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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now isn’t the time to push May, whatever the temptation
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now isn’t the time to push May, whatever the temptation
Only one of the three traditional British parties currently has a leader – and that one by happenstance. To lead is by definition a dynamic thing. It is to set oneself at the head of something and take it somewhere in such a way that others follow. It is not a quality granted simply by virtue of holding a given office.
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(Jacob Cream Crackers and Andrea Leadsom being the obvious exceptions)
I think May will stay because there's no realistic alternative. At least until March next year.
I understand why but she has become more popular, from her peak unpopularity it could seem a bit of a mess (or more so) to the public.
I am now in the run in to new exams at GCSE, designed by Gove. Three weeks ago, the entire assessment mechanism was changed. All the question weightings, all the markschemes, all the layouts.
At the same time, OFQUAL have also made it harder to get a level 5 than to get a level 8 in history - for a 5 you have to analyse and evaluate, for an 8 you only have to evaluate. In theory at least therefore you can get a level 8 with a one sentence answer, but need three paragraphs for a 5.
And while we are on the subject, the specification was drawn up in such a hurry that I keep finding errors in it. For example, I am meant to teach my students about the university system in England in the aftermath of the Norman Conquest - except there was no university system in England at the Norman conquest or for over a century thereafter (unhelpfully Wikipedia and Oxford University's website both wrongly state that the university was founded in 1096, confusing it with the Abbey Choir School - but the fact a few teenage computer programmers are ignorant f the facts is no excuse for a trained historian getting it wrong).
This is down to Gove and his inability to do things - even things that might be good in practice - slowly and with due regard to logistics. If he were in charge we'd have a transition deal that was far less forensically prepared than one by Davis - and that should not be taken as an endorsement of Davis. He'd probably absent-mindedly declare that all banks need to be based in Loudon instead of London for regulatory purposes and sign off without noticing he's handed over our entire banking sector to the Americans.
The only thing to say in Gove's favour is he is not Nicky Morgan - who is so stupid she thought the head of OFQUAL who oversaw this total shambles would are a good candidate as head of OFSTED, which is now also not unexpectedly collapsing in an undignified heap of chaos, inconsistency and understaffing.
Stasis can survive as long as there are no decisive decisions to be made. But there are.
As I said yesterday, I think May's 38% rating as doing a good job when virually nobody in frontline politics would privately agree is actually quite impressive. David's reasons why she isn't are, as he says, mostly related to whether she's a good party leader, and the public cares little about that. They see someone of perhaps limited ability doing her best in a difficult situation without any obvious catastrophes. They don't especially see why she should be replaced.
But that will apply even more after Brexit. I can well see the public feeling OK, she's done the best of a bad job, well done, and getting up to say 45% approval rating. A leadership challenge at that point will look grossly unfair and driven by personal ambition rather than the good of the country. So if there isn't a challenge now, we should see a real possibility that she'll be leader at the next GE.
They have nothing to lose as the way it's going there isn't going to be a Brexit under Theresa May.
One area I do disagree on though is that "prime ministers are rarely short of self-confidence". Possibly in the general, but in the specific case of May, I think the election in June destroyed what self-confidence she had. It already looked to be in short supply before the election - her halting performances at PMQs were never those of somebody oozing self-confidence. But running an election that was all about Me! Me! Me! - and then to be rejected, well that is going to be a blow to anybody's ego.
Add into the mix that her hand-picked Praetorian Guard of advisors were the ones who let her down so badly in their advice on the campaign. They have (correctly) had to leave the stage - but that void will further hurt her self confidence. Her choice of advisors went badly wrong. Is there anybody she can now trust? Especially when she must now doubt her own judgment.
And whatever self-confidence remains isn't helped when EVERYBODY knows you are on the way out - the only question is when. No sane person will say she can front another election. So she has to go before that. But a minority government is not entirely able to pick the time of that next election. That election could come sooner than wanted. A Conservative Party that ends up going into an election fronted by somebody that nobody wants there would be a disaster. The Party would deserve to be given a kicking. But that isn't the worst of it. The same MPs who let that happen have a genuine deep-seated fear of what damage a Corbyn Government could do to the country they love. Preventing that is high on their list of priorities.
Not easy at the moment, being a Tory MP with a lettet to Sir Graham Brady sat in your pocket.
Thank you for yesterday's story. It led to a very interesting discussion about being willing to risk losing something in the hope of getting something better. And it's always good to remind teenagers facing exams that there are worse things in life than revision!
Who the Tories actually choose is another matter. David would have as good an insight as anyone, I think. Remember this is a party that enthusiastically embraced Iain Duncan Smith and is competing with a Labour party that chose Corbyn.
Why she was ever promoted to cabinet I'll never understand...
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/956928083893850112
So Corbyn bestrides the stage a colossus and May is nowhere to be seen?
https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/956937144215490560
People don't like change. Businesses hate change.
But when it is forced upon them by necessity, they get used to it.
You keep finding problems and think that is going to lead to us being involved in a Federal Europe.
Yet you don't seem to see the biggest problem with that - that the British people don't want that.
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/957177143473131520
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-italy-could-be-britains-most-influential-ally-during-brexit-11224056
On the other hand it just takes 48 pissed off MPs to write a letter and she's gone. Truly a sword of Damocles hangs by a thread
The A50 deal will be done, the Heads of Terms for the new deal will have been laid out, and it'll be about sealing the deal with the EU, other trade deals with other countries, and what sort of vision the Conservative Party wants to pitch to the country in GE2022.
Of course, that new leader will have 2 1/2 years to soil themselves in office, and might not be the freshest thing on the menu by the time the election comes round, but my view is that's better than further years of directionless drift under May.
The problem is that the EU sees rejection of its treaty changes, a reluctance to pay more money over and consistently low turnout in EU-wide elections as evidence that they need more integration to bolster its legitimacy. Verhofstadt's famous comment that Brexit shows just how popular the EU is a spectacular example of this peculiar thinking, but Lisbon is perhaps the better one. Or Greece, where the evidence that the single currency imposed by blatantly breaking the rules had ruined the country was blithely ignored and Greece forced to give up more of its sovereignty, the loss of which was partly to blame for the problems, in exchange for a rescue the EU's stupidity and overt politicisation itself had made necessary.
And it is killing the EU. Which given the ramifications should it collapse, and the genuine benefits it does bring and could extend if run correctly, is not a cheering thought.
The ones with capability, courage and vision, who've also shown leadership, are Hunt and Gove. Rudd is highly professional, but I don't see much of a PM in her.
You can forget Leadsom.
Cameron: 28
Brown: 21
Blair: 25
*With the exception of Michael Gove
Who would the Party pick? It could be one of quite a lot. A huge amount would depend on the campaigns. I'm still sceptical about Rees-Mogg because I can see him getting into all sorts of problems over social policy and over naively answering questions he should deflect.
Impossible to call this one imho. There may be a vote of no confidence within days.
Yes, the logic says May won’t go, shouldn’t go, and can’t go.
But at some stage - perhaps in Spring when it is finally clear that transition does in fact mean “vassalage” (as surely we knew it would since the Florence speech!) - one can see an unholy alliance between Boris and the hard Brexit rump to oust her.
May will need to negotiate a figleaf of autonomy during transition. Presumably, the ability to negotiate new trade deals will be dressed up as a concession from the EU.
Hopefully, for May, the hard Brexiters will not realise any such negotiations could not possibly be concluded until the final nature of the UK’s relationship with the EU is clear...
https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/957186438180851712
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/956995166459650049
He was the future once...
It's also why the EU won't and cannot do a special deal for the UK. We have never understood that the EU is a multilateral construct and the messy compromise was painfully arrived at. They can't start unpicking it. It's a tragedy for us because multilateralism suits the kind of country we are, especially a rules based, liberal, open economic zone like the EU.
His method was:
1. Make sure everyone is very unhappy with the status quo.
2. Paint a vivid credible attractive picture of what could be.
3. Show people the first step towards that vision and they will take it.
May has succeeded with step one.
The other method is to see which way the people are marching and walk in front of them waving a big flag. But if they are marching in opposing directions, you have to make a choice.
Only 2 presidents since WW2 have made Official State visits to the UK - GW Bush in 2003 and Barack Obama in 2011. In addition Reagan and Clinton addressed Parliament. But otherwise, although there have been plenty of informal visits and visits to attend specific conferences, it is certainly not expected that a US president will visit the UK. May should have kept her mouth shut about it.
Trump wouldn't have wanted to be the first not to given the recent history that Dubya and Obama both got one.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-22/south-korea-tops-global-innovation-ranking-again-as-u-s-falls
Look how many EU member states are above us. Look, too, at individual factors and observe it is only the strength of our tertiary sector that keeps us close to the top 20.
Decisions taken at home - in business and government - determine our fate now, just as they have always done.
And FPT:
Maybe we could finally get Income Tax and National Insurance simplified and merged.
I do however agree with your proposed cure for the Tory party.
But, as you say, not right at this moment.
We still outrank China, Russia, Canada, New Zealand snd Australia and more than two thirds of EU members. Aren't those nations quite outward looking in different ways?
Don could always try his happy hunting ground north of the border, no one can ever be bothered to travel that far, and we're famously placid.
'THE most graphic images of the events surrounding the G8 summit ten years ago show angry rioters clashing with baton-wielding police officers on the streets of the Capital. But just as dramatic are the pictures of a quarter of a million people filling the city centre as they march through Edinburgh in bright sunshine, calling on the world leaders to “Make Poverty History”.
https://tinyurl.com/ybkt7gnd
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/957046703047299072
I was up early to go to New Covent Garden Market. Interesting to see the wholesale business behind the plants and flowers we see in our shops. So many of them come from Holland or via it from Africa and others. What will happen to this trade post-Brexit without a sensible resolution? Multiply this 000’s of times for any business you care to mention. This is what the government needs to concentrate on. Not all this granstanding, ego stroking and cat fighting.
Thanks for the header @DavidHerdson. Your comment about Mrs May not having left psychologically the role of Home Secretary is very acute.
The case for letting Boris have a go now is that he would have the opportunity to make that wholesale change. And if he proves to be not up to the job, then one of those given a leg up can take over before 2022.
The case against is that Boris might not be the man to be given Brexit as his first massive challenge in Government.....
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/one-well-aimed-speech-could-topple-mrs-may-dbjqgd00m
Boris would be the perfect man to be given Brexit in a "Nixon goes to China" kind of way. He's the public's face of Brexit and whatever deal he agrees (and the Civil Service will ensure a deal gets agreed) will be more acceptable as a result.
Our problem isn't in starting great new businesses. Its in developing and retaining them:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-tech-start-ups-lead-europe-as-funding-rises-to-3bn-in-record-year-8zfbgkwmw
https://www.ft.com/content/cb56d86c-88d6-11e7-afd2-74b8ecd34d3b
I remember hearing similar things about May in 2015 and 2016, due to her perceived hard line on immigration and the police. She was a "new Thatcher". How we laugh, now.
I think Gove is capable of learning, growth and public rehabilitation. Boris, not so much.