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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Never forget that the vast majority of those who voted for Trump are happy with their President
A recent YouGov/The Economist survey found almost 90% of Trump voters think the President is doing a good overall job #BBCPanorama pic.twitter.com/W0USzmEeWN
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Non voters turn out in 2020?0
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May faces tougher transition stance from EU amid Norway pressure
Exclusive: Norwegian officials tell Brussels they may seek radical rethink of their terms if UK has to single market for key sectors
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/norway-may-rip-up-eu-deal-over-uk-brexit-demands?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
Got to say I never understood why so many thought he wouldn't survive the term. Sure there is the Russia stuff but the impeachment process is difficult.
Far more likely he doesn't seek a 2nd term for whatever reason or loses to Biden (hopefully)
Lord knows who the Dem nominee will be though0 -
Yup. And the way in which wages are rising for blue collar workers, he might well win over converts in the right places...0
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It is however worth remembering that a lot of people voted 3rd party last time in 'a plague on both their houses' kind of way. His own voters might not be enough.0
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Highly likely. Trump needs to attract new voters as well as keeping the old ones onside if he is to be re-elected. His victory margin was small. He is motivating his opponents at the moment, as in Virginia, Alabama, etc..TheScreamingEagles said:Non voters turn out in 2020?
As ever, the economy will be crucial.0 -
Trump opponents play into his hands.
Americans, especially his supporters, are very patriotic and think their nation is the best in the world.
In calling places like Haiti a shithole Trump simply said what many people think. In his opponents getting outraged at that they basically said to those voters that what they think is unacceptable. That's not going to win over hearts and minds.0 -
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Why is Boris giving an interview to the Guardian?Scott_P said:
Interesting he thinks drawing attention to the bus claim is a good idea....0 -
@joncstone: EU demands veto over British trade deals with other countries for two years after Brexit http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-trade-deals-liam-fox-two-years-veto-michel-barnier-negotiating-guidelines-a8160996.html0
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They want Hard Brexit, don't they?Scott_P said:@joncstone: EU demands veto over British trade deals with other countries for two years after Brexit http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-trade-deals-liam-fox-two-years-veto-michel-barnier-negotiating-guidelines-a8160996.html
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Transition negotiations being discussed. This is an excellent sign for the direction of travel.Scott_P said:@joncstone: EU demands veto over British trade deals with other countries for two years after Brexit http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-trade-deals-liam-fox-two-years-veto-michel-barnier-negotiating-guidelines-a8160996.html
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Trump polls better thsn the Republican Party as a whole, as Niall Ferguson said in an article yesterday he could be a Republican Bill Clinton ie his party loses Congress but he is still re elected then faces impeachmemt proceedings. Bill Clinton also failed to get healthcare reform through in his first two years, did get tax reform through and faced accusations of Chinese interference and the Vince Foster affair as well as a colourful private life0
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They want to have their cake and eat it.SandyRentool said:
They want Hard Brexit, don't they?Scott_P said:@joncstone: EU demands veto over British trade deals with other countries for two years after Brexit http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-trade-deals-liam-fox-two-years-veto-michel-barnier-negotiating-guidelines-a8160996.html
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One might also say they wish to administer a punishment beating and have us thank them for it.TheScreamingEagles said:
They want to have their cake and eat it.SandyRentool said:
They want Hard Brexit, don't they?Scott_P said:@joncstone: EU demands veto over British trade deals with other countries for two years after Brexit http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-trade-deals-liam-fox-two-years-veto-michel-barnier-negotiating-guidelines-a8160996.html
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Have the Dems learnt anything from their defeat?
As much as Trump is the Dark Side of the American Soul, nothing pisses me off more than assorted luvvies like Hanks and Streep -- who sucked up to the likes of Weinstein for decades -- suddenly piping up with cries of “Oprah for Pres”.0 -
During Transition we are in the Single Market, so governed by EU rules.Nigelb said:
One might also say they wish to administer a punishment beating and have us thank them for it.TheScreamingEagles said:
They want to have their cake and eat it.SandyRentool said:
They want Hard Brexit, don't they?Scott_P said:@joncstone: EU demands veto over British trade deals with other countries for two years after Brexit http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-trade-deals-liam-fox-two-years-veto-michel-barnier-negotiating-guidelines-a8160996.html
I am surprised that anyone is surprised at the EU wanting a say.0 -
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Good article from Rafael Behr.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/15/brexit-britain-third-country-eu-uk
That is the founding fable of Brexit, propagated by Eurosceptic journalists and politicians for years. At its core is the fallacy of “Europe” as something distinct from the UK; an extrinsic force over there, doing wicked things over here. In truth, Europe was part-British, as it was part-French and part-German. UK prime ministers wielded their share of the power that newspapers back home called “Brussels”. As a political entity and as a bureaucracy, Brussels was never just them. It was also us. A tragic irony of Brexit is that it risks turning our relationship with the EU into the unbalanced thing it was falsely said to be.0 -
My comment referred to the details in this article, which I'd mistakenly assumed TSE's comment was also referring to:Foxy said:
During Transition we are in the Single Market, so governed by EU rules.Nigelb said:
One might also say they wish to administer a punishment beating and have us thank them for it.TheScreamingEagles said:
They want to have their cake and eat it.SandyRentool said:
They want Hard Brexit, don't they?Scott_P said:@joncstone: EU demands veto over British trade deals with other countries for two years after Brexit http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-trade-deals-liam-fox-two-years-veto-michel-barnier-negotiating-guidelines-a8160996.html
I am surprised that anyone is surprised at the EU wanting a say.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/norway-may-rip-up-eu-deal-over-uk-brexit-demands?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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I have decided to take the pragmatic approach to Brexit and generally ignore posts from either Remainers or Brexiteers that attempt to convince themselves and others of the righteousness of their cause and accept that a deal of some sort will be done and constant speculation about the outcome is a waste of effort that can be put to better useNigelb said:
My comment referred to the details in this article, which I'd mistakenly assumed TSE's comment was also referring to:Foxy said:
During Transition we are in the Single Market, so governed by EU rules.Nigelb said:
One might also say they wish to administer a punishment beating and have us thank them for it.TheScreamingEagles said:
They want to have their cake and eat it.SandyRentool said:
They want Hard Brexit, don't they?Scott_P said:@joncstone: EU demands veto over British trade deals with other countries for two years after Brexit http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-trade-deals-liam-fox-two-years-veto-michel-barnier-negotiating-guidelines-a8160996.html
I am surprised that anyone is surprised at the EU wanting a say.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/norway-may-rip-up-eu-deal-over-uk-brexit-demands?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
Well maybe as the first Democratic Primary poll after the Golden Globes has Oprah third behind Biden and Sanders, albeit just ahead of WarrenYBarddCwsc said:Have the Dems learnt anything from their defeat?
As much as Trump is the Dark Side of the American Soul, nothing pisses me off more than assorted luvvies like Hanks and Streep -- who sucked up to the likes of Weinstein for decades -- suddenly piping up with cries of “Oprah for Pres”.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/joe-biden-oprah-winfrey-democratic-candidates-2020-us-election-white-house-poll-a8154991.html0 -
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@matt_dathan: Speaking on the @FS_pingpongguy podcast Freddie Flintoff reveals he applied to be England head coach in 2014 -but withdrew for Peter Moores0
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You’ve put the front page up to highlight the article on East European Slaves as one of the many blessings the EU has given us, right?Scott_P said:0 -
Moderate Labour MPs threaten to quit the party and sit as independents if branches of Momentum carry out their threat to deselect themScott_P said:0 -
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If that is true and happens, which I doubt, labour will be out of power for yearsScott_P said:0 -
Or Umunna sets up a UK En MarcheBig_G_NorthWales said:
If that is true and happens, which I doubt, labour will be out of power for yearsScott_P said:0 -
Momentum are going to overplay their hand.Scott_P said:
Some of these MPs will indeed leave Labour.
Labour then become seen as the party of splits and disunity. Lose a chunk of support.
And as Labour sees it will lose the next election too, all Hell lets loose....0 -
But that will not be labour - SDP 2 more likelyHYUFD said:
Or Umunna sets up a UK En MarcheBig_G_NorthWales said:
If that is true and happens, which I doubt, labour will be out of power for yearsScott_P said:0 -
Why do we never hear from Henry G Manson much anymore ?
I think, as a Labour party insider, his insights were really good.0 -
Don't forget the SDP led the polls for a time after they were formedBig_G_NorthWales said:
But that will not be labour - SDP 2 more likelyHYUFD said:
Or Umunna sets up a UK En MarcheBig_G_NorthWales said:
If that is true and happens, which I doubt, labour will be out of power for yearsScott_P said:0 -
Their sense of Entitlement is staggering.Scott_P said:0 -
They're elected to represent their constituents. In my mind the Momentum sense of entitlement is staggering. Hard left takeover of the party is against the interests of voters...bigjohnowls said:
Their sense of Entitlement is staggering.Scott_P said:0 -
"Comrades, this is your Leader. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our Party's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party. For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Attlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Glorious 2018 National Executive Committee Election Victory. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!Big_G_NorthWales said:
If that is true and happens, which I doubt, labour will be out of power for yearsScott_P said:
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party doesn't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Brighton, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!
"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"0 -
The SPD appears to be losing support to Die Linke in new poll from INSA:
CDU/CSU 31.5%
SPD 18.5%
AfD 14.0%
Linke 11.5%
Greens 10.0%
FDP 9.5%
Others 5.0%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/0 -
Both the populist right and left benefiting from the prospect of another Grand CoalitionAndyJS said:The SPD appears to be losing support to Die Linke in new poll from INSA:
CDU/CSU 31.5%
SPD 18.5%
AfD 14.0%
Linke 11.5%
Greens 10.0%
FDP 9.5%
Others 5.0%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/0 -
If it happened and I doubt the courage of the rebels but for Corbyn it would be 'panic'bigjohnowls said:
170 odd Labour MP 's rebelled against Corbyn previously and even if 100 formed their own group it would deal a fatal blow to him0 -
Germany still looking in an almost ungovernable position...AndyJS said:The SPD appears to be losing support to Die Linke in new poll from INSA:
CDU/CSU 31.5%
SPD 18.5%
AfD 14.0%
Linke 11.5%
Greens 10.0%
FDP 9.5%
Others 5.0%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/0 -
Momentum won't overplay their hand, they are playing it perfectly. The MPs won't carry out their threat to leave and stand as independents. They have been 100% spineless, indeed complicit, in allowing the extremists to take over their party, and they're not going to change. Either they'll stay and keep their heads down, or they'll just drift off to more lucrative jobs with the BBC or a quango.MarqueeMark said:
Momentum are going to overplay their hand.Scott_P said:
Some of these MPs will indeed leave Labour.
Labour then become seen as the party of splits and disunity. Lose a chunk of support.
And as Labour sees it will lose the next election too, all Hell lets loose....
Regarding the exchanges on the previous thread about the Conservatives crying wolf over Corbyn, and this being (as Nick P argued) counterproductive, I think it's confusing two points. In grown-up discussion here, and in private, we can tell the truth about the potential disaster the country would be walking into if (God forbid) it did allow Corbyn or his henchmen into government. However, that doesn't mean that the Conservatives should simply use that truth as a campaign message. The message needs to be simple, direct, and relevant to voters' personal circumstances. So, not 'exchange controls would wreck the City' (true and worrying though that is), but 'Corbyn's tax bombshell'.0 -
+1Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Comrades, this is your Leader. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our Party's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party. For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Attlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Glorious 2018 National Executive Committee Election Victory. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!Big_G_NorthWales said:
If that is true and happens, which I doubt, labour will be out of power for yearsScott_P said:
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party doesn't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Brighton, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!
"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"0 -
The core fallacy he identifies was identified and written about by me in June 2016. See here in the very first line - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/18/britains-original-sins/.williamglenn said:Good article from Rafael Behr.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/15/brexit-britain-third-country-eu-uk
That is the founding fable of Brexit, propagated by Eurosceptic journalists and politicians for years. At its core is the fallacy of “Europe” as something distinct from the UK; an extrinsic force over there, doing wicked things over here. In truth, Europe was part-British, as it was part-French and part-German. UK prime ministers wielded their share of the power that newspapers back home called “Brussels”. As a political entity and as a bureaucracy, Brussels was never just them. It was also us. A tragic irony of Brexit is that it risks turning our relationship with the EU into the unbalanced thing it was falsely said to be.
Still, it’s the Guardian. What can you expect.
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Not sure it would. He could well sail on to his destiny with the backing of the NEC and the arcane essential of the left, the rule book.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it happened and I doubt the courage of the rebels but for Corbyn it would be 'panic'bigjohnowls said:
170 odd Labour MP 's rebelled against Corbyn previously and even if 100 formed their own group it would deal a fatal blow to him0 -
Rebelling against Corbyn the loser and giving up the job for life they think they are entitled to are 2 different things entirelyBig_G_NorthWales said:
If it happened and I doubt the courage of the rebels but for Corbyn it would be 'panic'bigjohnowls said:
170 odd Labour MP 's rebelled against Corbyn previously and even if 100 formed their own group it would deal a fatal blow to him0 -
If you are SPD are you really going to be a turkey voting for xmas???Mortimer said:
Germany still looking in an almost ungovernable position...AndyJS said:The SPD appears to be losing support to Die Linke in new poll from INSA:
CDU/CSU 31.5%
SPD 18.5%
AfD 14.0%
Linke 11.5%
Greens 10.0%
FDP 9.5%
Others 5.0%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/0 -
I agree it seems unlikely but so did Brexit and Trump.philiph said:
Not sure it would. He could well sail on to his destiny with the backing of the NEC and the arcane essential of the left, the rule book.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it happened and I doubt the courage of the rebels but for Corbyn it would be 'panic'bigjohnowls said:
170 odd Labour MP 's rebelled against Corbyn previously and even if 100 formed their own group it would deal a fatal blow to him
If a real split developed in labour it would have the media all over it and the rule is voters do not elect a divided party0 -
Thry’ll huff and puff. Then do precisely nothing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If that is true and happens, which I doubt, labour will be out of power for yearsScott_P said:0 -
People don't seem to realise that Trump's 'stable genius' comment is actually rather witty. 'Are you mad?' 'No, I'm a *stable* genius'. Quite good. And I think people aren't getting it because in their minds, coming from Trump its just two stupid words uttered almost at random.0
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As I have said it seems unlikely but who knows and it is not totally impossiblebigjohnowls said:
Rebelling against Corbyn the loser and giving up the job for life they think they are entitled to are 2 different things entirelyBig_G_NorthWales said:
If it happened and I doubt the courage of the rebels but for Corbyn it would be 'panic'bigjohnowls said:
170 odd Labour MP 's rebelled against Corbyn previously and even if 100 formed their own group it would deal a fatal blow to him0 -
They are having a conference this weekend to decide whether they continue negotiations.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If you are SPD are you really going to be a turkey voting for xmas???Mortimer said:
Germany still looking in an almost ungovernable position...AndyJS said:The SPD appears to be losing support to Die Linke in new poll from INSA:
CDU/CSU 31.5%
SPD 18.5%
AfD 14.0%
Linke 11.5%
Greens 10.0%
FDP 9.5%
Others 5.0%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Commentators think it is touch and go0 -
Oh dear Trump's not getting an invite now.
(From 2013)
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/3043131808076308490 -
ProbablyCyclefree said:
Thry’ll huff and puff. Then do precisely nothing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If that is true and happens, which I doubt, labour will be out of power for yearsScott_P said:0 -
The only question is what is his destiny?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I agree it seems unlikely but so did Brexit and Trump.philiph said:
Not sure it would. He could well sail on to his destiny with the backing of the NEC and the arcane essential of the left, the rule book.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it happened and I doubt the courage of the rebels but for Corbyn it would be 'panic'bigjohnowls said:
170 odd Labour MP 's rebelled against Corbyn previously and even if 100 formed their own group it would deal a fatal blow to him
If a real split developed in labour it would have the media all over it and the rule is voters do not elect a divided party
PM or electoral failure and party splitter?0 -
Liam Neeson age 65 playing Liam Neeson age 60 in the Commuter
I enjoyed it but how many more identical films can he make0 -
Your penultimate line is true. You’ve said it many times. So have I. So have others.Richard_Nabavi said:
Momentum won't overplay their hand, they are playing it perfectly. The MPs won't carry out their threat to leave and stand as independents. They have been 100% spineless, indeed complicit, in allowing the extremists to take over their party, and they're not going to change. Either they'll stay and keep their heads down, or they'll just drift off to more lucrative jobs with the BBC or a quango.MarqueeMark said:
Momentum are going to overplay their hand.Scott_P said:
Some of these MPs will indeed leave Labour.
Labour then become seen as the party of splits and disunity. Lose a chunk of support.
And as Labour sees it will lose the next election too, all Hell lets loose....
Regarding the exchanges on the previous thread about the Conservatives crying wolf over Corbyn, and this being (as Nick P argued) counterproductive, I think it's confusing two points. In grown-up discussion here, and in private, we can tell the truth about the potential disaster the country would be walking into if (God forbid) it did allow Corbyn or his henchmen into government. However, that doesn't mean that the Conservatives should simply use that truth as a campaign message. The message needs to be simple, direct, and relevant to voters' personal circumstances. So, not 'exchange controls would wreck the City' (true and worrying though that is), but 'Corbyn's tax bombshell'.
And yet the Tories seem to be oblivious. Indeed, if recent reports are to be believed, they seem intent on reusing at the next election the “Corbyn is a threat to national security” line which bombed (excuse the pun) so badly last time.
They are so utterly useless, so seemingly bereft of the most basic political tradecraft - Corbyn is doing better on this every day - that I would cheerfully vote them out of office tomorrow, were it not for the prospect of having Corbyn as PM.0 -
You mean Labour were seen as the party of unity at the last election when their share of the vote went up nearly 10%?MarqueeMark said:
Momentum are going to overplay their hand.Scott_P said:
Some of these MPs will indeed leave Labour.
Labour then become seen as the party of splits and disunity. Lose a chunk of support.
And as Labour sees it will lose the next election too, all Hell lets loose....0 -
And if it doesn't work out would there be another election or a minority Merkel government?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are having a conference this weekend to decide whether they continue negotiations.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If you are SPD are you really going to be a turkey voting for xmas???Mortimer said:
Germany still looking in an almost ungovernable position...AndyJS said:The SPD appears to be losing support to Die Linke in new poll from INSA:
CDU/CSU 31.5%
SPD 18.5%
AfD 14.0%
Linke 11.5%
Greens 10.0%
FDP 9.5%
Others 5.0%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Commentators think it is touch and go0 -
Has Trump looked in a mirror recently?TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear Trump's not getting an invite now.
(From 2013)
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/3043131808076308490 -
They thought it would be a snap electionAndyJS said:
And if it doesn't work out would there be another election or a minority Merkel government?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are having a conference this weekend to decide whether they continue negotiations.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If you are SPD are you really going to be a turkey voting for xmas???Mortimer said:
Germany still looking in an almost ungovernable position...AndyJS said:The SPD appears to be losing support to Die Linke in new poll from INSA:
CDU/CSU 31.5%
SPD 18.5%
AfD 14.0%
Linke 11.5%
Greens 10.0%
FDP 9.5%
Others 5.0%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Commentators think it is touch and go0 -
Those in the SPD who favour the deal say the other option is elections.AndyJS said:
And if it doesn't work out would there be another election or a minority Merkel government?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are having a conference this weekend to decide whether they continue negotiations.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If you are SPD are you really going to be a turkey voting for xmas???Mortimer said:
Germany still looking in an almost ungovernable position...AndyJS said:The SPD appears to be losing support to Die Linke in new poll from INSA:
CDU/CSU 31.5%
SPD 18.5%
AfD 14.0%
Linke 11.5%
Greens 10.0%
FDP 9.5%
Others 5.0%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Commentators think it is touch and go
I think it might actually be Merkel resigning followed by a period of further caretaker government and then elections0 -
I don't think they are oblivious. I certainly hope not. Certainly at the grassroots level the entire party was gobsmacked by the incompetence of the GE2017 campaign: we kept waiting for the attacks on Corbyn's policies, phrased in simple terms relevant to voters, to start, and they never came.Cyclefree said:Your penultimate line is true. You’ve said it many times. So have I. So have others.
And yet the Tories seem to be oblivious. Indeed, if recent reports are to be believed, they seem intent on reusing at the next election the “Corbyn is a threat to national security” line which bombed (excuse the pun) so badly last time.
They are so utterly useless, so seemingly bereft of the most basic political tradecraft - Corbyn is doing better on this every day - that I would cheerfully vote them out of office tomorrow, were it not for the prospect of having Corbyn as PM.
Edit: The other point is that with modern media targetting we should be able to emphasise different things to different voters. So, for example, the IRA stuff is useless for younger voters but still potent for anyone over 55 or so.0 -
Yeah. I cannot see defections, or deselections in any number. A few early retirements perhaps.TheScreamingEagles said:
You mean Labour were seen as the party of unity at the last election when their share of the vote went up nearly 10%?MarqueeMark said:
Momentum are going to overplay their hand.Scott_P said:
Some of these MPs will indeed leave Labour.
Labour then become seen as the party of splits and disunity. Lose a chunk of support.
And as Labour sees it will lose the next election too, all Hell lets loose....
Just PB Tories clutching at their pearls.0 -
And don’t you think that was as a result of incompetence?Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think they are oblivious. I certainly hope not. Certainly at the grassroots level the entire party was gobsmacked by the incompetence of the GE2017 campaign: we kept waiting for the attacks on Corbyn's policies, phrased in simple terms relevant to voters, to start, and they never came.Cyclefree said:Your penultimate line is true. You’ve said it many times. So have I. So have others.
And yet the Tories seem to be oblivious. Indeed, if recent reports are to be believed, they seem intent on reusing at the next election the “Corbyn is a threat to national security” line which bombed (excuse the pun) so badly last time.
They are so utterly useless, so seemingly bereft of the most basic political tradecraft - Corbyn is doing better on this every day - that I would cheerfully vote them out of office tomorrow, were it not for the prospect of having Corbyn as PM.
And has the government’s behaviour since the election been so competent that you think next time the election campaign will be better?0 -
"Unity" for political parties is really overrated.TheScreamingEagles said:
You mean Labour were seen as the party of unity at the last election when their share of the vote went up nearly 10%?MarqueeMark said:
Momentum are going to overplay their hand.Scott_P said:
Some of these MPs will indeed leave Labour.
Labour then become seen as the party of splits and disunity. Lose a chunk of support.
And as Labour sees it will lose the next election too, all Hell lets loose....
The Lib Dems have been the most "united" party for the last decade (think about it, there's been barely any open infighting since Sir Ming left), yet they've been losing ground in election after election during that time.0 -
Yes it was the result of incompetence, but it will be completely different people running the next campaign. And most importantly Theresa May will have no part in it.Cyclefree said:
And don’t you think that was as a result of incompetence?Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think they are oblivious. I certainly hope not. Certainly at the grassroots level the entire party was gobsmacked by the incompetence of the GE2017 campaign: we kept waiting for the attacks on Corbyn's policies, phrased in simple terms relevant to voters, to start, and they never came.Cyclefree said:Your penultimate line is true. You’ve said it many times. So have I. So have others.
And yet the Tories seem to be oblivious. Indeed, if recent reports are to be believed, they seem intent on reusing at the next election the “Corbyn is a threat to national security” line which bombed (excuse the pun) so badly last time.
They are so utterly useless, so seemingly bereft of the most basic political tradecraft - Corbyn is doing better on this every day - that I would cheerfully vote them out of office tomorrow, were it not for the prospect of having Corbyn as PM.
And has the government’s behaviour since the election been so competent that you think next time the election campaign will be better?0 -
Remember the posters of Hague with Thatcher's hairdo? You could imagine something similar with whoever the new Tory leader is as Theresa May with the caption "Nothing Has Changed".Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes it was the result of incompetence, but it will be completely different people running the next campaign. And most importantly Theresa May will have no part in it.Cyclefree said:
And don’t you think that was as a result of incompetence?Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think they are oblivious. I certainly hope not. Certainly at the grassroots level the entire party was gobsmacked by the incompetence of the GE2017 campaign: we kept waiting for the attacks on Corbyn's policies, phrased in simple terms relevant to voters, to start, and they never came.Cyclefree said:Your penultimate line is true. You’ve said it many times. So have I. So have others.
And yet the Tories seem to be oblivious. Indeed, if recent reports are to be believed, they seem intent on reusing at the next election the “Corbyn is a threat to national security” line which bombed (excuse the pun) so badly last time.
They are so utterly useless, so seemingly bereft of the most basic political tradecraft - Corbyn is doing better on this every day - that I would cheerfully vote them out of office tomorrow, were it not for the prospect of having Corbyn as PM.
And has the government’s behaviour since the election been so competent that you think next time the election campaign will be better?0 -
The IRA stuff will not counter a dementia tax or a concern for one’s children or grandchildren.Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think they are oblivious. I certainly hope not. Certainly at the grassroots level the entire party was gobsmacked by the incompetence of the GE2017 campaign: we kept waiting for the attacks on Corbyn's policies, phrased in simple terms relevant to voters, to start, and they never came.Cyclefree said:Your penultimate line is true. You’ve said it many times. So have I. So have others.
And yet the Tories seem to be oblivious. Indeed, if recent reports are to be believed, they seem intent on reusing at the next election the “Corbyn is a threat to national security” line which bombed (excuse the pun) so badly last time.
They are so utterly useless, so seemingly bereft of the most basic political tradecraft - Corbyn is doing better on this every day - that I would cheerfully vote them out of office tomorrow, were it not for the prospect of having Corbyn as PM.
Edit: The other point is that with modern media targetting we should be able to emphasise different things to different voters. So, for example, the IRA stuff is useless for younger voters but still potent for anyone over 55 or so.
I would not use it. Or do so far more subtly.0 -
What about Theresa May's recent actions makes you think she will willingly go before the next election?Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes it was the result of incompetence, but it will be completely different people running the next campaign. And most importantly Theresa May will have no part in it.Cyclefree said:
And don’t you think that was as a result of incompetence?Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think they are oblivious. I certainly hope not. Certainly at the grassroots level the entire party was gobsmacked by the incompetence of the GE2017 campaign: we kept waiting for the attacks on Corbyn's policies, phrased in simple terms relevant to voters, to start, and they never came.Cyclefree said:Your penultimate line is true. You’ve said it many times. So have I. So have others.
And yet the Tories seem to be oblivious. Indeed, if recent reports are to be believed, they seem intent on reusing at the next election the “Corbyn is a threat to national security” line which bombed (excuse the pun) so badly last time.
They are so utterly useless, so seemingly bereft of the most basic political tradecraft - Corbyn is doing better on this every day - that I would cheerfully vote them out of office tomorrow, were it not for the prospect of having Corbyn as PM.
And has the government’s behaviour since the election been so competent that you think next time the election campaign will be better?0 -
I do remember them, and they were stupid and ineffectual.williamglenn said:Remember the posters of Hague with Thatcher's hairdo? You could imagine something similar with whoever the new Tory leader is as Theresa May with the caption "Nothing Has Changed".
In any case, I was talking more about the message framing than Theresa May's personal image (dire though that was by the end of the campaign). That's the backroom stuff which was done very well in 2015 but extremely badly in 2017.0 -
Don't believe those "recent reports". The Tories have years yet to get the next election strategy right. It is a message for a post-Brexit world. Of course they aren't going to peddle it yet.Cyclefree said:
Your penultimate line is true. You’ve said it many times. So have I. So have others.
And yet the Tories seem to be oblivious. Indeed, if recent reports are to be believed, they seem intent on reusing at the next election the “Corbyn is a threat to national security” line which bombed (excuse the pun) so badly last time.
They are so utterly useless, so seemingly bereft of the most basic political tradecraft - Corbyn is doing better on this every day - that I would cheerfully vote them out of office tomorrow, were it not for the prospect of having Corbyn as PM.
By the time of that election, the Conservative Party will be in lock-step, determined more than ever before to learn form the shambles of 2017 - and prevent a Socialist experiment being tried in the UK by those economic vandals Corbyn and McDonnell.
At the top of politics, it is the Labour Party that is inherently most unstable. I'm surprised that in a time when profound change has been catching everyone on the hop, the standard expectation here is for Corbynism to still be a great force at the next election. Do people really think the Labour Party is going to remain in stasis for four years? That would be most unlike recent times.0 -
I didn't use the word 'willingly'.Danny565 said:What about Theresa May's recent actions makes you think she will willingly go before the next election?
0 -
Nick Timothy launches attack on Theresa May - https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5348662/ex-aide-nick-timothy-slams-theresa-may-lack-of-radical-reform/
THERESA May’s former chief of staff today accuses the PM and her Government of losing their bottle for radical reform.
Nick Timothy claims Mrs May has been worn down in her bid to tackle fat cat excesses by being forced to compromise with more traditional Cabinet ministers.
...
Mr Timothy - who resigned seven months ago after the general election disaster - concedes that ministers are now swamped by their huge Brexit workloads.
But he argues: “This is partly because the politics of Brexit consume so much government time."0 -
The Tory campaign was a success with voters over 50, but they need to find a message that will work with the younger half of the electorate.Cyclefree said:
Your penultimate line is true. You’ve said it many times. So have I. So have others.Richard_Nabavi said:
Momentum won't overplay their hand, they are playing it perfectly. The MPs won't carry out their threat to leave and stand as independents. They have been 100% spineless, indeed complicit, in allowing the extremists to take over their party, and they're not going to change. Either they'll stay and keep their heads down, or they'll just drift off to more lucrative jobs with the BBC or a quango.MarqueeMark said:
Momentum are going to overplay their hand.Scott_P said:
Some of these MPs will indeed leave Labour.
Labour then become seen as the party of splits and disunity. Lose a chunk of support.
And as Labour sees it will lose the next election too, all Hell lets loose....
Regarding the exchanges on the previous thread about the Conservatives crying wolf over Corbyn, and this being (as Nick P argued) counterproductive, I think it's confusing two points. In grown-up discussion here, and in private, we can tell the truth about the potential disaster the country would be walking into if (God forbid) it did allow Corbyn or his henchmen into government. However, that doesn't mean that the Conservatives should simply use that truth as a campaign message. The message needs to be simple, direct, and relevant to voters' personal circumstances. So, not 'exchange controls would wreck the City' (true and worrying though that is), but 'Corbyn's tax bombshell'.
And yet the Tories seem to be oblivious. Indeed, if recent reports are to be believed, they seem intent on reusing at the next election the “Corbyn is a threat to national security” line which bombed (excuse the pun) so badly last time.
They are so utterly useless, so seemingly bereft of the most basic political tradecraft - Corbyn is doing better on this every day - that I would cheerfully vote them out of office tomorrow, were it not for the prospect of having Corbyn as PM.0 -
This is what we were told a year ago. What happened next?MarqueeMark said:
Don't believe those "recent reports". The Tories have years yet to get the next election strategy right. It is a message for a post-Brexit world. Of course they aren't going to peddle it yet.Cyclefree said:
Your penultimate line is true. You’ve said it many times. So have I. So have others.
And yet the Tories seem to be oblivious. Indeed, if recent reports are to be believed, they seem intent on reusing at the next election the “Corbyn is a threat to national security” line which bombed (excuse the pun) so badly last time.
They are so utterly useless, so seemingly bereft of the most basic political tradecraft - Corbyn is doing better on this every day - that I would cheerfully vote them out of office tomorrow, were it not for the prospect of having Corbyn as PM.
By the time of that election, the Conservative Party will be in lock-step, determined more than ever before to learn form the shambles of 2017 - and prevent a Socialist experiment being tried in the UK by those economic vandals Corbyn and McDonnell.
At the top of politics, it is the Labour Party that is inherently most unstable. I'm surprised that in a time when profound change has been catching everyone on the hop, the standard expectation here is for Corbynism to still be a great force at the next election. Do people really think the Labour Party is going to remain in stasis for four years? That would be most unlike recent times.
Labour is more united, and the Tories courtiers are all intriguing for her crown.0 -
And they won only four more seats than Brown did in 2010? That election?TheScreamingEagles said:
You mean Labour were seen as the party of unity at the last election when their share of the vote went up nearly 10%?MarqueeMark said:
Momentum are going to overplay their hand.Scott_P said:
Some of these MPs will indeed leave Labour.
Labour then become seen as the party of splits and disunity. Lose a chunk of support.
And as Labour sees it will lose the next election too, all Hell lets loose....0 -
If Tory MPs didn't do it in the very aftermath of the election fiasco, I can't see why they would do it at any other time.Richard_Nabavi said:
I didn't use the word 'willingly'.Danny565 said:What about Theresa May's recent actions makes you think she will willingly go before the next election?
I don't know where the Tories have got this reputation for "ruthlessness" when it comes to leaders from. Even IDS's ousting was a relatively close-run thing (the no confidence motion was only carried by 90 votes to 75 votes), and that for a leader with far weaker electoral credentials than May has, and even when ousting a leader of the opposition involves far less upheaval than ousting a sitting PM.0 -
+1Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have decided to take the pragmatic approach to Brexit and generally ignore posts from either Remainers or Brexiteers that attempt to convince themselves and others of the righteousness of their cause and accept that a deal of some sort will be done and constant speculation about the outcome is a waste of effort that can be put to better useNigelb said:
My comment referred to the details in this article, which I'd mistakenly assumed TSE's comment was also referring to:Foxy said:
During Transition we are in the Single Market, so governed by EU rules.Nigelb said:
One might also say they wish to administer a punishment beating and have us thank them for it.TheScreamingEagles said:
They want to have their cake and eat it.SandyRentool said:
They want Hard Brexit, don't they?Scott_P said:@joncstone: EU demands veto over British trade deals with other countries for two years after Brexit http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-trade-deals-liam-fox-two-years-veto-michel-barnier-negotiating-guidelines-a8160996.html
I am surprised that anyone is surprised at the EU wanting a say.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/norway-may-rip-up-eu-deal-over-uk-brexit-demands?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
On this and LFC we are in agreement.
Hope you are up and about and raising hell across N Wales now Big G.0 -
-
The article itself is excellent;williamglenn said:Nick Timothy launches attack on Theresa May - https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5348662/ex-aide-nick-timothy-slams-theresa-may-lack-of-radical-reform/
THERESA May’s former chief of staff today accuses the PM and her Government of losing their bottle for radical reform.
Nick Timothy claims Mrs May has been worn down in her bid to tackle fat cat excesses by being forced to compromise with more traditional Cabinet ministers.
...
Mr Timothy - who resigned seven months ago after the general election disaster - concedes that ministers are now swamped by their huge Brexit workloads.
But he argues: “This is partly because the politics of Brexit consume so much government time."
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5348579/nick-timonthy-help-to-buy-property-boss-bonus/0 -
On the grotesque failure in the housing market I agree, although despite that, he still thinks that delivering Brexit will count as a 'huge achievement'. He needs to let go and realise that he got it wrong.Pong said:
The article itself is excellent;williamglenn said:Nick Timothy launches attack on Theresa May - https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5348662/ex-aide-nick-timothy-slams-theresa-may-lack-of-radical-reform/
THERESA May’s former chief of staff today accuses the PM and her Government of losing their bottle for radical reform.
Nick Timothy claims Mrs May has been worn down in her bid to tackle fat cat excesses by being forced to compromise with more traditional Cabinet ministers.
...
Mr Timothy - who resigned seven months ago after the general election disaster - concedes that ministers are now swamped by their huge Brexit workloads.
But he argues: “This is partly because the politics of Brexit consume so much government time."
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5348579/nick-timonthy-help-to-buy-property-boss-bonus/0 -
I agree that the message needs to be direct and relevant. But "Corbyn's tax bombshell" won't cut it any more.Richard_Nabavi said:The message needs to be simple, direct, and relevant to voters' personal circumstances. So, not 'exchange controls would wreck the City' (true and worrying though that is), but 'Corbyn's tax bombshell'.
I live in a prosperous part of the country. The local maternity unit (in a 50,000-population town) is currently being downgraded to midwifery-led. Schools are laying off TAs, while most kids' educations are suffering because of disruptive kids who no longer have a learning support service from the local authority. And let's not get into the old saws of potholes and recycling.
People are tired of paying more for less. That was Vote Leave's genius: the bus slogan was effectively "pay less for more" - you'll no longer have to pay £350m a week and we'll make the NHS better. There is no mileage right now in a pure tax cut message, and that is why the Conservatives are losing traction among the under-50s.0 -
But Trump’s victory was so narrow that even a 10% loss of support is a problem. He won PA,MI FL and WI by tiny margins.0
-
Frequently I'd guess, and he loves what he sees.Cyclefree said:
Has Trump looked in a mirror recently?TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear Trump's not getting an invite now.
(From 2013)
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/3043131808076308490 -
... having completed a top ten ugly men..TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear Trump's not getting an invite now.
(From 2013)
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/304313180807630849
Well you do have to agree with him that he would complete any list of the top ten ugly men.
0 -
That depends, a yougov poll last week did not even find majority support for an increase in the basic rate of income tax just for more money for the NHS and only a narrow majority for higher national insurance. Look too at the huge opposition to May's dementia tax plan and the support for Osborne's plan to raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million.El_Capitano said:
I agree that the message needs to be direct and relevant. But "Corbyn's tax bombshell" won't cut it any more.Richard_Nabavi said:The message needs to be simple, direct, and relevant to voters' personal circumstances. So, not 'exchange controls would wreck the City' (true and worrying though that is), but 'Corbyn's tax bombshell'.
I live in a prosperous part of the country. The local maternity unit (in a 50,000-population town) is currently being downgraded to midwifery-led. Schools are laying off TAs, while most kids' educations are suffering because of disruptive kids who no longer have a learning support service from the local authority. And let's not get into the old saws of potholes and recycling.
People are tired of paying more for less. That was Vote Leave's genius: the bus slogan was effectively "pay less for more" - you'll no longer have to pay £350m a week and we'll make the NHS better. There is no mileage right now in a pure tax cut message, and that is why the Conservatives are losing traction among the under-50s.
Voters are fine with the rich paying more tax as long as they don't have to0 -
New BMG poll has 57% backing a second referendum if no deal.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-second-brexit-referendum-deal-bmg-theresa-may-2018-10 -
The only alternative who polled any better than IDS against Blair was Ken Clarke who was unpalatable because of his pro Euro views, no alternative leader to may polls significantly better against LabourDanny565 said:
If Tory MPs didn't do it in the very aftermath of the election fiasco, I can't see why they would do it at any other time.Richard_Nabavi said:
I didn't use the word 'willingly'.Danny565 said:What about Theresa May's recent actions makes you think she will willingly go before the next election?
I don't know where the Tories have got this reputation for "ruthlessness" when it comes to leaders from. Even IDS's ousting was a relatively close-run thing (the no confidence motion was only carried by 90 votes to 75 votes), and that for a leader with far weaker electoral credentials than May has, and even when ousting a leader of the opposition involves far less upheaval than ousting a sitting PM.0 -
A poll by Left Foot Forward with a clear agenda, though of course now we are through Phase 1 of the talks with the EU we are heading for a deal ultimately anywaywilliamglenn said:New BMG poll has 57% backing a second referendum if no deal.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-second-brexit-referendum-deal-bmg-theresa-may-2018-10 -
Curiously, that's not how the poll's commissioners presented the data:williamglenn said:New BMG poll has 57% backing a second referendum if no deal.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-second-brexit-referendum-deal-bmg-theresa-may-2018-1
37% of current Labour voters say Labour’s stance is somewhat or very unclear (to 53% against)......65% of current Tory voters believe their stance is somewhat/very clear (to 28% against)......
Perhaps most surprisingly though, only 26% of voters appear to know the Liberal Democrats’ stance on Brexit, with 27% believing it is not very clear and 21% not clear at all.....
It suggests the party’s messages on the Single Market/Customs Union and a second referendum are struggling to be heard.
https://leftfootforward.org/2018/01/exclusive-main-parties-positions-on-brexit-unclear-say-voters/0 -
We were told repeatedly on this very blog that the Conservatives had mastered the art of social media targeting to an uncanny degree, and that as a result various attack videos on Corbyn had been seen zillions of times. Some posters gave regular updates every few days about the latest total.Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think they are oblivious. I certainly hope not. Certainly at the grassroots level the entire party was gobsmacked by the incompetence of the GE2017 campaign: we kept waiting for the attacks on Corbyn's policies, phrased in simple terms relevant to voters, to start, and they never came.Cyclefree said:Your penultimate line is true. You’ve said it many times. So have I. So have others.
And yet the Tories seem to be oblivious. Indeed, if recent reports are to be believed, they seem intent on reusing at the next election the “Corbyn is a threat to national security” line which bombed (excuse the pun) so badly last time.
They are so utterly useless, so seemingly bereft of the most basic political tradecraft - Corbyn is doing better on this every day - that I would cheerfully vote them out of office tomorrow, were it not for the prospect of having Corbyn as PM.
Edit: The other point is that with modern media targetting we should be able to emphasise different things to different voters. So, for example, the IRA stuff is useless for younger voters but still potent for anyone over 55 or so.
The problem was that they were OTT. Corbyn doesn't look like a deranged terrorist sympathiser (because he isn't). The sheer venom causes people to discount all the attacks, even apparently plausible ones.
Which is a fitting punishment for excessive spin.0 -
Maybe we should have a referendum on whether we should have a second referendum? We might at least be able to agree on the question.HYUFD said:
A poll by Left Foot Forward with a clear agenda, though of course now we are through Phase 1 of the talks with the EU we are heading for a deal ultimately anywaywilliamglenn said:New BMG poll has 57% backing a second referendum if no deal.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-second-brexit-referendum-deal-bmg-theresa-may-2018-1
What exactly is the question for a second referendum - will it be multiple choice?
Leave or remain -.we did that before didn't we?
Accept the deal or reject it - what happens if we reject it?
The deal on offer or a different deal in theory
No deal or leave with a deal - so go back and get one
No deal or remain with a new deal for staying in the EU which we don't know the form of (Euro and Schengen and no rebate?)
Stay in the single market and customs union or leave both
Stay in the single market leave the customs union
Stay in the customs union leave the single market
Or just let the government and MPs get on with it.
Any other possible questions?
Maybe we should just get pollsters to decide - remain won, Clinton won and May has a 100 seat majority.
0 -
Despite Brexit.....
http://www.businessinsider.sg/germany-has-the-most-powerful-passport-in-the-world-2018-1/
Number of EU countries with 'more powerful' (ie visa free travel) passport than UK: 1
Number of EU countries with 'less powerful' passport than UK: 210 -
Tories and LDs are more united, most Tory voters and seats voted Leave and most LD voters and seats voted Remain.CarlottaVance said:
Curiously, that's not how the poll's commissioners presented the data:williamglenn said:New BMG poll has 57% backing a second referendum if no deal.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-second-brexit-referendum-deal-bmg-theresa-may-2018-1
37% of current Labour voters say Labour’s stance is somewhat or very unclear (to 53% against)......65% of current Tory voters believe their stance is somewhat/very clear (to 28% against)......
Perhaps most surprisingly though, only 26% of voters appear to know the Liberal Democrats’ stance on Brexit, with 27% believing it is not very clear and 21% not clear at all.....
It suggests the party’s messages on the Single Market/Customs Union and a second referendum are struggling to be heard.
https://leftfootforward.org/2018/01/exclusive-main-parties-positions-on-brexit-unclear-say-voters/
Labour has the problem most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave0
