Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
The key rule of politics is never lock yourself in and throw away the key -Labour has done this and sooner or later it will pay a terrible price....
That might not be before the rest of us have done so, though.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
The key rule of politics is never lock yourself in and throw away the key -Labour has done this and sooner or later it will pay a terrible price. Labour is level pegging with the Tories in the polls -it should be doing much better. However, I reamin of the view that if there is one thing that be worse for Labour in the long run than defeat in 2022 would be a Corbyn government. It would be such a catastrophe since he is so ill suited for government, it would gift power to the Tories for decades. And Labour would be locked into it.
I think that your real fear is that it would go reasonably well. I expect that it would be his second term that things would go sour. McDonnell will keep a tight rein on things until essential reforms are passed.
By then the Tories will have repented of their current follies and may even be fit for government.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
Topped up? Labour are down slightly from their peak (and they peaked a bit too late by the looks of things!)
On that poll tracker they are at a higher point than the GE, by 1.2%, while the Tories are lower.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
The key rule of politics is never lock yourself in and throw away the key -Labour has done this and sooner or later it will pay a terrible price. Labour is level pegging with the Tories in the polls -it should be doing much better. However, I reamin of the view that if there is one thing that be worse for Labour in the long run than defeat in 2022 would be a Corbyn government. It would be such a catastrophe since he is so ill suited for government, it would gift power to the Tories for decades. And Labour would be locked into it.
I think that your real fear is that it would go reasonably well. I expect that it would be his second term that things would go sour. McDonnell will keep a tight rein on things until essential reforms are passed.
By then the Tories will have repented of their current follies and may even be fit for government.
I have no idea of the next election make up in Parliament and neither does anyone else.
But what is amazing is that Corbyn and McDonnell do not have a double digit lead in view of all TM and the government travails
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
Topped up? Labour are down slightly from their peak (and they peaked a bit too late by the looks of things!)
On that poll tracker they are at a higher point than the GE, by 1.2%, while the Tories are lower.
Looking overseas, glad I backed Merkel (having laid her earlier following Mr. Price's comments). I'm flat if she's back in as Chancellor, and ahead if she isn't.
March will see both the Italian and Russian elections, as well as, importantly, the return of F1 (testing commences 26 February).
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
Topped up? Labour are down slightly from their peak (and they peaked a bit too late by the looks of things!)
On that poll tracker they are at a higher point than the GE, by 1.2%, while the Tories are lower.
Topped up seems a fair description to me.
But they have fallen back a touch in the interim?
Are we really talking about 1.2% or whatever labour leads as some achievement by labour.
Will be interesting to see how the DUP vote holds up. They have done a great job of squeezing the Unionist vote. However, their pro-Brexit, pro-government, anti power sharing positions must be softening that somewhat? Maybe someone in the know could opine on this, as second place could offer the only interesting betting opportunities.
Mr. B, indeed. If Corbyn gets in we'll be in terrible shape.
Not just economically, either.
To be honest, we get this "Labour will destroy the country" meme every time they look anywhere near Government. Attlee (as left wing in his time as anything Corbyn is proposing) was supposed to need a "Gestapo", Wilson was pilloried as indeed was Blair.
Labour were either controlled by Moscow, the Unions, both or not up to the job. It's a tedious load of old nonsense - I actually think a Corbyn Government with McDonnell at No.11 will be nowhere near the apocalyptic scenarios portrayed (surprise, surpise) by the Mail and others of a similar vein.
Use of the word 'boycott' in a header on N. Ireland is, perhaps inadvertently, interesting. I'm just finishing Heffer's book on the Edwardians. The word boycott comes from a Captain Boycott from who Irish labourers withdrew their labour in 1880 as part of protests for fair rents etc.
Mr. B, indeed. If Corbyn gets in we'll be in terrible shape.
Not just economically, either.
To be honest, we get this "Labour will destroy the country" meme every time they look anywhere near Government. Attlee (as left wing in his time as anything Corbyn is proposing) was supposed to need a "Gestapo", Wilson was pilloried as indeed was Blair.
Labour were either controlled by Moscow, the Unions, both or not up to the job. It's a tedious load of old nonsense - I actually think a Corbyn Government with McDonnell at No.11 will be nowhere near the apocalyptic scenarios portrayed (surprise, surpise) by the Mail and others of a similar vein.
I doubt if it would be the end of civilisation, but it would be unpleasant (at least for me and mine).
Mr. Stodge, you're right, and I yearn for the days when Ed Miliband was the Leader of the Opposition. In retrospect, I over-egged the cake, as did many others, (though I maintain he was clearly inferior to Cameron).
Can you really tell me you're not concerned about Corbyn, Momentum, and McDonnell?
Are we really talking about 1.2% or whatever labour leads as some achievement by labour.
It is derisory in this climate
Would you be happier if Labour were 15% ahead ? I suspect not.
We are seven months into a sixty month Parliament and still very much in the election holding pattern. Will that change ? Perhaps, perhaps not. It could change suddenly, it could change slowly.
Traditionally, Conservative Governments hit their mid term after a couple of years in office and also traditionally the initial move has been disillusioned Conservatives to a third party - LDs or UKIP. This time may be different with neither of those parties seemingly able to pick up - perhaps the Greens will benefit.
It takes longer to see any meaningful shift direct from Conservative to Labour (if that happens at all).
Are we really talking about 1.2% or whatever labour leads as some achievement by labour.
It is derisory in this climate
Would you be happier if Labour were 15% ahead ? I suspect not.
We are seven months into a sixty month Parliament and still very much in the election holding pattern. Will that change ? Perhaps, perhaps not. It could change suddenly, it could change slowly.
Traditionally, Conservative Governments hit their mid term after a couple of years in office and also traditionally the initial move has been disillusioned Conservatives to a third party - LDs or UKIP. This time may be different with neither of those parties seemingly able to pick up - perhaps the Greens will benefit.
It takes longer to see any meaningful shift direct from Conservative to Labour (if that happens at all).
The question is which poll is more damaging:
LAB 40% CON 35% LD 15%
or
LAB 45% CON 35% LD 10%
Of course not but you cannot explain why labour is not ahead in any meaningful way
With respect I do not know of the relevance of your polls
Who is going to replace him? Can they even afford another leadership ballot,
After all the higher echelons encouraged people to back him to stop Anne Marie Waters who has now formed her own party. The third placed candidate who sits on the London Assembly was also snubbed by the new Leader and I think one of the other candidates has also quit to form his own party. Suzanne Evans - s credible candidate who lost out to Nuttall - was still recovering from cancer treatment last I heard and doesn't seem active any more.
So not sure who is left - Nigel Farage - who of course backed Bolton?
It's quite an amazing collapse since the heady days of 2014 to 2016. If only Steven Woolfe wasn't 20 minutes late with his nomination papers it might all have been different!
Mr. Stodge, I think Corbyn's an anchor for both main parties. Labour tribalists appear to be sticking with their party even as it's consumed by the far left, and everyone who desperately wants to avoid having contemptible socialism inflicted upon them can either vote for the only party that might avoid that, or vote for an also-ran.
@SamCoatesTimes: Carillion: David Lidington confirms some contracts likely to be taken “in house” by Government. I hear MoJ one likely department to have to take over contracts themselves
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
@SamCoatesTimes: Carillion: David Lidington confirms some contracts likely to be taken “in house” by Government. I hear MoJ one likely department to have to take over contracts themselves
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
@SamCoatesTimes: Carillion: David Lidington confirms some contracts likely to be taken “in house” by Government. I hear MoJ one likely department to have to take over contracts themselves
"Renationalisation without compensation"
When did the Trots take over?
Liquidation is almost certainly a breach entitling the MoJ to take significant steps, quite possibly step-in rights but if not then rights equivalent to.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
The UKIP vote share is academic if you haven't got a UKIP candidate to vote for. They only stood in half the seats last June and since then haven't been standing in local by elections much even in former strongholds where they won council seats before.
At least half of that 5 per cent won't be able to vote UKIP even if they wanted to. The issue is where do they go?
David Lidington giving a competent statement in the HOC
The fact that a government minister managing to be competent is worthy of comment sums up this shower.
IMO Rebecca Long Bailey played a fairly straight bat for Labour on BBC Breakfast this am. True, she got some digs in on the government - then again, that's part of her job. But she came across as reasonable and up on her brief.
@SamCoatesTimes: Carillion: David Lidington confirms some contracts likely to be taken “in house” by Government. I hear MoJ one likely department to have to take over contracts themselves
"Renationalisation without compensation"
When did the Trots take over?
The appointment of a liquidator would almost certainly allow the MoJ to terminate the contract.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
The UKIP vote share is academic if you haven't got a UKIP candidate to vote for. They only stood in half the seats last June and since then haven't been standing in local by elections much even in former strongholds where they won council seats before.
At least half of that 5 per cent won't be able to vote UKIP even if they wanted to. The issue is where do they go?
UKIP stood in 378 seats put of 650 in June, well over half
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
I think that is correct. Labour hoovered up previous non voters which made the UkIP-Tory switch look like it hadn't really happened whereas it actually had. I think there was a decent straight Lab-Tory swing too.
Mr. HYUFD, yes... although surely anyone still backing UKIP is a die hard supporter?
I suppose some might be anxious about us not really leaving the EU.
We will leave. If the Kipperati and their fellow travellers on the xenophobic right continue to obsess about freedom of movement then we might get a crap deal, but that is a different matter.
My personal solution is regional visas for London and Scotland, areas which were very pro-Remain. It works fine as a system in other countries yet the unimaginative on here dismiss it for some reason. Freedom of movement but only to jobs/residences within London and Scotland. Great idea.
@SamCoatesTimes: Carillion: David Lidington confirms some contracts likely to be taken “in house” by Government. I hear MoJ one likely department to have to take over contracts themselves
"Renationalisation without compensation"
When did the Trots take over?
Shareholders will be paid the full market value of their shares.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.
@SamCoatesTimes: Carillion: David Lidington confirms some contracts likely to be taken “in house” by Government. I hear MoJ one likely department to have to take over contracts themselves
"Renationalisation without compensation"
When did the Trots take over?
Shareholders will be paid the full market value of their shares.
@SamCoatesTimes: Carillion: David Lidington confirms some contracts likely to be taken “in house” by Government. I hear MoJ one likely department to have to take over contracts themselves
"Renationalisation without compensation"
When did the Trots take over?
Shareholders will be paid the full market value of their shares.
@SamCoatesTimes: Carillion: David Lidington confirms some contracts likely to be taken “in house” by Government. I hear MoJ one likely department to have to take over contracts themselves
"Renationalisation without compensation"
When did the Trots take over?
Shareholders will be paid the full market value of their shares.
@SamCoatesTimes: Carillion: David Lidington confirms some contracts likely to be taken “in house” by Government. I hear MoJ one likely department to have to take over contracts themselves
"Renationalisation without compensation"
When did the Trots take over?
Shareholders will be paid the full market value of their shares.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.
Here you go again with the xenophobes,maybe these people don't dislike foreigners and just want some control on the border and numbers coming in.
@SamCoatesTimes: Carillion: David Lidington confirms some contracts likely to be taken “in house” by Government. I hear MoJ one likely department to have to take over contracts themselves
"Renationalisation without compensation"
When did the Trots take over?
Shareholders will be paid the full market value of their shares.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.
Here you go again with the xenophobes,maybe these people don't dislike foreigners and just want some control on the border and numbers coming in.
Ever thought of that ?
Please. This is the Internet. There are only two positions; either anyone at all can rock up here and sling their hammock, or, foreigners will be banned and while we're at it, why not deport all the Muslims? Nuance is not allowed.
"My personal solution is regional visas for London and Scotland, areas which were very pro-Remain. It works fine as a system in other countries yet the unimaginative on here dismiss it for some reason. Freedom of movement but only to jobs/residences within London and Scotland. Great idea."
I can't see how that could work. Impractical and totally unenforceable, unless you seriously intend to install checkpoint charlies at Croydon, Orpington, Harrow and all round the Greater London boundary. Nothing could stop migrants working in London from living where they want to live. It would also worsen the housing pressures in London considerably.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
I think that is correct. Labour hoovered up previous non voters which made the UkIP-Tory switch look like it hadn't really happened whereas it actually had. I think there was a decent straight Lab-Tory swing too.
Once you counter in Labour to Tory swing there was more UKIP to Tory swing than Labour net gains from the Tories. Corbyn gained more voters from the LDs, Greens and SNP and non voters combined than from the Tories
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.
Here you go again with the xenophobes,maybe these people don't dislike foreigners and just want some control on the border and numbers coming in.
Ever thought of that ?
Please. This is the Internet. There are only two positions; either anyone at all can rock up here and sling their hammock, or, foreigners will be banned and while we're at it, why not deport all the Muslims? Nuance is not allowed.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.
All those voters would already have left in June last year if they put Remain diehardism ahead of fear of Corbyn and voted Labour or LD
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.
Here you go again with the xenophobes,maybe these people don't dislike foreigners and just want some control on the border and numbers coming in.
Ever thought of that ?
Please. This is the Internet. There are only two positions; either anyone at all can rock up here and sling their hammock, or, foreigners will be banned and while we're at it, why not deport all the Muslims? Nuance is not allowed.
Quite right too, god forbid people start deviating from extremist or strawman positions.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
The UKIP vote share is academic if you haven't got a UKIP candidate to vote for. They only stood in half the seats last June and since then haven't been standing in local by elections much even in former strongholds where they won council seats before.
At least half of that 5 per cent won't be able to vote UKIP even if they wanted to. The issue is where do they go?
Where do they go? I have no idea in general but my father in law tells me that he has given up on UKIP and is now backing the Lib Dems. The worst possible guide to anything in politics is logic.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.
All those voters would already have left in June last year if they put Remain diehardism ahead of fear of Corbyn and voted Labour or LD
Comparing your answers to Tyke's made me LOL.
Tyke: We are not all xenophobes, don't be so rude HYUFD: All the non-xenophobes have already left us!
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour. Labour has locked itself into Corbynism and like any infestation -they will be mighty hard to get rid of.
Corbyn's supporters might be in a state of hubris now, but what happens if Labour is defeated for a fourth general election in a row? What happens even if there were a Corbyn government which would be a total disaster -as it would be -and it was swept away in a Tory landslide at the following election. Labour would then be in a much much worse position than it was in the early 80s -it would be infested by the hard left, with no means of removing it.
It's a recurrent election. If the membership feels it's turned out badly, they'll elect someone else next time. Much like democracy in any other part of the system.
You've expressed your view of Corbyn and left-wing policies many times here. If you're right they will prove to fail, OK: having a Corbyn government that doesn't work well (subject as it would be to support from centrist MPs and probably other parties) is the only plausible way to change the balance of opinion that worries you. If Corbyn narrowly fails to win or, worse, wins but is then immediately undermined by defections, then we'll just get into "one more heave territory" and it will all carry on until he or his successor gets a chance.
Essentially democracy needs a variety of political opinions to be tried, so that we can see how they work out. It's not as though the current Government was setting records for excellence. Operating on a permanent basis that we're allowed to try anything except socialism is not a reasonable democratic strategy. Brexit, sure! A decade of austerity? OK! But not policies aiming to help poorer people?
If only they did have policies to help poorer people. But as we know one of their policies at the last election was to help people who stood to inherit expensive houses by making sure that their parents did not have to pay a penny for their care. Poor people paying taxes would have to pay instead.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
Here you go again with the xenophobes,maybe these people don't dislike foreigners and just want some control on the border and numbers coming in.
Ever thought of that ?
Please. This is the Internet. There are only two positions; either anyone at all can rock up here and sling their hammock, or, foreigners will be banned and while we're at it, why not deport all the Muslims? Nuance is not allowed.
Quite right too, god forbid people start deviating from extremist or strawman positions.
I've belatedly realised I'm a Phobephobe. I hate the label with a passion. I'm TG. Not everyone is happy about transgender people, but I would never label those opposed to us transphobic. As you say, it is possible to dislike mass immigration without being a xenephobe.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.
Here you go again with the xenophobes,maybe these people don't dislike foreigners and just want some control on the border and numbers coming in.
Ever thought of that ?
Please. This is the Internet. There are only two positions; either anyone at all can rock up here and sling their hammock, or, foreigners will be banned and while we're at it, why not deport all the Muslims? Nuance is not allowed.
Quite right too, god forbid people start deviating from extremist or strawman positions.
It's a bit hard to take crocodile tears from those who lined up behind a campaign that was dominated by a "keep the fuzzy wuzzies out" message.
"My personal solution is regional visas for London and Scotland, areas which were very pro-Remain. It works fine as a system in other countries yet the unimaginative on here dismiss it for some reason. Freedom of movement but only to jobs/residences within London and Scotland. Great idea."
I can't see how that could work. Impractical and totally unenforceable, unless you seriously intend to install checkpoint charlies at Croydon, Orpington, Harrow and all round the Greater London boundary. Nothing could stop migrants working in London from living where they want to live. It would also worsen the housing pressures in London considerably.
We need to be imaginative, given the ludicrous situation the Leavers have put us in. It's far from ideal (the current set up is better) but it could be done. Those that live or work outside London are breaking the law in the same way as any other non-EU immigrants would be.
Employers that hire them would be in breach of the law of the land if their primary place of employment and residence weren't both in London (or Scotland). Some will slip through the net, as they already do. No system is perfect.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
Not quite. To be in "total control of Labour", you need control of, or reliable from:
1. MPs 2. The NEC 3. Conference 4. The membership
The Corbynite faction has the NEC and the membership in the bag. Conference is broadly aligned and for the time being, MPs are quiescent. However, Corbyn is still not yet in a position to impose a new settlement on Labour in the way that Blair was.
All it needs for Labour to start unravelling is for them to start to fall behind in the polls, so that they face a worse result than 2017. Those MPs who have been quiescent won't be for long.
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
With UKIP on 4.6% and Labour just 1% ahead if post the Bolton scandal the Tories can squeeze the purples back again they could retake a poll lead without winning a single voter from Labour
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
You are dismissing the prospect of their losing several million votes on their liberal flank from centre-right people who don't dislike foreigners and have a global, open outlook – once an important constituency for the Tories until the xenophobes took charge.
All those voters would already have left in June last year if they put Remain diehardism ahead of fear of Corbyn and voted Labour or LD
Voters change their minds all the time for all sorts of reasons. Speaking personally I intended to vote Lib Dem right up until about 24 hours before the polling stations opened last time. I just reconsidered the situation. Your assiduous attention to the statistics is admirable in many ways, but I don't think it is making you any better informed.
Interesting. I wonder if one of our Labour members with knowledge of the inner workings (Dr. Palmer?) might be kind enough to write a header on what this means for the rest of us?
I did reply downthread, but briefly:
* There is a pretty firm coalition in Labour at present of the left (40-45%?) and the "don't rock the boat" members and MPs (most of the rest). That's likely to last until either (a) Corbyn loses badly or (b) Corbyn wins and it turns out badly. The "don't rock the boat" members simply want a Labour government, and if it can be a successful one with socialist policies, that's fine.
* As David H says, Corbyn doesn't have absolute control of the party, since the unions and by extension the conference won't go along with anything too ferocious, such as mandatory reselection. Fortunately, Corbyn doesn't want to - he's quite content to lead with a left-wing shadow cabinet and a quiescent PLP
* The NEC is subject to annual election, but the current left-wing majority is likely to last until one oi the hurdles (a) or (b) above is encountered.
What does it mean for everyone else? It probably makes a Corbyn government more likely, since a clearly divided party tends to do badly. But the position remains that any conceivable Parliamentary majority will depend on MPs who are not by any stretch of the imagination far left. It's likely, therefore, that a first term Corbyn government would surprise people by its moderation, though I'm sure there would be plenty of gestures unfamiliar in recent years, notably a chill in the special relationship. A second term would be trickier, with Corbyn or his successor under more pressure to "get on with it". By that time, the Tories would either have sorted themselves out or be in terminal decline.
Mr. B, indeed. If Corbyn gets in we'll be in terrible shape.
Not just economically, either.
To be honest, we get this "Labour will destroy the country" meme every time they look anywhere near Government. Attlee (as left wing in his time as anything Corbyn is proposing) was supposed to need a "Gestapo", Wilson was pilloried as indeed was Blair.
Labour were either controlled by Moscow, the Unions, both or not up to the job. It's a tedious load of old nonsense - I actually think a Corbyn Government with McDonnell at No.11 will be nowhere near the apocalyptic scenarios portrayed (surprise, surpise) by the Mail and others of a similar vein.
Name me a Labour Govt. that left office with employment higher than it inherited.
Nearly 8 years on, the economy is still in a less than healthy state thanks to the shambles Labour left us in. The business model Labour follows is clearly broken.
And Corbyn and McDonnell are proposing to double down on the most broken parts.
So when it comes to prospects under a future Labour Govt., the Full Venkman is quite justified.
Much more significant than the Northern Ireland non event is the election of three hard left Momentum members to Labour's NEC. This means that for the first time in Labour's history the hard left have total control of the Labour.
[snip]
SNIP
Not happening though is it? Indeed Corbyn sems to have topped up his spring surge:
Equally likely for the Tories to start unravelling when they realise that they are going to lose to an unlikely crossbreed of Wolfie Smith and Tom Good.
SNIP
Yes and if my uncle had boobies he'd be my aunt.
No, a realistic proposition given over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters went Tory in 2017
SNIP
Please. This is the Internet. There are only two positions; either anyone at all can rock up here and sling their hammock, or, foreigners will be banned and while we're at it, why not deport all the Muslims? Nuance is not allowed.
Quite right too, god forbid people start deviating from extremist or strawman positions.
It's a bit hard to take crocodile tears from those who lined up behind a campaign that was dominated by a "keep the fuzzy wuzzies out" message.
Lest we forget, a gentle reminder of the 'non-xenophobic' Leave campaign.
Mr. B, indeed. If Corbyn gets in we'll be in terrible shape.
Not just economically, either.
To be honest, we get this "Labour will destroy the country" meme every time they look anywhere near Government. Attlee (as left wing in his time as anything Corbyn is proposing) was supposed to need a "Gestapo", Wilson was pilloried as indeed was Blair.
Labour were either controlled by Moscow, the Unions, both or not up to the job. It's a tedious load of old nonsense - I actually think a Corbyn Government with McDonnell at No.11 will be nowhere near the apocalyptic scenarios portrayed (surprise, surpise) by the Mail and others of a similar vein.
Name me a Labour Govt. that left office with employment higher than it inherited.
Nearly 8 years on, the economy is still in a less than healthy state thanks to the shambles Labour left us in. The business model Labour follows is clearly broken.
And Corbyn and McDonnell are proposing to double down on the most broken parts.
So when it comes to prospects under a future Labour Govt., the Full Venkman is quite justified.
I don't know. 'Shit or bust' is one of the all-time great soundbites.
There comes a time when an administration can't keep blaming the other guys. We're in year eight of a Conservative-led government, they still haven't cleared the deficit and the can keeps getting kicked down the road.
Apart from voting Labour in '97, I'm a life-long Conservative voter and May's lot look tired, out of ideas and rudderless. It's not a good look. Some people miss Cameron. I miss Osborne.
Interesting. I wonder if one of our Labour members with knowledge of the inner workings (Dr. Palmer?) might be kind enough to write a header on what this means for the rest of us?
I did reply downthread, but briefly:
* There is a pretty firm coalition in Labour at present of the left (40-45%?) and the "don't rock the boat" members and MPs (most of the rest). That's likely to last until either (a) Corbyn loses badly or (b) Corbyn wins and it turns out badly. The "don't rock the boat" members simply want a Labour government, and if it can be a successful one with socialist policies, that's fine.
* As David H says, Corbyn doesn't have absolute control of the party, since the unions and by extension the conference won't go along with anything too ferocious, such as mandatory reselection. Fortunately, Corbyn doesn't want to - he's quite content to lead with a left-wing shadow cabinet and a quiescent PLP
* The NEC is subject to annual election, but the current left-wing majority is likely to last until one oi the hurdles (a) or (b) above is encountered.
What does it mean for everyone else? It probably makes a Corbyn government more likely, since a clearly divided party tends to do badly. But the position remains that any conceivable Parliamentary majority will depend on MPs who are not by any stretch of the imagination far left. It's likely, therefore, that a first term Corbyn government would surprise people by its moderation, though I'm sure there would be plenty of gestures unfamiliar in recent years, notably a chill in the special relationship. A second term would be trickier, with Corbyn or his successor under more pressure to "get on with it". By that time, the Tories would either have sorted themselves out or be in terminal decline.
It's not just "economists" who have crystal balls then. Where's Mystic Meg when you need her?
Interesting. I wonder if one of our Labour members with knowledge of the inner workings (Dr. Palmer?) might be kind enough to write a header on what this means for the rest of us?
I did reply downthread, but briefly:
* There is a pretty firm coalition in Labour at present of the left (40-45%?) and the "don't rock the boat" members and MPs (most of the rest). That's likely to last until either (a) Corbyn loses badly or (b) Corbyn wins and it turns out badly. The "don't rock the boat" members simply want a Labour government, and if it can be a successful one with socialist policies, that's fine.
* As David H says, Corbyn doesn't have absolute control of the party, since the unions and by extension the conference won't go along with anything too ferocious, such as mandatory reselection. Fortunately, Corbyn doesn't want to - he's quite content to lead with a left-wing shadow cabinet and a quiescent PLP
* The NEC is subject to annual election, but the current left-wing majority is likely to last until one oi the hurdles (a) or (b) above is encountered.
What does it mean for everyone else? It probably makes a Corbyn government more likely, since a clearly divided party tends to do badly. But the position remains that any conceivable Parliamentary majority will depend on MPs who are not by any stretch of the imagination far left. It's likely, therefore, that a first term Corbyn government would surprise people by its moderation, though I'm sure there would be plenty of gestures unfamiliar in recent years, notably a chill in the special relationship. A second term would be trickier, with Corbyn or his successor under more pressure to "get on with it". By that time, the Tories would either have sorted themselves out or be in terminal decline.
Fantastic post. I completely agree with this 'a first term Corbyn government would surprise people by its moderation' – simple parliamentary mathematics, not discussed anywhere near as much as it should be.
Interesting. I wonder if one of our Labour members with knowledge of the inner workings (Dr. Palmer?) might be kind enough to write a header on what this means for the rest of us?
I did reply downthread, but briefly:
* There is a pretty firm coalition in Labour at present of the left (40-45%?) and the "don't rock the boat" members and MPs (most of the rest). That's likely to last until either (a) Corbyn loses badly or (b) Corbyn wins and it turns out badly. The "don't rock the boat" members simply want a Labour government, and if it can be a successful one with socialist policies, that's fine.
* As David H says, Corbyn doesn't have absolute control of the party, since the unions and by extension the conference won't go along with anything too ferocious, such as mandatory reselection. Fortunately, Corbyn doesn't want to - he's quite content to lead with a left-wing shadow cabinet and a quiescent PLP
* The NEC is subject to annual election, but the current left-wing majority is likely to last until one oi the hurdles (a) or (b) above is encountered.
What does it mean for everyone else? It probably makes a Corbyn government more likely, since a clearly divided party tends to do badly. But the position remains that any conceivable Parliamentary majority will depend on MPs who are not by any stretch of the imagination far left. It's likely, therefore, that a first term Corbyn government would surprise people by its moderation, though I'm sure there would be plenty of gestures unfamiliar in recent years, notably a chill in the special relationship. A second term would be trickier, with Corbyn or his successor under more pressure to "get on with it". By that time, the Tories would either have sorted themselves out or be in terminal decline.
You may be right.
But McDonnell has spoken about the possibility if imposing capital controls, a measure not seen in this country since 1979. That is not moderation, by any stretch of the imagination.
Now I hope that something like that does not happen but the fact that the Shadow Chancellor is already thinking about it makes me wonder if there is not a touch of naivety about those who think that a Corbyn government will surprise by being more moderate than expected.
There is a similar naivety about those who think voting Corbyn will make staying in the Single Market more likely when he has made it absolutely clear that he intends doing no such thing and has sacked MPs on his team who have voted in favour of staying in.
Just as it would make sense not to underestimate Corbyn it would also make sense not to ignore the possibility that Corbyn and McDonnell really do intend to do what they have been saying all these years i.e.changing this country's economic and social model.
Being found guilty of affray comes with a maximum three jail sentence and/or unlimited fine.
Apologies for the very late response.
That is the maximum but getting anywhere near that would go way outside the sentencing guidelines. As there was no weapon the case will almost certainly be dealt with by magistrates with a community order of some kind being the most likely outcome if he is found guilty. The minimum he could get is a band C fine and the maximum is 12 weeks custody.
Interesting. I wonder if one of our Labour members with knowledge of the inner workings (Dr. Palmer?) might be kind enough to write a header on what this means for the rest of us?
I did reply downthread, but briefly:
* There is a pretty firm coalition in Labour at present of the left (40-45%?) and the "don't rock the boat" members and MPs (most of the rest). That's likely to last until either (a) Corbyn loses badly or (b) Corbyn wins and it turns out badly. The "don't rock the boat" members simply want a Labour government, and if it can be a successful one with socialist policies, that's fine.
* As David H says, Corbyn doesn't have absolute control of the party, since the unions and by extension the conference won't go along with anything too ferocious, such as mandatory reselection. Fortunately, Corbyn doesn't want to - he's quite content to lead with a left-wing shadow cabinet and a quiescent PLP
* The NEC is subject to annual election, but the current left-wing majority is likely to last until one oi the hurdles (a) or (b) above is encountered.
What does it mean for everyone else? It probably makes a Corbyn government more likely, since a clearly divided party tends to do badly. But the position remains that any conceivable Parliamentary majority will depend on MPs who are not by any stretch of the imagination far left. It's likely, therefore, that a first term Corbyn government would surprise people by its moderation, though I'm sure there would be plenty of gestures unfamiliar in recent years, notably a chill in the special relationship. A second term would be trickier, with Corbyn or his successor under more pressure to "get on with it". By that time, the Tories would either have sorted themselves out or be in terminal decline.
Fantastic post. I completely agree with this 'a first term Corbyn government would surprise people by its moderation' – simple parliamentary mathematics, not discussed anywhere near as much as it should be.
We have Parliamentary mathematics on show now and we have a Tory government which is doing anything but surprising people by its moderation as far as Brexit is concerned.
The idea that being dependant on the votes of a few MPs makes you more moderate is not some immutable law of nature. It is just as likely to make you more extreme provided you can get enough votes for your measure - and you can do that by giving some of your allies something they care about even more and telling your own backbenchers that if they vote against the hated Tories will be back in. There will be a lot of pressure on Labour MPs not to rock the boat.
"My personal solution is regional visas for London and Scotland, areas which were very pro-Remain. It works fine as a system in other countries yet the unimaginative on here dismiss it for some reason. Freedom of movement but only to jobs/residences within London and Scotland. Great idea."
Comments
By then the Tories will have repented of their current follies and may even be fit for government.
Topped up seems a fair description to me.
Not just economically, either.
Anything beyond that is soothsaying.
But what is amazing is that Corbyn and McDonnell do not have a double digit lead in view of all TM and the government travails
March will see both the Italian and Russian elections, as well as, importantly, the return of F1 (testing commences 26 February).
It is derisory in this climate
The concept of Corbyn being in government is as tempting a prospect as a handjob from Edward Scissorhands.
Maybe someone in the know could opine on this, as second place could offer the only interesting betting opportunities.
Labour were either controlled by Moscow, the Unions, both or not up to the job. It's a tedious load of old nonsense - I actually think a Corbyn Government with McDonnell at No.11 will be nowhere near the apocalyptic scenarios portrayed (surprise, surpise) by the Mail and others of a similar vein.
https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/952938793367109632
Can you really tell me you're not concerned about Corbyn, Momentum, and McDonnell?
We are seven months into a sixty month Parliament and still very much in the election holding pattern. Will that change ? Perhaps, perhaps not. It could change suddenly, it could change slowly.
Traditionally, Conservative Governments hit their mid term after a couple of years in office and also traditionally the initial move has been disillusioned Conservatives to a third party - LDs or UKIP. This time may be different with neither of those parties seemingly able to pick up - perhaps the Greens will benefit.
It takes longer to see any meaningful shift direct from Conservative to Labour (if that happens at all).
The question is which poll is more damaging:
LAB 40% CON 35% LD 15%
or
LAB 45% CON 35% LD 10%
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/238721/2018-01-12-Electoral-Commission-to-Priti-Patel-MP.pdf
With respect I do not know of the relevance of your polls
After all the higher echelons encouraged people to back him to stop Anne Marie Waters who has now formed her own party. The third placed candidate who sits on the London Assembly was also snubbed by the new Leader and I think one of the other candidates has also quit to form his own party. Suzanne Evans - s credible candidate who lost out to Nuttall - was still recovering from cancer treatment last I heard and doesn't seem active any more.
So not sure who is left - Nigel Farage - who of course backed Bolton?
It's quite an amazing collapse since the heady days of 2014 to 2016. If only Steven Woolfe wasn't 20 minutes late with his nomination papers it might all have been different!
When did the Trots take over?
I suppose some might be anxious about us not really leaving the EU.
But the G-Man is very easily pleased.
At least half of that 5 per cent won't be able to vote UKIP even if they wanted to. The issue is where do they go?
My personal solution is regional visas for London and Scotland, areas which were very pro-Remain. It works fine as a system in other countries yet the unimaginative on here dismiss it for some reason. Freedom of movement but only to jobs/residences within London and Scotland. Great idea.
Ever thought of that ?
"My personal solution is regional visas for London and Scotland, areas which were very pro-Remain. It works fine as a system in other countries yet the unimaginative on here dismiss it for some reason. Freedom of movement but only to jobs/residences within London and Scotland. Great idea."
I can't see how that could work. Impractical and totally unenforceable, unless you seriously intend to install checkpoint charlies at Croydon, Orpington, Harrow and all round the Greater London boundary. Nothing could stop migrants working in London from living where they want to live. It would also worsen the housing pressures in London considerably.
Tut, tut. The Northern Ireland Catholic community. Ulster is 9 counties. Only 6 in Northern Ireland.
Tyke: We are not all xenophobes, don't be so rude
HYUFD: All the non-xenophobes have already left us!
Employers that hire them would be in breach of the law of the land if their primary place of employment and residence weren't both in London (or Scotland). Some will slip through the net, as they already do. No system is perfect.
* There is a pretty firm coalition in Labour at present of the left (40-45%?) and the "don't rock the boat" members and MPs (most of the rest). That's likely to last until either (a) Corbyn loses badly or (b) Corbyn wins and it turns out badly. The "don't rock the boat" members simply want a Labour government, and if it can be a successful one with socialist policies, that's fine.
* As David H says, Corbyn doesn't have absolute control of the party, since the unions and by extension the conference won't go along with anything too ferocious, such as mandatory reselection. Fortunately, Corbyn doesn't want to - he's quite content to lead with a left-wing shadow cabinet and a quiescent PLP
* The NEC is subject to annual election, but the current left-wing majority is likely to last until
one oi the hurdles (a) or (b) above is encountered.
What does it mean for everyone else? It probably makes a Corbyn government more likely, since a clearly divided party tends to do badly. But the position remains that any conceivable Parliamentary majority will depend on MPs who are not by any stretch of the imagination far left. It's likely, therefore, that a first term Corbyn government would surprise people by its moderation, though I'm sure there would be plenty of gestures unfamiliar in recent years, notably a chill in the special relationship. A second term would be trickier, with Corbyn or his successor under more pressure to "get on with it". By that time, the Tories would either have sorted themselves out or be in terminal decline.
Nearly 8 years on, the economy is still in a less than healthy state thanks to the shambles Labour left us in. The business model Labour follows is clearly broken.
And Corbyn and McDonnell are proposing to double down on the most broken parts.
So when it comes to prospects under a future Labour Govt., the Full Venkman is quite justified.
If someone like Cooper were Labour leader, and Momentum weren't acting like a jewel wasp enslaving an ant, then full Venkman would be overdoing it.
There comes a time when an administration can't keep blaming the other guys. We're in year eight of a Conservative-led government, they still haven't cleared the deficit and the can keeps getting kicked down the road.
Apart from voting Labour in '97, I'm a life-long Conservative voter and May's lot look tired, out of ideas and rudderless. It's not a good look. Some people miss Cameron. I miss Osborne.
However, tired and rudderless still beats socialism hands down.
Lest we forget, a gentle reminder of the non-xenophobic Leave campaign.
https://infacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/UKs_new_border.jpeg
And another.
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3f510b25581c993fae11fe42817a9c6d3780f376/0_305_5049_3029/master/5049.jpg?w=700&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=bde28b168c655fada1eec5f1e0b9ecae
And a brief chat with some Leave voters.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/eu-referendum-muslims_uk_576e558ce4b08d2c563937ff
But McDonnell has spoken about the possibility if imposing capital controls, a measure not seen in this country since 1979. That is not moderation, by any stretch of the imagination.
Now I hope that something like that does not happen but the fact that the Shadow Chancellor is already thinking about it makes me wonder if there is not a touch of naivety about those who think that a Corbyn government will surprise by being more moderate than expected.
There is a similar naivety about those who think voting Corbyn will make staying in the Single Market more likely when he has made it absolutely clear that he intends doing no such thing and has sacked MPs on his team who have voted in favour of staying in.
Just as it would make sense not to underestimate Corbyn it would also make sense not to ignore the possibility that Corbyn and McDonnell really do intend to do what they have been saying all these years i.e.changing this country's economic and social model.
In several senses, I think.
https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/01/northern-forest-united-kingdom/550025/
One of this government's rather less awful ideas - assuming it ever receives funding.
That is the maximum but getting anywhere near that would go way outside the sentencing guidelines. As there was no weapon the case will almost certainly be dealt with by magistrates with a community order of some kind being the most likely outcome if he is found guilty. The minimum he could get is a band C fine and the maximum is 12 weeks custody.
The idea that being dependant on the votes of a few MPs makes you more moderate is not some immutable law of nature. It is just as likely to make you more extreme provided you can get enough votes for your measure - and you can do that by giving some of your allies something they care about even more and telling your own backbenchers that if they vote against the hated Tories will be back in. There will be a lot of pressure on Labour MPs not to rock the boat.
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/519149983929733120
I've searched on-line and I don't seem to be able to find anything (other than this sketchy site https://www.iq-test.net/how-was-intelligence-is-jimmy-carter-pms44.html) with Jimmy Carter releasing his IQ.
The source of him releasing his IQ appears to be an Internet hoax in 2001 (see https://www.snopes.com/inboxer/hoaxes/presiq.asp).
Do you have a link to Jimmy Carter releasing his IQ test results please?