politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marginal improvements. Looking at the reliability of seat pred
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marginal improvements. Looking at the reliability of seat predictions from polls
Last week, Mike Smithson noted the Conservatives seem to have an in-built advantage in the electoral system over Labour – if they got an equal number of votes, the Conservatives could expect about 15 seats more than Labour even if Labour had a 0.5% lead in the polls, if Electoral Calculus is to be believed. That begs the question whether seats are likely to move consistently at the next election in the way that seat predictors assume. Let’s have a look at the possibilities.
Comments
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On topic;
Feeding random sample polls through UNS as a way to predict elections is finished. Yougov-panelly-type-polls/seat predictors are the future of psephology.
FPT;
Eek. I put half of my POTUS winnings in trackers. I think I'm still up ~25%, but dropping fast....Foxy said:
Easy come, easy go, I guess!
The tories desperately need wage growth to pick up, particularly for voters on NMW-to-average-earnings.IanB2 said:
More likely the stock market reaction will panic central banks into coming up with some reason to defer any action, hoping that wage inflation settles of its own accord. If that doesn't work, we are heading for a period of significantly higher inflation which, as it happens, is the least worst (for the debtors) of the various ways in which the crisis in public debt can be resolved.stodge said:
Yes, this is hardly news as it relates to the strong US payroll data released on Friday which triggered the current sell-off along with some disappointing corporate numbers.Big_G_NorthWales said:BBC reporting US stock falls due to prospect of higher interest rates
The view is the strong payroll dats will force renewed rises in interest rates and, I imagine, there will be pressure to raise rates here as well.
After years of QE as financial methodone, it looks as though we will all have to go cold turkey - good for savers though, let's not forget.
If that happens (I'm not convinced it will), beating Corbyn in 2022 will be a far easier task.
The tory client vote won't be happy, though.0 -
The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.0 -
Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
Which means much is up in the air.
Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.0 -
Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.0 -
Talking about Women's suffrage---now a mere 100 tears old---and thinking about Lysistrata, set me to wondering whether in our model advanced democracy we men should be allowed to vote.0
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Yep.Yorkcity said:
Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-42936613stevef said:
Yep.Yorkcity said:
Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.0 -
12 years of Tory rule?stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives?
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LOL. Of course Gerry Adams likes Corbyn. Corbyn was a friend to the IRA, and Adams thinks a Corbyn government will lead to a United Ireland. Its the support of swing voters in Middle England that Labour needs not nasty pieces of work like Gerry Adams.stevef said:
Yep.Yorkcity said:
Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.0 -
The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.Yorkcity said:
Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.
Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.0 -
Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.
Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.
I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.0 -
Yes, and they put back the cause of female suffrage for years.Yorkcity said:
Were suffragettes terrorists ?Toms said:Talking about Women's suffrage---now a mere 100 tears old---and thinking about Lysistrata, set me to wondering whether in our model advanced democracy we men should be allowed to vote.
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The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.Yorkcity said:
Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.
Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.0 -
Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticednielh said:
The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.Yorkcity said:
Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.
Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.0 -
The final 15 opinion polls before the last election actually slightly underestimated the Tory share, with an average of 42.8% against the 43.5% they got. The pollsters' problem was underestimating Labour and overestimating UKIP and some of the other minor parties.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#20170 -
The Youthquake didnt happen. But in any case by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.Recidivist said:
Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.
Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.
I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.0 -
Darn. Now I'm going to have to read it up.Yorkcity said:
Were suffragettes terrorists ?Toms said:Talking about Women's suffrage---now a mere 100 tears old---and thinking about Lysistrata, set me to wondering whether in our model advanced democracy we men should be allowed to vote.
In terms of your actual direct hands on violence I expect you'd have to use a logarithmic scale to get them on the same plot as us.0 -
Capped at 3% I think, hence Tory Northants going bust.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticednielh said:
The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.Yorkcity said:
Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.
Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.0 -
Surrey is putting up its Council Tax by nearly 6% - Northants is under a Section 114 notice. Remind me which parties run those authorities.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticed
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I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.0
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The “Youthquake didn’t happen” myth has been debunked. The study was based on a tiny sample size.stevef said:
The Youthquake didnt happen. But in any case by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.Recidivist said:
Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.
Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.
I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.0 -
We have had 5% year on year rises for years and now we are going to have four weekly bin collectionsstodge said:
Surrey is putting up its Council Tax by nearly 6% - Northants is under a Section 114 notice. Remind me which parties run those authorities.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticed0 -
Certainly a big incentive for the Tories to hold on until 2022!stevef said:
The Youthquake didnt happen. But in any case by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.Recidivist said:
Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.
Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.
I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.
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It's fascinating to see how allegiances in individual constituencies have shifted over just seven years.0
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I have that in mind for my next project.Sean_F said:It's fascinating to see how allegiances in individual constituencies have shifted over just seven years.
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I'm sure the Conservatives would love Labour to support the SM and a Customs Union because that would leave the Government as the only home for LEAVE voters. It's political sense to keep all options open.Big_G_NorthWales said:The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.
Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.
What possible evidence does anyone have that another Labour leader would be doing any better ? Yes it's Corbyn but who else would it be and what policies would they following that would be fantastically popular ?
Labour as the home of REMAIN is a dead end - it would help only the Conservatives. By trying to keep all options open and concentrating on non-Brexit issues such as the NHS, Labour is playing a shrewd game. The Conservatives continue to sound obsessed on Europe - as you keep telling us, the rest of us have moved on.
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I asked Sam Coates if The Times would commision more polling based on the YouGov model.AlastairMeeks said:I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.
He said they would like to, but there's some technical/methodological issues to be ironed out.
Mostly will it be accurate this far out from a general election.
There's a feeling it is more accurate the closer we are to election day.0 -
And your point is ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
We have had 5% year on year rises for years and now we are going to have four weekly bin collections0 -
With the greatest of respect I see no evidence of anyone having moving onstodge said:
I'm sure the Conservatives would love Labour to support the SM and a Customs Union because that would leave the Government as the only home for LEAVE voters. It's political sense to keep all options open.Big_G_NorthWales said:The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.
Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.
What possible evidence does anyone have that another Labour leader would be doing any better ? Yes it's Corbyn but who else would it be and what policies would they following that would be fantastically popular ?
Labour as the home of REMAIN is a dead end - it would help only the Conservatives. By trying to keep all options open and concentrating on non-Brexit issues such as the NHS, Labour is playing a shrewd game. The Conservatives continue to sound obsessed on Europe - as you keep telling us, the rest of us have moved on.0 -
Yes. And no.Pong said:Yougov-panelly-type-polls/seat predictors are the future of psephology.
Yes. Because the technique (multilevel regression and poststratification MRP) is the future. As it can be implemented for free (the technique is open-source and can be implemented using R), I expect that many pollsters will use it in 20whenever.
No. Because the technique is reliant on the panel being representative of the population. As I pointed out prior (and @isam was nice enough to thank me), YouGov spent six figures making their panel representative. If you use MRP without a representative panel (and Ashcroft did exactly that) then your prediction will still be wrong.
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The trouble is with the "triple lock" in place, pensioners must also receive that above-inflation rise. So taxes have to rise to meet that increase in the welfare budget.dixiedean said:Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
Which means much is up in the air.
Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.
It is now mathematically impossible for workers to receive a greater rise in their share of the nation relative to pensioners.
A solution would be to introduce a wealth tax. In which case, why would people need a Labour government?
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Higher than most English conservative councilsstodge said:
And your point is ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
We have had 5% year on year rises for years and now we are going to have four weekly bin collections0 -
It's tory run councils which are hitting the headlines for council tax hikes:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticednielh said:
The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.Yorkcity said:
Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.
Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-42399961
https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-council-tax-county-council-142237170 -
Also, if the Youthquake didn't happen. wouldn't that be bad news for the Conservatives?not_on_fire said:
The “Youthquake didn’t happen” myth has been debunked. The study was based on a tiny sample size.stevef said:
The Youthquake didnt happen. But in any case by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.Recidivist said:
Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.
Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.
I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.
Surely it would follow that therefore they did worse amongst other age groups than originally suspected?0 -
The Con Lab seat split isn't that different, overall. In 2010 it was 306 to 258. Now it's 317 to 262. But, there have been wild swings at local level between them, and wild swings between them, the Lib Dems and SNP.AlastairMeeks said:
I have that in mind for my next project.Sean_F said:It's fascinating to see how allegiances in individual constituencies have shifted over just seven years.
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The clue is massiveBenpointer said:
It's tory run councils which are hitting the headlines for council tax hikes:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticednielh said:
The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.Yorkcity said:
Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?stevef said:The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?
Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.
So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.
The answer remains obvious.
Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-42399961
https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-council-tax-county-council-142237170 -
Anyway, enough of this heathen jibber-jabber.
Here is the trailer for Mission Impossible: Fallout. Guns! Explosions! Simon Pegg's hair transplant! See Tom Cruise break every bone in his body whilst hanging off a tall thing! Again!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb49-oV0F780 -
The solution is above trend growth. So pensioners and the employed feel better off. Projected growth figures before 2022 make that seem improbable.No_Offence_Alan said:
The trouble is with the "triple lock" in place, pensioners must also receive that above-inflation rise. So taxes have to rise to meet that increase in the welfare budget.dixiedean said:Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
Which means much is up in the air.
Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.
It is now mathematically impossible for workers to receive a greater rise in their share of the nation relative to pensioners.
A solution would be to introduce a wealth tax. In which case, why would people need a Labour government?0 -
viewcode said:
Anyway, enough of this heathen jibber-jabber.
Here is the trailer for Mission Impossible: Fallout. Guns! Explosions! Simon Pegg's hair transplant! See Tom Cruise break every bone in his body whilst hanging off a tall thing! Again!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb49-oV0F78
Tom Cruise is scarily good at what he does.
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And because there is no way round the problem that Yougov can spend whatever they like, but they cannot capture a representative of the 99% of the population who would sooner amputate their own feet using only nail scissors, than be on a Yougov panel, and they cannot eliminate the problem that for the politically motivated (the other 1%) it is often rational to lie to pollsters. If there was a golden age of telephone polling, it was when receiving a phone call of any kind was a big deal, and when a chap with a BBC accent asked you your VI you stood to attention and told him the truth. That was then, this is now.viewcode said:
Yes. And no.Pong said:Yougov-panelly-type-polls/seat predictors are the future of psephology.
Yes. Because the technique (multilevel regression and poststratification MRP) is the future. As it can be implemented for free (the technique is open-source and can be implemented using R), I expect that many pollsters will use it in 20whenever.
No. Because the technique is reliant on the panel being representative of the population. As I pointed out prior (and @isam was nice enough to thank me), YouGov spent six figures making their panel representative. If you use MRP without a representative panel (and Ashcroft did exactly that) then your prediction will still be wrong.0 -
Thanks Alastair - the link to the distribution doesn't appear to be working.
I think a lot depends on the circumstances under which the next election takes place (obvious, I know).0 -
The solution to the maths problem of the triple lock will be to raise the pension age faster than would’ve been the case. Effectively you thereby create more workers and fewer pensioners out of the existing population.No_Offence_Alan said:
The trouble is with the "triple lock" in place, pensioners must also receive that above-inflation rise. So taxes have to rise to meet that increase in the welfare budget.dixiedean said:Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
Which means much is up in the air.
Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.
It is now mathematically impossible for workers to receive a greater rise in their share of the nation relative to pensioners.
A solution would be to introduce a wealth tax. In which case, why would people need a Labour government?0 -
Possibly true, but the key unknown is whether the fiftysomethings, like myself, trend Tory, or whether like so many of our habits we stick to those of our youth.viewcode said:
Is this true, and do you have a source? I'm not being antagonistic, I'm genuinely interested.stevef said:by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.
Middle aged people of today look and act differently from previous generations. We are the punk generation.
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Thus irritating the currently employed even more...welshowl said:
The solution to the maths problem of the triple lock will be to raise the pension age faster than would’ve been the case. Effectively you thereby create more workers and fewer pensioners out of the existing population.No_Offence_Alan said:
The trouble is with the "triple lock" in place, pensioners must also receive that above-inflation rise. So taxes have to rise to meet that increase in the welfare budget.dixiedean said:Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
Which means much is up in the air.
Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.
It is now mathematically impossible for workers to receive a greater rise in their share of the nation relative to pensioners.
A solution would be to introduce a wealth tax. In which case, why would people need a Labour government?0 -
I've fixed that link, it should work now.tlg86 said:Thanks Alastair - the link to the distribution doesn't appear to be working.
I think a lot depends on the circumstances under which the next election takes place (obvious, I know).
Blame the numpty who uploaded Alastair's piece.0 -
The stock market situation is starting to look serious now.
On topic, UNS didn't work last time because there was a big shift from class-based to age-based voting in the aftermath of the Brexit vote.
If you take the view that this shift will be long-lasting, and prompt a corresponding realignment of the parties in terms of their positioning, then the next election may well return to being relatively predictable by UNS, with the usual caveat that this only really works for Tory v Labour contests and is not at all reliable when it comes to the smaller parties.
If on the other hand you expect an unwinding of the Brexit effect and a return toward more class-driven voting behaviour, or alternatively if you take the view that politics is now so volatile that the Brexit effect could accerate or that some currently unforeseeable dimension will enter the equation, then the UNS model is bust.
If the age-driven voting pattern persists then the likelihood of a big majority result is increased, since age distributions vary less by location (with the obvious exceptions of student or waiting room seats) than does class. If either party establishes a reasonable lead without any strong class-differential then the seat gains would be considerable.0 -
Don't know your age Dr Fox, but I'm a fifty something. Am from the acid house generation.Foxy said:
Possibly true, but the key unknown is whether the fiftysomethings, like myself, trend Tory, or whether like so many of our habits we stick to those of our youth.viewcode said:
Is this true, and do you have a source? I'm not being antagonistic, I'm genuinely interested.stevef said:by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.
Middle aged people of today look and act differently from previous generations. We are the punk generation.0 -
O dear - Watford 2 Chelsea 10
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That's right. And anyone who says punk is dead, will be.Foxy said:
Possibly true, but the key unknown is whether the fiftysomethings, like myself, trend Tory, or whether like so many of our habits we stick to those of our youth.viewcode said:
Is this true, and do you have a source? I'm not being antagonistic, I'm genuinely interested.stevef said:by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.
Middle aged people of today look and act differently from previous generations. We are the punk generation.0 -
I started with punk, moved on to New Romantics, and ended youth on Acid House. Skipped Acid itself though.dixiedean said:
Don't know your age Dr Fox, but I'm a fifty something. Am from the acid house generation.Foxy said:
Possibly true, but the key unknown is whether the fiftysomethings, like myself, trend Tory, or whether like so many of our habits we stick to those of our youth.viewcode said:
Is this true, and do you have a source? I'm not being antagonistic, I'm genuinely interested.stevef said:by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.
Middle aged people of today look and act differently from previous generations. We are the punk generation.0 -
Very insightful thread header.
Thanks Alastair.0 -
Watford 3 Chelsea 1
Conte gone surely0 -
Ave it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0
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Don't forget the Populus model by Andrew Cooper's protege (I can't remember his name, possibly a long Sri Lankan name?) who said to Ruth Davidson prior to GE2017: one day, you will win 20 seats.AlastairMeeks said:I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.
0 -
James KanagasooriamCasino_Royale said:
Don't forget the Populus model by Andrew Cooper's protege (I can't remember his name, possibly a long Sri Lankan name?) who said to Ruth Davidson prior to GE2017: one day, you will win 20 seats.AlastairMeeks said:I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.
0 -
AgainAve_it said:Ave it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
0 -
0
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I'm up to date with Star Trek: Discoveryviewcode said:Anyway, enough of this heathen jibber-jabber.
Here is the trailer for Mission Impossible: Fallout. Guns! Explosions! Simon Pegg's hair transplant! See Tom Cruise break every bone in his body whilst hanging off a tall thing! Again!
/www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb49-oV0F78
0 -
Watford 4 Chelsea 1
Would you believe it0 -
:LOL: :LOL: :LOL:0
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Get in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0
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My personal experience has been that middle class university graduates, many of which are in my social circle, have moved away from the Conservatives but, at the same time, from canvassing, I found surprising levels of Conservative support in working class areas from about 2005 onwards, and then a fair few of the UKIP vote moved over after 2016.Sean_F said:
The Con Lab seat split isn't that different, overall. In 2010 it was 306 to 258. Now it's 317 to 262. But, there have been wild swings at local level between them, and wild swings between them, the Lib Dems and SNP.AlastairMeeks said:
I have that in mind for my next project.Sean_F said:It's fascinating to see how allegiances in individual constituencies have shifted over just seven years.
But, voting patterns are very stable amongst the over 55s, who seem to pretty much vote Labour or Conservative habitually, regardless.0 -
Watford fans chanting we want 5 !!!!!0
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I thought they were chanting 'You're getting sacked in the morning'Big_G_NorthWales said:Watford fans chanting we want 5 !!!!!
0 -
Baptism of fire for Jerome Powell at the Fed.0
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That as wellTheScreamingEagles said:
I thought they were chanting 'You're getting sacked in the morning'Big_G_NorthWales said:Watford fans chanting we want 5 !!!!!
0 -
Watford!0
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Final score 4 - 10
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Ah, thanks. Good knowledge.TheScreamingEagles said:
James KanagasooriamCasino_Royale said:
Don't forget the Populus model by Andrew Cooper's protege (I can't remember his name, possibly a long Sri Lankan name?) who said to Ruth Davidson prior to GE2017: one day, you will win 20 seats.AlastairMeeks said:I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.
0 -
Ta muchly.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've fixed that link, it should work now.tlg86 said:Thanks Alastair - the link to the distribution doesn't appear to be working.
I think a lot depends on the circumstances under which the next election takes place (obvious, I know).
Blame the numpty who uploaded Alastair's piece.0 -
He's also on twitter, well worth following.Casino_Royale said:
Ah, thanks. Good knowledge.TheScreamingEagles said:
James KanagasooriamCasino_Royale said:
Don't forget the Populus model by Andrew Cooper's protege (I can't remember his name, possibly a long Sri Lankan name?) who said to Ruth Davidson prior to GE2017: one day, you will win 20 seats.AlastairMeeks said:I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.
https://twitter.com/JamesKanag0 -
It's getting really good. Michelle Yeaeaeaeahoh is far better as a villain than a tightass, tho it's a pity what happened to Lorca: I wanted him to stay on!Sunil_Prasannan said:
I'm up to date with Star Trek: Discoveryviewcode said:Anyway, enough of this heathen jibber-jabber.
Here is the trailer for Mission Impossible: Fallout. Guns! Explosions! Simon Pegg's hair transplant! See Tom Cruise break every bone in his body whilst hanging off a tall thing! Again!
/www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb49-oV0F780 -
Sky in full anti Brexit mode tonight as usual0
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Because Barnier isn't an MP and SoS?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I'm confused. Donald Trump says the NHS is "going broke and not working." Isn't he in agreement with the Left in this country?0
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Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.Mortimer said:
Because Barnier isn't an MP and SoS?TheScreamingEagles said:
Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.
Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html0 -
I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.TheScreamingEagles said:This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.
https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/9606291792628858950 -
You're forgetting that Davis might be needed to vote in/report to the HoC.TheScreamingEagles said:
Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.Mortimer said:
Because Barnier isn't an MP and SoS?TheScreamingEagles said:
Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.
Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html
And he runs an entire ministry.
Barnier is a politically appointed civil servant.0 -
You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.CarlottaVance said:
I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.TheScreamingEagles said:This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.
https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895-1 -
Ben Youngs to miss rest of England's campaign with knee ligament injury
http://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/42946822
At this rate, I might need to dig out my boots !!!0 -
I agree with:NickPalmer said:
You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.CarlottaVance said:
I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.TheScreamingEagles said:This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.
https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895
Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.
Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.0 -
Something-must-be-done-ism is no answer.CarlottaVance said:
I agree with:NickPalmer said:
You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.CarlottaVance said:
I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.TheScreamingEagles said:This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.
https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895
Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.
Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.0 -
Dave ran an entire country and caught Eurostar.Mortimer said:
You're forgetting that Davis might be needed to vote in/report to the HoC.TheScreamingEagles said:
Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.Mortimer said:
Because Barnier isn't an MP and SoS?TheScreamingEagles said:
Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.
Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html
And he runs an entire ministry.
Barnier is a politically appointed civil servant.0 -
I wasn’t in favour of intervening in Syria but I have to admit that the alternative has been pretty appalling.NickPalmer said:
You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.CarlottaVance said:
I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.TheScreamingEagles said:This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.
https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/9606291792628858950 -
And also flew EasyJet and shopped in Morrisons....TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave ran an entire country and caught Eurostar.Mortimer said:
You're forgetting that Davis might be needed to vote in/report to the HoC.TheScreamingEagles said:
Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.Mortimer said:
Because Barnier isn't an MP and SoS?TheScreamingEagles said:
Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.
Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html
And he runs an entire ministry.
Barnier is a politically appointed civil servant.0 -
Yup.CarlottaVance said:
I agree with:NickPalmer said:
You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.CarlottaVance said:
I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.TheScreamingEagles said:This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.
https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895
Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.
Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.
It sent out the message that using chemical weapons wouldn't have any consequences for the leader using them.0 -
Staying out of Syria, or at least, not bombing both sides in the same conflict is the smartest thing since Wilson kept us out of Vietnam.NickPalmer said:
You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.CarlottaVance said:
I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.TheScreamingEagles said:This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.
https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/9606291792628858950 -
Like me, he's a man of the people.FrancisUrquhart said:
And also flew EasyJet and shopped in Morrisons....TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave ran an entire country and caught Eurostar.Mortimer said:
You're forgetting that Davis might be needed to vote in/report to the HoC.TheScreamingEagles said:
Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.Mortimer said:
Because Barnier isn't an MP and SoS?TheScreamingEagles said:
Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.
Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html
And he runs an entire ministry.
Barnier is a politically appointed civil servant.0 -
Just not quite as bad as 'let me virtue signal and hang the consequences'....IanB2 said:
Something-must-be-done-ism is no answer.CarlottaVance said:
I agree with:NickPalmer said:
You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.CarlottaVance said:
I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.TheScreamingEagles said:This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.
https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895
Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.
Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.0 -
Unfashionable opinion it may be, but was "emboldening Assad" such a bad thing? After all, as we've now seen, the alternative to him was probably ISIS.CarlottaVance said:
I agree with:NickPalmer said:
You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.CarlottaVance said:
I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.TheScreamingEagles said:This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.
https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895
Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.
Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.0
