politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour reveals some of its English targets for the next electi
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Am I the only one who looks at that picture and sees this: ?Foxy said:
Plenty of time, but good idea to get PPCs getting under the skin of their new constituencies. Incidentally, I see Momentum now claims a membership of 35 000, so approx 6% of Labour members, nowhere near a plurality, albeit a fairly vocal minority. Something to bear in mind when considering odds of various potential Jezza successors:bigjohnowls said:
Probably a factor. Although given the Toby Young and Ben Bradley fiascos it would appear the problem is not just a Labour one.ydoethur said:
What's the delay? Or were they afraid of more O'Mara and Coad style embarrassments?bigjohnowls said:
New deadline is 31/3/18ydoethur said:
Then that's a second puzzling point - Corbyn has said (sensibly under the circumstances) that he's on a permanent election footing and ready to take on the Tories.MikeSmithson said:
This is not the complete list - just those targets where PPCs are in placeydoethur said:
You are making the assumption that Corbyn is rational and his back-office staff are intelligent.Pulpstar said:Weird list. Macclesfield looks like an overreach whereas commuter towns in the south are missed out such as Stevenage where I'd have thought Labours railway message might work
Hasn't experience taught you that whatever his talent for tapping into raw emotion these are unwise assumptions?
Yet he doesn't have a full slate of candidates in target seats? Very careless.
Local CLPs were supposed to have completed by 31/12/17
More likely down to CLPs being bloody useless in a lot of cases.
https://twitter.com/Moosedog23/status/954055326638198784/photo/1
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That's still not as good as 'Trump: no heart, cognitive issues.'SeaShantyIrish said:Ahem, I meant a MORE winnable seat for NPxMP
I used that yesterday as an example of why good punctuation matters.0 -
When was the last time we had a shutdown when one party controlled all three parts of the executive and legislature?0
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Great to see you on the site again. I was in your wonderful city of Seattle last month. Absolutely a must visit. We just stayed 3 nights which wasn't enough and hopefully we'll be back in the not too distant future.SeaShantyIrish said:ALL parties experience difficulties with unsuitable candidates. Which can often be exacerbated when a party is a) unprepared for an election (or less prepared than they'd like to be; and/or b) does better when the votes are counted than was believed possible, by winning seats it (and just about everyone else) thought they'd lose.
Just one example: in 1932, Democrats in Washington State, with FDR and Hoover atop the national tickets, won a smashing victory, and went from a weak minority to a strong majority in the state legislature. Unfortunately, one Dem elected to state house in a formerly safe Republican district turned out to have been convicted of statutory rape, an "infamous felony" that rendered him ineligible to serve (or even be a voter). So first act of the new WA House of Representatives upon organization, was expelling this guy.
Another problem for Democrats that session, was many were elected who had NOT expected to have to spend the first weeks of 1933 serving in the legislature and living in Olympia - they had to jam themselve four-or-more deep in whatever rooms they could find AND afford.0 -
Maybe 10% of those on the Left are actually Momentum MEMBERS in my CLP.
I think 6% is about right but that equates to 60% of members who are Corbyn supporting.
My CLP supported Corbyn over Smith by 65% to 35% and that was with new members locked out.
I and 90% of active members of my Branch consider ourselves to be on the left of the party not a single one of us is a Momentum member.0 -
1980 under Carter.TheScreamingEagles said:When was the last time we had a shutdown when one party controlled all three parts of the executive and legislature?
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Depends on what you count as a shutdown. The US didn't used to actually send everyone home in the Federal government during a funding gap, until the Attorney General re-interpreted the law in the early 1980s. There were some 1979 funding gaps under Carter and a Democrat Congress - but none since shutdowns became Shutdowns, if you catch my drift.TheScreamingEagles said:When was the last time we had a shutdown when one party controlled all three parts of the executive and legislature?
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Wiki says Carter's last was in October 1979? It may be wrong though.ydoethur said:
1980 under Carter.TheScreamingEagles said:When was the last time we had a shutdown when one party controlled all three parts of the executive and legislature?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_federal_funding_gaps0 -
One day in May 1980.Quincel said:
Wiki says Carter's last was in October 1979? It may be wrong though.ydoethur said:
1980 under Carter.TheScreamingEagles said:When was the last time we had a shutdown when one party controlled all three parts of the executive and legislature?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_federal_funding_gaps
To confirm Wikipedia is amusingly inconsistent even within itself, see this page:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_shutdowns_in_the_United_States
But this link seems reliable:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1981/11/24/behind-the-shutdown-a-long-dormant-law/43585d40-843b-4f2e-a8b3-0a74b2350fcc/?utm_term=.07bf0ee592a70 -
ydoethur said:
1980 under Carter.TheScreamingEagles said:When was the last time we had a shutdown when one party controlled all three parts of the executive and legislature?
ThanksQuincel said:
Depends on what you count as a shutdown. The US didn't used to actually send everyone home in the Federal government during a funding gap, until the Attorney General re-interpreted the law in the early 1980s. There were some 1979 funding gaps under Carter and a Democrat Congress - but none since shutdowns became Shutdowns, if you catch my drift.TheScreamingEagles said:When was the last time we had a shutdown when one party controlled all three parts of the executive and legislature?
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I can't see a London seat in the list above.0
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Sure, and that was not far off national figures so Chesterfield may well be fairly typical.bigjohnowls said:Maybe 10% of those on the Left are actually Momentum MEMBERS in my CLP.
I think 6% is about right but that equates to 60% of members who are Corbyn supporting.
My CLP supported Corbyn over Smith by 65% to 35% and that was with new members locked out.
I and 90% of active members of my Branch consider ourselves to be on the left of the party not a single one of us is a Momentum member.
When PBers post about Momentum's influence, it is worth bearing in mind that even most leftwing Labour members are not taking orders, indeed my recollection is that members do not like being told who they should vote for.0 -
Interesting, thanks.ydoethur said:
One day in May 1980.Quincel said:
Wiki says Carter's last was in October 1979? It may be wrong though.ydoethur said:
1980 under Carter.TheScreamingEagles said:When was the last time we had a shutdown when one party controlled all three parts of the executive and legislature?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_federal_funding_gaps
To confirm Wikipedia is amusingly inconsistent even within itself, see this page:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_shutdowns_in_the_United_States
But this link seems reliable:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1981/11/24/behind-the-shutdown-a-long-dormant-law/43585d40-843b-4f2e-a8b3-0a74b2350fcc/?utm_term=.07bf0ee592a70 -
Momentum does have influence. Their members are regularly pushing lines in social media channels, promoting candidates in internal elections and posing motions in various bodies.Foxy said:
Sure, and that was not far off national figures so Chesterfield may well be fairly typical.bigjohnowls said:Maybe 10% of those on the Left are actually Momentum MEMBERS in my CLP.
I think 6% is about right but that equates to 60% of members who are Corbyn supporting.
My CLP supported Corbyn over Smith by 65% to 35% and that was with new members locked out.
I and 90% of active members of my Branch consider ourselves to be on the left of the party not a single one of us is a Momentum member.
When PBers post about Momentum's influence, it is worth bearing in mind that even most leftwing Labour members are not taking orders, indeed myvrecollection is that members do not like being told who they should vote for.
In internal party politics a few organised and motivated souls can and do make s big difference.
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Watford would be the nearest. It's Hertfordshire, but still inside the M25.Andy_JS said:I can't see a London seat in the list above.
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Correct. In fact in NE Derbyshire "National Momentum" endorsed a Candidate without even consulting the local Momentum Branch.Foxy said:
Sure, and that was not far off national figures so Chesterfield may well be fairly typical.bigjohnowls said:Maybe 10% of those on the Left are actually Momentum MEMBERS in my CLP.
I think 6% is about right but that equates to 60% of members who are Corbyn supporting.
My CLP supported Corbyn over Smith by 65% to 35% and that was with new members locked out.
I and 90% of active members of my Branch consider ourselves to be on the left of the party not a single one of us is a Momentum member.
When PBers post about Momentum's influence, it is worth bearing in mind that even most leftwing Labour members are not taking orders, indeed my recollection is that members do not like being told who they should vote for.
Peoples front of Judea stuff but may well just lose that candidate enough votes if its close.
The fact the Derbyshire Times is banging on about Bex with supportive articles for 3 weeks running might be counter productive for her though0 -
Even a few LD Centrist Dads follow @MomentumJonathan said:
Momentum does have influence. Their members are regularly pushing lines in social media channels, promoting candidates in internal elections and posing motions in various bodies.Foxy said:
Sure, and that was not far off national figures so Chesterfield may well be fairly typical.bigjohnowls said:Maybe 10% of those on the Left are actually Momentum MEMBERS in my CLP.
I think 6% is about right but that equates to 60% of members who are Corbyn supporting.
My CLP supported Corbyn over Smith by 65% to 35% and that was with new members locked out.
I and 90% of active members of my Branch consider ourselves to be on the left of the party not a single one of us is a Momentum member.
When PBers post about Momentum's influence, it is worth bearing in mind that even most leftwing Labour members are not taking orders, indeed myvrecollection is that members do not like being told who they should vote for.
In internal party politics a few organised and motivated souls can and do make s big difference.
But while they can influence, the idea that they can annoint a successor to Jezza for rubber stamping by a pliant Labour membership is for the birds.0 -
Why? What's the animus against the Derbyshire Times?bigjohnowls said:Correct. In fact in NE Derbyshire "National Momentum" endorsed a Candidate without even consulting the local Momentum Branch.
Peoples front of Judea stuff but may well just lose that candidate enough votes if its close.
The fact the Derbyshire Times is banging on about Bex with supportive articles for 3 weeks running might be counter productive for her though0 -
Its owned by Thomson press.ydoethur said:
Why? What's the animus against the Derbyshire Times?bigjohnowls said:Correct. In fact in NE Derbyshire "National Momentum" endorsed a Candidate without even consulting the local Momentum Branch.
Peoples front of Judea stuff but may well just lose that candidate enough votes if its close.
The fact the Derbyshire Times is banging on about Bex with supportive articles for 3 weeks running might be counter productive for her though
Most party members would consider it to be a Tory Rag. And people just dont like seeing it "backing" one of the Candidates (who just happens to be the most Anti Jezza Candidate)
Apparently they lost over 100 of their Annual Subscribers over the Tory Wrap around at GE 2017 I am told.0 -
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I see. Thanks.bigjohnowls said:
Its owned by Thomson press.ydoethur said:
Why? What's the animus against the Derbyshire Times?bigjohnowls said:Correct. In fact in NE Derbyshire "National Momentum" endorsed a Candidate without even consulting the local Momentum Branch.
Peoples front of Judea stuff but may well just lose that candidate enough votes if its close.
The fact the Derbyshire Times is banging on about Bex with supportive articles for 3 weeks running might be counter productive for her though
Most party members would consider it to be a Tory Rag. And people just dont like seeing it "backing" one of the Candidates (who just happens to be the most Anti Jezza Candidate)
Apparently they lost over 100 of their Annual Subscribers over the Tory Wrap around at GE 2017 I am told.0 -
Off Topic I see the Stan James name disappears next month.
Took over by UNIBET a while back all SJ Customers are moved over first week in Feb and name goes completely later in February.
I will miss it and despite being told the new product will be better will reserve judgement on that.
I have had 5 lots of Hospitality including 3 Cheltenham Boxes in the last year. At the last one they gave away 4 i Phone 10s over 2 days.
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What has happened to the investigation into her claims?bigjohnowls said:
Its owned by Thomson press.ydoethur said:
Why? What's the animus against the Derbyshire Times?bigjohnowls said:Correct. In fact in NE Derbyshire "National Momentum" endorsed a Candidate without even consulting the local Momentum Branch.
Peoples front of Judea stuff but may well just lose that candidate enough votes if its close.
The fact the Derbyshire Times is banging on about Bex with supportive articles for 3 weeks running might be counter productive for her though
Most party members would consider it to be a Tory Rag. And people just dont like seeing it "backing" one of the Candidates (who just happens to be the most Anti Jezza Candidate)
Apparently they lost over 100 of their Annual Subscribers over the Tory Wrap around at GE 2017 I am told.0 -
bad memories.,,,bigjohnowls said:Off Topic I see the Stan James name disappears next month.
Took over by UNIBET a while back all SJ Customers are moved over first week in Feb and name goes completely later in February.
I will miss it and despite being told the new product will be better will reserve judgement on that.
I have had 5 lots of Hospitality including 3 Cheltenham Boxes in the last year. At the last one they gave away 4 i Phone 10s over 2 days.
I had a shop bet with SJ on sadiq khan 4 next london mayor @ 40/1 for £25, way back in ~2013 (IIRC, following a tip on PB from @HenryGManson )
I still can't find the damn betting slip.....
I'll have one last look tomorrow.0 -
They closed my accountbigjohnowls said:I have had 5 lots of Hospitality including 3 Cheltenham Boxes in the last year. At the last one they gave away 4 i Phone 10s over 2 days.
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Who are the Brexit three?0
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Ouch!Pong said:
bad memories.,,,bigjohnowls said:Off Topic I see the Stan James name disappears next month.
Took over by UNIBET a while back all SJ Customers are moved over first week in Feb and name goes completely later in February.
I will miss it and despite being told the new product will be better will reserve judgement on that.
I have had 5 lots of Hospitality including 3 Cheltenham Boxes in the last year. At the last one they gave away 4 i Phone 10s over 2 days.
I had a shop bet with SJ on sadiq khan 4 next london mayor @ 40/1 for £25, way back in ~2013 (IIRC, following a tip on PB from @HenryGManson )
I still can't find the damn betting slip.....
I'll have one last look tomorrow.0 -
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Desperation from Boris... His article sounds like a long-form version of this tweet from his Telegraph friend:
https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/9547536822891233280 -
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But not in Greater London. Mike actually says in the text of his thread:ThomasNashe said:
Watford would be the nearest. It's Hertfordshire, but still inside the M25.Andy_JS said:I can't see a London seat in the list above.
"The geographical location is interesting with none being within Greater London."0 -
Maybe, but this is funnier and more visually aposite if you make the connection.Sandpit said:
Am I the only one who looks at that picture and sees this: ?Foxy said:
Plenty of time, but good idea to get PPCs getting under the skin of their new constituencies. Incidentally, I see Momentum now claims a membership of 35 000, so approx 6% of Labour members, nowhere near a plurality, albeit a fairly vocal minority. Something to bear in mind when considering odds of various potential Jezza successors:bigjohnowls said:
Probably a factor. Although given the Toby Young and Ben Bradley fiascos it would appear the problem is not just a Labour one.ydoethur said:
What's the delay? Or were they afraid of more O'Mara and Coad style embarrassments?bigjohnowls said:
New deadline is 31/3/18ydoethur said:
Then that's a second puzzling point - Corbyn has said (sensibly under the circumstances) that he's on a permanent election footing and ready to take on the Tories.MikeSmithson said:
This is not the complete list - just those targets where PPCs are in placeydoethur said:
You are making the assumption that Corbyn is rational and his back-office staff are intelligent.Pulpstar said:Weird list. Macclesfield looks like an overreach whereas commuter towns in the south are missed out such as Stevenage where I'd have thought Labours railway message might work
Hasn't experience taught you that whatever his talent for tapping into raw emotion these are unwise assumptions?
Yet he doesn't have a full slate of candidates in target seats? Very careless.
Local CLPs were supposed to have completed by 31/12/17
More likely down to CLPs being bloody useless in a lot of cases.
https://twitter.com/Moosedog23/status/954055326638198784/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Markgatiss/status/9540457925574533120 -
Scott_P said:
That just goes to show how out of touch Theresa May`s Foreign Secretary is.0 -
Does the mean that top Conservatives are corrupt? Just asking.....Scott_P said:0 -
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Momentum have clearly decided they need to add at least another 50 MPs to their ranks within the 262 current Labour MPs and do the same with Labour candidates in Tory marginals too to ensure Corbyn has a clear enough mandate for his programme if he forms a government, ideally one with an overall working majoritybigjohnowls said:0 -
Good to see you back.SeaShantyIrish said:On topic, suggest that PBers with some influence in Labour Party circles (you know who you are) help Nick P xMP to find a less-marginal, winnable seat.
Off topic, proud that my Mayor, Jenny Durkan has got today's Womens March in Seattle off to a great start despite less-than-appealing weather.
Also off topic, am highly dubious re: the federal govt shutdown. For one thing, reckon it's going over like lead balloon with majority of Americans across political spectrum. For another, wish that IF congressional Dems want a shutdown, they'd pick some issue OTHER than immigration to make a stand - something, anything that wouild help us in rust belts and rural districts where Dems used to win national elections, areas where urban Dem elitism & ID politicshas hollowed out former Dem voting strength.0 -
Oh I see the last sentence has a quote from Momentum saying they are not campaigning for the deselection of any sitting MPs.
Murdoch Bullshit Methinks0 -
They would say that thoughbigjohnowls said:Oh I see the last sentence has a quote from Momentum saying they are not campaigning for the deselection of any sitting MPs.
Murdoch Bullshit Methinks0 -
Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.bigjohnowls said:Oh I see the last sentence has a quote from Momentum saying they are not campaigning for the deselection of any sitting MPs.
Murdoch Bullshit Methinks0 -
williamglenn said:
Who are the Brexit three?
Remember the Mail on Sunday is a full on remainer paper unlike the Daily MailPClipp said:
Does the mean that top Conservatives are corrupt? Just asking.....Scott_P said:0 -
My moles tell me the Brexit three on the front of The Mail on Sunday are
i) Andrew Mitchell
ii) Peter Lilley
iii) Andrew Lansley0 -
Why dont they make up I mean print the list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.bigjohnowls said:Oh I see the last sentence has a quote from Momentum saying they are not campaigning for the deselection of any sitting MPs.
Murdoch Bullshit Methinks0 -
Well no surprise thereTheScreamingEagles said:My moles tell me the Brexit three on the front of The Mail on Sunday are
i) Andrew Mitchell
ii) Peter Lilley
iii) Andrew Lansley0 -
Boris with all his faults is nowhere near TrumpPClipp said:0 -
No, Trump's actually built things with his name on them...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Boris with all his faults is nowhere near TrumpPClipp said:0 -
The next twelve months will be a watershed for many moderate labour MP'sbigjohnowls said:
Why dont they make up I mean print the list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.bigjohnowls said:Oh I see the last sentence has a quote from Momentum saying they are not campaigning for the deselection of any sitting MPs.
Murdoch Bullshit Methinks0 -
Only a witch would deny that she is a witch!Big_G_NorthWales said:
They would say that thoughbigjohnowls said:Oh I see the last sentence has a quote from Momentum saying they are not campaigning for the deselection of any sitting MPs.
Murdoch Bullshit Methinks
https://youtu.be/zrzMhU_4m-g0 -
Do 'we'? Boris was effectively the de facto leader of the Leave campaign in 2016 which won the referendum despite the 3 main party leaders, Cameron, Corbyn and Farron backing Remain, with Leave also being endorsed by Trump of course.PClipp said:
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Big_G_NorthWales said:
The next twelve months will be a watershed for many moderate labour MP'sbigjohnowls said:
Why dont they make up I mean print the list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.bigjohnowls said:Oh I see the last sentence has a quote from Momentum saying they are not campaigning for the deselection of any sitting MPs.
Murdoch Bullshit Methinks
A watershed ... or a tsunami.
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Hilary Benn and both the Eagle sisters are on the Momentum hit list.0
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Well that should alert the 170 odd who rebelled against him. This could become very serious for labourTGOHF said:Hilary Benn and both the Eagle sisters are on the Momentum hit list.
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Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well that should alert the 170 odd who rebelled against him. This could become very serious for labourTGOHF said:Hilary Benn and both the Eagle sisters are on the Momentum hit list.
Chris Leslie too .Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well that should alert the 170 odd who rebelled against him. This could become very serious for labourTGOHF said:Hilary Benn and both the Eagle sisters are on the Momentum hit list.
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Mike! Glad you & yours enjoyed your recent visit to Seattle & the Pacific Northwest. It's truly a remarkable part of the world. And am sure the weather made you feel at home. Just out of curiosity, what did you find (good and/or bad) that you least expected?
Re: WA State politics, Democratic victory in key state senate special election last year means that Dems control Gov's office and both houses of legislature. Result for current legislative session is end to previous partisan log-jam. On Friday Gov. Jay Inslee signed state capital budget, huge deal for state, regional local infrastructure & projects. Dems are also moving number of election bills, for example same-day voter registration (allowing eligible citizens to register at the time the cast their ballot) and expanded ability to bring suit to redistrict local councils (such as federal suit that ended up redistricting Yakima, WA city council which resulted in first-ever election of Hispanics in town that's had a large Latino majority for some time.
Current economic boom which is strong in Seattle area (& also WA burbs of Portland, OR) but spotty in rest of state is swelling state coffers. HOWEVER legislature is under state court order to find more funding for public education (the "paramount duty" of state government under the WA constitution) so fiscal picture is still unclear. Especially since most voters - particularly swing voters in swing districts - are currently allergic to taxes in general, though they will often support specific taxes such as local school levies. For some this is typical, but for others it's because they have NOT yet benefited enough, and do NOT yet have enough confidence in the economic upswing.
In this year's mid-term elections all 98 state house seats are up, along with half of 49-seat state senate. So far all indications are that national AND statewide political climate will favor Dems. In only statewide partisan election, US Sen. Maria Cantwell has yet to draw any serious opposition from Rs or Ds and looks to be a lock for re-election. As for Congress & legislature, fact that redistricting must be done by partisan consensus in WA means that number of swing districts is quite limited. Most likely federal pickup for Dems is 8th CD where incumbent Dave Reichert is retiring, but this district is a VERY tough nut to crack, esp as third is pro-Trump rural turf.0 -
Subtract 50 from 170 and you get to 120 ie less than half the 262 current number of Labour MPs. So you can see the logic in Momentum's position, especially when you consider most of the 30 extra Labour MPs who won their seats last June will be grateful to Corbyn under whose leadership they won their seatsBig_G_NorthWales said:
Well that should alert the 170 odd who rebelled against him. This could become very serious for labourTGOHF said:Hilary Benn and both the Eagle sisters are on the Momentum hit list.
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Well, that's quite an attractive Manifesto.....TGOHF said:Hilary Benn and both the Eagle sisters are on the Momentum hit list.
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The problem with that is a move against the 50 would by definition scare the rest and would almost certainly see a split as has just been said by the Sky paper reviewersHYUFD said:
Subtract 50 from 170 and you get to 120 ie less than half the 262 current number of Labour MPs. So you can see the logic in Momentum's position, especially when you consider most of the 30 extra Labour MPs who won their seats last June will be grateful to Corbyn under whose leadership they won their seatsBig_G_NorthWales said:
Well that should alert the 170 odd who rebelled against him. This could become very serious for labourTGOHF said:Hilary Benn and both the Eagle sisters are on the Momentum hit list.
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Confirmed.
Top Tories in Chinese 'cash for Brexit' furore: Three ex-Cabinet Ministers targeted by 'Miss Liu' in Mayfair consultancy sting
Senior politicians were allegedly lured to Chinese company's luxury offices
They were promised cash and all expenses paid trip to Hong Kong for their info
Andrew Lansley, Andrew Mitchell and Peter Lilley have all denied wrongdoing
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5292825/Cabinet-ministers-told-China-make-money-Brexit.html0 -
Opposition to a transition deal from Jacob Rees-Mogg.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/9548311690104954890 -
Two of the three are no longer in the Commons.TheScreamingEagles said:Confirmed.
Top Tories in Chinese 'cash for Brexit' furore: Three ex-Cabinet Ministers targeted by 'Miss Liu' in Mayfair consultancy sting
Senior politicians were allegedly lured to Chinese company's luxury offices
They were promised cash and all expenses paid trip to Hong Kong for their info
Andrew Lansley, Andrew Mitchell and Peter Lilley have all denied wrongdoing
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5292825/Cabinet-ministers-told-China-make-money-Brexit.html0 -
What number of Labour MPs do you expect to be deselected this year?MarkHopkins said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The next twelve months will be a watershed for many moderate labour MP'sbigjohnowls said:
Why dont they make up I mean print the list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.bigjohnowls said:Oh I see the last sentence has a quote from Momentum saying they are not campaigning for the deselection of any sitting MPs.
Murdoch Bullshit Methinks
A watershed ... or a tsunami.
There could be the makings of a bet here, though would need some clear criteria.0 -
So the Dispatches story is the ex MPs were offered cash and didn’t take it.
Hold the Pulitzer nominations...0 -
I believe a lot of Fentanyl, the strongest and most dangerous opioid, is made in China.another_richard said:
Could it be possible that the Chinese are manufacturing at 'extra stength' ?Charles said:
Not ironic. Deliberate. Revenge is a dish best served cold.The_Apocalypse said:FPT:
Thanks for that info, it’s sadly ironic that’s the case.Charles said:
FWIW I was told the other day that many of the opioids are being manufactured in Chinese state owned facilitiesThe_Apocalypse said:
I was also told that the percentage of the US population addicted is remarkably similar to the percentage of Chinese addicted in the opium wars...0 -
I think it is hard to call but if the ones named were the warfare in labour would rival Kinnocks battles against the hard left. It really is worrying and sad.Foxy said:
What number of Labour MPs do you expect to be deselected this year?MarkHopkins said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The next twelve months will be a watershed for many moderate labour MP'sbigjohnowls said:
Why dont they make up I mean print the list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.bigjohnowls said:Oh I see the last sentence has a quote from Momentum saying they are not campaigning for the deselection of any sitting MPs.
Murdoch Bullshit Methinks
A watershed ... or a tsunami.
There could be the makings of a bet here, though would need some clear criteria.
It is the last thing the Country needs just now but beginning to look inevitable0 -
Only if someone like Umunna took the plunge and led a move to an En Marche style partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
The problem with that is a move against the 50 would by definition scare the rest and would almost certainly see a split as has just been said by the Sky paper reviewersHYUFD said:
Subtract 50 from 170 and you get to 120 ie less than half the 262 current number of Labour MPs. So you can see the logic in Momentum's position, especially when you consider most of the 30 extra Labour MPs who won their seats last June will be grateful to Corbyn under whose leadership they won their seatsBig_G_NorthWales said:
Well that should alert the 170 odd who rebelled against him. This could become very serious for labourTGOHF said:Hilary Benn and both the Eagle sisters are on the Momentum hit list.
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Apparently Mogg has 100 Tory MPs behind him to vote to end free movement and leave the single market on 31st March 2019 as soon as Brexit is completed. However May should still be able to get the 2 year transition period through, though she will probably have to rely on Labour, LD and SNP votes to do sowilliamglenn said:Opposition to a transition deal from Jacob Rees-Mogg.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/9548311690104954890 -
I go for less than 1 where someone on the fictitious list is actually deselected in 2018.Foxy said:
What number of Labour MPs do you expect to be deselected this year?MarkHopkins said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The next twelve months will be a watershed for many moderate labour MP'sbigjohnowls said:
Why dont they make up I mean print the list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.bigjohnowls said:Oh I see the last sentence has a quote from Momentum saying they are not campaigning for the deselection of any sitting MPs.
Murdoch Bullshit Methinks
A watershed ... or a tsunami.
There could be the makings of a bet here, though would need some clear criteria.0 -
I'm sure Corbyn can be relied upon not to bring the government down over Brexit...HYUFD said:Apparently Mogg has 100 Tory MPs behind him to vote to end free movement and leave the single market on 31st March 2019 as soon as Brexit is completed. However May should still be able to get the 2 year transition period through, though she will probably have to rely on Labour, LD and SNP votes to do so
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So none?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is hard to call but if the ones named were the warfare in labour would rival Kinnocks battles against the hard left. It really is worrying and sad.Foxy said:
What number of Labour MPs do you expect to be deselected this year?MarkHopkins said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The next twelve months will be a watershed for many moderate labour MP'sbigjohnowls said:
Why dont they make up I mean print the list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.bigjohnowls said:Oh I see the last sentence has a quote from Momentum saying they are not campaigning for the deselection of any sitting MPs.
Murdoch Bullshit Methinks
A watershed ... or a tsunami.
There could be the makings of a bet here, though would need some clear criteria.
It is the last thing the Country needs just now but beginning to look inevitable
Pretty much my thoughts. Possibly Kate Joey, but even that Garage kiss are is probably safe.0 -
So no one with any actual influence then?TheScreamingEagles said:My moles tell me the Brexit three on the front of The Mail on Sunday are
i) Andrew Mitchell
ii) Peter Lilley
iii) Andrew Lansley0 -
Corbyn might vote down the government even at the cost of no transition period, pro single market backbenchers like Umunna certainly would not, so on such a vote May could face a Mogg led revolt and Corbyn an Umunna led revolt but with most Tory MPs still backing a transition it should get throughwilliamglenn said:
I'm sure Corbyn can be relied upon not to bring the government down over Brexit...HYUFD said:Apparently Mogg has 100 Tory MPs behind him to vote to end free movement and leave the single market on 31st March 2019 as soon as Brexit is completed. However May should still be able to get the 2 year transition period through, though she will probably have to rely on Labour, LD and SNP votes to do so
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I would have thought the most likely deselection is actually a Corbynista, Jared O’MaraFoxy said:
What number of Labour MPs do you expect to be deselected this year?MarkHopkins said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The next twelve months will be a watershed for many moderate labour MP'sbigjohnowls said:
Why dont they make up I mean print the list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.bigjohnowls said:Oh I see the last sentence has a quote from Momentum saying they are not campaigning for the deselection of any sitting MPs.
Murdoch Bullshit Methinks
A watershed ... or a tsunami.
There could be the makings of a bet here, though would need some clear criteria.0 -
I am not sure but I doubt it will be nil. Genuine labour supporters need to be careful they do not get complacent by thinking that they will act as a brake on Corbyn' excesses. He has come this far and I doubt the tens of thousands of his supporters will be satisfied until they achieve a Corbyn complaint partyFoxy said:
So none?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it is hard to call but if the ones named were the warfare in labour would rival Kinnocks battles against the hard left. It really is worrying and sad.Foxy said:
What number of Labour MPs do you expect to be deselected this year?MarkHopkins said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The next twelve months will be a watershed for many moderate labour MP'sbigjohnowls said:
Why dont they make up I mean print the list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.bigjohnowls said:Oh I see the last sentence has a quote from Momentum saying they are not campaigning for the deselection of any sitting MPs.
Murdoch Bullshit Methinks
A watershed ... or a tsunami.
There could be the makings of a bet here, though would need some clear criteria.
It is the last thing the Country needs just now but beginning to look inevitable
Pretty much my thoughts. Possibly Kate Joey, but even that Garage kiss are is probably safe.0 -
I have read the story on line and it is nonsense. Pity journalists didn't have more important stories to writeCharles said:
So no one with any actual influence then?TheScreamingEagles said:My moles tell me the Brexit three on the front of The Mail on Sunday are
i) Andrew Mitchell
ii) Peter Lilley
iii) Andrew Lansley0 -
CBI calls for UK to stay in the customs union and abandon having its own trade deals
https://www.ft.com/content/dc735ad4-fd3a-11e7-a492-2c9be7f3120a0 -
Good night everyone0
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As he is suspended from the party, would that count as a deselection?YBarddCwsc said:
I would have thought the most likely deselection is actually a Corbynista, Jared O’MaraFoxy said:
What number of Labour MPs do you expect to be deselected this year?MarkHopkins said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The next twelve months will be a watershed for many moderate labour MP'sbigjohnowls said:
Why dont they make up I mean print the list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.bigjohnowls said:Oh I see the last sentence has a quote from Momentum saying they are not campaigning for the deselection of any sitting MPs.
Murdoch Bullshit Methinks
A watershed ... or a tsunami.
There could be the makings of a bet here, though would need some clear criteria.
But I agree, he is likely to be replaced, though his quietness does make me wonder if he is well.
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The bit I always find disturbing about Seattle is the large number of homeless/mentally ill/heroin addicts.SeaShantyIrish said:Mike! Glad you & yours enjoyed your recent visit to Seattle & the Pacific Northwest. It's truly a remarkable part of the world. And am sure the weather made you feel at home. Just out of curiosity, what did you find (good and/or bad) that you least expected?
Re: WA State politics, Democratic victory in key state senate special election last year means that Dems control Gov's office and both houses of legislature. Result for current legislative session is end to previous partisan log-jam. On Friday Gov. Jay Inslee signed state capital budget, huge deal for state, regional local infrastructure & projects. Dems are also moving number of election bills, for example same-day voter registration (allowing eligible citizens to register at the time the cast their ballot) and expanded ability to bring suit to redistrict local councils (such as federal suit that ended up redistricting Yakima, WA city council which resulted in first-ever election of Hispanics in town that's had a large Latino majority for some time.
Current economic boom which is strong in Seattle area (& also WA burbs of Portland, OR) but spotty in rest of state is swelling state coffers. HOWEVER legislature is under state court order to find more funding for public education (the "paramount duty" of state government under the WA constitution) so fiscal picture is still unclear. Especially since most voters - particularly swing voters in swing districts - are currently allergic to taxes in general, though they will often support specific taxes such as local school levies. For some this is typical, but for others it's because they have NOT yet benefited enough, and do NOT yet have enough confidence in the economic upswing.
In this year's mid-term elections all 98 state house seats are up, along with half of 49-seat state senate. So far all indications are that national AND statewide political climate will favor Dems. In only statewide partisan election, US Sen. Maria Cantwell has yet to draw any serious opposition from Rs or Ds and looks to be a lock for re-election. As for Congress & legislature, fact that redistricting must be done by partisan consensus in WA means that number of swing districts is quite limited. Most likely federal pickup for Dems is 8th CD where incumbent Dave Reichert is retiring, but this district is a VERY tough nut to crack, esp as third is pro-Trump rural turf.
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I think there's a very real risk that the Labour Party will not support the government on this - even the pro EU MPs. Why? Because they want power, and they want to embarrass the government. Putting my cynical hat on, a government defeat, followed by a chaotic exit from the EU (with no transition) would not be good for Sterling or the British economy.HYUFD said:
Apparently Mogg has 100 Tory MPs behind him to vote to end free movement and leave the single market on 31st March 2019 as soon as Brexit is completed. However May should still be able to get the 2 year transition period through, though she will probably have to rely on Labour, LD and SNP votes to do sowilliamglenn said:Opposition to a transition deal from Jacob Rees-Mogg.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/954831169010495489
A recession is the best chance for Labour to get elected.0 -
Yes, that's what I've thought too. The near-absence of press stories about his absence might also hint at that - the press do try to be relatively decent if a well-known figure is actually ill and nothing crucial is at stake. But he did say a couple of days ago that he was returning to work.Foxy said:
As he is suspended from the party, would that count as a deselection?
But I agree, he is likely to be replaced, though his quietness does make me wonder if he is well.
Meanwhile, the latest German polls don't show the drop in social democrat votes reported by last week's polls - in fact the latest one, Emnid, shows everyone slightly up on the election, except for the FDP, who triggered the crisis by walking out of the talks.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/0 -
With your realist hat on, do you seriously think a government defeat leads to a no deal exit? This will all be unfolding this autumn, with months of political chaos between the defeat and the date when the treaties would cease to apply.rcs1000 said:
I think there's a very real risk that the Labour Party will not support the government on this - even the pro EU MPs. Why? Because they want power, and they want to embarrass the government. Putting my cynical hat on, a government defeat, followed by a chaotic exit from the EU (with no transition) would not be good for Sterling or the British economy.HYUFD said:
Apparently Mogg has 100 Tory MPs behind him to vote to end free movement and leave the single market on 31st March 2019 as soon as Brexit is completed. However May should still be able to get the 2 year transition period through, though she will probably have to rely on Labour, LD and SNP votes to do sowilliamglenn said:Opposition to a transition deal from Jacob Rees-Mogg.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/954831169010495489
A recession is the best chance for Labour to get elected.0 -
Well if Labour wants to take over the government of a Britain out of the EU, out of the single market and with no transition period nor FTA yet agreed, which is what would happen if they voted down the transition period and they got in as there would almost certainly be a general election, then be my guest. May would almost certainly go shortly after and PM Corbyn, leading a likely weak government without a working majority would be facing a vocal Tory opposition led by Boris or Rees-Mogg. However while Corbyn and McDonnell would join Rees Mogg in voting down a transition I highly doubt the likes of Umunna would, they want the transition to be permanent, no transition at all is the last thing they want!rcs1000 said:
I think there's a very real risk that the Labour Party will not support the government on this - even the pro EU MPs. Why? Because they want power, and they want to embarrass the government. Putting my cynical hat on, a government defeat, followed by a chaotic exit from the EU (with no transition) would not be good for Sterling or the British economy.HYUFD said:
Apparently Mogg has 100 Tory MPs behind him to vote to end free movement and leave the single market on 31st March 2019 as soon as Brexit is completed. However May should still be able to get the 2 year transition period through, though she will probably have to rely on Labour, LD and SNP votes to do sowilliamglenn said:Opposition to a transition deal from Jacob Rees-Mogg.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/954831169010495489
A recession is the best chance for Labour to get elected.0 -
Jared O'Mara DID vote in the Division on 3rd Reading of the EU Withdrawal Bill last Wednesday.NickPalmer said:
Yes, that's what I've thought too. The near-absence of press stories about his absence might also hint at that - the press do try to be relatively decent if a well-known figure is actually ill and nothing crucial is at stake. But he did say a couple of days ago that he was returning to work.Foxy said:
As he is suspended from the party, would that count as a deselection?
But I agree, he is likely to be replaced, though his quietness does make me wonder if he is well.0 -
Remainers want to remain shock.williamglenn said:CBI calls for UK to stay in the customs union and abandon having its own trade deals
https://www.ft.com/content/dc735ad4-fd3a-11e7-a492-2c9be7f3120a0 -
All sounds very very far fetched to me.rcs1000 said:
I think there's a very real risk that the Labour Party will not support the government on this - even the pro EU MPs. Why? Because they want power, and they want to embarrass the government. Putting my cynical hat on, a government defeat, followed by a chaotic exit from the EU (with no transition) would not be good for Sterling or the British economy.HYUFD said:
Apparently Mogg has 100 Tory MPs behind him to vote to end free movement and leave the single market on 31st March 2019 as soon as Brexit is completed. However May should still be able to get the 2 year transition period through, though she will probably have to rely on Labour, LD and SNP votes to do sowilliamglenn said:Opposition to a transition deal from Jacob Rees-Mogg.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/954831169010495489
A recession is the best chance for Labour to get elected.
IF JRM has support of 100 MPs he should stand for leader.
Corbyn doesn’t want a no deal Brexit - I doubt anyone in the Labour Party does. Corbyn would never be able to get a united Labour Party behind him on this issue - and Labour would rightly be blamed for the ensuing chaos.
Labour’s best bet and most likely strategy would be to secure concessions from the govt on issues they care about.0 -
The more distance you have from the UK, the more inevitable an exit from Brexit starts to look.RobD said:
Remainers want to remain shock.williamglenn said:CBI calls for UK to stay in the customs union and abandon having its own trade deals
https://www.ft.com/content/dc735ad4-fd3a-11e7-a492-2c9be7f3120a
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/20/why-britain-is-pondering-an-exit-from-brexit.html0 -
It's surely inconceivable that 100 Con MPs would vote against the Government on an absolutely decisive vote (ie 2nd or 3rd Reading; not an amendment) on a Bill to implement actually leaving the EU.
There may well be a significant number of rebels as we saw before Christmas on an amendment (though I can't imagine as many as 100 rebels) though surely not on an actually substantive Bill - where defeat would kill the Bill.
For comparison, there were zero Con rebels at 3rd Reading of the EU Withdrawal Bill on Wednesday - despite the huge variation in opinions on Brexit.0 -
Nothing in that article suggests it is inevitable, or that it is indeed going to happen at all.williamglenn said:
The more distance you have from the UK, the more inevitable an exit from Brexit starts to look.RobD said:
Remainers want to remain shock.williamglenn said:CBI calls for UK to stay in the customs union and abandon having its own trade deals
https://www.ft.com/content/dc735ad4-fd3a-11e7-a492-2c9be7f3120a
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/20/why-britain-is-pondering-an-exit-from-brexit.html0 -
More to the point nothing suggests that we are powering ahead with Global Britain and taking advantage of unshackling ourselves from the failing EU. Brexit was sold as going 'out and into the world'. It hasn't worked.RobD said:
Nothing in that article suggests it is inevitable, or that it is indeed going to happen at all.williamglenn said:
The more distance you have from the UK, the more inevitable an exit from Brexit starts to look.RobD said:
Remainers want to remain shock.williamglenn said:CBI calls for UK to stay in the customs union and abandon having its own trade deals
https://www.ft.com/content/dc735ad4-fd3a-11e7-a492-2c9be7f3120a
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/20/why-britain-is-pondering-an-exit-from-brexit.html0 -
Completely agree - I think people are getting a bit carried away here.MikeL said:It's surely inconceivable that 100 Con MPs would vote against the Government on an absolutely decisive vote (ie 2nd or 3rd Reading; not an amendment) on a Bill to implement actually leaving the EU.
There may well be a significant number of rebels as we saw before Christmas on an amendment (though I can't imagine as many as 100 rebels) though surely not on an actually substantive Bill - where defeat would kill the Bill.
For comparison, there were zero Con rebels at 3rd Reading of the EU Withdrawal Bill on Wednesday - despite the huge variation in opinions on Brexit.
If they existed - thise 100 MPs could easily start a leadership challenge and probably overthrow TM.0 -
Anti-Brexit rally in Canterbury yesterday - http://www.kentonline.co.uk/canterbury/news/anti-brexit-protest-takes-to-the-158825/
@CarlottaVance - You'll notice there's no sign of Blair, Clegg or Adonis.0 -
Well we haven't left yet.....williamglenn said:
More to the point nothing suggests that we are powering ahead with Global Britain and taking advantage of unshackling ourselves from the failing EU. Brexit was sold as going 'out and into the world'. It hasn't worked.RobD said:
Nothing in that article suggests it is inevitable, or that it is indeed going to happen at all.williamglenn said:
The more distance you have from the UK, the more inevitable an exit from Brexit starts to look.RobD said:
Remainers want to remain shock.williamglenn said:CBI calls for UK to stay in the customs union and abandon having its own trade deals
https://www.ft.com/content/dc735ad4-fd3a-11e7-a492-2c9be7f3120a
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/20/why-britain-is-pondering-an-exit-from-brexit.html0 -
When the Berlin Wall fell, Germany hadn't been reunited yet but that was still the defining event. Brexit just isn't setting the world alight.RobD said:
Well we haven't left yet.....williamglenn said:
More to the point nothing suggests that we are powering ahead with Global Britain and taking advantage of unshackling ourselves from the failing EU. Brexit was sold as going 'out and into the world'. It hasn't worked.RobD said:
Nothing in that article suggests it is inevitable, or that it is indeed going to happen at all.williamglenn said:
The more distance you have from the UK, the more inevitable an exit from Brexit starts to look.RobD said:
Remainers want to remain shock.williamglenn said:CBI calls for UK to stay in the customs union and abandon having its own trade deals
https://www.ft.com/content/dc735ad4-fd3a-11e7-a492-2c9be7f3120a
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/20/why-britain-is-pondering-an-exit-from-brexit.html0 -
It doesn't have to set the world alight, although I do like the analogy of breaking free from a much-maligned union.williamglenn said:
When the Berlin Wall fell, Germany hadn't been reunited yet but that was still the defining event. Brexit just isn't setting the world alight.RobD said:
Well we haven't left yet.....williamglenn said:
More to the point nothing suggests that we are powering ahead with Global Britain and taking advantage of unshackling ourselves from the failing EU. Brexit was sold as going 'out and into the world'. It hasn't worked.RobD said:
Nothing in that article suggests it is inevitable, or that it is indeed going to happen at all.williamglenn said:
The more distance you have from the UK, the more inevitable an exit from Brexit starts to look.RobD said:
Remainers want to remain shock.williamglenn said:CBI calls for UK to stay in the customs union and abandon having its own trade deals
https://www.ft.com/content/dc735ad4-fd3a-11e7-a492-2c9be7f3120a
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/20/why-britain-is-pondering-an-exit-from-brexit.html
0
