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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Defining Britain: who wins that battle will likely win GE2022
By rights, the Conservative Party should have disappeared a long time ago. On the wrong side of the Reform debate before 1832, their opponents dominated the middle of the nineteenth century. That was in no small part down to divisions within the Tories but was also because the Liberals had a better vision to sell to a rapidly industrialising and urbanising Britain and to its newly enfranchised electorate. As the vote was distributed wider and wider – and hence further and further down the social scale – you’d think that a party of landed privilege would be left behind.
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https://www.alanmak.org.uk/sites/www.alanmak.org.uk/files/inline-images/4IR ConHome brochure cover jgp.jpg
He did that. WITH HIS BRAIN.
Jezzah's gonna jez, that much is obvious but if the LibDems elect a leader who is not clinically dead then the tories are going to get fucked in the sort of C220d on a lease households that JC can't reach.
I think the batting is actually OK now though
German cities introducing women safety zones for new years eve
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article172026698/Silvester-So-wollen-Staedte-Frauen-vor-Uebergriffen-schuetzen.html
One who could just spin the ball might well have made a difference. Moeen bowled 13 overs out of 120 odd in the second innings (and a similar proportion in the first). For our sole spinner on such a slow pitch, that is an absolute joke.
The team still lacks a defined shape, and their are some hard decisions to be taken over the next year... by a bunch of selectors who seem to have less idea than I do.
But as David points out, that would require a leader and a vision, neither of which seem to exist at present. It is at least a third alternative to the two he posits.
Mr. Herdson, another good article. We must hope that Jonathan Pryce's character from Game of Thrones is not truly popular [being as vague as possible to avoid spoilers].
the post - Brexit news cycle cant be any mor stacked against the govt than now - suspect it will see a modest uptick in polling fortunes whilst the reach of Corbynism is capped.
Needs dropped - permenantly.
A leader who believes in personal responsibility , self-reliance and state clearly that affuent educated ethnics,females ,gays etc are not
On substance, both main parties are now governed by nostalgia and rooted firmly in the 20th century. For the Tories its blue passports, royal yachts, Big Ben’s chimes and Britain leading the Anglosphere; for Labour its nationalisation, council housing and flying pickets. Neither has any kind of vision for the realities of the 21st century.
But the UK is a nostalgic country - or at least a large part of its population is. Things used to be better, we tell ourselves, as we watch Downton Abbey and Call the Midwife. Funnily enough, though, the politicians that have won big majorities for their parties have tended to lead, to look forward. If the Tories can find one of these before Labour does, they are likely to reap the dividends.
I have no nostalgia for that part of those days; I do though also remember the hope that was around in the early and mid 60’s. If someone could resell that, then they’d be on a winner!
It's of an organic community, in which those at the top realise that they have obligations and duties to the rest of society. They are not "citizens of nowhere" - but that means they have responsibilities: to pay their taxes, not to use crafty schemes to minimise their contribution; to invest in the workforce and local communities; to accept that as they have benefited from being in the the UK they have an obligation to pay back and pay forward.
Fundamental what has gone wrong with commerce is the exclusive focus on shareholders not stakeholders. What has gone wrong with society as s whole is the same.
It is one of the primary roles of any captain to manage a team of the best players, whatever their personalities, and make sure that they do get on. Otherwise they shouldn't be captain.
Cook never seems to be able to do this, either.
As for Crane, the selectors don't seem to have any confidence in him either - otherwise he'd have played in this test.
The Leave campaign was fought in the negative, which is a problem when you are arguing for change. (The Remain campaign was negative too, but they were arguing for the status quo, and in any case lost). To be clear with another negative, Brexit isn't about openness and more trade. If you want those you should want the UK to be in the European Union. That's the way Britain has sought out openness and more trade, which we rejected by voting to leave the EU. So a Brexit philosophy would be based on restriction, closing doors and less trade. So far no-one that I know has articulated that philosophy as a good thing. A template could be the Sakoku closed country policy of the Japanese Tokugawa period.
As a year and a half have passed without any philosophy or workable plan being developed, I doubt they ever will. Brexit will muddle along in its mediocrity. The effort will go into limiting the damage rather than developing new ideas.
Did Labour do the same from 1997 to 2010?
A society where rich bankers and lawyers accept they have a duty to pay their taxes.
A society where Londoners appreciate they need to share their wealth with the rest of the country
A society to which the successful respect their fellow citizens rather than mocking and excoriating them at every opportunity.
A society to which everyone contributes what they can and in which we all acknowledge the ties that bind us
It will show up in the battle of the FTAs, particularly with the US. You can have cheaper crap food but your jobs will be at risk. Which do you want? I think the Tories are going to lose that one.
If the penny drops early enough on the electoral poison of FTAs, the Government may downgrade them (and fire Fox). In that case, what's the problem with a customs union?
FF43 pointed it out downthread:
"So a Brexit philosophy would be based on restriction, closing doors and less trade. So far no-one that I know has articulated that philosophy as a good thing."
Sakoku was developed to deal with particular problems that Japan faced. It was somewhat successful on its own terms, unlike a similar policy in China under the Ming dynasty. My point is that Brexit doesn't have a coherent philosophy behind it. Without one it is unlikely to be successful.
Of course I'd be ever so grateful if my betters felt obligated enough to get off its collective arse and sort out the situation you describe.
More broadly but connected the challenge is to ensure that the fruits of society are shared more equally, that all of us have the life chances to make the most of our skills and productive lives. It is not easy in the face of international competition and advancing technology which threatens so many of us with redundancy but it should be the aspiration of government.
And the more fundamental problem with your vision is that it is essentially rural. Britain is an essentially urban country. 1950s Britain is not coming back.
Perhaps we are just a nation of knights and nitwits after all.
(1) Consideration of party loyalty restrict blue-skies thinking. If you come up with something interestingly different, it's by implication a criticism of the incumbents that they're not doing it. For instance, Robert Halfon's case for working-class Tory policies is muffled by the fact that he doesn't want to be nasty to the current Government.
(2) Distractions come almost every day: every time you want to make a speech (or even just think and discuss) about a new policy, there's a rail crash or a fire or a diplomatic crisis which it's imperative to respond to, and which makes discussion of anything else look like a dereliction of duty.
The main Tory hope has to be that the EU deal, which will I think emerge in the end, will look like at least a half-success, and May or an associate will get the credit for it and a mandate for a vague "Now - forward!" slogan, akin to Labour's "Now, win the peace" in 1945. The twin problems are that this is a hostage to fortune (because the deal may seem to most clearly inferior to the status quo) and the absence of any real plan may become evident.
If May is going for any reshuffle in the new year, can she clear out all the quango numpties like Adonis at the same time.
uninformed metropolitans.....
PS I should add the Chinese equivalent policy was a disaster as it encouraged smuggling and piracy. I think these policies only work if you have a highly disciplined society.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/946833643820994560
Also, Britain has been essentially urban since the latter part of the 19th century. In fact, 50s Britain was probably more urban than in subsequent decades, as shown by the fact that Greater London’s population declined from the late 30s until 1990.
A message of going forward in the 2020's has to be stronger than let's go back to the 1970's
Can we bring back proper draught Guinness, served from 9 and 18-gallon barrels (self-gassed) and not this shytey 'Cool' stuff that is gassed like larger! And can wine be drunk buy gurlies* only when within the boundaries of a pub.
Ta'
* Gurlies can be a gender-fluid concept within this context.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42519073
I think there were a few others but I can't remember them at the moment.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/946866815413743617
Real Madrid are going to bid £180 million for Harry Kane in the summer, and absolute kicker.
They will fund it by selling Gareth Bale to Manchester United.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2017/dec/30/harry-kane-english-clubs-real-madrid-january-transfer-window
That said, I can see Liverpool signing Harry Kane as a back up to Fab Four if we sell Sturridge.
David is right to note the lack of ideas on both sides of the House. Corbyn seems to me to be against a lot of things (some quite rightly) but seems a lot less clear about what he is for and how it can be achieved.
For the Conservatives the problem is that the growing list of things that are clearly 'wrong' generates a political desire for solutions, action and intervention - hence the growing Corbynism amongst the young; they aren't too worried (yet) about whether his solutions will work, they just want someone who appears willing to step up to the plate. May sees this, intellectually, but she lacks the character, and now the power, and quite probably the imagination, to do anything about it. And of course much of her party sees itself as the champion of lassez faire.
Rees-Mogg leads followed by Gove, Boris is third and Davis is fourth.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/12/our-survey-next-tory-leader-as-last-month-rees-mogg-leads-and-gove-is-second.html
I had no idea that many Venezuelans were members of the ruling party.
It doesn't matter whether than community is in Wiltshire or Clerkenwell, Devonshire or Farringdon Without