politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember this cringe making TMay effort from GE17?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember this cringe making TMay effort from GE17?
If any CON MPs is still deciding whether or not to send Graham Brady a letter then they should check the above TMay “news conference” from the closing stages of the GE2017 campaign.
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The LibDems are just treading water under Vince, and this won't change. Meanwhile there ought to be a tremendous opportunity arising from the circumstances set out in the lead.
"Big mistake for LAB to assume that the Tories will be piss-poor again"
Or .... Big mistake for PB to assume that the Tories will even achieve the dizzying heights of awfulness as 2017.
Now there really is a thought ..
My consolation is that Mrs May doesn’t have an obvious replacement that would be any better, and at least it’s not my party’s leaders hanging out with the antisemites.
What I always find most impressive about Anna Soubry is that she never tries to duck or dodge answering any question put to her even if it's going to be uncomfortable for herself or for her own side. That's a quality almost extinct in politics now. Indeed, she takes great care to ensure that she answers questions fully, she communicates her opinions very clearly and she thinks at lightning speed. She's also a very natural and entertaining orator.
The Stuart line is presently held by Frank, Duke of Bavaria, who is unmarried and will be succeeded by his younger brother.
On the death of Henry IX in 1807 the male line was extinguished and the claim passed to the House of Savoy through the line of the youngest daughter of Charles I - Henrietta Anne. No senior line Stuart has made a claim to the throne since 1807.
Btw, JackW knows very well who the current Stuart heir to the throne is, but would be far too modest to mention.
Have a good day....what's left of it.
Maybe she knows that however bad it may sound, it's better than actually attempting to give a proper answer.
But the chronically Corbyn-allergic, rather than correcting their flawed and outdated view of the political landscape that was exposed in June 2017, are now twisting themselves in knots to try and ignore their mistakes.
The idea that somehow the Tories and their press mouthpieces didn't ferociously attack Corbyn and his policies for weeks with every piece of ammunition on hand (most of it misleading or borderline fabricated) is just wishful thinking of the highest order. They did that last time, and it didn't work, because a lot of people aren't listening any more, or were more receptive to other views of the world than that extraordinarily narrow one offered up by the spear-carriers of feral Tory England.
OMG, you are staying with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia in Riyadh!
The Tories may not know how to govern, they may be buggering up Brexit, but they can recognise a gift horse when it looks them in the mouth. May is so bad that she cannot defeat a party led by privileged ex-public school Marxists who embrace anti-Semites and other elements of the fascist left, but there are others in her party who are not so abysmal.
If the Tories skip a generation and choose a leader who does not scare off Remainers, they have every chance of winning the next general election.
And who is this mythical young sexy Tory who is going to magically make everyone forget about why they are thoroughly sick of the party?
(Of course, the issue they have to overcome is Corbyn's high vote, not a low Tory vote - they have cornered the demented end of the demographic come what may it seems)
Next time the horror stories will not be about Venezuela or what Corbyn did in the 1980s, but about Momentum-run Labour councils and Holocaust-denying Labour members. If the Tories choose a moderate leader untainted by Brexit they’ll be laughing all the way to a majority.
That is a big if, mind. Tory members give every impression of being as blind to reality as Labour ones if their Jacob Rees Mogg love-in is anything to go by.
Hypothecated tax for health replacing NI
I'm not a member of Momentum and pretty active in my local party, and your characterisation of the workings of the party are as alien to my experience as anything out of the Daily Mail or Express.
And 'while bringing in assorted anti-Semites' - care to give an example?
Didn't see or hear Vince promoting it though.
Getting elected however is one thing, but doing what is best for the country is quite another. Neither Party shows much interest in doing that, but I guess as long as it is in opposition, Labour has rather more excuse than the Tories.
(Last guess, OKC. You are somewhere on the Deccan.)
As for the anyi-Semitism - do me a favour.
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/961005172020391938
It's weird. In many respects it reminds me of politics before the SDP was launched but there is absolutely no sign of it. Where are the Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams and David Owens of our days? (Sorry Bill, forgot you yet again)
Will somebody please let me know if and when OKC is properly located.
Toodle pip.
Sun.
Oh dear - sleazy LDs - who'd have thought it?
The City of Bangkok is currently experiencing the last knockings of a cold front which has moved down from China, and consequently it's environs are enjoying something akin to what the SE of England is supposed to enjoy in June.
It's really very pleasant indeed here at the moment, although it's due to warm up, and become much sultrier, in a day or so.
And no I'm not following in SeanT's footprints or whatever trail he left.
I hope you're successful re Ludlow. Nice little town in it's own right!
1979 is a more salutary example. Compared to 1974 (which is still the third party highwater mark in much of the country), the two parties had moved further apart - the Tories under early Thatcher and Labour with Callaghan and Healey trying to keep a lid on the left. The Liberals under Steel went into the election with high hopes, based on the 'gap in the centre', which they explicitly pitched for ("The Real Fight is for Britain"), yet the 1979 result was one of the low points of the third-party recovery.
A bit like reality TV, even when there's a horrible choice to make, the evidence suggests people would nevertheless rather participate.
It would take something truly dramatic to re-create Macron in the UK - and the potential scenarios all seem very far fetched. The most likely of an unlikely bunch IMO is that Brexit is clearly heading for the rocks, public opinion is increasingly hostile, yet the majority of the Tory party wants to press ahead, and the moderate wing splits off to join the LibDems in stopping the whole enterprise. Unlikely, as I say.
Much as I like Anna, she sadly isn't the next messiah.
The first factor certainly won't be present at the next election as Labour's current policy makes Brexit a fait accompli and Corbyn' s chances can't be written off. The second and third may be, but It's dangerous to rely on your opponents to make the same mistakes.
https://twitter.com/brianelects/status/961142114716475392
2. Fear of the Tory ultras running things may well be higher, given their rising ascendency (all the PB Tories thinking they are the answer...);
3. If the economic outcome/short-term hit from Brexit is poor, the Tories will again struggle to have anything positive to say about the economy.
Plus the challenges May set out on taking office remain unaddressed (the 'causes of Brexit') and all the signs are that her powerlessness in the face of vested interest within the Tory party will mean that this remains the case.
Not that I'm arguing this is likely, but things can always get worse.
Is it fake news to some extent or is Corbyn just showing even less judgement than usual?
I have to get to work. Have a good morning.
Labour aren't complacent IMO. They've been door knocking in January . Lots of organisation and fundraising going on.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/feb/07/first-modern-britons-dark-black-skin-cheddar-man-dna-analysis-reveals
And wine. The price here is astronomical even for locally produced stuff, a little at least of which isn't bad. Apparently the beer and spirits industry is 'worried' about the locals getting a taste for wine, so lobby for an extortionate tax. Paid around £13 the other day for some very average Primitivo.
Jezza ran a very successful campaign, but almost by accident. May was and is dire, but even so started with a massive lead.
At election announcement it was widely predicted that Labour would be obliterated and ended the campaign gaining seats and on 40%. If it was purely a dire Tory campaign, then those votes could have gone to a number of parties: LD, Green, SNP, PC, even UKIP.
They didn't, they went to Jezza. Why? Because his campaign was based on hope not fear, and a view of a better society with less intergenerational injustice, and for better, more collective institutions.
The Tories need to stop being complacent themselves. Britons liked what Jezza said and did.
And I also don’t swallow the obvious desperate attempt to conflate being ferociously critical of Israel’s appalling crimes against humanity (which any non-sociopathic human should be) with being anti-semitic.
It'd take some effort to be quite as piss-poor again. Not impossible, but some effort.
Mr. kle4, women, sorry, wopeople need to be educated.
Edited extra bit: oh, and my pre-test ramble's up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/02/early-pre-season-musings.html
Bingo. This is the simple small fact that all of the Westminste bubble interpreters of the election and post-election landscape are desperate to skirt around.
Though I must say the ones round my way seem very fired up and organised, pushing arguments hard and getting some attention. Kudos to their effort.
I was hoping the appalling duplicitous likes of Mann and Streeting, who do so much to damage their party, would have been shut up by that al-Jazeera documentary, but no, still a stuck record.
Corbyn's well placed for next time, and his leading an improvement cannot be ignored, but it shouldn't be oversold as though future victory is inevitable, even if tories should not ignore the possibility to their peril.
Staying inside the EU Customs Union after ceasing to be a Member State would necessarily entail a severe and continuing curtailment of the UK’s powers to govern itself as an independent state and would subject it to the continuing effective jurisdiction of the ECJ. In particular:
1. The UK would be obliged to operate a system of external tariffs according to the Common Customs Tariff decided by the EU, and would be obliged to follow future changes made to the Common Tariff, while not having a vote on those changes.
2. The UK would not be allowed to enter in to trade agreements involving reduced or zero tariffs with non-Member countries, which would make it in practice impossible to conclude meaningful trade agreements. It would in practice be obliged to follow the terms of trade agreements reached by the EU with non-Member countries or blocs, without having a vote on those agreements or on how they are negotiated. It is hard to see what useful purpose would be served by having a Department of International Trade.
3. The UK would be obliged, either directly or via an indirect mechanism similar to that of the EFTA Court under the EEA Agreement, to continue to be bound by past and future decisions of the ECJ on the interpretation of the common rules of the customs union.
4. If (as seems inevitable) the continuing customs union with the EU extends to non-tariff customs controls (such as certification of compliance with technical or safety standards, health requirements for food, etc) the UK would be obliged to follow the EU’s future rule changes on all these matters as well as interpretations of the rules by the ECJ.
5. The UK would have to apply these same rules and regulations across its own domestic economy as well. WTO rules do not permit us to operate different or more stringent standards on imported goods than the rules under which we allow goods to be put on our domestic market.
5. Having to follow the EU’s common rules on such non-tariff customs controls would (1) mean that the UK would be unable to negotiate changes to such controls with non-Member countries in order to facilitate trade with them and (2) make it in practice very difficult indeed for the UK to change its own rules for goods in its domestic market to differ from those applicable to imported goods under the Customs union common rules.
6. Overall, the UK would be significantly worse off than it is at present as an EU Member because it would be bound by the common rules of the EU customs union over wide areas of policy, be unable to operate an international trade policy independently of the EU, but have no vote on these matters.
http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/eu-deal-customs-union.shtml
@PolhomeEditor: Tory Brexiteers Bernard Jenkin says “there is going to be a customs frontier at the points of entry between the European Union and United Kingdom”, but insists that won’t mean checks on the Irish border. #r4today
In all seriousness though humankind is already a word at least isn't it? My only objection to peoplekind is it feels like a mouthful to say in comparison.
There'd have been a hell of a splash of course!
Next stop: Personufacturing. Because a MAN makes everything, huh?
Presumably Trudeau would refer to a mailman called Guy Chap as Person Person, who works as a personperson.
The lesson I took from the GE 2017 is that if you have policies people like, then you don't need to run every action you take through the "But what will the Daily Mail say?" filter. That goes double for a niche politics blog.
I still think it's 50/50 for the next election.
Clearly the next election remains open and I think the pool of floating voters is currently small, which is why the polls are so solid - most people have a firm view of who they don't like and are planning to vote for the other lot, regardless. But all sitting governments have built-in rates of decay and I think the Conservatives do have more to worry about - if they are building a narrative to take them forward after Brexit, they are disguising it awfully well (except Gove). Labour has a narrative (end austerity, rebuild public services), and in politics something usually beats nothing.