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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why those opposed to Brexit shouldn’t get too excited by the BMG 10% Remain lead poll
The former President of YouGov and leading political commentator, Peter Kellner, has written a comprehensive note about the BMG poll for the Indy which has Remain 10% ahead to a question of how those sampled would vote in a future referendum. In his look at the BMG numbers Kellner notes:
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Regardless of if the rumours that The Times are reporting (that Tories want May to stay for the transition, leaving in 2021) there's far more value on her surviving than leaving soon. There's no good time to have a leadership election and rarely a time the PM wants to stand down. Brown, Major, both survived until general elections.
Betfair have 8.5 (!) on May surviving just to 2020. Big value.
Ain't that the truth.
This is not the Xmas movie I wanted.
@OnnMel: @robfordmancs I thought that was a lovely fun film. I’m watching Die Hard. Because it IS a Christmas film.
Art has walked across the USA and across Europe. Not in one go, but there are worse hobbies.
I doubt many will change their minds, unless Brexit is a total disaster.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-it-leaves-the-eu-britain-suffers-setback-after-setback-1513538549
As It Leaves the EU, Britain Suffers Setback After Setback
Milliband as PM, Clinton in the White House, May with a 100 seat majority. Why bother letting tens of millions of people vote - lets just abolish elections and do a 'representative' sample of 1000 voters!
Not all online pollsters were more accurate. Mori and Survation's final telephone polls were more accurate predictors than You gov and Populus's online polls.
The only poll that matters was the one in which 36 million voted - the most representative sample of all!
So polls are not completely wrong but as you say guides not gospel.
Collectively the state polls and electoral college predictions based on them had Clinton way ahead - a 98 per cent chance we were told - all on the back of state polls. The national vote shares were irrelevant - as that isn't their electoral system.
As for Mrs May - even Labour couldn't believe the exit poll and they and their pollsters were certain they had lost.
I just find the idea that somehow we should stop Brexit - or even question it - on the back of a BMG poll beyond ridiculous. And of course we have a Tory and DUP government - whose voters clearly still back Brexit even on BMGs numbers.
We had a national poll on Brexit in June 2016 - the only relevant question for pollsters now should be how we Leave and on what terms.
Remain 48%
Will watch the programme today with the benefit of hindsight, see if there were any clues in there as to the result or the low number of votes cast.
The interesting political event this week is the cabinet debate tomorrow. And whether, indeed, it is a real debate.
He was the 1/5 favourite to win SPOTY for the last few months.
So I wonder if Joshua suffered from his big win coming in the summer.
Really disappointed with Ali in this series so far. He has been one of our most consistent players over the last couple of years but to keep getting out to 50mph non turning dollies when your team is under pressure is really good not enough.
Broad goes of a duck. There was a time that he wasn't a tail ender but that was a long time ago.
If, as I suspect, Betfair also have a predominantly male audience, then punters may overestimate the chances of boxers in a wider contest like SPOTY, where name recognition is key. I've little interest in sport, but I know Mo Farah's name well and if I'd voted it might have been for him.
In the same way, ironically, I've been making modest profits out of betting on cricket, simply by assuming there's a Betfair bias to backing England in anything, so laying England tends to be good value. If one can spot a punter bias and is cold-blooded enough not to bet with one's heart, it can be profitable.
Meanwhile my friend Gary Google tells me that David Haye's fight last year was, together with the Grand National, the only non football sport in the 20 most viewed sports events of 2016.
And of course a boxer has been the best paid sportsman on the planet for many years.
But yes I have changed my mind as new data has come to light. Lets see how the trend develops.
It would appear that being uncontroversial doesn't sell papers.
That's mostly down to Jeremy Corbyn. Brexit's Bezzy Mate.
Jonathan Rea 80,567
Jonnie Peacock 73,429
Anthony Joshua 73,411
Adam Peaty 63,739
Lewis Hamilton 60,627
Chris Froome 47,683
2016:
Murray received 247,419 votes, Brownlee 121,665 and Skelton 109,197, Farah 54476
2015:
Scot Murray, 28, won 361,446 of the 1,009,498 votes cast (35%), with Sinfield getting 278,353 (28%) and Ennis-Hill 78,898 (8%), Tyson Fury 72330.
2014:
Lewis Hamilton - F1 - 209,920
Rory McIlroy - golf - 123,745
Jo Pavey - athletics - 99,913
Charlotte Dujardin - dressage - 75,814
Lizzy Yarnold - skeleton - 23,188
Max Whitlock - gymnastics - 17,219
Mr. Metatron/Mr. Recidivist, that's an interesting question. If there are persistently large leads for Remain in polling, would it be likelier for a Commons revocation or a second referendum to occur?
Edited extra bit: gutted Farah won SPOTY, but only because I'd backed him last year and not this. Checked the odds a few hours beforehand, Joshua was layable at about 1.16, Hamilton around 14, Froome likewise, and everyone else was enormous.
Maybe the lesson for SPOTY is to lay the favourite?
If they had any sense, they would quitly drop it.
Or let SKY buy it.
Not quite sure why the Tories would drop a policy that is becoming increasingly popular with their own supporters - assuming we believe the BMG numbers? They won a majority in 2015 with 63 per cent of voters not voting for them.
Most voters don't like much of what the Tories are doing in government - but you don't need a majority of voters to win elections as 2005 and 2015 proved.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/CONFIDENTIAL-BMG-Independent-Poll-December-2017-EU-Ref-Tracker.xlsx
LD and SNP voters strongly back Remain.
1) Leave had a large lead going into the referendum if you believe the polls.
2) There is an opportunity for polling companies to use particular methodologies to create a narrative, knowing that this narrative could drive a particular outcome. Many people already think that polling is simply a way to lead or reinforce opinion rather then a gauge of it. That may or may not be true, I have no evidence either way, but the perception of it quite prevalent.
Win win for the Tories
I can't think of a standout performance by an individual from 2017.
Who says some or all of them aren't still getting it wrong big time? Cos if we believed the vast majority of polls Brexit wouldn't be happening!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
Hamilton has already won it, Joshua has plenty of time to win it and Froome is too marred in controversy.
"If there are persistently large leads for Remain in polling, would it be likelier for a Commons revocation or a second referendum to occur?"
If I were the proverbial Metropolitan Elite, what would I do? Definitely slowly stifle the progress towards leave until it gets bogged down in amendments, points of order, and legal challenges until the electorate is thoroughly fed-up. Then announce a tidying-up operation which means we go no further.
Make sure no one party can be blamed for the debacle so as to maintain a HoC common purpose. We'd end up with the worst of all worlds but mission achieved. Onward with the Euro State.
A second referendum is too easy to criticise, the BBC would have to have three weeks of neutrality, and the Barnier/Juncker duo are too risky.
As it happens, Yougov, MORI, ORB, and Populus would all have been more accurate, had they trusted their own data, rather than adjusting it in ways that favoured Remain.
The place of course where it could be delayed and blocked by the 'proverbial Metropolitan elite' is in the Lords. You can imagine how the tabloids would play it when it emerged unelected Peers were seeking to sabotage the 'will of the people' and the Commons! Voters might get bored or alternatively they might get rather annoyed with the Lords.
Tory voters are becoming more pro Brexit according to BMG - so why would the Tories drop something their supporters rather like.
But as they say you can only beat what's in front of you and so far he is world champion. We'll see what next year brings.
In England there is no doubt that the Tories are worried about UKIP but this is not the case in Scotland. A hard Brexit would threaten all the 12 seats won last year under a non hard Bexit manifesto. TM needs to thread the eye of a needle. If she veers too anti EU she will lose the commons but if she veers too close to the EU she fears a UKIP revival.
https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/942667033170399232
" BlueBay Asset Management has slashed its bet against the pound following a meeting with the Labour shadow chancellor that left the $57bn hedge fund firm “reassured” the opposition party could deliver a softer Brexit. The London-based firm cut its short positions against sterling in half following a meeting with John McDonnell last month, one of a series of meetings the shadow chancellor has held with some of the City's most influential companies. "
https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/hedge-fund-giant-slashes-sterling-bet-after-labour-party-meeting-20171218
https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/942684465003945984
https://twitter.com/goddersbloom/status/942664507939319809
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.
Mr. Divvie, it's disturbing. But not, sadly, surprising.
Of course Labour should be worried about a UKIP revival too, Corbyn won 20% of 2015 UKIP voters
Going to be a long 15 months...