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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marginal improvements. Looking at the reliability of seat predictions from polls

Last week, Mike Smithson noted the Conservatives seem to have an in-built advantage in the electoral system over Labour – if they got an equal number of votes, the Conservatives could expect about 15 seats more than Labour even if Labour had a 0.5% lead in the polls, if Electoral Calculus is to be believed. That begs the question whether seats are likely to move consistently at the next election in the way that seat predictors assume. Let’s have a look at the possibilities.

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Pong

On topic;

Feeding random sample polls through UNS as a way to predict elections is finished. Yougov-panelly-type-polls/seat predictors are the future of psephology.

FPT;

Foxy said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/cnbc/status/960606284193128448

Dropping faster now.

Into headless chicken mode.

Eek. I put half of my POTUS winnings in trackers. I think I'm still up ~25%, but dropping fast....

Easy come, easy go, I guess!

IanB2 said:

stodge said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

BBC reporting US stock falls due to prospect of higher interest rates

Yes, this is hardly news as it relates to the strong US payroll data released on Friday which triggered the current sell-off along with some disappointing corporate numbers.

The view is the strong payroll dats will force renewed rises in interest rates and, I imagine, there will be pressure to raise rates here as well.

After years of QE as financial methodone, it looks as though we will all have to go cold turkey - good for savers though, let's not forget.

More likely the stock market reaction will panic central banks into coming up with some reason to defer any action, hoping that wage inflation settles of its own accord. If that doesn't work, we are heading for a period of significantly higher inflation which, as it happens, is the least worst (for the debtors) of the various ways in which the crisis in public debt can be resolved.

The tories desperately need wage growth to pick up, particularly for voters on NMW-to-average-earnings.

If that happens (I'm not convinced it will), beating Corbyn in 2022 will be a far easier task.

The tory client vote won't be happy, though.

stevef

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

dixiedean

Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
Which means much is up in the air.
Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.

Yorkcity

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?

Toms

Talking about Women's suffrage---now a mere 100 tears old---and thinking about Lysistrata, set me to wondering whether in our model advanced democracy we men should be allowed to vote.

stevef

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?

Yep.

Sunil_Prasannan

stevef said:

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?

Yep.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-42936613

williamglenn

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives?

12 years of Tory rule?

stevef

stevef said:

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?

Yep.

LOL. Of course Gerry Adams likes Corbyn. Corbyn was a friend to the IRA, and Adams thinks a Corbyn government will lead to a United Ireland. Its the support of swing voters in Middle England that Labour needs not nasty pieces of work like Gerry Adams.

Yorkcity

Toms said:

Talking about Women's suffrage---now a mere 100 tears old---and thinking about Lysistrata, set me to wondering whether in our model advanced democracy we men should be allowed to vote.

Were suffragettes terrorists ?

Big_G_NorthWales

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?

The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.

Recidivist

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.

Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.

I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.

stevef

Yorkcity said:

Toms said:

Talking about Women's suffrage---now a mere 100 tears old---and thinking about Lysistrata, set me to wondering whether in our model advanced democracy we men should be allowed to vote.

Were suffragettes terrorists ?

Yes, and they put back the cause of female suffrage for years.

nielh

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?

The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.

The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.

Big_G_NorthWales

nielh said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?

The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.

The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.

Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticed

AndyJS

The final 15 opinion polls before the last election actually slightly underestimated the Tory share, with an average of 42.8% against the 43.5% they got. The pollsters' problem was underestimating Labour and overestimating UKIP and some of the other minor parties.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#2017

stevef

Recidivist said:

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.

Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.

I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.

The Youthquake didnt happen. But in any case by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.

Toms

Yorkcity said:

Toms said:

Talking about Women's suffrage---now a mere 100 tears old---and thinking about Lysistrata, set me to wondering whether in our model advanced democracy we men should be allowed to vote.

Were suffragettes terrorists ?

Darn. Now I'm going to have to read it up.
In terms of your actual direct hands on violence I expect you'd have to use a logarithmic scale to get them on the same plot as us.

Sean_F

Yorkcity said:

Toms said:

Talking about Women's suffrage---now a mere 100 tears old---and thinking about Lysistrata, set me to wondering whether in our model advanced democracy we men should be allowed to vote.

Were suffragettes terrorists ?

Some of them were.

Foxy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nielh said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?

The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.

The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.

Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticed

Capped at 3% I think, hence Tory Northants going bust.

stodge

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticed

Surrey is putting up its Council Tax by nearly 6% - Northants is under a Section 114 notice. Remind me which parties run those authorities.

viewcode

stevef said:

by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.

Is this true, and do you have a source? I'm not being antagonistic, I'm genuinely interested.

AlastairMeeks

I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.

not_on_fire

stevef said:

Recidivist said:

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.

Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.

I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.

The Youthquake didnt happen. But in any case by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.

The “Youthquake didn’t happen” myth has been debunked. The study was based on a tiny sample size.

Big_G_NorthWales

stodge said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticed

Surrey is putting up its Council Tax by nearly 6% - Northants is under a Section 114 notice. Remind me which parties run those authorities.

We have had 5% year on year rises for years and now we are going to have four weekly bin collections

MarqueeMark

stevef said:

Recidivist said:

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.

Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.

I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.

The Youthquake didnt happen. But in any case by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.

Certainly a big incentive for the Tories to hold on until 2022!

Sean_F

It's fascinating to see how allegiances in individual constituencies have shifted over just seven years.

AlastairMeeks

Sean_F said:

It's fascinating to see how allegiances in individual constituencies have shifted over just seven years.

I have that in mind for my next project.

stodge

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.

I'm sure the Conservatives would love Labour to support the SM and a Customs Union because that would leave the Government as the only home for LEAVE voters. It's political sense to keep all options open.

What possible evidence does anyone have that another Labour leader would be doing any better ? Yes it's Corbyn but who else would it be and what policies would they following that would be fantastically popular ?

Labour as the home of REMAIN is a dead end - it would help only the Conservatives. By trying to keep all options open and concentrating on non-Brexit issues such as the NHS, Labour is playing a shrewd game. The Conservatives continue to sound obsessed on Europe - as you keep telling us, the rest of us have moved on.

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.

I asked Sam Coates if The Times would commision more polling based on the YouGov model.

He said they would like to, but there's some technical/methodological issues to be ironed out.

Mostly will it be accurate this far out from a general election.

There's a feeling it is more accurate the closer we are to election day.

stodge

Big_G_NorthWales said:

We have had 5% year on year rises for years and now we are going to have four weekly bin collections

And your point is ?

Big_G_NorthWales

stodge said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.

I'm sure the Conservatives would love Labour to support the SM and a Customs Union because that would leave the Government as the only home for LEAVE voters. It's political sense to keep all options open.

What possible evidence does anyone have that another Labour leader would be doing any better ? Yes it's Corbyn but who else would it be and what policies would they following that would be fantastically popular ?

Labour as the home of REMAIN is a dead end - it would help only the Conservatives. By trying to keep all options open and concentrating on non-Brexit issues such as the NHS, Labour is playing a shrewd game. The Conservatives continue to sound obsessed on Europe - as you keep telling us, the rest of us have moved on.

With the greatest of respect I see no evidence of anyone having moving on

viewcode

Pong said:

Yougov-panelly-type-polls/seat predictors are the future of psephology.

Yes. And no.

Yes. Because the technique (multilevel regression and poststratification MRP) is the future. As it can be implemented for free (the technique is open-source and can be implemented using R), I expect that many pollsters will use it in 20whenever.

No. Because the technique is reliant on the panel being representative of the population. As I pointed out prior (and @isam was nice enough to thank me), YouGov spent six figures making their panel representative. If you use MRP without a representative panel (and Ashcroft did exactly that) then your prediction will still be wrong.

No_Offence_Alan

dixiedean said:

Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
Which means much is up in the air.
Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.

The trouble is with the "triple lock" in place, pensioners must also receive that above-inflation rise. So taxes have to rise to meet that increase in the welfare budget.
It is now mathematically impossible for workers to receive a greater rise in their share of the nation relative to pensioners.
A solution would be to introduce a wealth tax. In which case, why would people need a Labour government?

Big_G_NorthWales

stodge said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

We have had 5% year on year rises for years and now we are going to have four weekly bin collections

And your point is ?

Higher than most English conservative councils

Benpointer

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nielh said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?

The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.

The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.

Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticed

It's tory run councils which are hitting the headlines for council tax hikes:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-42399961
https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-council-tax-county-council-14223717

dixiedean

not_on_fire said:

stevef said:

Recidivist said:

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Talk to some old people. They see the Tories as competent if unlovable. They don't take too much notice of recent events.

Talk to some young people. They loathe the Tories. I think the polls are underestimating their motivation to turn out.

I don't know if it will last for 5 years but for now the Tories simply can't risk another election.

The Youthquake didnt happen. But in any case by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.

The “Youthquake didn’t happen” myth has been debunked. The study was based on a tiny sample size.

Also, if the Youthquake didn't happen. wouldn't that be bad news for the Conservatives?
Surely it would follow that therefore they did worse amongst other age groups than originally suspected?

Sean_F

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

It's fascinating to see how allegiances in individual constituencies have shifted over just seven years.

I have that in mind for my next project.

The Con Lab seat split isn't that different, overall. In 2010 it was 306 to 258. Now it's 317 to 262. But, there have been wild swings at local level between them, and wild swings between them, the Lib Dems and SNP.

Big_G_NorthWales

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nielh said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

The question really should be why after 12 years of mediocre -some would say disastrous -Tory rule is there even a possibility that Labour will poll the same number of votes as the Conservatives? Why aren't Labour far ahead in the polls right now?

Bear in mind too that governments, especially Tory governments, tend to do better in real general elections, than they doing mid term in polls. We can expect therefore the Tories to do a bit better at the 2022 election than they are doing now. And it remains true that no opposition in history has ever formed a government without being at least 15 points ahead in the polls between elections.

So why are the Tories polling so high. Why are Labour not further ahead.

The answer remains obvious.

Give us a clue, does it start with c and end in n ?

The reality is that a half decent labour party leader championing staying in the single market and customs union would be miles ahead.

Corbyn and his hard left cronies are being found out day by day and it is likely that London will experience the full force of hard left policies in local government after Mays locals.

The hard left policies will have no effect, because local government has no power.

Massive hikes in council tax and momentum takeovers will be noticed

It's tory run councils which are hitting the headlines for council tax hikes:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-42399961
https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-council-tax-county-council-14223717

The clue is massive

viewcode

Anyway, enough of this heathen jibber-jabber.

Here is the trailer for Mission Impossible: Fallout. Guns! Explosions! Simon Pegg's hair transplant! See Tom Cruise break every bone in his body whilst hanging off a tall thing! Again!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb49-oV0F78

dixiedean

No_Offence_Alan said:

dixiedean said:

Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
Which means much is up in the air.
Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.

The trouble is with the "triple lock" in place, pensioners must also receive that above-inflation rise. So taxes have to rise to meet that increase in the welfare budget.
It is now mathematically impossible for workers to receive a greater rise in their share of the nation relative to pensioners.
A solution would be to introduce a wealth tax. In which case, why would people need a Labour government?

The solution is above trend growth. So pensioners and the employed feel better off. Projected growth figures before 2022 make that seem improbable.

MarkHopkins

viewcode said:

Anyway, enough of this heathen jibber-jabber.

Here is the trailer for Mission Impossible: Fallout. Guns! Explosions! Simon Pegg's hair transplant! See Tom Cruise break every bone in his body whilst hanging off a tall thing! Again!

www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb49-oV0F78

Tom Cruise is scarily good at what he does.

Ishmael_Z

viewcode said:

Pong said:

Yougov-panelly-type-polls/seat predictors are the future of psephology.

Yes. And no.

Yes. Because the technique (multilevel regression and poststratification MRP) is the future. As it can be implemented for free (the technique is open-source and can be implemented using R), I expect that many pollsters will use it in 20whenever.

No. Because the technique is reliant on the panel being representative of the population. As I pointed out prior (and @isam was nice enough to thank me), YouGov spent six figures making their panel representative. If you use MRP without a representative panel (and Ashcroft did exactly that) then your prediction will still be wrong.

And because there is no way round the problem that Yougov can spend whatever they like, but they cannot capture a representative of the 99% of the population who would sooner amputate their own feet using only nail scissors, than be on a Yougov panel, and they cannot eliminate the problem that for the politically motivated (the other 1%) it is often rational to lie to pollsters. If there was a golden age of telephone polling, it was when receiving a phone call of any kind was a big deal, and when a chap with a BBC accent asked you your VI you stood to attention and told him the truth. That was then, this is now.

tlg86

Thanks Alastair - the link to the distribution doesn't appear to be working.

I think a lot depends on the circumstances under which the next election takes place (obvious, I know).

welshowl

No_Offence_Alan said:

dixiedean said:

Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
Which means much is up in the air.
Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.

The trouble is with the "triple lock" in place, pensioners must also receive that above-inflation rise. So taxes have to rise to meet that increase in the welfare budget.
It is now mathematically impossible for workers to receive a greater rise in their share of the nation relative to pensioners.
A solution would be to introduce a wealth tax. In which case, why would people need a Labour government?

The solution to the maths problem of the triple lock will be to raise the pension age faster than would’ve been the case. Effectively you thereby create more workers and fewer pensioners out of the existing population.

Foxy

viewcode said:

stevef said:

by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.

Is this true, and do you have a source? I'm not being antagonistic, I'm genuinely interested.

Possibly true, but the key unknown is whether the fiftysomethings, like myself, trend Tory, or whether like so many of our habits we stick to those of our youth.

Middle aged people of today look and act differently from previous generations. We are the punk generation.

dixiedean

welshowl said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

dixiedean said:

Second. Or even third. Like everyone else was compared to the YouGov model. UNS, like class based voting, is becoming obsolete.
New coalitions and voting blocs are forming.
Which means much is up in the air.
Pong is right though. The Tories need to get wages rising above inflation for an extended period.
Otherwise, working people will give Labour power.

The trouble is with the "triple lock" in place, pensioners must also receive that above-inflation rise. So taxes have to rise to meet that increase in the welfare budget.
It is now mathematically impossible for workers to receive a greater rise in their share of the nation relative to pensioners.
A solution would be to introduce a wealth tax. In which case, why would people need a Labour government?

The solution to the maths problem of the triple lock will be to raise the pension age faster than would’ve been the case. Effectively you thereby create more workers and fewer pensioners out of the existing population.

Thus irritating the currently employed even more...

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

Thanks Alastair - the link to the distribution doesn't appear to be working.

I think a lot depends on the circumstances under which the next election takes place (obvious, I know).

I've fixed that link, it should work now.

Blame the numpty who uploaded Alastair's piece.

IanB2

The stock market situation is starting to look serious now.

On topic, UNS didn't work last time because there was a big shift from class-based to age-based voting in the aftermath of the Brexit vote.

If you take the view that this shift will be long-lasting, and prompt a corresponding realignment of the parties in terms of their positioning, then the next election may well return to being relatively predictable by UNS, with the usual caveat that this only really works for Tory v Labour contests and is not at all reliable when it comes to the smaller parties.

If on the other hand you expect an unwinding of the Brexit effect and a return toward more class-driven voting behaviour, or alternatively if you take the view that politics is now so volatile that the Brexit effect could accerate or that some currently unforeseeable dimension will enter the equation, then the UNS model is bust.

If the age-driven voting pattern persists then the likelihood of a big majority result is increased, since age distributions vary less by location (with the obvious exceptions of student or waiting room seats) than does class. If either party establishes a reasonable lead without any strong class-differential then the seat gains would be considerable.

dixiedean

Foxy said:

viewcode said:

stevef said:

by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.

Is this true, and do you have a source? I'm not being antagonistic, I'm genuinely interested.

Possibly true, but the key unknown is whether the fiftysomethings, like myself, trend Tory, or whether like so many of our habits we stick to those of our youth.

Middle aged people of today look and act differently from previous generations. We are the punk generation.

Don't know your age Dr Fox, but I'm a fifty something. Am from the acid house generation.

Big_G_NorthWales

O dear - Watford 2 Chelsea 1

Recidivist

Foxy said:

viewcode said:

stevef said:

by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.

Is this true, and do you have a source? I'm not being antagonistic, I'm genuinely interested.

Possibly true, but the key unknown is whether the fiftysomethings, like myself, trend Tory, or whether like so many of our habits we stick to those of our youth.

Middle aged people of today look and act differently from previous generations. We are the punk generation.

That's right. And anyone who says punk is dead, will be.

Foxy

dixiedean said:

Foxy said:

viewcode said:

stevef said:

by the time of the next election, over 55's will be the majority of the electorate.

Is this true, and do you have a source? I'm not being antagonistic, I'm genuinely interested.

Possibly true, but the key unknown is whether the fiftysomethings, like myself, trend Tory, or whether like so many of our habits we stick to those of our youth.

Middle aged people of today look and act differently from previous generations. We are the punk generation.

Don't know your age Dr Fox, but I'm a fifty something. Am from the acid house generation.

I started with punk, moved on to New Romantics, and ended youth on Acid House. Skipped Acid itself though.

Casino_Royale

Very insightful thread header.

Thanks Alastair.

Big_G_NorthWales

Watford 3 Chelsea 1

Conte gone surely

Ave_it

Ave it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.

Don't forget the Populus model by Andrew Cooper's protege (I can't remember his name, possibly a long Sri Lankan name?) who said to Ruth Davidson prior to GE2017: one day, you will win 20 seats.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.

Don't forget the Populus model by Andrew Cooper's protege (I can't remember his name, possibly a long Sri Lankan name?) who said to Ruth Davidson prior to GE2017: one day, you will win 20 seats.

James Kanagasooriam

TheScreamingEagles

Ave_it said:

Ave it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Again

TheScreamingEagles

This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.

https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895

Sunil_Prasannan

viewcode said:

Anyway, enough of this heathen jibber-jabber.

Here is the trailer for Mission Impossible: Fallout. Guns! Explosions! Simon Pegg's hair transplant! See Tom Cruise break every bone in his body whilst hanging off a tall thing! Again!

/www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb49-oV0F78

I'm up to date with Star Trek: Discovery

Big_G_NorthWales

Watford 4 Chelsea 1

Would you believe it

Ave_it

:LOL: :LOL: :LOL:

Ave_it

Get in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

It's fascinating to see how allegiances in individual constituencies have shifted over just seven years.

I have that in mind for my next project.

The Con Lab seat split isn't that different, overall. In 2010 it was 306 to 258. Now it's 317 to 262. But, there have been wild swings at local level between them, and wild swings between them, the Lib Dems and SNP.

My personal experience has been that middle class university graduates, many of which are in my social circle, have moved away from the Conservatives but, at the same time, from canvassing, I found surprising levels of Conservative support in working class areas from about 2005 onwards, and then a fair few of the UKIP vote moved over after 2016.

But, voting patterns are very stable amongst the over 55s, who seem to pretty much vote Labour or Conservative habitually, regardless.

Big_G_NorthWales

Watford fans chanting we want 5 !!!!!

TheScreamingEagles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Watford fans chanting we want 5 !!!!!

I thought they were chanting 'You're getting sacked in the morning'

geoffw

Baptism of fire for Jerome Powell at the Fed.

Charles

Ave_it said:

Ave it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I thought you might turn up with Watford doing this...

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Watford fans chanting we want 5 !!!!!

I thought they were chanting 'You're getting sacked in the morning'

That as well

Ave_it

Watford!

Mortimer

Ave_it said:

Get in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ave_it! - good to see you here sir!

Big_G_NorthWales

Final score 4 - 1

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.

Don't forget the Populus model by Andrew Cooper's protege (I can't remember his name, possibly a long Sri Lankan name?) who said to Ruth Davidson prior to GE2017: one day, you will win 20 seats.

James Kanagasooriam

Ah, thanks. Good knowledge.

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Thanks Alastair - the link to the distribution doesn't appear to be working.

I think a lot depends on the circumstances under which the next election takes place (obvious, I know).

I've fixed that link, it should work now.

Blame the numpty who uploaded Alastair's piece.

Ta muchly.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I’m wondering just how many iterations of the YouGov model its devotees expect to see between now and the next election. While we wait, the rest of us will just have to make do with opinion polls to judge what’s going on.

Don't forget the Populus model by Andrew Cooper's protege (I can't remember his name, possibly a long Sri Lankan name?) who said to Ruth Davidson prior to GE2017: one day, you will win 20 seats.

James Kanagasooriam

Ah, thanks. Good knowledge.

He's also on twitter, well worth following.

https://twitter.com/JamesKanag

viewcode

Sunil_Prasannan said:

viewcode said:

Anyway, enough of this heathen jibber-jabber.

Here is the trailer for Mission Impossible: Fallout. Guns! Explosions! Simon Pegg's hair transplant! See Tom Cruise break every bone in his body whilst hanging off a tall thing! Again!

/www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb49-oV0F78

I'm up to date with Star Trek: Discovery

It's getting really good. Michelle Yeaeaeaeahoh is far better as a villain than a tightass, tho it's a pity what happened to Lorca: I wanted him to stay on!

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/GeorgeFoulkes/status/960635353634951170

Big_G_NorthWales

Sky in full anti Brexit mode tonight as usual

Mortimer

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/GeorgeFoulkes/status/960635353634951170

Because Barnier isn't an MP and SoS?

tlg86

I'm confused. Donald Trump says the NHS is "going broke and not working." Isn't he in agreement with the Left in this country?

dixiedean

tlg86 said:

I'm confused. Donald Trump says the NHS is "going broke and not working." Isn't he in agreement with the Left in this country?

He may also be regretting his boasting about the Dow.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/960635635500449792

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/960638448930566145

TheScreamingEagles

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/GeorgeFoulkes/status/960635353634951170

Because Barnier isn't an MP and SoS?

Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.

Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.

Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html

CarlottaVance

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.

https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895

I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.

Mortimer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/GeorgeFoulkes/status/960635353634951170

Because Barnier isn't an MP and SoS?

Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.

Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.

Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html

You're forgetting that Davis might be needed to vote in/report to the HoC.

And he runs an entire ministry.

Barnier is a politically appointed civil servant.

Foxy

tlg86 said:

I'm confused. Donald Trump says the NHS is "going broke and not working." Isn't he in agreement with the Left in this country?

He is. The difference is that the Left want to fix it, Trump wants to kill it off.

NickPalmer

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.

https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895

I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.

You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.

FrancisUrquhart

Ben Youngs to miss rest of England's campaign with knee ligament injury

http://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/42946822

At this rate, I might need to dig out my boots !!!

CarlottaVance

NickPalmer said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.

https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895

I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.

You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.

I agree with:

Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.

Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.

IanB2

CarlottaVance said:

NickPalmer said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.

https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895

I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.

You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.

I agree with:

Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.

Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.

Something-must-be-done-ism is no answer.

TheScreamingEagles

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/GeorgeFoulkes/status/960635353634951170

Because Barnier isn't an MP and SoS?

Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.

Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.

Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html

You're forgetting that Davis might be needed to vote in/report to the HoC.

And he runs an entire ministry.

Barnier is a politically appointed civil servant.

Dave ran an entire country and caught Eurostar.

AlastairMeeks

NickPalmer said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.

https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895

I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.

You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.

I wasn’t in favour of intervening in Syria but I have to admit that the alternative has been pretty appalling.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/GeorgeFoulkes/status/960635353634951170

Because Barnier isn't an MP and SoS?

Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.

Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.

Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html

You're forgetting that Davis might be needed to vote in/report to the HoC.

And he runs an entire ministry.

Barnier is a politically appointed civil servant.

Dave ran an entire country and caught Eurostar.

And also flew EasyJet and shopped in Morrisons....

TheScreamingEagles

CarlottaVance said:

NickPalmer said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.

https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895

I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.

You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.

I agree with:

Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.

Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.

Yup.

It sent out the message that using chemical weapons wouldn't have any consequences for the leader using them.

Foxy

NickPalmer said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.

https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895

I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.

You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.

Staying out of Syria, or at least, not bombing both sides in the same conflict is the smartest thing since Wilson kept us out of Vietnam.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/GeorgeFoulkes/status/960635353634951170

Because Barnier isn't an MP and SoS?

Barnier and Davis have equivalent roles.

Davis is sucking on the teet of the taxpayer to live the high life.

Have you forgotten what you read in Fall Out?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-negotiations-private-raf-plane-demand-brussels-talks-european-union-eu-capitals-a8064656.html

You're forgetting that Davis might be needed to vote in/report to the HoC.

And he runs an entire ministry.

Barnier is a politically appointed civil servant.

Dave ran an entire country and caught Eurostar.

And also flew EasyJet and shopped in Morrisons....

Like me, he's a man of the people.

CarlottaVance

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

NickPalmer said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.

https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895

I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.

You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.

I agree with:

Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.

Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.

Something-must-be-done-ism is no answer.

Just not quite as bad as 'let me virtue signal and hang the consequences'....

Danny565

CarlottaVance said:

NickPalmer said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why I loathe Ed Miliband.

https://twitter.com/lopforum/status/960629179262885895

I'll never forget the look of incredulity on his face when Cameron said he would 'respect the will of the house' and saw his silly sixth form politics stunt explode in his face. After that, Obama sat on his hands, after that, Putin got stuck in....and after that, the rest is history.

You really feel that Syria would be a better place if Britain and the US had charged in and started killing people for one faction or another? I used to feel like that about Iraq, but I learned better.

I agree with:

Evidence of the use, or likely use, of banned chemical weapons in Syria should be met with a “meaningful response” within the Security Council, the United Nations disarmament affairs chief said on Monday.

Milliband blocked that, emboldened Assad and the rest is history.

Unfashionable opinion it may be, but was "emboldening Assad" such a bad thing? After all, as we've now seen, the alternative to him was probably ISIS.