dumb idea, since there clearly weren't enough homes and resources for them.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited December 2013
    SandraM said:

    Jack W. Is Lord Longford another answer? Harold Pinter did the screen play for the film version of "French Lieutenant's Woman" and Lady Antonia was Lord Longford's daughter. Also, didn't Longford become known as Lord Porn after a fact-finding trip to Copenhagen?

    Well done. the Earl of Longford is person b. Harold Pinter was Antonia Fraser's husband. The "Sun" dubbed Longford Lord Porn.

    So just the historic post that links :

    Baroness Jay, Lord Longford and John Clynes

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    malcolmg said:

    JackW said:

    malcolmg said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Didn't watch it, as it clashed with Homeland, but I'm glad Murray won. 55% is a crushing margin of victory too.

    Probably marginally helps No, not so much as a positive impact as the avoidance of a negative one had he lost.

    MD, what bollocks, pray tell how winning a poxy BBC title helps NO.
    Because it winds the YES camp up no end ?!?

    I hardly think so , it may amuse unionist cretins but is merely another pointless jingoistic load of bollocks.
    I rest my case m'lud.

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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    taffys said:

    ''What we need is a market that incentivises them to do it at the rate it is needed.''

    Quite how wailing about housebuilders' profits and threatening to force them to sell their land would achieve that is utterly beyond me.

    Ed reserves the right to savagely punish private industry and also rely on it to provide light, heat, transport and homes.

    What a thoroughgoing idiot he is.

    Ed is absolutely right to identify this as a major issue.


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour and why there was a huge fuss the other year by Shire Tories, the Telegraph and Simon Jenkin about the Coalition forcing through changes in planning permission to make it easier to build in the countryside.
  • Options

    'We have a housing crisis in this country. It needs solving.'

    Indeed. Now we're paying the price for 13 years of mismanagement and underinvestment by the previous administration. In hindsight, importing x million new residents looks like a pretty dumb idea, since there clearly weren't enough homes and resources for them.

    No, we're paying the price for a much longer period of mismanagement than 13 years. Labour could and should have done more, but they didn't. The government before that did not do enough either. And despite the recent upswing in building, it's not happening now. Maybe it's the system itself that is at fault.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,902
    MaxPB said:

    Massive over reaction from the Spurs board. AVB needed more time yo get the squad working. Question now is who the hell do we get in to replace him. There isn't really a top tier manager out there right now. Unless Harry and Levy have kissed and made up...

    Fabio Capello the favourite apparently....
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    edited December 2013
    JonathanD said:

    taffys said:

    ''What we need is a market that incentivises them to do it at the rate it is needed.''

    Quite how wailing about housebuilders' profits and threatening to force them to sell their land would achieve that is utterly beyond me.

    Ed reserves the right to savagely punish private industry and also rely on it to provide light, heat, transport and homes.

    What a thoroughgoing idiot he is.

    Ed is absolutely right to identify this as a major issue.


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour and why there was a huge fuss the other year by Shire Tories, the Telegraph and Simon Jenkin about the Coalition forcing through changes in planning permission to make it easier to build in the countryside.

    So now there can be a proper conversation. Labour can explain why it does not agree with the government approach; the government can explain why Labour is wrong and Ed's approach is flawed. This is what we want, isn't it?

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    Spurs draw a team managed by another ex-manager....
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,125
    It will be quite a long time since we have had a major party going into an election so obviously hostile to private enterprise. We are really back in the 80s with that one. Will it make a difference? Blair obviously thought it did.

    Hopefully, Labour will suffer for this stupidity and after the election someone like Chukka can get them back on the right path again. The idea of the current leadership of the Labour party having control of our economy and foreign affairs is getting positively scary.

    This was from a recent piece on this:

    "One chairman of a FTSE 100 company who has been given the full Milibeam treatment left the meeting feeling a little nonplussed. “I could see he was making an intellectual argument about needing to work with business, but I wasn’t convinced his heart was in it,” he said. The fact that the chairman in question has energy interests maybe explains a lot.

    Another chief executive of a FTSE 100 company left a similar “getting to know you” session describing it as one of the most awkward he had ever had the displeasure of attending. Mr Miliband appeared under-briefed and only seemed to have a passing understanding of and interest in the business the CEO led."

    http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/miliband-wooing-business-good-luck-210003562.html

    People don't like big business in a populist sense but they do like the jobs and services that come with it. Ed seems to me to be painting himself in something of a corner here.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,890
    taffys said:

    ''What we need is a market that incentivises them to do it at the rate it is needed.''

    Quite how wailing about housebuilders' profits and threatening to force them to sell their land would achieve that is utterly beyond me.

    Ed reserves the right to savagely punish private industry and also rely on it to provide light, heat, transport and homes.

    What a thoroughgoing idiot he is.

    Yes, and it's sad to see so many intelligent people on here fall for it time and time again.

    Miliband's energy madness is the worst, as it shows either a distinct lack of knowledge about the industry, or a lack of care. Given he was previously at DECC, this is terrible either way.

    But the housing one is also bad. And given Labour's hideous track record on housing after 1997, we should not believe him - or his party - one jot. Pathfinder, anyone?

    No party is willing to tackle the real problems in the housing market, as any solution would cost votes. Instead the only solution is to keep on building ...

    (Oh, and I again state my mantra: we need to build communities, not houses)
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited December 2013

    taffys said:

    ''What we need is a market that incentivises them to do it at the rate it is needed.''

    Quite how wailing about housebuilders' profits and threatening to force them to sell their land would achieve that is utterly beyond me.

    Ed reserves the right to savagely punish private industry and also rely on it to provide light, heat, transport and homes.

    What a thoroughgoing idiot he is.

    Ed is absolutely right to identify this as a major issue. It could well be that his solution is completely wrong - we don't know until we see it. But if it begins a proper conversation and, as with energy, leads the government to find its own solutions, then that is all to the good. We have a housing crisis in this country. It needs solving.

    The long term average rate of private sector house building needed to meet forecast demand is around 240,000 dwellings per year.

    The current rate of private sector building is 120,000-150,000 and is likely to be around 160,000 -200,000 next year.

    The private sector is increasing production to meet the uplift in demand and house prices which follow from general economic recovery and specific government stimulus. The construction industry has the financial and land resources needed to meet and exceed the 240,000 dwellings per year requirement without further fiscal stimulus. An easing of planning constraints and delays should be the government's only major contribution.

    Ed Miliband has promised to build a minimum of 200,000 dwellings per year over a five year term if elected in 2015. This promise appears to be co-incidental with the likely output of the private sector construction industry and would require no material change in government policy to achieve.

    The problem sector is social housing where a sustainable business model needs to be developed to enable large scale construction. Virtually no local council building has taken place since the early 1990s and Housing Association builds are not recovering at the same rate as private sector construction. The main reason for this is that social housing is not self financing and requires substantial subsidies from the taxpayer both on a current and investment basis.

    If Ed was serious about increasing house building he and his team would be working on ways to reform the social housing sector. Increasing rent levels and benefits to market rates; reforming tenancy agreements to increase liquidity of the existing housing stock; collecting arrears by deduction from beneftis at source; allowing housing associations to make reasonable surpluses on rental income which can then be used to service loans for expanding their stock; encouraging the sale to tenants of existing stocks to free funds up for reinvestment in construction etc etc.

    Looking at this To Do list gives you some idea why it is much easier for Ed to grandstand on the profits of private sector housebuilders rather than develop policies which would require him and his party to take "hard decisions".
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    JonathanD said:

    taffys said:

    ''What we need is a market that incentivises them to do it at the rate it is needed.''

    Quite how wailing about housebuilders' profits and threatening to force them to sell their land would achieve that is utterly beyond me.

    Ed reserves the right to savagely punish private industry and also rely on it to provide light, heat, transport and homes.

    What a thoroughgoing idiot he is.

    Ed is absolutely right to identify this as a major issue.


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour and why there was a huge fuss the other year by Shire Tories, the Telegraph and Simon Jenkin about the Coalition forcing through changes in planning permission to make it easier to build in the countryside.

    So now there can be a proper conversation. Labour can explain why it does not agree with the government approach; the government can explain why Labour is wrong and Ed's approach is flawed. This is what we want, isn't it?


    Indeed, I was just amused that the Tories have been talking about this for several years and only now has Ed decided he wants to join the conversation - when the decline has stopped and housebuilding is increasing. His lack of awareness doesn't say much for the prospect of his new ideas.
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    "It will be quite a long time since we have had a major party going into an election so obviously hostile to private enterprise."

    Asking whether the current way in which big businesses conduct themselves is not the same as being hostile to private enterprise. Far from it, in fact.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited December 2013
    DavidL said:

    It will be quite a long time since we have had a major party going into an election so obviously hostile to private enterprise. We are really back in the 80s with that one. Will it make a difference? Blair obviously thought it did.

    Hopefully, Labour will suffer for this stupidity and after the election someone like Chukka can get them back on the right path again. The idea of the current leadership of the Labour party having control of our economy and foreign affairs is getting positively scary.

    This was from a recent piece on this:

    "One chairman of a FTSE 100 company who has been given the full Milibeam treatment left the meeting feeling a little nonplussed. “I could see he was making an intellectual argument about needing to work with business, but I wasn’t convinced his heart was in it,” he said. The fact that the chairman in question has energy interests maybe explains a lot.

    Another chief executive of a FTSE 100 company left a similar “getting to know you” session describing it as one of the most awkward he had ever had the displeasure of attending. Mr Miliband appeared under-briefed and only seemed to have a passing understanding of and interest in the business the CEO led."

    http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/miliband-wooing-business-good-luck-210003562.html

    People don't like big business in a populist sense but they do like the jobs and services that come with it. Ed seems to me to be painting himself in something of a corner here.

    According to the article, Miliband's right hand man in this great 'reach out' is a politics tutor from Magdalen College.

    'It is difficult to see how Mr Miliband will succeed in his endeavours. Lord Wood is an academic and policy expert who does not have the advantage of having actually run a business for a living or even worked in the private sector. He was special adviser to Gordon Brown, not the most attractive of CV entries for many in the business world.'

    There's not much hope.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,320
    JonathanD said:




    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour and why there was a huge fuss the other year by Shire Tories, the Telegraph and Simon Jenkin about the Coalition forcing through changes in planning permission to make it easier to build in the countryside.

    It's not stopped local Tories attacking Labour councils for building in the countryside, and claiming that they are the true guardians of the fields - they are doing that in every Greater Nottingham borough except Tory-controlled Rushcliffe, where the council proposed to build fewer homes and was shot down by the CDLG's inspector.

    The dichotomy between national and local message is a contributory factor to general disillusion with politicians of all kinds.

  • Options

    taffys said:

    ''What we need is a market that incentivises them to do it at the rate it is needed.''

    Quite how wailing about housebuilders' profits and threatening to force them to sell their land would achieve that is utterly beyond me.

    Ed reserves the right to savagely punish private industry and also rely on it to provide light, heat, transport and homes.

    What a thoroughgoing idiot he is.

    Ed is absolutely right to identify this as a major issue. It could well be that his solution is completely wrong - we don't know until we see it. But if it begins a proper conversation and, as with energy, leads the government to find its own solutions, then that is all to the good. We have a housing crisis in this country. It needs solving.

    Southam Observer is absolutely right. The housing crisis does need to be addressed. There is a real risk here that the Coalition parties appear to be the dogged defenders of the unsatisfactory status quo, as the Conservatives were in relation to energy prices for some time (and to an extent, still are). I mentioned at the time of Miliband's conference speech that his proposal compulsarily to acquire unused land was fraught with legal difficulty, and nothing he is saying today inspires confidence that he understands, or even cares about, the complex interaction between land acquisition, planning, development, the debt markets and land/housing prices. Moreover, his casual reference to the short-term profits of the housebuilders indicates he doesn't understand, or care about, the drivers of profitability or the impact of corporate financial health on the broader economic health of the UK.

    However, as with his move on energy prices, there is some smart politics underneath. If the Tories don't respond, he can paint them as being uncaring defenders of corporate super-profits, complacently benefiting from rising house prices while ordinary people are increasingly priced out of the market. If the Tories do respond, he has them dancing to his tune on the cost of living again and potentially he will also drive a further wedge between the party and the Telegraph-conservatives, who love green spaces and are suspicious of state intervention.

    My sense is that this issue has less potency than energy prices for now, but it will increase in salience as house prices rise. The Conservatives need to get their thinking caps on.
  • Options
    AveryLP said:

    taffys said:

    ''What we need is a market that incentivises them to do it at the rate it is needed.''

    Quite how wailing about housebuilders' profits and threatening to force them to sell their land would achieve that is utterly beyond me.

    Ed reserves the right to savagely punish private industry and also rely on it to provide light, heat, transport and homes.

    What a thoroughgoing idiot he is.

    Ed is absolutely right to identify this as a major issue. It could well be that his solution is completely wrong - we don't know until we see it. But if it begins a proper conversation and, as with energy, leads the government to find its own solutions, then that is all to the good. We have a housing crisis in this country. It needs solving.

    The long term average rate of private sector house building needed to meet forecast demand is around 240,000 dwellings per year.

    The current rate of private sector building is 120,000-150,000 and is likely to be around 160,000 -200,000 next year.

    The private sector is increasing production to meet the uplift in demand and house prices which follow from general economic recovery and specific government stimulus. The construction industry has the financial and land resources needed to meet and exceed the 240,000 dwellings per year requirement without further fiscal stimulus. An easing of planning constraints and delays should be the government's only major contribution.

    Ed Miliband has promised to build a minimum of 200,000 dwellings per year over a five year term if elected in 2015. This promise appears to be co-incidental with the likely output of the private sector construction industry and would require no material change in government policy to achieve.

    The problem sector is social housing where a sustainable business model needs to be developed to enable large scale construction. Virtually no local council building has taken place since the early 1990s and Housing Association builds are not recovering at the same rate as private sector construction. The main reason for this is that social housing is not self financing and requires substantial subsidies from the taxpayer both on a current and investment basis.

    If Ed was serious about increasing house building he and his team would be working on ways to reform the social housing sector. Increasing rent levels and benefits to market rates; reforming tenancy agreements to increase liquidity of the existing housing stock; collecting arrears by deduction from beneftis at source; allowing housing associations to make reasonable surpluses on rental income which can then be used to service loans for expanding their stock; encouraging the sale to tenants of existing stocks to free funds up for reinvestment in construction etc etc.

    Looking at this To Do list gives you some idea why it is much easier for Ed to grandstand on the profits of private sector housebuilders rather than develop policies which would require him and his party to take "hard decisions".

    Is making rentals more expensive at a time when incomes are flat-lining really the way to solve the housing crisis?

  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    JonathanD said:




    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour and why there was a huge fuss the other year by Shire Tories, the Telegraph and Simon Jenkin about the Coalition forcing through changes in planning permission to make it easier to build in the countryside.

    It's not stopped local Tories attacking Labour councils for building in the countryside, and claiming that they are the true guardians of the fields - they are doing that in every Greater Nottingham borough except Tory-controlled Rushcliffe, where the council proposed to build fewer homes and was shot down by the CDLG's inspector.

    The dichotomy between national and local message is a contributory factor to general disillusion with politicians of all kinds.


    Yes, go to any part of the country and you can see opposition politicians attacking house building plans. I'd imagine the political constraints on house building are probably stronger than any profiteering by house building companies and is probably what should be looked at first.

    "OPPOSITION councillors are seething after an attempt to prevent greenbelt land being released to developers for thousands of new homes was narrowly defeated.

    Labour branded the plans ‘unnecessary and over-ambitious’ and called a special council meeting seeking approval for alternative proposals that would see 3,150 fewer homes built and the greenbelt kept intact."

    http://www.chesterfirst.co.uk/news/126631/labour-fury-at-failure-to-protect-chester-s-greenbelt.aspx


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    MaxPB said:

    antifrank said:

    To make Richard Nabavi's point about the financial illiteracy of Ed Miliband on housebuilders, here are the last five years' profits and losses of those companies:

    http://www.barrattdevelopments.co.uk/barratt/en/investor/performance/five
    http://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/media/pdf/8/g/Annual-Report-2013.pdf#page=117
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=PSN
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=TW.

    Three out of four of these have made more losses than profits in the last five years.

    Profit and loss at big businesses (which our big house builders are) over a five year period are not necessarily indicators of anything much. Losses are sometimes rather nice if they help you from a tax perspective' They may also indicate investments - such as land purchases in the case of builders - that will reap major gains further down the line. If you buy a lot of land when the market is flat, then start building when it picks up, you will show losses for a while. But then you will show profits. The issue is whether what works for house builders works for the country. There has to be an alignment of needs. I don't know if Ed has the solution, but he is absolutely right to be asking the question.



    Land investment wouldn't necessarily show up on a P&L as the asset would be taken on the balance sheet. That's how is works for us when we invest in plants, property and equipment related to the business.
    Land for a builder would work the same way as a long term contract. It would only show on the P+L as work undertaken on it is done, and the revenue/profit would be recognised over time.

    Unworked land held by the business would be shown in the same way as stock, it on the balance sheet, and only transferred to the P+L as the building work was undertaken.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,890

    "It will be quite a long time since we have had a major party going into an election so obviously hostile to private enterprise."

    Asking whether the current way in which big businesses conduct themselves is not the same as being hostile to private enterprise. Far from it, in fact.

    It would, if he was asking that question (or at least the question I think you were asking from your unfinished post) - i.e. asking whether the way big businesses conduct themselves is good.

    But he is not.

    He is rabble-rousing. He is not interested in answers; he does not care about what he will do when he gets into power - if he did, he would not produce such hideous 'solutions'.

    You have to address Labour's track record in these areas It hardly inspires confidence, does it?Take Ed's own words about increasing energy costs whilst he was at DECC.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,320
    JonathanD said:



    Yes, go to any part of the country and you can see opposition politicians attacking house building plans. I'd imagine the political constraints on house building are probably stronger than any profiteering by house building companies and is probably what should be looked at first.

    Something I've wondered about is the extent to which councils can link permission to restrictions on type of construction. The usual rule seems to be 25% must be "affordable", defined as something like "not much more than the average in the area for a two-bedroom property". That often isn't affordable in any usual sense, and some areas may have a big shortage of some other kids of home - bedsits or 3-bedroom houses or whatever. Is all this laid down in legislation, or could councils say "we want 15% to be bedsits, 32% to be 2-bedroom houses, 10% to be luxury villas" or the like (obviously after negotiation)?

  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    antifrank said:

    To make Richard Nabavi's point about the financial illiteracy of Ed Miliband on housebuilders, here are the last five years' profits and losses of those companies:

    http://www.barrattdevelopments.co.uk/barratt/en/investor/performance/five
    http://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/media/pdf/8/g/Annual-Report-2013.pdf#page=117
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=PSN
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=TW.

    Three out of four of these have made more losses than profits in the last five years.

    Profit and loss at big businesses (which our big house builders are) over a five year period are not necessarily indicators of anything much. Losses are sometimes rather nice if they help you from a tax perspective' They may also indicate investments - such as land purchases in the case of builders - that will reap major gains further down the line. If you buy a lot of land when the market is flat, then start building when it picks up, you will show losses for a while. But then you will show profits. The issue is whether what works for house builders works for the country. There has to be an alignment of needs. I don't know if Ed has the solution, but he is absolutely right to be asking the question.



    Land investment wouldn't necessarily show up on a P&L as the asset would be taken on the balance sheet. That's how is works for us when we invest in plants, property and equipment related to the business.
    Land for a builder would work the same way as a long term contract. It would only show on the P+L as work undertaken on it is done, and the revenue/profit would be recognised over time.

    Unworked land held by the business would be shown in the same way as stock, it on the balance sheet, and only transferred to the P+L as the building work was undertaken.
    That's assuming of course that a contract for sale is in place. Where the builder is just building houses for direct sale, the principle would be to account for the building as stock until the time it is sold...
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    taffys said:

    ''What we need is a market that incentivises them to do it at the rate it is needed.''

    Quite how wailing about housebuilders' profits and threatening to force them to sell their land would achieve that is utterly beyond me.

    Ed reserves the right to savagely punish private industry and also rely on it to provide light, heat, transport and homes.

    What a thoroughgoing idiot he is.

    Ed is absolutely right to identify this as a major issue. It could well be that his solution is completely wrong - we don't know until we see it. But if it begins a proper conversation and, as with energy, leads the government to find its own solutions, then that is all to the good. We have a housing crisis in this country. It needs solving.

    ...

    If Ed was serious about increasing house building he and his team would be working on ways to reform the social housing sector. Increasing rent levels and benefits to market rates; reforming tenancy agreements to increase liquidity of the existing housing stock; collecting arrears by deduction from beneftis at source; allowing housing associations to make reasonable surpluses on rental income which can then be used to service loans for expanding their stock; encouraging the sale to tenants of existing stocks to free funds up for reinvestment in construction etc etc.

    Looking at this To Do list gives you some idea why it is much easier for Ed to grandstand on the profits of private sector housebuilders rather than develop policies which would require him and his party to take "hard decisions".

    Is making rentals more expensive at a time when incomes are flat-lining really the way to solve the housing crisis?

    Yes, if rental levels are suppressed by regulatory or government intervention. The alternative is to cross subsidise the sector by means of additional government borrowing and current expenditure. So higher taxes and borrowing: not a recipe for successful fiscal management post recession.

    Remember too that rents tend to rise as asset prices fall and vice versa. In the social housing sector, the absence of a properly functioning market for property sales dampens this effect as it prevents the use of capital tied up in existing stock from being redeployed to building new stock for future demand. In turn, this increases the difficulty of financing the building of new stock and prevents supply rising to meet demand. For as long as this structure remains, rent levels in the social sector will not respond in the same way they do in the private sector. If you free the capital market up, rent levels will eventually fall, although I accept that there will need to be an interim upward correction before this will happen.
  • Options
    JonathanD said:


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour

    Out of interest, arguments here aside, do you really, seriously believe that sentence you wrote? Outside political pantomime land, house building took a dive all over the developed world because the banking system shat the bed, and it's picked up a bit as the economy picked itself up off the floor.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,586
    I'm surprised nobody has pointed out a major political aspect of the Commonwealth Games (apart from the fact that the Scots are paying 100% for it, it being booked under Labour as far as I recall in case anyone asks, versus having to pay their share of the London Olympics, this not being Barnettised).

    It is that Mr Cameron has decided to open the marking of the centenary of the start of the Great War there and then in Glasgow. Whether this is commemoration or celebration we will see - but I am not impressed by ideas such as the England versus Germany trench football match. I hope it will eventuate in better taste. One might suspect that this is yet another Union Jack fest with the indy referendum at least partly in mind (like the Jubilee tea parties, which were almost non-existent, and the Olympic torch route whose arrangements excluded any use of Scottish or Welsh flags, but allowed Korean corporate flags, with unfortunate overtones ...).

    Wjat is interesting is that Glasgow is, I suspect, the most sensitive place in the UK to celebrocommemorate the GW. Scottish military casualties were the worst in the UK, and in Europe other than Serbia - or so it is often believed, which is what counts in politics (as someone said the other day). Also part of the image - the home front was horrendous with rationing just in the nick of time to prevent famine in the poor, and the landlords ripping off the workers with their munitions wages, leading to rent strikes led by the womenfolk. And heavy industry subordinated to the war effort, then dumped postwar. Hence Red Clydeside, sending in the tanks in 1919, and all that. This was, as I understand it, historically crucial in the evolution of the Labour Party, and remains, a Labour heartland. There's enough truth in all of that to make me very interested to see how that plays out, even with the media spin on Mr Cameron's side.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    JonathanD said:


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour

    Out of interest, arguments here aside, do you really, seriously believe that sentence you wrote? Outside political pantomime land, house building took a dive all over the developed world because the banking system shat the bed, and it's picked up a bit as the economy picked itself up off the floor.
    Edmondo

    Let's play spot the Labour Government:
    DCLG            
    House Building
    Completions

    1991-92 9,900
    1992-93 4,420
    1993-94 3,530
    1994-95 3,060
    1995-96 3,010
    1996-97 1,540
    1997-98 1,520
    1998-99 870
    1999-00 320
    2000-01 380
    2001-02 230
    2002-03 300
    2003-04 210
    2004-05 130
    2005-06 320
    2006-07 260
    2007-08 250
    2008-09 830
    2009-10 780
    2010-11 1,760
    2011-12 3,080
    2012-13 2,330
  • Options
    Mr. Carnyx, I'd not heard the football story before, but I think that might actually be ok. It was a moment of fun and common humanity in the midst of machine warfare, a rare spot of light in a rather horrid war.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AveryLP said:

    JonathanD said:


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour

    Out of interest, arguments here aside, do you really, seriously believe that sentence you wrote? Outside political pantomime land, house building took a dive all over the developed world because the banking system shat the bed, and it's picked up a bit as the economy picked itself up off the floor.
    Edmondo

    Let's play spot the Labour Government:

    ...

    Table header should have stated that these figures are Local Government builds only.

  • Options
    AveryLP said:

    JonathanD said:


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour

    Out of interest, arguments here aside, do you really, seriously believe that sentence you wrote? Outside political pantomime land, house building took a dive all over the developed world because the banking system shat the bed, and it's picked up a bit as the economy picked itself up off the floor.
    Edmondo

    Let's play spot the Labour Government:
    DCLG            
    House Building
    Completions

    1991-92 9,900
    1992-93 4,420
    1993-94 3,530
    1994-95 3,060
    1995-96 3,010
    1996-97 1,540
    1997-98 1,520
    1998-99 870
    1999-00 320
    2000-01 380
    2001-02 230
    2002-03 300
    2003-04 210
    2004-05 130
    2005-06 320
    2006-07 260
    2007-08 250
    2008-09 830
    2009-10 780
    2010-11 1,760
    2011-12 3,080
    2012-13 2,330
    This looks more like a game of "spot the person who's cocked up their spreadsheet". Can you link directly to the document these numbers are coming from?
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    JonathanD said:


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour

    Out of interest, arguments here aside, do you really, seriously believe that sentence you wrote? Outside political pantomime land, house building took a dive all over the developed world because the banking system shat the bed, and it's picked up a bit as the economy picked itself up off the floor.
    Edmondo

    Let's play spot the Labour Government:
    DCLG            
    House Building
    Completions

    1991-92 9,900
    1992-93 4,420
    1993-94 3,530
    1994-95 3,060
    1995-96 3,010
    1996-97 1,540
    1997-98 1,520
    1998-99 870
    1999-00 320
    2000-01 380
    2001-02 230
    2002-03 300
    2003-04 210
    2004-05 130
    2005-06 320
    2006-07 260
    2007-08 250
    2008-09 830
    2009-10 780
    2010-11 1,760
    2011-12 3,080
    2012-13 2,330
    This looks more like a game of "spot the person who's cocked up their spreadsheet". Can you link directly to the document these numbers are coming from?
    You ask.

    I provide.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/259896/LiveTable209.xls
  • Options

    antifrank said:

    To make Richard Nabavi's point about the financial illiteracy of Ed Miliband on housebuilders, here are the last five years' profits and losses of those companies:

    http://www.barrattdevelopments.co.uk/barratt/en/investor/performance/five
    http://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/media/pdf/8/g/Annual-Report-2013.pdf#page=117
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=PSN
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=TW.

    Three out of four of these have made more losses than profits in the last five years.

    Profit and loss at big businesses (which our big house builders are) over a five year period are not necessarily indicators of anything much. Losses are sometimes rather nice if they help you from a tax perspective' They may also indicate investments - such as land purchases in the case of builders - that will reap major gains further down the line. If you buy a lot of land when the market is flat, then start building when it picks up, you will show losses for a while. But then you will show profits. The issue is whether what works for house builders works for the country. There has to be an alignment of needs. I don't know if Ed has the solution, but he is absolutely right to be asking the question.



    But Ed Miliband is putting his argument on the basis of the increased profits that the housebuilders are now making. Either he accepts that the losses were real losses (in which case their dramatic improvement in profitability now is something he can't deplore but instead should be relieved about) or he doesn't (in which case he has to accept that the apparent dramatic improvement in profitability is something that is completely irrelevant).
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    JonathanD said:


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour

    Out of interest, arguments here aside, do you really, seriously believe that sentence you wrote? Outside political pantomime land, house building took a dive all over the developed world because the banking system shat the bed, and it's picked up a bit as the economy picked itself up off the floor.
    Edmondo

    Let's play spot the Labour Government:
    DCLG            
    House Building
    Completions

    1991-92 9,900
    1992-93 4,420
    1993-94 3,530
    1994-95 3,060
    1995-96 3,010
    1996-97 1,540
    1997-98 1,520
    1998-99 870
    1999-00 320
    2000-01 380
    2001-02 230
    2002-03 300
    2003-04 210
    2004-05 130
    2005-06 320
    2006-07 260
    2007-08 250
    2008-09 830
    2009-10 780
    2010-11 1,760
    2011-12 3,080
    2012-13 2,330
    This looks more like a game of "spot the person who's cocked up their spreadsheet". Can you link directly to the document these numbers are coming from?
    You ask.

    I provide.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/259896/LiveTable209.xls
    [EiT - I assume you took note of my follow up post clarifying that the table was for Local Government building completions only].

  • Options
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    To make Richard Nabavi's point about the financial illiteracy of Ed Miliband on housebuilders, here are the last five years' profits and losses of those companies:

    http://www.barrattdevelopments.co.uk/barratt/en/investor/performance/five
    http://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/media/pdf/8/g/Annual-Report-2013.pdf#page=117
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=PSN
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=TW.

    Three out of four of these have made more losses than profits in the last five years.

    Profit and loss at big businesses (which our big house builders are) over a five year period are not necessarily indicators of anything much. Losses are sometimes rather nice if they help you from a tax perspective' They may also indicate investments - such as land purchases in the case of builders - that will reap major gains further down the line. If you buy a lot of land when the market is flat, then start building when it picks up, you will show losses for a while. But then you will show profits. The issue is whether what works for house builders works for the country. There has to be an alignment of needs. I don't know if Ed has the solution, but he is absolutely right to be asking the question.



    But Ed Miliband is putting his argument on the basis of the increased profits that the housebuilders are now making. Either he accepts that the losses were real losses (in which case their dramatic improvement in profitability now is something he can't deplore but instead should be relieved about) or he doesn't (in which case he has to accept that the apparent dramatic improvement in profitability is something that is completely irrelevant).
    That would require Ed (and labour) to understand how business works, along with economic cycles.

    They clearly don't.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Quiz Clue - Historic Post

    A pinniped in the Baron's khazi

  • Options
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    JonathanD said:


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour

    Out of interest, arguments here aside, do you really, seriously believe that sentence you wrote? Outside political pantomime land, house building took a dive all over the developed world because the banking system shat the bed, and it's picked up a bit as the economy picked itself up off the floor.
    Edmondo

    Let's play spot the Labour Government:

    ...

    Table header should have stated that these figures are Local Government builds only.

    OK, so now why not post the overall new build numbers - start is probably better than completion if we're after a government effect, since a new government can't really come in and say, "Builders, we demand that you started some houses a couple of years ago, which we order you to complete!".
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,918
    Do we need houses for sale or do we need houses for people to live in? By which I mean that in a time when by any reasonable definition many of the potential homeowners simply cannot afford to buy, we should be building council houses again. Or at least funding Housing Associations to build homes for rent.
  • Options
    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Damian Lyons Lowe ‏@DamianSurvation 1h
    We will be publishing 4 additional Alan Bown constituency polls tonight for tomorrow's press, watch this space...

    4 in one go!
  • Options

    Do we need houses for sale or do we need houses for people to live in? By which I mean that in a time when by any reasonable definition many of the potential homeowners simply cannot afford to buy, we should be building council houses again. Or at least funding Housing Associations to build homes for rent.

    Supply and Demand.
  • Options
    ojcorbsojcorbs Posts: 30
    edited December 2013
    I don't understand the notion that the Saltire stunt at Wimbledon was a 'coup' for Salmond. It made him look like a pillock who was politicizing the occasion. Many people(particularly nationalists) thought it was funny, but most people just thought it was poor taste.
  • Options
    Mr. Corbs (welcome to pb.com, incidentally), indeed.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited December 2013

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    JonathanD said:


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour

    Out of interest, arguments here aside, do you really, seriously believe that sentence you wrote? Outside political pantomime land, house building took a dive all over the developed world because the banking system shat the bed, and it's picked up a bit as the economy picked itself up off the floor.
    Edmondo

    Let's play spot the Labour Government:

    ...

    Table header should have stated that these figures are Local Government builds only.

    OK, so now why not post the overall new build numbers - start is probably better than completion if we're after a government effect, since a new government can't really come in and say, "Builders, we demand that you started some houses a couple of years ago, which we order you to complete!".
    Here you are, Edmondo
    DCLG               
    Housing Completions
    All Sectors
    UK Total


    1992-93 178,420
    1993-94 186,850
    1994-95 195,580
    1995-96 197,710
    1996-97 185,940
    1997-98 190,760
    1998-99 178,290
    1999-00 184,010
    2000-01 175,370
    2001-02 174,200
    2002-03 183,210
    2003-04 190,590
    2004-05 206,620
    2005-06 214,000
    2006-07 219,070
    2007-08 218,530
    2008-09 178,780
    2009-10 152,950
    2010-11 137,400
    2011-12 145,910
    2012-13 135,120
    On completions vs starts there are stats available for both but over a period of two decades the difference is not significant.

    As the private sector accounts for all but 12-15% of the totals over the period, then the government's direct impact is not really going to show in the total figures.

    This doesn't apply though to Local Authority builds which are all but directly financed by Central Government. That is why the LA build stats, insignificant as they are in the total picture, are a good indicator of the lack of effort put into housebuilding by the 1992 - 2010 Labour Governments.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,890

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    JonathanD said:


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour

    Out of interest, arguments here aside, do you really, seriously believe that sentence you wrote? Outside political pantomime land, house building took a dive all over the developed world because the banking system shat the bed, and it's picked up a bit as the economy picked itself up off the floor.
    Edmondo

    Let's play spot the Labour Government:

    ...

    Table header should have stated that these figures are Local Government builds only.

    OK, so now why not post the overall new build numbers - start is probably better than completion if we're after a government effect, since a new government can't really come in and say, "Builders, we demand that you started some houses a couple of years ago, which we order you to complete!".
    Not necessarily - even starts for big developments can go through a cycle of both local and national governments. For instance the massive 9,000+ home development at Northstowe in Cambridgeshire was first mooted in 2007, and planning was only given in 2012, although I don't think the S106 has been finalised. Whilst the start figures will probablyoccur under this government, the previous may (*) deserve credit.

    http://www.northstowe.uk.com/

    In addition, start figures can be gamed, especially to get around the three-year planning lapse period.

    (*) Although if you look at Northstowe's history, perhaps not.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Salmond does not need any help from the Saltire, he manages to look a pr*ck most of the time
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,918
    edited December 2013

    Do we need houses for sale or do we need houses for people to live in? By which I mean that in a time when by any reasonable definition many of the potential homeowners simply cannot afford to buy, we should be building council houses again. Or at least funding Housing Associations to build homes for rent.

    Supply and Demand.
    Don't follow your comment. Given that average household income for a working age family in the is country is about £33000, then it's a heavy gamble on inflation to buy a house for more that £140-150k. If we hadn't developoed a culture of home ownership, as opposed to renting in this country many people would be quite happily renting, rather than incurring huge debts though borrowing beyond their means.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    JackW said:

    Quiz Clue - Historic Post

    A pinniped in the Baron's khazi

    Lord Privy Seal.

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    Mr. Dickson, just skimmed the start and it's a slightly misleading summary.

    It says that peers who move out of Scotland could remain in the Lords, and those who are Scottish-resident would not be peers in the Lords anymore.
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    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    JonathanD said:


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour

    Out of interest, arguments here aside, do you really, seriously believe that sentence you wrote? Outside political pantomime land, house building took a dive all over the developed world because the banking system shat the bed, and it's picked up a bit as the economy picked itself up off the floor.
    Edmondo

    Let's play spot the Labour Government:

    ...

    Table header should have stated that these figures are Local Government builds only.

    OK, so now why not post the overall new build numbers - start is probably better than completion if we're after a government effect, since a new government can't really come in and say, "Builders, we demand that you started some houses a couple of years ago, which we order you to complete!".
    Not necessarily - even starts for big developments can go through a cycle of both local and national governments. For instance the massive 9,000+ home development at Northstowe in Cambridgeshire was first mooted in 2007, and planning was only given in 2012, although I don't think the S106 has been finalised. Whilst the start figures will probablyoccur under this government, the previous may (*) deserve credit.

    http://www.northstowe.uk.com/

    In addition, start figures can be gamed, especially to get around the three-year planning lapse period.

    (*) Although if you look at Northstowe's history, perhaps not.
    Well, this is my point. You couldn't get the conclusion Avery wants ("spot the Labour government") from these numbers even if the trends supported it, which they don't, which is why he posted some subset of the actual numbers - local authority builds, which have basically been none since the early 90s - instead.
  • Options

    Do we need houses for sale or do we need houses for people to live in? By which I mean that in a time when by any reasonable definition many of the potential homeowners simply cannot afford to buy, we should be building council houses again. Or at least funding Housing Associations to build homes for rent.

    Supply and Demand.
    Don't follow your comment. Given that average household income for a working age family in the is country is about £33000, then it's a heavy gamble on inflation to buy a house for more that £140-150k. If we hadn't developoed a culture of home ownership, as opposed to renting in this country many people would be quite happily renting, rather than incurring huge debts though borrowing beyond their means.
    So effectively you would rather the country incurs vast quantities of debt instead?

    Of course maybe labour should have thought about the vast increase in population first, but clearly that never happened.
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    Because clearly he's not motivated by self-interest.

    Seems an no-brainer to me. No Scotland as part of the UK leads to a reduction of the house of lords.

    As SO says a independent Scotland would lead to the entire setup at Westminster needing to be considered
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    AveryLP said:

    JackW said:

    Quiz Clue - Historic Post

    A pinniped in the Baron's khazi

    Lord Privy Seal.

    Correct.

    Historically one of the Great Offices of State. Jay, Longford and Clyne all held the post in Labour governments.

    More recently the post has been held with another cabinet position, presently Andrew Lansley as the Leader of the House of Commons.

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    compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    edited December 2013
    Has Cameron completely lost the plot. Selfies at a funeral, "Team Nigella" and now he has declared "Mission Accomplished" in Afghanistan. There are soldiers to be stationed there for another year at least and he declares "Mission Accomplished". He has obviously not learned from Bush's idiotic declaration in Iraq.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,918

    Do we need houses for sale or do we need houses for people to live in? By which I mean that in a time when by any reasonable definition many of the potential homeowners simply cannot afford to buy, we should be building council houses again. Or at least funding Housing Associations to build homes for rent.

    Supply and Demand.
    Don't follow your comment. Given that average household income for a working age family in the is country is about £33000, then it's a heavy gamble on inflation to buy a house for more that £140-150k. If we hadn't developoed a culture of home ownership, as opposed to renting in this country many people would be quite happily renting, rather than incurring huge debts though borrowing beyond their means.
    So effectively you would rather the country incurs vast quantities of debt instead?

    Of course maybe labour should have thought about the vast increase in population first, but clearly that never happened.
    I didn't realise that selling off council houses had reduced the National Debt to that extent! And the "vast increase in population" is as much down to the indigenous birthrate as anything else.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,214
    edited December 2013
    JackW said:

    AveryLP said:

    JackW said:

    Quiz Clue - Historic Post

    A pinniped in the Baron's khazi

    Lord Privy Seal.

    Correct.

    Historically one of the Great Offices of State. Jay, Longford and Clyne all held the post in Labour governments.

    More recently the post has been held with another cabinet position, presently Andrew Lansley as the Leader of the House of Commons.

    Although I believe Lansley is not technically a member of the Cabinet. Is he the first LPS not to be so?
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    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    To make Richard Nabavi's point about the financial illiteracy of Ed Miliband on housebuilders, here are the last five years' profits and losses of those companies:

    http://www.barrattdevelopments.co.uk/barratt/en/investor/performance/five
    http://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/media/pdf/8/g/Annual-Report-2013.pdf#page=117
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=PSN
    http://www.redmayne.co.uk/research/securitydetails/financials.htm?tkr=TW.

    Three out of four of these have made more losses than profits in the last five years.

    Profit and loss at big businesses (which our big house builders are) over a five year period are not necessarily indicators of anything much. Losses are sometimes rather nice if they help you from a tax perspective' They may also indicate investments - such as land purchases in the case of builders - that will reap major gains further down the line. If you buy a lot of land when the market is flat, then start building when it picks up, you will show losses for a while. But then you will show profits. The issue is whether what works for house builders works for the country. There has to be an alignment of needs. I don't know if Ed has the solution, but he is absolutely right to be asking the question.



    But Ed Miliband is putting his argument on the basis of the increased profits that the housebuilders are now making. Either he accepts that the losses were real losses (in which case their dramatic improvement in profitability now is something he can't deplore but instead should be relieved about) or he doesn't (in which case he has to accept that the apparent dramatic improvement in profitability is something that is completely irrelevant).

    I am not sure that works. He could be arguing that big swings in profit and loss dictated by corporate accounting policy and board decision are not the way in which to develop a sustainable housing policy that works for the country. I don't know if he is doing that because I have not read the speech; but I suspect that very few of us have.

    My purpose here is not to defend the specific policies that EdM comes up with as leader of the opposition, but his choice of subject. I am glad that he has picked housing, just as I think he was right to choose energy. And if he is looking more closely at the practices of big business generally, good on him there too. I may not have definitive answers, but I refuse to accept that the systems under which we are operating now are the optimal ones. Things may improve if we do start to ask a lot more questions.

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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Gareth Thomas MP ‏@GarethThomasMP 4h

    Tory divisions on Europe = Immigration Bill headache for Cameron who voted for Bulgaria & Romania to join EU http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2013/12/trouble-at-tmills.html
    UKIP still above what they were polling before the May elections. Clearly time for the tory headbangers to make certain immigration remains centre stage for the next five months.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    Luckily Cammie Blair doesn't need any help from his idiot backbenchers. He manages to look an of touch twit most of the time.
    InTerrain ‏@In_Terrain 4h

    SECURITY NEWS FEED: Four children dead in Afghanistan's explosion: KABUL: A landmine explosion has left 4 chil... http://bit.ly/1k7e58M

    Abdul Bugti Baloch ‏@Abdul_Bugti 23h

    This time, armed gunmen, indeed from Pakistani intelligence agencies opened fire at the camp and shot dead two young men. #Afghanistan

    dogcicle ‏@dogcicle

    blogdog: Karzay says he no longer trusts the US ...Nearly 20 dead in air raids across Afghanistan over 2 days http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2013/12/karzay-says-he-no-longer-trusts-us.html
    Time for a second rate Blair impersonating chickenhawk to strut his stuff.
    George Smiley ‏@364690 1m

    Tell that to those with missing limbs. RT @Telegraph: David Cameron declares 'mission accomplished' in Afghanistan http://fw.to/G7A9rrJ
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,890

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    JonathanD said:


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour

    Out of interest, arguments here aside, do you really, seriously believe that sentence you wrote? Outside political pantomime land, house building took a dive all over the developed world because the banking system shat the bed, and it's picked up a bit as the economy picked itself up off the floor.
    Edmondo

    Let's play spot the Labour Government:

    ...

    Table header should have stated that these figures are Local Government builds only.

    OK, so now why not post the overall new build numbers - start is probably better than completion if we're after a government effect, since a new government can't really come in and say, "Builders, we demand that you started some houses a couple of years ago, which we order you to complete!".
    Not necessarily - even starts for big developments can go through a cycle of both local and national governments. For instance the massive 9,000+ home development at Northstowe in Cambridgeshire was first mooted in 2007, and planning was only given in 2012, although I don't think the S106 has been finalised. Whilst the start figures will probablyoccur under this government, the previous may (*) deserve credit.

    http://www.northstowe.uk.com/

    In addition, start figures can be gamed, especially to get around the three-year planning lapse period.

    (*) Although if you look at Northstowe's history, perhaps not.
    Well, this is my point. You couldn't get the conclusion Avery wants ("spot the Labour government") from these numbers even if the trends supported it, which they don't, which is why he posted some subset of the actual numbers - local authority builds, which have basically been none since the early 90s - instead.
    Urrrm, no. Although the situation is complex, the basic figures do indicate trends.

    Add in Pathfinder (and nobody seems inclined to even start defending that) and other items, and it is clear that Labour cared f'all about housing whilst in power. They said fine words and did next to nothing, even during a boom.
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    Salmond does not need any help from the Saltire, he manages to look a pr*ck most of the time

    I'm sure you don't need a flag to help how you're generally perceived either.

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    Because clearly he's not motivated by self-interest.

    Seems an no-brainer to me. No Scotland as part of the UK leads to a reduction of the house of lords.

    As SO says a independent Scotland would lead to the entire setup at Westminster needing to be considered
    There is precedent on that, with Irish independence. In that instance, the existing Irish peers in the Lords kept their places but when they died, were not replaced. Like Scottish peers at the time, and almost all hereditaries now, Irish peers elected a set number of their cohort to Westminster; when one died, a by-election was held. As no Scottish peer, whether life or hereditary no has a place in parliament solely on account of inheritance, there's no reason the same process couldn't apply in the event of Scottish independence.
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    JonathanD said:


    The Tories have been talking about this for several years now. Its why the number of builds are going up after hitting record lows under Labour

    Out of interest, arguments here aside, do you really, seriously believe that sentence you wrote? Outside political pantomime land, house building took a dive all over the developed world because the banking system shat the bed, and it's picked up a bit as the economy picked itself up off the floor.
    Edmondo

    Let's play spot the Labour Government:

    ...

    Table header should have stated that these figures are Local Government builds only.

    OK, so now why not post the overall new build numbers - start is probably better than completion if we're after a government effect, since a new government can't really come in and say, "Builders, we demand that you started some houses a couple of years ago, which we order you to complete!".
    Not necessarily - even starts for big developments can go through a cycle of both local and national governments. For instance the massive 9,000+ home development at Northstowe in Cambridgeshire was first mooted in 2007, and planning was only given in 2012, although I don't think the S106 has been finalised. Whilst the start figures will probablyoccur under this government, the previous may (*) deserve credit.

    http://www.northstowe.uk.com/

    In addition, start figures can be gamed, especially to get around the three-year planning lapse period.

    (*) Although if you look at Northstowe's history, perhaps not.
    Well, this is my point. You couldn't get the conclusion Avery wants ("spot the Labour government") from these numbers even if the trends supported it, which they don't, which is why he posted some subset of the actual numbers - local authority builds, which have basically been none since the early 90s - instead.
    Surely the point is from 1997-2010 we had a labour government with massive majorities who could do what it liked. Why then were social housing completions in 1995-96 the last year of a tory led government higher than any year of the 13 years of a labour government. How mad is that, is that what labour is about? What is also interesting is that in the first full year of this coalition government (2011-2012) the social housing completions were also higher than any year under labour. Why should anyone believe what Labour say on housing with this type of record?
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    TomTom Posts: 273
    Taking a long view there have been two post war 'step change' falls in housing delivery. One after the late 1970s when we stopped building Council housing and the second coming out of the late 80s/early 90s recession. The latter was after Ridley got duffed up by the shires and the 'Plan Led' system was strengthened.

    In the 2000s, until the bust, private completions across the cycle were roughly back to the 1980s level. It remains to be seen what the pick up will be from the unprecedented recent fall although (again over the cycle) business as usual would be a third lower than Miliband and the Government want, which in turn is less than we probably need (and housebuilders are already talking privately about capacity constraints).

    The Urban Renaissance/Brownfield First approach was initiated by Gummer and retained by Prescott, and has suited both parties because it pleases rural NIMBYs and urban authorities. However it clearly reduces the 'natural rate' of housing delivery because it costs more, and it reduces family housing in favour of small flats. Hence both parties moving away from it now. It will be interesting to see if Boles/Pickles continue to turn the screw on their own authorities.

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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited December 2013


    My purpose here is not to defend the specific policies that EdM comes up with as leader of the opposition, but his choice of subject. I am glad that he has picked housing, just as I think he was right to choose energy. And if he is looking more closely at the practices of big business generally, good on him there too. I may not have definitive answers, but I refuse to accept that the systems under which we are operating now are the optimal ones. Things may improve if we do start to ask a lot more questions.

    You're over-complicating.

    Ed's message is simple, and unambiguous: the housebuilders are making profits, and that's a bad thing. It's exactly the same thing he said about the actually quite modest returns the energy companies make - Labour even attacked SSE for wanting to pay increasing dividends, FFS.

    Businessmen and women are not stupid, and investors considering subscribing to some future rights issue, or fund managers evaluating a bond issue, are even less so. If we end up, God forbid, with a PM who thinks private investors should take the losses but be lambasted or worse when there are profits, they will get the message. They can invest anywhere in the world: why on earth would anyone in his or her right mind invest somewhere subject to the whim of an anti-business populist who seems completely unconcerned about the fate of whole industries, and who (according to his own words) actively objects to profits?

    The guy is an absolute menace, a real disaster in the making.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    TUD.. How you perceive me is of absolutely no importance...
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    My purpose here is not to defend the specific policies that EdM comes up with as leader of the opposition, but his choice of subject. I am glad that he has picked housing, just as I think he was right to choose energy. And if he is looking more closely at the practices of big business generally, good on him there too. I may not have definitive answers, but I refuse to accept that the systems under which we are operating now are the optimal ones. Things may improve if we do start to ask a lot more questions.

    You and the laughably inept Cameroonian spinner do seem to keep forgetting that Cammie is nothing more than a second rate Blair impersonator. That means it's not only an absolute certainty that he has postured on housebuilding before but that he will be running scared on it and posture again since he knows the public view him as a comically out of touch tory.
    PricedOut ‏@pricedoutuk

    Good to see @David_Cameron making the case for housebuilding. The CPRE don't have a monopoly on local opinion http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/greenpolitics/planning/10458385/Dont-block-new-rural-homes-David-Cameron-tells-Tories.html


    ChelgatePlanning ‏@ChelgatePlan 39m

    David Cameron hires new planning adviser Alex Morton. Likely to lead to even greater emphasis on housebuilding http://fw.to/6JK05US
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    According to Guido.. Labour will not be having a referndum..
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811

    "It will be quite a long time since we have had a major party going into an election so obviously hostile to private enterprise."

    Asking whether the current way in which big businesses conduct themselves is not the same as being hostile to private enterprise. Far from it, in fact.

    Tories will not be happy till we have boys going up chimneys and overflowing poorhouses again
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    ojcorbs said:

    I don't understand the notion that the Saltire stunt at Wimbledon was a 'coup' for Salmond. It made him look like a pillock who was politicizing the occasion. Many people(particularly nationalists) thought it was funny, but most people just thought it was poor taste.

    Many thought it showed how much he loved his country., only people south of the border thought it was poor taste.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    edited December 2013

    Mr. Dickson, just skimmed the start and it's a slightly misleading summary.

    It says that peers who move out of Scotland could remain in the Lords, and those who are Scottish-resident would not be peers in the Lords anymore.

    MD there will be a stampede of troughers heading for the border

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811

    Salmond does not need any help from the Saltire, he manages to look a pr*ck most of the time

    Richard, that is poor even by your low standards
This discussion has been closed.