politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time since August the YouGov Brexit tracker has
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time since August the YouGov Brexit tracker has referendum “right” in the lead
Ask PB regulars will know I make a point of reporting the YouGov Brexit tracker which is the one that has the most data points and for which we have a detailed records going back right to the referendum.
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The extreme Remainers are their own worst enemy by continuously leaping to the most extreme scenarios meaning that when that doesn't come true it undermines them.
Jan 16-17 (Female) - Comparison with Jan 7-8
Right: 44% (-4)
Wrong: 42% (+5)
For me I was still a child when we had Black Wednesday, those even older have lived through all the projections of doom and gloom if we left the ERM. Of course those projections were wrong then.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Fool me three times ... ?
The youngest voters of today were not just children when these earlier projections came a cropper, they weren't even born then. Brexit to them is unimaginable in the same way as when I was 18 (year 2000) I couldn't believe that the UK wasn't going to join the Euro one day.
In the City, people are realising that they won’t lose their jobs/have to move to an undistinguished town in Europe. In tech, nowhere in Europe is remotely near rivalling London.
It would be rather amusing if this shift has been driven by speculation about a second referendum.
https://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2011-07/china-opens-worlds-longest-sea-bridge-toppling-american-record-holder
That China can do that not in their busiest region but the very notion of us linking with France is a joke to people shows precisely what is wrong with this country.
JFDI - Just F***ing Do It.
My pre-EUref concerns were twofold: whether the economy was strong enough to withstand the various Brexit related shocks (jury still out on that one, but it’s been fine so far) and whether we had the calibration of political leadership to execute well. That’s clearly still a worry.
As usual, believe the opposite of what politicians tell you......and you won't be far from the truth.
Having spent the last 12 months seeking punishment of the UK and it's temerity to have a democratic vote it is attempting a new strategy of pleading to stay which is going to fail as there is no scenario that will produce a change of mind or a second referendum before 29th March 2019
Right: 44% (+4)
Wrong: 42% (-5)
That doesn't mean the Government shouldn't try harder to broaden its tent.
If you've got a lot of resources and don't give a toss about due process, you can get a lot done - quickly.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/954409789152514049
Obviously I don't mean that.
I don't really ever want another referendum, and certainly not on an issue that has any nuance to it. If the result can't immediately be enacted in law then it's a bad idea.
I don't think there is any way Brexit is going to reduce migration enough for it to be noticeable. I think there is a very good chance it will actually go up.
https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A9mSs3YJS2JazCwAxAtB4iA5;_ylu=X3oDMTBydWZibG83BGNvbG8DaXIyBHBvcwM4BHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--/RV=2/RE=1516419977/RO=10/RU=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42178038/RK=2/RS=B1GAU8RHRnyjUmGIpf1JvV3H.Fw-
However, the key thing is to make up for Blair's failure to follow most EU nations and impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries from 2004 to 2011
I think that Gove's disapproval and quite astonishing ineptitude is just about wearing off.
Boris is a mixed bag, but a very capable one. With all the risks it entails I'd like to see him as PM.
Even as FS he is a liability. Indeed he fully merits an extra F.
However that's not the issue here. There's nobody living in the Channel whose homes would have cars going above them (LHR objections) or demolished along the route.
If we can't do progress we won't get anything done. If we can't even consider grand projects without laughing them out then we've really fallen a long way.
Victorian Britain with today's technology could have got this done.
China have built a load of new cities with airports, but you can’t fly to London from them because there’s no slots at our end. So they fly to Germany and Holland instead.
There are probably about 400,000 more immigrants in the UK now than there was before the Referendum.
Net migration is still higher than it was almost every year before now. Suggesting that net migration now is low because its off its peak is like saying global temperatures are lower now so global warming is a fraud.
Boris Island was the right idea.
All the talk of Boris Island has done is delayed the LHR expansion. We should have had runways 3 and 4 built by now.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42743829
Whoever thought that could possibly end well? Morons.
I think there is something rather symbolic about the inability to build a 3rd Heathrow runway. Blaming NIMBYism is to miss the point. We live in a democracy. The real issue is how can it be that the (understandable) objections of a few hundred thousand people outweigh the interests of 60 million? Ultimately because the locals really care and the rest of Britain doesn't give a stuff. It makes no sense to sacrifice a bunch of SW marginals in the hope of wooing Nuneatons because the Nuneatons don't care about 'global Britain' which is nothing more than a daydream of political and corporate minds. They care about their families their standard of living and being able to get cheap flights to their favourite holiday destinations. It makes me laugh when some Bexiteers think leaving the EU will allow us to unleash global Britain which has apparently been shackled by the EU. Want Global Britain? Start having a conversation with your own population.
Obviously we dont know what the polls will be in 12 months time, but Labour should be doing considerably better right now and the Tories considerably worse. Yet Labour is only 1 point ahead, and occasionally not ahead at all.
If Labour is not 15 points ahead this time next year, indeed if Labour is only 1 point ahead in January 2015, that suggests not that Labour will win seats, but given the likely recovery of the government up to 2022 with a new leader, and better campaign, it would suggest that Labour will lose seats. It is a big big mistake to assume that an opposition will do at the general election as well as it does in polls. Ask Ed Miliband, Neil Kinnock, David Cameron, Edward Heath, Harold Wilson................
My problem with LHR is its taking this long just for 3 with little to no real talk of 4. How long is it going to take to get 4 done if we can't even get 3 done. Boris Island at least would get 4 immediately.
But yes if you can get LHR 4 then again JFDI.
There is more hope for the Japanese system, which is much more complex than the German system and less flexible. Perversely, it may end up being a better system. But it is still basically a test system.
Your 'partially evacuated tunnels' sounds rather like Hyperloop. People on here already know my feelings on that.
Fly from Luton these days and you'll quickly find that 90% of the flights are cheapo £10 Ryanair type flights to Latvia, Poland etc. Same with a fair proportion of Stansted and at least some of Gatwick. Why don't we significantly increase landing fees to reduce the low cost carriers' dominance and that would provide some useful space for extra long-haul services to China etc.
If people want to go on a £10 flight to Riga then they can do it from East Midlands or Doncaster or somewhere else less crowded.
Heathrow 3rd runway will be a disaster. The M25 is already a car park almost the entire daylight hours.
I think the circle is best squared by really generous (but compulsory) comensation for people who have to move in what is seen as the national interest. For the cost of a big LHR expansion, I imagine they could compensate every actually displaced resident by 200% of their house values (or 10 years' rent for tenants) without changing the overall cost significantly. Residents further away who don't much like the noise of planes overhead are less likely to feel that strongly and could be partly assuaged with flight path tinkering. The trouble is that the lobbies have fought each other to a standstill so few people even in politics are really sure what the best course of action is.
Forgive me for bringing up your earlier dispute with Cyclefree re. whether Labour is anti-Semitic.
However, I wondered if you had read this about Momentum, and indeed whether you agreed with it;
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2018/01/17/we-need-to-talk-about-momentum-and-anti-semitism/
Disclaimer - I have known a great many very left wing members of Labour on a personal basis and I do not know of one who has been antisemitic. However, I also used to be an academic many moons ago and after working professionally with UCU I am shall we say wary of some of the more interesting tropes on Israel and what they hide. Jenna Delich springs to mind.
After the last two weeks I would not have been surprised!
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/srb6u4hbl6/TimesResults_180117_VI_Trackers.pdf
It thus seems almost all Labour and Tory voters consider the other party untouchable but some ardent Remainer Labour voters will consider the LDs and some ardent Leaver Tories will consider UKIP while any voters the two main parties do gain tend to come from the LDs.
However if 2015 and 2017 show anything it's that any suggestion that UKIP=Tory on holiday is to put it mildly rather simplistic.
Reality is, it's a good time to call for an improvement because Brexit makes it very difficult to justify a leadership contest before next March, so it has credibility at face value.
No point.
Given what must by definition be a very small sub sample the change in the LD vote share from 9 to 7 is as meaningful as the shift from 7 to 9 was in the previous poll. The Party's becalmed but those trying to read huge cosmic significance into a tiny sample have clearly got nothing better to do with their lives.
Likewise obsessing over the 3% UKIP share isn't worth it.
At the moment we have two blocs, one made up of 70% LEAVE and 30% REMAIN and the other make up of 70% LEAVE and 30% REMAIN. Each considers the other the worst possible Government possible for the country and will do what they can to prevent it.
Until that dynamic changes and Labour is no longer seen as a bunch of anti-Semitic malcontents led by a geriatric senile Marxist and the Conservatives are no longer seen as a pack of baby-eating, granny-selling incompetents led by a woman with all the charm and charisma of an iceberg off the northern coast of Greenland I suspect we'll see little change.
The cable has lost its spark.
The cable is frayed.
The cable is no longer current.
Etc...
The way politics are it is equally possible Corbyn's hard left could be in the low thirties.
The truth is none of us have a clue
The Labour share is also a mixed bag but I'm guessing not much of it is available to the Tories. There is a lump of about 50% which is permanently anti-Tory shared between Labour, LibDem and Green - mainly Labour at the moment.