politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: How favourable are Brits tow
Comments
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Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. P, those ardent Remain supporters are the ones who keep banging on about the Empire.
It's Cathy Newmanesque.
"I want the UK to leave the EU."
"So you're saying we should conquer Africa?"
People get confused with timescales. My kids were shocked when I told them I was in a punk band. I think they thought we spent our youth dancing minuets or gavottes. The Empire was dead before I was even born, and I'm rapidly approaching 60.0 -
She is more than likely to win a no confidence vote and it will have little effect on her future as she will not be in post for long after Brexit in 2019IanB2 said:
On balance I agree. A lot of the MPs would want her to see Brexit through, and they will know how damaging a leadership election would be right now. There will also be a fair few of them fearing getting lumbered with Boris or RM. However these are reasons not to send in letters; once we reach the point where a vote is publicly declared, half the damage is done, and May's premiership cannot take much more damage. A narrow result in a confidence vote isn't a sustainable position, and so they then might as well vote her out and take their chances,rottenborough said:
I can't see May winning a No Confidence vote. Not anymore. Maybe a couple of months ago or so. But not now.Big_G_NorthWales said:I do question how so many media commentators say that 48 letters will trigger a leadership contest.
48 letters will trigger a vote of no confidence in her that she is likely to win. That is not a leadership contest.
On Corbyn - if his health remains ok, and if (and it is a huge if) he arrives at no 10 the question should be as to how long he would last in post - he is entirely unsuited to the role and when the media spotlight puts him under daily attack, as they will, his inadequacy is likely to overwhelm him0 -
I agree we shouldn’t expect so much global influence.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.
In economics terms - slipping down a global league table is the wrong metaphor IMO. Prosperity is not zero sum, we gain from India becoming wealthy. In any case with a population over well over 1 billion it is entirely inevitable.
I see no evidence Brexit is causing increased focus on domestic issues - the govt is neglecting major issues because it has to focus on Brexit.
IMO, Britain will continue to have outsized international influence because he have a number of world class institutions/things: the BBC, the Premier League, our universities, pharma industry, financial hub/excellent legal system, a very efficient parliamentary system, native speakers of global language, dare I say it but aspects of the NHS etc.
As we become a more niche player - I think we need to play to these strengths.0 -
You do talk nonsense.TOPPING said:
Brexit will force us to try to make trade deals with Tonga, won't it. Not sure the denizens of Bourne gain a great deal thereby.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.0 -
Aussies now 112 for 40
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No reason to try them all on your cornflakes though....TOPPING said:
I have five types of gin in my freezer I'm spoilt for choice.Richard_Tyndall said:0 -
Someone might have already asked this. Why didn't they also ask Brits what they think of Britain?0
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But how to get that really testing bit of arithmetic across to the Remoaners? Perhaps if you could source a bus from somewhere, and I'll google for some signwriters...John_M said:Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, those ardent Remain supporters are the ones who keep banging on about the Empire.
It's Cathy Newmanesque.
"I want the UK to leave the EU."
"So you're saying we should conquer Africa?"
People get confused with timescales. My kids were shocked when I told them I was in a punk band. I think they thought we spent our youth dancing minuets or gavottes. The Empire was dead before I was even born, and I'm rapidly approaching 60.0 -
One ranking of 'Global Soft Power' has us at Number 2 - behind France & ahead of the US. Notably the only respondents who had 'marked us down' in the polling were Europeans, while other countries hadn't changed their views of Britain. As ever, Brexit's effect is being exaggerated by those who lost the argument.rkrkrk said:
I agree we shouldn’t expect so much global influence.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.
https://softpower30.com0 -
Remember that French elegence and sophistication which roger keeps telling us about:
' A discount on Nutella has led to violent scenes in a chain of French supermarkets, as shoppers jostled to grab a bargain on the sweet spread.
Intermarché supermarkets offered a 70% discount on Nutella, bringing the price down from €4.50 (£3.90) to €1.40.
But police were called when people began fighting and pushing one another.
"They are like animals. A woman had her hair pulled, an elderly lady took a box on her head, another had a bloody hand," one customer told French media.
A member of staff at one Intermarché shop in central France told the regional newspaper Le Progrès: "We were trying to get in between the customers but they were pushing us."
All of their stock was snapped up within 15 minutes and one customer was given a black eye, the report adds. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-428260280 -
Au contraire, ordinarily Mr Topping is very astute, and witty with it. I think he may have eaten some of Alastair's cornflakes by mistake.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do talk nonsense.TOPPING said:
Brexit will force us to try to make trade deals with Tonga, won't it. Not sure the denizens of Bourne gain a great deal thereby.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.0 -
Mr Dunt, look away:
The European Union is willing to be flexible on the duration and other terms of a Brexit transition period, EU diplomats said as Britain prepares to detail its hopes for what happens after it leaves the bloc in March 2019.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/eu-signals-some-flexibility-on-brexit-transition/0 -
Yes in soft power we will be up there for a long time.CarlottaVance said:
One ranking of 'Global Soft Power' has us at Number 2 - behind France & ahead of the US. Notably the only respondents who had 'marked us down' in the polling were Europeans, while other countries hadn't changed their views of Britain. As ever, Brexit's effect is being exaggerated by those who lost the argument.rkrkrk said:
I agree we shouldn’t expect so much global influence.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.
https://softpower30.com
In hard power - it doesn’t feel realistic to stay where we are.
Will I shed tears when we lose our Security Council seat?
not especially.
Edit - to avoid starting an unnecessary argument I should add - I think Brexit will not affect losing the security council seat one way or the other. It just feels unrealistic to expect countries like India to remain out with two European countries as permanent members.0 -
As Paul Keating might have said, "From the Roman spa town of Bath down to Lizard point there are Polynesians everywhere..."HYUFD said:No surprise that New Zealand tops the poll, it is probably closer culturally to the UK than any other country in the world.
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porridgeJohn_M said:
Au contraire, ordinarily Mr Topping is very astute, and witty with it. I think he may have eaten some of Alastair's cornflakes by mistake.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do talk nonsense.TOPPING said:
Brexit will force us to try to make trade deals with Tonga, won't it. Not sure the denizens of Bourne gain a great deal thereby.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.0 -
His comment on Tonga was nonsense - maybe gin was used on his cornflakes thenJohn_M said:
Au contraire, ordinarily Mr Topping is very astute, and witty with it. I think he may have eaten some of Alastair's cornflakes by mistake.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do talk nonsense.TOPPING said:
Brexit will force us to try to make trade deals with Tonga, won't it. Not sure the denizens of Bourne gain a great deal thereby.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.0 -
Are you saying we don't want to sign a trade deal with Tonga???Big_G_NorthWales said:
His comment on Tonga was nonsense - maybe gin was used on his cornflakes thenJohn_M said:
Au contraire, ordinarily Mr Topping is very astute, and witty with it. I think he may have eaten some of Alastair's cornflakes by mistake.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do talk nonsense.TOPPING said:
Brexit will force us to try to make trade deals with Tonga, won't it. Not sure the denizens of Bourne gain a great deal thereby.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.0 -
You know what I like about you Topping? Every time I throw an insult at you, you have a suitable amusing retort. It is a skill I very much envy.TOPPING said:
I have five types of gin in my freezer I'm spoilt for choice.Richard_Tyndall said:0 -
US, India, China, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and the middle east countries would be a good start and then othersTOPPING said:
Are you saying we don't want to sign a trade deal with Tonga???Big_G_NorthWales said:
His comment on Tonga was nonsense - maybe gin was used on his cornflakes thenJohn_M said:
Au contraire, ordinarily Mr Topping is very astute, and witty with it. I think he may have eaten some of Alastair's cornflakes by mistake.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do talk nonsense.TOPPING said:
Brexit will force us to try to make trade deals with Tonga, won't it. Not sure the denizens of Bourne gain a great deal thereby.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.0 -
Aussies now 136 for 50
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I wonder what the current exchange rate is of pounds versus the Tongan paʻanga.TOPPING said:
Are you saying we don't want to sign a trade deal with Tonga???Big_G_NorthWales said:
His comment on Tonga was nonsense - maybe gin was used on his cornflakes thenJohn_M said:
Au contraire, ordinarily Mr Topping is very astute, and witty with it. I think he may have eaten some of Alastair's cornflakes by mistake.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do talk nonsense.TOPPING said:
Brexit will force us to try to make trade deals with Tonga, won't it. Not sure the denizens of Bourne gain a great deal thereby.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.0 -
Maybe he shorted sterling after Christmas.John_M said:
Au contraire, ordinarily Mr Topping is very astute, and witty with it. I think he may have eaten some of Alastair's cornflakes by mistake.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do talk nonsense.TOPPING said:
Brexit will force us to try to make trade deals with Tonga, won't it. Not sure the denizens of Bourne gain a great deal thereby.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.
I rather suspect he did the same to the FTSE after the Referendum - it would explain why mentioning how prole pension pots have increased seems to touch Toppo's sore spot.0 -
Oh no, the dreaded 60 runs required from 24 overs!Big_G_NorthWales said:Aussies now 136 for 5
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I though empire was important for the Brexitiers? Doesn’t the UK’s ownership of the mighty Pitcairn Islands enable us to potentially join the Trans Pacific trading bloc?0
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So not the EU then?Big_G_NorthWales said:
US, India, China, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and the middle east countries would be a good start and then othersTOPPING said:
Are you saying we don't want to sign a trade deal with Tonga???Big_G_NorthWales said:
His comment on Tonga was nonsense - maybe gin was used on his cornflakes thenJohn_M said:
Au contraire, ordinarily Mr Topping is very astute, and witty with it. I think he may have eaten some of Alastair's cornflakes by mistake.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do talk nonsense.TOPPING said:
Brexit will force us to try to make trade deals with Tonga, won't it. Not sure the denizens of Bourne gain a great deal thereby.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.
Absolutely typical of Brexiters. Will cut off their nose to spite their face. But still, what does half our exports matter.
(And yes, I know you voted Remain dear god help us.)0 -
I did an experiment a couple weeks ago. I roasted and ground a bag of hazelnuts and stirred in a bar of plain chocolate. Nutella for grownups and you don't have to riot to get it. Cost to make not far off the discount price eitheranother_richard said:Remember that French elegence and sophistication which roger keeps telling us about:
' A discount on Nutella has led to violent scenes in a chain of French supermarkets, as shoppers jostled to grab a bargain on the sweet spread.
Intermarché supermarkets offered a 70% discount on Nutella, bringing the price down from €4.50 (£3.90) to €1.40.
But police were called when people began fighting and pushing one another.
"They are like animals. A woman had her hair pulled, an elderly lady took a box on her head, another had a bloody hand," one customer told French media.
A member of staff at one Intermarché shop in central France told the regional newspaper Le Progrès: "We were trying to get in between the customers but they were pushing us."
All of their stock was snapped up within 15 minutes and one customer was given a black eye, the report adds. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-428260280 -
Tonga, New Zealand and the UK could found the Polynesian Union.TOPPING said:
Are you saying we don't want to sign a trade deal with Tonga???Big_G_NorthWales said:
His comment on Tonga was nonsense - maybe gin was used on his cornflakes thenJohn_M said:
Au contraire, ordinarily Mr Topping is very astute, and witty with it. I think he may have eaten some of Alastair's cornflakes by mistake.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do talk nonsense.TOPPING said:
Brexit will force us to try to make trade deals with Tonga, won't it. Not sure the denizens of Bourne gain a great deal thereby.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.0 -
I find your lack of faith in Mrs May's political acumen disturbing. *Mad Laugh*TOPPING said:
So not the EU then?Big_G_NorthWales said:
US, India, China, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and the middle east countries would be a good start and then othersTOPPING said:
Are you saying we don't want to sign a trade deal with Tonga???Big_G_NorthWales said:
His comment on Tonga was nonsense - maybe gin was used on his cornflakes thenJohn_M said:
Au contraire, ordinarily Mr Topping is very astute, and witty with it. I think he may have eaten some of Alastair's cornflakes by mistake.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do talk nonsense.TOPPING said:
Brexit will force us to try to make trade deals with Tonga, won't it. Not sure the denizens of Bourne gain a great deal thereby.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.
Absolutely typical of Brexiters. Will cut off their nose to spite their face. But still, what does half our exports matter.
(And yes, I know you voted Remain dear god help us.)0 -
Why do you want the good Lord to help youTOPPING said:
So not the EU then?Big_G_NorthWales said:
US, India, China, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and the middle east countries would be a good start and then othersTOPPING said:
Are you saying we don't want to sign a trade deal with Tonga???Big_G_NorthWales said:
His comment on Tonga was nonsense - maybe gin was used on his cornflakes thenJohn_M said:
Au contraire, ordinarily Mr Topping is very astute, and witty with it. I think he may have eaten some of Alastair's cornflakes by mistake.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do talk nonsense.TOPPING said:
Brexit will force us to try to make trade deals with Tonga, won't it. Not sure the denizens of Bourne gain a great deal thereby.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.
Absolutely typical of Brexiters. Will cut off their nose to spite their face. But still, what does half our exports matter.
(And yes, I know you voted Remain dear god help us.)
You must feel you have lost your case to call on divine intervention0 -
Throw in some words like 'vegan', 'handpicked', 'small-batch' or 'artisan', then increase the price by 1000% and hipsters will love it.FF43 said:
I did an experiment a couple weeks ago. I roasted and ground a bag of hazelnuts and stirred in a bar of plain chocolate. Nutella for grownups and you don't have to riot to get it. Cost to make not far off the discount price eitheranother_richard said:Remember that French elegence and sophistication which roger keeps telling us about:
' A discount on Nutella has led to violent scenes in a chain of French supermarkets, as shoppers jostled to grab a bargain on the sweet spread.
Intermarché supermarkets offered a 70% discount on Nutella, bringing the price down from €4.50 (£3.90) to €1.40.
But police were called when people began fighting and pushing one another.
"They are like animals. A woman had her hair pulled, an elderly lady took a box on her head, another had a bloody hand," one customer told French media.
A member of staff at one Intermarché shop in central France told the regional newspaper Le Progrès: "We were trying to get in between the customers but they were pushing us."
All of their stock was snapped up within 15 minutes and one customer was given a black eye, the report adds. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-428260280 -
Just listening to the podcast. X, Y or Zee?! Zed, Mr. Pedley, Zed!0
-
It is important not to confuse why people voted for Brexit with why right wing Tory Brexiteers advocated it. Of course, neither will actually get what they want.HYUFD said:
If you think the Brexit vote was a vote to get a bigger audience for the UK PM in Davos you need to go back to the drawing board, as recent elections have showed it is not as if other western countries do not have rising anti immigration and anti capitalism and anti globalisation movements tooSouthamObserver said:Deleted - double post
0 -
Imagine what we will be like when the Russians cut off the electricity supply though.another_richard said:Remember that French elegence and sophistication which roger keeps telling us about:
' A discount on Nutella has led to violent scenes in a chain of French supermarkets, as shoppers jostled to grab a bargain on the sweet spread.
Intermarché supermarkets offered a 70% discount on Nutella, bringing the price down from €4.50 (£3.90) to €1.40.
But police were called when people began fighting and pushing one another.
"They are like animals. A woman had her hair pulled, an elderly lady took a box on her head, another had a bloody hand," one customer told French media.
A member of staff at one Intermarché shop in central France told the regional newspaper Le Progrès: "We were trying to get in between the customers but they were pushing us."
All of their stock was snapped up within 15 minutes and one customer was given a black eye, the report adds. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-428260280 -
-
I am always interested in the portfolio performance of the No.9 bus driver's pension fund and how thrilled he or she might be when sterling moves one way or the other.another_richard said:
Maybe he shorted sterling after Christmas.John_M said:
Au contraire, ordinarily Mr Topping is very astute, and witty with it. I think he may have eaten some of Alastair's cornflakes by mistake.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do talk nonsense.TOPPING said:
Brexit will force us to try to make trade deals with Tonga, won't it. Not sure the denizens of Bourne gain a great deal thereby.John_M said:
We're what, 1% of the global population? About 3.4% of global GDP? I'm not sure what people expect us to achieve on the world stage. We're important, but in no way a colossus - those days are long gone.rkrkrk said:
I feel regret far more than anger at Brexit. Some anger towards certain dishonest individuals. But anger towards the public for their decision? That way lies near perpetual unhappiness as the public are always going to make decisions I don’t like at some point...TOPPING said:
Any right thinking patriotic Brit should be furious at the Brexiters for diminishing us. I certainly am.Scott_P said:
Brexiters think it is a huge victory. They are cowards and fools.
C***s.
I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
We'll be slipping down the economic league tables this century - India is likely to overtake both France and the UK this year. However, this doesn't mean we can't prosper in relative terms; it's not as if our recent overseas adventures have generated any political capital.
If Brexit forces us to spend a bit more time sorting out domestic issues, rather than grandstanding in some post-Imperial spasm, it will be for the good.
I rather suspect he did the same to the FTSE after the Referendum - it would explain why mentioning how prole pension pots have increased seems to touch Toppo's sore spot.0 -
Multilateralism should suit the UK as a country with some influence but no power. It gives us leverage. Also if you have an open economy you might want other countries to reciprocate. The effectiveness is in committees, not gunboats. By passing up on that engagement we will have less influence and will get less of what we want. It's not grandstanding.
Having said that I suspect the poor attendance at Mrs May's speech might be more due to the utter tedium of the Maybot, rather than any perceptions of British weakness. I mean, who would willingly subject themselves to that torture?0 -
Britain just becomes geopolitically less important post Brexit.
Less important to France and Germany and other European countries as a weight inside the EU.
Less important to the US for the same reason - because less able to influence inside the US’s main rival for trade and financial rule setting.
Less important to China - no longer a voice inside their main export market.
And, to all nations, we are no longer a reliable and stable route into a wealthy market of 500 million people.
And frankly, with Brexit the only show in town, we’re less able to manage an active foreign (and seemingly domestic) policy.
Britain’s global power has of course been in decline for a 100 years. We gave up pretending to be a superpower after Suez, and the 60s and 70s were all about retrenchment.
Thatcher, then Blair, arrested and reversed our decline. We were powerful players in the end of the Cold War, in the establishment of the single market, in the end of apartheid, and in the Falklands, Sierra Leone, and Yugoslavia.
Then, downhill.
Iraq destroyed our credibility. The global financial crisis removed our means. But Brexit is the final nail in the coffin. It’s a retreat not just from a global role, but from a regional one.
I will continue to be surprised that the Brexiters - who tend to be Conservatives - and therefore traditionally proud and protective of Britain’s global power - are so sanguine about its rapid decline.
But that’s cognitive dissonance for you, I guess.0 -
What's with this fixation of yours about Empire?Scott_P said:
The flipside of that argument is the Brexiteers yearning for the return of Empire.rkrkrk said:I’d also observe - this stuff about loss of influence and international standing - I think we in Remain overestimated how effective that argument would be. It just doesn’t feel tangible to people.
In their minds we can increase our Global influence by retreating to the past.
Let is go. Its over. It's not coming back.
Jeez, you'll be yearning for slavery next....0 -
I AM NOT SANGUINE!!Gardenwalker said:Britain just becomes geopolitically less important post Brexit.
Less important to France and Germany and other European countries as a weight inside the EU.
Less important to the US for the same reason - because less able to influence inside the US’s main rival for trade and financial rule setting.
Less important to China - no longer a voice inside their main export market.
And, to all nations, we are no longer a reliable and stable route into a wealthy market of 500 million people.
And frankly, with Brexit the only show in town, we’re less able to manage an active foreign (and seemingly domestic) policy.
Britain’s global power has of course been in decline for a 100 years. We gave up pretending to be a superpower after Suez, and the 60s and 70s were all about retrenchment.
Thatcher, then Blair, arrested and reversed our decline. We were powerful players in the end of the Cold War, in the establishment of the single market, in the end of apartheid, and in the Falklands, Sierra Leone, and Yugoslavia.
Then, downhill.
Iraq destroyed our credibility. The global financial crisis removed our means. But Brexit is the final nail in the coffin. It’s a retreat not just from a global role, but from a regional one.
I will continue to be surprised that the Brexiters - who tend to be Conservatives - and therefore traditionally proud and protective of Britain’s global power - are so sanguine about its rapid decline.
But that’s cognitive dissonance for you, I guess.
0 -
Mr. Richard, don't forget 'traditional'.0
-
I highly doubt that sort of legal nicety is going to stop the Starlight Jezpress. He'll just do it via an act of parliament (which will by then be 'sovereign', lol).Big_G_NorthWales said:
Some talk of Grayling bringing the East Coast back in house pending a new franchise in 2020. Corbyn succeeding in public ownership of train franchises may well be obstructed by the length of the franchiserkrkrk said:
I think we can safely say we’ve seen how Corbyn responds under daily media attack.Big_G_NorthWales said:I do question how so many media commentators say that 48 letters will trigger a leadership contest.
48 letters will trigger a vote of no confidence in her that she is likely to win. That is not a leadership contest.
On Corbyn - if his health remains ok, and if (and it is a huge if) he arrives at no 10 the question should be as to how long he would last in post - he is entirely unsuited to the role and when the media spotlight puts him under daily attack, as they will, his inadequacy is likely to overwhelm him
If he reaches #10 I suspect he would only serve one term. That perception is likely to be destabilising IMO - from the moment he is in the door people would be jostling to be in line to replace him.
Super speculative but - I suspect he would try to line up some quick wins on tuition fees, higher taxation on the wealthy, more money for the NHS, a few apologies for colonial atrocities and then he’d be tempted to stand down if he could guarantee a leftie on the ballot. I’m unconvinced he could get the utility nationalisations through Parliament even with a majority - but I think we’d see train franchises coming back to public ownership.
The end justifies the means as long as something justifies the ends as Trotsky said.0 -
Despite Brexit, or because it hasn’t happened yet?tlg86 said:0 -
Q4 GDP was 0.5%, up 1.8% year on year.0
-
So does that mean that British lives and money no longer need to be wasted on foreign wars ?Gardenwalker said:Britain just becomes geopolitically less important post Brexit.
Less important to France and Germany and other European countries as a weight inside the EU.
Less important to the US for the same reason - because less able to influence inside the US’s main rival for trade and financial rule setting.
Less important to China - no longer a voice inside their main export market.
And, to all nations, we are no longer a reliable and stable route into a wealthy market of 500 million people.
And frankly, with Brexit the only show in town, we’re less able to manage an active foreign (and seemingly domestic) policy.
Britain’s global power has of course been in decline for a 100 years. We gave up pretending to be a superpower after Suez, and the 60s and 70s were all about retrenchment.
Thatcher, then Blair, arrested and reversed our decline. We were powerful players in the end of the Cold War, in the establishment of the single market, in the end of apartheid, and in the Falklands, Sierra Leone, and Yugoslavia.
Then, downhill.
Iraq destroyed our credibility. The global financial crisis removed our means. But Brexit is the final nail in the coffin. It’s a retreat not just from a global role, but from a regional one.
I will continue to be surprised that the Brexiters - who tend to be Conservatives - and therefore traditionally proud and protective of Britain’s global power - are so sanguine about its rapid decline.
But that’s cognitive dissonance for you, I guess.
And I guess that means we no longer need to be an 'Aid Superpower' and so can save ourselves another ten billion a year.0 -
If ever we needed a hat-trick!Sandpit said:
Oh no, the dreaded 60 runs required from 24 overs!Big_G_NorthWales said:Aussies now 136 for 5
0 -
May could do something on NHS to take back the initiative says Collins. Hypothecate for social care costs:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/may-should-shout-about-this-nhs-revolution-kx0snxd3p0 -
For those confused between what they actually see and the reports of a construction recession:
' Construction contracted for the third quarter in a row, although annual growth between 2016 and 2017 was very strong at 5.1%, due to a strong start to 2017. '
0 -
What chance the GDP figures make the front page of tonight’s Standard - or will it be a cartoon of May and Trump instead?MarqueeMark said:0 -
Three consecutive quarters of decline in construction though.Sean_F said:Q4 GDP was 0.5%, up 1.8% year on year.
0 -
Brexit, I believe, is at heart an exercise in rhetoric. Where the rhetoric is important to people and also has real consequences. Most Leavers embrace sovereignty as an idea. They have no interest in making actual choices with implications, which is what sovereignty means. That's why I think most Leavers will accept a Brexit with Britain as a "vassal state" as Rees-Mogg puts it with some accuracy. The deals can be as crap as you like but as long as they are "British" deals that you can put a union flag on, they will accept it.Gardenwalker said:Britain just becomes geopolitically less important post Brexit.
Less important to France and Germany and other European countries as a weight inside the EU.
Less important to the US for the same reason - because less able to influence inside the US’s main rival for trade and financial rule setting.
Less important to China - no longer a voice inside their main export market.
And, to all nations, we are no longer a reliable and stable route into a wealthy market of 500 million people.
And frankly, with Brexit the only show in town, we’re less able to manage an active foreign (and seemingly domestic) policy.
Britain’s global power has of course been in decline for a 100 years. We gave up pretending to be a superpower after Suez, and the 60s and 70s were all about retrenchment.
Thatcher, then Blair, arrested and reversed our decline. We were powerful players in the end of the Cold War, in the establishment of the single market, in the end of apartheid, and in the Falklands, Sierra Leone, and Yugoslavia.
Then, downhill.
Iraq destroyed our credibility. The global financial crisis removed our means. But Brexit is the final nail in the coffin. It’s a retreat not just from a global role, but from a regional one.
I will continue to be surprised that the Brexiters - who tend to be Conservatives - and therefore traditionally proud and protective of Britain’s global power - are so sanguine about its rapid decline.
But that’s cognitive dissonance for you, I guess.0 -
-
Would the construction figures be better if we joined the Euro?williamglenn said:
Three consecutive quarters of decline in construction though.Sean_F said:Q4 GDP was 0.5%, up 1.8% year on year.
0 -
I'm looking forward to the Treasury analysis as to how wrong their pre-Referendum predictions were.Sean_F said:Q4 GDP was 0.5%, up 1.8% year on year.
Given Hammond's attitude it seems he would be happier if the real world had conformed to Treasury predictions.0 -
So zero downsides? Might encourage the civil service to actually engage with brexit..DecrepitJohnL said:
Gove wants to reform the entire civil service. Installing him in Number 11 would give him the freedom to blow up Whitehall in the middle of Brexit negotiations.williamglenn said:
Maybe Gove as CoE wouldn't be such a bad idea. He could implement some of the 'bold' ideas the Treasury has sitting on the shelf and he might also go native on the single market.MarqueeMark said:
I am thinking Hammond's departure is going to be the price for May staying as PM until the end of March 2019. The pair of them together do seem to be achieving a toxic critical mass.....GideonWise said:Hammond playing silly buggers again in Davos.
He needs to spend more time in his garden and with his family. I can't understand how he's still in the post but if Theresa doesn't remove him sharpish then it is her who is going to be the one tending to tulips.
She either gets rid of one - or both go. Not too difficult a choice, is it Theresa? Then move Hunt to CoE? I doubt he could refuse that move from Health....0 -
I have to say that the picture in today's Metro - Theresa barely able to contain her glee when shaking hands with a sullen Trump - was toe curling. The silly woman really seems to think she's achieved something. For how much longer will we have to put up with this dud? Her premiership is like a grey cloud over Britain that never seems to clear. Come on Boris! Now's the time to strike. Put us out of our misery and give the nation some vim again.0
-
But up 5.1% on the year.williamglenn said:
Three consecutive quarters of decline in construction though.Sean_F said:Q4 GDP was 0.5%, up 1.8% year on year.
0 -
It's Brexit symbolique. Forms of words, light pink lines and dark blue passports. Unless the Brexit loons manage to take over. Then it's a long fall off the cliff edge.TOPPING said:
0 -
Yep. Brexit means embracing a necessary isolationism.another_richard said:
So does that mean that British lives and money no longer need to be wasted on foreign wars ?Gardenwalker said:Britain just becomes geopolitically less important post Brexit.
Less important to France and Germany and other European countries as a weight inside the EU.
Less important to the US for the same reason - because less able to influence inside the US’s main rival for trade and financial rule setting.
Less important to China - no longer a voice inside their main export market.
And, to all nations, we are no longer a reliable and stable route into a wealthy market of 500 million people.
And frankly, with Brexit the only show in town, we’re less able to manage an active foreign (and seemingly domestic) policy.
Britain’s global power has of course been in decline for a 100 years. We gave up pretending to be a superpower after Suez, and the 60s and 70s were all about retrenchment.
Thatcher, then Blair, arrested and reversed our decline. We were powerful players in the end of the Cold War, in the establishment of the single market, in the end of apartheid, and in the Falklands, Sierra Leone, and Yugoslavia.
Then, downhill.
Iraq destroyed our credibility. The global financial crisis removed our means. But Brexit is the final nail in the coffin. It’s a retreat not just from a global role, but from a regional one.
I will continue to be surprised that the Brexiters - who tend to be Conservatives - and therefore traditionally proud and protective of Britain’s global power - are so sanguine about its rapid decline.
But that’s cognitive dissonance for you, I guess.
And I guess that means we no longer need to be an 'Aid Superpower' and so can save ourselves another ten billion a year.
Many on this board welcome that.
Not me though. I think Britain has broadly been a force for good.
Leaving the stage means leaving it for others to lead, and means a willingness to be led by other nations.0 -
Solid....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42831655?ocid=socialflow_twitter
you can hear the gloom...
UK growth saw a slightly better-than-expected 0.5% rise for the last three months of 2017, official figures say.
Economists had expected a 0.4% expansion in the three months to December.
However, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the annual picture remained "slower and more uneven".
In 2017 as a whole, growth was 1.8% compared with 1.9% in 2016, the slowest since 2012, the ONS said.0 -
Happy GDP Day all.
0.5% growth seems encouraging. Despite Brexit?
0 -
' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.Sandpit said:
What chance the GDP figures make the front page of tonight’s Standard - or will it be a cartoon of May and Trump instead?MarqueeMark said:
It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.
The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.
In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more.
...
House price growth would be hit by at least ten per cent and as much as 18 per cent, making homeowners poorer. There wouldn’t be good news for young people trying to get on the housing ladder, though, because mortgages would be harder to get and more expensive. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-brexit-would-put-our-economy-in/0 -
Names?Gardenwalker said:
Many on this board welcome that.another_richard said:
So does that mean that British lives and money no longer need to be wasted on foreign wars ?Gardenwalker said:Britain just becomes geopolitically less important post Brexit.
Less important to France and Germany and other European countries as a weight inside the EU.
Less important to the US for the same reason - because less able to influence inside the US’s main rival for trade and financial rule setting.
Less important to China - no longer a voice inside their main export market.
And, to all nations, we are no longer a reliable and stable route into a wealthy market of 500 million people.
And frankly, with Brexit the only show in town, we’re less able to manage an active foreign (and seemingly domestic) policy.
Britain’s global power has of course been in decline for a 100 years. We gave up pretending to be a superpower after Suez, and the 60s and 70s were all about retrenchment.
Thatcher, then Blair, arrested and reversed our decline. We were powerful players in the end of the Cold War, in the establishment of the single market, in the end of apartheid, and in the Falklands, Sierra Leone, and Yugoslavia.
Then, downhill.
Iraq destroyed our credibility. The global financial crisis removed our means. But Brexit is the final nail in the coffin. It’s a retreat not just from a global role, but from a regional one.
I will continue to be surprised that the Brexiters - who tend to be Conservatives - and therefore traditionally proud and protective of Britain’s global power - are so sanguine about its rapid decline.
But that’s cognitive dissonance for you, I guess.
And I guess that means we no longer need to be an 'Aid Superpower' and so can save ourselves another ten billion a year.
You really shouldn't believe what Remainers write about Brexiters......0 -
Mr. Walker, leaving the stage? Leaving a situation whereby QMV can impose laws upon us, QMV in which the eurozone has an outright majority and which only exists because a treaty was signed contrary to the manifestos of all three major parties to hold a referendum.
Not being in the EU does not mean being isolationist. The EU is not some paragon of international diplomatic wonderfulness. It's a needless, acquisitive, foolish institution that has grown beyond reason. By necessity and nature it accrues power from democratic nation-states to the centre, which is bureaucratic, deliberately complex so as to be opaque rather than transparent, and utterly unaccountable.
Just look how it ignores votes that don't go its way, or gets the question asked repeatedly until the 'right' answer is given.
Leaving the EU is difficult, largely due to the unasked for and undesired depth of integration, but prising ourselves free of the bureaucratic octopus is necessary.0 -
I think out of all the Remain advocates here, @FF43 is most likely correct. The deleterious effects of Brexit will manifest in the medium term. You can defer investment decisions and strategic reviews for 2-3 years, but not forever. Once HMG has negotiated the final deal, businesses will respond to that.GIN1138 said:Happy GDP Day all.
0.5% growth seems encouraging. Despite Brexit?
Once the market had recovered from the shock of the proles disobeying their betters, it was business as usual, albeit with a devalued pound.
I think only the most Panglossian Brexiteers hold to the idea of there being no downsides to Brexit. Whether there are compensatory upsides is still, I suggest, up in the air.0 -
Fake news. Never mind Brexit -- that Bloomberg graph says that after the global meltdown, Britain returned to growth under Labour. Surely that can't be right???Scott_P said:0 -
Being part of the single market as European economies surge is very good news for us.GIN1138 said:Happy GDP Day all.
0.5% growth seems encouraging. Despite Brexit?
0 -
Isn’t it amazing how you can get growth by borrowing £160bn a year and printing £250bn more?DecrepitJohnL said:
Fake news. Never mind Brexit -- that Bloomberg graph says that after the global meltdown, Britain returned to growth under Labour. Surely that can't be right???Scott_P said:0 -
@another_richard for a start.CarlottaVance said:
Names?Gardenwalker said:
Many on this board welcome that.another_richard said:
So does that mean that British lives and money no longer need to be wasted on foreign wars ?Gardenwalker said:Britain just becomes geopolitically less important post Brexit.
Less important to France and Germany and other European countries as a weight inside the EU.
Less important to the US for the same reason - because less able to influence inside the US’s main rival for trade and financial rule setting.
Less important to China - no longer a voice inside their main export market.
And, to all nations, we are no longer a reliable and stable route into a wealthy market of 500 million people.
And frankly, with Brexit the only show in town, we’re less able to manage an active foreign (and seemingly domestic) policy.
Britain’s global power has of course been in decline for a 100 years. We gave up pretending to be a superpower after Suez, and the 60s and 70s were all about retrenchment.
Thatcher, then Blair, arrested and reversed our decline. We were powerful players in the end of the Cold War, in the establishment of the single market, in the end of apartheid, and in the Falklands, Sierra Leone, and Yugoslavia.
Then, downhill.
Iraq destroyed our credibility. The global financial crisis removed our means. But Brexit is the final nail in the coffin. It’s a retreat not just from a global role, but from a regional one.
I will continue to be surprised that the Brexiters - who tend to be Conservatives - and therefore traditionally proud and protective of Britain’s global power - are so sanguine about its rapid decline.
But that’s cognitive dissonance for you, I guess.
And I guess that means we no longer need to be an 'Aid Superpower' and so can save ourselves another ten billion a year.
You really shouldn't believe what Remainers write about Brexiters......0 -
Keynes might have had a point and the austerity hawks learned nothing from the 1930s?Sandpit said:
Isn’t it amazing how you can get growth by borrowing £160bn a year and printing £250bn more?DecrepitJohnL said:
Fake news. Never mind Brexit -- that Bloomberg graph says that after the global meltdown, Britain returned to growth under Labour. Surely that can't be right???Scott_P said:0 -
I’m just talking about the geopolitics.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Walker, leaving the stage? Leaving a situation whereby QMV can impose laws upon us, QMV in which the eurozone has an outright majority and which only exists because a treaty was signed contrary to the manifestos of all three major parties to hold a referendum.
Not being in the EU does not mean being isolationist. The EU is not some paragon of international diplomatic wonderfulness. It's a needless, acquisitive, foolish institution that has grown beyond reason. By necessity and nature it accrues power from democratic nation-states to the centre, which is bureaucratic, deliberately complex so as to be opaque rather than transparent, and utterly unaccountable.
Just look how it ignores votes that don't go its way, or gets the question asked repeatedly until the 'right' answer is given.
Leaving the EU is difficult, largely due to the unasked for and undesired depth of integration, but prising ourselves free of the bureaucratic octopus is necessary.
You’re talking about the nature of the EU beast.
I would respect Brexiters more if they said, look - there’s an economic cost, and we have to accept a loss in global status and influence - but it’s worth it to get control of immigration and freedom from the ECJ.
But mostly they pretend we can have it all.
It is magical thinking.0 -
Just laughable.another_richard said:
' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.Sandpit said:
What chance the GDP figures make the front page of tonight’s Standard - or will it be a cartoon of May and Trump instead?MarqueeMark said:
It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.
The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.
In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more.
...
House price growth would be hit by at least ten per cent and as much as 18 per cent, making homeowners poorer. There wouldn’t be good news for young people trying to get on the housing ladder, though, because mortgages would be harder to get and more expensive. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-brexit-would-put-our-economy-in/
No wonder they were beaten by a bus.0 -
Yes we did. Brown stuff the economy with "funny money" in the run up to the 2010 general election which gave the impression of "growth".DecrepitJohnL said:
Fake news. Never mind Brexit -- that Bloomberg graph says that after the global meltdown, Britain returned to growth under Labour. Surely that can't be right???Scott_P said:0 -
You mean, like this?Gardenwalker said:
I’m just talking about the geopolitics.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Walker, leaving the stage? Leaving a situation whereby QMV can impose laws upon us, QMV in which the eurozone has an outright majority and which only exists because a treaty was signed contrary to the manifestos of all three major parties to hold a referendum.
Not being in the EU does not mean being isolationist. The EU is not some paragon of international diplomatic wonderfulness. It's a needless, acquisitive, foolish institution that has grown beyond reason. By necessity and nature it accrues power from democratic nation-states to the centre, which is bureaucratic, deliberately complex so as to be opaque rather than transparent, and utterly unaccountable.
Just look how it ignores votes that don't go its way, or gets the question asked repeatedly until the 'right' answer is given.
Leaving the EU is difficult, largely due to the unasked for and undesired depth of integration, but prising ourselves free of the bureaucratic octopus is necessary.
You’re talking about the nature of the EU beast.
I would respect Brexiters more if they said, look - there’s an economic cost, and we have to accept a loss in global status and influence - but it’s worth it to get control of immigration and freedom from the ECJ.
But mostly they pretend we can have it all.
It is magical thinking.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/16/mortimer-with-a-tip-for-the-more-adventurous-gamblers/
'Remain might struggle to win over voters if they are overplay economics not only because people don’t believe the economic arguments and figures, but also because some of us might consider from experience that the gains of improved sovereignty or a reduction in the immigration figures could be more personally significant.'
I look forward to your future respect 0 -
The deal just needs a blue cover.FF43 said:
Brexit, I believe, is at heart an exercise in rhetoric. Where the rhetoric is important to people and also has real consequences. Most Leavers embrace sovereignty as an idea. They have no interest in making actual choices with implications, which is what sovereignty means. That's why I think most Leavers will accept a Brexit with Britain as a "vassal state" as Rees-Mogg puts it with some accuracy. The deals can be as crap as you like but as long as they are "British" deals that you can put a union flag on, they will accept it.Gardenwalker said:Britain just becomes geopolitically less important post Brexit.
Less important to France and Germany and other European countries as a weight inside the EU.
Less important to the US for the same reason - because less able to influence inside the US’s main rival for trade and financial rule setting.
Less important to China - no longer a voice inside their main export market.
And, to all nations, we are no longer a reliable and stable route into a wealthy market of 500 million people.
And frankly, with Brexit the only show in town, we’re less able to manage an active foreign (and seemingly domestic) policy.
Britain’s global power has of course been in decline for a 100 years. We gave up pretending to be a superpower after Suez, and the 60s and 70s were all about retrenchment.
Thatcher, then Blair, arrested and reversed our decline. We were powerful players in the end of the Cold War, in the establishment of the single market, in the end of apartheid, and in the Falklands, Sierra Leone, and Yugoslavia.
Then, downhill.
Iraq destroyed our credibility. The global financial crisis removed our means. But Brexit is the final nail in the coffin. It’s a retreat not just from a global role, but from a regional one.
I will continue to be surprised that the Brexiters - who tend to be Conservatives - and therefore traditionally proud and protective of Britain’s global power - are so sanguine about its rapid decline.
But that’s cognitive dissonance for you, I guess.0 -
So inflation coming down, GDP going up. Unemployment/employment both looking amazing.
Everything is going "TREMENDOUSLY" from what I can see.
All we need is May, Hammond and Carney out and a PM/CotE/Governor of the Bank of England who can actually present all this good news to the public rather than looking like they are the chief mourners at the funeral of UKPLC...0 -
That was very prescient.Mortimer said:
You mean, like this?Gardenwalker said:
I’m just talking about the geopolitics.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Walker, leaving the stage? Leaving a situation whereby QMV can impose laws upon us, QMV in which the eurozone has an outright majority and which only exists because a treaty was signed contrary to the manifestos of all three major parties to hold a referendum.
Not being in the EU does not mean being isolationist. The EU is not some paragon of international diplomatic wonderfulness. It's a needless, acquisitive, foolish institution that has grown beyond reason. By necessity and nature it accrues power from democratic nation-states to the centre, which is bureaucratic, deliberately complex so as to be opaque rather than transparent, and utterly unaccountable.
Just look how it ignores votes that don't go its way, or gets the question asked repeatedly until the 'right' answer is given.
Leaving the EU is difficult, largely due to the unasked for and undesired depth of integration, but prising ourselves free of the bureaucratic octopus is necessary.
You’re talking about the nature of the EU beast.
I would respect Brexiters more if they said, look - there’s an economic cost, and we have to accept a loss in global status and influence - but it’s worth it to get control of immigration and freedom from the ECJ.
But mostly they pretend we can have it all.
It is magical thinking.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/16/mortimer-with-a-tip-for-the-more-adventurous-gamblers/
'Remain might struggle to win over voters if they are overplay economics not only because people don’t believe the economic arguments and figures, but also because some of us might consider from experience that the gains of improved sovereignty or a reduction in the immigration figures could be more personally significant.'
I look forward to your future respect
But - as far as I can tell Mortimer, you’ve never entertained the idea that there is any economic cost to Brexit.
So you are still a cake-ist.
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The real medium to long term Brexit benefit will be that our leaders will be forced into finally accepting we are no longer a global power. That could reap significant dividends. But we will need a new generation before it happens.John_M said:
I think out of all the Remain advocates here, @FF43 is most likely correct. The deleterious effects of Brexit will manifest in the medium term. You can defer investment decisions and strategic reviews for 2-3 years, but not forever. Once HMG has negotiated the final deal, businesses will respond to that.GIN1138 said:Happy GDP Day all.
0.5% growth seems encouraging. Despite Brexit?
Once the market had recovered from the shock of the proles disobeying their betters, it was business as usual, albeit with a devalued pound.
I think only the most Panglossian Brexiteers hold to the idea of there being no downsides to Brexit. Whether there are compensatory upsides is still, I suggest, up in the air.
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@GardenWalker.....
The fact that post Brexit the global reach of the UK moves from being central to an economic superbloc to well the square root of fuck all is a good point that you make. How this fits in with the minds of Brexiters who romanticise about the UK's lost past I don't know.
0 -
It is a truth universally acknowledged, that those who dismiss a fraction of a percentage change in inflation are the same people who laud a fraction of a percentage change in quarterly growth.
And that's in spite of Brexit, because of Brexit or with Brexit all the way up your yahoo.0 -
Mr. Walker, there was much blithe complacency on the part of the Leave campaign. And as much fear-mongering and contempt for the UK from the Remain campaign, added to the contempt for democracy shown over the refusal to honour an electoral promise for a referendum on Lisbon.
Mr. Tyson, I think that's the heart of the problem and the polarisation over the EU. The vast majority like the trade. The vast majority dislike the politics. The EU demands both go together.0 -
As a contrarian Brexiteer, it's sad that we're happy with 1.8%. Compared to long term trend growth, it's still shit. We're ten years into our recovery and this is the best we can do?GIN1138 said:So inflation coming down, GDP going up. Unemployment/employment both looking amazing.
Everything is going "TREMENDOUSLY" from what I can see.
All we need is May, Hammond and Carney out and a PM/CotE/Governor of the Bank of England who can actually present all this good news to the public rather than looking like they are the chief mourners at the funeral of UKPLC...
From the perspective of bashing Remainers over the head with some of the ludicrous predictions of APOCALYPSE NOW that we saw during the campaign, yes, give yourself 10 billion Internet Points. From the point of view of wealth creation, I'm disappointed.0 -
I reckon things are going to "take off" this year... Just a hunch.John_M said:
As a contrarian Brexiteer, it's sad that we're happy with 1.8%. Compared to long term trend growth, it's still shit. We're ten years into our recovery and this is the best we can do?GIN1138 said:So inflation coming down, GDP going up. Unemployment/employment both looking amazing.
Everything is going "TREMENDOUSLY" from what I can see.
All we need is May, Hammond and Carney out and a PM/CotE/Governor of the Bank of England who can actually present all this good news to the public rather than looking like they are the chief mourners at the funeral of UKPLC...
From the perspective of bashing Remainers over the head with some of the ludicrous predictions of APOCALYPSE NOW that we saw during the campaign, yes, give yourself 10 billion Internet Points. From the point of view of wealth creation, I'm disappointed. 0 -
Absolutely! The markets have clearly factored in the eventuality of Brexit being bogus and why not: no mainstream politician would risk a real Brexit as the consequences would be unthinkable. Okay, we'll relinquish our voting rights and will become a vassal state but hey ho. And yes - boot out May and Hammond. They've long outlived their usefulness. Get Boris and Rees-Mogg in there as a dream ticket and the entertainment can really begin.GIN1138 said:So inflation coming down, GDP going up. Unemployment/employment both looking amazing.
Everything is going "TREMENDOUSLY" from what I can see.
All we need is May and Hammond out and a PM/CotE who can present all this good news to the public rather than looking like they are the chief mourners at the funeral of UKPLC...0 -
If an idea only has a name because Andrew Mitchell gave it one, that's because it is a bloody silly idea. The evidence that we get real, tangible advantages from Foreign Aid is nil. I'd like to see our involvement in disaster relief maintained at least at present levels, but those advocating anything beyond that are welcome to knock themselves out out of their own pockets at http://www.charitychoice.co.uk/charities/overseas-aidanother_richard said:
So does that mean that British lives and money no longer need to be wasted on foreign wars ?Gardenwalker said:Britain just becomes geopolitically less important post Brexit.
Less important to France and Germany and other European countries as a weight inside the EU.
Less important to the US for the same reason - because less able to influence inside the US’s main rival for trade and financial rule setting.
Less important to China - no longer a voice inside their main export market.
And, to all nations, we are no longer a reliable and stable route into a wealthy market of 500 million people.
And frankly, with Brexit the only show in town, we’re less able to manage an active foreign (and seemingly domestic) policy.
Britain’s global power has of course been in decline for a 100 years. We gave up pretending to be a superpower after Suez, and the 60s and 70s were all about retrenchment.
Thatcher, then Blair, arrested and reversed our decline. We were powerful players in the end of the Cold War, in the establishment of the single market, in the end of apartheid, and in the Falklands, Sierra Leone, and Yugoslavia.
Then, downhill.
Iraq destroyed our credibility. The global financial crisis removed our means. But Brexit is the final nail in the coffin. It’s a retreat not just from a global role, but from a regional one.
I will continue to be surprised that the Brexiters - who tend to be Conservatives - and therefore traditionally proud and protective of Britain’s global power - are so sanguine about its rapid decline.
But that’s cognitive dissonance for you, I guess.
And I guess that means we no longer need to be an 'Aid Superpower' and so can save ourselves another ten billion a year.0 -
The public experiences the economy. The numbers and how they are presented mean absolutely nothing.GIN1138 said:So inflation coming down, GDP going up. Unemployment/employment both looking amazing.
Everything is going "TREMENDOUSLY" from what I can see.
All we need is May, Hammond and Carney out and a PM/CotE/Governor of the Bank of England who can actually present all this good news to the public rather than looking like they are the chief mourners at the funeral of UKPLC...
0 -
Mr. Z, we should revive the concept of enlightened self-interest. Recent news reports stated that Zimbabwe has a lot of mineral wealth but can't exploit it because landowners lack the money to mine it.
We could front up the money. Zimbabwe gets tax revenue, locals get employment, the landowner makes a profit, and we make a profit too. It's good for them and it's good for us.
Why we don't do that is beyond me.0 -
That's a good one. Almost HumptyDumpty-ish: a statistic means what I want it to mean.SouthamObserver said:
The public experiences the economy. The numbers and how they are presented mean absolutely nothing.GIN1138 said:So inflation coming down, GDP going up. Unemployment/employment both looking amazing.
Everything is going "TREMENDOUSLY" from what I can see.
All we need is May, Hammond and Carney out and a PM/CotE/Governor of the Bank of England who can actually present all this good news to the public rather than looking like they are the chief mourners at the funeral of UKPLC...
0 -
Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely! The markets have clearly factored in the eventuality of Brexit being bogus and why not: no mainstream politician would risk a real Brexit as the consequences would be unthinkable. Okay, we'll relinquish our voting rights and will become a vassal state but hey ho. And yes - boot out May and Hammond. They've long outlived their usefulness. Get Boris and Rees-Mogg in there as a dream ticket and the entertainment can really begin.GIN1138 said:So inflation coming down, GDP going up. Unemployment/employment both looking amazing.
Everything is going "TREMENDOUSLY" from what I can see.
All we need is May and Hammond out and a PM/CotE who can present all this good news to the public rather than looking like they are the chief mourners at the funeral of UKPLC...
The Tories are particularly keffuckered regarding their leadership. A Rees Mogg or Boris Premiership will not hold any kind of majority in the HoC let alone the Lords as Remain Tories align themselves with the opposition to stop a hard Brexit. A hard Brexit almost certainly relies on the authority of a second referendum to get over the conundrum that a majority of the HoC are opposed to it.
0 -
Don't you remember: "“That’s your bloody GDP. Not ours.”?geoffw said:
That's a good one. Almost HumptyDumpty-ish: a statistic means what I want it to mean.SouthamObserver said:
The public experiences the economy. The numbers and how they are presented mean absolutely nothing.GIN1138 said:So inflation coming down, GDP going up. Unemployment/employment both looking amazing.
Everything is going "TREMENDOUSLY" from what I can see.
All we need is May, Hammond and Carney out and a PM/CotE/Governor of the Bank of England who can actually present all this good news to the public rather than looking like they are the chief mourners at the funeral of UKPLC...
While article is a tad old, check out the graph.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/10/blunt-heckler-economists-failing-us-booming-britain-gdp-london0 -
China's already on it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Z, we should revive the concept of enlightened self-interest. Recent news reports stated that Zimbabwe has a lot of mineral wealth but can't exploit it because landowners lack the money to mine it.
We could front up the money. Zimbabwe gets tax revenue, locals get employment, the landowner makes a profit, and we make a profit too. It's good for them and it's good for us.
Why we don't do that is beyond me.0 -
Meanwhile the Ministry of Truth (BBC) has been exposed.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/no-defence-left-bbc-damning-figures-prove-brexit-bias/
http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/brusselsbroadcastingcorporation.pdf0 -
Well worth a read. In the end, the choice for Theresa May is going to be the UK economy or the unity of the Conservative party.
http://www.cer.eu/insights/canada-norway-or-something-between0 -
I don't remember. Please remind me.John_M said:
Don't you remember: "“That’s your bloody GDP. Not ours.”?geoffw said:
That's a good one. Almost HumptyDumpty-ish: a statistic means what I want it to mean.SouthamObserver said:
The public experiences the economy. The numbers and how they are presented mean absolutely nothing.GIN1138 said:So inflation coming down, GDP going up. Unemployment/employment both looking amazing.
Everything is going "TREMENDOUSLY" from what I can see.
All we need is May, Hammond and Carney out and a PM/CotE/Governor of the Bank of England who can actually present all this good news to the public rather than looking like they are the chief mourners at the funeral of UKPLC...
While article is a tad old, check out the graph.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/10/blunt-heckler-economists-failing-us-booming-britain-gdp-london
0 -
Keynes was right, but his thinking requires the running of a surplus during the good times. That was Brown’s failure to prepare for the crash, because he thought he could abolish the economic cycle.DecrepitJohnL said:
Keynes might have had a point and the austerity hawks learned nothing from the 1930s?Sandpit said:
Isn’t it amazing how you can get growth by borrowing £160bn a year and printing £250bn more?DecrepitJohnL said:
Fake news. Never mind Brexit -- that Bloomberg graph says that after the global meltdown, Britain returned to growth under Labour. Surely that can't be right???Scott_P said:0 -
sorry @John_M, I replied before the edit.geoffw said:
I don't remember. Please remind me.John_M said:
Don't you remember: "“That’s your bloody GDP. Not ours.”?geoffw said:
That's a good one. Almost HumptyDumpty-ish: a statistic means what I want it to mean.SouthamObserver said:
The public experiences the economy. The numbers and how they are presented mean absolutely nothing.GIN1138 said:So inflation coming down, GDP going up. Unemployment/employment both looking amazing.
Everything is going "TREMENDOUSLY" from what I can see.
All we need is May, Hammond and Carney out and a PM/CotE/Governor of the Bank of England who can actually present all this good news to the public rather than looking like they are the chief mourners at the funeral of UKPLC...
While article is a tad old, check out the graph.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/10/blunt-heckler-economists-failing-us-booming-britain-gdp-london
0
