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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa’s Tories take a 4 point lead with YouGov – their best
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa’s Tories take a 4 point lead with YouGov – their best position in any poll since GE2017
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I'd need a lot more convincing (and a few more similar polls) before I'd believe the Tory lead suggested by YouGov in these findings.
But, who knows.
However, the meme which is being very effectively established is that doing Brexit IS difficult. However, that does not mean it is perceived as being wrong but it does mean that it is understood by most thinking electors that the government might be doing a poor job but that it is doing the best that can be done. (Especially with the muttonheaded hostility of the self serving wannabe establishment.)
Narrow opportunism is eventually seen for what it is and 90% of comments from the left have been using Brexit as a stick to beat the government, never saying anything constructive - I exclude Keir Starmer and to a lesser extent Jeremy Corbyn from this.
For the local elections, which are restricted to a narrow more partisan turnout than real elections the anti-government is likely to be exaggerated compared with the electorate as a whole. They are likely to be very polarised.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/961468124968177664
Split, argumentative, passionate is better than
Split, silent, insincerity, opportunistic.
It is a remarkable development in the face of the most relentlessly negative media coverage that I can remember since the dog days of Major. That media coverage is focussed on Brexit and it is clearly having an effect on the perception of the government's competence in dealing with it, albeit it does not seem to be shifting many leavers to remainers. if May and Davis do come up with a half decent Brexit deal that the Tories can consolidate around Labour are in serious trouble. Big if though.
Labour are leaving the Tories to self destruct and depriving themselves of the publicity?
nor does she feel that she has divine sanction to launch wars of choice, like Tony Blair. Hang in there Theresa.
I also note that OGH can’t bring himself to mention the essential dead heat in the Brexit right or wrong question in the thread header. The 6-point gap was clearly an outlier.
Prevaricating is not the same thing as playing cards close to your chest. Those who have to make investment decisions based on what happens next year still have nothing to go on.
The government's own assessments published this week show the possibility of massive hits to the UK's car industry (look at the forecasts for the North East and West Midlands under FTA or WTO conditions...)
Yes, it is possible that everything might just turn out OK, but it is at least equally possible that it could be dire. And up until now we have barely engaged in negotiations.
Oddly, Fidesz is a member of the EPP rather than the European Conservatives and Reformists group (which is led by the Tories and the equally xenophobic Polish Law and Justice party) in the EU parliament.
Cynically maybe this one is by people who want May to stay PM
Is Don't Know still in the lead ?
Only a second election defeat will do, and for that they need a change of leader in the Tories. Some duff polls for the Government, showing double digit leads for Labour would do nicely.
Whilst nice for the blues I suspect this is just statistical noise. Have to see how the next few polls look.
I've (at length) been saying that:
a) Corbyn is Brexit's Bezzy Mate, so
b) he's not going for a second referendum meaning
c) a sizeable chunk of his supporters are sussing him out - and in turn, will be blaming him as they see Brexit actually happening. What's the point of being the Jezziah if you won't even stop Brexit?
A gnarled old Labour hand told me a while back "It'll be Brexit as does for Corbyn...." Once the tide of polling starts falling back, once it is clear Labour are going to lose yet ANOTHER election with him at the helm....the voices will start murmering. "'E's got to go, tha knows...."
But as noted, even if such a poll shift is accurate and sustained, it's not like it affects either of the big two. Labour Will Ignore bad polls For the obvious reasons given the GE, and the tories are too divided to be healed by encouraging polls.
#WorkForEveryone
What do you make of the 'less stress through more exams' idea ...?
I would like to suggest, though, that the Tories will likely underperform this at the upcoming local elections. I think LDs will make better gains in local Tory held seats than they have a chance at possibly doing nationally, and I don't know how much Corbyn becomes a weight on your local council candidate if he's knocked on your door a few times and done a middling to good campaign.
I'd expect the locals to be a better snapshot of where the public really stand, although I am not willing to really put figures on who does well where. Just a thought that LDs will make gains at expense of Tories in the south, Labour will make gains from Tories in the south and north, Tories won't do as well as people might think. (I know in my leafy 'burb, f'rinstance, that the biggest issue for voters on the door is NHS and doctors; something Tories do not win votes on)
It's also worth noting that Theresa May in comparison to the nutters who surround her is shining relatively brightly.
The one given is that Corbyn will be around as long as he wants. Accept nothing as given.
When Nigel Farage went to Ireland to advise the Irish to Irexit, he was told to piss off.
Similar rules apply to George Soros. He has no discernible connection to the UK, and should be told in similar terms not to interfere.
It seems a reasonable assumption this morning that Nick Timothy penned the “citizens of nowhere” soundbite.
"Are Remain voters starting to wake up to how Corbyn is supporting hard Brexit?"
More likely, Leave voters are realising that insistence of the single market and CU = Bino. Jezza has been quiet and you have the Labour Remainers in full voice.
Even more likely, it's just noise.
Brexit is the main thing and the key factor has nothing to do with Labour. Currently half the population think Brexit will have no economic consequences - maybe helpful. They are wrong and you could also call cognitive dissonance with other things they believe. Nevertheless, opinion polls and elections deal with belief, not reality. Because Brexit is going to be fine, Conservative Headbangers can say and do what they want and it won't make any difference to Brexit success. For the same reason, Labour can't capitalise on Brexit outcomes, although they could possibly shore up their support.
Had you any real idea of what I think, you'd realise that I accept the Brexit vote; what I don't accept is the utterly incompetent manner in which the government is dealing with what happens next.
If you don't belive that there is a huge threat to our manufacturing base - and that applies to our aerospace industry every bit as much as motor manufacturing - then you are both complacent and naive.
The middle classes, the middle aged and the old will turn out next time, not for love of the tories but for fear of Corbyn's Labour. And they are right to be fearful....
Corbyn is rubbish at day to day politics. This is completely to be expected.
A few more "there is no antisemitism in the Labour party" stories, more creepy left wing stuff like in HAringey and there's only one direction of travel.
Well, until they start up that bluddy chant again -_-
New Con - Lib coalition maybe
Theresa May might be negotiating incompetently with the EU, but clearly the public does not believe any other politician would do a better job.
Corbyn did well at the GE by moving debate onto public services, challenging the economic status quo, and being the best available means to prevent May from acquiring a strong majority and the mandate to negotiate Brexit with minimal oversight.
Since the country is growing quite healthily at the moment with record low unemployment as opposed to the suggested immediate recession and skyrocketing unemployment I'd have thought those against Brexit might by now have a touch of humility and doubt about their own predictions.