politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A challenge for Henry Bolton is that he got the job with just

Kudos to the 85 kippers who thought asteroid mining is the nation's top priority.

UK beauty blogger Amena Khan says she's pulling out of a L'Oreal campaign.

Her decision follows the discovery of tweets she wrote in 2014, which some have branded as "anti-Israel".

http://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-42779188

That makes it sound like she was tweeting something like querying Israel's policy of providing public services to illegal settlers..what she in fact said included.

"one that described Israel as an 'illegal state' and another branding the country as a 'child murderer'."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-5298365/LOreal-model-steps-anti-Israel-tweets.html

I wonder what would constitute definitely anti-Israel?

FrancisUrquhart said:

UK beauty blogger Amena Khan says she's pulling out of a L'Oreal campaign.

Her decision follows the discovery of tweets she wrote in 2014, which some have branded as "anti-Israel".

http://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-42779188

That makes it sound like she was tweeting something like querying Israel's policy of providing public services to illegal settlers..what she in fact said included.

"one that described Israel as an 'illegal state' and another branding the country as a 'child murderer'."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-5298365/LOreal-model-steps-anti-Israel-tweets.html

I wonder what would constitute definitely anti-Israel?

I don't see why such opinions (which I totally disagree with) should require her to step down. She may have expressed worse, but those seem to fall within the bounds of legitimate political debate.

Jonathan said:

Henry Bolton is toast. The dream is over.

Henry Bolton is the leader that our nation is crying out for.

Anne Marie Waters must have some mixed feelings right about now...

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/955529524128702465

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42782637

Lawson blames the civil service for frustrating Brexit.

Still gonna happen tho. And you will owe me £1000 as of 29 March 2019. Sorry.

He can reassure himself that at least you won't be feeling two grand.

I'll get my coat...

I can’t say I agree with this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/22/russia-is-biggest-threat-since-cold-war-says-head-of-british-army

I don’t think it’s the place of a military officer to opine in public about whether bases should be retained or not. He might make recommendations, but it is for the minister to decide. Similarly, he should not be publicly lobbying for more money and talking down our current capabilities. If he thinks ministers are truly neglecting defence, he should resign and then make his case publicly.

It’s also worrying that he’s taken a Russian propaganda video so seriously.

Ishmael_Z said:

Jonathan said:

Henry Bolton is toast. The dream is over.

As one dream is over, another surely begins? Gay donkey man's star could be in the ascendant. I'd love to know where we now are, procedurally, under the kipper constitution, but not enough to actually research it for myself. Anyone know?

The word for that is a “vellity”

Scott_P said:

Despite Brexit...

ttps://twitter.com/skynews/status/955537884630671366

Because of Brexit...
https://twitter.com/McLarenAuto/status/953308897347035136

SeanT said:

RoyalBlue said:

I can’t say I agree with this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/22/russia-is-biggest-threat-since-cold-war-says-head-of-british-army

I don’t think it’s the place of a military officer to opine in public about whether bases should be retained or not. He might make recommendations, but it is for the minister to decide. Similarly, he should not be publicly lobbying for more money and talking down our current capabilities. If he thinks ministers are truly neglecting defence, he should resign and then make his case publicly.

It’s also worrying that he’s taken a Russian propaganda video so seriously.

British military dudes have been doing this shit since year dot. American generals do the same. They want to keep the money coming.

I'm not saying he's wrong, personally I would bump up defence spending a bit. But to say top soldiers haven't ever been seen politicking and pork-barrelling before is very naive.

More to the point. he was reported by the BBC as having made the statement with the full approval of the minister - effectively lobbying in behalf of spiderman.

Nigelb said:

Charles said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Jonathan said:

Henry Bolton is toast. The dream is over.

As one dream is over, another surely begins? Gay donkey man's star could be in the ascendant. I'd love to know where we now are, procedurally, under the kipper constitution, but not enough to actually research it for myself. Anyone know?

The word for that is a “vellity”

Velleity ?

A similar root to one of my favourite words: vellichor?

http://www.dictionaryofobscuresorrows.com/post/57250260260/vellichor

SeanT said:

As a Liberal Leaver and a Soft Brexiteer, I'd be quite happy with this. Even 5 years of transition. It took us 40 years to become hideously enmeshed with the EU, taking 5-10 years to disentangle, to minimise damage, is just sensible.

Traitor...

https://twitter.com/gerryhassan/status/955545711357067264

MarkHopkins said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/gerryhassan/status/955545711357067264

Cue "This is an ex-party" sketch.

Only 50p to join

Irony:

Labour half-opposed a preferential electoral system for the UK, yet use a preferential system for leadership elections.

The Conservatives fully opposed a preferential electoral system for the UK, yet use a quasi-preferential system for leadership elections.

UKIP supported a preferential electoral system for the UK, yet use FPTP for leadership elections.

The Lib Dems are sort-of consistent but insist on saying STV when they mean AV.

Evening all

Far more interesting than the continuing travails of UKIP was this in City AM this morning:

http://www.cityam.com/279161/running-mayor-course-am-pimlico-plumbers-boss-charlie

Mullins is considering running as an Independent in the 2020 mayoral election. My initial thought is IF he stands as an Independent against the Conservative, Sadiq Khan will think all his Christmases have come early.

Could Mullins be a viable Conservative candidate to run against Khan ?

Has anyone got a market up about this ?

Is there honey still for tea ?

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

As a Liberal Leaver and a Soft Brexiteer, I'd be quite happy with this. Even 5 years of transition. It took us 40 years to become hideously enmeshed with the EU, taking 5-10 years to disentangle, to minimise damage, is just sensible.

Boris won't wear it.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5339046/boris-johnson-warns-allies-that-brexit-is-still-far-from-certain-and-they-face-a-big-fight-to-deliver-it/

Boris has told confidantes that still having to accept dictats from Brussels would leave the UK as “just another Norway” and the nationwide vote’s landmark result would have proved “a total waste of time”.

In that soft Brexit scenario, the mop-haired Tory boss has even claimed to pals: “I’d rather us stay in than leave like that”.

Its a transition. 5 years is eminently sensible; and actually I'd prefer we'd already left the EU political institutions. 5 years of following rules and an eternity of having actually left is better than 2 years of 'we'll just stay in for now' and an eternity of not having actually left...

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

Despite Brexit...

ttps://twitter.com/skynews/status/955537884630671366

Because of Brexit...
https://twitter.com/McLarenAuto/status/953308897347035136

I assume they are based in Sheffield so as to be as near as possible to Nick Clegg.

Essexit said:

Irony:

Labour half-opposed a preferential electoral system for the UK, yet use a preferential system for leadership elections.

The Conservatives fully opposed a preferential electoral system for the UK, yet use a quasi-preferential system for leadership elections.

UKIP supported a preferential electoral system for the UK, yet use FPTP for leadership elections.

The Lib Dems are sort-of consistent but insist on saying STV when they mean AV.

I thought their plan with leaders was do it fully proportional, with the party getting different leaders on different days of the week, proportional to votes.

stodge said:

Evening all

Far more interesting than the continuing travails of UKIP was this in City AM this morning:

http://www.cityam.com/279161/running-mayor-course-am-pimlico-plumbers-boss-charlie

Mullins is considering running as an Independent in the 2020 mayoral election. My initial thought is IF he stands as an Independent against the Conservative, Sadiq Khan will think all his Christmases have come early.

Could Mullins be a viable Conservative candidate to run against Khan ?

Has anyone got a market up about this ?

Is there honey still for tea ?

I’d guess that if Mullins is serious about running, the Conservatives would put everything behind him rather than run someone against him.

Betfair do have a market up but it hasn’t got going yet. 1.25 to back or 1.5 to lay Khan.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051236/market?marketId=1.129790525

Sandpit said:

I’d guess that if Mullins is serious about running, the Conservatives would put everything behind him rather than run someone against him.

Betfair do have a market up but it hasn’t got going yet. 1.25 to back or 1.5 to lay Khan.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051236/market?marketId=1.129790525

So they wouldn't put up a candidate do Mullins can run as a CON-dependent ? Shades of the tactics used with Zac Goldsmith in the Richmond Park by-election and we know how that turned out.

Do you think the Conservatives should stand aside for Mullins ? This is the London Mayoralty not a by-election.

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/955549328323629056

HHemmelig said:

No. They should run a low key campaign and aim to come 3rd and hope he beats Khan in the second round. Nobody could win the mayoralty under the toxic Conservative party label at the present time. The question is whether they will eventually recover or whether London becomes the Tories' new Scotland in 10 years' time.

There's always the possibility Khan could win 50%+1 in the first round.

HHemmelig said:

stodge said:

Sandpit said:

I’d guess that if Mullins is serious about running, the Conservatives would put everything behind him rather than run someone against him.

Betfair do have a market up but it hasn’t got going yet. 1.25 to back or 1.5 to lay Khan.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051236/market?marketId=1.129790525

So they wouldn't put up a candidate do Mullins can run as a CON-dependent ? Shades of the tactics used with Zac Goldsmith in the Richmond Park by-election and we know how that turned out.

Do you think the Conservatives should stand aside for Mullins ? This is the London Mayoralty not a by-election.

No. They should run a low key campaign and aim to come 3rd and hope he beats Khan in the second round. Nobody could win the mayoralty under the toxic Conservative party label at the present time. The question is whether they will eventually recover or whether London becomes the Tories' new Scotland in 10 years' time.

London (like most capital cities) is now very left wing. The Conservatives need to focus on retaining the right wing districts.

Sean_F said:

London (like most capital cities) is now very left wing. The Conservatives need to focus on retaining the right wing districts.

This year's local elections will give us some clue where the last redoubts are located.

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

As a Liberal Leaver and a Soft Brexiteer, I'd be quite happy with this. Even 5 years of transition. It took us 40 years to become hideously enmeshed with the EU, taking 5-10 years to disentangle, to minimise damage, is just sensible.

Boris won't wear it.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5339046/boris-johnson-warns-allies-that-brexit-is-still-far-from-certain-and-they-face-a-big-fight-to-deliver-it/

Boris has told confidantes that still having to accept dictats from Brussels would leave the UK as “just another Norway” and the nationwide vote’s landmark result would have proved “a total waste of time”.

In that soft Brexit scenario, the mop-haired Tory boss has even claimed to pals: “I’d rather us stay in than leave like that”.

Its a transition. 5 years is eminently sensible; and actually I'd prefer we'd already left the EU political institutions. 5 years of following rules and an eternity of having actually left is better than 2 years of 'we'll just stay in for now' and an eternity of not having actually left...

Didn't Barnier say that Transition has to end by 31 Dec 2020? Anything longer would be the Deal rather than Transition.

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Evening all

Far more interesting than the continuing travails of UKIP was this in City AM this morning:

http://www.cityam.com/279161/running-mayor-course-am-pimlico-plumbers-boss-charlie

Mullins is considering running as an Independent in the 2020 mayoral election. My initial thought is IF he stands as an Independent against the Conservative, Sadiq Khan will think all his Christmases have come early.

Could Mullins be a viable Conservative candidate to run against Khan ?

Has anyone got a market up about this ?

Is there honey still for tea ?

I’d guess that if Mullins is serious about running, the Conservatives would put everything behind him rather than run someone against him.

Betfair do have a market up but it hasn’t got going yet. 1.25 to back or 1.5 to lay Khan.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051236/market?marketId=1.129790525

The Conservative brand is so toxic in London now that no Tory candidate, no matter how strong, could win the mayoralty under that label. The best chance of defeating Labour is if a high profile independent gets into the second round and defeats Khan with the help of second preferences of Tories and Lib Dems. A kind of reverse Ken Livingstone in 2000. Not sure if Mullins is high enough profile, someone like Sugar could do it.

Sugar is certainly the only candidate I can see beating Khan too

No chance.

stodge said:

Sean_F said:

London (like most capital cities) is now very left wing. The Conservatives need to focus on retaining the right wing districts.

This year's local elections will give us some clue where the last redoubts are located.

The Tories were competitive in Outer London in 2017. Inner London was a dead zone for them.

stodge said:

Sean_F said:

London (like most capital cities) is now very left wing. The Conservatives need to focus on retaining the right wing districts.

This year's local elections will give us some clue where the last redoubts are located.

Zones 5 and 6 in areas that generally voted leave - Bromley, Hillingdon, Havering, Bexley. They may hold out for a few years more but I think they are pretty much done in almost all of zones 1-4. Their vote is strongly correlated with areas with large white British and older populations (the two are of course correlated) who are leaving and/or dying out.

Their voting base is leaving London for Essex, Kent, Herts etc and I don't see them replacing it.

Toms said:

Trump, Corbyn and May. And now Bolton?
Is this a new age of political pig pigheadedness?
Or has it always been so.

Given that Aaron Burr (VP*) shot and killed Alexander Hamilton (Sec. Treasury*) over a politicially damaging letter I’d say we still have some way to go

* both retired, but still!

brendan16 said:

stodge said:

Sean_F said:

London (like most capital cities) is now very left wing. The Conservatives need to focus on retaining the right wing districts.

This year's local elections will give us some clue where the last redoubts are located.

Zones 5 and 6 in areas that generally voted leave - Bromley, Hillingdon, Havering, Bexley. They may hold out for a few years more but I think they are pretty much done in almost all of zones 1-4. Their vote is strongly correlated with areas with large white British and older populations (the two are of course correlated) who are leaving and/or dying out.

Their voting base is leaving London for Essex, Kent, Herts etc and I don't see them replacing it.

Their voting base is also one of home owners, and lower middle class and skilled working class voters - all of which are in short supply in Inner London.

brendan16 said:

stodge said:

Sean_F said:

London (like most capital cities) is now very left wing. The Conservatives need to focus on retaining the right wing districts.

This year's local elections will give us some clue where the last redoubts are located.

Zones 5 and 6 in areas that generally voted leave - Bromley, Hillingdon, Havering, Bexley. They may hold out for a few years more but I think they are pretty much done in almost all of zones 1-4. Their vote is strongly correlated with areas with large white British and older populations (the two are of course correlated) who are leaving and/or dying out.

Their voting base is leaving London for Essex, Kent, Herts etc and I don't see them replacing it.

Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea will also still likely be Tory for some time to come, Wandsworth is a bellweather and Barnet leans Tory because of the Jewish vote. Richmond Park and Kingston Upon Thames are unique in London as Labour has little presence there and the battle is between the Tories and LDs

Charles said:

Toms said:

Trump, Corbyn and May. And now Bolton?
Is this a new age of political pig pigheadedness?
Or has it always been so.

Given that Aaron Burr (VP*) shot and killed Alexander Hamilton (Sec. Treasury*) over a politician damaging letter I’d say we still have some way to go

* both retired, but still!

That sounds a bit more like bloody mindedness, emphasising the "bloody", than it does pigheadedness.

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

Despite Brexit...

ttps://twitter.com/skynews/status/955537884630671366

Because of Brexit...
https://twitter.com/McLarenAuto/status/953308897347035136

I assume they are based in Sheffield so as to be as near as possible to Nick Clegg.

Are they going to make a carbon fibre statue of him?

Given that their car factory is in Surrey, I’m assuming there’s some sort of incentive or free zone deal to set up the composites factory 200 miles away?

A composite memorial to the coalition would be somehow appropriate.

Very good.

For some reason, I’ve yet to hear anything from Mr O'Mara MP about a hugely successful British company bringing dozens of hi-tech skilled manufacturing jobs to his city...

Theuniondivvie said:

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

Despite Brexit...

ttps://twitter.com/skynews/status/955537884630671366

Because of Brexit...
https://twitter.com/McLarenAuto/status/953308897347035136

I assume they are based in Sheffield so as to be as near as possible to Nick Clegg.

Are they going to make a carbon fibre statue of him?

Given that their car factory is in Surrey, I’m assuming there’s some sort of incentive or free zone deal to set up the composites factory 200 miles away?

A composite memorial to the coalition would be somehow appropriate.

Progressively delaminating over 5 years would also be good.

Wasn't the failure mode rather a sudden fracture ?

HYUFD said:

Bromley will never vote Labour, even Blair could not win it and the Tories won Bromley and Chislehurst with a comfortable 9,590 majority last June

I think the locals will tell a different story. Bromley will stay Conservative as will Bexley but the likes of Barnet, Hillingdon, Richmond and Kingston could all be lost.

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Evening all

Far more interesting than the continuing travails of UKIP was this in City AM this morning:

http://www.cityam.com/279161/running-mayor-course-am-pimlico-plumbers-boss-charlie

Mullins is considering running as an Independent in the 2020 mayoral election. My initial thought is IF he stands as an Independent against the Conservative, Sadiq Khan will think all his Christmases have come early.

Could Mullins be a viable Conservative candidate to run against Khan ?

Has anyone got a market up about this ?

Is there honey still for tea ?

I’d guess that if Mullins is serious about running, the Conservatives would put everything behind him rather than run someone against him.

Betfair do have a market up but it hasn’t got going yet. 1.25 to back or 1.5 to lay Khan.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051236/market?marketId=1.129790525

The Conservative brand is so toxic in London now that no Tory candidate, no matter how strong, could win the mayoralty under that label. The best chance of defeating Labour is if a high profile independent gets into the second round and defeats Khan with the help of second preferences of Tories and Lib Dems. A kind of reverse Ken Livingstone in 2000. Not sure if Mullins is high enough profile, someone like Sugar could do it.

Sugar is certainly the only candidate I can see beating Khan too

Sugar is too thin-skinned for politics. And no Spurs fan would vote for him!

stodge said:

Evening all

Far more interesting than the continuing travails of UKIP was this in City AM this morning:

http://www.cityam.com/279161/running-mayor-course-am-pimlico-plumbers-boss-charlie

Mullins is considering running as an Independent in the 2020 mayoral election. My initial thought is IF he stands as an Independent against the Conservative, Sadiq Khan will think all his Christmases have come early.

Could Mullins be a viable Conservative candidate to run against Khan ?

Has anyone got a market up about this ?

Is there honey still for tea ?

The bloke is a publicity junkie. There’s no more to it than that.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/955564102134517760

It’s getting harder and harder to understand why May is keeping Johnson in the cabinet. He actively harms UK interests as foreign secretary and he has no notion of collective responsibility. What is the point?

Y0kel said:

Nigel Farage's rumoured return to the political foreground has an ulterior motive. Protection via profile. Farage is a traitor to his country and indeed to the liberal democratic values that enabled the causes for which he claims to represent to succeed.

He is under more than one investigation and may soon have trouble travelling. By re-establishing his profile he can seek to make any case against him as a political witch hunt.

Let’s say this is true, I wonder what his motivation was for being a traitor. Money? Women? Always been secretly anti-British?

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/hendopolis/status/955564102134517760

Now if only the tories has just promised this at the GE and then had boris on the campaign trail where he goes down well.

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

Sandpit said:

stodge said:

Evening all

Far more interesting than the continuing travails of UKIP was this in City AM this morning:

http://www.cityam.com/279161/running-mayor-course-am-pimlico-plumbers-boss-charlie

Mullins is considering running as an Independent in the 2020 mayoral election. My initial thought is IF he stands as an Independent against the Conservative, Sadiq Khan will think all his Christmases have come early.

Could Mullins be a viable Conservative candidate to run against Khan ?

Has anyone got a market up about this ?

Is there honey still for tea ?

I’d guess that if Mullins is serious about running, the Conservatives would put everything behind him rather than run someone against him.

Betfair do have a market up but it hasn’t got going yet. 1.25 to back or 1.5 to lay Khan.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051236/market?marketId=1.129790525

The Conservative brand is so toxic in London now that no Tory candidate, no matter how strong, could win the mayoralty under that label. The best chance of defeating Labour is if a high profile independent gets into the second round and defeats Khan with the help of second preferences of Tories and Lib Dems. A kind of reverse Ken Livingstone in 2000. Not sure if Mullins is high enough profile, someone like Sugar could do it.

Sugar is certainly the only candidate I can see beating Khan too

Sugar is too thin-skinned for politics. And no Spurs fan would vote for him!

He is no more thin-skinned than Trump

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/955564102134517760

It’s getting harder and harder to understand why May is keeping Johnson in the cabinet. He actively harms UK interests as foreign secretary and he has no notion of collective responsibility. What is the point?

As he is the biggest beast in the Tory jungle after May and she cannot afford to have both Mogg and Boris on the backbenches as both have strong membership support

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/955564102134517760

It’s getting harder and harder to understand why May is keeping Johnson in the cabinet. He actively harms UK interests as foreign secretary and he has no notion of collective responsibility. What is the point?

As he is the biggest beast in the Tory jungle after May and she cannot afford to have both Mogg and Boris on the backbenches as both have strong membership support

That might make sense if:
1. Johnson was any good at his job.
2. Was not actively undermining May at every turn anyway.
Keeping him in place just makes her look incredibly weak. Which she is, I guess. But if ever there were an example of a PM putting partybefore country, this is it.

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/955564102134517760

It’s getting harder and harder to understand why May is keeping Johnson in the cabinet. He actively harms UK interests as foreign secretary and he has no notion of collective responsibility. What is the point?

As he is the biggest beast in the Tory jungle after May and she cannot afford to have both Mogg and Boris on the backbenches as both have strong membership support

But why should the rest of the country suffer, just because May is feeble and clueless, and a microscopic number of backwoodmen prefer the throwbacks?

Well Labour is quite prepared to put up a quasi Marxist so there is no reason why the Tories should ignore their base either

Freggles said:

Look, he might have won by a narrow margin, but you can't subvert the will of the people.

#RespectTheResult

#BoltonLeader4Life

Nice trolling