politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Building the barricade. How the Conservatives are minimising t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Building the barricade. How the Conservatives are minimising their chances of picking up former Remain voters
What are government policies for? If you were to ask the average member of the public, they would probably tell you that they were to set the best way possible for running the country on the particular topic at hand.
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i.e. there are a group of Brexiteers for whom deposing May is neither necessary nor desirable.
Which means, really, they do not have the numbers.
I don’t agree.
There’s a battle going on inside govt and inside the Conservative party - what we are learning is how much Theresa May will sacrifice to remain PM and to prevent the likes of Mogg/Johnson from taking over.
And she’s doing that because she wants a Brexit policy in the public interest.
It will, depending on who leads the Conservatives into GE2022, be seen as a straight choice between a government that increasingly looks bereft of ideas led by tired and discredited figures (if led by TMay or another from the old guard), vs a radical plan of action by a hard left Corbynite administration. The Lib Dems will struggle to be heard as they were in 2017, leaving us with a binary choice between muddling on as we are now, or embracing radical socialism.
Ultimately GE2022 will hinge on whether or not there is a feelgood factor - how will the economy be performing? What will the housing market look like? Have people had a pay rise this year? And whether or not the Conservatives can find enough jam to splurge - on the railways? lowering tuition fees or cancelling student debt? extending help to buy? - to convince swing voters to support them.
The fanatics and ultras of both sides see everything through a Brexit lens, the vast majority of the electorate don't, and certainly won't by 2022.
Baker, Rees Mogg and Duncan Smith are clearly worried that the reports MIGHT change people's minds. Otherwise they wouldn't be so anxious to impugn the motives of those creating them.
Mrs May knows this.
It is why there wont be any of the following:
- a second referendum
- a SM and CU* proposal
- a reversal of Brexit
* THE customs union. I fully expect us to have A customs arrangement
A bit different to our lot.
That is "moderate" Brexit.
Which all rather suggests that the group of people who demand a "JRM" Brexit do not hold sway.
I guess looking back the word "Brexiteer" was a bit confusing. The 52% have power, the JRM set do not.
Although I have no doubt that the Mail and the Sun will blame "Brussels' for the impending downturn, and urge a rally round the flag.
"The denigration of “citizens of nowhere”"
This was actually criticism of multinational companies that didn't pay tax to any country. That is actually reaching across the left-right divide by a Tory. It was cynically spun by Remainers as being about foreigners.
"The use of EU citizens as bargaining counters"
Amazingly, this is a criticism which is never directed at Angela Merkel or the EU. That is because it is a ridiculous criticism. Obviously, both sides wanted to make a deal but had to make sure there was reciprocity for their own citizens. Again, cynical spinning by Remainers.
"The complicity with the language of the tabloids when they attacked the judiciary as enemies of the people and Remain supporters as saboteurs."
Clearly terrible headlines, but given no government wants to set a precedent of disapproving (or therefor approving for those they don't comment on) on every tabloid headline, they can't get involved.
The lack of anything substantial on this list shows what a weak case it is.
For the referendum was not just a vote to withdraw from the EU. It was about something broader – something that the European Union had come to represent.
It was about a sense – deep, profound and let’s face it often justified – that many people have today that the world works well for a privileged few, but not for them.
(BTW it's 'different from.')
As for Tory remain voters - I would expect they are disproportionately located in London and the South east, generally live in nice areas in nice houses and do professional jobs perhaps in the City. They may not like Brexit but they may fear John McDonnell in No 11 even more!
But in reality the vast majority of voters outside the bubble won't be voting on Brexit in 2022. As in 2017 it will be issues like the NHS, social care and how you pay for it, housing, student fees crime that decide votes etc.
The debate was reframed afterwards but in reality Brexit was barely discussed in the last 4 weeks of the 2017 campaign as the Labour and Tory positions on the issue were pretty much aligned and many leave voters were happy to back Labour as they believed it was settled Labour policy. If you wanted to stop Brexit - and that really decided your vote - you could have joined the 8 per cent who voted LD.
Divide and rule has always been a very effective electoral strategy for the Tories in the past.
https://twitter.com/speccoffeehouse/status/960170581604872192
And of course as Robert Kennedy once said - GDP measures everything except that which actually makes life worthwhile. It doesn't measure as he said family, devotion to country, compassion, culture, health or indeed the integrity of civil servants and politicians. More Money and more GDP doesn't always buy you happiness if you can't afford to buy a secure home for your family anymore or provide for your kids to have a decent future.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/may/24/robert-kennedy-gdp
Worth noting that stockmarkets here and in the USA look rather peaky, and as RCS1000 points out, a downturn in consumer spending long overdue, independent of Brexit.
If the Treasury forecasts are correct....... Well they aren't always. We are of course due a stock market correction - but that assumes the Ponzi money printing schemes which have been introduced since 2008 can ever be allowed to burst.
And if May or the Tories aren't the answer - will Corbyn like Kinnock be seen as the safe alternative? He is hardly Blair or Wilson.
https://twitter.com/RichardAngell/status/960164032777981957
I can understand their perspective if you view it through the prism of Brexit consuming your every waking thought but the reality, for the vast majority of voters on both sides, is that Brexit is settled as a destination with just the route to be finalised.
The Remainers would be far better served taking the honest option of having an open and frank discussion with the electorate at the next GE about the benefits of re-joining the EU and fully integrating with the project.
My feeling is that they are terrified of this option because they know the chances of convincing voters to re-join is next to zero, which is strange because you would think that their confident assertions of economic Armageddon would provide a clear opportunity to immerse the UK in the centre of the EU rather than have us lurking moodily and unhelpful on the fringes.
For the last few ultra-remainers health and sanity i'd suggest that just 'get over it'...as the kids say.
I'm not going to disagree with your contention that GDP per capita is what matters, but it is worth remembering this: in a situation where the TFR is well below replacement levels, then a focus on near term GDP per capita will result in very serious long term problems. For, while it is a pyramid scheme to keep importing people to raise GDP, it is equally a pyramid scheme to have an ever increasing number of retirees supported by a diminishing number of workers. (See Japan.)
And on growth in GDP, there is the same long-term, short-term split. Imagine that there were two countries: one with the things you mention (compassion, culture, devotion to family, etc), and one with 0.5% faster GDP growth per year. Over a five year period, who wouldn't want to be in the former? They're only 5% poorer and have a bunch of things that make life there better. But fast forward 50 years, when the people in the former country are only half as rich? Then you see the exodus of the brightest and the best (see Ireland) in the 1950s, 60s and 70s.
10-year us bond yields up, heading to 3%.
Steerpike suspects describing Brexiteers as snake oil salesmen doesn’t do much to advance the argument that civil servants are neutral on the topic…
However, that didn't happen and we are where we are. One of the very few likelihoods now is that we are wrong when we talk of a 2022 GE. That is unlikely to happen. There will be a change of Conservative leader and that will certainly not be in May 2022. Most probable is late 2020, possible early 2021. The new leader will surely need a mandate and go to the country within six months of their selection.
To say Brexit will have no effect is to say that WWII had no effect on the 1945 GE result. Playing on it will probably be counter productive for anyone who tries, regardless of the consequences by then.
I have ALWAYS thought Corbyn came over much better that his detractors alleged. Now, he is getting much better at it, not worse. But, to me his policies could not be more repulsive and dangerous - but that is only me - and I wouldn't starve if he were elected. Of course there are few other Labour spokesmen and women who are not repellant on telly - they seem unable as yet to sort that one.
When we Tories ran "New Labour, New Danger" every single thing which was said was understatement, not overstatement. There was no aspect of the Blair Brown government which did not turn out to be worse than we said it would be in 1997.
When the next GE comes the Tory Party will need a clever and engaging leader advocating policies which are popular but with a vague prospect that they are at least in spirit capable of working.
The one thing the Tory Party does have is time. There is a premise behind this and many recent thread headers that the party will jump off a cliff. Clearly that would be suicide and won't happen. Of course as in the 1990s it might get to the stage where it falls off the cliff and for that reason it should avoid getting too close to the edge. So, I think Mrs May is safe, at least until late 2020 and the premise behind this and many other thread headers is false.
https://youtu.be/locW-9S00VU
Matthew d'Ancona: This Brexit mess cannot go on. Theresa May must stand down now
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/04/brexit-mess-theresa-may-tories?CMP=twt_gu
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/957558883433828353
It's ours, I tell you. I know those bloody French stole it in Tudor times, but it's properly English and they should never have been allowed to keep it. We should take it back, by force if need be, so they can enjoy the rights of being outside the EU and have the chance to kick out all those pesky migrants.
(I'm practising for a gig where I have to defend Spain's claim to Gibraltar. How did I do?)
Dave would have won the referendum 95% to 5% if the deal included France honouring the Treaty of Troyes.
Gibraltar is Spain's, we need to accept this, will help with the Brexit talks.
How about giving Gibraltar to Spain on a 99 year lease, then having a referendum in Gibraltar if they'd want to join Spain?
Vince was interesting to listen to - I was surprised he didn’t say the Lib Dem’s would definitely campaign to rejoin the EU if we do leave.
Thankfully we're unlikely to be analysing every word of Tessy's in 30 years time, unless Brexit turns out to be a complete, blistering clusterfcuk.
Oh..
But in 2,000 more years, whose name will have endured: Hadrian or May?
The position then came to be the wholly negative "we stay in because we believe leaving would be worse" which in effect was the default REMAIN position on 23/6/16. It wasn't even lukewarm enthusiasm - it was the security a prisoner has for his cell after a long sentence and a fear of the unknown waiting outside the prison walls.
Now we are out and have to survive outside and the idea of returning to the cell doesn't look so attractive but that's not to say the country is anywhere near united in our future path because that's a debate we can't or won't or are not allowed to have.
Six Nations: Italy played better than the scoreline suggested. Pleased one bet came off, the other wasn't daft but sadly didn't come off.
Not a great thread header from Mr Meeks. I know the most ardent Remainers are not happy about the result, but it is not obvious why the Conservatives should focus on them disproportionately, when they constitute a minority of the electorate. A reasonable number of Remainers will continue to vote Tory for economic reasons, and real anger over Brexit is not widespread enough to be a threat to Tory prospects nationally. It is however common in inner London, hence the unending media coverage.
https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/960078310314250240
Where’s the downside?
'If you believe you are a citizen of the world, you are a citizen of nowhere. You don’t understand what citizenship means.'
You'd have thought even Nick & Fiona might have spotted possible mantraps in those.
https://twitter.com/annaturley/status/960122911003762689
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Hungarian_parliamentary_election,_2018
So the next general election will be fought, not so much on Brexit as such, as on all the devastation that the Conservatives have wrought.
An despite the pessimistic tone of some PB commentators, I think the Lib Dems are gradually rebuilding their electoral base. By the next general election, we shall have a three-way choice. People will not be panicked into voting Tory again.
If he has been b) accused of Anti Semitism falsely he shouldn't be.
If either a) or b) doesn't happen its obviously a problem.
Ken is a liability as he has an obcession with Hitler not good but not sure if that passes the a) test or not.
- the PM making a stand and saying what sort of Brexit deal she wants?
- the rebel Brexiters making a stand by sending in their 48 letters?
- rebel Tory remainers making a firm stand against Brexit?
- moderate Labour MPs making a stand as above?
- the LibDems making a stand by doing something that starts a recovery?
- those always taking about a new centre force making a stand and launching one?
- Farage and Banks making a stand by launching their new political movement?
(PS - I doubt if it was John XXIII, who was Pope in the 1950s.)
EDIT - I think it must have been the Antipope John, calling himself John XXIII, who was the opponent of the Gregory XII.
https://twitter.com/usherwood/status/960213201832030210
* This is what happened with Greece and their referendum on the terms of the Eurozone bailout.
- Labour's leadership coming off the fence and making a stand on Brexit
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When are moderate Labour MPs going to make a stand and stop the destruction of their once great party?
When are moderate Tory MPs going to make a stand and stop the destruction of their once great party?
They have clear distance between themselves and the Tories not just on Brexit, but also on public services...