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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Never forget that the vast majority of those who voted for Trump are happy with their President
A recent YouGov/The Economist survey found almost 90% of Trump voters think the President is doing a good overall job #BBCPanorama pic.twitter.com/W0USzmEeWN
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Exclusive: Norwegian officials tell Brussels they may seek radical rethink of their terms if UK has to single market for key sectors
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/norway-may-rip-up-eu-deal-over-uk-brexit-demands?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Far more likely he doesn't seek a 2nd term for whatever reason or loses to Biden (hopefully)
Lord knows who the Dem nominee will be though
As ever, the economy will be crucial.
Americans, especially his supporters, are very patriotic and think their nation is the best in the world.
In calling places like Haiti a shithole Trump simply said what many people think. In his opponents getting outraged at that they basically said to those voters that what they think is unacceptable. That's not going to win over hearts and minds.
Interesting he thinks drawing attention to the bus claim is a good idea....
Impeachment nailed on.
Though I doubt many didn't already know that.
As much as Trump is the Dark Side of the American Soul, nothing pisses me off more than assorted luvvies like Hanks and Streep -- who sucked up to the likes of Weinstein for decades -- suddenly piping up with cries of “Oprah for Pres”.
I am surprised that anyone is surprised at the EU wanting a say.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/15/brexit-britain-third-country-eu-uk
That is the founding fable of Brexit, propagated by Eurosceptic journalists and politicians for years. At its core is the fallacy of “Europe” as something distinct from the UK; an extrinsic force over there, doing wicked things over here. In truth, Europe was part-British, as it was part-French and part-German. UK prime ministers wielded their share of the power that newspapers back home called “Brussels”. As a political entity and as a bureaucracy, Brussels was never just them. It was also us. A tragic irony of Brexit is that it risks turning our relationship with the EU into the unbalanced thing it was falsely said to be.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/norway-may-rip-up-eu-deal-over-uk-brexit-demands?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/joe-biden-oprah-winfrey-democratic-candidates-2020-us-election-white-house-poll-a8154991.html
Some of these MPs will indeed leave Labour.
Labour then become seen as the party of splits and disunity. Lose a chunk of support.
And as Labour sees it will lose the next election too, all Hell lets loose....
I think, as a Labour party insider, his insights were really good.
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party doesn't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Brighton, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!
"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"
CDU/CSU 31.5%
SPD 18.5%
AfD 14.0%
Linke 11.5%
Greens 10.0%
FDP 9.5%
Others 5.0%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
170 odd Labour MP 's rebelled against Corbyn previously and even if 100 formed their own group it would deal a fatal blow to him
Regarding the exchanges on the previous thread about the Conservatives crying wolf over Corbyn, and this being (as Nick P argued) counterproductive, I think it's confusing two points. In grown-up discussion here, and in private, we can tell the truth about the potential disaster the country would be walking into if (God forbid) it did allow Corbyn or his henchmen into government. However, that doesn't mean that the Conservatives should simply use that truth as a campaign message. The message needs to be simple, direct, and relevant to voters' personal circumstances. So, not 'exchange controls would wreck the City' (true and worrying though that is), but 'Corbyn's tax bombshell'.
Still, it’s the Guardian. What can you expect.
If a real split developed in labour it would have the media all over it and the rule is voters do not elect a divided party
Commentators think it is touch and go
(From 2013)
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/304313180807630849
PM or electoral failure and party splitter?
I enjoyed it but how many more identical films can he make
And yet the Tories seem to be oblivious. Indeed, if recent reports are to be believed, they seem intent on reusing at the next election the “Corbyn is a threat to national security” line which bombed (excuse the pun) so badly last time.
They are so utterly useless, so seemingly bereft of the most basic political tradecraft - Corbyn is doing better on this every day - that I would cheerfully vote them out of office tomorrow, were it not for the prospect of having Corbyn as PM.
I think it might actually be Merkel resigning followed by a period of further caretaker government and then elections
Edit: The other point is that with modern media targetting we should be able to emphasise different things to different voters. So, for example, the IRA stuff is useless for younger voters but still potent for anyone over 55 or so.
Just PB Tories clutching at their pearls.
And has the government’s behaviour since the election been so competent that you think next time the election campaign will be better?
The Lib Dems have been the most "united" party for the last decade (think about it, there's been barely any open infighting since Sir Ming left), yet they've been losing ground in election after election during that time.
I would not use it. Or do so far more subtly.
In any case, I was talking more about the message framing than Theresa May's personal image (dire though that was by the end of the campaign). That's the backroom stuff which was done very well in 2015 but extremely badly in 2017.
By the time of that election, the Conservative Party will be in lock-step, determined more than ever before to learn form the shambles of 2017 - and prevent a Socialist experiment being tried in the UK by those economic vandals Corbyn and McDonnell.
At the top of politics, it is the Labour Party that is inherently most unstable. I'm surprised that in a time when profound change has been catching everyone on the hop, the standard expectation here is for Corbynism to still be a great force at the next election. Do people really think the Labour Party is going to remain in stasis for four years? That would be most unlike recent times.
THERESA May’s former chief of staff today accuses the PM and her Government of losing their bottle for radical reform.
Nick Timothy claims Mrs May has been worn down in her bid to tackle fat cat excesses by being forced to compromise with more traditional Cabinet ministers.
...
Mr Timothy - who resigned seven months ago after the general election disaster - concedes that ministers are now swamped by their huge Brexit workloads.
But he argues: “This is partly because the politics of Brexit consume so much government time."
Labour is more united, and the Tories courtiers are all intriguing for her crown.
I don't know where the Tories have got this reputation for "ruthlessness" when it comes to leaders from. Even IDS's ousting was a relatively close-run thing (the no confidence motion was only carried by 90 votes to 75 votes), and that for a leader with far weaker electoral credentials than May has, and even when ousting a leader of the opposition involves far less upheaval than ousting a sitting PM.
On this and LFC we are in agreement.
Hope you are up and about and raising hell across N Wales now Big G.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5348579/nick-timonthy-help-to-buy-property-boss-bonus/
I live in a prosperous part of the country. The local maternity unit (in a 50,000-population town) is currently being downgraded to midwifery-led. Schools are laying off TAs, while most kids' educations are suffering because of disruptive kids who no longer have a learning support service from the local authority. And let's not get into the old saws of potholes and recycling.
People are tired of paying more for less. That was Vote Leave's genius: the bus slogan was effectively "pay less for more" - you'll no longer have to pay £350m a week and we'll make the NHS better. There is no mileage right now in a pure tax cut message, and that is why the Conservatives are losing traction among the under-50s.
Well you do have to agree with him that he would complete any list of the top ten ugly men.
Voters are fine with the rich paying more tax as long as they don't have to
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-second-brexit-referendum-deal-bmg-theresa-may-2018-1
37% of current Labour voters say Labour’s stance is somewhat or very unclear (to 53% against)......65% of current Tory voters believe their stance is somewhat/very clear (to 28% against)......
Perhaps most surprisingly though, only 26% of voters appear to know the Liberal Democrats’ stance on Brexit, with 27% believing it is not very clear and 21% not clear at all.....
It suggests the party’s messages on the Single Market/Customs Union and a second referendum are struggling to be heard.
https://leftfootforward.org/2018/01/exclusive-main-parties-positions-on-brexit-unclear-say-voters/
The problem was that they were OTT. Corbyn doesn't look like a deranged terrorist sympathiser (because he isn't). The sheer venom causes people to discount all the attacks, even apparently plausible ones.
Which is a fitting punishment for excessive spin.
What exactly is the question for a second referendum - will it be multiple choice?
Leave or remain -.we did that before didn't we?
Accept the deal or reject it - what happens if we reject it?
The deal on offer or a different deal in theory
No deal or leave with a deal - so go back and get one
No deal or remain with a new deal for staying in the EU which we don't know the form of (Euro and Schengen and no rebate?)
Stay in the single market and customs union or leave both
Stay in the single market leave the customs union
Stay in the customs union leave the single market
Or just let the government and MPs get on with it.
Any other possible questions?
Maybe we should just get pollsters to decide - remain won, Clinton won and May has a 100 seat majority.
http://www.businessinsider.sg/germany-has-the-most-powerful-passport-in-the-world-2018-1/
Number of EU countries with 'more powerful' (ie visa free travel) passport than UK: 1
Number of EU countries with 'less powerful' passport than UK: 21
Labour has the problem most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave