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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited January 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs May’s weird plot to make Gavin Williamson her successor is likely to fail

Trying to understand Mrs May’s recent reshuffle has been a challenge, but over the weekend a few people suggested it was all part of a weird plot to make Gavin Williamson Tory leader, Iain Martin says

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,176
    In like Flynn.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Are we to believe this account? It smacks rather of post hoc rationalisation, and is Nick Timothy really that powerful or is this to be understood as code for the PM herself?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    Williamson backed Remain out of loyalty to Cameron but all his rhetoric since the referendum has been strongly Brexiteer. He and Hinds being the most prominent new faces in the Cabinet are now clearly the likeliest figures to run on a 'fresh face' ticket in the leadership contest to succeed May. However Boris, Davis, Mogg and Gove all have sizeable bases of support within the party and at the moment remain the frontrunners to lead the Tories into the next general election
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    edited January 2018
    I suppose every leader does this but May is not making it easy for herself. I am seriously unimpressed by Williamson so far but tbh I was barely aware of his existence before he became Defence Secretary.

    In the latter days of Mrs T John Major rose rapidly and without trace. A repeat seems unlikely, especially if Timothy is involved, but not impossible.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    May's rubbish.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited January 2018
    Is Nick Timothy still involved? I thought he was the one responsible for the Tory party Manifesto....
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    It is now ten months to go util the US mid-term elections in the Senate.

    It remains the case that under Betfair's rules, the Democrats need to make four out of a total of eight possible gains. That means the Republicans in Tennessee and Ted Cruz in Texas. It also means no losses among at least four close calls (blue Senators in red states).

    They cannot win if it remains the case in ten months' time save for a 1% probable landslide.

    So 4/1 currently available - which relies on at least one, probably two, special elections in Republican held, winnable seats - seems very skinny to me. DYOR.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    They guy was invisible before being made Defence Secretary, if he is being lined up for the top job it shows that really any minister is in with a chance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    DavidL said:

    I suppose every leader does this but May is not making it easy for herself. I am seriously unimpressed by Williamson so far but tbh I was barely aware of his existence before he became Defence Secretary.

    In the latter days of Mrs T John Major rose rapidly and without trace. A repeat seems unlikely, especially if Timothy is involved, but not impossible.

    Williamson will hope he is Major, Boris is Heseltine and Corbyn is Kinnock
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    It is now ten months to go util the US mid-term elections in the Senate.

    It remains the case that under Betfair's rules, the Democrats need to make four out of a total of eight possible gains. That means the Republicans in Tennessee and Ted Cruz in Texas. It also means no losses among at least four close calls (blue Senators in red states).

    They cannot win if it remains the case in ten months' time save for a 1% probable landslide.

    So 4/1 currently available - which relies on at least one, probably two, special elections in Republican held, winnable seats - seems very skinny to me. DYOR.

    Though the House is likely to go Democrat we will likely end up with 2010 in reverse where the Republicans gained the House but the Democrats held the Senate
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we to believe this account? It smacks rather of post hoc rationalisation, and is Nick Timothy really that powerful or is this to be understood as code for the PM herself?

    I have no idea of the veracity of these rumours but what is certain is that there are factions within the party all jockeying for position when either TM decides to call it a day or more likely is asked to stand down ( but not before Brexit is clearer).

    I respect Hyfud for his knowledge of all things conservative but I absolutely do not agree Boris, Davis, Mogg or Gove will get anywhere near the leadership.

    A new face is needed and also time which is what TM is providing.

    While the cabinet was largely unchanged new faces have been promoted and Brandon Lewis has made a good high profile media start to his Chairmanship.

    I do not think remain or leave will be relevant to TM's successor and expect a surprise or two on the way
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Root, him and Fiona Hill, yes. Reportedly May is still speaking with them, though they've lost their official positions.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    All this is a bit pathetic really. If they don't like May, challenge her. Goodness knows they have enough reasons. And yet nothing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    edited January 2018
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we to believe this account? It smacks rather of post hoc rationalisation, and is Nick Timothy really that powerful or is this to be understood as code for the PM herself?

    I have no idea of the veracity of these rumours but what is certain is that there are factions within the party all jockeying for position when either TM decides to call it a day or more likely is asked to stand down ( but not before Brexit is clearer).

    I respect Hyfud for his knowledge of all things conservative but I absolutely do not agree Boris, Davis, Mogg or Gove will get anywhere near the leadership.

    A new face is needed and also time which is what TM is providing.

    While the cabinet was largely unchanged new faces have been promoted and Brandon Lewis has made a good high profile media start to his Chairmanship.

    I do not think remain or leave will be relevant to TM's successor and expect a surprise or two on the way
    If it is not Boris, Davis, Gove or Mogg then Williamson and Hinds are now well placed (with Mourdaunt and Lewis and Bradley and McVey and Hancock outside shots) as the key new and younger faces in the Cabinet following the reshuffle. No PM has got the post in government without having been in the Cabinet first
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Jonathan, there is something in delaying until 2019, but May's so inept I think that is perhaps outweighed by the positive of getting rid of her sooner rather than later.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,409
    That article by Iain Martin was chilling. It portrayed Theresa as an automaton with the sinister figure of Nick Timothy pulling its levers.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    Jonathan said:

    All this is a bit pathetic really. If they don't like May, challenge her. Goodness knows they have enough reasons. And yet nothing.

    Brexit is keeping her in place. No one else wants it and do you blame them
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jonathan said:

    All this is a bit pathetic really. If they don't like May, challenge her. Goodness knows they have enough reasons. And yet nothing.

    Brexit is keeping her in place. No one else wants it and do you blame them
    Yup.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we to believe this account? It smacks rather of post hoc rationalisation, and is Nick Timothy really that powerful or is this to be understood as code for the PM herself?

    I have no idea of the veracity of these rumours but what is certain is that there are factions within the party all jockeying for position when either TM decides to call it a day or more likely is asked to stand down ( but not before Brexit is clearer).

    I respect Hyfud for his knowledge of all things conservative but I absolutely do not agree Boris, Davis, Mogg or Gove will get anywhere near the leadership.

    A new face is needed and also time which is what TM is providing.

    While the cabinet was largely unchanged new faces have been promoted and Brandon Lewis has made a good high profile media start to his Chairmanship.

    I do not think remain or leave will be relevant to TM's successor and expect a surprise or two on the way
    If it is not Boris, Davis, Gove or Mogg then Williamson and Hinds are now well placed (with Mourdaunt and Lewis and Bradley and McVey and Hancock outside shots) as the key new and younger faces in the Cabinet following the reshuffle. No PM has got the post in government without having been in the Cabinet first
    There is always a first time
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Jonathan, there is something in delaying until 2019, but May's so inept I think that is perhaps outweighed by the positive of getting rid of her sooner rather than later.

    Then they have no right to complain.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Jonathan, there is something in delaying until 2019, but May's so inept I think that is perhaps outweighed by the positive of getting rid of her sooner rather than later.

    And leads Corbyn as best PM
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,182
    HYUFD said:

    Williamson backed Remain out of loyalty to Cameron but all his rhetoric since the referendum has been strongly Brexiteer. He and Hinds being the most prominent new faces in the Cabinet are now clearly the likeliest figures to run on a 'fresh face' ticket in the leadership contest to succeed May. However Boris, Davis, Mogg and Gove all have sizeable bases of support within the party and at the moment remain the frontrunners to lead the Tories into the next general election

    So you are saying that Williamson is an unprincipled greasy pole climber? :)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,182
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    May's rubbish.

    is taken out by Philip?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. NorthWales, barely.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    May's rubbish.

    is taken out by Philip?
    No - recycled
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we to believe this account? It smacks rather of post hoc rationalisation, and is Nick Timothy really that powerful or is this to be understood as code for the PM herself?

    I have no idea of the veracity of these rumours but what is certain is that there are factions within the party all jockeying for position when either TM decides to call it a day or more likely is asked to stand down ( but not before Brexit is clearer).

    I respect Hyfud for his knowledge of all things conservative but I absolutely do not agree Boris, Davis, Mogg or Gove will get anywhere near the leadership.

    A new face is needed and also time which is what TM is providing.

    While the cabinet was largely unchanged new faces have been promoted and Brandon Lewis has made a good high profile media start to his Chairmanship.

    I do not think remain or leave will be relevant to TM's successor and expect a surprise or two on the way
    If it is not Boris, Davis, Gove or Mogg then Williamson and Hinds are now well placed (with Mourdaunt and Lewis and Bradley and McVey and Hancock outside shots) as the key new and younger faces in the Cabinet following the reshuffle. No PM has got the post in government without having been in the Cabinet first
    There is always a first time
    You can go from the backbenches or junior minister to opposition leader on rare occasions as Corbyn has, you cannot do the same for PM, you just do not have the experience of coping under that level of pressure
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Williamson backed Remain out of loyalty to Cameron but all his rhetoric since the referendum has been strongly Brexiteer. He and Hinds being the most prominent new faces in the Cabinet are now clearly the likeliest figures to run on a 'fresh face' ticket in the leadership contest to succeed May. However Boris, Davis, Mogg and Gove all have sizeable bases of support within the party and at the moment remain the frontrunners to lead the Tories into the next general election

    So you are saying that Williamson is an unprincipled greasy pole climber? :)
    Your words not mine
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, barely.

    But does and that is the problem for labour - they should be out of sight
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we to believe this account? It smacks rather of post hoc rationalisation, and is Nick Timothy really that powerful or is this to be understood as code for the PM herself?

    I have no idea of the veracity of these rumours but what is certain is that there are factions within the party all jockeying for position when either TM decides to call it a day or more likely is asked to stand down ( but not before Brexit is clearer).

    I respect Hyfud for his knowledge of all things conservative but I absolutely do not agree Boris, Davis, Mogg or Gove will get anywhere near the leadership.

    A new face is needed and also time which is what TM is providing.

    While the cabinet was largely unchanged new faces have been promoted and Brandon Lewis has made a good high profile media start to his Chairmanship.

    I do not think remain or leave will be relevant to TM's successor and expect a surprise or two on the way
    If it is not Boris, Davis, Gove or Mogg then Williamson and Hinds are now well placed (with Mourdaunt and Lewis and Bradley and McVey and Hancock outside shots) as the key new and younger faces in the Cabinet following the reshuffle. No PM has got the post in government without having been in the Cabinet first
    There is always a first time
    You can go from the backbenches or junior minister to opposition leader on rare occasions as Corbyn has, you cannot do the same for PM, you just do not have the experience of coping under that level of pressure
    Maybe but not impossible. They are talking of Oprah Winfrey being POTUS
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited January 2018
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we to believe this account? It smacks rather of post hoc rationalisation, and is Nick Timothy really that powerful or is this to be understood as code for the PM herself?

    I have no idea of the veracity of these rumours but what is certain is that there are factions within the party all jockeying for position when either TM decides to call it a day or more likely is asked to stand down ( but not before Brexit is clearer).

    I respect Hyfud for his knowledge of all things conservative but I absolutely do not agree Boris, Davis, Mogg or Gove will get anywhere near the leadership.

    A new face is needed and also time which is what TM is providing.

    While the cabinet was largely unchanged new faces have been promoted and Brandon Lewis has made a good high profile media start to his Chairmanship.

    I do not think remain or leave will be relevant to TM's successor and expect a surprise or two on the way
    If it is not Boris, Davis, Gove or Mogg then Williamson and Hinds are now well placed (with Mourdaunt and Lewis and Bradley and McVey and Hancock outside shots) as the key new and younger faces in the Cabinet following the reshuffle. No PM has got the post in government without having been in the Cabinet first
    There is always a first time
    You can go from the backbenches or junior minister to opposition leader on rare occasions as Corbyn has, you cannot do the same for PM, you just do not have the experience of coping under that level of pressure
    Maybe but not impossible. They are talking of Oprah Winfrey being POTUS
    Yes but no actress or actor celebrity has ever made PM in this country .In the USA it is a different to become POTUS.If in the future we do vote for head of state it would change the game.Celebs in this country struggle to get any political position.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    edited January 2018
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we to believe this account? It smacks rather of post hoc rationalisation, and is Nick Timothy really that powerful or is this to be understood as code for the PM herself?

    I have no idea of the veracity of these rumours but what is certain is that there leadership.

    A new face is needed and also time which is what TM is providing.

    While the cabinet was largely unchanged new faces have been promoted and Brandon Lewis has made a good high profile media start to his Chairmanship.

    I do not think remain or leave will be relevant to TM's successor and expect a surprise or two on the way
    If it is not Boris, Davis, Gove or Mogg then Williamson and Hinds are now well placed (with Mourdaunt and Lewis and Bradley and McVey and Hancock outside shots) as the key new and younger faces in the Cabinet following the reshuffle. No PM has got the post in government without having been in the Cabinet first
    There is always a first time
    You can go from the backbenches or junior minister to opposition leader on rare occasions as Corbyn has, you cannot do the same for PM, you just do not have the experience of coping under that level of pressure
    Maybe but not impossible. They are talking of Oprah Winfrey being POTUS
    Oprah is a billionaire and has been in the spotlight for decades, same with Trump, rather different to going from being a relatively anonymous backbencher to PM. Plus President of the United States is equivalent to Head of State, the Speaker of the House is equivalent to PM and has normally held a senior leadership role beforehand
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Gavin Williamson is just the sort of younger candidate that the Tory party is going to need to win a majority next time. Williamson is not the only such candidate -Dominic Raab is also a rising star. And there may be others.
    But I suspect that as the election draws closer by 2020, the overwhelming instinct of the Tory party will be winning it under whomsoever can deliver victory. If that is Gavin Williamson, then Williamson will get the prize.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    Anyone who becomes PM has a certain something - a quality difficult to define but you know it when you see it. Even May had it in 2016, but quickly blew it. Boris too has almost blown it. Gove and JRM are interesting, but only in an Enoch Powell sort of way. Most of the other names mentioned are complete non-starters, imo. I should however like to hear more from Rory Stewart, Tom Tugenhat, Johnny Mercer and James Cleverly.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,176
    Foxy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    May's rubbish.

    is taken out by Philip?
    That was Diana wasn't it?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Gavin Williamson is defiantly in the Mayite mould: Boring, mediocre and a complete void when it comes to personality. If May could not win a majority against Corbyn what hope for the charisma free successor? It is a strange turn of events, the Tory front bench is rammed with non-entities, the saving grace for the Tories is the complete lack of an opposition. Politics has not been this badly served for a very long time.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    I find the most telling words in the opening piece the part where it says

    Another ‘minister who had been expecting a promotion told friends he had complained to the chief whip and was told: “Sorry, there are other agendas at work here.”’

    I thought that politicians hoped they might be called by the PM.

    But today`s crop apparently expect to be invited to join the Cabinet.

    This is surely the entitlement culture carried to dangerous new heights.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited January 2018
    PeterC said:

    Anyone who becomes PM has a certain something - a quality difficult to define but you know it when you see it. Even May had it in 2016, but quickly blew it. Boris too has almost blown it. Gove and JRM are interesting, but only in an Enoch Powell sort of way. Most of the other names mentioned are complete non-starters, imo. I should however like to hear more from Rory Stewart, Tom Tugenhat, Johnny Mercer and James Cleverly.

    I think the former chief whip Mark Harper is as good a candidate as any of those you have mentioned. None of them have the charisma of Cameron or Blair though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    edited January 2018
    The_Taxman said:

    PeterC said:

    Anyone who becomes PM has a certain something - a quality difficult to define but you know it when you see it. Even May had it in 2016, but quickly blew it. Boris too has almost blown it. Gove and JRM are interesting, but only in an Enoch Powell sort of way. Most of the other names mentioned are complete non-starters, imo. I should however like to hear more from Rory Stewart, Tom Tugenhat, Johnny Mercer and James Cleverly.

    I think the former chief whip Mark Harper is as good a candidate as any of those you have mentioned. None of them have the charisma of Cameron or Blair though.
    Yes but they have to beat Corbyn not Cameron or Blair and Corbyn has already failed to win once, much like Kinnock in 1992 he will be expecting to win on his second attempt but the fact he did not win first time tells you the voters clearly have reservations about him
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. HYUFD, on the other hand, leaving the EU helped mobilise many young voters for Corbyn in 2017. That said, elderly voters who thought a Con win was guaranteed last time are likelier to turn out now.

    It's an intriguing picture.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we to believe this account? It smacks rather of post hoc rationalisation, and is Nick Timothy really that powerful or is this to be understood as code for the PM herself?

    I have no idea of the veracity of these rumours but what is certain is that there are factions within the party all jockeying for position when either TM decides to call it a day or more likely is asked to stand down ( but not before Brexit is clearer).

    I respect Hyfud for his knowledge of all things conservative but I absolutely do not agree Boris, Davis, Mogg or Gove will get anywhere near the leadership.

    A new face is needed and also time which is what TM is providing.

    While the cabinet was largely unchanged new faces have been promoted and Brandon Lewis has made a good high profile media start to his Chairmanship.

    I do not think remain or leave will be relevant to TM's successor and expect a surprise or two on the way
    If it is not Boris, Davis, Gove or Mogg then Williamson and Hinds are now well placed (with Mourdaunt and Lewis and Bradley and McVey and Hancock outside shots) as the key new and younger faces in the Cabinet following the reshuffle. No PM has got the post in government without having been in the Cabinet first
    There is always a first time
    You can go from the backbenches or junior minister to opposition leader on rare occasions as Corbyn has, you cannot do the same for PM, you just do not have the experience of coping under that level of pressure
    You've long persisted in this view that they cannot, when what you mean is theyshould not do the same for PM. That and other reasons will mean it has not happened, not that it never will.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited January 2018
    Will anyone be getting an app for open banking ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    Yorkcity said:

    Will anyone be getting an app for open banking ?

    Not at all sure about it and at present it is an avoid for me
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    Yorkcity said:

    Will anyone be getting an app for open banking ?

    I think it's opt in at the moment? I'm not sure I am comfortable with other banks having access to my data.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,350
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    It is now ten months to go util the US mid-term elections in the Senate.

    It remains the case that under Betfair's rules, the Democrats need to make four out of a total of eight possible gains. That means the Republicans in Tennessee and Ted Cruz in Texas. It also means no losses among at least four close calls (blue Senators in red states).

    They cannot win if it remains the case in ten months' time save for a 1% probable landslide.

    So 4/1 currently available - which relies on at least one, probably two, special elections in Republican held, winnable seats - seems very skinny to me. DYOR.

    I think the value bet is No Majority in the Senate at 2.92 on Betfair.

    The rules exclude the independents (King and Sanders) who caucus with the Democrats as counting Democrat.

    So "No Majority" cover the Republicans getting 48 to 50, i.e. losing one to three seats. I agree the Democrats are very unlikely to gain four or more seats but they stand a reasonable chance of gaining one net and possibly more.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Will anyone be getting an app for open banking ?

    Not at all sure about it and at present it is an avoid for me
    Same here, I believe it starts this week.https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jan/08/open-banking-bank
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    RobD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Will anyone be getting an app for open banking ?

    I think it's opt in at the moment? I'm not sure I am comfortable with other banks having access to my data.
    Yes I agree.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    I think the problem TMay has is connected to the lack of any organised sisterhood in the Tory party.She's got 70,000 oldie members,the foxhunters and the freemasons,and of course her 64 top value diners to listen to.The Labour party's sisterhood you just don't mess with like my 1st ward sister whose scissors were not just there for clinical purposes.Fearsome.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Yorkcity said:

    Will anyone be getting an app for open banking ?

    I would be up for using a 3rd party aggregation and analysis service to help budget, but it'd have to be better than what I can do myself with Excel.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,967
    Yorkcity said:

    Will anyone be getting an app for open banking ?

    In a word. No.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    volcanopete said:

    I think the problem TMay has is connected to the lack of any organised sisterhood in the Tory party.She's got 70,000 oldie members,the foxhunters and the freemasons,and of course her 64 top value diners to listen to.The Labour party's sisterhood you just don't mess with like my 1st ward sister whose scissors were not just there for clinical purposes.Fearsome.

    I'm lost. What were the scissors for?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,182
    Looks like the end of the run for Man City...
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Yorkcity said:

    Will anyone be getting an app for open banking ?

    No thanks. Opens up fraud posibilities.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. HYUFD, on the other hand, leaving the EU helped mobilise many young voters for Corbyn in 2017. That said, elderly voters who thought a Con win was guaranteed last time are likelier to turn out now.

    It's an intriguing picture.

    At the moment the most likely outcome is a third hung parliament in 4 successive general elections
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,910
    Foxy said:

    Looks like the end of the run for Man City...

    It does now!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we to believe this account? It smacks rather of post hoc rationalisation, and is Nick Timothy really that powerful or is this to be understood as code for the PM herself?

    I have no idea of the veracity of these rumours but what is certain is that there are factions within the party all jockeying for position when either TM decides to call it a day or more likely is asked to stand down ( but not before Brexit is clearer).

    I respect Hyfud for his knowledge of all things conservative but I absolutely do not agree Boris, Davis, Mogg or Gove will get anywhere near the leadership.

    A new face is needed and also time which is what TM is providing.

    While the cabinet was largely unchanged new faces have been promoted and Brandon Lewis has made a good high profile media start to his Chairmanship.

    I do not think remain or leave will be relevant to TM's successor and expect a surprise or two on the way
    If it is not Boris, Davis, Gove or Mogg then Williamson and Hinds are now well placed (with Mourdaunt and Lewis and Bradley and McVey and Hancock outside shots) as the key new and younger faces in the Cabinet following the reshuffle. No PM has got the post in government without having been in the Cabinet first
    There is always a first time
    You can go from the backbenches or junior minister to opposition leader on rare occasions as Corbyn has, you cannot do the same for PM, you just do not have the experience of coping under that level of pressure
    You've long persisted in this view that they cannot, when what you mean is theyshould not do the same for PM. That and other reasons will mean it has not happened, not that it never will.
    Well anything is possible of course but it is extremely unlikely the next PM will not be at least in the Cabinet and very likely in a senior Cabinet position. Being PM is just not something you can prepare for on the job without experience of a high profile role beforehand, which means either being a former Cabinet Minister or Leader of the Opposition.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Gavin Williamson was only made Defence SoS because Fallon had to resign. Green and Patel going also made room. Greening volunteered to leave rather than stay making a further space for Hinds.

    Hinds and Williamson were not force fitted into Cabinet by May.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,967
    Is it my imagination, or is Angela Raynor raising her profile on a regular basis at the moment? Today it is interview in ST magazine about raising her child.

    Do I detect manoeuvres?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    rottenborough said:

    Is it my imagination, or is Angela Raynor raising her profile on a regular basis at the moment? Today it is interview in ST magazine about raising her child.

    Do I detect manoeuvres?

    Didn't she refer to McDonnell's plans as s..t or bust
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like the end of the run for Man City...

    It does now!!!
    Liverpool have been excellent today - (and that from a Man Utd supporter)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,967
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    Is it my imagination, or is Angela Raynor raising her profile on a regular basis at the moment? Today it is interview in ST magazine about raising her child.

    Do I detect manoeuvres?

    Didn't she refer to McDonnell's plans as s..t or bust
    and got away with it.

    This was what first made me suspicious that something is afoot.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    edited January 2018
    I saw Raab on Question Time the other night. I thought he had been moved into the Cabinet (as housing secretary?)
    Stark_Dawning said:

    That article by Iain Martin was chilling. It portrayed Theresa as an automaton with the sinister figure of Nick Timothy pulling its levers.

    #maybot
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    Yorkcity said:

    RobD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Will anyone be getting an app for open banking ?

    I think it's opt in at the moment? I'm not sure I am comfortable with other banks having access to my data.
    Yes I agree.
    Another bloody EU directive... :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,910
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like the end of the run for Man City...

    It does now!!!
    Liverpool have been excellent today - (and that from a Man Utd supporter)
    Fair play to say that.

    Fans of the 18 other clubs will hopefully be happy that Liverpool have shown that MC are beatable. Awesome performance from the men in red today though :+1:
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we to believe this account? It smacks rather of post hoc rationalisation, and is Nick Timothy really that powerful or is this to be understood as code for the PM herself?

    I have no idea of the veracity of these rumours but what is certain is that there are factions within the party all jockeying for position when either TM decides to call it a day or more likely is asked to stand down ( but not before Brexit is clearer).

    I respect Hyfud for his knowledge of all things conservative but I absolutely do not agree Boris, Davis, Mogg or Gove will get anywhere near the leadership.

    A new face is needed and also time which is what TM is providing.

    While the cabinet was largely unchanged new faces have been promoted and Brandon Lewis has made a good high profile media start to his Chairmanship.

    I do not think remain or leave will be relevant to TM's successor and expect a surprise or two on the way
    If it is not Boris, Davis, Gove or Mogg then Williamson and Hinds are now well placed (with Mourdaunt and Lewis and Bradley and McVey and Hancock outside shots) as the key new and younger faces in the Cabinet following the reshuffle. No PM has got the post in government without having been in the Cabinet first
    There is always a first time
    You can go from the backbenches or junior minister to opposition leader on rare occasions as Corbyn has, you cannot do the same for PM, you just do not have the experience of coping under that level of pressure
    You've long persisted in this view that they cannot, when what you mean is theyshould not do the same for PM. That and other reasons will mean it has not happened, not that it never will.
    Well anything is possible of course but it is extremely unlikely the next PM will not be at least in the Cabinet and very likely in a senior Cabinet position. Being PM is just not something you can prepare for on the job without experience of a high profile role beforehand, which means either being a former Cabinet Minister or Leader of the Opposition.
    The current PM seems utterly unsuited to the job and she was in the cabinet for 6 years! I think you generally get a feel for someone being of PM calibre. Certainly I would put Theresa May down as being one of the worse PMs this country has ever had. I think Gordon Brown equals her as being totally out of depth in it and thoroughly incompetent. It is funny though, the Tories don't have much talent and all Labours are on the backbenches!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    Squeaky bum time 4 - 3
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,182
    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    Is it my imagination, or is Angela Raynor raising her profile on a regular basis at the moment? Today it is interview in ST magazine about raising her child.

    Do I detect manoeuvres?

    Didn't she refer to McDonnell's plans as s..t or bust
    and got away with it.

    This was what first made me suspicious that something is afoot.
    I don't think she has ever been noted for her demure shyness.

    I like her, and while my leadership book is a mess for both Tories and Labour, am in the Green.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313
    GIN1138 said:

    I saw Raab on Question Time the other night. I thought he had been moved into the Cabinet (as housing secretary?)


    Stark_Dawning said:

    That article by Iain Martin was chilling. It portrayed Theresa as an automaton with the sinister figure of Nick Timothy pulling its levers.

    #maybot
    He is a Minister of State (for Housing) so not in the Cabinet.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT -- we Londoners have a new horror inflicted on us: warnings that the bus is about to move (often after it already has).
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42681106
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Squeaky bum time 4 - 3

    Bitting nail time Liverpool
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Squeaky bum time 4 - 3

    Bitting nail time Liverpool
    Made it - well done scousers
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,910
    edited January 2018
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Squeaky bum time 4 - 3

    Bitting nail time Liverpool
    Made it - well done scousers
    Those last few minutes were unnecessarily nerve-wracking!

    Arsenal’s unbeaten season isn’t going to be equalled, awesome game of football tonight though, great advert for the Premier League.

    You’ll Never Walk Alone!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like the end of the run for Man City...

    It does now!!!
    Liverpool have been excellent today - (and that from a Man Utd supporter)

    City self-destructed. Shocking mistakes for the three second half goals. But Liverpool caused the errors by being relentless.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    SouthamObserver said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like the end of the run for Man City...

    It does now!!!
    Liverpool have been excellent today - (and that from a Man Utd supporter)

    City self-destructed. Shocking mistakes for the three second half goals. But Liverpool caused the errors by being relentless.

    They were relentless and maybe why they fell away in the last 10 minutes
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    I do not know him and he has only just arrived in cabinet so I have no idea how he will develop
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    edited January 2018
    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,789
    edited January 2018
    US courts intervening for some extreme gerrymandering:

    http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/texas-redistricting-case-heads-supreme-court
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    Corbyn has a certain amount of charisma, particularly when campaigning. The Tories need someone who can inspire others not send them to sleep.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    edited January 2018
    ManCity lose six more games like that in the next fifteen - and the title is wide open.....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    His attempts to show how "tough" he is (that fight with Hammond, or the stuff about ISIS fighters) come across as so try-hard.

    He reminds me less of an intern, more of the 14-year-old boy who's always telling anyone who'll listen about all the girlfriends he's had (all of whom coincidentally go to a different school).
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Good afternoon all.

    Both major political parties are now unrecognisable - almost self-parodies. I have no idea who I shall vote for next time. Williamson isn't even a nonentity.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    edited January 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    Corbyn has a certain amount of charisma, particularly when campaigning. The Tories need someone who can inspire others not send them to sleep.
    Do they? They still managed to win 56 more seats than Corbyn led Labour in June despite a very dull leader and one of the worst campaigns in history. Though if charisma is needed for a majority Boris is still by far and away the best on that score
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    I take it you'd have supported Lord Halifax BA (Oxon) over the non-graduate Churchill in May 1940. How was the film btw?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,789
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    Corbyn has a certain amount of charisma, particularly when campaigning. The Tories need someone who can inspire others not send them to sleep.
    Do they? They still managed to win 56 more seats than Corbyn led Labour in June despite a very dull leader and one of the worst campaigns in history. Though if charisma is needed for a majority Boris is still by far and away the best on that score
    He is, but more than anyone else in frontline politics he appears to stand for precisely nothing. The Tories look tired out - more than a charismatic leader they need a leader who has a concept for what their purpose is, after Brexit's done.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    Corbyn has a certain amount of charisma, particularly when campaigning. The Tories need someone who can inspire others not send them to sleep.
    Do they? They still managed to win 56 more seats than Corbyn led Labour in June despite a very dull leader and one of the worst campaigns in history. Though if charisma is needed for a majority Boris is still by far and away the best on that score
    He is, but more than anyone else in frontline politics he appears to stand for precisely nothing. The Tories look tired out - more than a charismatic leader they need a leader who has a concept for what their purpose is, after Brexit's done.
    I've just said the same thing (great minds think alike? Or fools seldom differ?). The Tories have been in power for eight very difficult years with much sturm und drang. They don't seem to have much fire in their bellies.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    Corbyn has a certain amount of charisma, particularly when campaigning. The Tories need someone who can inspire others not send them to sleep.
    Leading the opposition seems much too much of a bore chore for Jezza, the UK Chancy Gardener.


    That said, can someone please put Theresa out of her misery. It is excruciating and painful to even hear her robotic voice.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    I take it you'd have supported Lord Halifax BA (Oxon) over the non-graduate Churchill in May 1940. How was the film btw?
    Of course not but I was just making the point Williamson is hardly up against an Oxford 1st. The film was very good, Oldman was excellent
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,969
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    Corbyn has a certain amount of charisma, particularly when campaigning. The Tories need someone who can inspire others not send them to sleep.
    Do they? They still managed to win 56 more seats than Corbyn led Labour in June despite a very dull leader and one of the worst campaigns in history. Though if charisma is needed for a majority Boris is still by far and away the best on that score
    Was that you on Twitter getting a doing for trying to promote the Empire being a shining example of free trade rather than the gunboat diplomacy it was in reality
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    Corbyn has a certain amount of charisma, particularly when campaigning. The Tories need someone who can inspire others not send them to sleep.
    Do they? They still managed to win 56 more seats than Corbyn led Labour in June despite a very dull leader and one of the worst campaigns in history. Though if charisma is needed for a majority Boris is still by far and away the best on that score
    He is, but more than anyone else in frontline politics he appears to stand for precisely nothing. The Tories look tired out - more than a charismatic leader they need a leader who has a concept for what their purpose is, after Brexit's done.

    Boris stands very clearly for Boris. He has made that absolutely clear.

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    Corbyn has a certain amount of charisma, particularly when campaigning. The Tories need someone who can inspire others not send them to sleep.
    Do they? They still managed to win 56 more seats than Corbyn led Labour in June despite a very dull leader and one of the worst campaigns in history. Though if charisma is needed for a majority Boris is still by far and away the best on that score
    He is, but more than anyone else in frontline politics he appears to stand for precisely nothing. The Tories look tired out - more than a charismatic leader they need a leader who has a concept for what their purpose is, after Brexit's done.
    Governing seems just too tough from whichever angle you look at it Nick. As much as I want to see the Tories out of power for so many reasons, I couldn't imagine Corbyn making a particularly good fist of the chaos that the Tories have made of public services, dividing the country and bringing Brexit on us, and that is without even considering the imbecile across the pond.

    Do you think Jeremy looks in the mirror and really believes that his answers stuck in the New Left politics of the early 70's bear any resemblance to today?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    Corbyn has a certain amount of charisma, particularly when campaigning. The Tories need someone who can inspire others not send them to sleep.
    Do they? They still managed to win 56 more seats than Corbyn led Labour in June despite a very dull leader and one of the worst campaigns in history. Though if charisma is needed for a majority Boris is still by far and away the best on that score
    He is, but more than anyone else in frontline politics he appears to stand for precisely nothing. The Tories look tired out - more than a charismatic leader they need a leader who has a concept for what their purpose is, after Brexit's done.
    Keeping taxes lower than under Corbyn would be a start, it at least worked for Major in 1992. Though I can't see the Tories stretching the elastic more than 1 more term and then it will largely because of Corbyn as it was because of Kinnock in large part they got a 4th term in 1992
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    Corbyn has a certain amount of charisma, particularly when campaigning. The Tories need someone who can inspire others not send them to sleep.
    Do they? They still managed to win 56 more seats than Corbyn led Labour in June despite a very dull leader and one of the worst campaigns in history. Though if charisma is needed for a majority Boris is still by far and away the best on that score
    Was that you on Twitter getting a doing for trying to promote the Empire being a shining example of free trade rather than the gunboat diplomacy it was in reality
    I get a doing on Twitter for a lot of things, just following Brandon Lewis' call today for Tories to be more active in taking on the left on social media
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we to believe this account? It smacks rather of post hoc rationalisation, and is Nick Timothy really that powerful or is this to be understood as code for the PM herself?

    I have no idea of the veracity of these rumours but what is certain is that there are factions within the party all jockeying for position when either TM decides to call it a day or more likely is asked to stand down ( but not before Brexit is clearer).

    I respect Hyfud for his knowledge of all things conservative but I absolutely do not agree Boris, Davis, Mogg or Gove will get anywhere near the leadership.

    A new face is needed and also time which is what TM is providing.

    While the cabinet was largely unchanged new faces have been promoted and Brandon Lewis has made a good high profile media start to his Chairmanship.

    I do not think remain or leave will be relevant to TM's successor and expect a surprise or two on the way
    If it is not Boris, Davis, Gove or Mogg then Williamson and Hinds are now well placed (with Mourdaunt and Lewis and Bradley and McVey and Hancock outside shots) as the key new and younger faces in the Cabinet following the reshuffle. No PM has got the post in government without having been in the Cabinet first
    There is always a first time
    You can go from the backbenches or junior minister to opposition leader on rare occasions as Corbyn has, you cannot do the same for PM, you just do not have the experience of coping under that level of pressure
    You've long persisted in this view that they cannot, when what you mean is theyshould not do the same for PM. That and other reasons will mean it has not happened, not that it never will.
    Well anything is possible of course but it is extremely unlikely the next PM will not be at least in the Cabinet and very likely in a senior Cabinet position. Being PM is just not something you can prepare for on the job without experience of a high profile role beforehand, which means either being a former Cabinet Minister or Leader of the Opposition.
    As evidenced by the benefit of their experience offered to us all by one Mr Brown and Mrs May?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    Corbyn has a certain amount of charisma, particularly when campaigning. The Tories need someone who can inspire others not send them to sleep.
    Do they? They still managed to win 56 more seats than Corbyn led Labour in June despite a very dull leader and one of the worst campaigns in history. Though if charisma is needed for a majority Boris is still by far and away the best on that score
    He is, but more than anyone else in frontline politics he appears to stand for precisely nothing. The Tories look tired out - more than a charismatic leader they need a leader who has a concept for what their purpose is, after Brexit's done.
    Keeping taxes lower than under Corbyn would be a start, it at least worked for Major in 1992. Though I can't see the Tories stretching the elastic more than 1 more term and then it will largely because of Corbyn as it was because of Kinnock in large part they got a 4th term in 1992
    If the Tories scraped another election, which I severely doubt....it would probably be the end of the party. Their best hope is for Labour to win with a weak coalition Govt and watch from the sidelines for a few years or so....
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited January 2018
    tyson said:

    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    Corbyn has a certain amount of charisma, particularly when campaigning. The Tories need someone who can inspire others not send them to sleep.
    Do they? They still managed to win 56 more seats than Corbyn led Labour in June despite a very dull leader and one of the worst campaigns in history. Though if charisma is needed for a majority Boris is still by far and away the best on that score
    He is, but more than anyone else in frontline politics he appears to stand for precisely nothing. The Tories look tired out - more than a charismatic leader they need a leader who has a concept for what their purpose is, after Brexit's done.
    Governing seems just too tough from whichever angle you look at it Nick. As much as I want to see the Tories out of power for so many reasons, I couldn't imagine Corbyn making a particularly good fist of the chaos that the Tories have made of public services, dividing the country and bringing Brexit on us, and that is without even considering the imbecile across the pond.

    Do you think Jeremy looks in the mirror and really believes that his answers stuck in the New Left politics of the early 70's bear any resemblance to today?
    Selective memory Tyson. The Labour Party CF Gordon Brown fecked the UK royally and it will take decades to recover. There really is no magic money tree , even if, to you, the Govt looks incompetent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    edited January 2018
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we to believe this account? It smacks rather of post hoc rationalisation, and is Nick Timothy really that powerful or is this to be understood as code for the PM herself?

    I have no idea of the veracity of these rumours but what is certain is that there are factions within the party all jockeying for position when either TM decides to call it a day or more likely is asked to stand down ( but not before Brexit is clearer).

    I respect Hyfud for his knowledge of all things conservative but I absolutely do not agree Boris, Davis, Mogg or Gove will get anywhere near the leadership.

    A new face is needed and also time which is what TM is providing.

    While the cabinet was largely unchanged new faces have been promoted and Brandon Lewis has made a good high profile media start to his Chairmanship.

    I do not think remain or leave will be relevant to TM's successor and expect a surprise or two on the way
    If it is not Boris, Davis, Gove or Mogg then Williamson and Hinds are now well placed (with Mourdaunt and Lewis and Bradley and McVey and Hancock outside shots) as the key new and younger faces in the Cabinet following the reshuffle. No PM has got the post in government without having been in the Cabinet first
    There is always a first time
    You can go from the backbenches or junior minister to opposition leader on rare occasions as Corbyn has, you cannot do the same for PM, you just do not have the experience of coping under that level of pressure
    You've long persisted in this view that they cannot, when what you mean is theyshould not do the same for PM. That and other reasons will mean it has not happened, not that it never will.
    Well anything is possible of course but it is extremely unlikely the next PM will not be at least in the Cabinet and very likely in a senior Cabinet position. Being PM is just not something you can prepare for on the job without experience of a high profile role beforehand, which means either being a former Cabinet Minister or Leader of the Opposition.
    As evidenced by the benefit of their experience offered to us all by one Mr Brown and Mrs May?
    Or Eden, Macmillan, Home, Callaghan, Major and virtually every other PM who has taken over in government
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gavin Williamson looks like an intern on work experience.

    Not a possible PM.

    Interestingly, he got his degree in social sciences from Bradford University.

    I don't rate him at all. He just does not look the part as PM.
    Corbyn does not either and at least Williamson completed his degree unlike the leader of the opposition who dropped out of his course at London Metropolitan University
    Corbyn has a certain amount of charisma, particularly when campaigning. The Tories need someone who can inspire others not send them to sleep.
    Do they? They still managed to win 56 more seats than Corbyn led Labour in June despite a very dull leader and one of the worst campaigns in history. Though if charisma is needed for a majority Boris is still by far and away the best on that score
    He is, but more than anyone else in frontline politics he appears to stand for precisely nothing. The Tories look tired out - more than a charismatic leader they need a leader who has a concept for what their purpose is, after Brexit's done.
    Keeping taxes lower than under Corbyn would be a start, it at least worked for Major in 1992. Though I can't see the Tories stretching the elastic more than 1 more term and then it will largely because of Corbyn as it was because of Kinnock in large part they got a 4th term in 1992
    If the Tories scraped another election, which I severely doubt....it would probably be the end of the party. Their best hope is for Labour to win with a weak coalition Govt and watch from the sidelines for a few years or so....
    You may be right but it would not be the end of the party, even in 1997 almost a third of the country voted for them
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    @squareroot....
    Do you honestly believe that stuff you write? The worst thing Labour did was to be so reliant on an unregulated banking sector that collapsed the tax receipts for the economy. But as with any economic crisis the party in power usually takes the hit.

    The state of the NHS and Social Care today, this minute, is appalling and a tragedy caused by this Govt's ideology, ambivalence and sheer incompetence...;it is an absolute disgrace what people are facing this winter, many elderly and at their most vulnerable....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,182
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we to believe this account? It smacks rather of post hoc rationalisation, and is Nick Timothy really that powerful or is this to be understood as code for the PM herself?

    I have no idea of the veracity of these rumours but what is certain is that there are factions within the party all jockeying for position when either TM decides to call it a day or more likely is asked to stand down ( but not before Brexit is clearer).

    I respect Hyfud for his knowledge of all things conservative but I absolutely do not agree Boris, Davis, Mogg or Gove will get anywhere near the leadership.

    A new face is needed and also time which is what TM is providing.

    While the cabinet was largely unchanged new faces have been promoted and Brandon Lewis has made a good high profile media start to his Chairmanship.

    I do not think remain or leave will be relevant to TM's successor and expect a surprise or two on the way
    If it is not Boris, Davis, Gove or Mogg then Williamson and Hinds are now well placed (with Mourdaunt and Lewis and Bradley and McVey and Hancock outside shots) as the key new and younger faces in the Cabinet following the reshuffle. No PM has got the post in government without having been in the Cabinet first
    There is always a first time
    You can go from the backbenches or junior minister to opposition leader on rare occasions as Corbyn has, you cannot do the same for PM, you just do not have the experience of coping under that level of pressure
    You've long persisted in this view that they cannot, when what you mean is theyshould not do the same for PM. That and other reasons will mean it has not happened, not that it never will.
    Well anything is possible of course but it is extremely unlikely the next PM will not be at least in the Cabinet and very likely in a senior Cabinet position. Being PM is just not something you can prepare for on the job without experience of a high profile role beforehand, which means either being a former Cabinet Minister or Leader of the Opposition.
    As evidenced by the benefit of their experience offered to us all by one Mr Brown and Mrs May?
    Or Eden, Macmillan, Home, Callaghan, Major and virtually every other PM who has taken over in government
    Apart from Macmillan, not a great track record....
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