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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review 2017 – how the parties have performed
To describe 2017 as a year of two halves would be absolutely correct, as the general election held on June 8th marked a distinct dividing line not only at Westminster (between a Conservative majority of 12 and no majority) but also in local by-elections with the electoral pendulum swinging rapidly from one side to the other and so therefore it is best to look at the year before and after the general election
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First?-1
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I will tell people what you say, Harry, but I fear they will still tell me local by-elections are boring.0
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Breaking news:
Dr-FauxSuks mob ahead of some plastic 'Yorkshire' team (from Scotland). Early-days yet.-1 -
Thanks, Harry!0
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Great summary - thank you Mr Hayfield. Though I wouldn't call a 4% swing seismic.....
FPT - if only HMRC would do more on tax dodging:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5234597/gary-lineker-and-david-beckham-lose-court-battle-claim-back-480million-tax/0 -
A year of two halves.
With UKIP collapse and a quiet LD recovery.0 -
Each week, local government contests seem to throw up unusual results. However, with the larger amount of data that a calendar year brings and the great work Harry puts in to analysing the data, it seems that local by-elections are a fair indication of what's going on.
In that, I include this year's county council elections which is in my view the pivot point of the year.
I recall mentioning to a local Labour bigwig at my county council election count that John Claude Juncker was Theresa May's greatest ally. It was his interfering comments in the county council election polling week, played on effectively by Mrs May, that had driven Conservatives out to vote.
I said to the Labour bigwig that he needed to get Labour HQ to get on the blower to Juncker and tell him to keep his mouth shut.
Whether they did or not, JCJ became a trappist for the rest of the General Election campaign while Mrs May along with her advisers took all the wrong messages from the county council election results with all that flowed from that.0 -
A most interesting analysis - I suspect a more nuanced dig would reveal that the end of the year saw things become more settled and reflective of the current very close polling between the 2 parties. How the new year pans out depends largely on both the economy and Brexit. there are plenty [maybe too many] forecasts of plague and pestilence and if they do not materialise i suspect a Tory recovery could happen. Of course there are always events......0
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I'm told we are definitely hitting an economic catastrophe and that alone is reason to overrule democracy. Never mind the 5% unemployment and record stock prices.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-425120230 -
To be fair the last couple of weeks, this week and the early part of next are not going to ones for a great call from the public for anything even faintly political.0
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There is speculation in the Tory party that he wants to become mayor of London, and Standard sources also believe that when he joined the paper he had the mayoralty "at the back of his mind". It would be a familiar tactic: Boris Johnson used his editorship of the Spectator to launch a successful City Hall bid in 2008. The conjecture is that Sadiq Khan will win again in 2020, after which Osborne could use six years in charge of London's paper to mount a challenge. And, after that, who's to say he won't springboard back to the national level again?
Sceptics will argue that Osborne now has too much bad blood with former colleagues, that the editor of a newspaper won't ever make it to Number Ten. But in an era when a reality TV star can become president of the US, anything is possible. And if the political comeback doesn't work, he's always got his media career. There are even whispers that there's one other newspaper he would like to run, a paper where he reportedly once spent an evening after the 2010 election sitting on the editorial "backbench" alongside its editor, Paul Dacre. That's right: the Daily Mail.
http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/george-osborne-westminster-comeback0 -
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
Running the Daily Mail and aspiring to be Mayor of London are utterly incompatible.FrancisUrquhart said:There is speculation in the Tory party that he wants to become mayor of London, and Standard sources also believe that when he joined the paper he had the mayoralty "at the back of his mind". It would be a familiar tactic: Boris Johnson used his editorship of the Spectator to launch a successful City Hall bid in 2008. The conjecture is that Sadiq Khan will win again in 2020, after which Osborne could use six years in charge of London's paper to mount a challenge. And, after that, who's to say he won't springboard back to the national level again?
Sceptics will argue that Osborne now has too much bad blood with former colleagues, that the editor of a newspaper won't ever make it to Number Ten. But in an era when a reality TV star can become president of the US, anything is possible. And if the political comeback doesn't work, he's always got his media career. There are even whispers that there's one other newspaper he would like to run, a paper where he reportedly once spent an evening after the 2010 election sitting on the editorial "backbench" alongside its editor, Paul Dacre. That's right: the Daily Mail.
http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/george-osborne-westminster-comeback0 -
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
Apparently Osborne is totally addicted to the Sidebar of Shame.FrancisUrquhart said:There is speculation in the Tory party that he wants to become mayor of London, and Standard sources also believe that when he joined the paper he had the mayoralty "at the back of his mind". It would be a familiar tactic: Boris Johnson used his editorship of the Spectator to launch a successful City Hall bid in 2008. The conjecture is that Sadiq Khan will win again in 2020, after which Osborne could use six years in charge of London's paper to mount a challenge. And, after that, who's to say he won't springboard back to the national level again?
Sceptics will argue that Osborne now has too much bad blood with former colleagues, that the editor of a newspaper won't ever make it to Number Ten. But in an era when a reality TV star can become president of the US, anything is possible. And if the political comeback doesn't work, he's always got his media career. There are even whispers that there's one other newspaper he would like to run, a paper where he reportedly once spent an evening after the 2010 election sitting on the editorial "backbench" alongside its editor, Paul Dacre. That's right: the Daily Mail.
http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/george-osborne-westminster-comeback0 -
Who isn't?rcs1000 said:
Apparently Osborne is totally addicted to the Sidebar of Shame.FrancisUrquhart said:There is speculation in the Tory party that he wants to become mayor of London, and Standard sources also believe that when he joined the paper he had the mayoralty "at the back of his mind". It would be a familiar tactic: Boris Johnson used his editorship of the Spectator to launch a successful City Hall bid in 2008. The conjecture is that Sadiq Khan will win again in 2020, after which Osborne could use six years in charge of London's paper to mount a challenge. And, after that, who's to say he won't springboard back to the national level again?
Sceptics will argue that Osborne now has too much bad blood with former colleagues, that the editor of a newspaper won't ever make it to Number Ten. But in an era when a reality TV star can become president of the US, anything is possible. And if the political comeback doesn't work, he's always got his media career. There are even whispers that there's one other newspaper he would like to run, a paper where he reportedly once spent an evening after the 2010 election sitting on the editorial "backbench" alongside its editor, Paul Dacre. That's right: the Daily Mail.
http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/george-osborne-westminster-comeback
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Some of those numbers are surprisingly low.CarlottaVance said:
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
Remainers - 33%RobD said:
Some of those numbers are surprisingly low.CarlottaVance said:
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
This polling is a helpful reminder that most Remainers are not the spiteful types that think anyone that disagrees with them is a racist yokel.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.
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The key thing that has been clear in local by elections both before and after the general election is the collapse in voteshare of UKIP after the Brexit vote to the benefit of the main 3 parties.
In seat terms though it is interesting that the biggest gains from both the Tories and UKIP have been by the LDs rather than UKIP taking the year as a whole and it will be interesting to see if that continues next year especially as the LDs have more scope for growth in London and are leading the Opposition to local plans.0 -
If the last two years are any indication, not looking likely makes it a sure bet....RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
How good a predictor of future economic performance are stock prices? (I ask in all seriousness.)Elliot said:
I'm told we are definitely hitting an economic catastrophe and that alone is reason to overrule democracy. Never mind the 5% unemployment and record stock prices.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-42512023
If you did a scatter chart, with last twelve month share price performances on one axis, and forward three year economic growth on the other, I suspect you'd see (at best) zero correlation, and it's quite possible you'd see a negative one. Stock prices (and unemployment too) tend to be lagging indicators. So, Iceland, Ireland, Spain, Greece, the UK and the US in 2007 would have been in rude health on these measures.
The big issue the UK has as an economy is that we've gone from major net creditors to the world (i.e., they owed us money), to being debtors.
This has happened because we've run a treble deficit: our government has spent more than it's brought in; the people spend more than they earn; and we import more from abroad than we export.
None of these things have anything at all do with Brexit.
Countries who have had pretty awful economic slowdowns typically have two or three of those deficits. Greece, Spain and Ireland in 2007/8 ran treble deficits. (Although at least Spain and Ireland had very low government debt-to-GDP, which we do not.)
We do have the distinct advantage of not being in the Euro. We also have better demographics than, for example, Italy.
But the future economic indicators for the UK are flashing at least yellow, and possibly red. Worse, politicians are so determined to avoid any risk of a Brexit slowdown that they are allowing inbalances to grow. This means that when the inevitable recession comes, it will likely be extremely painful.0 -
Macron et al are not minded to ask us to stay. Quite frankly the UK leaving removes a headache for Federalists in that we would always be unhappy with further integration.Barnesian said:
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.0 -
Even if support among Remainers doubled, you would still only have 40% of the population, when realistically you need 65%+ for politicians to be willing to overturn the result, or even run another referendum. Cabinet ministers or unelected Lords blocking it would likely be seen badly by the public, and I doubt FTA negotiation details are the sort of thing that preoccupy the British public too much.Barnesian said:
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.
The bump in Brexit support after the interim deal actually suggests there is a bigger latent majority for Brexit, which is held down by them thinking the negotiations are being screwed up.0 -
The sneering metropolitan elite - which includes Adonis: speaking on behalf of the 16%. But as in their minds, they're the only ones who count, 16 is greater than 84.Elliot said:
This polling is a helpful reminder that most Remainers are not the spiteful types that think anyone that disagrees with them is a racist yokel.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
The only thing that would cause a tipping point would be if a large number of people felt their prosperity was newly imperilled by Brexit.Barnesian said:
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.
Is that possible? Yes.
Is that - despite all my negativity about the British economy - likely? No.0 -
It was my understanding that both corporate debt and household debt had come down as a share of GDP since 2007. I understand government debt has climbed, but the growth has reduced and is about to turn negative (in GDP terms).rcs1000 said:
How good a predictor of future economic performance are stock prices? (I ask in all seriousness.)Elliot said:
I'm told we are definitely hitting an economic catastrophe and that alone is reason to overrule democracy. Never mind the 5% unemployment and record stock prices.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-42512023
But the future economic indicators for the UK are flashing at least yellow, and possibly red. Worse, politicians are so determined to avoid any risk of a Brexit slowdown that they are allowing inbalances to grow. This means that when the inevitable recession comes, it will likely be extremely painful.
Isn't it also the case that a lot of this is the flip side of foreigners wanting to invest in the UK?0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/30/macron-2018-brexit-french-president-europe-leaving-eu?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=258616&subid=12968901&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2Philip_Thompson said:
Macron et al are not minded to ask us to stay. Quite frankly the UK leaving removes a headache for Federalists in that we would always be unhappy with further integration.Barnesian said:
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.0 -
How much of this is actually based on what he will do, as opposed to what the author hopes he will do? Macron wants to get on with more integration, getting the UK out makes that a lot easier.Barnesian said:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/30/macron-2018-brexit-french-president-europe-leaving-eu?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=258616&subid=12968901&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2Philip_Thompson said:
Macron et al are not minded to ask us to stay. Quite frankly the UK leaving removes a headache for Federalists in that we would always be unhappy with further integration.Barnesian said:
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.0 -
I was somewhat astonished at the previous thread of some Londoners sneering at the idea of community. I also dislike the sneering at Londoners as being a cesspit. Our national community has clearly been coming apart for a long time before Brexit and we need a focus on restitching it for many years to come.david_herdson said:
The sneering metropolitan elite - which includes Adonis: speaking on behalf of the 16%. But as in their minds, they're the only ones who count, 16 is greater than 84.Elliot said:
This polling is a helpful reminder that most Remainers are not the spiteful types that think anyone that disagrees with them is a racist yokel.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
Once the information Mr. Papadopoulos had disclosed to the Australian diplomat reached the F.B.I., the bureau opened an investigation that became one of its most closely guarded secrets. Senior agents did not discuss it at the daily morning briefing, a classified setting where officials normally speak freely about highly sensitive operations.
Besides the information from the Australians, the investigation was also propelled by intelligence from other friendly governments, including the British and Dutch.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/30/us/politics/how-fbi-russia-investigation-began-george-papadopoulos.html0 -
The usual French position is to keep the British in, but without influence. I don't see Macron deviating from that. The two tier system whereby France and Germany control the inner ring, and the UK and others in the outer ring gets sucked in later worked quite well.RobD said:
How much of this is actually based on what he will do, as opposed to what the author hopes he will do? Macron wants to get on with more integration, getting the UK out makes that a lot easier.Barnesian said:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/30/macron-2018-brexit-french-president-europe-leaving-eu?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=258616&subid=12968901&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2Philip_Thompson said:
Macron et al are not minded to ask us to stay. Quite frankly the UK leaving removes a headache for Federalists in that we would always be unhappy with further integration.Barnesian said:
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.0 -
Is there a prize for guessing who you might mean?Elliot said:
This polling is a helpful reminder that most Remainers are not the spiteful types that think anyone that disagrees with them is a racist yokel.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
Corporate debt has come down meaningfully.Elliot said:
It was my understanding that both corporate debt and household debt had come down as a share of GDP since 2007. I understand government debt has climbed, but the growth has reduced and is about to turn negative (in GDP terms).rcs1000 said:
How good a predictor of future economic performance are stock prices? (I ask in all seriousness.)Elliot said:
I'm told we are definitely hitting an economic catastrophe and that alone is reason to overrule democracy. Never mind the 5% unemployment and record stock prices.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-42512023
But the future economic indicators for the UK are flashing at least yellow, and possibly red. Worse, politicians are so determined to avoid any risk of a Brexit slowdown that they are allowing inbalances to grow. This means that when the inevitable recession comes, it will likely be extremely painful.
Isn't it also the case that a lot of this is the flip side of foreigners wanting to invest in the UK?
But net household indebtedness, despite improving significantly between 2010 and 2014, has not. Between the end of Q2 2014 (it's post crisis low) and Q2 2017 (the latest numbers we have available), unsecured personal debt has increased 25%. As a percentage of income, we're now only just below the levels of 2007.
I think the OECD gross savings rate data makes the point that we are spending above our means: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS?year_high_desc=true
The good news is we're ahead of Greece (just). But we're miles behind everyone else, and our rate has continued to fall and to fall and to fall.0 -
The only way an intervention by Macron could stop Brexit would be a massive move on FOM and even then I suspect the die is now cast.Barnesian said:
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.0 -
Except the UK will veto any big pushes for integration, so it suits his interests not to do anything to stop Brexit.Elliot said:
The usual French position is to keep the British in, but without influence. I don't see Macron deviating from that. The two tier system whereby France and Germany control the inner ring, and the UK and others in the outer ring gets sucked in later worked quite well.RobD said:
How much of this is actually based on what he will do, as opposed to what the author hopes he will do? Macron wants to get on with more integration, getting the UK out makes that a lot easier.Barnesian said:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/30/macron-2018-brexit-french-president-europe-leaving-eu?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=258616&subid=12968901&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2Philip_Thompson said:
Macron et al are not minded to ask us to stay. Quite frankly the UK leaving removes a headache for Federalists in that we would always be unhappy with further integration.Barnesian said:
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.0 -
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/946788932750102528IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
Voodoo poll. Shame on youwilliamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/946788932750102528IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
0 -
Voodoo poll.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/946788932750102528IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
Desperate, much?
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/9471540546350530560 -
Surprised No percentage was so high.RobD said:
Voodoo poll. Shame on youwilliamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/946788932750102528IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
Until it fell disastrously apart, with the departure of the second largest contributor to the whole shebang.....Elliot said:
The usual French position is to keep the British in, but without influence. I don't see Macron deviating from that. The two tier system whereby France and Germany control the inner ring, and the UK and others in the outer ring gets sucked in later worked quite well.RobD said:
How much of this is actually based on what he will do, as opposed to what the author hopes he will do? Macron wants to get on with more integration, getting the UK out makes that a lot easier.Barnesian said:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/30/macron-2018-brexit-french-president-europe-leaving-eu?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=258616&subid=12968901&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2Philip_Thompson said:
Macron et al are not minded to ask us to stay. Quite frankly the UK leaving removes a headache for Federalists in that we would always be unhappy with further integration.Barnesian said:
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.0 -
Lol - there's nothing like a good poll and that is nothing like a good poll.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/946788932750102528IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
Will be interested to see his lordship's real poll....CarlottaVance said:
Voodoo poll.williamglenn said:
twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/946788932750102528IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
Desperate, much?
twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/947154054635053056
0 -
I think Mr Glenn mistakes Twitter for the real world....a bit like Lord Adonis......RobD said:
Voodoo poll. Shame on youwilliamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/946788932750102528IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
And then there's his electorate.....RobD said:
Except the UK will veto any big pushes for integration, so it suits his interests not to do anything to stop Brexit.Elliot said:
The usual French position is to keep the British in, but without influence. I don't see Macron deviating from that. The two tier system whereby France and Germany control the inner ring, and the UK and others in the outer ring gets sucked in later worked quite well.RobD said:
How much of this is actually based on what he will do, as opposed to what the author hopes he will do? Macron wants to get on with more integration, getting the UK out makes that a lot easier.Barnesian said:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/30/macron-2018-brexit-french-president-europe-leaving-eu?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=258616&subid=12968901&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2Philip_Thompson said:
Macron et al are not minded to ask us to stay. Quite frankly the UK leaving removes a headache for Federalists in that we would always be unhappy with further integration.Barnesian said:
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/9466696446219960340 -
Prefer Britain to stay in EU (net):CarlottaVance said:
And then there's his electorate.....RobD said:
Except the UK will veto any big pushes for integration, so it suits his interests not to do anything to stop Brexit.Elliot said:
The usual French position is to keep the British in, but without influence. I don't see Macron deviating from that. The two tier system whereby France and Germany control the inner ring, and the UK and others in the outer ring gets sucked in later worked quite well.RobD said:
How much of this is actually based on what he will do, as opposed to what the author hopes he will do? Macron wants to get on with more integration, getting the UK out makes that a lot easier.Barnesian said:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/30/macron-2018-brexit-french-president-europe-leaving-eu?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=258616&subid=12968901&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2Philip_Thompson said:
Macron et al are not minded to ask us to stay. Quite frankly the UK leaving removes a headache for Federalists in that we would always be unhappy with further integration.Barnesian said:
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946669644621996034
Denmark: +47
Sweden: +41
Germany: +34
Finland: +31
France: +1
0 -
Sadly I may have spannahed DrFuaxSuks team: Sorry. Some good-news from the Al-Beeb sport archives though: The Belgae are finally being shown the red-card!
0 -
This is a typical example of how a lot of people think about this subject. It is logical, well based on evidence and seems to make sense. Why would a government risk halting or reversing Brexit given how well supported it is, and even if support were to drop a bit more?Elliot said:
Even if support among Remainers doubled, you would still only have 40% of the population, when realistically you need 65%+ for politicians to be willing to overturn the result, or even run another referendum. Cabinet ministers or unelected Lords blocking it would likely be seen badly by the public, and I doubt FTA negotiation details are the sort of thing that preoccupy the British public too much.Barnesian said:
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.
The bump in Brexit support after the interim deal actually suggests there is a bigger latent majority for Brexit, which is held down by them thinking the negotiations are being screwed up.
The trouble is that EU membership isn't a trivial side issue. Just about any national policy you care to mention is affected one way or another by what is happening elsewhere on the continent we live on. Giving up our influence might not sound too drastic in the abstract. When it gets down to specific cases it will look a lot less sensible.
0 -
He always was a total [INAPPROPRIATE WORD FOR SEXUAL ACTS OF A SOLO NATURE].rcs1000 said:
Apparently Osborne is totally addicted to the Sidebar of Shame.FrancisUrquhart said:There is speculation in the Tory party that he wants to become mayor of London, and Standard sources also believe that when he joined the paper he had the mayoralty "at the back of his mind". It would be a familiar tactic: Boris Johnson used his editorship of the Spectator to launch a successful City Hall bid in 2008. The conjecture is that Sadiq Khan will win again in 2020, after which Osborne could use six years in charge of London's paper to mount a challenge. And, after that, who's to say he won't springboard back to the national level again?
Sceptics will argue that Osborne now has too much bad blood with former colleagues, that the editor of a newspaper won't ever make it to Number Ten. But in an era when a reality TV star can become president of the US, anything is possible. And if the political comeback doesn't work, he's always got his media career. There are even whispers that there's one other newspaper he would like to run, a paper where he reportedly once spent an evening after the 2010 election sitting on the editorial "backbench" alongside its editor, Paul Dacre. That's right: the Daily Mail.
http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/george-osborne-westminster-comeback
0 -
Top trolling from Ashcroft, and proof if it were needed that Twitter is an echo chamber of political opinion.CarlottaVance said:
Voodoo poll.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/946788932750102528IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
Desperate, much?
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/9471540546350530560 -
On Topic. Local Byelections.
For The Libdems it was a Year of 3 halves :
a slow rise to around 20% in April
a collapse to 8% in early July
& a rapid rise to maybe 21% now.
I make no predictions as to what happens next.0 -
If 2017 and indeed 2016 should have taught us anything, it is that only a fool makes predictions.paulbarker said:On Topic. Local Byelections.
For The Libdems it was a Year of 3 halves :
a slow rise to around 20% in April
a collapse to 8% in early July
& a rapid rise to maybe 21% now.
I make no predictions as to what happens next.0 -
-
Has the good lord gone a bit silly? How the hell is anything about such a twitter poll 'notable'?CarlottaVance said:
Voodoo poll.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/946788932750102528IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
Desperate, much?
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/9471540546350530560 -
Indeed - all outcomes are possible, without enough political will on many sides (and which would require popular will to give them them political will) but it it a convoluted and complicated path to get there, quite frankly.rcs1000 said:
The only thing that would cause a tipping point would be if a large number of people felt their prosperity was newly imperilled by Brexit.Barnesian said:
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.
Is that possible? Yes.
Is that - despite all my negativity about the British economy - likely? No.0 -
Maybe politicians should have courage of their convictions and try leading debates rather than merely responding to them. If nothing else, if they actually want to go down that path, relying on the public to get to that point without such leadership is very risky.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
It seems that Adonis accepts that Brexit cannot be stopped or changed, and is preparing the ground for the longer struggle. Far from being a call to arms against Brexit, it could be that Adonis’s resignation marks the moment the ultra-Remainers admit defeat in this war and start to prepare to fight the next one.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/andrew-adonis-theresa-may-eu-resignation-rejoin-brexit-a8134671.html0 -
I suspect the good lord has given Twitter 'enough rope'.....kle4 said:
Has the good lord gone a bit silly? How the hell is anything about such a twitter poll 'notable'?CarlottaVance said:
Voodoo poll.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/946788932750102528IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
Desperate, much?
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/9471540546350530560 -
I'm always suspicious of polls quoted to prove a point where the full question and range of answers isn't stated. I suspect here that there were four or more options, with "2nd referendum" being at one extreme.RobD said:
Some of those numbers are surprisingly low.CarlottaVance said:
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/9464634394378772480 -
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j689my8z0m/TheChallenge_Nov17_Results_w.pdfNickPalmer said:
I'm always suspicious of polls quoted to prove a point where the full question and range of answers isn't stated. I suspect here that there were four or more options, with "2nd referendum" being at one extreme.RobD said:
Some of those numbers are surprisingly low.CarlottaVance said:
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248
Helpfully 2nd vote / abandon Brexit entirely got about the same number of responses, so you can double the numbers if you want a full picture of "no Brexit"0 -
Hook, line and sinker there from Mr GlennRobD said:
Voodoo poll. Shame on youwilliamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/946788932750102528IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425 0 -
Global embassies cut to pay for more diplomats in the EU.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/asian-embassies-cut-by-boris-johnson-to-fund-eu-diplomats-gl72m0gh70 -
Huh. Thought so.TheWhiteRabbit said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j689my8z0m/TheChallenge_Nov17_Results_w.pdfNickPalmer said:
I'm always suspicious of polls quoted to prove a point where the full question and range of answers isn't stated. I suspect here that there were four or more options, with "2nd referendum" being at one extreme.RobD said:
Some of those numbers are surprisingly low.CarlottaVance said:
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248
Helpfully 2nd vote / abandon Brexit entirely got about the same number of responses, so you can double the numbers if you want a full picture of "no Brexit"
Edit: some of the other results show a worryingly stark generational gap. Two nations, really.0 -
not sure it changes the point though - it is still a minority viewNickPalmer said:
Huh. Thought so.TheWhiteRabbit said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j689my8z0m/TheChallenge_Nov17_Results_w.pdfNickPalmer said:
I'm always suspicious of polls quoted to prove a point where the full question and range of answers isn't stated. I suspect here that there were four or more options, with "2nd referendum" being at one extreme.RobD said:
Some of those numbers are surprisingly low.CarlottaVance said:
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248
Helpfully 2nd vote / abandon Brexit entirely got about the same number of responses, so you can double the numbers if you want a full picture of "no Brexit"0 -
As are the LibDems.kle4 said:
Maybe politicians should have courage of their convictions and try leading debates rather than merely responding to them. If nothing else, if they actually want to go down that path, relying on the public to get to that point without such leadership is very risky.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/9471225610029834250 -
If the public does turn against, the LDs deserve to be the ones who benefit, since they have been pretty clear where they stand (not entirely, there was confusion about remain/rejoin post referendum). But other factors in who benefits most in a two party system will always count against them there.IanB2 said:
As are the LibDems.kle4 said:
Maybe politicians should have courage of their convictions and try leading debates rather than merely responding to them. If nothing else, if they actually want to go down that path, relying on the public to get to that point without such leadership is very risky.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
It'll work itself out over time, I'm not worried.NickPalmer said:
Huh. Thought so.TheWhiteRabbit said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j689my8z0m/TheChallenge_Nov17_Results_w.pdfNickPalmer said:
I'm always suspicious of polls quoted to prove a point where the full question and range of answers isn't stated. I suspect here that there were four or more options, with "2nd referendum" being at one extreme.RobD said:
Some of those numbers are surprisingly low.CarlottaVance said:
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248
Helpfully 2nd vote / abandon Brexit entirely got about the same number of responses, so you can double the numbers if you want a full picture of "no Brexit"
Edit: some of the other results show a worryingly stark generational gap. Two nations, really.0 -
Ukip's fave race-war theorist happy that UK is still Brexiting. Yes, but he'll get no part in making what happens after it.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Unless people's views change as they get older......kle4 said:
If the public does turn against, the LDs deserve to be the ones who benefit, since they have been pretty clear where they stand (not entirely, there was confusion about remain/rejoin post referendum). But other factors in who benefits most in a two party system will always count against them there.IanB2 said:
As are the LibDems.kle4 said:
Maybe politicians should have courage of their convictions and try leading debates rather than merely responding to them. If nothing else, if they actually want to go down that path, relying on the public to get to that point without such leadership is very risky.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
It'll work itself out over time, I'm not worried.NickPalmer said:
Huh. Thought so.TheWhiteRabbit said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j689my8z0m/TheChallenge_Nov17_Results_w.pdfNickPalmer said:
I'm always suspicious of polls quoted to prove a point where the full question and range of answers isn't stated. I suspect here that there were four or more options, with "2nd referendum" being at one extreme.RobD said:
Some of those numbers are surprisingly low.CarlottaVance said:
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248
Helpfully 2nd vote / abandon Brexit entirely got about the same number of responses, so you can double the numbers if you want a full picture of "no Brexit"
Edit: some of the other results show a worryingly stark generational gap. Two nations, really.0 -
Unless unless the housing market remains closed to them despite advancing age...CarlottaVance said:
Unless people's views change as they get older......kle4 said:
If the public does turn against, the LDs deserve to be the ones who benefit, since they have been pretty clear where they stand (not entirely, there was confusion about remain/rejoin post referendum). But other factors in who benefits most in a two party system will always count against them there.IanB2 said:
As are the LibDems.kle4 said:
Maybe politicians should have courage of their convictions and try leading debates rather than merely responding to them. If nothing else, if they actually want to go down that path, relying on the public to get to that point without such leadership is very risky.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
It'll work itself out over time, I'm not worried.NickPalmer said:
Huh. Thought so.TheWhiteRabbit said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j689my8z0m/TheChallenge_Nov17_Results_w.pdfNickPalmer said:
I'm always suspicious of polls quoted to prove a point where the full question and range of answers isn't stated. I suspect here that there were four or more options, with "2nd referendum" being at one extreme.RobD said:
Some of those numbers are surprisingly low.CarlottaVance said:
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248
Helpfully 2nd vote / abandon Brexit entirely got about the same number of responses, so you can double the numbers if you want a full picture of "no Brexit"
Edit: some of the other results show a worryingly stark generational gap. Two nations, really.0 -
https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.0 -
I accidentally clicked on your site (linked to on the right);NickPalmer said:
Huh. Thought so.TheWhiteRabbit said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j689my8z0m/TheChallenge_Nov17_Results_w.pdfNickPalmer said:
I'm always suspicious of polls quoted to prove a point where the full question and range of answers isn't stated. I suspect here that there were four or more options, with "2nd referendum" being at one extreme.RobD said:
Some of those numbers are surprisingly low.CarlottaVance said:
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248
Helpfully 2nd vote / abandon Brexit entirely got about the same number of responses, so you can double the numbers if you want a full picture of "no Brexit"
Edit: some of the other results show a worryingly stark generational gap. Two nations, really.
http://www.nickpalmer.org.uk/
"This Account Has Been Suspended.
Please contact the billing/support department as soon as possible."0 -
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.
Government needs people who can offer solutions to problems, any idiot can point out the problems themselves.0 -
It's risky to make predictions, especially about the futureydoethur said:
If 2017 and indeed 2016 should have taught us anything, it is that only a fool makes predictions.paulbarker said:On Topic. Local Byelections.
For The Libdems it was a Year of 3 halves :
a slow rise to around 20% in April
a collapse to 8% in early July
& a rapid rise to maybe 21% now.
I make no predictions as to what happens next.0 -
Shake the money tree, free money for millennials. People who have worked all their lives should have their money confiscated and have it given to whinging whining millennial clowns who would not know a days hard work if it slapped them on the face, poor diddums they deserve it. Lazy gits want to get out and start grafting , earn their keep rather than whinge about people who have spent 50 years toiling to get where they are.Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.0 -
Wow.Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.
Sir, I salute the most awesome post in the history of trolling.
That's even better than my suggestion that Labour should bring back Blair.0 -
The big, unacknowledged, problem is that we're addicted to the Bank of Bricks and Mortar.Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.
Let's say we increase supply through more building, lower demand by cutting immigration, and therefore reduce the price of housing by 30%. This makes it much easier for millennials to end up home owners, which is good.
But it also results in dramatically lower labour mobility, as people with negative equity can no longer move house. It also means that people up their savings rate to compensate for no longer having as much equity in their home. This would result in a significant reduction in the level of aggregate demand, likely tipping the economy into recession.
Gordon Brown and George Osborne made a terrible mess of the UK economy. It will likely take another decade, and a Chancellor of the caliber of Howe, Lawson or Clarke, to turn it back around.0 -
Were you hibernating between ~April & ~June this year?!Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.
https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto
Page 65/66: "An ageing society" ... was a good start.0 -
The poll's not notable. The fact that Remainers took it seriously and tried hard to influence the result is interestingkle4 said:
Has the good lord gone a bit silly? How the hell is anything about such a twitter poll 'notable'?CarlottaVance said:
Voodoo poll.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/946788932750102528IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
Desperate, much?
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/9471540546350530560 -
Good to see you have mellowed a bit,pb is a civilising influence.malcolmg said:
Shake the money tree, free money for millennials. People who have worked all their lives should have their money confiscated and have it given to whinging whining millennial clowns who would not know a days hard work if it slapped them on the face, poor diddums they deserve it. Lazy gits want to get out and start grafting , earn their keep rather than whinge about people who have spent 50 years toiling to get where they are.Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.0 -
Which is one way it will work out.CarlottaVance said:
Unless people's views change as they get older......kle4 said:
If the public does turn against, the LDs deserve to be the ones who benefit, since they have been pretty clear where they stand (not entirely, there was confusion about remain/rejoin post referendum). But other factors in who benefits most in a two party system will always count against them there.IanB2 said:
As are the LibDems.kle4 said:
Maybe politicians should have courage of their convictions and try leading debates rather than merely responding to them. If nothing else, if they actually want to go down that path, relying on the public to get to that point without such leadership is very risky.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
It'll work itself out over time, I'm not worried.NickPalmer said:
Huh. Thought so.TheWhiteRabbit said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j689my8z0m/TheChallenge_Nov17_Results_w.pdfNickPalmer said:
I'm always suspicious of polls quoted to prove a point where the full question and range of answers isn't stated. I suspect here that there were four or more options, with "2nd referendum" being at one extreme.RobD said:
Some of those numbers are surprisingly low.CarlottaVance said:
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248
Helpfully 2nd vote / abandon Brexit entirely got about the same number of responses, so you can double the numbers if you want a full picture of "no Brexit"
Edit: some of the other results show a worryingly stark generational gap. Two nations, really.0 -
I disagree, there has already been ample evidence of how movements on twitter are not significant, that some group tried hard to influence something on it doesn't strike me as notable anymore than the poll itself.Charles said:
The poll's not notable. The fact that Remainers took it seriously and tried hard to influence the result is interestingkle4 said:
Has the good lord gone a bit silly? How the hell is anything about such a twitter poll 'notable'?CarlottaVance said:
Voodoo poll.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/946788932750102528IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
Desperate, much?
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/9471540546350530560 -
Agree entirely. The other issue is that demand for housing is closely correlated with supply and demand of mortgage finance. As soon as house prices start to fall banks will want higher deposits which will cause further price falls as demand dries up. It could take a fair few years for that situation to normalise, during and after which time, as you say, there will be huge problems of negative equity - as was seen in the early 1990s.rcs1000 said:
The big, unacknowledged, problem is that we're addicted to the Bank of Bricks and Mortar.Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.
Let's say we increase supply through more building, lower demand by cutting immigration, and therefore reduce the price of housing by 30%. This makes it much easier for millennials to end up home owners, which is good.
But it also results in dramatically lower labour mobility, as people with negative equity can no longer move house. It also means that people up their savings rate to compensate for no longer having as much equity in their home. This would result in a significant reduction in the level of aggregate demand, likely tipping the economy into recession.
Gordon Brown and George Osborne made a terrible mess of the UK economy. It will likely take another decade, and a Chancellor of the caliber of Howe, Lawson or Clarke, to turn it back around.0 -
Malcolm is by far one of the most interesting posters on PB. It takes a very long time studying his comments to work out what his political position is* and I get the impression it is a very long way from what most people seem to think.jayfdee said:
Good to see you have mellowed a bit,pb is a civilising influence.malcolmg said:
Shake the money tree, free money for millennials. People who have worked all their lives should have their money confiscated and have it given to whinging whining millennial clowns who would not know a days hard work if it slapped them on the face, poor diddums they deserve it. Lazy gits want to get out and start grafting , earn their keep rather than whinge about people who have spent 50 years toiling to get where they are.Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.
*I don't claim to have succeeded yet.0 -
Malc's a true blue PB Tory.Richard_Tyndall said:
Malcolm is by far one of the most interesting posters on PB. It takes a very long time studying his comments to work out what his political position is* and I get the impression it is a very long way from what most people seem to think.jayfdee said:
Good to see you have mellowed a bit,pb is a civilising influence.malcolmg said:
Shake the money tree, free money for millennials. People who have worked all their lives should have their money confiscated and have it given to whinging whining millennial clowns who would not know a days hard work if it slapped them on the face, poor diddums they deserve it. Lazy gits want to get out and start grafting , earn their keep rather than whinge about people who have spent 50 years toiling to get where they are.Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.
*I don't claim to have succeeded yet.
0 -
Well he definitely hates "Troughers, " and most Politicians who he regards as Troghers, SNP excused.Richard_Tyndall said:
Malcolm is by far one of the most interesting posters on PB. It takes a very long time studying his comments to work out what his political position is* and I get the impression it is a very long way from what most people seem to think.jayfdee said:
Good to see you have mellowed a bit,pb is a civilising influence.malcolmg said:
Shake the money tree, free money for millennials. People who have worked all their lives should have their money confiscated and have it given to whinging whining millennial clowns who would not know a days hard work if it slapped them on the face, poor diddums they deserve it. Lazy gits want to get out and start grafting , earn their keep rather than whinge about people who have spent 50 years toiling to get where they are.Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.
*I don't claim to have succeeded yet.0 -
Very good Malcolm. Happy New Year to youmalcolmg said:
Shake the money tree, free money for millennials. People who have worked all their lives should have their money confiscated and have it given to whinging whining millennial clowns who would not know a days hard work if it slapped them on the face, poor diddums they deserve it. Lazy gits want to get out and start grafting , earn their keep rather than whinge about people who have spent 50 years toiling to get where they are.Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board. 0 -
Far right nationalist would be my guess... - natural instincts are conservative, but he hates Conservatives.Richard_Tyndall said:
Malcolm is by far one of the most interesting posters on PB. It takes a very long time studying his comments to work out what his political position is* and I get the impression it is a very long way from what most people seem to think.jayfdee said:
Good to see you have mellowed a bit,pb is a civilising influence.malcolmg said:
Shake the money tree, free money for millennials. People who have worked all their lives should have their money confiscated and have it given to whinging whining millennial clowns who would not know a days hard work if it slapped them on the face, poor diddums they deserve it. Lazy gits want to get out and start grafting , earn their keep rather than whinge about people who have spent 50 years toiling to get where they are.Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.
*I don't claim to have succeeded yet.0 -
But local elections are almost totally irrelevant to national politics, and have no bearing whatsoever on general elections.0
-
Local politics is a significant state subsidy of political parties - lots of busy bodies paid a few K to spend their spare time campaigning with a couple of hours a year pointing at pot holes on the side.stevef said:But local elections are almost totally irrelevant to national politics, and have no bearing whatsoever on general elections.
0 -
Did someone say Die Hard?CarlottaVance said:
Prefer Britain to stay in EU (net):CarlottaVance said:
And then there's his electorate.....RobD said:
Except the UK will veto any big pushes for integration, so it suits his interests not to do anything to stop Brexit.Elliot said:
The usual French position is to keep the British in, but without influence. I don't see Macron deviating from that. The two tier system whereby France and Germany control the inner ring, and the UK and others in the outer ring gets sucked in later worked quite well.RobD said:
How much of this is actually based on what he will do, as opposed to what the author hopes he will do? Macron wants to get on with more integration, getting the UK out makes that a lot easier.Barnesian said:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/30/macron-2018-brexit-french-president-europe-leaving-eu?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=258616&subid=12968901&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2Philip_Thompson said:
Macron et al are not minded to ask us to stay. Quite frankly the UK leaving removes a headache for Federalists in that we would always be unhappy with further integration.Barnesian said:
I think a lot of Remainers (and sorry Leavers) think Brexit is now inevitable and are resigned to it. "Let's move on" or "Let's go for a soft Brexit". And that, of course, is how passionate Leavers want Brexit to seem - inevitable.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946463439437877248RobD said:
But will the public want one? That doesn’t look likely.IanB2 said:
Labour will call for one, once the public wants one. And not before.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
But if it ceases to seem inevitable for any reason, there will be a tipping point and sentiment could quickly change. Catalysts could be a big fallout in the Cabinet, or a major blockage by the HoL, or an intervention by Macron (please stay), or serious FTA problems.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946669644621996034
Denmark: +47
Sweden: +41
Germany: +34
Finland: +31
France: +1
Is it Christmas again already?0 -
It's a very good point: falling house prices means lower mortgage availability, and higher net interest margins.Sandpit said:
Agree entirely. The other issue is that demand for housing is closely correlated with supply and demand of mortgage finance. As soon as house prices start to fall banks will want higher deposits which will cause further price falls as demand dries up. It could take a fair few years for that situation to normalise, during and after which time, as you say, there will be huge problems of negative equity - as was seen in the early 1990s.rcs1000 said:
The big, unacknowledged, problem is that we're addicted to the Bank of Bricks and Mortar.Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.
Let's say we increase supply through more building, lower demand by cutting immigration, and therefore reduce the price of housing by 30%. This makes it much easier for millennials to end up home owners, which is good.
But it also results in dramatically lower labour mobility, as people with negative equity can no longer move house. It also means that people up their savings rate to compensate for no longer having as much equity in their home. This would result in a significant reduction in the level of aggregate demand, likely tipping the economy into recession.
Gordon Brown and George Osborne made a terrible mess of the UK economy. It will likely take another decade, and a Chancellor of the caliber of Howe, Lawson or Clarke, to turn it back around.0 -
One reason I was so angry with the coalition. The total obsession (for two or three years) with the budget deficit but nothing on the real mess in the British economy - the housing market.rcs1000 said:
Corporate debt has come down meaningfully.Elliot said:
It was my understanding that both corporate debt and household debt had come down as a share of GDP since 2007. I understand government debt has climbed, but the growth has reduced and is about to turn negative (in GDP terms).rcs1000 said:
How good a predictor of future economic performance are stock prices? (I ask in all seriousness.)Elliot said:
I'm told we are definitely hitting an economic catastrophe and that alone is reason to overrule democracy. Never mind the 5% unemployment and record stock prices.CarlottaVance said:Mr Pedley of this Parish:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/947122561002983425
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-42512023
But the future economic indicators for the UK are flashing at least yellow, and possibly red. Worse, politicians are so determined to avoid any risk of a Brexit slowdown that they are allowing inbalances to grow. This means that when the inevitable recession comes, it will likely be extremely painful.
Isn't it also the case that a lot of this is the flip side of foreigners wanting to invest in the UK?
But net household indebtedness, despite improving significantly between 2010 and 2014, has not. Between the end of Q2 2014 (it's post crisis low) and Q2 2017 (the latest numbers we have available), unsecured personal debt has increased 25%. As a percentage of income, we're now only just below the levels of 2007.
I think the OECD gross savings rate data makes the point that we are spending above our means: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS?year_high_desc=true
The good news is we're ahead of Greece (just). But we're miles behind everyone else, and our rate has continued to fall and to fall and to fall.0 -
I always wonder if those wishing house prices to fall have factored in mortgage offers being 80% LTV rather than 95%. For a first time buyer, the issues around finance are much more important than issues around the actual price of the property.rcs1000 said:
It's a very good point: falling house prices means lower mortgage availability, and higher net interest margins.Sandpit said:
Agree entirely. The other issue is that demand for housing is closely correlated with supply and demand of mortgage finance. As soon as house prices start to fall banks will want higher deposits which will cause further price falls as demand dries up. It could take a fair few years for that situation to normalise, during and after which time, as you say, there will be huge problems of negative equity - as was seen in the early 1990s.rcs1000 said:
The big, unacknowledged, problem is that we're addicted to the Bank of Bricks and Mortar.Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.
Let's say we increase supply through more building, lower demand by cutting immigration, and therefore reduce the price of housing by 30%. This makes it much easier for millennials to end up home owners, which is good.
But it also results in dramatically lower labour mobility, as people with negative equity can no longer move house. It also means that people up their savings rate to compensate for no longer having as much equity in their home. This would result in a significant reduction in the level of aggregate demand, likely tipping the economy into recession.
Gordon Brown and George Osborne made a terrible mess of the UK economy. It will likely take another decade, and a Chancellor of the caliber of Howe, Lawson or Clarke, to turn it back around.0 -
I suspect that the gradual decrease in private landlords following the recent tax changes and government announcements may significantly effect prices in certain areas.Sandpit said:
Agree entirely. The other issue is that demand for housing is closely correlated with supply and demand of mortgage finance. As soon as house prices start to fall banks will want higher deposits which will cause further price falls as demand dries up. It could take a fair few years for that situation to normalise, during and after which time, as you say, there will be huge problems of negative equity - as was seen in the early 1990s.rcs1000 said:
The big, unacknowledged, problem is that we're addicted to the Bank of Bricks and Mortar.Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.
Let's say we increase supply through more building, lower demand by cutting immigration, and therefore reduce the price of housing by 30%. This makes it much easier for millennials to end up home owners, which is good.
But it also results in dramatically lower labour mobility, as people with negative equity can no longer move house. It also means that people up their savings rate to compensate for no longer having as much equity in their home. This would result in a significant reduction in the level of aggregate demand, likely tipping the economy into recession.
Gordon Brown and George Osborne made a terrible mess of the UK economy. It will likely take another decade, and a Chancellor of the caliber of Howe, Lawson or Clarke, to turn it back around.0 -
Isn't that attitude typical of what is wrong. That what really matters is whether you are able to buy not how much debt you are taking on?Sandpit said:
I always wonder if those wishing house prices to fall have factored in mortgage offers being 80% LTV rather than 95%. For a first time buyer, the issues around finance are much more important than issues around the actual price of the property.rcs1000 said:
It's a very good point: falling house prices means lower mortgage availability, and higher net interest margins.Sandpit said:
Agree entirely. The other issue is that demand for housing is closely correlated with supply and demand of mortgage finance. As soon as house prices start to fall banks will want higher deposits which will cause further price falls as demand dries up. It could take a fair few years for that situation to normalise, during and after which time, as you say, there will be huge problems of negative equity - as was seen in the early 1990s.rcs1000 said:
The big, unacknowledged, problem is that we're addicted to the Bank of Bricks and Mortar.Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.
Let's say we increase supply through more building, lower demand by cutting immigration, and therefore reduce the price of housing by 30%. This makes it much easier for millennials to end up home owners, which is good.
But it also results in dramatically lower labour mobility, as people with negative equity can no longer move house. It also means that people up their savings rate to compensate for no longer having as much equity in their home. This would result in a significant reduction in the level of aggregate demand, likely tipping the economy into recession.
Gordon Brown and George Osborne made a terrible mess of the UK economy. It will likely take another decade, and a Chancellor of the caliber of Howe, Lawson or Clarke, to turn it back around.0 -
We've had to wait for the penultimate day of the year to see PB's best graphs of 2017. Even better than the Venn Diagram featuring Santa Claus and the Spanish Inquisition.
My local election prediction for 2018 is that the Kippers will lose every seat they are defending in May, just like last time.0 -
No. It depends upon both how much you can buy and how much you can pay.FrankBooth said:
Isn't that attitude typical of what is wrong. That what really matters is whether you are able to buy not how much debt you are taking on?Sandpit said:
I always wonder if those wishing house prices to fall have factored in mortgage offers being 80% LTV rather than 95%. For a first time buyer, the issues around finance are much more important than issues around the actual price of the property.rcs1000 said:
It's a very good point: falling house prices means lower mortgage availability, and higher net interest margins.Sandpit said:
Agree entirely. The other issue is that demand for housing is closely correlated with supply and demand of mortgage finance. As soon as house prices start to fall banks will want higher deposits which will cause further price falls as demand dries up. It could take a fair few years for that situation to normalise, during and after which time, as you say, there will be huge problems of negative equity - as was seen in the early 1990s.rcs1000 said:
The big, unacknowledged, problem is that we're addicted to the Bank of Bricks and Mortar.Sandpit said:
What is he suggesting we do about it?Pong said:https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/947118142437953542
Spot on.
The tories need to apologize to this chap and beg him to come back on board.
Let's say we increase supply through more building, lower demand by cutting immigration, and therefore reduce the price of housing by 30%. This makes it much easier for millennials to end up home owners, which is good.
But it also results in dramatically lower labour mobility, as people with negative equity can no longer move house. It also means that people up their savings rate to compensate for no longer having as much equity in their home. This would result in a significant reduction in the level of aggregate demand, likely tipping the economy into recession.
Gordon Brown and George Osborne made a terrible mess of the UK economy. It will likely take another decade, and a Chancellor of the caliber of Howe, Lawson or Clarke, to turn it back around.
I'd rather buy a house for say 200k at 3% interest than 100k at 15% interest. The money I'm losing is the interest.0
This discussion has been closed.