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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The great Alabama polling Gamble. Robo calls v human interviewers
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https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/940418123332759552
Oh, one thing is pretty certain - Moore is an inveterate liar:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2017/12/roy_moore_s_deceit_is_disqualifying.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42314410
As the White House argues that an election victory absolves you of all crimes:
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/trump-accusers-sexual-harassment-289309
Which is an argument fit for a banana republic.
A Jones win makes the Senate 51-49, which if the retiring John McCain keeps up his independence makes for a few interesting votes next year.
New Year job; start making ‘welcome’ placards. Or something!!!!
Even if everything went perfectly he could turn on the head of a pin just a few days after and do something very much not in our mutual best interests.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42318625
Has Ms Chakrabarti been busy?
This is a problem that her hideous inquiry has caused: such an obvious whitewash will mean that all other 'inquiries' by the Labour party will be seen in the same manner. Sadly for the accused and the accusers, and especially the truth.
This race is becoming the living embodiment of that quip. Just what does it take to break tribal politics in America?
Maybe it is time for the Democrats to quietly suggest he likes pineapple on his pizza...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42318625
"Moore — who has been accused of pursuing teenage girls while in his 30s — leads in most polls conducted via automated telephone interviews or online, in which respondents don’t have to interact with another human being to complete the survey."
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/alabama-senate-moore-jones-polls-290501
It's official: the internet has now gone too far.
I have formulated a hypothesis and now I want to test it.
Edit - I have also just seen someone trying to take a Vauxhall Astra up a 1 in 8.
It did not end well...
Are women, for example, less likely to answer robocalls?
Or older voters?
Or African Americans?
I don't know the answer to the question, but it would be interesting to see if robocalls tended to show bigger Republican vote shares in NJ/Virginia, for instance.
That's like Caesar Plus
http://plus.faz.net/unternehmen/2017-12-12/still-und-starr-ruht-der-verkehr/90867.html
... just saying.
Mr. Brooke, not the first time the Germans have got bogged down in the snow, to their great consternation.
Interesting article on so-called 'skin betting':
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42311533
The gaming industry disputes that it's gambling, I believe.
I saw a video recently indicating that one publisher has applied for a patent for a system whereby if you're killed in multiplayer you're informed if your killer had a better weapon, and the same publisher has apparently applied for a patent to enable matchmaking that deliberately matches players wildly different in level and equipment. In short, it's aiming to maximise envy to get you to spend on virtual items (so-called 'pay to win').
I play videogames but never multiplayer, so this doesn't affect me directly at all, but I do think it's quite concerning.
Of course, lots of money has been shovelled into games before. I forget the title, might be EVE Online, but some virtual space battles have destroyed literally hundreds of thousands of pounds' worth of spacecraft, if not millions'.
Turnout is key, Democrats appear more motivated than Republicans and that could give the edge to Jones especially if there is high minority turnout. On a normal special election turnout Moore should win
Do enjoy his review style. I think the only one he got wrong was when he completely missed the point with The Last Of Us.
And in a world where YouTubers cement their heads inside microwaves, I think he's probably still the right side of sane
I've heard good things about Doom elsewhere too, though.
It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.
Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/940335925078437888
Hmm. It might have been Demon's Souls [the first game], but I recall Zero Punctuation ragging on it quite a bit.
May: "Social care is collapsing and wealthy voters need to pay more"
Tory voters: ".....we didn't mean like that, though"
If Jones wins it will be white female and young and independent voters who will be decisive
And I agree entirely on The Witcher 3. It's an outstandingly good game, the only drawback being it makes my fat PS4 scream like a jet engine at times.
Between it and The Last Of Us, I'm wondering if the secret ingredient to gaming excellence is a surrogate father-daughter relationship.
I can't think of any big Belgian pharmaceutical companies (Solvay?), so I presume there tax advantages to manufacturing drugs in the country.
Well, as might have been expected given the torrent of triumphalism on Saturday (anyone would think getting a deal on Friday was timed for the weekend press), May's and the Conservatives' numbers have moved a little higher in the new polling.
My view remains, for all the furore, the Devil remains in the detail. We have to pay at least £35 billion, maybe £40 billion and I suspect a great deal more to the EU that won't come into the public domain. We remain effectively members until April 2021 though politically we will have departed two years previously and will be completely impotent by-standers.
The Irish border question is the classic example of kicking the empty can of Guinness down the road. A fudge to satisfy the DUP leaves a lot of practical questions unresolved. Perhaps one of the more contentious areas will be the right for spouses (and other family members ?) of EU nationals currently resident here to come while it seems EU nationals will remain eligible for child benefit which seems a little odd given the determination of the LEAVE campaign to ensure the benefits system in the UK wasn't abused.
Good to see "criminality checks" being introduced for new arrivals but presumably the criminals already here will be fine until they are caught and presumably deported.
Is it a good deal ? In parts, yes, and like all negotiations we have gained in some areas and conceded in others. Naturally, those elements supporting the Government have accentuated the "wins" and not said very much at all about the concessions and the compromises. That might explain the froth and the triumphalist euphoria - it's easy to tell a nice story with a happy ending - much harder to tell the whole story including the less palatable elements,
The key shift in the state is the white vote, Jones is getting about a third of the white vote in Alabama whereas only about 10 to 15% of the white vote in Alabama went for Obama and Hillary
If intra-EU trade was reclassified as not being exports then I suspect the graphic might look very different.
Mr. Teacher, the music's excellent too, particularly the Skellige theme.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/12/no-deal-brexit-cost-everyone-uk-1585-us-thinktank
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/21/british-people-far-more-well-travelled-americans/
Despite Brexit...
Or maybe you didn't read what I wrote correctly.
In-game music can make a huge difference to a game. Skyrim and Dragons Age Inquisition both have great music too, often diegetic.
Ireland's manufacturing is driven by being the location of choice for US biological manufacturing. Belgium is Takeda (Solvay) and UCB.
Germany is Bayer, Boehringer and Merck.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42320052
Given the dominance of the GOP in Alabama there will need to be many significant differences for Jones to win and that is but one piece in the puzzle but it shouldn't be ignored or dismissed.
One thing to bear in mind is that the volume of exports will depend on the therapy areas each company is focusing on. Something like ibuprofen will be high volume, low margin while a rare cancer drug will be low volume, high margin
.....though if you fancy making a few quid on your expenses nudge nudge wink wink
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGrvQ1c5khU.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/in-2012-black-voter-turnout-surpassed-white-turnout/
Romney still won Alabama by a 23% margin over Obama
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Alabama,_2012