Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Defining Britain: who wins that battle will likely win GE2022

13»

Comments

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    @ the debate on life's priorities, everyone first and foremost always acts in their self interest, fact, even Mother Theresa and Captain Oats (he of the Antarctic).

    My wife is in Italy, and I have spent Xmas day and some other time helping out a local homeless charity here......an entirely selfish act because it makes me feel a little bit better about myself, but thankfully a selfish act that also contributes a little bit to the public good.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    Cyclefree said:



    Speak for yourself. Where I live we do know - and look out for - our neighbours. Until they died (at the ages of 98 and 99 respectively) I had a key to my neighbours’ house and regularly helped them out, as did my children. There is generally a pretty strong sense of community, a long-standing and very good local councillor and most residents have lived here a long time so, even during property booms, properties don’t get sold very frequently. And yes it’s Remainer country with most people earning well. But there are Housing Association properties too. Political views and where people are on the earnings scale don’t seem to affect how kind people are - or not.

    It varies a lot, but I think the "don't know my neighbours" is the more common experience in blocks of flats (less so where you've got rows of houses). One neighbour in my last block took the initative of asking us all to the pub round the corner - I was the only one to go or even reply. My immediate neighbour did knock on my door to save me (as he thought) when a kipper I was frying set off the building's smoke alarms. I thanked him warmly for potentially saving my life - he muttered, embarrassed, "Seemed like the right thing to do". We nodded to each other after that but I never discovered his name or anything about him, nor did he seem curious. I think a lot of Londoners want to seek out like-minded friends (which is so much easier than in a village), rather than depend on the luck of finding one next door.

    Of course, you can overdo the friendliness. In Broxtowe, I had a constituent whose husband left her for her neighbour. They all stayed on for the following decade, perpetually warring.
  • tyson said:

    A really good article....I wish all Tories were as rational as David H.

    Asking T May for a vision is akin to asking Moen to score a century and take a fifer at the final test.

    BTW...on cricket, can someone please take out Swan from TMS. He is a nasty, smarmy, arrogant little shit who would better fit becoming the next leader of UKIP........ Brexit personified in the guise of a cricket commentator....yuck.....

    I was hoping to save this for HB but well done Psycho you have earnt it:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VzakY8h5vI
  • Quincel said:

    A tad of free money available on Betfair. 1.06 on Putin to win in Russia, only 3 months to get your profit too.

    I actually don't understand this, how on earth could Putin lose? Is there really even a 3-5% chance?

    Betfair can be weird sometimes. You could still back the Democrat to win the Alabama Senate race at 1.02 *after* the votes were all counted on the day of certification.

    Putin could lose due to mortality issues. Other than that it doesn't seem plausible.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    Cyclefree said:

    If people vote Labour to stop Brexit, they are going to be sadly disappointed. Corbyn and McDonnell’s vision of society and the economy would be hampered by EU rules. They will gratefully pocket Brexit, while blaming it and the Tories for anuthing that goes wrong, and get on with implementing whatever it is they want to do. And the wailing and gnashing of teeth from some of their supporters as they get hurt will be quite something to behold.
    I suspect a great many will take the line about blaming the Tories and run with it in that scenario - its what out parties survive on years and years after their opponents were last in power, and it ignores that Labour are officially for Brexit, and not necessarily a soft one, which they have relied on quite well. Right now people think Tories are hard brexit, labour are soft brexit with some leaning to remain, and LD are remain. The truth is more complicated for all three I think - some Tories want super hard, some soft, Labour I truly am not sure, and some LDs may be in favour of super soft and then rejoin recognising its not viable at present to remain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    Quincel said:

    A tad of free money available on Betfair. 1.06 on Putin to win in Russia, only 3 months to get your profit too.

    I actually don't understand this, how on earth could Putin lose? Is there really even a 3-5% chance?

    He could die? Seems healthy enough though.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Betfair can be weird sometimes. You could still back the Democrat to win the Alabama Senate race at 1.02 *after* the votes were all counted on the day of certification.

    Putin could lose due to mortality issues. Other than that it doesn't seem plausible.
    Agreed. But what's the mortality rate for healthy men his age, especially given heads of state get top medical care etc. Surely not 5% every 3 months.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Quincel said:

    A tad of free money available on Betfair. 1.06 on Putin to win in Russia, only 3 months to get your profit too.

    I actually don't understand this, how on earth could Putin lose? Is there really even a 3-5% chance?

    The chance he falls under a bus before the election?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,427
    TGOHF said:


    Swanny is a bit marmite - but find the link to UKIP a bit tenuous- weird even.
    I’ve been given his book as a Christmas present ........WAS looking forward to reading it!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Sandpit said:

    The chance he falls under a bus before the election?
    I'd get that at 1.01 or 1.02, but he's stayed in good health for the last 20 odd years at the top. There surely isn't a 5-6% chance of it happening in the next 3 months.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    Never read them myself, but fans of the 'Alphabet mystery' novels will be sad, one that the author has sadly passed away, but also that the series is now stuck on Y!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42522100
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    Quincel said:

    A tad of free money available on Betfair. 1.06 on Putin to win in Russia, only 3 months to get your profit too.

    I actually don't understand this, how on earth could Putin lose? Is there really even a 3-5% chance?

    A special hug from a Chechen?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,028
    Charles said:

    Family
    God
    Queen
    Country
    Alf Garnett wouldn't disagree. He'd stand to attention while saying it.
  • Rebourne_FluffyRebourne_Fluffy Posts: 225
    edited December 2017

    SNIPPED:

    Sorry, but this looks very creepy!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VY98T36ZC60&feature=youtu.be&t=151

    Sadly Vanilla support for &t=Xxx is pants so look from 2:30 in the video (and is that the Rudd to PP's right)?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    stevef said:

    I say this as a lifelong Labour supporter. Politics is not just about ideas, its about the people with the ideas. Most people I believe would love to get rid of the Tories and do not subscribe to their ugly concept of society. But people also have a tendency to cling to nurse for fear of finding something worse, and this I believe is why the Tories are safe in power as long as Corbyn and his fanatics control the Labour Party. Most people in those crucial marginal constituencies in middle England would like to see a fairer more equal society but shrink away in repulsion from the Marxist extremism of Corbyn and McDonnell and their army of chanting Cult of personality "Oh Jeremy Corbyn" fanatics.

    As that well known leftie George Orwell might say, "Yes make the farm a fairer more equal society but beware in your quest for equality that you do not deliver the farm to the pigs."

    I think everyone agrees with you apart from the voters.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,427
    Quincel said:

    Agreed. But what's the mortality rate for healthy men his age, especially given heads of state get top medical care etc. Surely not 5% every 3 months.
    The ‘nostalgia’ vote in Russia is for the Communists.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    malcolmg said:

    The south is not London though, but more and more of it being drawn in by the cesspit.
    I meant south London where I lived for 35 years.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    TGOHF said:


    Swanny is a bit marmite - but find the link to UKIP a bit tenuous- weird even.
    Swan is a small minded English nationalist who likes to lord it over others. His comments on Moen the other night were utterly nasty and extremely personal....and I don't know if he would be quite as ruthless against a good white Englishman who was experiencing a similar loss of form. The TMS crowd have always been an agreeable and pleasant group...until Swan steps in...I'm hoping Tuffnell returns for the last test.
  • felix said:

    I meant south London where I lived for 35 years.

    Please define Sarf-Luhndahn. If it is not in historical-Kent then it is West London (as you should know)! :)

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    Quincel said:

    I'd get that at 1.01 or 1.02, but he's stayed in good health for the last 20 odd years at the top. There surely isn't a 5-6% chance of it happening in the next 3 months.
    there were rumours circulating about a year or so ago that Putin was going to step aside because of ill health...

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Betfair can be weird sometimes. You could still back the Democrat to win the Alabama Senate race at 1.02 *after* the votes were all counted on the day of certification.

    Putin could lose due to mortality issues. Other than that it doesn't seem plausible.
    I did once contemplate the idea that it might be possible to double one’s money in a year, by only betting on such ‘dead cert’ events at 1.01 and 1.02. You’d need 70 straight winners at 1.01 (35 at 1.02) to double through, with one loser sending you bankrupt, so would need one bet a week on average - and nerves of steel.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129
    Sandpit said:

    That does raise an interesting question in the aftermath of the Damian Green resignation - who is the Theresa-under-a-bus next PM? Hammond or Davis?
    Surely Hammond would be the caretaker at least if May died. He's the most senior figure in the government after May.

    It is worth remembering that in the Tory party, unlike Labour or the Liberal Democrats, the leader on resigning stays in place until a replacement is elected. They can however nominate somebody to deputise for them if they wish as Eden (Butler) and Heath (Carr) did.

    Only in the event of death would things be different, and no Tory leader has died in office since 1881 (although Neville Chamberlain, Bonar Law and Lord Salisbury all had near squeaks of it).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Why should the monarch be ahead of country?

    Surely even the monarch herself views duty to the country to be ahead of herself.
    It's largely theoretical but the Queen represents the Country vs the country's political leadership. In a forced choice she takes precedence over them
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    tyson said:

    there were rumours circulating about a year or so ago that Putin was going to step aside because of ill health...

    I think before he announced he was standing the odds should have considered this, but he clearly feels up to it - only ill health preventing him could be an issue. He won't 'let' ill health get in the way.
  • Point of order on Graeme Swann - he was and is unequivocally opposed to Brexit:
    https://twitter.com/swannyg66/status/872941789711392769
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129
    tyson said:

    Swan is a small minded English nationalist who likes to lord it over others. His comments on Moen the other night were utterly nasty and extremely personal....and I don't know if he would be quite as ruthless against a good white Englishman who was experiencing a similar loss of form. The TMS crowd have always been an agreeable and pleasant group...until Swan steps in...I'm hoping Tuffnell returns for the last test.
    Although Moeen has not been at his best I'm thinking Tuffers is probably a bit past it these days.

    (PS it's 'Swann'.)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tyson said:

    Swan is a small minded English nationalist who likes to lord it over others. His comments on Moen the other night were utterly nasty and extremely personal....and I don't know if he would be quite as ruthless against a good white Englishman who was experiencing a similar loss of form. The TMS crowd have always been an agreeable and pleasant group...until Swan steps in...I'm hoping Tuffnell returns for the last test.
    How were they personal ? I genuinely doubt they were.
  • Point of order on Graeme Swann - he was and is unequivocally opposed to Brexit:
    https://twitter.com/swannyg66/status/872941789711392769

    Never let facts get in the way of an ill-informed rant....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,139
    edited December 2017
    kle4 said:

    Never read them myself, but fans of the 'Alphabet mystery' novels will be sad, one that the author has sadly passed away, but also that the series is now stuck on Y!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42522100

    I'm a fan, a good upholder of the Californian gumshoe tradition.

    If she hasn't already prepared the bones of Z, it'll be ripe for ghostwriting; she has a lot of admirers amongst other crime writers.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Barnesian said:

    Alf Garnett wouldn't disagree. He'd stand to attention while saying it.
    Do you realise how snobbish that sounds?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I'm a fan, a good upholder of the Californian gumshoe tradition.

    If she hasn't already prepared the bones of Z, it'll be ripe for ghostwriting; she has a lot of admirers amongst other crime writers.
    The family says no (according to your article)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    edited December 2017

    Point of order on Graeme Swann - he was and is unequivocally opposed to Brexit:
    https://twitter.com/swannyg66/status/872941789711392769

    So he's a potential LD I guess, on that statement.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121

    Point of order on Graeme Swann - he was and is unequivocally opposed to Brexit:
    https://twitter.com/swannyg66/status/872941789711392769

    Well that is a surprise...

    It was his attack on Moen two nights ago that infuriated me....it was particularly personal. But then I have just googled Swann (thanks someone for the name correction) and Moen and found an article written by Swann about Moen, and his hopes that Moen would become the great hope for English cricket.

    So apologies to jumping to conclusions on Swann....that said, he shouldn't get so personal about players who are having a rough time.
  • ydoethur said:

    Surely Hammond would be the caretaker at least if May died. He's the most senior figure in the government after May.

    It is worth remembering that in the Tory party, unlike Labour or the Liberal Democrats, the leader on resigning stays in place until a replacement is elected. They can however nominate somebody to deputise for them if they wish as Eden (Butler) and Heath (Carr) did.

    Only in the event of death would things be different, and no Tory leader has died in office since 1881 (although Neville Chamberlain, Bonar Law and Lord Salisbury all had near squeaks of it).
    Churchill can be added to the list; he had a serious stroke while Prime Minister in 1953. Luckily it was in the summer recess, and unluckily, his deputy Anthony Eden was himself under the knife in America. See the ITV drama, Churchill's Secret.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    edited December 2017
    tyson said:

    Well that is a surprise...

    It was his attack on Moen two nights ago that infuriated me....it was particularly personal. But then I have just googled Swann (thanks someone for the name correction) and Moen and found an article written by Swann about Moen, and his hopes that Moen would become the great hope for English cricket.

    So apologies to jumping to conclusions on Swann....that said, he shouldn't get so personal about players who are having a rough time.
    Not only are all leavers xenophobic racist nationalists, some remainers are too. :p
  • Getting personal is easy: Admitting when you are wrong is Cathartic. You are a better poster than you posts suggest: Hence we all take the pish! :smiley::blush::cold_sweat::tired_face::hushed:
  • tyson said:

    Well that is a surprise...

    It was his attack on Moen two nights ago that infuriated me....it was particularly personal. But then I have just googled Swann (thanks someone for the name correction) and Moen and found an article written by Swann about Moen, and his hopes that Moen would become the great hope for English cricket.

    So apologies to jumping to conclusions on Swann....that said, he shouldn't get so personal about players who are having a rough time.

    Swann’s basic problem is that he is not a great communicator. Shane Warne provides really insightful analysis, whereas Swanny struggles to take viewers inside a game. Aussie ex-players generally seem to be better at it than English ones, though Mike Atherton is a shining exception. But the king of them all is Michael Holding.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,427
    tyson said:

    Well that is a surprise...

    It was his attack on Moen two nights ago that infuriated me....it was particularly personal. But then I have just googled Swann (thanks someone for the name correction) and Moen and found an article written by Swann about Moen, and his hopes that Moen would become the great hope for English cricket.

    So apologies to jumping to conclusions on Swann....that said, he shouldn't get so personal about players who are having a rough time.
    I’ll go a settle down with his book now with a clear conscience!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    edited December 2017

    Please define Sarf-Luhndahn. If it is not in historical-Kent then it is West London (as you should know)! :)

    Many years since Balham and Tooting had much Kentish connections and even Catford was very London during my time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129

    Churchill can be added to the list; he had a serious stroke while Prime Minister in 1953. Luckily it was in the summer recess, and unluckily, his deputy Anthony Eden was himself under the knife in America. See the ITV drama, Churchill's Secret.
    I thought about adding Churchill (that was actually his second stroke as party leader - he had one in 1949 as well). But the fact remains he did survive it and lived for many years after. Chamberlain and Bonar Law were both dying when they left office, and in the case of Salisbury, although he was not strictly speaking ill the problems that would kill him were apparent.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,427
    edited December 2017

    Swann’s basic problem is that he is not a great communicator. Shane Warne provides really insightful analysis, whereas Swanny struggles to take viewers inside a game. Aussie ex-players generally seem to be better at it than English ones, though Mike Atherton is a shining exception. But the king of them all is Michael Holding.

    Indeed.I’ll never forget his remark when Windies were doing particularly badly, that he would go and live in Sweden. Why, he was asked. ‘Because, replied the great man ‘They don’t play cricket there!'
  • Rebourne_FluffyRebourne_Fluffy Posts: 225
    edited December 2017
    felix said:

    Many years since Balham and Tooting had much Kentish connections and even Catford was very London during my time.
    Catford makes you acceptable. Balham and Tooting are Surrey (or Middlesex or a-n-other Wessex colony). :)

    HIstoric Kent:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kent_Administrative_Map_1832.png
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Catford makes you acceptable. Balham and Tooting are Surrey (or Middlesex or a-n-other Wessex colony). :)

    Middlesbrough was always north of the river surely?
  • Rebourne_FluffyRebourne_Fluffy Posts: 225
    edited December 2017
    Teddinton-lock?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magpie_(TV_series)

    Also SW numbers show no respect: Sarf my donkey-horse hybrid.

    Map:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/59/Map_of_Middlesex.jpg

    Most appears to have been swamped by Essex. How cruel a fate.* :(

    * Like Ayshire without subsidised Buckie...!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    felix said:

    Middlesbrough was always north of the river surely?
    oops - that should read Middlesex!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Absolutely. Well done to Professor Sir John on a lifetime’s work. Last three exit polls pretty much spot on.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Sandpit said:

    That does raise an interesting question in the aftermath of the Damian Green resignation - who is the Theresa-under-a-bus next PM? Hammond or Davis?
    Lord Howard or Lord Hague I should imagine.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    kle4 said:

    So he's a potential LD I guess, on that statement.
    If Brexit is a disaster, there will be a lot of them about.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    IanB2 said:

    If Brexit is a disaster, there will be a lot of them about.
    More likely Labour will have switched back to remain if that is so, and they will reap the rewards rather than the LDs.
  • EPG said:

    Lord Howard or Lord Hague I should imagine.
    No-one from the Lords; probably Hammond, the former Foreign Secretary and current Chancellor who is not associated with screwing up Brexit (from whichever side).
  • Swann’s basic problem is that he is not a great communicator. Shane Warne provides really insightful analysis, whereas Swanny struggles to take viewers inside a game. Aussie ex-players generally seem to be better at it than English ones, though Mike Atherton is a shining exception. But the king of them all is Michael Holding.

    Although Atherton’s defence of Cook in the Times was far, far, too enthusiastic. One score, too late to be anything other than personally useful. As for a return to form, let’s see following the next, say, 5 tests.
  • Off-topic:

    The Burmese have - historically - been one of the most racist and bigotted thugs the British have encountered. They may now be protected by China, but in five years time; I wonder....

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/stories-42180053/i-just-want-to-see-my-mum
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Well my conclusion from talking to younger and older family members over Christmas is that the Tories are doing pretty well with the oldies. Whatever they do they don't want to make any changes that upset that bit of the apple cart. And Labour has really caught the imagination of the young in a way I find hard to understand. It isn't superficial either. They seem to be really interested and very well informed.

    I might be observing unrepresentative individuals of course. But at least it isn't based on opinion polls so it has a chance of being right.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972

    Well my conclusion from talking to younger and older family members over Christmas is that the Tories are doing pretty well with the oldies. Whatever they do they don't want to make any changes that upset that bit of the apple cart. And Labour has really caught the imagination of the young in a way I find hard to understand. It isn't superficial either. They seem to be really interested and very well informed.

    I might be observing unrepresentative individuals of course. But at least it isn't based on opinion polls so it has a chance of being right.

    Agree. To have politics so polarised according to age is extremely unhealthy. Meanwhile...

    új téma

  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Cyclefree said:

This discussion has been closed.