politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The great Alabama polling Gamble. Robo calls v human interview

This race is working out kind of weird

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/940418123332759552

The only thing certain is that no one has a clue on this race - the pollsters admit as much quite explicitly - so Mr S is quite right to conclude that a Democrat win is the value bet. That doesn't mean it will happen, of course.

Oh, one thing is pretty certain - Moore is an inveterate liar:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2017/12/roy_moore_s_deceit_is_disqualifying.html

Veteran friend of Roy Moore reveals they went to an UNDERAGE Vietnam BROTHEL but left in disgust while the Senate-hopeful's wife says they can't be anti-Semites because their attorney is a JEW

When do we get the result?

I'll take a punt on Jones. Fox News polls are usually prett good.

BBC is reporting US ambassador to UK saying that Trump will visit us next year. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42319018

New Year job; start making ‘welcome’ placards. Or something!!!!

"Labour clears MP Clive Lewis of sexual harassment"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42318625

Has Ms Chakrabarti been busy?

This is a problem that her hideous inquiry has caused: such an obvious whitewash will mean that all other 'inquiries' by the Labour party will be seen in the same manner. Sadly for the accused and the accusers, and especially the truth.

Casino_Royale said:

OldKingCole said:

BBC is reporting US ambassador to UK saying that Trump will visit us next year. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42319018

New Year job; start making ‘welcome’ placards. Or something!!!!

I'm struggling to see any advantage we'd get from that.

Even if everything went perfectly he could turn on the head of a pin just a few days after and do something very much not in our mutual best interests.

Quite. Unless there’s a major deal to announce between the two countries, the story will be that the President is in town and lots of people are unhappy about it.

Nigelb said:

The only thing certain is that no one has a clue on this race - the pollsters admit as much quite explicitly - so Mr S is quite right to conclude that a Democrat win is the value bet. That doesn't mean it will happen, of course.

Oh, one thing is pretty certain - Moore is an inveterate liar:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2017/12/roy_moore_s_deceit_is_disqualifying.html

And a terrible judge, and probably a terrible senator.

Maybe somebody got fed the wrong name on who was going to be cleared of suggestions of sexually inappropriate conduct?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42318625

I've just received an e-mail with "the first quarterly newsletter" from the people who empty my septic tank.

It's official: the internet has now gone too far.

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

I've just received an e-mail with "the first quarterly newsletter" from the people who empty my septic tank.

It's official: the internet has now gone too far.

Is it full of shit?

I don't even want to open it and have a look....

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

I've just received an e-mail with "the first quarterly newsletter" from the people who empty my septic tank.

It's official: the internet has now gone too far.

Is it full of shit?

I don't even want to open it and have a look....

The tank or the letter?

O/T but does anyone have an anatomically correct male brass monkey I could borrow?

I have formulated a hypothesis and now I want to test it.

Edit - I have also just seen someone trying to take a Vauxhall Astra up a 1 in 8.

It did not end well...

logical_song said:

Shy bigots?
"Moore — who has been accused of pursuing teenage girls while in his 30s — leads in most polls conducted via automated telephone interviews or online, in which respondents don’t have to interact with another human being to complete the survey."
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/alabama-senate-moore-jones-polls-290501

That's the most likely explanation. But there are others:

Are women, for example, less likely to answer robocalls?
Or older voters?
Or African Americans?

I don't know the answer to the question, but it would be interesting to see if robocalls tended to show bigger Republican vote shares in NJ/Virginia, for instance.

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

I suspect Alabama will go 52:48 for Moore, and I will rip up my (very small) Jones betslip, and say to myself "great value loser, rcs1000".

Do you really talk to yourself in the third person?

That's like Caesar Plus

Yes we do.

MarqueeMark said:

In 1983, Louisiana Governor Edwin Edwards quipped to reporters "The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy".

This race is becoming the living embodiment of that quip. Just what does it take to break tribal politics in America?

Maybe it is time for the Democrats to quietly suggest he likes pineapple on his pizza...

Roy Moore would surely lose if it was revealed that he had a boyfriend, or had voted for Hillary Clinton.

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Brooke, not the first time the Germans have got bogged down in the snow, to their great consternation.

Interesting article on so-called 'skin betting':
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42311533

The gaming industry disputes that it's gambling, I believe.

I saw a video recently indicating that one publisher has applied for a patent for a system whereby if you're killed in multiplayer you're informed if your killer had a better weapon, and the same publisher has apparently applied for a patent to enable matchmaking that deliberately matches players wildly different in level and equipment. In short, it's aiming to maximise envy to get you to spend on virtual items (so-called 'pay to win').

I play videogames but never multiplayer, so this doesn't affect me directly at all, but I do think it's quite concerning.

Of course, lots of money has been shovelled into games before. I forget the title, might be EVE Online, but some virtual space battles have destroyed literally hundreds of thousands of pounds' worth of spacecraft, if not millions'.

rcs1000 said:

I suspect Alabama will go 52:48 for Moore, and I will rip up my (very small) Jones betslip, and say to myself "great value loser, rcs1000".

I've cashed out for a free bet on Jones. On reflection after last year I am sick of good value losers on American politics.

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Brooke, not the first time the Germans have got bogged down in the snow, to their great consternation.

Interesting article on so-called 'skin betting':
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42311533

The gaming industry disputes that it's gambling, I believe.

I saw a video recently indicating that one publisher has applied for a patent for a system whereby if you're killed in multiplayer you're informed if your killer had a better weapon, and the same publisher has apparently applied for a patent to enable matchmaking that deliberately matches players wildly different in level and equipment. In short, it's aiming to maximise envy to get you to spend on virtual items (so-called 'pay to win').

I play videogames but never multiplayer, so this doesn't affect me directly at all, but I do think it's quite concerning.

Of course, lots of money has been shovelled into games before. I forget the title, might be EVE Online, but some virtual space battles have destroyed literally hundreds of thousands of pounds' worth of spacecraft, if not millions'.

https://youtu.be/US92PR1tI1o

Mr. 1000, I used to visit the Escapist, and watch Zero Punctuation, regularly, but it's been a while.

Do enjoy his review style. I think the only one he got wrong was when he completely missed the point with The Last Of Us.

Mr. Teacher, it's rare for him to praise anything. He was partly nice about Dragon's Dogma and liked XCOM: Enemy Unknown and Portal, but (from memory, maybe he's become nice in the last couple of years) that's about it.

Mr. 1000, well, he's been doing it for a while.

And in a world where YouTubers cement their heads inside microwaves, I think he's probably still the right side of sane

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Teacher, it's rare for him to praise anything. He was partly nice about Dragon's Dogma and liked XCOM: Enemy Unknown and Portal, but (from memory, maybe he's become nice in the last couple of years) that's about it.

He liked Doom. (Which, by the way, is rather good fun on the Switch.)

Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).

JosiasJessop said:

"Labour clears MP Clive Lewis of sexual harassment"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42318625

Has Ms Chakrabarti been busy?

This is a problem that her hideous inquiry has caused: such an obvious whitewash will mean that all other 'inquiries' by the Labour party will be seen in the same manner. Sadly for the accused and the accusers, and especially the truth.

Whereas if Damien Green is cleared, it's a case of those lying cops trying to dirty the reputation of a decent and honest Tory.......

DavidL said:

Why has May not called another election on the back of the Yougov? Is she frit?

Hasn't had time to go for a walk through the Welsh hills yet, give her time....

Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:

https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/940335925078437888

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Teacher, it's rare for him to praise anything. He was partly nice about Dragon's Dogma and liked XCOM: Enemy Unknown and Portal, but (from memory, maybe he's become nice in the last couple of years) that's about it.

He liked Witcher 3 and is a big fan of Dark Souls.

old_labour said:

Veteran friend of Roy Moore reveals they went to an UNDERAGE Vietnam BROTHEL but left in disgust while the Senate-hopeful's wife says they can't be anti-Semites because their attorney is a JEW

"I Beg Your Pardon?" Of The Week

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:

https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/940335925078437888

Belgium doing well.

logical_song said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:

https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/940335925078437888

Belgium doing well.

Are those re-exports through Rotterdam? I'm assuming Rotterdam is in Belgium.

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

Why has May not called another election on the back of the Yougov? Is she frit?

Still mulling over manifesto ideas - on how to piss off the core vote.....

Tory voters: "We support the party that makes hard decisions, and is for sound money, unlike the moon-on-a-stick Labourites"

May: "Social care is collapsing and wealthy voters need to pay more"

Tory voters: ".....we didn't mean like that, though"

edmundintokyo said:

This race is working out kind of weird

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/940418123332759552

I think he got caught between the parable of the sower and the parable of the prodigal son.

Mr. Teacher, hope you're fully recovered.

And I agree entirely on The Witcher 3. It's an outstandingly good game, the only drawback being it makes my fat PS4 scream like a jet engine at times.

Between it and The Last Of Us, I'm wondering if the secret ingredient to gaming excellence is a surrogate father-daughter relationship.

On Topic RMICISFA

MarqueeMark said:

logical_song said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:

https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/940335925078437888

Belgium doing well.

And Ireland not too shabby...

I wonder how much due to the low corp tax rate.....

Fysics_Teacher said:

logical_song said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:

https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/940335925078437888

Belgium doing well.

Are those re-exports through Rotterdam? I'm assuming Rotterdam is in Belgium.

Good job your handle isn't "Jograffy_Teacher"!

Morning all

Well, as might have been expected given the torrent of triumphalism on Saturday (anyone would think getting a deal on Friday was timed for the weekend press), May's and the Conservatives' numbers have moved a little higher in the new polling.

My view remains, for all the furore, the Devil remains in the detail. We have to pay at least £35 billion, maybe £40 billion and I suspect a great deal more to the EU that won't come into the public domain. We remain effectively members until April 2021 though politically we will have departed two years previously and will be completely impotent by-standers.

The Irish border question is the classic example of kicking the empty can of Guinness down the road. A fudge to satisfy the DUP leaves a lot of practical questions unresolved. Perhaps one of the more contentious areas will be the right for spouses (and other family members ?) of EU nationals currently resident here to come while it seems EU nationals will remain eligible for child benefit which seems a little odd given the determination of the LEAVE campaign to ensure the benefits system in the UK wasn't abused.

Good to see "criminality checks" being introduced for new arrivals but presumably the criminals already here will be fine until they are caught and presumably deported.

Is it a good deal ? In parts, yes, and like all negotiations we have gained in some areas and conceded in others. Naturally, those elements supporting the Government have accentuated the "wins" and not said very much at all about the concessions and the compromises. That might explain the froth and the triumphalist euphoria - it's easy to tell a nice story with a happy ending - much harder to tell the whole story including the less palatable elements,

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).

If they voted last November I expect they will be able to vote today but even a 100% black turnout would not be enough for Jones to win given they largely vote Democrat anyway.

If Jones wins it will be white female and young and independent voters who will be decisive

Do they largely vote Democrat anyway? Or do they largely not vote?

90%+ of the black vote normally votes Democrat, Obama got it over 95%.

The key shift in the state is the white vote, Jones is getting about a third of the white vote in Alabama whereas only about 10 to 15% of the white vote in Alabama went for Obama and Hillary

SandyRentool said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

logical_song said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:

https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/940335925078437888

Belgium doing well.

Are those re-exports through Rotterdam? I'm assuming Rotterdam is in Belgium.

Good job your handle isn't "Jograffy_Teacher"!

I’m rubbish on capital cities in pub quizzes too. I was thinking of Antwerp.

Mr. Thompson, interesting suggestion.

Mr. Teacher, the music's excellent too, particularly the Skellige theme.

OT. Just when you think Brexit is going to carry us to that magic money tree in the sky along come the yanks to douse us in reality.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/12/no-deal-brexit-cost-everyone-uk-1585-us-thinktank

@georgeeaton: Inflation up to 3.1% (highest since 2012). UK has the lowest growth and highest inflation of any major EU economy.

Despite Brexit...

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).

If they voted last November I expect they will be able to vote today but even a 100% black turnout would not be enough for Jones to win given they largely vote Democrat anyway.

If Jones wins it will be white female and young and independent voters who will be decisive

Do they largely vote Democrat anyway? Or do they largely not vote?

90%+ of the black vote normally votes Democrat, Obama got it over 95%.

The key shift in the state is the white vote, Jones is getting about a third of the white vote in Alabama whereas only about 10 to 15% of the white vote in Alabama went for Obama and Hillary

There's 90% turnout for black voters normally? Obama got 95% turnout? That's incredible in a nation with an average of 54.9% turnout for Obama's re-election in 2012.

Or maybe you didn't read what I wrote correctly.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Thompson, interesting suggestion.

Mr. Teacher, the music's excellent too, particularly the Skellige theme.

I also spent a lot of time playing Gwent.

In-game music can make a huge difference to a game. Skyrim and Dragons Age Inquisition both have great music too, often diegetic.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).

If they voted last November I expect they will be able to vote today but even a 100% black turnout would not be enough for Jones to win given they largely vote Democrat anyway.

If Jones wins it will be white female and young and independent voters who will be decisive

Do they largely vote Democrat anyway? Or do they largely not vote?

90%+ of the black vote normally votes Democrat, Obama got it over 95%.

The key shift in the state is the white vote, Jones is getting about a third of the white vote in Alabama whereas only about 10 to 15% of the white vote in Alabama went for Obama and Hillary

There's 90% turnout for black voters normally? Obama got 95% turnout? That's incredible in a nation with an average of 54.9% turnout for Obama's re-election in 2012.

Or maybe you didn't read what I wrote correctly.

As I said black turnout is not going to decisively change this race, the white vote, especially the female white vote will do but be pedantic if you wish

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).

If they voted last November I expect they will be able to vote today but even a 100% black turnout would not be enough for Jones to win given they largely vote Democrat anyway.

If Jones wins it will be white female and young and independent voters who will be decisive

Do they largely vote Democrat anyway? Or do they largely not vote?

90%+ of the black vote normally votes Democrat, Obama got it over 95%.

The key shift in the state is the white vote, Jones is getting about a third of the white vote in Alabama whereas only about 10 to 15% of the white vote in Alabama went for Obama and Hillary

There's 90% turnout for black voters normally? Obama got 95% turnout? That's incredible in a nation with an average of 54.9% turnout for Obama's re-election in 2012.

Or maybe you didn't read what I wrote correctly.

As I said black turnout is not going to decisively change this race, the white vote, especially the female white vote will do but be pedantic if you wish

Not decisively alone but your claim that blacks already vote decisively for Democrats so there's no room for improvement isn't correct - they largely don't vote at all. If they turnout for Jones that will make a significant difference.

Given the dominance of the GOP in Alabama there will need to be many significant differences for Jones to win and that is but one piece in the puzzle but it shouldn't be ignored or dismissed.

Mr. Teacher, not sure whether it's out or in beta, but there's a 'full' Gwent card game. I think it's going to be free.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).

If they voted last November I expect they will be able to vote today but even a 100% black turnout would not be enough for Jones to win given they largely vote Democrat anyway.

If Jones wins it will be white female and young and independent voters who will be decisive

Do they largely vote Democrat anyway? Or do they largely not vote?

90%+ of the black vote normally votes Democrat, Obama got it over 95%.

The key shift in the state is the white vote, Jones is getting about a third of the white vote in Alabama whereas only about 10 to 15% of the white vote in Alabama went for Obama and Hillary

There's 90% turnout for black voters normally? Obama got 95% turnout? That's incredible in a nation with an average of 54.9% turnout for Obama's re-election in 2012.

Or maybe you didn't read what I wrote correctly.

As I said black turnout is not going to decisively change this race, the white vote, especially the female white vote will do but be pedantic if you wish

Not decisively alone but your claim that blacks already vote decisively for Democrats so there's no room for improvement isn't correct - they largely don't vote at all. If they turnout for Jones that will make a significant difference.

Given the dominance of the GOP in Alabama there will need to be many significant differences for Jones to win and that is but one piece in the puzzle but it shouldn't be ignored or dismissed.

In 2012 black turnout exceeded white turnout, so wrong.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/in-2012-black-voter-turnout-surpassed-white-turnout/

Romney still won Alabama by a 23% margin over Obama

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Alabama,_2012