politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The coming West Tyrone by-election would only matter if the wi

stevef said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

stevef said:

Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

[snip]

Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

1. MPs
2. The NEC
3. Conference
4. The membership

The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.

All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.

Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/952886548588060672

Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.

The key rule of politics is never lock yourself in and throw away the key -Labour has done this and sooner or later it will pay a terrible price. Labour is level pegging with the Tories in the polls -it should be doing much better. However, I reamin of the view that if there is one thing that be worse for Labour in the long run than defeat in 2022 would be a Corbyn government. It would be such a catastrophe since he is so ill suited for government, it would gift power to the Tories for decades. And Labour would be locked into it.

I think that your real fear is that it would go reasonably well. I expect that it would be his second term that things would go sour. McDonnell will keep a tight rein on things until essential reforms are passed.

By then the Tories will have repented of their current follies and may even be fit for government.

Mr. B, indeed. If Corbyn gets in we'll be in terrible shape.

Not just economically, either.

Foxy said:

stevef said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

stevef said:

Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

[snip]

Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

1. MPs
2. The NEC
3. Conference
4. The membership

The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.

All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.

Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/952886548588060672

Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.

The key rule of politics is never lock yourself in and throw away the key -Labour has done this and sooner or later it will pay a terrible price. Labour is level pegging with the Tories in the polls -it should be doing much better. However, I reamin of the view that if there is one thing that be worse for Labour in the long run than defeat in 2022 would be a Corbyn government. It would be such a catastrophe since he is so ill suited for government, it would gift power to the Tories for decades. And Labour would be locked into it.

I think that your real fear is that it would go reasonably well. I expect that it would be his second term that things would go sour. McDonnell will keep a tight rein on things until essential reforms are passed.

By then the Tories will have repented of their current follies and may even be fit for government.

I have no idea of the next election make up in Parliament and neither does anyone else.

But what is amazing is that Corbyn and McDonnell do not have a double digit lead in view of all TM and the government travails

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, indeed. If Corbyn gets in we'll be in terrible shape.

Not just economically, either.

Worse than now?

RobD said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

stevef said:

Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

[snip]

Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

1. MPs
2. The NEC
3. Conference
4. The membership

The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.

All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.

Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:

twitter.com/britainelects/status/952886548588060672

Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.

Topped up? Labour are down slightly from their peak (and they peaked a bit too late by the looks of things!)

On that poll tracker they are at a higher point than the GE, by 1.2%, while the Tories are lower.

Topped up seems a fair description to me.

But they have fallen back a touch in the interim?

Are we really talking about 1.2% or whatever labour leads as some achievement by labour.

It is derisory in this climate

King Cole, much, much worse.

The concept of Corbyn being in government is as tempting a prospect as a handjob from Edward Scissorhands.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, indeed. If Corbyn gets in we'll be in terrible shape.

Not just economically, either.

To be honest, we get this "Labour will destroy the country" meme every time they look anywhere near Government. Attlee (as left wing in his time as anything Corbyn is proposing) was supposed to need a "Gestapo", Wilson was pilloried as indeed was Blair.

Labour were either controlled by Moscow, the Unions, both or not up to the job. It's a tedious load of old nonsense - I actually think a Corbyn Government with McDonnell at No.11 will be nowhere near the apocalyptic scenarios portrayed (surprise, surpise) by the Mail and others of a similar vein.

Mr. B, Scylla only took six sailors. Corbybdys would create far more mayhem and woe.

stodge said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, indeed. If Corbyn gets in we'll be in terrible shape.

Not just economically, either.

To be honest, we get this "Labour will destroy the country" meme every time they look anywhere near Government. Attlee (as left wing in his time as anything Corbyn is proposing) was supposed to need a "Gestapo", Wilson was pilloried as indeed was Blair.

Labour were either controlled by Moscow, the Unions, both or not up to the job. It's a tedious load of old nonsense - I actually think a Corbyn Government with McDonnell at No.11 will be nowhere near the apocalyptic scenarios portrayed (surprise, surpise) by the Mail and others of a similar vein.

I doubt if it would be the end of civilisation, but it would be unpleasant (at least for me and mine).

Mr. Stodge, you're right, and I yearn for the days when Ed Miliband was the Leader of the Opposition. In retrospect, I over-egged the cake, as did many others, (though I maintain he was clearly inferior to Cameron).

Can you really tell me you're not concerned about Corbyn, Momentum, and McDonnell?

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/952941562874548224

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Are we really talking about 1.2% or whatever labour leads as some achievement by labour.

It is derisory in this climate

Would you be happier if Labour were 15% ahead ? I suspect not.

We are seven months into a sixty month Parliament and still very much in the election holding pattern. Will that change ? Perhaps, perhaps not. It could change suddenly, it could change slowly.

Traditionally, Conservative Governments hit their mid term after a couple of years in office and also traditionally the initial move has been disillusioned Conservatives to a third party - LDs or UKIP. This time may be different with neither of those parties seemingly able to pick up - perhaps the Greens will benefit.

It takes longer to see any meaningful shift direct from Conservative to Labour (if that happens at all).

The question is which poll is more damaging:

LAB 40% CON 35% LD 15%

or

LAB 45% CON 35% LD 10%

stodge said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Are we really talking about 1.2% or whatever labour leads as some achievement by labour.

It is derisory in this climate

Would you be happier if Labour were 15% ahead ? I suspect not.

We are seven months into a sixty month Parliament and still very much in the election holding pattern. Will that change ? Perhaps, perhaps not. It could change suddenly, it could change slowly.

Traditionally, Conservative Governments hit their mid term after a couple of years in office and also traditionally the initial move has been disillusioned Conservatives to a third party - LDs or UKIP. This time may be different with neither of those parties seemingly able to pick up - perhaps the Greens will benefit.

It takes longer to see any meaningful shift direct from Conservative to Labour (if that happens at all).

The question is which poll is more damaging:

LAB 40% CON 35% LD 15%

or

LAB 45% CON 35% LD 10%

Of course not but you cannot explain why labour is not ahead in any meaningful way

With respect I do not know of the relevance of your polls

williamglenn said:

Badger botherer on the brink.
https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/952938793367109632

Who is going to replace him? Can they even afford another leadership ballot,

After all the higher echelons encouraged people to back him to stop Anne Marie Waters who has now formed her own party. The third placed candidate who sits on the London Assembly was also snubbed by the new Leader and I think one of the other candidates has also quit to form his own party. Suzanne Evans - s credible candidate who lost out to Nuttall - was still recovering from cancer treatment last I heard and doesn't seem active any more.

So not sure who is left - Nigel Farage - who of course backed Bolton?

It's quite an amazing collapse since the heady days of 2014 to 2016. If only Steven Woolfe wasn't 20 minutes late with his nomination papers it might all have been different!

Any hope of the gay donkey man getting the gig?

@SamCoatesTimes: Carillion: David Lidington confirms some contracts likely to be taken “in house” by Government. I hear MoJ one likely department to have to take over contracts themselves

Big_G_NorthWales said:

David Lidington giving a competent statement in the HOC

The fact that a government minister managing to be competent is worthy of comment sums up this shower.

Scott_P said:

@SamCoatesTimes: Carillion: David Lidington confirms some contracts likely to be taken “in house” by Government. I hear MoJ one likely department to have to take over contracts themselves

"Renationalisation without compensation"

When did the Trots take over?

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

David Lidington giving a competent statement in the HOC

The fact that a government minister managing to be competent is worthy of comment sums up this shower.

It reminds me of the old adage: "he has delusions of adequacy".

But the G-Man is very easily pleased.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, yes... although surely anyone still backing UKIP is a die hard supporter?

I suppose some might be anxious about us not really leaving the EU.

UKIP got 1.8% at the last general election, so 4.6% is 2.8% up on that (albeit they did not stand in every constituency last time)

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

stevef said:

Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

[snip]

Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

1. MPs
2. The NEC
3. Conference
4. The membership

The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.

All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.

Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/952886548588060672

Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.

With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour

Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.

No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, yes... although surely anyone still backing UKIP is a die hard supporter?

I suppose some might be anxious about us not really leaving the EU.

UKIP got 1.7% at the last general election, so 4.6% is 2.8% up on that (albeit they did not stand in every constituency last time)

So surely GE2017 tested to destruction the theory that you if you squeeze the UKIP vote to nothing, the Tories will be guaranteed a majority.

Not a majority no but certainly largest party against Corbyn

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

David Lidington giving a competent statement in the HOC

The fact that a government minister managing to be competent is worthy of comment sums up this shower.

IMO Rebecca Long Bailey played a fairly straight bat for Labour on BBC Breakfast this am. True, she got some digs in on the government - then again, that's part of her job. But she came across as reasonable and up on her brief.

Anyone seen SeanT over the past few days? Based on his last tweet Mrs Merton’s question to Debbie McGee springs to mind

HYUFD said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

stevef said:

Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

[snip]

Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

1. MPs
2. The NEC
3. Conference
4. The membership

The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.

All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.

Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/952886548588060672

Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.

With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour

Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.

No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017

I think that is correct. Labour hoovered up previous non voters which made the UkIP-Tory switch look like it hadn't really happened whereas it actually had. I think there was a decent straight Lab-Tory swing too.

https://twitter.com/financialnews/status/952948273387589632

TheScreamingEagles said:

God I hope the Crown Barrister and Judge are England cricket fans.

Ditto the jury.

Not bothered now,we lost the most important thing in the ashes and didn't help with the stokes incident.

Yorkcity said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SandyRentool said:

Scott_P said:

@SamCoatesTimes: Carillion: David Lidington confirms some contracts likely to be taken “in house” by Government. I hear MoJ one likely department to have to take over contracts themselves

"Renationalisation without compensation"

When did the Trots take over?

Shareholders will be paid the full market value of their shares.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/15/jobs-carillion-liquidation-construction-hs2 Are you sure ? says on here shareholders will not get anything.

"The value of your investment may go down as well as up".

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

stevef said:

Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

[snip]

Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

1. MPs
2. The NEC
3. Conference
4. The membership

The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.

All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.

Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/952886548588060672

Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.

With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour

Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.

No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017

You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.

Here you go again with the xenophobes,maybe these people don't dislike foreigners and just want some control on the border and numbers coming in.

Ever thought of that ?

Tykejohnno said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

stevef said:

Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

[snip]

Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

1. MPs
2. The NEC
3. Conference
4. The membership

The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.

All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.

Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/952886548588060672

Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.

With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour

Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.

No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017

You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.

Here you go again with the xenophobes,maybe these people don't dislike foreigners and just want some control on the border and numbers coming in.

Ever thought of that ?

Please. This is the Internet. There are only two positions; either anyone at all can rock up here and sling their hammock, or, foreigners will be banned and while we're at it, why not deport all the Muslims? Nuance is not allowed.

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

stevef said:

Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

[snip]

Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

1. MPs
2. The NEC
3. Conference
4. The membership

The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.

All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.

Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/952886548588060672

Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.

With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour

Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.

No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017

I think that is correct. Labour hoovered up previous non voters which made the UkIP-Tory switch look like it hadn't really happened whereas it actually had. I think there was a decent straight Lab-Tory swing too.

Once you counter in Labour to Tory swing there was more UKIP to Tory swing than Labour net gains from the Tories. Corbyn gained more voters from the LDs, Greens and SNP and non voters combined than from the Tories

John_M said:

Tykejohnno said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

stevef said:

Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

[snip]

Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

1. MPs
2. The NEC
3. Conference
4. The membership

The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.

All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.

Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/952886548588060672

Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.

With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour

Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.

No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017

You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.

Here you go again with the xenophobes,maybe these people don't dislike foreigners and just want some control on the border and numbers coming in.

Ever thought of that ?

Please. This is the Internet. There are only two positions; either anyone at all can rock up here and sling their hammock, or, foreigners will be banned and while we're at it, why not deport all the Muslims? Nuance is not allowed.

My point seems very reasonable then Mr M. ;-)

John_M said:

Tykejohnno said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

stevef said:

Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

[snip]

Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

1. MPs
2. The NEC
3. Conference
4. The membership

The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.

All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.

Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/952886548588060672

Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.

With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour

Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.

No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017

You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.

Here you go again with the xenophobes,maybe these people don't dislike foreigners and just want some control on the border and numbers coming in.

Ever thought of that ?

Please. This is the Internet. There are only two positions; either anyone at all can rock up here and sling their hammock, or, foreigners will be banned and while we're at it, why not deport all the Muslims? Nuance is not allowed.

Quite right too, god forbid people start deviating from extremist or strawman positions.

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

stevef said:

Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

[snip]

Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

1. MPs
2. The NEC
3. Conference
4. The membership

The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.

All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.

Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/952886548588060672

Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.

With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour

Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.

No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017

You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.

Not with Corbyn in charge of Labour.

NickPalmer said:

stevef said:

Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour. Labour has locked itself into Corbynism and like any infestation -they will be mighty hard to get rid of.

Corbyn's supporters might be in a state of hubris now, but what happens if Labour is defeated for a fourth general election in a row? What happens even if there were a Corbyn government which would be a total disaster -as it would be -and it was swept away in a Tory landslide at the following election. Labour would then be in a much much worse position than it was in the early 80s -it would be infested by the hard left, with no means of removing it.

It's a recurrent election. If the membership feels it's turned out badly, they'll elect someone else next time. Much like democracy in any other part of the system.

You've expressed your view of Corbyn and left-wing policies many times here. If you're right they will prove to fail, OK: having a Corbyn government that doesn't work well (subject as it would be to support from centrist MPs and probably other parties) is the only plausible way to change the balance of opinion that worries you. If Corbyn narrowly fails to win or, worse, wins but is then immediately undermined by defections, then we'll just get into "one more heave territory" and it will all carry on until he or his successor gets a chance.

Essentially democracy needs a variety of political opinions to be tried, so that we can see how they work out. It's not as though the current Government was setting records for excellence. Operating on a permanent basis that we're allowed to try anything except socialism is not a reasonable democratic strategy. Brexit, sure! A decade of austerity? OK! But not policies aiming to help poorer people?

If only they did have policies to help poorer people. But as we know one of their policies at the last election was to help people who stood to inherit expensive houses by making sure that their parents did not have to pay a penny for their care. Poor people paying taxes would have to pay instead.

kle4 said:

John_M said:

Tykejohnno said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

stevef said:

Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

[snip]

Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:

1. MPs
2. The NEC
3. Conference
4. The membership

The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.

All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.

Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/952886548588060672

Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.

With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour

Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.

No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017

Here you go again with the xenophobes,maybe these people don't dislike foreigners and just want some control on the border and numbers coming in.

Ever thought of that ?

Please. This is the Internet. There are only two positions; either anyone at all can rock up here and sling their hammock, or, foreigners will be banned and while we're at it, why not deport all the Muslims? Nuance is not allowed.

Quite right too, god forbid people start deviating from extremist or strawman positions.

I've belatedly realised I'm a Phobephobe. I hate the label with a passion. I'm TG. Not everyone is happy about transgender people, but I would never label those opposed to us transphobic. As you say, it is possible to dislike mass immigration without being a xenephobe.

HHemmelig said:

Anazina-

"My personal solution is regional visas for London and Scotland, areas which were very pro-Remain. It works fine as a system in other countries yet the unimaginative on here dismiss it for some reason. Freedom of movement but only to jobs/residences within London and Scotland. Great idea."

I can't see how that could work. Impractical and totally unenforceable, unless you seriously intend to install checkpoint charlies at Croydon, Orpington, Harrow and all round the Greater London boundary. Nothing could stop migrants working in London from living where they want to live. It would also worsen the housing pressures in London considerably.

We need to be imaginative, given the ludicrous situation the Leavers have put us in. It's far from ideal (the current set up is better) but it could be done. Those that live or work outside London are breaking the law in the same way as any other non-EU immigrants would be.

Employers that hire them would be in breach of the law of the land if their primary place of employment and residence weren't both in London (or Scotland). Some will slip through the net, as they already do. No system is perfect.

Sandpit said:

Interesting. I wonder if one of our Labour members with knowledge of the inner workings (Dr. Palmer?) might be kind enough to write a header on what this means for the rest of us?

I did reply downthread, but briefly:

* There is a pretty firm coalition in Labour at present of the left (40-45%?) and the "don't rock the boat" members and MPs (most of the rest). That's likely to last until either (a) Corbyn loses badly or (b) Corbyn wins and it turns out badly. The "don't rock the boat" members simply want a Labour government, and if it can be a successful one with socialist policies, that's fine.

* As David H says, Corbyn doesn't have absolute control of the party, since the unions and by extension the conference won't go along with anything too ferocious, such as mandatory reselection. Fortunately, Corbyn doesn't want to - he's quite content to lead with a left-wing shadow cabinet and a quiescent PLP

* The NEC is subject to annual election, but the current left-wing majority is likely to last until
one oi the hurdles (a) or (b) above is encountered.

What does it mean for everyone else? It probably makes a Corbyn government more likely, since a clearly divided party tends to do badly. But the position remains that any conceivable Parliamentary majority will depend on MPs who are not by any stretch of the imagination far left. It's likely, therefore, that a first term Corbyn government would surprise people by its moderation, though I'm sure there would be plenty of gestures unfamiliar in recent years, notably a chill in the special relationship. A second term would be trickier, with Corbyn or his successor under more pressure to "get on with it". By that time, the Tories would either have sorted themselves out or be in terminal decline.

AlastairMeeks said:

kle4 said:

John_M said:

Tykejohnno said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Anazina said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

stevef said:

Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.

[snip]

SNIP

Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/952886548588060672

Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.

SNIP

Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.

No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017

SNIP

Please. This is the Internet. There are only two positions; either anyone at all can rock up here and sling their hammock, or, foreigners will be banned and while we're at it, why not deport all the Muslims? Nuance is not allowed.

Quite right too, god forbid people start deviating from extremist or strawman positions.

It's a bit hard to take crocodile tears from those who lined up behind a campaign that was dominated by a "keep the fuzzy wuzzies out" message.

Lest we forget, a gentle reminder of the 'non-xenophobic' Leave campaign.

http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/voteleave/mailings/1357/attachments/original/UK's_new_border.JPG?1462438420

And another.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3f510b25581c993fae11fe42817a9c6d3780f376/0_305_5049_3029/master/5049.jpg?w=700&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=bde28b168c655fada1eec5f1e0b9ecae

MarqueeMark said:

stodge said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, indeed. If Corbyn gets in we'll be in terrible shape.

Not just economically, either.

To be honest, we get this "Labour will destroy the country" meme every time they look anywhere near Government. Attlee (as left wing in his time as anything Corbyn is proposing) was supposed to need a "Gestapo", Wilson was pilloried as indeed was Blair.

Labour were either controlled by Moscow, the Unions, both or not up to the job. It's a tedious load of old nonsense - I actually think a Corbyn Government with McDonnell at No.11 will be nowhere near the apocalyptic scenarios portrayed (surprise, surpise) by the Mail and others of a similar vein.

Name me a Labour Govt. that left office with employment higher than it inherited.

Nearly 8 years on, the economy is still in a less than healthy state thanks to the shambles Labour left us in. The business model Labour follows is clearly broken.

And Corbyn and McDonnell are proposing to double down on the most broken parts.

So when it comes to prospects under a future Labour Govt., the Full Venkman is quite justified.

I don't know. 'Shit or bust' is one of the all-time great soundbites.

There comes a time when an administration can't keep blaming the other guys. We're in year eight of a Conservative-led government, they still haven't cleared the deficit and the can keeps getting kicked down the road.

Apart from voting Labour in '97, I'm a life-long Conservative voter and May's lot look tired, out of ideas and rudderless. It's not a good look. Some people miss Cameron. I miss Osborne.

Mr. M, I agree.

However, tired and rudderless still beats socialism hands down.

NickPalmer said:

Sandpit said:

Interesting. I wonder if one of our Labour members with knowledge of the inner workings (Dr. Palmer?) might be kind enough to write a header on what this means for the rest of us?

I did reply downthread, but briefly:

* There is a pretty firm coalition in Labour at present of the left (40-45%?) and the "don't rock the boat" members and MPs (most of the rest). That's likely to last until either (a) Corbyn loses badly or (b) Corbyn wins and it turns out badly. The "don't rock the boat" members simply want a Labour government, and if it can be a successful one with socialist policies, that's fine.

* As David H says, Corbyn doesn't have absolute control of the party, since the unions and by extension the conference won't go along with anything too ferocious, such as mandatory reselection. Fortunately, Corbyn doesn't want to - he's quite content to lead with a left-wing shadow cabinet and a quiescent PLP

* The NEC is subject to annual election, but the current left-wing majority is likely to last until
one oi the hurdles (a) or (b) above is encountered.

What does it mean for everyone else? It probably makes a Corbyn government more likely, since a clearly divided party tends to do badly. But the position remains that any conceivable Parliamentary majority will depend on MPs who are not by any stretch of the imagination far left. It's likely, therefore, that a first term Corbyn government would surprise people by its moderation, though I'm sure there would be plenty of gestures unfamiliar in recent years, notably a chill in the special relationship. A second term would be trickier, with Corbyn or his successor under more pressure to "get on with it". By that time, the Tories would either have sorted themselves out or be in terminal decline.

Fantastic post. I completely agree with this 'a first term Corbyn government would surprise people by its moderation' – simple parliamentary mathematics, not discussed anywhere near as much as it should be.

"A second term would be trickier...."

In several senses, I think.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Being found guilty of affray comes with a maximum three jail sentence and/or unlimited fine.

Apologies for the very late response.

That is the maximum but getting anywhere near that would go way outside the sentencing guidelines. As there was no weapon the case will almost certainly be dealt with by magistrates with a community order of some kind being the most likely outcome if he is found guilty. The minimum he could get is a band C fine and the maximum is 12 weeks custody.

Mr. B, got to go, alas, but more forests do sound splendid.

HHemmelig said:

Anazina-

"My personal solution is regional visas for London and Scotland, areas which were very pro-Remain. It works fine as a system in other countries yet the unimaginative on here dismiss it for some reason. Freedom of movement but only to jobs/residences within London and Scotland. Great idea."

I can't see how that could work.

Canada manages it.

This one's for Alanbrooke and Another Richard

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/519149983929733120

TheScreamingEagles said:

This one's for Alanbrooke and Another Richard

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/519149983929733120

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/companies/contractors/carillion/taxpayer-not-exposed-to-carillion-over-middle-east-loans/10026992.article