politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now isn’t the time to push May, whatever the temptation

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.

As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.

But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out

The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.

It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.

I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.

Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.

Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.

The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.

And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.

After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.

Events must be a real shock to Brussels.

a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.

You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?

Nah, I mean stuff like this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/business/theresa-may-brexit-davos.html

1 article in the NYT vs a systemic analysis by a PR Company? Rightyo!

IanB2 said:

Off topic (although actually very much on topic):

It’s speculation in the property market that is fuelling stratospheric house price rises, not shortage of supply

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/27/building-homes-britain-housing-crisis

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.

As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.

But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out

The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.

It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.

I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.

Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.

Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.

The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.

And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.

After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.

Events must be a real shock to Brussels.

a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.

You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?

Nah, I mean stuff like this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/business/theresa-may-brexit-davos.html

That says nothing about the power of the UK and everything about the power of Theresa May.

If you were a global titan would you want to be sat listening to Theresa May drone on about internet security? Our own nation can't stand her, her own party can't stand her, why should anyone else?

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

Casino_Royale said:

The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.

It knows, if it doesn'tU manufactured goods.

I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.

Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.

Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.

The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.

And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.

After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.

Events must be a real shock to Brussels.

If you look ata significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.

Its amazing, nobody now seems to have predicted a recession after a Leave vote.

Business investment and public spending have increased so that leaves you with meaningless drivel about 'soft power'.

You also said we should offer £60bn to leave the EU and doubtless would have willingly paid double once Brussels asked for it.

Nor do I doubt that you were also a ra-ra boy for when Blair gave away tens of billions of the Rebate for nothing in return.

Yep, I’d have paid the £60 billion straight off the bat, no doubt about it at all. The stability and goodwill that would have created would have led to higher growth levels, more investment, etc. And we’d be much further on in the negotiations. If Brussels had then upped the demand, it would have given the UK a great opportunity to refuse while creating significant problems for many governments of individual member states. But then my priority would always been getting the best deal for the UK, not the most flattering headlines in the Daily Mail.

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.

As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.

But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out

The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.

It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.

I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.

Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.

Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.

The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.

And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.

After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.

Events must be a real shock to Brussels.

a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.

You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?

An index that ranks New Zealand seven places above China...

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.

But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out

The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.

It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.

I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.

Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.

Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.

The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.

And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.

After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.

Events must be a real shock to Brussels.

If you look at myignificant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.

Has it happened?

I thought the tax revenues were actually beating forecasts [for a change] so how is that less money?

Our growth rate is lower than it otherwise would have been. That means less income for the government.

And what's your evidence for that ?

The only thing we know for a fact is that the economy has done a lot better than it was predicted to do by the 'experts'.

Not all experts. But if you wish to believe there has been no Brexit effect on growth, so be it.

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.

As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.

But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out

The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.

It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.

I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.

Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.

Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.

The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.

And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.

a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.

You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?

Nah, I mean stuff like this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/business/theresa-may-brexit-davos.html

1 article in the NYT vs a systemic analysis by a PR Company? Rightyo!

One article LOL.

https://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/587f5b811200003e0aad833e.jpeg?ops=scalefit_630_noupscale&imgrefurl=http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/daily-mails-theresa-may-front-page-could-not-be-more-different-to-die-welts-little-britain_uk_587f5710e4b0831b7c6e4a92&docid=Xl483L2YUxONCM&tbnid=BcWhwG614C8rnM:&vet=1&w=630&h=873&source=sh/x/im

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.

As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.

But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out

The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.

It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won'tignificant purchases of EU manufactured goods.

I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.

Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.

Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.

The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.

And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.

a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.

You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?

Nah, I mean stuff like this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/business/theresa-may-brexit-davos.html

1 article in the NYT vs a systemic analysis by a PR Company? Rightyo!

One article LOL.

https://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/587f5b811200003e0aad833e.jpeg?ops=scalefit_630_noupscale&imgrefurl=http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/daily-mails-theresa-may-front-page-could-not-be-more-different-to-die-welts-little-britain_uk_587f5710e4b0831b7c6e4a92&docid=Xl483L2YUxONCM&tbnid=BcWhwG614C8rnM:&vet=1&w=630&h=873&source=sh/x/im

The plural of “anecdote” isn’t “data”

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.

As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.

But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out

The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.

It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.

I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.

Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.

Lets think for a monent on what the

a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.

You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?

Nah, I mean stuff like this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/business/theresa-may-brexit-davos.html

1 article in the NYT vs a systemic analysis by a PR Company? Rightyo!

One article LOL.

https://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/587f5b811200003e0aad833e.jpeg?ops=scalefit_630_noupscale&imgrefurl=http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/daily-mails-theresa-may-front-page-could-not-be-more-different-to-die-welts-little-britain_uk_587f5710e4b0831b7c6e4a92&docid=Xl483L2YUxONCM&tbnid=BcWhwG614C8rnM:&vet=1&w=630&h=873&source=sh/x/im

The plural of “anecdote” isn’t “data”

Soft power in intangible. That’s the whole point.

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

May is only in place because of Brexit.

May is a transient politician not the country.

The article compares to Macron getting "rockstar" treatment as if that represents the two nations but the fact that currently Macron has star power as an individual while May does not. The same goes for Trudeau too.

Do you honestly think that if Hollande was still limping on in power but plunging depths of unpopularity and waiting for someone metaphorically put him out of his misery that he too would have got "rockstar" treatment?

Oddly enough if Corbyn had actually won the 2017 election and attended the event or one like it then he likely would have got the rockstar treatment Macron got.

Until he told the execs that he was putting corporation tax up to 100%.

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

Casino_Royale said:

The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.

It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.

I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.

Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.

Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.

The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.

And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.

After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.

Events must be a real shock to Brussels.

If you look at my pre-referendum posts you’ll see things are panning out almost exactly as I expected. I was not one of those predicting the economy would crash. My concern was lower business investment, less money for public spending and a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.

Has it happened?

I thought the tax revenues were actually beating forecasts [for a change] so how is that less money?

Our growth rate is lower than it otherwise would have been. That means less income for the government.

And what's your evidence for that ?

The only thing we know for a fact is that the economy has done a lot better than it was predicted to do by the 'experts'.

As have most economies, and more so. The US, and most particularly the Eurozone.

SouthamObserver said:

I’d have got what the government got, but a lot earlier - to the UK’s great benefit. I understand why you’d love Tony Blair to be my hero, but that doesn’t mean he is.

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

May is only in place because of Brexit.

May is a transient politician not the country.

The article compares to Macron getting "rockstar" treatment as if that represents the two nations but the fact that currently Macron has star power as an individual while May does not. The same goes for Trudeau too.

Do you honestly think that if Hollande was still limping on in power but plunging depths of unpopularity and waiting for someone metaphorically put him out of his misery that he too would have got "rockstar" treatment?

Oddly enough if Corbyn had actually won the 2017 election and attended the event or one like it then he likely would have got the rockstar treatment Macron got.

In Carlotta’s soft power ratings, France has climbed above the US and UK into first place.

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

I’d have got what the government got, but a lot earlier - to the UK’s great benefit. I understand why you’d love Tony Blair to be my hero, but that doesn’t mean he is.

No you'd have got what the EU got a lot earlier. The UK government got the EU to agree to a final bill that will likely come in under £60bn, you'd have conceded that as a first point and they'd have come back demanding more. You'd either have to concede £100bn in which case we'd be worse off or refuse to concede that and fight the same battles our government fought but on more expensive ground.

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

May is only in place because of Brexit.

May is a transient politician not the country.

The article compares to Macron getting "rockstar" treatment as if that represents the two nations but the fact that currently Macron has star power as an individual while May does not. The same goes for Trudeau too.

Do you honestly think that if Hollande was still limping on in power but plunging depths of unpopularity and waiting for someone metaphorically put him out of his misery that he too would have got "rockstar" treatment?

Oddly enough if Corbyn had actually won the 2017 election and attended the event or one like it then he likely would have got the rockstar treatment Macron got.

In Carlotta’s soft power ratings, France has climbed above the US and UK into first place.

Which represents Macron's personal qualities, not France's national ones. Same reason the USA has dropped implausibly from first to below us.

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

May is only in place because of Brexit.

May is a transient politician not the country.

The article compares to Macron getting "rockstar" treatment as if that represents the two nations but the fact that currently Macron has star power as an individual while May does not. The same goes for Trudeau too.

Do you honestly think that if Hollande was still limping on in power but plunging depths of unpopularity and waiting for someone metaphorically put him out of his misery that he too would have got "rockstar" treatment?

Oddly enough if Corbyn had actually won the 2017 election and attended the event or one like it then he likely would have got the rockstar treatment Macron got.

In Carlotta’s soft power ratings, France has climbed above the US and UK into first place.

Which represents Macron's personal qualities, not France's national ones. Same reason the USA has dropped implausibly from first to below us.

So, in other words, Soft Power is largely about perception. I agree.

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

I’d have got what the government got, but a lot earlier - to the UK’s great benefit. I understand why you’d love Tony Blair to be my hero, but that doesn’t mean he is.

No you'd have got what the EU got a lot earlier. The UK government got the EU to agree to a final bill that will likely come in under £60bn, you'd have conceded that as a first point and they'd have come back demanding more. You'd either have to concede £100bn in which case we'd be worse off or refuse to concede that and fight the same battles our government fought but on more expensive ground.

No, I’d have got a better deal for the UK than the government did; but worse headlines in the Daily Mail.

How would your deal have been better? The EU would have demanded £100bn and you'd have achieved what precisely?

No, the EU would not have demanded £100 billion.

Bit silly this, isn’t it?

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

I’d have got what the government got, but a lot earlier - to the UK’s great benefit. I understand why you’d love Tony Blair to be my hero, but that doesn’t mean he is.

No you'd have got what the EU got a lot earlier. The UK government got the EU to agree to a final bill that will likely come in under £60bn, you'd have conceded that as a first point and they'd have come back demanding more. You'd either have to concede £100bn in which case we'd be worse off or refuse to concede that and fight the same battles our government fought but on more expensive ground.

No, I’d have got a better deal for the UK than the government did; but worse headlines in the Daily Mail.

How would your deal have been better? The EU would have demanded £100bn and you'd have achieved what precisely?

No, the EU would not have demanded £100 billion.

Bit silly this, isn’t it?

Why wouldn't they? That was being mooted by their sources and the Financial Times etc so if you'd rolled over and played dead for £60 what would have stopped them going for £100?

rottenborough said:

CarlottaVance said:

Maybe career politicians aren't all bad:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/956871120384217088

Quite brilliant!

another_richard said:

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.

As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.

But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out

The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.

It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.

I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.

Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.

Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.

The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.

And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.

After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.

Events must be a real shock to Brussels.

a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.

You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?

Nah, I mean stuff like this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/business/theresa-may-brexit-davos.html

Ah the NYT what next? the Guardian?

The NYT, another from the alphabet's soup with a record of predicting doom and disaster:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/opinion/this-is-just-the-start-of-the-brexits-economic-disaster.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

Mortimer said:

RoyalBlue said:

It’s quite the paradox. Many Tory MPs are plotting to remove a leader who won an election (albeit by the skin of her teeth), has them on 40% in the polls, and still has plenty of goodwill in the country at large. This is part of the problem with our incestuous Westminster political and media culture; MPs and journalists talk themselves into catastrophising when there is no sense of crisis amongst the public.

She should stay until June 2019, then trigger a long leadership contest over the summer.

I quite agree, though like you I fear that the view at Westminster is not the same at all.

I also have no fear that we'll go for close alignment under May - the slapdown of Hammond this week, and indeed his own speech Davos, suggests he has lost the argument.

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

Casino_Royale said:

The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.

It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.

I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.

Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.

Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.

The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.

And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.

After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.

Events must be a real shock to Brussels.

a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.

You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?

Nah, I mean stuff like this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/business/theresa-may-brexit-davos.html

Ah the NYT what next? the Guardian?

The NYT, another from the alphabet's soup with a record of predicting doom and disaster:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/opinion/this-is-just-the-start-of-the-brexits-economic-disaster.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

An opinion expressed in a newspaper is not the same as a newspaper expressing its opinion.

DoubleCarpet said:

another_richard said:

DoubleCarpet said:

Czech Presidential

(Just in case anyone else is interested!!)

Polls close 2pm local 1pm UK, for 2nd round between Zeman and Drahos.

http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live

https://volby.idnes.cz/

https://www.idnes.cz/

https://volby.cz/pls/prez2018/pe2?xjazyk=EN

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128255728

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_presidential_election,_2018#Results

I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!

Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,

DC

(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)

Why do the polls close so early ?

Do the voters then go to a football match ?

Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.

AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).

Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.

Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.

Mortimer said:

RoyalBlue said:

It’s quite the paradox. Many Tory MPs are plotting to remove a leader who won an election (albeit by the skin of her teeth), has them on 40% in the polls, and still has plenty of goodwill in the country at large. This is part of the problem with our incestuous Westminster political and media culture; MPs and journalists talk themselves into catastrophising when there is no sense of crisis amongst the public.

She should stay until June 2019, then trigger a long leadership contest over the summer.

I quite agree, though like you I fear that the view at Westminster is not the same at all.

I also have no fear that we'll go for close alignment under May - the slapdown of Hammond this week, and indeed his own speech Davos, suggests he has lost the argument.

RoyalBlue said:

Mortimer said:

RoyalBlue said:

It’s quite the paradox. Many Tory MPs are plotting to remove a leader who won an election (albeit by the skin of her teeth), has them on 40% in the polls, and still has plenty of goodwill in the country at large. This is part of the problem with our incestuous Westminster political and media culture; MPs and journalists talk themselves into catastrophising when there is no sense of crisis amongst the public.

She should stay until June 2019, then trigger a long leadership contest over the summer.

I quite agree, though like you I fear that the view at Westminster is not the same at all.

I also have no fear that we'll go for close alignment under May - the slapdown of Hammond this week, and indeed his own speech Davos, suggests he has lost the argument.

The sensible stance is that high alignment at the beginning is a necessity. It is like separating the saucer section at warp speed; movements immediately afterward need to be gradual to avoid disaster, but once some distance has been achieved, each part can choose their own course.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigelb said:

You clearly have little knowledge of what he did at education, dismissing ydoether's experience like that.
Similarly at the primary level, he entirely abolished a reasonably functioning national system of assessment, and told schools to sort out a replacement from themselves. Schools are to this day still struggling to implement a replacement system.
There are other examples.

Gove has a remarkable confidence in his ideas, and is not easily dissuaded that he is wrong. That can be a strength, but it can also be an enormous weakness.

What i have is experience of putting 2 kids through our atrocious education system. Being a teacher inside that system is not, for me, any recommendation of insight or authority.

When it comes to primary schools all I have heard for the last 2 decades is teachers screaming about how we should not have the State imposing centralised assessments or targets. It is a bit rich to them moan when they get their wishes.

Teaching used to be an honourable profession. I certainly don't regard it as such anymore.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DoubleCarpet said:

another_richard said:

DoubleCarpet said:

Czech Presidential

(Just in case anyone else is interested!!)

Polls close 2pm local 1pm UK, for 2nd round between Zeman and Drahos.

http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live

https://volby.idnes.cz/

https://www.idnes.cz/

https://volby.cz/pls/prez2018/pe2?xjazyk=EN

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128255728

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_presidential_election,_2018#Results

I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!

Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,

DC

(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)

Why do the polls close so early ?

Do the voters then go to a football match ?

Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.

AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).

Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.

Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.

Need to compare those polling stations against their first round result

DoubleCarpet said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DoubleCarpet said:

another_richard said:

DoubleCarpet said:

Czech Presidential

(Just in case anyone else is interested!!)

Polls close 2pm local 1pm UK, for 2nd round between Zeman and Drahos.

http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live

https://volby.idnes.cz/

https://www.idnes.cz/

https://volby.cz/pls/prez2018/pe2?xjazyk=EN

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128255728

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_presidential_election,_2018#Results

I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!

Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,

DC

(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)

Why do the polls close so early ?

Do the voters then go to a football match ?

Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.

AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).

Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.

Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.

Need to compare those polling stations against their first round result

Yes agree - anyway we're 33% counted just 45 mins in, and Zeman's score is now just under 56%.

Drahos is at 68% in Prague (may be only region which he wins) so this could be close, but my gut is still that Zeman wins with 51-52%, we'll see!!

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DoubleCarpet said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DoubleCarpet said:

another_richard said:

DoubleCarpet said:

Czech Presidential

(Just in case anyone else is interested!!)

Polls close 2pm local 1pm UK, for 2nd round between Zeman and Drahos.

http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live

https://volby.idnes.cz/

https://www.idnes.cz/

https://volby.cz/pls/prez2018/pe2?xjazyk=EN

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128255728

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_presidential_election,_2018#Results

I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!

Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,

DC

(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)

Why do the polls close so early ?

Do the voters then go to a football match ?

Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.

AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).

Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.

Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.

Need to compare those polling stations against their first round result

Yes agree - anyway we're 33% counted just 45 mins in, and Zeman's score is now just under 56%.

Drahos is at 68% in Prague (may be only region which he wins) so this could be close, but my gut is still that Zeman wins with 51-52%, we'll see!!

I think about that, unfortunately for my wallet.

Worse, someone gave me 2/1 on Zeman last night, wish I'd taken more!!
At least it gives me evens on Drahos, pretty much. And pocket money only.

DoubleCarpet said:

DoubleCarpet said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DoubleCarpet said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DoubleCarpet said:

another_richard said:

DoubleCarpet said:

Czech Presidential

(Just in case anyone else is interested!!)

Polls close 2pm local 1pm UK, for 2nd round between Zeman and Drahos.

http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live

https://volby.idnes.cz/

https://www.idnes.cz/

https://volby.cz/pls/prez2018/pe2?xjazyk=EN

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128255728

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_presidential_election,_2018#Results

I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!

Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,

DC

(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)

Why do the polls close so early ?

Do the voters then go to a football match ?

Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.

AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).

Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.

Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.

Need to compare those polling stations against their first round result

Yes agree - anyway we're 33% counted just 45 mins in, and Zeman's score is now just under 56%.

Drahos is at 68% in Prague (may be only region which he wins) so this could be close, but my gut is still that Zeman wins with 51-52%, we'll see!!

I think about that, unfortunately for my wallet.

Worse, someone gave me 2/1 on Zeman last night, wish I'd taken more!!
At least it gives me evens on Drahos, pretty much. And pocket money only.

Ok I think Zeman's got this now - 48% counted, he's on 55.08%.

(Famous last words!)

Out of interest where did you get 2/1 Zeman last night?! That sounds like a massive price, he's been under evens on Betfair for a few days now.

ydoethur said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

When it comes to primary schools all I have heard for the last 2 decades is teachers screaming about how we should not have the State imposing centralised assessments or targets. It is a bit rich to them moan when they get their wishes.

In the secondary system, the target culture is not merely endemic - thanks, again, to Gove - but the centralised assessment criteria are still there and now totally nonsensical, as I have just demonstrated by quoting the one for History. It says that the better your performance, the worse your grade. I imagine it will not be like that in practice, but something akin to sanity can be achieved only by ignoring Gove and his acolytes.

What is genuinely puzzling is that so many of his more fervent admirers cannot see that because he is such a bad administrator he has often ended up doing the precise opposite of what he intended.

Scott_P said:

@IanDunt: Everyone knows transition needs longer than 2 years. It's politically unsayable. Everyone knows it makes more sense to extend A50. It is politically unsayable.

@IanDunt: The fact that the rational thing to do clashes so brutally with what is politically sayable suggests something is wrong with the project as a whole.

DoubleCarpet said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DoubleCarpet said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DoubleCarpet said:

another_richard said:

DoubleCarpet said:

Czech Presidential

(Just in case anyone else is interested!!)

Polls close 2pm local 1pm UK, for 2nd round between Zeman and Drahos.

http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live

https://volby.idnes.cz/

https://www.idnes.cz/

https://volby.cz/pls/prez2018/pe2?xjazyk=EN

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128255728

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_presidential_election,_2018#Results

I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!

Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,

DC

(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)

Why do the polls close so early ?

Do the voters then go to a football match ?

Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.

AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).

Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.

Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.

Need to compare those polling stations against their first round result

Yes agree - anyway we're 33% counted just 45 mins in, and Zeman's score is now just under 56%.

Drahos is at 68% in Prague (may be only region which he wins) so this could be close, but my gut is still that Zeman wins with 51-52%, we'll see!!

I think about that, unfortunately for my wallet.

Worse, someone gave me 2/1 on Zeman last night, wish I'd taken more!!
At least it gives me evens on Drahos, pretty much. And pocket money only.

Ok I think Zeman's got this now - 48% counted, he's on 55.08%.

(Famous last words!)

Scott_P said:

@IanDunt: Everyone knows transition needs longer than 2 years. It's politically unsayable. Everyone knows it makes more sense to extend A50. It is politically unsayable.

@IanDunt: The fact that the rational thing to do clashes so brutally with what is politically sayable suggests something is wrong with the project as a whole.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?

Well it's UKIP vs the Lib Dems. So take your pick really...

(UKIP has won)

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?

Well it's UKIP vs the Lib Dems. So take your pick really...

(UKIP has won)

brendan16 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?

Well it's UKIP vs the Lib Dems. So take your pick really...

(UKIP has won)

Is it confirmed Zeman has won then? Brussels won't like that!

TheWhiteRabbit said:

brendan16 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?

Well it's UKIP vs the Lib Dems. So take your pick really...

(UKIP has won)

Is it confirmed Zeman has won then? Brussels won't like that!

Well, I'll give you 100/1 on Drahos.

Charles said:

FF43 said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.

As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.

But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out

The terms are within packages offered by the EU. The three basic packages are a limited bilateral trade agreement (Canada), piggy backing the EU system on a take it or leave it basis (Norway) or full participation via membership. None of these packages is particularly appealing given the situation we are in, but we have to choose one or otherwise we are ejected to outer space (WTO), which is worse again. Once we have chosen a package it will be negotiated according to the EU rule book and timetable. Southam, I think, expects a version of Norway because it means minimum disruption while formally leaving the EU. The consequence is that we commit to doing what we are told going forward. I agree that outcome is likely, but it is by no means nailed on. Brexit could get very messy.

Macron, the Italian PM and the Swedes are happy to include financial services.

Every treaty is bespoke

brendan16 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

brendan16 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DavidL said:

As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?

Well it's UKIP vs the Lib Dems. So take your pick really...

(UKIP has won)

Is it confirmed Zeman has won then? Brussels won't like that!

Well, I'll give you 100/1 on Drahos.

90 per cent of the vote in and Zeman is up by 6 per cent so I won't take the bet. But the result has closed a lot in the last few minutes.

Is Prague outstanding and is that enough to alter the result.

http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live

Recidivist said:

I don't know if this has been discussed, but the story is that one of the hardline Europhobe MPs didn't really understand how the EU works.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/heres-a-leaked-whatsapp-chat-showing-tory-leavers-confusion?utm_term=.qdJY0ZVexW#.sd0mkND2w8

This whole issue is too serious for partisan point scoring. But it does make you wonder just how many of the people who are pushing for Brexit actually understand what they are doing.

RobD said:

Afternoon all. I see we are discussing Brexit again.

brendan16 said:

Recidivist said:

I don't know if this has been discussed, but the story is that one of the hardline Europhobe MPs didn't really understand how the EU works.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/heres-a-leaked-whatsapp-chat-showing-tory-leavers-confusion?utm_term=.qdJY0ZVexW#.sd0mkND2w8

This whole issue is too serious for partisan point scoring. But it does make you wonder just how many of the people who are pushing for Brexit actually understand what they are doing.

So your view that there are supposedly large numbers ignorant pro Brexit MPs is based on one whats app post by Nadine Dorries - really?. Kemi Badenoch put her right - politely but curtly.

How many remain MPs understand the difference between being in the EU customs union and being in a customs union with the EU. We are leaving the EU customs union but that doesn't mean we may not be in a customs union with the EU.