politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If not Balls as Shadow Chancellor then who?

MikeSmithson said:

Britain's biggest problem - the "Ethnic English". An interesting viewpoint
from Canada.

""Once a tolerant, welcoming people who thrived in scholarship and commerce, they have become a drag. Sorry, Gran"

http://goo.gl/yD5EXr

The 'extremist' Ukip?!

At least he admits to white flight I suppose

Balls may have had a hard week last week, but polls show his cost of living message hit home and he is clearly the most heavyweight of the Labour frontbench with the best understanding of economics. Of those Mike suggests, Chuka Umunna is a lawyer and also will not take the job as he wants to be leader not Chancellor and does not want to be tainted with a Labour defeat; Rachel Reeves worked at HBOS during the crash which is hardly the best experience to commend her and Leslie studied politics and was an office administrator and political researcher before being elected. Of the above only Liam Byrne is a real prospect with qualifications and experience for the job, having an MBA from Harvard and City experience with Accenture and Rothschilds.

Also, Just been to an excellent ceremony for the enthronement of the 'Boy Bishop of Hereford' at Hereford Cathedral

HYUFD said:

Balls may have had a hard week last week, but polls show his cost of living message hit home and he is clearly the most heavyweight of the Labour frontbench with the best understanding of economics. Of those Mike suggests, Chuka Umunna is a lawyer and also will not take the job as he wants to be leader not Chancellor and does not want to be tainted with a Labour defeat; Rachel Reeves worked at HBOS during the crash which is hardly the best experience to commend her and Leslie studied politics and was an office administrator and political researcher before being elected. Of the above only Liam Byrne is a real prospect with qualifications and experience for the job, having an MBA from Harvard and City experience with Accenture and Rothschilds.

Also, Just been to an excellent ceremony for the enthronement of the 'Boy Bishop of Hereford' at Hereford Cathedral

When the only alternative is Liam Byrne, it is probably not worth taking the 11-4 from Hills that he will be out. Still probably a touch of value in Mike's 3 suggestions but he is probably safe.

MikeSmithson said:

Scott_P said:

@MrHarryCole: Union candidate beats compelling bedroom tax campaigner in Falkirk. Pam Duncan, a grassroots voice for Labour shafted by vested interests.

With great respect I don't think that Harry Cole is an objective observer.

According to the Record, Duncan was the favourite:


http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/falkirk-labour-hopeful-calls-fresh-2900681

Mind you, Labour have been making a mess of Falkirk since Canavan.....

Looks like the east of Ukraine is actually richer than the west:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ukrainian_salary_map.png

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TSE - pls bet on Liverpool next week.

Thank you.

I'm backing Spurs. My last few Spurs bets have been profitable.

Fine - so be it, I'll bet on Suarez any time goal scorer.... that'll stop you in your tracks.

Is Gerrard going to be out too?

What a guy. I think we need an update on the (very) tired baby eating meme.

'Millionaire banker & Tory party donor Sir David Scholey'

http://tinyurl.com/ngrmbyg

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TSE - pls bet on Liverpool next week.

Thank you.

I'm backing Spurs. My last few Spurs bets have been profitable.

Fine - so be it, I'll bet on Suarez any time goal scorer.... that'll stop you in your tracks.

Is Gerrard going to be out too?

So we should prepare for the most turgid nil nil ever.

I think it is Gerrard's hamstring. So out for a while.

If you bet on Suarez, I'll bet on Spurs winning the FA Cup.

Theuniondivvie said:

What a guy. I think we need an update on the (very) tired baby eating meme.

'Millionaire banker & Tory party donor Sir David Scholey'

http://tinyurl.com/ngrmbyg

That story is two years old?

I remember the Mash's write up made me laugh

(Careful, this story make shock someone as innocent as you)


http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/environment/tory-donor-kills-lion-but-still-fails-to-get-full-erection-201109124291

notme said:

Swiss_Bob said:

MikeSmithson said:

Britain's biggest problem - the "Ethnic English". An interesting viewpoint
from Canada.

""Once a tolerant, welcoming people who thrived in scholarship and commerce, they have become a drag. Sorry, Gran"

http://goo.gl/yD5EXr

Yes, we all know that it's OK to be racist towards the 'ethnic English', not that such a group exists as far as the left is concerned because then 'we' might have rights.

He'll be lucky if he survives Canada's hate speech laws but as it's the 'ethnic English' he's talking about he'll probably get a pass.

Especially when it is clear that the source information used to back up his claim about attainment levels by ethnicity were, lets just say, slightly rigged. They used a subsample of white English males (those on free school meals) and compared them to the wider group of other ethnic groups. You cant pick out a subsample and then compare it against the wider group and keep credibility.

Particularly when there is no such thing as 'ethnic English', anyone with a passing acquaintance with the genetic profile of the peoples of the British Isles would know that. We're all the same, English, Scots, Welsh and Irish.

Many thanks. I've just read the report about it on newsnet scotland

Theuniondivvie said:

For Andrea (though I'm sure he already knows), Natalie McGarry has been chosen as the SNP candidate for the Cowdenbeath by election.

Life_ina_market_town said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There isn't a statute of limitations.

What would the Limitation Act 1980, and section 127 of the Magistrates' Courts Act 1980 be then?

It was this statute we were discussing.

Is there a statute of limitations on being a not-to-put-to-fine-a-point-on-it t*sser?

Swiss_Bob said:

notme said:

Swiss_Bob said:

MikeSmithson said:

Britain's biggest problem - the "Ethnic English". An interesting viewpoint
from Canada.

""Once a tolerant, welcoming people who thrived in scholarship and commerce, they have become a drag. Sorry, Gran"

http://goo.gl/yD5EXr

Yes, we all know that it's OK to be racist towards the 'ethnic English', not that such a group exists as far as the left is concerned because then 'we' might have rights.

He'll be lucky if he survives Canada's hate speech laws but as it's the 'ethnic English' he's talking about he'll probably get a pass.

Especially when it is clear that the source information used to back up his claim about attainment levels by ethnicity were, lets just say, slightly rigged. They used a subsample of white English males (those on free school meals) and compared them to the wider group of other ethnic groups. You cant pick out a subsample and then compare it against the wider group and keep credibility.

Particularly when there is no such thing as 'ethnic English', anyone with a passing acquaintance with the genetic profile of the peoples of the British Isles would know that. We're all the same, English, Scots, Welsh and Irish.

If Nick Griffin started talking about "Ethnic English" in reference to white people, I don't think a Lib Dem would link to it without criticism of the phrase and mentioning "theres no such thing" etc etc, & the Labour luvvies would be making a martyr of every non white Englishman before you could say double standards

Only Spurs could pick a year to finish above Man United and still not qualify for Champions League...

odds on that currently?

Democratic Party primary elections today in Italy. More than 2.5 million voters. 3 candidates: Renzi, Cuperlo and Civati. Renzi expected to win easily

I agree. It would be foolish and dangeous to put as COE a politician whose qualification was irrelevant, such as a history PhD. Imagine the chaos if that were to be the case for a decade!

HYUFD said:

Balls may have had a hard week last week, but polls show his cost of living message hit home and he is clearly the most heavyweight of the Labour frontbench with the best understanding of economics. Of those Mike suggests, Chuka Umunna is a lawyer and also will not take the job as he wants to be leader not Chancellor and does not want to be tainted with a Labour defeat; Rachel Reeves worked at HBOS during the crash which is hardly the best experience to commend her and Leslie studied politics and was an office administrator and political researcher before being elected. Of the above only Liam Byrne is a real prospect with qualifications and experience for the job, having an MBA from Harvard and City experience with Accenture and Rothschilds.

Also, Just been to an excellent ceremony for the enthronement of the 'Boy Bishop of Hereford' at Hereford Cathedral

@TheUnionDivvie - If you know anyone over at Wings over Scotland, it might be wise to tell them to take down that Darling is crap link you posted.

The Times lawyers get very upset at people violating their copyright and paywall.

PB has received warnings in the past, when posters have copied parts of Times articles here, I can only imagine how they'd react if they found if entire articles were being posted elsewhere.

TheScreamingEagles said:

@TheUnionDivvie - If you know anyone over at Wings over Scotland, it might be wise to tell them to take down that Darling is crap link you posted.

The Times lawyers get very upset at people violating their copyright and paywall.

PB has received warnings in the past, when posters have copied parts of Times articles here, I can only imagine how they'd react if they found if entire articles were being posted elsewhere.

Thanks, I'll mention it to them, though they get a bit feisty when threatened with lawyers.

I agree with Len, I'm so pissed off with Bruno.

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Is Ashley Taylor Dawson defo out of Strictly btw ?

Yes, went out in the dance off with Patrick last night.

Still it was a profitable tip by me for him to be top male.

Spoilers! What's your source? Mind you, up against Patrick it would be a foregone conclusion......Sophie next out I reckon.....tho Susanna didn't shine this week.....

Sorry.

A very reputable source, you forget, I work near MediaCity.

I'm going to Salford Quays this week, will look out for a guy with dodgy shoes and a Star Trek uniform on

I assume this has been mentioned before?

In a separate interview, Lord Puttnam, the Labour peer and film producer, said the election of Ed Miliband as leader was "a considerable gift to the Tory party".

Puttnam, who backed David Miliband for the Labour leadership, said that having David as leader would have made life "a lot tougher" for the coalition. He said that Ed Miliband had done well, and that he was "prime ministerial material", but that he did not expect the party to win an outright majority at the election.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/08/ed-balls-couldnt-give-toss-criticism

I don't believe that Balls is tainted because of his "associations" with Brown. Most people either don't know or don't care about that.

That said, I'm still not sure he's a very good choice for shadow chancellor. The problem is that, whenever he makes an argument, the way he delivers it just comes across all wrong to an ordinary voter, even if they might agree with him if they just saw his words written down. Balls (and Osborne, and most of the Westminster village) seem to treat the whole economic debate as a game of poker, where whoever is proven right or whoever gets their opponent to back down automatically wins. But that's not how normal people see it, they're more concerned with which lot actually want to help them and are motivated by doing the best for the public. That's why politicians just bellowing words to the effect of "hahaha, I was right, you were wrong, everyone bask in my triumph" doesn't have any impact on the polls at all, whether it was Balls when the economy was in dire straits, or Osborne now it's recovering, because it just makes voters at home think "God, what w**kers, they just think this is a game". EdM has got much better in recent months at framing his arguments like he's saying it because he's concerned about what people are going through, rather than simply trying to just get one over on the other team, but I just don't know if Balls has it in him.

If he is replaced, I'd actually go with Andy Burnham. He actually sounds like a humanbeing who understands people's strife. And even though the Westminster bubble think he's tainted by the Mid-Staffordshire thing, noone outside cares about that (here in Merseyside, he's by far most famous for what he did on Hillsborough rather than anything else). If not him then Yvette Cooper would be a lesser evil than Balls, she atleast sounds a bit convincing at genuine concern, although she too can be a bit tribal when mindlessly attacking Theresa May over anything and everything.

GeoffM said:

Theuniondivvie said:

GeoffM said:

Theuniondivvie said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Many thanks. I've just read the report about it on newsnet scotland

Theuniondivvie said:

For Andrea (though I'm sure he already knows), Natalie McGarry has been chosen as the SNP candidate for the Cowdenbeath by election.

No problem. I think she'll have a bit of an uphill struggle.
Slightly interestingly, her s/o is David Meikle, Glasgow's only Tory councillor.

s/o ?

Significant other, boyfriend, partner, squeeze etc

Ah, cheers for that. In my day we called them 'husbands'.

And not 'marido'?

Theuniondivvie said:

What a guy. I think we need an update on the (very) tired baby eating meme.

'Millionaire banker & Tory party donor Sir David Scholey'

http://tinyurl.com/ngrmbyg

What have you done with your life that compares to David's achievements?

GeoffM said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Freggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Is Ashley Taylor Dawson defo out of Strictly btw ?

Yes, went out in the dance off with Patrick last night.

Still it was a profitable tip by me for him to be top male.

Spoilers! What's your source? Mind you, up against Patrick it would be a foregone conclusion......Sophie next out I reckon.....tho Susanna didn't shine this week.....

Sorry.

A very reputable source, you forget, I work near MediaCity.

I'm going to Salford Quays this week, will look out for a guy with dodgy shoes and a Star Trek uniform on

I don't work those shoes to work. I normally wear my brown shoes to work.

Not with a dark suit, I hope?

Yup, usually one of my pinstripe suits.

I like to be memorable.

Sachin Patel selected as Labour candidate in Richmond Park. The seat is a Labour target 371 out of 373.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Only Spurs could pick a year to finish above Man United and still not qualify for Champions League...

odds on that currently?

The classic, though, is still: finish in the top 4 and *still* don't qualify for the Champions League... because Chelski won the competition

tim said:

Which is more stupid, Tories slagging immigrants or Tories slagging Alistair Darling?

Labour people slagging Alistair Darling.

Theuniondivvie said:

Charles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

What a guy. I think we need an update on the (very) tired baby eating meme.

'Millionaire banker & Tory party donor Sir David Scholey'

http://tinyurl.com/ngrmbyg

What have you done with your life that compares to David's achievements?

Well. I definitely haven't shot a lion. I won't go down the 'erection' path...

How about (a) pluck an unknown women from where she worked in the library and give her the political support to build one of the world's best asset management firms; (b) build one of the best international banks; (c) be a highly effective director of the bank of england (d) transform the national portrait gallery;

Charles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Charles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

What a guy. I think we need an update on the (very) tired baby eating meme.

'Millionaire banker & Tory party donor Sir David Scholey'

http://tinyurl.com/ngrmbyg

What have you done with your life that compares to David's achievements?

Well. I definitely haven't shot a lion. I won't go down the 'erection' path...

How about (a) pluck an unknown women from where she worked in the library and give her the political support to build one of the world's best asset management firms; (b) build one of the best international banks; (c) be a highly effective director of the bank of england (d) transform the national portrait gallery;

You really must get that hair-trigger pomposity looked at. There's probably a pill for it.

tim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tim said:

Which is more stupid, Tories slagging immigrants or Tories slagging Alistair Darling?

Labour people slagging Alistair Darling.

Obviously they are stupid too, but it didn't really answer the question.

Tories not understanding Scotland, Tories not understanding modern Britain.
And no matter how many times you parrott "Phil Woolas" nothing will change the fact that Tories have one Scottish MP and 16% of the non white vote.
And they dont seem to want to learn

Getting accused of parroting by you? Irony overload.How many times have talked things like the Polzeath Porpoise or Dave in Morrisons or Latvian homophobes?

Right now, it has dawned on quite a few people (from Lab to the Tories) that the person who predicted the following, might not the be most credible person to lead better together, particularly against Salmond's bravado?

Britain is more resilient and more prepared to deal with global shocks.

The man who resigned from the faculty of advocates

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/6968208/Alistair-Darling-resigns-from-law-body-as-it-investigates-his-conduct.html

or the man who managed his property portfolio better than he ever managed the economy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5418768/MPs-expenses-How-Alistair-Darling-nominated-four-properties-as-second-home-in-four-years.html


If you think none of this is going to be mentioned by the Yes side, then perhaps you're the one who doesn't want to learn.

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 6m

Smart observation of Alastair Campbell's GE2015 role from @DPJHodges. He's being "humoured"

http://fw.to/6laYFMG

tim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tim said:

Which is more stupid, Tories slagging immigrants or Tories slagging Alistair Darling?

Labour people slagging Alistair Darling.

Obviously they are stupid too, but it didn't really answer the question.

Tories not understanding Scotland, Tories not understanding modern Britain.
And no matter how many times you parrott "Phil Woolas" nothing will change the fact that Tories have one Scottish MP and 16% of the non white vote.
And they dont seem to want to learn

Getting accused of parroting by you? Irony overload.How many times have talked things like the Polzeath Porpoise or Dave in Morrisons or Latvian homophobes?

Right now, it has dawned on quite a few people (from Lab to the Tories) that the person who predicted the following, might not the be most credible person to lead better together, particularly against Salmond's bravado?

Britain is more resilient and more prepared to deal with global shocks.

The man who resigned from the faculty of advocates

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/6968208/Alistair-Darling-resigns-from-law-body-as-it-investigates-his-conduct.html

or the man who managed his property portfolio better than he ever managed the economy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5418768/MPs-expenses-How-Alistair-Darling-nominated-four-properties-as-second-home-in-four-years.html


If you think none of this is going to be mentioned by the Yes side, then perhaps you're the one who doesn't want to learn.

You think Darling is doing a bad job, then I'm not surprised.
Do you seriously want anyone to remind me about your judgement before the last election, let alone your inability to settle your bets.

Care to remind everyone about your calls on Eastleigh, Farrons seat?

I don't think Darling is doing a bad job, we're in the phoney war stage, but the battle will change come next summer, when the situation will slightly be different to now as the campaign starts proper.

I think when the UK's premier political betting blogger regularly asks to me edit his site, I think my judgement is respected by those who count.

All I've seen is you call the last election wrong, badly.

Yet I still won money on the last election.

Guess what, some people make predictions that turn out accurate, some that didn't.

I'm sure you've won every bet since the election haven't you?

Theuniondivvie said:

Charles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Charles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

What a guy. I think we need an update on the (very) tired baby eating meme.

'Millionaire banker & Tory party donor Sir David Scholey'

http://tinyurl.com/ngrmbyg

What have you done with your life that compares to David's achievements?

Well. I definitely haven't shot a lion. I won't go down the 'erection' path...

How about (a) pluck an unknown women from where she worked in the library and give her the political support to build one of the world's best asset management firms; (b) build one of the best international banks; (c) be a highly effective director of the bank of england (d) transform the national portrait gallery;

You really must get that hair-trigger pomposity looked at. There's probably a pill for it.

Nah - I'm just p1ssed off with "banker" being used as an insult.

David Scholey was a great business man, who created two world class institutions (SG Warburg and MAM). Ok, so you don't like him shooting a lion (I don't particularly either) but it doesn't negate everything that he did with his life.

tim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tim said:

Which is more stupid, Tories slagging immigrants or Tories slagging Alistair Darling?

Labour people slagging Alistair Darling.

Obviously they are stupid too, but it didn't really answer the question.

Tories not understanding Scotland, Tories not understanding modern Britain.
And no matter how many times you parrott "Phil Woolas" nothing will change the fact that Tories have one Scottish MP and 16% of the non white vote.
And they dont seem to want to learn

Getting accused of parroting by you? Irony overload.How many times have talked things like the Polzeath Porpoise or Dave in Morrisons or Latvian homophobes?

Right now, it has dawned on quite a few people (from Lab to the Tories) that the person who predicted the following, might not the be most credible person to lead better together, particularly against Salmond's bravado?

Britain is more resilient and more prepared to deal with global shocks.

The man who resigned from the faculty of advocates

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/6968208/Alistair-Darling-resigns-from-law-body-as-it-investigates-his-conduct.html

or the man who managed his property portfolio better than he ever managed the economy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5418768/MPs-expenses-How-Alistair-Darling-nominated-four-properties-as-second-home-in-four-years.html


If you think none of this is going to be mentioned by the Yes side, then perhaps you're the one who doesn't want to learn.

You think Darling is doing a bad job, then I'm not surprised.
Do you seriously want anyone to remind me about your judgement before the last election, let alone your inability to settle your bets.

Care to remind everyone about your calls on Eastleigh, Farrons seat?

I don't think Darling is doing a bad job, we're in the phoney war stage, but the battle will change come next summer, when the situation will slightly be different to now as the campaign starts proper.

I think when the UK's premier political betting blogger regularly asks to me edit his site, I think my judgement is respected by those who count.

All I've seen is you call the last election wrong, badly.

Yet I still won money on the last election.

Guess what, some people make predictions that turn out accurate, some that done.

I'm sure you've won every bet since the election haven't you?

Obviously not.
But I know that when you eventually settled on the last election you lost badly

But I'm off to watch Homeland.

So knock yourself out.

How many of the last 10 CoE were economists or had studied economics at university? Not many....

I quite like Andy Burnham, and think him second best of the Health Ministers during the last Labour government (after Frank Dobson- who had the wisdom to do very little apart from carry out the '97 pledge to abolish the internal market)

Burnam was Minister of Health for 12/12 in 2006-7, and Secretary of State for Health, from summer 2009. The Stafford Scandal went public in late 2008, and the first investigation was in March 2009, before Burnham became Secretary of State.

He is no more culpable than any other Labour Minister of that parliament.

He is one of the best communicators of the Labour front bench and has also the advantage of relatively modest upbringing in Liverpool, rather than the nepotistic inner circle of PPE MPs.

macisback said:

Anybody who thinks Burnham has any ability or aptitude to be Labour leader or chancellor must be totally deluded. Mid-Staffs is all that needs to be said but I will add he must be the most odious, smug, careerist brown-noser in UK politics today and that is saying something. Balls and Miliband may not be ideal but both are a great deal more preferable to Burnham.

Tim/TSE - Mike's told you not to mention Tim's smears again and Tim you're not to mention those smears you've made in the past re Plato.

Please desist.

This topic is now closed.

Umunna now in to 10/1. Was 25/1.

Foxinsox But Major had worked for Standard Chartered Bank and passed banking exams so had financial experience in the real world.

Verulamius If you include the 'E' in PPE, of recent Chancellors, Lawson, Jenkins, Wilson was an economics academic when he was shadow chancellor

Ken Clarke was arguably the best of the post war chancellors, and was a QC.

Like all successful politicians he had a staff who gave good advice. Gordon Brown had Balls and McBride.

HYUFD said:

Foxinsox But Major had worked for Standard Chartered Bank and passed banking exams so had financial experience in the real world.

Verulamius If you include the 'E' in PPE, of recent Chancellors, Lawson, Jenkins, Wilson was an economics academic when he was shadow chancellor

Tim (and Labour) ran a campaign for years trying to undermine George and persuade tories that their problems would be solved if only they had a more voter friendly face as Chancellor. Looks pretty ridiculous now but there were times after the media inspired omnishambles when a less confident leader than Cameron might have wobbled.

He and they did not do this out of the goodness of their hearts or a desire to improve the tories' chances. They did this because they knew fine well that replacing a Chancellor or Shadow Chancellor is an admission of failure, an admission that the argument has been lost and that new arguments are needed. This not only destroys the Chancellor, it profoundly undermines the Leader. Even Maggie was eventually brought down when she fell out with her Chancellors and neither Dave nor Ed are close to being a Maggie.

For these very compelling reasons of presentation Ed Balls is going nowhere. Ed Miliband has already lost one Shadow Chancellor, to lose another before the election would make him look incompetent and to have poor judgement. It is a price he cannot afford to pay. Ed Balls might quit on him (as the postie did) but he will not be sacked.

Fox Burnham also has emotional intelligence, as can be seen in his Hillsborough statement, he also has a degree in English rather than PPE. I still think it will be Chukka Umunna though who will succeed Miliband if he falls short in 2015!

Fox Indeed, although Clarke read law and was also Home Secretary and Justice Minister, Lawson read PPE, including economics, and was arguably the most successful of recent Chancellors