It’s a pretty big deal that the PM’s former adviser is citing far right Eastern European anti-Semites in his takedown of Soros. It’s all very Breitbart and adds a layer or two to that whole citizens of nowhere meme. She is well shot of him. But ... https://twitter.com/spajw/status/961468124968177664
Young Mr Jones seems to have a very poor take on political theory if he thinks the Hungarian Government is anywhere near a dictatorship.
I would call it a partial democracy, closer to the real thing than Russia or Venezuela but a long way from the completed product.
The EIU lists it as a 'Flawed Democracy' at #56, ahead of Croatia, but behind the Dominican Republic.
Russia is 'Authoritarian' (#135) while Venezuela is #117. What surprised me was France in the list of 'Flawed Democracies' at #29 behind South Korea #20. The UK is #14, just behind Germany, with Spain (just) the only big European countries to make it into the 'Full Democracies' list.
It could be caused by unrest from both remainers and leavers
Or they could actually be doing a shit job of it.
Given that 18 months in the government has yet to decide on what kind of Brexit it wants, the only surprise is that 22% of those polled think it’s doing a good negotiating job. They are certainly very well represented on PB!!
I think this is difficult. The government has divisions yes but also wants to play cards close to its chest. Result: media goes wild on a daily basis while the public goes meh ...
This is absurd. Prevaricating is not the same thing as playing cards close to your chest. Those who have to make investment decisions based on what happens next year still have nothing to go on. The government's own assessments published this week show the possibility of massive hits to the UK's car industry (look at the forecasts for the North East and West Midlands under FTA or WTO conditions...)
Yes, it is possible that everything might just turn out OK, but it is at least equally possible that it could be dire. And up until now we have barely engaged in negotiations.
Most arguments one doesn't like are 'absurd'. Then they can more easily be ignored. It was made clear from the start that there'd be no blow by blow account on a daily basis. But May has been very consistent and it annoys the 'remainers' who want ammunition to reverse a democratic vote. Like me you need to be patient and suck it up. Obviously you'll find poll frustrating. Rather like the referendum result and the postponed armageddon, it is what it is.
You are quite right; May has been exceptionally consistent in putting off any important decision until the last possible minute.
Lol - clearly you're still hurting and the polling just twists the knife. My sympathies.
And you are utterly clueless. Had you any real idea of what I think, you'd realise that I accept the Brexit vote; what I don't accept is the utterly incompetent manner in which the government is dealing with what happens next. If you don't belive that there is a huge threat to our manufacturing base - and that applies to our aerospace industry every bit as much as motor manufacturing - then you are both complacent and naive.
Ah yes more insults with a lashing of project fear. That's the way to win. I too voted Remain btw. I lost 20 % of my pension after the sterling slide. Life goes on and new doors open. Half empty glasses aren't moving the polls .
Mr. NorthWales, doubt it. The Lib Dems, having championed PR and coalitions for so long, are not very keen on them nowadays.
Probably not and as has been said that is a majority of 2 x the DUP
It t is all speculative but many on here critise me for my support for TM during Brexit and even though 59% are unhappy she does seem to be receiving some respect from the public beyond the media bubble
Corbyn is rubbish at day to day politics. This is completely to be expected.
A few more "there is no antisemitism in the Labour party" stories, more creepy left wing stuff like in HAringey and there's only one direction of travel.
Well, until they start up that bluddy chant again -_-
The Westminster Village doesn't have a clue about their employers.
Electoral calculas on these figured gives - Con 326 Lab 247 Libs 16 SNP 39 others 22
New Con - Lib coalition maybe
That's an outright Con majority. Doubtful there'd be a coalition in those circumstances.
But they could still fling a few quid to the DUP, to keep them sweet with their voters in NI ("we continue to bring home the bacon from London!") ....and no need to worry about by-elections - or Anna Soubry going rogue.
Although this could be an outlier poll (probably is IMO), there does seem to be a slow drift away from Labour since after the election.
Brexit is the main thing and the key factor has nothing to do with Labour. Currently half the population think Brexit will have no economic consequences - maybe helpful. They are wrong and you could also call cognitive dissonance with other things they believe. Nevertheless, opinion polls and elections deal with belief, not reality. Because Brexit is going to be fine, Conservative Headbangers can say and do what they want and it won't make any difference to Brexit success. For the same reason, Labour can't capitalise on Brexit outcomes, although they could possibly shore up their support.
Total hubris to just say they are wrong. Why are they wrong?
Since the country is growing quite healthily at the moment with record low unemployment as opposed to the suggested immediate recession and skyrocketing unemployment I'd have thought those against Brexit might by now have a touch of humility and doubt about their own predictions.
Why wrong that Brexit won't have economic consequences? Because almost all the known unknowns are downside risks. New duties are costs. Non-tariff barriers are costs. Uncertainty is cost. Deferred or lost investment possibilities will cost in jobs. There are many concrete and immediate reasons why Brexit will have negative economic conssequences. There are no reasons to believe it will be positive or neutral and there is actual evidence that it is negative.
Also cognitive dissonance because people think the negotiations are going badly but don't think that badness will have any real consequences. I wouldn't try to reconcile those positions. As I say, reality doesn't matter in opinion polling. You are asking people what they think because that drives election results.
I assume this is noise, as people aren't really thinking about an election right now? Even in the case of a "snap" election, polls without an election looming in the public mind are more just feelings towards parties than VI.
I would like to suggest, though, that the Tories will likely underperform this at the upcoming local elections. I think LDs will make better gains in local Tory held seats than they have a chance at possibly doing nationally, and I don't know how much Corbyn becomes a weight on your local council candidate if he's knocked on your door a few times and done a middling to good campaign.
I'd expect the locals to be a better snapshot of where the public really stand, although I am not willing to really put figures on who does well where. Just a thought that LDs will make gains at expense of Tories in the south, Labour will make gains from Tories in the south and north, Tories won't do as well as people might think. (I know in my leafy 'burb, f'rinstance, that the biggest issue for voters on the door is NHS and doctors; something Tories do not win votes on)
Remember Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% and UKIP got 17%. If this poll is anything like correct both the Tories and LDs could make gains and Labour could even lose seats
I hope you are right, anything that focuses minds to hasten Corbyn's exit can't come too soon. Sadly that ship has probably sailed and we will be left with a bonkers hard left opposition for the remainder of my lifetime.
The prospect outlined wouldn't be so bad if the government, for the next twenty or so years was likely to be anything other than gravely inadequate at best. For all the talk of Tom Tugenhadt or Johnny Mercer, what we will get is one or more of Davis, Gove, Johnson or JRM .
Perhaps this demonstrates Nick Timothy's genius. Engineer a hung parliament opposed by a resurgent Jeremy Corbyn, allowing a takeover by Momentum to ensure Labour are hamstrung for a generation or two.
Ah yes more insults with a lashing of project fear. That's the way to win. I too voted Remain btw. I lost 20 % of my pension after the sterling slide. Life goes on and new doors open. Half empty glasses aren't moving the polls .
Did you really though?
Sterling is now back to the same level as it was with the dollar pre referendum while the FTSE and.other stocks are higher aren't they?
It doesn't matter what the polls say - after last summer his core support base can (justifiably) claim he'll do it on the day.
Im afraid this is nonsense. A unique set of circumstances coincided in June 2017 to boost Corbyn's results - not least that many were protesting with little seeming fear that he would actually be elected.
The middle classes, the middle aged and the old will turn out next time, not for love of the tories but for fear of Corbyn's Labour. And they are right to be fearful....
When it comes to who runs the Labour party and sets their direction of travel it doesn't matter what the rest of the country thinks - all that matters is the people who would vote in any leadership contest. And, no matter what the polls say, 'look at last summer' will be a very persuasive argument to these people.
Electoral calculas on these figured gives - Con 326 Lab 247 Libs 16 SNP 39 others 22
New Con - Lib coalition maybe
That's an outright Con majority. Doubtful there'd be a coalition in those circumstances.
But they could still fling a few quid to the DUP, to keep them sweet with their voters in NI ("we continue to bring home the bacon from London!") ....and no need to worry about by-elections - or Anna Soubry going rogue.
Mr. NorthWales, doubt it. The Lib Dems, having championed PR and coalitions for so long, are not very keen on them nowadays.
Probably not and as has been said that is a majority of 2 x the DUP
It t is all speculative but many on here critise me for my support for TM during Brexit and even though 59% are unhappy she does seem to be receiving some respect from the public beyond the media bubble
The other parties haven't necessarily factored in the DUP in ongoing UK politics. If their arrangement can survive Brexit, there's no reason why future Conservative governments won't be happy to see an informal coaltion develop. It is going to make it so much harder for Labour to regain power.
Hard to see how Corbyn or McDonnell can successfully outbid. The trust just won't be there. Another reason why, in due course, reality is going to set in on the Labour side...
It's a good poll for the Conservatives no question and perhaps speaks more to what voters really think than the daily round of Westminster gossip and the like.
I'm not convinced Labour's poll fall is down to its A50 policy - it is perhaps more a reflection of its failure to move from being a party of Opposition to a potential credible Party of Government. Opposing most of the things a Government proposes isn't difficult - you can find arguments for opposing most things.
The difficult bit is putting forward a credible alternative policy which isn't just "let's spend more money" which has only partial credibility at best.
The only time a Government gets into trouble is when it is politically or ideologically incapable of putting forward the credible alternative as its own policy and then the Opposition has a chance to steal a big advantage in a key area. I think the current Government is very weak on law and order and a strong Shadow Home Secretary could be making strong headway against Amber Rudd.
Let's not forget - Labour can be strong on law and order - I don't recall David Blunkett as being a shrinking violet on these issues. However, there seems little sign of that at this time.
Now, I will be told by one poster it's all down to Corbyn and if only "mainstream Labour" (and I don't know what that means) policies were followed the Party would be on its way to a landslide.
I'm not convinced - Corbyn is what he is and every Labour leader since and including Attlee has been personally vilified by the pro-Conservative press (as, in all fairness, have a few Conservative leaders as well). Whoever leads Labour will face a continuous attack on their character and every imperfection including how they eat a bacon sandwich is reflected and magnified to enhance their apparent unsuitability to be Prime Minister..
If I were advising Corbyn and the Shadow Cabinet, I'd start by telling them to imagine Britain in the 2020s after four years of Labour Government. What do they want to do ? What are the issues and problems preventing that happening and start backwards from the vision. For most voters, it isn't about Brexit but the day-to-day struggles of life. Corbyn needs to convince people it's not just about "the nasty Tories" but building something better for the future and making their own lives better. Offer a positive vision and you'd be surprised how popular it could be.
At the moment, few people are convinced their lives would be better and society and their communities would be better if Labour was in Government - that's the challenge.
Strangely enough, Labour won in 1997 by not offering a radical vision - they won simply by promising to manage the post-Thatcher order more fairly and efficiently than the Tories.
You don't have to be radical to win - you can and sometimes (1945 and 1979) it works but more often you win simply by showing you are less incompetent than the current Government.
I'm not convinced Labour's poll fall is down to its A50 policy - it is perhaps more a reflection of its failure to move from being a party of Opposition to a potential credible Party of Government. Opposing most of the things a Government proposes isn't difficult - you can find arguments for opposing most things.
The difficult bit is putting forward a credible alternative policy which isn't just "let's spend more money" which has only partial credibility at best.
The only time a Government gets into trouble is when it is politically or ideologically incapable of putting forward the credible alternative as its own policy and then the Opposition has a chance to steal a big advantage in a key area. I think the current Government is very weak on law and order and a strong Shadow Home Secretary could be making strong headway against Amber Rudd.
Let's not forget - Labour can be strong on law and order - I don't recall David Blunkett as being a shrinking violet on these issues. However, there seems little sign of that at this time.
Now, I will be told by one poster it's all down to Corbyn and if only "mainstream Labour" (and I don't know what that means) policies were followed the Party would be on its way to a landslide.
I'm not convinced - Corbyn is what he is and every Labour leader since and including Attlee has been personally vilified by the pro-Conservative press (as, in all fairness, have a few Conservative leaders as well). Whoever leads Labour will face a continuous attack on their character and every imperfection including how they eat a bacon sandwich is reflected and magnified to enhance their apparent unsuitability to be Prime Minister..
If I were advising Corbyn and the Shadow Cabinet, I'd start by telling them to imagine Britain in the 2020s after four years of Labour Government. What do they want to do ? What are the issues and problems preventing that happening and start backwards from the vision. For most voters, it isn't about Brexit but the day-to-day struggles of life. Corbyn needs to convince people it's not just about "the nasty Tories" but building something better for the future and making their own lives better. Offer a positive vision and you'd be surprised how popular it could be.
At the moment, few people are convinced their lives would be better and society and their communities would be better if Labour was in Government - that's the challenge.
Strangely enough, Labour won in 1997 by not offering a radical vision - they won simply by promising to manage the post-Thatcher order more fairly and efficiently than the Tories.
You don't have to be radical to win - you can and sometimes (1945 and 1979) it works but more often you win simply by showing you are less incompetent than the current Government.
It's a good poll for the Conservatives no question and perhaps speaks more to what voters really think than the daily round of Westminster gossip and the like.
I'm not convinced Labour's poll fall is down to its A50 policy - it is perhaps more a reflection of its failure to move from being a party of Opposition to a potential credible Party of Government. Opposing
The only time a Government gets into trouble is when it is politically or ideologically incapable of putting forward the credible alternative as its own policy and then the Opposition has a chance to steal a big advantage in a key area. I think the current Government is very weak on law and order and a strong Shadow Home Secretary could be making strong headway against Amber Rudd.
Let's not forget - Labour can be strong on law and order - I don't recall David Blunkett as being a shrinking violet on these issues. However, there seems little sign of that at this time.
Now, I will be told by one poster it's all down to Corbyn and if only "mainstream Labour" (and I don't know what that means) policies were followed the Party would be on its way to a landslide.
I'm not convinced - Corbyn is what he is and every Labour leader since and including Attlee has been personally vilified by the pro-Conservative press (as, in all fairness, have a few Conservative leaders as well). Whoever leads Labour will face a continuous attack on their character and every imperfection including how they eat a bacon sandwich is reflected and magnified to enhance their apparent unsuitability to be Prime Minister..
If I were advising Corbyn and the Shadow Cabinet, I'd start by telling them to imagine Britain in the 2020s after four years of Labour Government. What do they want to do ? What are the issues and problems preventing that happening and start backwards from the vision. For most voters, it isn't about Brexit but the day-to-day struggles of life. Corbyn needs to convince people it's not just about "the nasty Tories" but building something better for the future and making their own lives better. Offer a positive vision and you'd be surprised how popular it could be.
At the moment, few people are convinced their lives would be better and society and their communities would be better if Labour was in Government - that's the challenge.
Strangely enough, Labour won in 1997 by not offering a radical vision - they won simply by promising to manage the post-Thatcher order more fairly and efficiently than the Tories.
You don't have to be radical to win - you can and sometimes (1945 and 1979) it works but more often you win simply by showing you are less incompetent than the current Government.
Very sensible advice. I agree that a different type of Opposition would be hurting the government on law and order.
I assume this is noise, as people aren't really thinking about an election right now? Even in the case of a "snap" election, polls without an election looming in the public mind are more just feelings towards parties than VI.
I would like to suggest, though, that the Tories will likely underperform this at the upcoming local elections. I think LDs will make better gains in local Tory held seats than they have a chance at possibly doing nationally, and I don't know how much Corbyn becomes a weight on your local council candidate if he's knocked on your door a few times and done a middling to good campaign.
I'd expect the locals to be a better snapshot of where the public really stand, although I am not willing to really put figures on who does well where. Just a thought that LDs will make gains at expense of Tories in the south, Labour will make gains from Tories in the south and north, Tories won't do as well as people might think. (I know in my leafy 'burb, f'rinstance, that the biggest issue for voters on the door is NHS and doctors; something Tories do not win votes on)
Remember Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% and UKIP got 17%. If this poll is anything like correct both the Tories and LDs could make gains and Labour could even lose seats
I hope you are right, anything that focuses minds to hasten Corbyn's exit can't come too soon. Sadly that ship has probably sailed and we will be left with a bonkers hard left opposition for the remainder of my lifetime.
The prospect outlined wouldn't be so bad if the government, for the next twenty or so years was likely to be anything other than gravely inadequate at best. For all the talk of Tom Tugenhadt or Johnny Mercer, what we will get is one or more of Davis, Gove, Johnson or JRM .
Perhaps this demonstrates Nick Timothy's genius. Engineer a hung parliament opposed by a resurgent Jeremy Corbyn, allowing a takeover by Momentum to ensure Labour are hamstrung for a generation or two.
Whatever happens in the local elections, Corbyn will lead Labour at the next general election
It’s a pretty big deal that the PM’s former adviser is citing far right Eastern European anti-Semites in his takedown of Soros. It’s all very Breitbart and adds a layer or two to that whole citizens of nowhere meme. She is well shot of him. But ... https://twitter.com/spajw/status/961468124968177664
Young Mr Jones seems to have a very poor take on political theory if he thinks the Hungarian Government is anywhere near a dictatorship.
I would call it a partial democracy, closer to the real thing than Russia or Venezuela but a long way from the completed product.
The EIU lists it as a 'Flawed Democracy' at #56, ahead of Croatia, but behind the Dominican Republic.
Russia is 'Authoritarian' (#135) while Venezuela is #117. What surprised me was France in the list of 'Flawed Democracies' at #29 behind South Korea #20. The UK is #14, just behind Germany, with Spain (just) the only big European countries to make it into the 'Full Democracies' list.
Some of the ratings don't make sense. France was a flawed democracy in the Fifties and early Sixties, as was South Korea in the Eighties, but they're fully democratic now.
It’s a pretty big deal that the PM’s former adviser is citing far right Eastern European anti-Semites in his takedown of Soros. It’s all very Breitbart and adds a layer or two to that whole citizens of nowhere meme. She is well shot of him. But ... https://twitter.com/spajw/status/961468124968177664
Young Mr Jones seems to have a very poor take on political theory if he thinks the Hungarian Government is anywhere near a dictatorship.
I would call it a partial democracy, closer to the real thing than Russia or Venezuela but a long way from the completed product.
The EIU lists it as a 'Flawed Democracy' at #56, ahead of Croatia, but behind the Dominican Republic.
Russia is 'Authoritarian' (#135) while Venezuela is #117. What surprised me was France in the list of 'Flawed Democracies' at #29 behind South Korea #20. The UK is #14, just behind Germany, with Spain (just) the only big European countries to make it into the 'Full Democracies' list.
Spain's direction of travel is out of the "full democracies" list:
"At 8.08, Spain’s score remains just above the threshold of 8 for full democracies, having fallen significantly as a result of the national government’s attempt to stop by force Catalonia’s illegal referendum on independence on October 1st."
(Very interesting report btw. Thanks for highlighting it.)
Ah yes more insults with a lashing of project fear. That's the way to win. I too voted Remain btw. I lost 20 % of my pension after the sterling slide. Life goes on and new doors open. Half empty glasses aren't moving the polls .
Did you really though?
Sterling is now back to the same level as it was with the dollar pre referendum while the FTSE and.other stocks are higher aren't they?
So have you really lost?
I live in Spain and the drop against the Euro has persisted. I was able to offset the loss with a lucky investment in Banco Santander
I'm not convinced Labour's poll fall is down to its A50 policy - it is perhaps more a reflection of its failure to move from being a party of Opposition to a potential credible Party of Government. Opposing most of the things a Government proposes isn't difficult - you can find arguments for opposing most things.
The difficult bit is putting forward a credible alternative policy which isn't just "let's spend more money" which has only partial credibility at best.
Now, I will be told by one poster it's all down to Corbyn and if only "mainstream Labour" (and I don't know what that means) policies were followed the Party would be on its way to a landslide.
I'm not convinced - Corbyn is what he is and every Labour leader since and including Attlee has been personally vilified by the pro-Conservative press (as, in all fairness, have a few Conservative leaders as well). Whoever leads Labour will face a continuous attack on their character and every imperfection including how they eat a bacon sandwich is reflected and magnified to enhance their apparent unsuitability to be Prime Minister..
If I were advising Corbyn and the Shadow Cabinet, I'd start by telling them to imagine Britain in the 2020s after four years of Labour Government. What do they want to do ? What are the issues and problems preventing that happening and start backwards from the vision. For most voters, it isn't about Brexit but the day-to-day struggles of life. Corbyn needs to convince people it's not just about "the nasty Tories" but building something better for the future and making their own lives better. Offer a positive vision and you'd be surprised how popular it could be.
At the moment, few people are convinced their lives would be better and society and their communities would be better if Labour was in Government - that's the challenge.
Strangely enough, Labour won in 1997 by not offering a radical vision - they won simply by promising to manage the post-Thatcher order more fairly and efficiently than the Tories.
You don't have to be radical to win - you can and sometimes (1945 and 1979) it works but more often you win simply by showing you are less incompetent than the current Government.
Good post, stodge.
+1 "Offer a positive vision and you'd be surprised how popular it could be." Who could learn from that then?
Not actually about Northamptonshire in isolation but it's a complex and complicated issue and obviously much easier on here to banter about Brexit.
One in three Councils overspend and it's not a party political problem - South Hams, the worst offender, has a huge Conservative majority. It's a combination of increased demand, reductions in funding, poor internal financial management (in some cases) and the inability (via legislation) to apply the kind of Council Tax increases which would allow the funding gaps to be closed locally.
The main problem, I think, was the absurd decision in 2010 to ring-fence aspects of public expenditure from the austerity being applied elsewhere. Some parts of the public finances have carried a disproportionately heavy load for the reduction in the overall deficit and unfortunately where areas of growing demand (adult social care) are in those areas the demand to reduce the national deficit has coincided with a huge rise in demand for that service.
That was foreseeable - the demographic changes were well known long before 2010 - but the Coalition and now the Conservatives on their own have failed to recognise or properly address these concerns (I'd also add the growing demand for school places which might be argued as a direct impact from economic policy).
Some of the ratings don't make sense. France was a flawed democracy in the Fifties and early Sixties, as was South Korea in the Eighties, but they're fully democratic now.
France gets marked down for:
During the past year the trend towards the concentration of media ownership has continued apace in France, with the result that the links between journalists and political/economic interests have become closer. France provides a salutary reminder of how easily media independence can be compromised by such links, having experienced several con icts of interest in recent years. Media pluralism and reliability of the news have been put in doubt......
Decades of decline in the quality of democracy have swelled support for anti-establishment parties in western Europe, both on the left and on the right. In major elections in France, the Netherlands and Germany two-round or proportional voting systems helped to keep radical parties out of officein 2017. However, the underlying problem of mainstream parties’ failure to address the concerns and insecurities of younger and working-class voters remains unresolved. This will continue to sustain anti-establishment sentiment for the foreseeable future, tempting some mainstream parties to adopt illiberal stances to counter the rise of the populists...
..Finally, France became subject to greater social and political polarisation in 2017, despite the defeat of the far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, by the centrist president, Emmanuel Macron, in May. Also the incorporation of state of emergency powers into the body of French law presents a potential threat to the rights and freedoms of many groups in France, and not only potential terrorist groups or individuals.
Not actually about Northamptonshire in isolation but it's a complex and complicated issue and obviously much easier on here to banter about Brexit.
One in three Councils overspend and it's not a party political problem - South Hams, the worst offender, has a huge Conservative majority. It's a combination of increased demand, reductions in funding, poor internal financial management (in some cases) and the inability (via legislation) to apply the kind of Council Tax increases which would allow the funding gaps to be closed locally.
The main problem, I think, was the absurd decision in 2010 to ring-fence aspects of public expenditure from the austerity being applied elsewhere. Some parts of the public finances have carried a disproportionately heavy load for the reduction in the overall deficit and unfortunately where areas of growing demand (adult social care) are in those areas the demand to reduce the national deficit has coincided with a huge rise in demand for that service.
That was foreseeable - the demographic changes were well known long before 2010 - but the Coalition and now the Conservatives on their own have failed to recognise or properly address these concerns (I'd also add the growing demand for school places which might be argued as a direct impact from economic policy).
Given that the budget deficit will come in £10-12 bn lower than forecast, the government needs to start easing the purse-strings.
Some of the ratings don't make sense. France was a flawed democracy in the Fifties and early Sixties, as was South Korea in the Eighties, but they're fully democratic now.
France gets marked down for:
During the past year the trend towards the concentration of media ownership has continued apace in France, with the result that the links between journalists and political/economic interests have become closer. France provides a salutary reminder of how easily media independence can be compromised by such links, having experienced several con icts of interest in recent years. Media pluralism and reliability of the news have been put in doubt......
Decades of decline in the quality of democracy have swelled support for anti-establishment parties in western Europe, both on the left and on the right. In major elections in France, the Netherlands and Germany two-round or proportional voting systems helped to keep radical parties out of officein 2017. However, the underlying problem of mainstream parties’ failure to address the concerns and insecurities of younger and working-class voters remains unresolved. This will continue to sustain anti-establishment sentiment for the foreseeable future, tempting some mainstream parties to adopt illiberal stances to counter the rise of the populists...
..Finally, France became subject to greater social and political polarisation in 2017, despite the defeat of the far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, by the centrist president, Emmanuel Macron, in May. Also the incorporation of state of emergency powers into the body of French law presents a potential threat to the rights and freedoms of many groups in France, and not only potential terrorist groups or individuals.
I take the view that the rise in populist parties shows that voters are keeping faith with democracy. In previous eras, they would have supporters coups and revolutions.
I assume this is noise, as people aren't really thinking about an election right now? Even in the case of a "snap" election, polls without an election looming in the public mind are more just feelings towards parties than VI.
I would like to suggest, though, that the Tories will likely underperform this at the upcoming local elections. I think LDs will make better gains in local Tory held seats than they have a chance at possibly doing nationally, and I don't know how much Corbyn becomes a weight on your local council candidate if he's knocked on your door a few times and done a middling to good campaign.
I'd expect the locals to be a better snapshot of where the public really stand, although I am not willing to really put figures on who does well where. Just a thought that LDs will make gains at expense of Tories in the south, Labour will make gains from Tories in the south and north, Tories won't do as well as people might think. (I know in my leafy 'burb, f'rinstance, that the biggest issue for voters on the door is NHS and doctors; something Tories do not win votes on)
Remember Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% and UKIP got 17%. If this poll is anything like correct both the Tories and LDs could make gains and Labour could even lose seats
I hope you are right, anything that focuses minds to hasten Corbyn's exit can't come too soon. Sadly that ship has probably sailed and we will be left with a bonkers hard left opposition for the remainder of my lifetime.
The prospect outlined wouldn't be so bad if the government, for the next twenty or so years was likely to be anything other than gravely inadequate at best. For all the talk of Tom Tugenhadt or Johnny Mercer, what we will get is one or more of Davis, Gove, Johnson or JRM .
Perhaps this demonstrates Nick Timothy's genius. Engineer a hung parliament opposed by a resurgent Jeremy Corbyn, allowing a takeover by Momentum to ensure Labour are hamstrung for a generation or two.
Whatever happens in the local elections, Corbyn will lead Labour at the next general election
I think the EU's "punishment" line has gone down very poorly with voters, remain or leave. That could be why the government saw a bit of a turnaround and the right to leave rating is a bit better.
Is the penny dropping with Labour supporters that Corbyn supports Brexit ?
It's my experience time and reality can often lead to subtle but important policy changes.
I was fascinated to hear VInce Cable on Marr last weekend moving away from the rather anti-democratic "we're going to stop Brexit" to a more nuanced line about ensuring it works for the country, adequate safeguards etc.
It is the uncertainty of not knowing what the outcome of the A50 negotiations will be that makes policy making in Opposition more difficult - it's not so much a question of overplaying your hand as not even knowing what cards you have.
Both Labour and the LDs (and indeed some Conservatives) will have to shape their future direction against what comes out of A50. That's why Labour is silent - it is waiting to see which direction May and Davis go.
Therein lies May and Davis's dilemma. Go too "soft" and face a barrage from your own side, go too "hard" and face a barrage from the Opposition AND some on your own side.
There is the potential for a future Government to re-negotiate the terms of the economic relationship with the EU. That would be a credible position (as distinct from "let's rejoin") and in essence what successive Governments have done since 1973.
Not actually about Northamptonshire in isolation but it's a complex and complicated issue and obviously much easier on here to banter about Brexit.
One in three Councils overspend and it's not a party political problem - South Hams, the worst offender, has a huge Conservative majority. It's a combination of increased demand, reductions in funding, poor internal financial management (in some cases) and the inability (via legislation) to apply the kind of Council Tax increases which would allow the funding gaps to be closed locally.
The main problem, I think, was the absurd decision in 2010 to ring-fence aspects of public expenditure from the austerity being applied elsewhere. Some parts of the public finances have carried a disproportionately heavy load for the reduction in the overall deficit and unfortunately where areas of growing demand (adult social care) are in those areas the demand to reduce the national deficit has coincided with a huge rise in demand for that service.
That was foreseeable - the demographic changes were well known long before 2010 - but the Coalition and now the Conservatives on their own have failed to recognise or properly address these concerns (I'd also add the growing demand for school places which might be argued as a direct impact from economic policy).
Given that the budget deficit will come in £10-12 bn lower than forecast, the government needs to start easing the purse-strings.
At this stage of the economic cycle, government debt-to-gdp should be coming down relatively quickly. (That doesn't mean we should necessarily be running a budget surplus, merely that nominal economic growth should be eating away at the size of the debt more quickly than we are adding to it through the deficit.)
I think the EU's "punishment" line has gone down very poorly with voters, remain or leave. That could be why the government saw a bit of a turnaround and the right to leave rating is a bit better.
I think the EU's "punishment" line has gone down very poorly with voters, remain or leave. That could be why the government saw a bit of a turnaround and the right to leave rating is a bit better.
The fieldwork was completed before then.
So next months swing may well be more pronounced ?
But also conflating not being antisemitic with just being pro-Israel?
Whether or not Nick T's specific article was antisemitic does not stop the general right wing distaste for George Soros having problematic antisemitic undertones (which it does).
I dont think it has anything to do with Brexit. Remainers are hardly going to support the Tories because Corbyn isnt against Brexit.
The really extraordinary thing against this poll, which is part of a pattern, is that this is a terrible time for the Tories. They are squabbling in public, some of them are threatening coups, Theresa May isnt very popular, the NHS is in crisis, its the most depressing part of Winter. Labour should have a double digit lead. Yet it is three points behind.
Set it into context. Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead. Neil Kinnock at one point was 20 points ahead.
Remainers are not going to go to the Tories, the most pro Brexit party because Corbyn is ambivalent. People are going to the Tories because Jeremy Corbyn is a hard left extremist, unfit to be prime minister, and they are beginning to realise that after June 2017 he stands a chance of winning.
There will be other polls, putting Labour ahead, butLabour is heading for a famous defeat in 2022.
I think the EU's "punishment" line has gone down very poorly with voters, remain or leave. That could be why the government saw a bit of a turnaround and the right to leave rating is a bit better.
The fieldwork was completed before then.
So next months swing may well be more pronounced ?
When is project fear 3.0 being rolled out ?
YouGov poll weekly.
If such a swing exists then we should see it next week, all things being equal.
In the same way that there was clear evidence of Saddam having WMD?
There is no doubt that Saddam had had WMD, and had used them against his own people. The question was one of: had he got rid of his WMD and the relevant programs?
So the implication of your question is that Russia has interfered in US elections before, and the question is whether they had stopped for that election.
I'm not convinced Labour's poll fall is down to its A50 policy - it is perhaps more a reflection of its failure to move from being a party of Opposition to a potential credible Party of Government. Opposing most of the things a Government proposes isn't difficult - you can find arguments for opposing most things.
The difficult bit is putting forward a credible alternative policy which isn't just "let's spend more money" which has only partial credibility at best.
The only time a Government gets into trouble is when it is politically or ideologically incapable of putting forward the credible alternative as its own policy and then the Opposition has a chance to steal a big advantage in a key area. I think the current Government is very weak on law and order and a strong Shadow Home Secretary could be making strong headway against Amber Rudd.
Now, I will be told by one poster it's all down to Corbyn and if only "mainstream Labour" (and I don't know what that means) policies were followed the Party would be on its way to a landslide.
I'm not convinced - Corbyn is what he is and every Labour leader since and including Attlee has been personally vilified by the pro-Conservative press (as, in all fairness, have a few Conservative leaders as well). Whoever leads Labour will face a continuous attack on their character and every imperfection including how they eat a bacon sandwich is reflected and magnified to enhance their apparent unsuitability to be Prime Minister..
If I were advising Corbyn and the Shadow Cabinet, I'd start by telling them to imagine Britain in the 2020s after four years of Labour Government. What do they want to do ? What are the issues and problems preventing that happening and start backwards from the vision. For most voters, it isn't about Brexit but the day-to-day struggles of life. Corbyn needs to convince people it's not just about "the nasty Tories" but building something better for the future and making their own lives better. Offer a positive vision and you'd be surprised how popular it could be.
At the moment, few people are convinced their lives would be better and society and their communities would be better if Labour was in Government - that's the challenge.
Strangely enough, Labour won in 1997 by not offering a radical vision - they won simply by promising to manage the post-Thatcher order more fairly and efficiently than the Tories.
You don't have to be radical to win - you can and sometimes (1945 and 1979) it works but more often you win simply by showing you are less incompetent than the current Government.
It's not "All about Brexit" but the difference between Labour being all square and them being down by 5 points IS all about Brexit. They punched above their potential while they were still the party of Remain. If they've lost that USP what are we left with?
Not actually about Northamptonshire in isolation but it's a complex and complicated issue and obviously much easier on here to banter about Brexit.
One in three Councils overspend and it's not a party political problem - South Hams, the worst offender, has a huge Conservative majority. It's a combination of increased demand, reductions in funding, poor internal financial management (in some cases) and the inability (via legislation) to apply the kind of Council Tax increases which would allow the funding gaps to be closed locally.
The main problem, I think, was the absurd decision in 2010 to ring-fence aspects of public expenditure from the austerity being applied elsewhere. Some parts of the public finances have carried a disproportionately heavy load for the reduction in the overall deficit and unfortunately where areas of growing demand (adult social care) are in those areas the demand to reduce the national deficit has coincided with a huge rise in demand for that service.
That was foreseeable - the demographic changes were well known long before 2010 - but the Coalition and now the Conservatives on their own have failed to recognise or properly address these concerns (I'd also add the growing demand for school places which might be argued as a direct impact from economic policy).
Given that the budget deficit will come in £10-12 bn lower than forecast, the government needs to start easing the purse-strings.
At this stage of the economic cycle, government debt-to-gdp should be coming down relatively quickly. (That doesn't mean we should necessarily be running a budget surplus, merely that nominal economic growth should be eating away at the size of the debt more quickly than we are adding to it through the deficit.)
It is starting to go down, but officially the stats include BoE debt (which is completely pointless). By the end of 2018 it will be down quite a lot.
Both parties within the margin of error of the last GE? I suspect following Labours unexpected good showing they gained a bit of a boost - which was temporary. Much like Brexit, I suspect the voters have not changed their minds.
But also conflating not being antisemitic with just being pro-Israel?
Whether or not Nick T's specific article was antisemitic does not stop the general right wing distaste for George Soros having problematic antisemitic undertones (which it does).
I posted this on Twitter, but perhaps younger folk have forgotten.
Mr Soros is certainly not to blame for the UK entering the ERM with an overvalued sterling, but Major's defence of the pound resulted in the base rate briefly hitting 15%. Given that mortgage deals were typically base rate + n%, this caused a certain amount of huffing into a paper bag hereabouts.
It’s a pretty big deal that the PM’s former adviser is citing far right Eastern European anti-Semites in his takedown of Soros. It’s all very Breitbart and adds a layer or two to that whole citizens of nowhere meme. She is well shot of him. But ... https://twitter.com/spajw/status/961468124968177664
It is entirely in line with use of the phrase "citizens of nowhere", alias "rootless cosmopolitan". The xenophobic British press and Tory party clearly see George Soros as a major public enemy in the same way as Victor Orban et al. They have probably never forgiven him for Black Wednesday.
Oddly, Fidesz is a member of the EPP rather than the European Conservatives and Reformists group (which is led by the Tories and the equally xenophobic Polish Law and Justice party) in the EU parliament.
Labour aren't going to get rid of Corbyn because he is a few points behind the Conservatives in the polls.
I would also point out that Corbyn's EU stance has been complained about ever since the chicken coup, the idea it has suddenly gained traction seems unlikely.
Also I would suggest, going by past experience, Dan Hodges, Conservative voter, is not the best judge of Labour leaders.
It's not "All about Brexit" but the difference between Labour being all square and them being down by 5 points IS all about Brexit. They punched above their potential while they were still the party of Remain. If they've lost that USP what are we left with?
The problem is neither main party is homogenous. Around a quarter or a third of Conservative supporters backed REMAIN though they may now have seen the error of their ways and a quarter to a third of Labour supporters backed LEAVE.
Both parties have substantial minorities to consider - the Conservatives will rely on innate loyalty and a fear of Corbyn to keep their REMAIN supporters on side.
The other problem is when we leave the EU formally the REMAIN position becomes redundant unless it morphs into "in Government we will seek to re-negotiate a better deal for the UK than May and her group of blundering halfwits has accomplished".
It’s a pretty big deal that the PM’s former adviser is citing far right Eastern European anti-Semites in his takedown of Soros. It’s all very Breitbart and adds a layer or two to that whole citizens of nowhere meme. She is well shot of him. But ... https://twitter.com/spajw/status/961468124968177664
Young Mr Jones seems to have a very poor take on political theory if he thinks the Hungarian Government is anywhere near a dictatorship.
I would call it a partial democracy, closer to the real thing than Russia or Venezuela but a long way from the completed product.
The EIU lists it as a 'Flawed Democracy' at #56, ahead of Croatia, but behind the Dominican Republic.
Russia is 'Authoritarian' (#135) while Venezuela is #117. What surprised me was France in the list of 'Flawed Democracies' at #29 behind South Korea #20. The UK is #14, just behind Germany, with Spain (just) the only big European countries to make it into the 'Full Democracies' list.
Some of the ratings don't make sense. France was a flawed democracy in the Fifties and early Sixties, as was South Korea in the Eighties, but they're fully democratic now.
I'm also wondering if the recent Catalonia doings occurred after Spain's elevation to 'Full Democracy'.
One more thing the line about not being anti semitic because he supports Israel says it all really.
You will be considered anti semitic if you stick up for Palestinians.
The problem is if you start labelling people like Corbyn anti semites then people will struggle to believe you when you point to real anti semites.
Although I guess that is only actually a problem if the people repeating the smears actually cared about anti semitism more than smearing Corbyn, shameful.
I think the EU's "punishment" line has gone down very poorly with voters, remain or leave. That could be why the government saw a bit of a turnaround and the right to leave rating is a bit better.
I've long suspected this.
One of the rules of British politics in the last two decades has been UK governments get a bump in the polls when standing up to bureaucrats in Brussels.
One more thing the line about not being anti semitic because he supports Israel says it all really.
You will be considered anti semitic if you stick up for Palestinians.
The problem is if you start labelling people like Corbyn anti semites then people will struggle to believe you when you point to real anti semites.
Although I guess that is only actually a problem if the people repeating the smears actually cared about anti semitism more than smearing Corbyn, shameful.
The real anti semites? Like holocaust deniers you mean? Good job there are none of them in Labour. Or you would start too look rather foolish.
Interesting to note the number of Labour supporters on Twitter who are reacting to the recent polls by saying "We were 25% behind last time and nearly won, so we can do it again next time".
I think the EU's "punishment" line has gone down very poorly with voters, remain or leave. That could be why the government saw a bit of a turnaround and the right to leave rating is a bit better.
I've long suspected this.
One of the rules of British politics in the last two decades has been UK governments get a bump in the polls when standing up to bureaucrats in Brussels.
Usually it’s cost free. Standing up for the British sausage when there’s a ticking clock isn’t quite the same thing.
Interesting to note the number of Labour supporters on Twitter who are reacting to the recent polls by saying "We were 25% behind last time and nearly won, so we can do it again next time".
Interesting to note the number of Labour supporters on Twitter who are reacting to the recent polls by saying "We were 25% behind last time and nearly won, so we can do it again next time".
The surge should be baked in to the polls ?
Mind you I doubt the long run Tory score looks to be about 41 to me with Labour on 42. More evidence needed to see if this is a trend or the polls will revert to the last 6 month norm.
Interesting to note the number of Labour supporters on Twitter who are reacting to the recent polls by saying "We were 25% behind last time and nearly won, so we can do it again next time".
Yes - I don’t think poor polling is going to help those who want Corbyn gone. It’s obviously silly to expect another 25 point swing - but I think the arguments that he is electoral poison/disaster/suicide have been disproven.
It’s a pretty big deal that the PM’s former adviser is citing far right Eastern European anti-Semites in his takedown of Soros. It’s all very Breitbart and adds a layer or two to that whole citizens of nowhere meme. She is well shot of him. But ... https://twitter.com/spajw/status/961468124968177664
Young Mr Jones seems to have a very poor take on political theory if he thinks the Hungarian Government is anywhere near a dictatorship.
I would call it a partial democracy, closer to the real thing than Russia or Venezuela but a long way from the completed product.
The EIU lists it as a 'Flawed Democracy' at #56, ahead of Croatia, but behind the Dominican Republic.
Russia is 'Authoritarian' (#135) while Venezuela is #117. What surprised me was France in the list of 'Flawed Democracies' at #29 behind South Korea #20. The UK is #14, just behind Germany, with Spain (just) the only big European countries to make it into the 'Full Democracies' list.
Some of the ratings don't make sense. France was a flawed democracy in the Fifties and early Sixties, as was South Korea in the Eighties, but they're fully democratic now.
I'm also wondering if the recent Catalonia doings occurred after Spain's elevation to 'Full Democracy'.
No, they dragged it down to being on the borderline with 'Flawed Democracy'
It's not "All about Brexit" but the difference between Labour being all square and them being down by 5 points IS all about Brexit. They punched above their potential while they were still the party of Remain. If they've lost that USP what are we left with?
The problem is neither main party is homogenous. Around a quarter or a third of Conservative supporters backed REMAIN though they may now have seen the error of their ways and a quarter to a third of Labour supporters backed LEAVE.
Both parties have substantial minorities to consider - the Conservatives will rely on innate loyalty and a fear of Corbyn to keep their REMAIN supporters on side.
The other problem is when we leave the EU formally the REMAIN position becomes redundant unless it morphs into "in Government we will seek to re-negotiate a better deal for the UK than May and her group of blundering halfwits has accomplished".
As 'Remain' is laid to rest, so 'Rejoin' will be born.
I think the EU's "punishment" line has gone down very poorly with voters, remain or leave. That could be why the government saw a bit of a turnaround and the right to leave rating is a bit better.
I've long suspected this.
One of the rules of British politics in the last two decades has been UK governments get a bump in the polls when standing up to bureaucrats in Brussels.
Usually it’s cost free. Standing up for the British sausage when there’s a ticking clock isn’t quite the same thing.
The only party willing to swallow the sausage is the LDs and they don't seem to be polling that well.
Evidence that a pro-Eu stance means an uptick in polling is thin on the ground.
I'm not sure this polling will be very helpful to Theresa. The plotters won't believe that it's due to anything she's done, rather it's all a function of Jezza's hopelessness. The thought will be that if Theresa's can do this well against Jezza imagine what the Dream Team might achieve.
Interesting to note the number of Labour supporters on Twitter who are reacting to the recent polls by saying "We were 25% behind last time and nearly won, so we can do it again next time".
Yes - I don’t think poor polling is going to help those who want Corbyn gone. It’s obviously silly to expect another 25 point swing - but I think the arguments that he is electoral poison/disaster/suicide have been disproven.
The Tories need to seriously role play and game defeating Corbyn in debates. The next leader they select needs to be confident in that arena.
The other problem is when we leave the EU formally the REMAIN position becomes redundant unless it morphs into "in Government we will seek to re-negotiate a better deal for the UK than May and her group of blundering halfwits has accomplished".
I just cannot see any mileage in any political party trying to re-open the Brexit settlement. There will just be no appetite to re-open a stall selling shit sandwiches.
I think the EU's "punishment" line has gone down very poorly with voters, remain or leave. That could be why the government saw a bit of a turnaround and the right to leave rating is a bit better.
I've long suspected this.
One of the rules of British politics in the last two decades has been UK governments get a bump in the polls when standing up to bureaucrats in Brussels.
Usually it’s cost free. Standing up for the British sausage when there’s a ticking clock isn’t quite the same thing.
The only party willing to swallow the sausage is the LDs and they don't seem to be polling that well.
Evidence that a pro-Eu stance means an uptick in polling is thin on the ground.
It's not "All about Brexit" but the difference between Labour being all square and them being down by 5 points IS all about Brexit. They punched above their potential while they were still the party of Remain. If they've lost that USP what are we left with?
The problem is neither main party is homogenous. Around a quarter or a third of Conservative supporters backed REMAIN though they may now have seen the error of their ways and a quarter to a third of Labour supporters backed LEAVE.
Both parties have substantial minorities to consider - the Conservatives will rely on innate loyalty and a fear of Corbyn to keep their REMAIN supporters on side.
The other problem is when we leave the EU formally the REMAIN position becomes redundant unless it morphs into "in Government we will seek to re-negotiate a better deal for the UK than May and her group of blundering halfwits has accomplished".
As 'Remain' is laid to rest, so 'Rejoin' will be born.
It's not "All about Brexit" but the difference between Labour being all square and them being down by 5 points IS all about Brexit. They punched above their potential while they were still the party of Remain. If they've lost that USP what are we left with?
The problem is neither main party is homogenous. Around a quarter or a third of Conservative supporters backed REMAIN though they may now have seen the error of their ways and a quarter to a third of Labour supporters backed LEAVE.
Both parties have substantial minorities to consider - the Conservatives will rely on innate loyalty and a fear of Corbyn to keep their REMAIN supporters on side.
The other problem is when we leave the EU formally the REMAIN position becomes redundant unless it morphs into "in Government we will seek to re-negotiate a better deal for the UK than May and her group of blundering halfwits has accomplished".
As 'Remain' is laid to rest, so 'Rejoin' will be born.
But also conflating not being antisemitic with just being pro-Israel?
Whether or not Nick T's specific article was antisemitic does not stop the general right wing distaste for George Soros having problematic antisemitic undertones (which it does).
I posted this on Twitter, but perhaps younger folk have forgotten.
Mr Soros is certainly not to blame for the UK entering the ERM with an overvalued sterling, but Major's defence of the pound resulted in the base rate briefly hitting 15%. Given that mortgage deals were typically base rate + n%, this caused a certain amount of huffing into a paper bag hereabouts.
Interesting to note the number of Labour supporters on Twitter who are reacting to the recent polls by saying "We were 25% behind last time and nearly won, so we can do it again next time".
Yes - I don’t think poor polling is going to help those who want Corbyn gone. It’s obviously silly to expect another 25 point swing - but I think the arguments that he is electoral poison/disaster/suicide have been disproven.
The Tories need to seriously role play and game defeating Corbyn in debates. The next leader they select needs to be confident in that arena.
A good start would be to find a way to articulate why capitalism is a better option than the marxism that the current labour leadership are so keen on.
Osborne was very focused on discrediting Ed milibands slightly more left wing world view than his own and won that battle of ideas come 2015. At the moment the Tories are allowing the mad maomentum world view to gain credence despite the evidence of history showing us it doesn't work.
I think the EU's "punishment" line has gone down very poorly with voters, remain or leave. That could be why the government saw a bit of a turnaround and the right to leave rating is a bit better.
I've long suspected this.
One of the rules of British politics in the last two decades has been UK governments get a bump in the polls when standing up to bureaucrats in Brussels.
Usually it’s cost free. Standing up for the British sausage when there’s a ticking clock isn’t quite the same thing.
The only party willing to swallow the sausage is the LDs and they don't seem to be polling that well.
Evidence that a pro-Eu stance means an uptick in polling is thin on the ground.
I think the EU's "punishment" line has gone down very poorly with voters, remain or leave. That could be why the government saw a bit of a turnaround and the right to leave rating is a bit better.
I've long suspected this.
One of the rules of British politics in the last two decades has been UK governments get a bump in the polls when standing up to bureaucrats in Brussels.
Usually it’s cost free. Standing up for the British sausage when there’s a ticking clock isn’t quite the same thing.
The only party willing to swallow the sausage is the LDs and they don't seem to be polling that well.
Evidence that a pro-Eu stance means an uptick in polling is thin on the ground.
Maybe they'd do better with Jo Swinson as leader.
How about Gina Miller - and rebrand as the "Rejoin" party ?
Interesting to note the number of Labour supporters on Twitter who are reacting to the recent polls by saying "We were 25% behind last time and nearly won, so we can do it again next time".
Yes - I don’t think poor polling is going to help those who want Corbyn gone. It’s obviously silly to expect another 25 point swing - but I think the arguments that he is electoral poison/disaster/suicide have been disproven.
Given the swing is entirely among women, is it possible May's tough line on the sexual assault stuff has cut through?
It's not an explanation which will appeal to the (mostly male) conservative commentariat - and those on the left would find the idea uncomfortable, but it could be what explains the poll shift.
One more thing the line about not being anti semitic because he supports Israel says it all really.
You will be considered anti semitic if you stick up for Palestinians.
The problem is if you start labelling people like Corbyn anti semites then people will struggle to believe you when you point to real anti semites.
Although I guess that is only actually a problem if the people repeating the smears actually cared about anti semitism more than smearing Corbyn, shameful.
The real anti semites? Like holocaust deniers you mean? Good job there are none of them in Labour. Or you would start too look rather foolish.
Oh.
Ask yourself why the papers didn't have a problem with Labour's anti semitism problem before.
It's a good stick to beat Jezza with because he doesn't support the mistreatment of the Palestinians.
But can you see the risks of labeling people racist out of political convenience?
Think immigration concerns and people getting labelled racist.
Now if anti semitism isn't actually the concern but smears are then the position makes sense.
It's not "All about Brexit" but the difference between Labour being all square and them being down by 5 points IS all about Brexit. They punched above their potential while they were still the party of Remain. If they've lost that USP what are we left with?
The problem is neither main party is homogenous. Around a quarter or a third of Conservative supporters backed REMAIN though they may now have seen the error of their ways and a quarter to a third of Labour supporters backed LEAVE.
Both parties have substantial minorities to consider - the Conservatives will rely on innate loyalty and a fear of Corbyn to keep their REMAIN supporters on side.
The other problem is when we leave the EU formally the REMAIN position becomes redundant unless it morphs into "in Government we will seek to re-negotiate a better deal for the UK than May and her group of blundering halfwits has accomplished".
As 'Remain' is laid to rest, so 'Rejoin' will be born.
Rejoin will be up there with "flat earth" .
But with less science and more faith behind it.....
Also, Soros is a cancer to western society. His attempts to undermine democracy all over the west should be called out and those wishing to silence his critics by accusing them of anti-Semitism are just as bad as he is. I don't dislike him because he's Jewish, I dislike him because of his support of open borders and ultra-leftist politics and his funding of disingenuous ultra-leftist groups.
Interesting to note the number of Labour supporters on Twitter who are reacting to the recent polls by saying "We were 25% behind last time and nearly won, so we can do it again next time".
Yes - I don’t think poor polling is going to help those who want Corbyn gone. It’s obviously silly to expect another 25 point swing - but I think the arguments that he is electoral poison/disaster/suicide have been disproven.
Given the swing is entirely among women, is it possible May's tough line on the sexual assault stuff has cut through?
Could be. Normal caveats about sub samples - but I guess men and women are quite-large sub samples(!?)
I think the EU's "punishment" line has gone down very poorly with voters, remain or leave. That could be why the government saw a bit of a turnaround and the right to leave rating is a bit better.
I've long suspected this.
One of the rules of British politics in the last two decades has been UK governments get a bump in the polls when standing up to bureaucrats in Brussels.
Usually it’s cost free. Standing up for the British sausage when there’s a ticking clock isn’t quite the same thing.
The only party willing to swallow the sausage is the LDs and they don't seem to be polling that well.
Evidence that a pro-Eu stance means an uptick in polling is thin on the ground.
Maybe they'd do better with Jo Swinson as leader.
As was suggested on here the other day, they’re welcome to Anna Soubry!
Also, Soros is a cancer to western society. His attempts to undermine democracy all over the west should be called out and those wishing to silence his critics by accusing them of anti-Semitism are just as bad as he is. I don't dislike him because he's Jewish, I dislike him because of his support of open borders and ultra-leftist politics and his funding of disingenuous ultra-leftist groups.
Max not accusing you of anything but do you take the same attitude towards those who constantly get accused of anti semitism for sticking up for the rights of Palestinians?
Also, Soros is a cancer to western society. His attempts to undermine democracy all over the west should be called out and those wishing to silence his critics by accusing them of anti-Semitism are just as bad as he is. I don't dislike him because he's Jewish, I dislike him because of his support of open borders and ultra-leftist politics and his funding of disingenuous ultra-leftist groups.
Max not accusing you of anything but do you take the same attitude towards those who constantly get accused of anti semitism for sticking up for the rights of Palestinians?
Can you provide any specific examples (I don't doubt there are, it'd just be nice to see some).
I think the EU's "punishment" line has gone down very poorly with voters, remain or leave. That could be why the government saw a bit of a turnaround and the right to leave rating is a bit better.
I've long suspected this.
One of the rules of British politics in the last two decades has been UK governments get a bump in the polls when standing up to bureaucrats in Brussels.
Usually it’s cost free. Standing up for the British sausage when there’s a ticking clock isn’t quite the same thing.
The only party willing to swallow the sausage is the LDs and they don't seem to be polling that well.
Evidence that a pro-Eu stance means an uptick in polling is thin on the ground.
Maybe they'd do better with Jo Swinson as leader.
As was suggested on here the other day, they’re welcome to Anna Soubry!
If you actually look at how Soubry has voted whilst an MP (and not just her toys-out-the-pram -since-losing-her-job phase), then that voting record would make their little LibDemmy heads explode......
Also, Soros is a cancer to western society. His attempts to undermine democracy all over the west should be called out and those wishing to silence his critics by accusing them of anti-Semitism are just as bad as he is. I don't dislike him because he's Jewish, I dislike him because of his support of open borders and ultra-leftist politics and his funding of disingenuous ultra-leftist groups.
Max not accusing you of anything but do you take the same attitude towards those who constantly get accused of anti semitism for sticking up for the rights of Palestinians?
depends a bit how much airtime they give the Palestinians relative to the rohingya, Syrians, Pakhtuns, etc etc etc.
Also, Soros is a cancer to western society. His attempts to undermine democracy all over the west should be called out and those wishing to silence his critics by accusing them of anti-Semitism are just as bad as he is. I don't dislike him because he's Jewish, I dislike him because of his support of open borders and ultra-leftist politics and his funding of disingenuous ultra-leftist groups.
Max not accusing you of anything but do you take the same attitude towards those who constantly get accused of anti semitism for sticking up for the rights of Palestinians?
Also, Soros is a cancer to western society. His attempts to undermine democracy all over the west should be called out and those wishing to silence his critics by accusing them of anti-Semitism are just as bad as he is. I don't dislike him because he's Jewish, I dislike him because of his support of open borders and ultra-leftist politics and his funding of disingenuous ultra-leftist groups.
Max not accusing you of anything but do you take the same attitude towards those who constantly get accused of anti semitism for sticking up for the rights of Palestinians?
I'm not really bothered either way tbh, I think Israel has the right to exist as a nation, but I also think Palestine does. Undermining the argument for the latter by accusing people who support it as anti-Semitic is definitely wrong, but unfortunately a lot of the time the people who support the latter also don't support Israel's right to exist as a nation which is anti-Semitic. It's not easy to filter between one group orthe other.
Freud would have a field day with the Brexiteers. Not content with seeking out a futile last stand against Brussels, they've now decided to give the bête noire of Black Wednesday a starring role in their psychodrama.
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Russia is 'Authoritarian' (#135) while Venezuela is #117. What surprised me was France in the list of 'Flawed Democracies' at #29 behind South Korea #20. The UK is #14, just behind Germany, with Spain (just) the only big European countries to make it into the 'Full Democracies' list.
http://pages.eiu.com/rs/753-RIQ-438/images/Democracy_Index_2017.pdf
It t is all speculative but many on here critise me for my support for TM during Brexit and even though 59% are unhappy she does seem to be receiving some respect from the public beyond the media bubble
Also cognitive dissonance because people think the negotiations are going badly but don't think that badness will have any real consequences. I wouldn't try to reconcile those positions. As I say, reality doesn't matter in opinion polling. You are asking people what they think because that drives election results.
The prospect outlined wouldn't be so bad if the government, for the next twenty or so years was likely to be anything other than gravely inadequate at best. For all the talk of Tom Tugenhadt or Johnny Mercer, what we will get is one or more of Davis, Gove, Johnson or JRM .
Perhaps this demonstrates Nick Timothy's genius. Engineer a hung parliament opposed by a resurgent Jeremy Corbyn, allowing a takeover by Momentum to ensure Labour are hamstrung for a generation or two.
Sterling is now back to the same level as it was with the dollar pre referendum while the FTSE and.other stocks are higher aren't they?
So have you really lost?
Hard to see how Corbyn or McDonnell can successfully outbid. The trust just won't be there. Another reason why, in due course, reality is going to set in on the Labour side...
It's a good poll for the Conservatives no question and perhaps speaks more to what voters really think than the daily round of Westminster gossip and the like.
I'm not convinced Labour's poll fall is down to its A50 policy - it is perhaps more a reflection of its failure to move from being a party of Opposition to a potential credible Party of Government. Opposing most of the things a Government proposes isn't difficult - you can find arguments for opposing most things.
The difficult bit is putting forward a credible alternative policy which isn't just "let's spend more money" which has only partial credibility at best.
The only time a Government gets into trouble is when it is politically or ideologically incapable of putting forward the credible alternative as its own policy and then the Opposition has a chance to steal a big advantage in a key area. I think the current Government is very weak on law and order and a strong Shadow Home Secretary could be making strong headway against Amber Rudd.
Let's not forget - Labour can be strong on law and order - I don't recall David Blunkett as being a shrinking violet on these issues. However, there seems little sign of that at this time.
Now, I will be told by one poster it's all down to Corbyn and if only "mainstream Labour" (and I don't know what that means) policies were followed the Party would be on its way to a landslide.
I'm not convinced - Corbyn is what he is and every Labour leader since and including Attlee has been personally vilified by the pro-Conservative press (as, in all fairness, have a few Conservative leaders as well). Whoever leads Labour will face a continuous attack on their character and every imperfection including how they eat a bacon sandwich is reflected and magnified to enhance their apparent unsuitability to be Prime Minister..
If I were advising Corbyn and the Shadow Cabinet, I'd start by telling them to imagine Britain in the 2020s after four years of Labour Government. What do they want to do ? What are the issues and problems preventing that happening and start backwards from the vision. For most voters, it isn't about Brexit but the day-to-day struggles of life. Corbyn needs to convince people it's not just about "the nasty Tories" but building something better for the future and making their own lives better. Offer a positive vision and you'd be surprised how popular it could be.
At the moment, few people are convinced their lives would be better and society and their communities would be better if Labour was in Government - that's the challenge.
Strangely enough, Labour won in 1997 by not offering a radical vision - they won simply by promising to manage the post-Thatcher order more fairly and efficiently than the Tories.
You don't have to be radical to win - you can and sometimes (1945 and 1979) it works but more often you win simply by showing you are less incompetent than the current Government.
https://order-order.com/2018/02/08/chukas-arrogant-leadership-plan-infuriated-remain-rivals/
"At 8.08, Spain’s score remains just above the threshold of 8 for full democracies,
having fallen significantly as a result of the national government’s attempt to stop by force Catalonia’s illegal referendum on independence on October 1st."
(Very interesting report btw. Thanks for highlighting it.)
"Offer a positive vision and you'd be surprised how popular it could be."
Who could learn from that then?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-42958465
Not actually about Northamptonshire in isolation but it's a complex and complicated issue and obviously much easier on here to banter about Brexit.
One in three Councils overspend and it's not a party political problem - South Hams, the worst offender, has a huge Conservative majority. It's a combination of increased demand, reductions in funding, poor internal financial management (in some cases) and the inability (via legislation) to apply the kind of Council Tax increases which would allow the funding gaps to be closed locally.
The main problem, I think, was the absurd decision in 2010 to ring-fence aspects of public expenditure from the austerity being applied elsewhere. Some parts of the public finances have carried a disproportionately heavy load for the reduction in the overall deficit and unfortunately where areas of growing demand (adult social care) are in those areas the demand to reduce the national deficit has coincided with a huge rise in demand for that service.
That was foreseeable - the demographic changes were well known long before 2010 - but the Coalition and now the Conservatives on their own have failed to recognise or properly address these concerns (I'd also add the growing demand for school places which might be argued as a direct impact from economic policy).
During the past year the trend towards the concentration of media ownership has continued apace in France, with the result that the links between journalists and political/economic interests have become closer. France provides a salutary reminder of how easily media independence can be compromised by such links, having experienced several con icts of interest in recent years. Media pluralism and reliability of the news have been put in doubt......
Decades of decline in the quality of democracy have swelled support for anti-establishment parties in western Europe, both on the left and on the right. In major elections in France, the Netherlands and Germany two-round or proportional voting systems helped to keep radical parties out of officein 2017. However, the underlying problem of mainstream parties’ failure to address the concerns and insecurities of younger and working-class voters remains unresolved. This will continue to sustain anti-establishment sentiment for the foreseeable future, tempting some mainstream parties to adopt illiberal stances to counter the rise of the populists...
..Finally, France became subject to greater social and political polarisation in 2017, despite the defeat of the far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, by the centrist president, Emmanuel Macron, in May. Also the incorporation of state of emergency powers into the body of French law presents a potential threat to the rights and freedoms of many groups in France, and not only potential terrorist groups or individuals.
https://twitter.com/halfon4harlowMP/status/961533037853986821
https://twitter.com/EricPickles/status/961521208855580673
Ho ho, this is one of those tweets that both reports an anti-Corbyn line, and perpetuates one
Mind you alot of news does that these days...
I was fascinated to hear VInce Cable on Marr last weekend moving away from the rather anti-democratic "we're going to stop Brexit" to a more nuanced line about ensuring it works for the country, adequate safeguards etc.
It is the uncertainty of not knowing what the outcome of the A50 negotiations will be that makes policy making in Opposition more difficult - it's not so much a question of overplaying your hand as not even knowing what cards you have.
Both Labour and the LDs (and indeed some Conservatives) will have to shape their future direction against what comes out of A50. That's why Labour is silent - it is waiting to see which direction May and Davis go.
Therein lies May and Davis's dilemma. Go too "soft" and face a barrage from your own side, go too "hard" and face a barrage from the Opposition AND some on your own side.
There is the potential for a future Government to re-negotiate the terms of the economic relationship with the EU. That would be a credible position (as distinct from "let's rejoin") and in essence what successive Governments have done since 1973.
SNP 30
Con 29
Lab 26
LD 8
Greens 4
UKIP 2
When is project fear 3.0 being rolled out ?
Whether or not Nick T's specific article was antisemitic does not stop the general right wing distaste for George Soros having problematic antisemitic undertones (which it does).
The really extraordinary thing against this poll, which is part of a pattern, is that this is a terrible time for the Tories. They are squabbling in public, some of them are threatening coups, Theresa May isnt very popular, the NHS is in crisis, its the most depressing part of Winter. Labour should have a double digit lead. Yet it is three points behind.
Set it into context. Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead. Neil Kinnock at one point was 20 points ahead.
Remainers are not going to go to the Tories, the most pro Brexit party because Corbyn is ambivalent. People are going to the Tories because Jeremy Corbyn is a hard left extremist, unfit to be prime minister, and they are beginning to realise that after June 2017 he stands a chance of winning.
There will be other polls, putting Labour ahead, butLabour is heading for a famous defeat in 2022.
If such a swing exists then we should see it next week, all things being equal.
Yesterdays YG JWNBPM
So the implication of your question is that Russia has interfered in US elections before, and the question is whether they had stopped for that election.
I suspect following Labours unexpected good showing they gained a bit of a boost - which was temporary. Much like Brexit, I suspect the voters have not changed their minds.
Mr Soros is certainly not to blame for the UK entering the ERM with an overvalued sterling, but Major's defence of the pound resulted in the base rate briefly hitting 15%. Given that mortgage deals were typically base rate + n%, this caused a certain amount of huffing into a paper bag hereabouts.
Labour aren't going to get rid of Corbyn because he is a few points behind the Conservatives in the polls.
I would also point out that Corbyn's EU stance has been complained about ever since the chicken coup, the idea it has suddenly gained traction seems unlikely.
Also I would suggest, going by past experience, Dan Hodges, Conservative voter, is not the best judge of Labour leaders.
Both parties have substantial minorities to consider - the Conservatives will rely on innate loyalty and a fear of Corbyn to keep their REMAIN supporters on side.
The other problem is when we leave the EU formally the REMAIN position becomes redundant unless it morphs into "in Government we will seek to re-negotiate a better deal for the UK than May and her group of blundering halfwits has accomplished".
Sonia Sodha"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/08/home-state-economy-austerity-family-life-social-care
You will be considered anti semitic if you stick up for Palestinians.
The problem is if you start labelling people like Corbyn anti semites then people will struggle to believe you when you point to real anti semites.
Although I guess that is only actually a problem if the people repeating the smears actually cared about anti semitism more than smearing Corbyn, shameful.
One of the rules of British politics in the last two decades has been UK governments get a bump in the polls when standing up to bureaucrats in Brussels.
Oh.
Men:
May: 38 (0)
Corbyn: 31 (+5)
Women:
May: 36 (+6)
Corbyn: 28 (-3)
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/961546408900915200
EDIT: Do we think Momentum does "gnawing doubt"?
Mind you I doubt the long run Tory score looks to be about 41 to me with Labour on 42.
More evidence needed to see if this is a trend or the polls will revert to the last 6 month norm.
It’s obviously silly to expect another 25 point swing - but I think the arguments that he is electoral poison/disaster/suicide have been disproven.
Evidence that a pro-Eu stance means an uptick in polling is thin on the ground.
Also authentic and natural on TV.
Someone like Dave?
https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/sterling-my-part-its-downfall
Osborne was very focused on discrediting Ed milibands slightly more left wing world view than his own and won that battle of ideas come 2015. At the moment the Tories are allowing the mad maomentum world view to gain credence despite the evidence of history showing us it doesn't work.
It's not an explanation which will appeal to the (mostly male) conservative commentariat - and those on the left would find the idea uncomfortable, but it could be what explains the poll shift.
It's a good stick to beat Jezza with because he doesn't support the mistreatment of the Palestinians.
But can you see the risks of labeling people racist out of political convenience?
Think immigration concerns and people getting labelled racist.
Now if anti semitism isn't actually the concern but smears are then the position makes sense.
Normal caveats about sub samples - but I guess men and women are quite-large sub samples(!?)
General election in the Spring?
#letsnotgothere
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/961512562159439873