https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/961211109515591680

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

The GFA does not commit the UK, or any part of it, to remain in the EU, nor to economic harmonisation with the Irish Republic,

Currently, Northern Ireland has a separate currency to the Irish Republic, a separate legal system, different levels of taxation, different employment and planning laws, and a host of distinctions that stand in the way of creating a single economy on the island of Ireland. Yet, for some reason, a few customs posts are supposed to be a deal-breaker.

The phase one agreement commits us to:

1) support North-South cooperation
2) support the all-island economy
3) uphold the GFA

Those are separate strands, which taken together mean there can be no backsliding on the level of economic integration that currently exists.

That's open to interpretation. After all, when Ireland adopted the Euro, in 1999, it was introducing a degree of economic divergence from the UK, which did not adopt the Euro.

That was when only one of those strands applied: the GFA.

And If President Macron's proposals for EZ budgets and an EZ Finance Minister were adopted by the EZ, that would be a further divergence between EZ and non-EZ countries, but I think it would be silly for us to argue that this was placing Ireland in breach of the GFA.

The phase one agreement is broader than the GFA and places constraints on the UK, not vice-versa.

So, they can do a broad sweep of things like adopt a different currency, or integrate (say) a la Macron into a more unified tax harmonised Europe, but we can't do anything at all without their explicit say so. Hmm...

And people wonder why a majority of us voted to leave?

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

The GFA does not commit the UK, or any part of it, to remain in the EU, nor to economic harmonisation with the Irish Republic,

Currently, Northern Ireland has a separate currency to the Irish Republic, a separate legal system, different levels of taxation, different employment and planning laws, and a host of distinctions that stand in the way of creating a single economy on the island of Ireland. Yet, for some reason, a few customs posts are supposed to be a deal-breaker.

The phase one agreement commits us to:

1) support North-South cooperation
2) support the all-island economy
3) uphold the GFA

Those are separate strands, which taken together mean there can be no backsliding on the level of economic integration that currently exists.

That's open to interpretation. After all, when Ireland adopted the Euro, in 1999, it was introducing a degree of economic divergence from the UK, which did not adopt the Euro.

That was when only one of those strands applied: the GFA.

And If President Macron's proposals for EZ budgets and an EZ Finance Minister were adopted by the EZ, that would be a further divergence between EZ and non-EZ countries, but I think it would be silly for us to argue that this was placing Ireland in breach of the GFA.

The phase one agreement is broader than the GFA and places constraints on the UK, not vice-versa.

So, they can do a broad sweep of things like adopt a different currency, or integrate (say) a la Macron into a more unified tax harmonised Europe, but we can't do anything at all without their explicit say so. Hmm...

And people wonder why a majority of us voted to leave?

This asymmetric situation has been created by your vote to leave.

philiph said:

Anorak said:

philiph said:

Anorak said:

philiph said:

I tend to see things differently.

The heart of the problem, I think.

I see the basic choices as simple.
FOM or SM
FTAs or CU

Am I wrong, or are those the binary choices that we have?

Agreeing on them and then working to implement is the hard bit.
I haven't even expressed a preference for one or the other!

Both questions are far from binary. My original point was that waving away something as easy to do has little credibility from a group - and yes, I'm lumping you with the Leaver 'blob' here - given past assurances. Remember the German car industry, and the global hoards desperate to give us FTAs. Still waiting...

Not me Guv on the Germans

I don't understand how they are not binary.
We understand that FOM and SM are indivisible. For SM you have FOM
It is difficult to argue against membership of CU precludes FTAs outside that CU.

Well for a start "the" CU does not preclude membership of "a" CU which could take myriad forms.

CarlottaVance said:

tlg86 said:

Are more people committing violent offences because police budgets have been cut? Burglary, speeding on a motorway, I can perhaps understand - i.e. less likely to get caught. But violent crime? I can't believe that's got anything to do with budget cuts.

Or is it because Police reporting is getting better? The Crime Survey says crime is going down....

Police discover that under recording crime has some unfortunate consequences....

David_Evershed said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

stevef said:

Sorry Jeremy, but the majority of Suffragettes were middle class, -like you- not working class. Not done your research again.

Also, millions of working class men got the vote in 1918.

Granted by a Liberal PM and thereafter Labour replaced the Liberals.

One of the more remarkable features of the interwar period was how despite the quadrupling of the electorate, the Tories dominated politically, with only the briefest moments out of power. Between Baldwin and Chamberlain they masterfully modernised the Tory party away from aristocrats towards middle class suburbia and market towns. A massive housebuilding and orientation to modern industries such as radio, motoring and air helped achieve this.

Elon Musk's SpaceX rocket heading towards asteroid belt after overshooting Mars' orbit

His cherry-red Tesla, carrying a dummy and blasting Bowie's Life on Mars, was supposed to take a path around the Sun which would take it out into Mars' orbit.

It appears the super-strong rocket, with twice the firing power of any before it, overshot that trajectory and is has now pushed the Tesla into an orbit which extends into the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/07/elon-musks-spacex-rocket-heading-towards-asteroid-belt-overshooting/

Do Direct Line cover such accidents?

Facebook hired a full-time pollster to monitor Zuckerberg’s approval ratings

https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/6/16976328/facebook-mark-zuckerberg-pollster-tavis-mcginn-honest-data

FrancisUrquhart said:

Facebook hired a full-time pollster to monitor Zuckerberg’s approval ratings

https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/6/16976328/facebook-mark-zuckerberg-pollster-tavis-mcginn-honest-data

can't think why.

Dennis Skinner in PMQs has just described the Blair government as the "golden age of the NHS", when the NHS received more money than ever before.

Hold on! I am confused. I thought the Corbynista hard left regarded the Blair period as a time of "Tory Lite" treachery. I thought they regarded Blair as just another Tory. Now they are praising him to the skies as presiding over the NHS Golden Age.

stevef said:

Dennis Skinner in PMQs has just described the Blair government as the "golden age of the NHS", when the NHS received more money than ever before.

Hold on! I am confused. I thought the Corbynista hard left regarded the Blair period as a time of "Tory Lite" treachery. I thought they regarded Blair as just another Tory. Now they are praising him to the skies as presiding over the NHS Golden Age.

Didn't Skinner actually support Blair and what he was doing quite a lot? Or have I misremembered.

stevef said:

Dennis Skinner in PMQs has just described the Blair government as the "golden age of the NHS", when the NHS received more money than ever before.

Hold on! I am confused. I thought the Corbynista hard left regarded the Blair period as a time of "Tory Lite" treachery. I thought they regarded Blair as just another Tory. Now they are praising him to the skies as presiding over the NHS Golden Age.

Red Tory!

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/961214540292743168

rottenborough said:

stevef said:

Dennis Skinner in PMQs has just described the Blair government as the "golden age of the NHS", when the NHS received more money than ever before.

Hold on! I am confused. I thought the Corbynista hard left regarded the Blair period as a time of "Tory Lite" treachery. I thought they regarded Blair as just another Tory. Now they are praising him to the skies as presiding over the NHS Golden Age.

Didn't Skinner actually support Blair and what he was doing quite a lot? Or have I misremembered.

Apparently Jeremy Corbyn -who voted against every EU treaty for 30 years, now thinks Blair is right about the EU. He also supports Blair on tax credits. And the NHS. Maybe he should invite Blair to join the shadow cabinet....................

From the Guardian...

PMQs - Snap verdict: That was the sort of routine, points-win that Corbyn achieves quite regularly these days - by asking focused questions about public spending quotes, buttressed by awkward quotes from Tories or Tory-types - but what made this a bit special was that this was a win on what has traditionally been a key Conservative battleground. When Corbyn was elected Labour leader, his supporters would have expected him to do well at PMQs on health or housing, but it would have taken a brave call to predict him winning on law and order. Yet at the general election one of the turning points in the campaign came when the terror attacks gave Labour the opportunity to hammer May and her government over police cuts (Tory and Labour strategist both assumed at the time that the attacks would benefit May, but in fact the opposite seems to have happened) and this afternoon Corbyn successfully resurrected those arguments. It was risky, because as a former home secretary May is much more confident on this ground than on others and her push-back on the increase in recorded crime (‘because I pushed for that as home secretary’, she claimed) was effective. She could also parry Corbyn’s attack on knife crime. But her overall weakness was exposed by the fact that she had to resort to quoting Andy Burnham, who is now longer even an MP, to defend herself against the charge she has has cut police spending. It didn’t work.

Always hard to say what swung opinion one way or the other, but again, I don't think a suicide bomber would have been too worried about police cuts.

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Elon Musk's SpaceX rocket heading towards asteroid belt after overshooting Mars' orbit

His cherry-red Tesla, carrying a dummy and blasting Bowie's Life on Mars, was supposed to take a path around the Sun which would take it out into Mars' orbit.

It appears the super-strong rocket, with twice the firing power of any before it, overshot that trajectory and is has now pushed the Tesla into an orbit which extends into the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/07/elon-musks-spacex-rocket-heading-towards-asteroid-belt-overshooting/

Do Direct Line cover such accidents?

My God thats a terrible article.

The car didn't "overshoot" anything, the mission profile was basically to push it into as big an orbit as possible.

But the real howler is this.

"The inventor's rockets are twice as strong as the Saturn V rockets, which carried men to the moon during the Apollo era."

Oh dear oh dear oh dear.

Taps mic, sniff sniff, FAKE NEWS....

CarlottaVance said:

tlg86 said:

Are more people committing violent offences because police budgets have been cut? Burglary, speeding on a motorway, I can perhaps understand - i.e. less likely to get caught. But violent crime? I can't believe that's got anything to do with budget cuts.

Or is it because Police reporting is getting better? The Crime Survey says crime is going down....

Im going to guess it’s because of the motorbike mugging gangs, who the police won’t chase in case the criminals get injured.

They’ll have a high reporting race because of the need for insurance claims, and snatching a phone or bag from the owner is probably recorded as a crime of violence.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

stevef said:

Dennis Skinner in PMQs has just described the Blair government as the "golden age of the NHS", when the NHS received more money than ever before.

Hold on! I am confused. I thought the Corbynista hard left regarded the Blair period as a time of "Tory Lite" treachery. I thought they regarded Blair as just another Tory. Now they are praising him to the skies as presiding over the NHS Golden Age.

Red Tory!

twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/961214540292743168

I have to say, I am still in shock to have seen man of the people Dennis in the posh seats at the Royal Albert Hall for Cirque du Soleil. I would have thought he would have been disgusted by a load of overpriced pouncyboots circus acts for the bourgeoisie.

stevef said:

Dennis Skinner in PMQs has just described the Blair government as the "golden age of the NHS", when the NHS received more money than ever before.

Hold on! I am confused. I thought the Corbynista hard left regarded the Blair period as a time of "Tory Lite" treachery. I thought they regarded Blair as just another Tory. Now they are praising him to the skies as presiding over the NHS Golden Age.

Wow it's almost as if governments can have good elements and bad elements! Fascinating!

philiph said:

Anorak said:

philiph said:

Anorak said:

philiph said:

Anorak said:

philiph said:

I tend to see things differently.

The heart of the problem, I think.

I see the basic choices as simple.
FOM or SM
FTAs or CU

Am I wrong, or are those the binary choices that we have?

Agreeing on them and then working to implement is the hard bit.
I haven't even expressed a preference for one or the other!

Both questions are far from binary. My original point was that waving away something as easy to do has little credibility from a group - and yes, I'm lumping you with the Leaver 'blob' here - given past assurances. Remember the German car industry, and the global hoards desperate to give us FTAs. Still waiting...

Not me Guv on the Germans

I don't understand how they are not binary.
We understand that FOM and SM are indivisible. For SM you have FOM
It is difficult to argue against membership of CU precludes FTAs outside that CU.

Well for a start "the" CU does not preclude membership of "a" CU which could take myriad forms.

Good to know it is a multifaceted thing, this CU, it should therefore be malleable and made to work in lots of different scenarios.

Turkey is in "a" customs union with the EU, and its goods move without tariffs or internal checks. Crucially, this means there are no Rules of Origin for goods that go from Turkey to the EU or vice versa.

However, Turkey is not in "the" Customs Union and has its own Free Trade Agreements, that are different to the EU's.

This does, in theory, mean that goods could be exported from Pakistan to Turkey (who have an FTA) and then onto the EU. However, in practice this doesn't happen because Turkey is geographically separate from the rest of the EU, and because Pakistan is not a big exporter of things which incur high tariffs. (Remember: the average EU external tariff is only 2.7%.)

rcs1000 said:

This does, in theory, mean that goods could be exported from Pakistan to Turkey (who have an FTA) and then onto the EU. However, in practice this doesn't happen because Turkey is geographically separate from the rest of the EU, and because Pakistan is not a big exporter of things which incur high tariffs. (Remember: the average EU external tariff is only 2.7%.)

Turkey does have a 446km land border with the EU.

rcs1000 said:

philiph said:

Anorak said:

philiph said:

Anorak said:

philiph said:

Anorak said:

philiph said:

I tend to see things differently.

The heart of the problem, I think.

I see the basic choices as simple.
FOM or SM
FTAs or CU

Am I wrong, or are those the binary choices that we have?

Agreeing on them and then working to implement is the hard bit.
I haven't even expressed a preference for one or the other!

Both questions are far from binary. My original point was that waving away something as easy to do has little credibility from a group - and yes, I'm lumping you with the Leaver 'blob' here - given past assurances. Remember the German car industry, and the global hoards desperate to give us FTAs. Still waiting...

Not me Guv on the Germans

I don't understand how they are not binary.
We understand that FOM and SM are indivisible. For SM you have FOM
It is difficult to argue against membership of CU precludes FTAs outside that CU.

Well for a start "the" CU does not preclude membership of "a" CU which could take myriad forms.

Good to know it is a multifaceted thing, this CU, it should therefore be malleable and made to work in lots of different scenarios.

Turkey is in "a" customs union with the EU, and its goods move without tariffs or internal checks. Crucially, this means there are no Rules of Origin for goods that go from Turkey to the EU or vice versa.

However, Turkey is not in "the" Customs Union and has its own Free Trade Agreements, that are different to the EU's.

This does, in theory, mean that goods could be exported from Pakistan to Turkey (who have an FTA) and then onto the EU. However, in practice this doesn't happen because Turkey is geographically separate from the rest of the EU, and because Pakistan is not a big exporter of things which incur high tariffs. (Remember: the average EU external tariff is only 2.7%.)

Turkey borders Greece and Bulgaria!

stevef said:

Dennis Skinner in PMQs has just described the Blair government as the "golden age of the NHS", when the NHS received more money than ever before.

Hold on! I am confused. I thought the Corbynista hard left regarded the Blair period as a time of "Tory Lite" treachery. I thought they regarded Blair as just another Tory. Now they are praising him to the skies as presiding over the NHS Golden Age.

Skinner was never that anti Blair, as Blair acknowledged in his autobiography Skinner was always a fan of anyone who beat the Tories and that included Blair. Skinner is partisan Labour above all

Freggles said:

stevef said:

Dennis Skinner in PMQs has just described the Blair government as the "golden age of the NHS", when the NHS received more money than ever before.

Hold on! I am confused. I thought the Corbynista hard left regarded the Blair period as a time of "Tory Lite" treachery. I thought they regarded Blair as just another Tory. Now they are praising him to the skies as presiding over the NHS Golden Age.

Wow it's almost as if governments can have good elements and bad elements! Fascinating!

Always confusing when people don't live up to one's stereotypes. I served alongside Skinner and we voted for the overwhelming majority of Blair's policies, and have no regrets about most of them. In particular, I'm glad that we rescued the NHS from the pre-1997 slump, and look forward to our doing it again, especially if "lifelong Labour supporter" stevef and others of similar mind actually support us when it comes to it.

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

If there is no agreement, the EU will follow WTO rules, which it is obliged to do; as is the UK, of course.

The WTO rules do not, as far as I know, make any statement at all about the administrative procedures at borders, and certainly doesn't mandate physical checkpoints. I might be wrong; if so, I'd be interested to see a link to any authoritative source which says otherwise.

WTO rules state that there can be no discriminatory treatment. Thus, if there is no specific agreement otherwise the EU will need to apply to the Irish border what it applies to its other external borders.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm

Same for the UK, of course.

That doesn't say anything about administrative processes or physical checkpoints. (And of course for the UK at least, we don't have any other land borders, so it's an entirely hypothetical question).

Cyclefree said:

Anyway I’m off for a bit.

Goodwill to all.

It’s my birthday today and it is far too beautiful a day to spend it staring at a screen. The birds are singing, the sun is shining and there is champagne to be drunk.

Bye!!!

Have a great time!

Cyclefree said:

Anyway I’m off for a bit.

Goodwill to all.

It’s my birthday today and it is far too beautiful a day to spend it staring at a screen. The birds are singing, the sun is shining and there is champagne to be drunk.

Bye!!!

Happy Birthday Ms Cyclefree. I shall take the hounds for a stroll in the beautiful Quantocks and muse on why I spend so much time arguing on the Internet .

FF43 said:

Anorak said:

Well for a start "the" CU does not preclude membership of "a" CU which could take myriad forms.

Not really. A Customs Union has a specific meaning under GATT/WTO rules, as do Free Trade Agreements:
*snip*

See rcs1000 comment few down on the arrangement between Turkey and the EU.

HYUFD said:

stevef said:

Dennis Skinner in PMQs has just described the Blair government as the "golden age of the NHS", when the NHS received more money than ever before.

Hold on! I am confused. I thought the Corbynista hard left regarded the Blair period as a time of "Tory Lite" treachery. I thought they regarded Blair as just another Tory. Now they are praising him to the skies as presiding over the NHS Golden Age.

Skinner was never that anti Blair, as Blair acknowledged in his autobiography Skinner was always a fan of anyone who beat the Tories and that included Blair. Skinner is partisan Labour above all

Skinner is:

Skinner 1st
Party 2nd
Country 3rd

When was this 'golden age' for the NHS. Was it when Blair/Brown signed all those PFI deals that are causing us all the problems and costs today?

Do Labour seriously want to make that mistake again?

MarkHopkins said:

When was this 'golden age' for the NHS. Was it when Blair/Brown signed all those PFI deals that are causing us all the problems and costs today?

Do Labour seriously want to make that mistake again?

And let's not forget:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2006/apr/26/publicservices.uk

or this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-432833/Labour-MPs-challenges-Blair-GPs-contracts.html

or this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stafford_Hospital_scandal

While we're on the subject of Ireland:
https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/961213247612510208

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0207/938985-economy-growth-forecasts/

https://twitter.com/JensenClan88/status/961084531758346240

TheScreamingEagles said:

twitter.com/JensenClan88/status/961084531758346240

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/961038807658352640

Has anybody told him he isn't with us anymore?

Jezza, tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime...

Corbyn confirmed his strong grasp of basic law and order policy at PMQs:

“I am very clear that crime is of course wrong.”

In an exchange about knife crime he went on to suggest “rehabilitation” and “community service orders.” Jail?

Anorak said:

FF43 said:

Anorak said:

FF43 said:

Anorak said:

Well for a start "the" CU does not preclude membership of "a" CU which could take myriad forms.

Not really. A Customs Union has a specific meaning under GATT/WTO rules, as do Free Trade Agreements:
*snip*

See rcs1000 comment few down on the arrangement between Turkey and the EU.

Fun fact: The Turkey / EU Customs union is not WTO* compliant because it doesn't cover agriculture. They have an obligation to bring it in line since GATT days (the CU has its origins in the 1960's before the advent of the WTO).

So it is not, and never could be, an option for the UK?

Fun fact? Your parties must be a hoot

Correct . On both points! I think we would want to include agriculture, but I suspect that's why Norway never joined a CU with the EU and I know that's at least partly why Switzerland never did. Their farmers are protected even beyond the EU ones.

Richard_Nabavi said:

MarkHopkins said:

When was this 'golden age' for the NHS. Was it when Blair/Brown signed all those PFI deals that are causing us all the problems and costs today?

Do Labour seriously want to make that mistake again?

And let's not forget:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2006/apr/26/publicservices.uk

or this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-432833/Labour-MPs-challenges-Blair-GPs-contracts.html

or this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stafford_Hospital_scandal

Everyone I’ve ever spoken to in the health sector has had plenty of criticisms of Labour.
But they all think things are worse now.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Is it my imagination or are there more gaps on the Commons benches today?

Nobody really gives a toss about PMQs any more. Theresa is very poor at them, has been since day one and doesn't seem to improve. But if you've a limited (very limited?) shelf life as PM, not much point in getting training to do them right.

MarkHopkins said:

When was this 'golden age' for the NHS. Was it when Blair/Brown signed all those PFI deals that are causing us all the problems and costs today?

That and the small matter of borrowing so much at the height of a financial bubble it triggered the EU's excessive deficit procedures repeatedly from 2001-2007.

The Ulsterification of UK politics.

https://twitter.com/CMonaghanSNP/status/961213014438563840

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/961168120982491136

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Given we're talking about Northern Ireland, can I suggest that we follow the example of Büsingen am Hochrhein.

The wikipedia link is well worth a read.

Special status that would place Northern Ireland economically within the EU customs area has always been a viable and coherent approach, but the DUP won't wear it.

One that puts a trade barrier between Northern Ireland and its biggest market is 'viable & coherent'?

It's a view......

It seems you doubt the depth and specialness of the deal May will be able to negotiate.

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Given we're talking about Northern Ireland, can I suggest that we follow the example of Büsingen am Hochrhein.

The wikipedia link is well worth a read.

Special status that would place Northern Ireland economically within the EU customs area has always been a viable and coherent approach, but the DUP won't wear it.

One that puts a trade barrier between Northern Ireland and its biggest market is 'viable & coherent'?

It's a view......

If you have no decent options, beyond the one you voted to reject, you have to choose between the indecent ones. Logic, yeah?

Edit. Maybe not quite. There is the possibility of CU+SM applying across the UK, which I think is the best remaining option for everyone. But if you don't agree, then going that route simply to keep Northern Ireland sane might seem like the tail wagging the dog.

Regarding the thread, I totally agree.

However, there is one further factor which should give Labour cause for concern. There is a pattern going back many elections now in which the major party which underperformed against the last set of final polls ends up overperforming against the final polls in the subsequent GE.

Thus, in terms of Labour:

2005 Labour underperformed relative to the Tories (i.e. only a 3% gap in the popular vote, more had been predicted)
2010 Labour overperformed (having been expected to tie with the LDs)
2015 Labour underperformed
2017 Labour overperformed

The pattern is due to polling companies changing their methodology to reflect the error in the last general election on the assumption that the same circumstances will apply in the next, when in fact they don't.

So if Labour overperformed against the polls in 2017, and the polling companies have since changed their methodology, it is folly for Corbynites to assume that the party can pull off the same trick in 2022 (or whenever).

williamglenn said:

While we're on the subject of Ireland:
https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/961213247612510208

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0207/938985-economy-growth-forecasts/

Ireland’s GDP grew 10.5% in the year to Q4 2017
https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/gdp-growth-annual
Hint: there’s a small number of very large international companies that have a massive effect on Ireland’s GDP numbers.