politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can we agree that “Peak Theresa” was the ComRes 25% lead in the S Mirror on April 23rd 2017?
Over the past day or so may have been lots of eulogies, that’s the best way to describe it, to the extraordinary resilience and staying ower of Theresa May who seems to cope with one crisis after another and still remain at Number 10.
Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.
Exit poll: 'Neck and neck' The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament
Does that suggest another Indyref?
The result looks too close to call. Especially as it was a phone poll carried out during a fairly tight time slot on polling day. I have no idea how accurate Spanish polling is, but that sounds a bit hit and miss to me.
Looks like a humiliation for the governing PP however.
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.
Exit poll: 'Neck and neck' The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament
What a waste of time.
Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
Probably not, though as you say a waste of time all around really. Spain hasn't blinked on the issue yet, and presumably won't even with this, and what would be the point of the separatists trying for another illegal referendum, so how does forward progress for either side occur?
Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.
Exit poll: 'Neck and neck' The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament
It’s a phone poll, I think, not an exit poll. There have been a couple of others, too. One for Catalunya Radio shows the indy-bloc falling short. The key thing is not the seats, but the vote share. There are three scenarios: 1. Indy-bloc gets 50%+ - gamechanger 2. Indy-bloc stays at same level as now - stalemate 3. Indy-bloc share falls - good news for Spanish unity.
It’s important to remember that the three indy parties are running on very different platforms and will struggle to work together, especially if they do not get a majority of votes; and it’s easier for indy parties to get seats because their vote is strongest in areas where it takes fewer votes to win.
If the exit poll from La Vanguardia is anything like the final result in Catalonia, it could pose an interesting question as to who has the right to form the region's next government.
Normally, the largest party has the right to have the first stab at forming a government - according to the exit poll, this would be the unionist party Citizens.
However, the separatist parties may insist they have the right to try first, if they have the largest number of seats overall.
If the exit poll from La Vanguardia is anything like the final result in Catalonia, it could pose an interesting question as to who has the right to form the region's next government.
Normally, the largest party has the right to have the first stab at forming a government - according to the exit poll, this would be the unionist party Citizens.
However, the separatist parties may insist they have the right to try first, if they have the largest number of seats overall.
Presumably one reason the biggest separatist parties stood in an alliance last time?
Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.
Exit poll: 'Neck and neck' The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament
What a waste of time.
Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
Rajoy is stubborn, but his opponents are worse. Catalan unionists are treated poorly by the local government.
Catalonia is the only region in Europe where the linguistic majority cannot send their children to state schools where they will be educated in their language. Hardly an admirable example.
Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.
Exit poll: 'Neck and neck' The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament
It’s a phone poll, I think, not an exit poll. There have been a couple of others, too. One for Catalunya Radio shows the indy-bloc falling short. The key thing is not the seats, but the vote share. There are three scenarios: 1. Indy-bloc gets 50%+ - gamechanger 2. Indy-bloc stays at same level as now - stalemate 3. Indy-bloc share falls - good news for Spanish unity.
It’s important to remember that the three indy parties are running on very different platforms and will struggle to work together, especially if they do not get a majority of votes; and it’s easier for indy parties to get seats because their vote is strongest in areas where it takes fewer votes to win.
I think it's both - it's a phone "how did you vote?" poll. Or, more correctly, a "¿how did you vote?" poll.
Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.
Exit poll: 'Neck and neck' The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament
Does that suggest another Indyref?
The result looks too close to call. Especially as it was a phone poll carried out during a fairly tight time slot on polling day. I have no idea how accurate Spanish polling is, but that sounds a bit hit and miss to me.
Looks like a humiliation for the governing PP however.
Yep - PP has been almost totally rejected. No surprise really. Rajoy’s handling of the Catalan question has been catastrophic.
"All the xenephobes want to end freedom of movement" does not mean the same as "everyone who wants to end freedom of movement is a xenephobe".
There are immigrants who want to end freedom of movement.
Colleague of mine's parents came over from north africa in the late 60s, and voted to Leave mostly due to the impact of eastern european immigration apparently, much to their strongly remain child's shock.
I don't think it should be a surprise that even many remainers were in favour of controlling immigration more, if not, on average, as fervent about it as most leavers.
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
Presently Labour isn't seeking anything much on Brexit, or on avoiding Brexit, TBF.
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
Presently Labour isn't seeking anything much on Brexit, or on not Brexit, TBF.
Indeed. With more chaos to come from the government, I would expect, hopefully they will be forced into clarity at some point.
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
Quite.
The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
Quite.
The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
Is that a sarcastic comment on how frequently Labour's Brexit position changes?
On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.
He'd have to have the skill of a Theresa MayJeremy Corbyn limpet to hang on after this...
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
Quite.
The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
Is that a sarcastic comment on how frequently Labour's Brexit position changes?
On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.
He'd have to have the skill of a Theresa MayJeremy Corbyn limpet to hang on after this...
The Catalans have done 125,000 votes already ; we'd just be getting Sunderland....
How boring election night would be if all the results were announced instantaneously
Yeah, the guy who wrote the STV counting program for internal LibDem elections wasn't popular. What used to be an afternoon of cliff-hanging suspense (for the handful who were interested) was replaced by a press of a button and a ten second wait for a computer printout.
And with her recent (relative) recovery is anyone brace enough to call “trough Theresa”? Or will the decline continue in 2018 after a brief respite?
Boring old mean reversion is the likeliest thing.
Mean reversion to what? Plenty of data points with her miles ahead. Or is that what you mean?
To the ****; first letter m. Does that help?
Thing is, if it’s true that all political careers end in failure, isn’t the graph more like an initial ascent, a plateau and then a gradual decline leavened by occasional recoveries?
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
Quite.
The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
Is that a sarcastic comment on how frequently Labour's Brexit position changes?
On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.
He'd have to have the skill of a Theresa MayJeremy Corbyn limpet to hang on after this...
It cannot change until it is established in the first place, surely?
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
Quite.
The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
Is that a sarcastic comment on how frequently Labour's Brexit position changes?
On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.
He'd have to have the skill of a Theresa MayJeremy Corbyn limpet to hang on after this...
It cannot change until it is established in the first place, surely?
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
Presently Labour isn't seeking anything much on Brexit, or on not Brexit, TBF.
If I was a Brexitteer I would be concerned about Corbyn trying to negotiate Brexit.
I don't think that May's strategy is right, and agree with the criticism that she has blundered in to this unprepared, but is it really better to have no strategy at all?
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
Quite.
The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
Is that a sarcastic comment on how frequently Labour's Brexit position changes?
On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.
He'd have to have the skill of a Theresa MayJeremy Corbyn limpet to hang on after this...
The Popular Party are still right behind Rajoy and the PP still leads Spanish national polls, if the separatists win a narrow majority he will stand firm and not budge I imagine. Though what Catalans really want is more autonomy
Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.
Exit poll: 'Neck and neck' The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament
Does that suggest another Indyref?
The result looks too close to call. Especially as it was a phone poll carried out during a fairly tight time slot on polling day. I have no idea how accurate Spanish polling is, but that sounds a bit hit and miss to me.
Looks like a humiliation for the governing PP however.
Last time around at the national level, the PP was massively understated, and did far better than the exit poll.
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
Quite.
The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
Is that a sarcastic comment on how frequently Labour's Brexit position changes?
On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.
He'd have to have the skill of a Theresa MayJeremy Corbyn limpet to hang on after this...
The Popular Party are still right behind Rajoy and the PP still leads Spanish national polls
So he is toast?
Remember Sir Humphrey's famous dictum - it is needful to get behind someone before stabbing them in the back.
It isn't anything to do with her, it is the circumstances that keep her in place.
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP. 2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
Not everyone regards the prospect of a Labour Government as disastrous .Especially if it manages to avoid Brexit!
Labour are not presently seeking to avoid Brexit.
Quite.
The problem with observations like that is that after midnight we lose the time of them and are merely left with the date. That is pushing the veracity of the statement to an extreme.
Is that a sarcastic comment on how frequently Labour's Brexit position changes?
On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.
He'd have to have the skill of a Theresa MayJeremy Corbyn limpet to hang on after this...
The Popular Party are still right behind Rajoy and the PP still leads Spanish national polls
So he is toast?
Remember Sir Humphrey's famous dictum - it is needful to get behind someone before stabbing them in the back.
He isn't as the PP will be even more stubborn than before, plus the PP still has a lot of support outside Catalonia, look at all the Spaniards on the streets of Madrid waving Spanish flags as they applauded the Civil Guard on its way to deal with the unofficial Catalan referendum
Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.
Exit poll: 'Neck and neck' The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament
What a waste of time.
Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
Rajoy is stubborn, but his opponents are worse. Catalan unionists are treated poorly by the local government.
Catalonia is the only region in Europe where the linguistic majority cannot send their children to state schools where they will be educated in their language. Hardly an admirable example.
Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.
Exit poll: 'Neck and neck' The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament
What a waste of time.
Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
Rajoy is stubborn, but his opponents are worse. Catalan unionists are treated poorly by the local government.
Catalonia is the only region in Europe where the linguistic majority cannot send their children to state schools where they will be educated in their language. Hardly an admirable example.
Linguistic plurality I think you mean.
No, majority. Almost everyone in Catalonia speaks Spanish, only a minority speak Catalan.
The Catalonian voting system is list PR - using the d'Hondt method which gives a slight advantage to larger parties - and a 3% vote threshold below which you get no seats at all - but with the results calculated separately for the four districts (constituencies) and with a weighting reducing Barcelona's influence by giving the other districts more representatives per population (as the UK used to award Scotland, Wales and NI).
I think our vote was pathetic. It is not for foreign states to tell others what their capital should be, and even less so to tell other powers whether they can recognise that fact.
Can Israel dictate to the Palestinians where their capital should be?
I think our vote was pathetic. It is not for foreign states to tell others what their capital should be, and even less so to tell other powers whether they can recognise that fact.
Can Israel dictate to the Palestinians where their capital should be?
Yes, because they're the occupying power. Which is sort of the problem.
I think our vote was pathetic. It is not for foreign states to tell others what their capital should be, and even less so to tell other powers whether they can recognise that fact.
Can Israel dictate to the Palestinians where their capital should be?
Yes, because they're the occupying power. Which is sort of the problem.
Even more relevantly, whatever the rights or wrongs of our vote, foreign states tell others what their status or is not all the time - some places tell Israel they are not a country at all, though more acknowledge they are. And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.
Right now, the three independence parties (Junts, ERC and CUP) are on 49.5% of the vote between them, but are looking at 71 seats out of 135.
I would expect that their vote share will drift lower, as Barcelona is well behind the other regions as far as counts go. Nevertheless, it looks like a repeat of last time with the pro-Independence parties still short of the magic 50% of the vote mark (say 48%), but with the majority of the seats.
And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.
Which one of Taiwan, North Cyprus and the Palestinian Territories are you referring to?
And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.
Which one of Taiwan, North Cyprus and the Palestinian Territories are you referring to?
I was thinking of Somaliland - it seems to have all the necessary trappings of a state, and is stable and apparently democratic, but no one recognises it at all, and therefore its capital is presumably not a capital at all, since it is just a city in Somalia.
Right now, the three independence parties (Junts, ERC and CUP) are on 49.5% of the vote between them, but are looking at 71 seats out of 135.
I would expect that their vote share will drift lower, as Barcelona is well behind the other regions as far as counts go. Nevertheless, it looks like a repeat of last time with the pro-Independence parties still short of the magic 50% of the vote mark (say 48%), but with the majority of the seats.
Right now, the three independence parties (Junts, ERC and CUP) are on 49.5% of the vote between them, but are looking at 71 seats out of 135.
I would expect that their vote share will drift lower, as Barcelona is well behind the other regions as far as counts go. Nevertheless, it looks like a repeat of last time with the pro-Independence parties still short of the magic 50% of the vote mark (say 48%), but with the majority of the seats.
Yep. Indeed if Barca stays as it is the Indys could be well short of 50% and maybe short of a majority of seats. Yet the governing party is rejected almost completely.
And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.
Which one of Taiwan, North Cyprus and the Palestinian Territories are you referring to?
I was thinking of Somaliland - it seems to have all the necessary trappings of a state, and is stable and apparently democratic, but no one recognises it at all, and therefore its capital is presumably not a capital at all, since it is just a city in Somalia.
I think our vote was pathetic. It is not for foreign states to tell others what their capital should be, and even less so to tell other powers whether they can recognise that fact.
Can Israel dictate to the Palestinians where their capital should be?
Yes, because they're the occupying power. Which is sort of the problem.
Even more relevantly, whatever the rights or wrongs of our vote, foreign states tell others what their status or is not all the time - some places tell Israel they are not a country at all, though more acknowledge they are. And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.
There aren’t many UN member states whose existence a significant number of countries refuse to recognise.
I just don’t see how recognising the reality of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, which would only change in the event of the state of Israel’s destruction, will make any difference to the ultimate fate of the Palestinians. It’s like Britain only recognising Chinese ‘suzerainty’ over Tibet until 2008.
I don't know if these sectoral analyses newly published on the Brexit committee website have been commented on earlier. Are these new public information, do they say much new given the redactions and are they the DEXEU docs or something the committee have commissioned or pulled from elsewhere?
Would normally do the legwork before posting, but only had a few minutes.
Right now, the three independence parties (Junts, ERC and CUP) are on 49.5% of the vote between them, but are looking at 71 seats out of 135.
I would expect that their vote share will drift lower, as Barcelona is well behind the other regions as far as counts go. Nevertheless, it looks like a repeat of last time with the pro-Independence parties still short of the magic 50% of the vote mark (say 48%), but with the majority of the seats.
Yep. Indeed if Barca stays as it is the Indys could be well short of 50% and maybe short of a majority of seats. Yet the governing party is rejected almost completely.
Not on seats, because the system gives Barcelona fewer seats per head of population than the other areas. Which is a recipe for discord.
I think our vote was pathetic. It is not for foreign states to tell others what their capital should be, and even less so to tell other powers whether they can recognise that fact.
Can Israel dictate to the Palestinians where their capital should be?
Yes, because they're the occupying power. Which is sort of the problem.
Even more relevantly, whatever the rights or wrongs of our vote, foreign states tell others what their status or is not all the time - some places tell Israel they are not a country at all, though more acknowledge they are. And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.
There aren’t many UN member states whose existence a significant number of countries refuse to recognise.
I just don’t see how recognising the reality of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, which would only change in the event of the state of Israel’s destruction, will make any difference to the ultimate fate of the Palestinians. It’s like Britain only recognising Chinese ‘suzerainty’ over Tibet until 2008.
I don't see how it will make much difference either, but the point was that is is for foreign states to tell others things, or at least they have always done so to some degree, even if it is silly or pointless.
Funny thing was, I was opposed to Catalonian independence - I find their movement small minded and insular - but the whole police beating voters thing was unacceptable.
Comments
And with her recent (relative) recovery is anyone brace enough to call “trough Theresa”? Or will the decline continue in 2018 after a brief respite?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg
Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.
Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament
Edit - yes
Rajoy just doesn't get the Catalan independence issue, does he?
Looks like a humiliation for the governing PP however.
The results of local consultative polls in Barnsley and Doncaster have been announced with significant support for the One Yorkshire mayor version.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-42441721
1) she is the only person who can credibly claim to have a mandate to lead the government, given the deal with the DUP.
2) the high risk of a labour government if elections are called which is widely feared to be a disaster for the both the UK economy, and for Brexit.
She can basically survive anything, but not through her own skill or ability.
1. Indy-bloc gets 50%+ - gamechanger
2. Indy-bloc stays at same level as now - stalemate
3. Indy-bloc share falls - good news for Spanish unity.
It’s important to remember that the three indy parties are running on very different platforms and will struggle to work together, especially if they do not get a majority of votes; and it’s easier for indy parties to get seats because their vote is strongest in areas where it takes fewer votes to win.
Normally, the largest party has the right to have the first stab at forming a government - according to the exit poll, this would be the unionist party Citizens.
However, the separatist parties may insist they have the right to try first, if they have the largest number of seats overall.
There are immigrants who want to end freedom of movement.
Although the non-Puigdemont separatists have gained considerably at his party's expense
https://resultats.parlament2017.cat/09AU/DAU09999CM.htm?lang=ca
I don't think it should be a surprise that even many remainers were in favour of controlling immigration more, if not, on average, as fervent about it as most leavers.
On the thread topic if not the header topic, surely Rajoy is toast on these numbers. He has gambled and while he has not lost disastrously he has still not got what he needed, plus his party has been firmly rebuffed.
He'd have to have the skill of a
Theresa MayJeremy Corbynlimpet to hang on after this...Ouch.
I don't think that May's strategy is right, and agree with the criticism that she has blundered in to this unprepared, but is it really better to have no strategy at all?
Of course, that presupposes the poll is accurate. The methodology sounds odd.
But the PP barely registers in Catalonia.
Remember Sir Humphrey's famous dictum - it is needful to get behind someone before stabbing them in the back.
Barcelona is less than half the level counted of the other areas. (And is massively pro-C)
In Australia, where voting is compulsory, last year turnout was 90.9%.
I would expect that their vote share will drift lower, as Barcelona is well behind the other regions as far as counts go. Nevertheless, it looks like a repeat of last time with the pro-Independence parties still short of the magic 50% of the vote mark (say 48%), but with the majority of the seats.
Yes, that is as you say very unjust.
Just so dreadful
I just don’t see how recognising the reality of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, which would only change in the event of the state of Israel’s destruction, will make any difference to the ultimate fate of the Palestinians. It’s like Britain only recognising Chinese ‘suzerainty’ over Tibet until 2008.
Would normally do the legwork before posting, but only had a few minutes.
http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/exiting-the-european-union-committee/publications/
169,642 votes in Barcelona, out of a Catalonian total of 226,461.