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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s not easy being Green but he’s expected to be cleared on W

SystemSystem Posts: 12,556
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s not easy being Green but he’s expected to be cleared on Wednesday

Damian Green will keep his job as First Minister, I am told by three well-placed sources. There should be confirmation on Wednesday https://t.co/WqEN3lAE3z

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,117
    edited December 2017
    Apparently the canvas returns are saying that Mr Green has secured the support of Mrs Palm and her five lovely daughters.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    What a difference a day makes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,297
    So what was all that stuff about him not being in the HoC's today, nudge nudge, all about?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    Bad news if he did wrong but it cannot be proven, good news if he hasn't done wrong, and very good news if it means disgraceful police behaviour is not vindicated.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/940319097639915520
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/940319097639915520

    If it took a few days, that's a few more days that a lot would have thought it would taken, which means it cannot be as bad as all that.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: Interesting polling coming tonight at 10pm
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Interesting polling coming tonight at 10pm

    'Interesting polling', two of the most flexible words in the English language when combined together. A lack of movement has turned out to be 'interesting' on occasion.

    Let's see, something on the royals, united ireland, right/wrong to Brexit, etc etc
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Interesting polling coming tonight at 10pm

    'Interesting polling', two of the most flexible words in the English language when combined together. A lack of movement has turned out to be 'interesting' on occasion.

    Let's see, something on the royals, united ireland, right/wrong to Brexit, etc etc
    I did do a poll today on the Brexit deal and very thorough on politics.

    I was even positive on Mrs May.

    If it is good enough for Ken Clarke, then it's good enough for me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Interesting polling coming tonight at 10pm

    'Interesting polling', two of the most flexible words in the English language when combined together. A lack of movement has turned out to be 'interesting' on occasion.

    Let's see, something on the royals, united ireland, right/wrong to Brexit, etc etc
    I was even positive on Mrs May.
    TSE may be ill.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/940319097639915520

    Surely no one seriously listens to that old climate change denier?!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/940319097639915520

    Parturient montes, nascetur ridiculus mus.

    Seriously, is that all you've got?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/940319097639915520

    Surely no one seriously listens to that old climate change denier?!
    Yes - it's pretty desperate stuff when the attempts to create Tory splits are reliant on this kind of thing. Watching the PM's statement earlier the great frontbench/backbench dissonance was all on the other side.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,601
    Benpointer said:

    Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.

    On current polling May does at least as well as any other Tory contender against Corbyn, no poll gives Labour a big enough lead for a clear working majority and several named alternatives would get a lower Tory voteshare than she has. Having scrapped the hated dementia tax plan and agreed FTA talks with the EU and now with key ally Green staying in post she ends the year in a stronger position than she was in in June
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Guido Fawkes won't be pleased, he's been running anti-Green stories for weeks. Personal bad blood perhaps?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    edited December 2017
    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/940293189495410688
    What does he mean? Repainted as in 'reiterated' or repainted as in 'a different place'?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.

    On current polling May does at least as well as any other Tory contender against Corbyn, no poll gives Labour a big enough lead for a clear working majority and several named alternatives would get a lower Tory voteshare than she has. Having scrapped the hated dementia tax plan and agreed FTA talks with the EU and now with key ally Green staying in post she ends the year in a stronger position than she was in in June
    Maybe she should call a snap election? :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    Benpointer said:

    Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.

    Oh, IDK - she's still weak, she's just stablized so as to make an immediate bloodletting unappetizing.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    felix said:

    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/940319097639915520

    Surely no one seriously listens to that old climate change denier?!
    Yes - it's pretty desperate stuff when the attempts to create Tory splits are reliant on this kind of thing. Watching the PM's statement earlier the great frontbench/backbench dissonance was all on the other side.
    Surely the views of the Chancellor who held office for most of Thatcher's premiership cannot be so easily dismissed?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,601
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.

    On current polling May does at least as well as any other Tory contender against Corbyn, no poll gives Labour a big enough lead for a clear working majority and several named alternatives would get a lower Tory voteshare than she has. Having scrapped the hated dementia tax plan and agreed FTA talks with the EU and now with key ally Green staying in post she ends the year in a stronger position than she was in in June
    Maybe she should call a snap election? :lol:
    I think we can safely rule that out though
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.

    Oh, IDK - she's still weak, she's just stablized so as to make an immediate bloodletting unappetizing.
    One way of putting it, I suppose. She has been incredibly successful in that she has - so far - achieved the objective of the whole EU operation. The Tory Party has not yet split itself asunder.

    But there is still time.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    I sent a DPA Breach Notification email to the ICO today, just in case nobody else had thought to. I won't go into any more detail, I respect requests from the moderators here.

    But I'll share my email if I'm allowed to; it's brief and I'm sure not at all anything for Mike to worry about (I don't even use the four letter b word!). Should I mail it to @PBModerator ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/940319097639915520

    Surely no one seriously listens to that old climate change denier?!
    Yes - it's pretty desperate stuff when the attempts to create Tory splits are reliant on this kind of thing. Watching the PM's statement earlier the great frontbench/backbench dissonance was all on the other side.
    Surely the views of the Chancellor who held office for most of Thatcher's premiership cannot be so easily dismissed?
    Being important a long time ago doesn't mean someone is now. I don't discount it, particularly with the Tories, but it's not automatically big news either.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.

    On current polling May does at least as well as any other Tory contender against Corbyn, no poll gives Labour a big enough lead for a clear working majority and several named alternatives would get a lower Tory voteshare than she has. Having scrapped the hated dementia tax plan and agreed FTA talks with the EU and now with key ally Green staying in post she ends the year in a stronger position than she was in in June
    Maybe she should call a snap election? :lol:
    I think we can safely rule that out though
    I may well remind you of this post come February! :wink:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/940319097639915520

    Surely no one seriously listens to that old climate change denier?!
    Yes - it's pretty desperate stuff when the attempts to create Tory splits are reliant on this kind of thing. Watching the PM's statement earlier the great frontbench/backbench dissonance was all on the other side.
    Surely the views of the Chancellor who held office for most of Thatcher's premiership cannot be so easily dismissed?

    They are not even worthy of the consideration required to dismiss them
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.

    On current polling May does at least as well as any other Tory contender against Corbyn, no poll gives Labour a big enough lead for a clear working majority and several named alternatives would get a lower Tory voteshare than she has. Having scrapped the hated dementia tax plan and agreed FTA talks with the EU and now with key ally Green staying in post she ends the year in a stronger position than she was in in June
    Maybe she should call a snap election? :lol:
    I think we can safely rule that out though
    I may well remind you of this post come February! :wink:
    No election before January 25th for sure!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,845
    So we have a 'know-all' saying that Green is safe.

    Who was the 'know-all' saying that Green was finished yesterday ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    another_richard said:

    So we have a 'know-all' saying that Green is safe.

    Who was the 'know-all' saying that Green was finished yesterday ?

    It was at least a different 'know-all' (Nick Robinson IIRC). But it does show that these political journalists don't always have their finger on the right pulse.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,845
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/940319097639915520

    If it took a few days, that's a few more days that a lot would have thought it would taken, which means it cannot be as bad as all that.
    I'm curious as to when Lawson had his great change on the EU.

    When he was Chancellor he was all for sterling shadowing the DM and was a supporter of sterling joining the ERM. The combined effect being allowing inflation to get out of control followed by a recession.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    On topic, if Pesto has indeed been told two days before Green himself, that's a terrible indictment of the disregard for confidentiality and common decency at Westminster!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/940319097639915520

    Surely no one seriously listens to that old climate change denier?!
    Yes - it's pretty desperate stuff when the attempts to create Tory splits are reliant on this kind of thing. Watching the PM's statement earlier the great frontbench/backbench dissonance was all on the other side.
    Surely the views of the Chancellor who held office for most of Thatcher's premiership cannot be so easily dismissed?
    That was then. This is now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,297
    Law enforcement officials don't believe the passageway was the intended target since the 'low-tech' bomb - attached to Ullah with Velcro and zip ties - did not explode fully.

    The crude device was made from a pipe, a 9-volt battery, matches and Christmass tree lights, senior law enforcement officials told NBC News. The chemical explosive appears to have ignited but the pipe itself did not burst. Screws were found at the scene, indicating that they may have filled the pipe and were intended to be used as shrapnel.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5167317/Explosion-reported-NYC-Port-Authority-bus-terminal.html

    Lucky escape.....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,845
    Benpointer said:

    another_richard said:

    So we have a 'know-all' saying that Green is safe.

    Who was the 'know-all' saying that Green was finished yesterday ?

    It was at least a different 'know-all' (Nick Robinson IIRC). But it does show that these political journalists don't always have their finger on the right pulse.
    I suspect there's a lot of trying to create a story one way of another - twatter really is a 'make work' tool for these people.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,063
    another_richard said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/940319097639915520

    If it took a few days, that's a few more days that a lot would have thought it would taken, which means it cannot be as bad as all that.
    I'm curious as to when Lawson had his great change on the EU.

    When he was Chancellor he was all for sterling shadowing the DM and was a supporter of sterling joining the ERM. The combined effect being allowing inflation to get out of control followed by a recession.
    I would have guessed it was Black Wednesday followed by Maastricht. This maiden speech in the Lords suggests a growing Euroscepticism:

    http://www.ukpol.co.uk/nigel-lawson-1993-maiden-speech-in-the-house-of-lords/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    Both the Conservatives and Labour have rejected petitions calling for a second EU referendum to be held.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42308552

    Well at least I'm finally clear on Labour's policy on that score.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,297
    kle4 said:

    Both the Conservatives and Labour have rejected petitions calling for a second EU referendum to be held.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42308552

    Well at least I'm finally clear on Labour's policy on that score.

    At least for today.....it will probably be different next week.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,845
    kle4 said:

    Both the Conservatives and Labour have rejected petitions calling for a second EU referendum to be held.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42308552

    Well at least I'm finally clear on Labour's policy on that score.

    ' The largest one has attracted more than 130,000 signatures since September.

    A similar petition last year attracted 4.1 million signatures. '
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,845
    ydoethur said:

    another_richard said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/940319097639915520

    If it took a few days, that's a few more days that a lot would have thought it would taken, which means it cannot be as bad as all that.
    I'm curious as to when Lawson had his great change on the EU.

    When he was Chancellor he was all for sterling shadowing the DM and was a supporter of sterling joining the ERM. The combined effect being allowing inflation to get out of control followed by a recession.
    I would have guessed it was Black Wednesday followed by Maastricht. This maiden speech in the Lords suggests a growing Euroscepticism:

    http://www.ukpol.co.uk/nigel-lawson-1993-maiden-speech-in-the-house-of-lords/
    Reading that it seems that Lawson was opposing a referendum on the Maastricht treaty but expressing his opposition to a single currency.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,297
    Apparently under the GOP tax plan there are a small number of people who will see a marginal tax rate of a 100% on some of their income!
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    I was just thinking how the PB archive has turned into a massive and detailed chronicle of 21st century history woven into a balanced representation of political opinions in the UK.

    It's a credit to its creator and its prolific posters. I'm grateful for both the news service here, and, on the whole, the most civilised, balanced and thorough political discussion on the internet.

    I'm a little concerned that I have to use waybackmachine (I think..) to find old comments. I love to look back and see how we all reacted to events, and get a pretty full range of opinion on pretty much everything that's happened since PB.

    Do you have copies of all the old comments? If not, can you get them back?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Apparently under the GOP tax plan there are a small number of people who will see a marginal tax rate of a 100% on some of their income!

    The similarities between Trump and Corbyn (and their supporters) are so uncanny.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,344
    kle4 said:

    Both the Conservatives and Labour have rejected petitions calling for a second EU referendum to be held.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42308552

    Well at least I'm finally clear on Labour's policy on that score.

    It would be entertaining to watch Corbyn justify voting for Remain on a second referendum.....

    I suspect he would not be delighted to be faced with that all over again. So let’s just not go there, eh?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Whitehall source says they don’t recognise reports that Damien Green will be cleared on Wednesday and suggestions that a final decision has been made are inaccurate
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited December 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Apparently under the GOP tax plan there are a small number of people who will see a marginal tax rate of a 100% on some of their income!

    The similarities between Trump and Corbyn (and their supporters) are so uncanny.
    Yeah, both groups of supporters treat them as if they were deities.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,601
    edited December 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Apparently under the GOP tax plan there are a small number of people who will see a marginal tax rate of a 100% on some of their income!

    The similarities between Trump and Corbyn (and their supporters) are so uncanny.
    Corbyn supporters are more like Berniebros, it is UKIP voters who are most like Trump supporters
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,297
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Whitehall source says they don’t recognise reports that Damien Green will be cleared on Wednesday and suggestions that a final decision has been made are inaccurate

    Wouldn’t be the first time peston talked crap.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Whitehall source says they don’t recognise reports that Damien Green will be cleared on Wednesday and suggestions that a final decision has been made are inaccurate

    Aren't the sources that said he was toast, and ones that said he was cleared, also Whitehall sources? Seriously, unless journalists are just making things up, there cannot be that many people in on the fine details of this, so why so many different accounts being leaked?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/940340505992409094
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Times/ YouGov Poll
    Voting intention has the Tories back ahead for the first time since the June election
    CON 42%(+2),
    LAB 41%(nc),
    LDEM 7%(nc)
    Changes on last week. Poll taken Sun/Mon
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,601
    edited December 2017
    Tories back in the lead! https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/940340505992409094
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Times/ YouGov Poll
    Voting intention has the Tories back ahead for the first time since the June election
    CON 42%(+2),
    LAB 41%(nc),
    LDEM 7%(nc)
    Changes on last week. Poll taken Sun/Mon

    Never trust polls anymore. But still, if you must have them, better to be ahead than not, if only to calm party nerves.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,297
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Times/ YouGov Poll
    Voting intention has the Tories back ahead for the first time since the June election
    CON 42%(+2),
    LAB 41%(nc),
    LDEM 7%(nc)
    Changes on last week. Poll taken Sun/Mon

    Tory surge klaxon!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/940340505992409094

    Corbynistas won’t be happy, although it is MOE. Be interesting to see any other findings in the poll.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    Given how wrong YouGov VI polls were at the general election, calm down.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    MarqueeMark said:

    kle4 said:

    Both the Conservatives and Labour have rejected petitions calling for a second EU referendum to be held.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42308552

    Well at least I'm finally clear on Labour's policy on that score.

    It would be entertaining to watch Corbyn justify voting for Remain on a second referendum.....

    I suspect he would not be delighted to be faced with that all over again. So let’s just not go there, eh?
    As a Remainer, would Theresa campaign to reject her own deal?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    Progress on Brexit looks like it’s given May a boost over Corbyn:

    37% now think she’d be the best PM (up 3), ahead of Corbyn on 28%(down 2) and don’t know 35%(-1).

    That’s a 9 pt lead, and it was a 4pt lead last week
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/940340505992409094

    RESULT!

    After watching an episode of the Crown, this poll is the icing on the cake. Floreat Britannia!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,297
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Whitehall source says they don’t recognise reports that Damien Green will be cleared on Wednesday and suggestions that a final decision has been made are inaccurate

    Aren't the sources that said he was toast, and ones that said he was cleared, also Whitehall sources? Seriously, unless journalists are just making things up, there cannot be that many people in on the fine details of this, so why so many different accounts being leaked?
    It seems to be the equivalent of this bloke down the pub, knows somebody who knows somebody who is distantly related to green said that.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,601
    edited December 2017
    New Yougov would give Tories 312 Labour 268, so Tories may still have enough seats to govern with DUP if SF don't take their seats and LDs abstain on a confidence vote
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    The_Apocalypse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/940340505992409094

    Corbynistas won’t be happy
    Why would that be? They were happy to disbelieve polls that looked before pre-election (and in fairness proven mostly correct, even if the Tories still came out on top), and happy to believe polls that indicated they would come out ahead post-election, now they just switch back to disbelief. Not even restricted to Corbynistas, that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    From the @YouGov @thetimes poll

    Who voters would most trust to negotiate Brexit, 32 per cent said Mrs May, 16 per cent said Mr Corbyn and 33 per cent said neither.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Given how wrong YouGov VI polls were at the general election, calm down.

    Aren’t you a Tory? You might as well be happy about this poll.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,117
    Gosh, crossover.

    May must stay!

    Jezza must go!

    Cable must make people remember that he's there.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    britainelects: On whether the government is handling Britain's exit from the EU well or badly:

    Well: 26% (+5)
    Badly: 57% (-7)

    via @YouGov, 10 - 11 Dec
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/940340505992409094

    RESULT!

    After watching an episode of the Crown
    Haven't made it past the first season yet, so very dull.

    On that score, watched most of The Handmaid's Tale on the plane back from China - good lord, I know the subject matter is meant to be bleak, but its so lacking in atmosphere and full of the same stupidly long silences and staring as with Mad Men (or at least the first season, which is all I saw) that it really takes away from how compelling it is supposed to be.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    From the @YouGov @thetimes poll

    26% thought the government was doing well (+5%) and 57% (-7%) thought they were doing badly

    Changes since last week
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/940340505992409094

    RESULT!

    After watching an episode of the Crown, this poll is the icing on the cake. Floreat Britannia!
    No it's not a RESULT, it's just another poll!

    With any luck it will make the Brexit head-bangers realise how politically damaging their pursuit of hard Brexit was.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    That said RoyalBlue may be overreacting a tad.
    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/940340505992409094

    Corbynistas won’t be happy
    Why would that be? They were happy to disbelieve polls that looked before pre-election (and in fairness proven mostly correct, even if the Tories still came out on top), and happy to believe polls that indicated they would come out ahead post-election, now they just switch back to disbelief. Not even restricted to Corbynistas, that.
    They disbelieved polls because they didn’t like them. Survation was believed among them a few weeks ago when it showed an eight point lead for example.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    Scott_P said:

    britainelects: On whether the government is handling Britain's exit from the EU well or badly:

    Well: 26% (+5)
    Badly: 57% (-7)

    via @YouGov, 10 - 11 Dec

    I like that a -31 counts as good in this scenario.

    Expect it to go down as everyone starts undermining it again, on both sides, until the next phase.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,601
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Given how wrong YouGov VI polls were at the general election, calm down.

    Yougov had the Tories ahead, they ended up ahead and it was yougov who first identified the falling Tory lead post dementia tax, they are now the first to identify a small Tory lead post EU agreement
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    The_Apocalypse said:

    That said RoyalBlue may be overreacting a tad.

    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/940340505992409094

    Corbynistas won’t be happy
    Why would that be? They were happy to disbelieve polls that looked before pre-election (and in fairness proven mostly correct, even if the Tories still came out on top), and happy to believe polls that indicated they would come out ahead post-election, now they just switch back to disbelief. Not even restricted to Corbynistas, that.
    They disbelieved polls because they didn’t like them. Survation was believed among them a few weeks ago when it showed an eight point lead for example.
    That was my point - they won't be any less happy at this one, as they'll simply disbelieve it in favour of the ones which look better.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    The_Apocalypse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Given how wrong YouGov VI polls were at the general election, calm down.

    Aren’t you a Tory? You might as well be happy about this poll.
    TSE wants the Tories to crash and burn so that the annointed one (GO) can come back to save them and the country.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    Who has the upper hand in the negotiations

    EU - 50%

    Give and take - 26%

    UK - 4%
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    MarqueeMark said:

    kle4 said:

    Both the Conservatives and Labour have rejected petitions calling for a second EU referendum to be held.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42308552

    Well at least I'm finally clear on Labour's policy on that score.

    It would be entertaining to watch Corbyn justify voting for Remain on a second referendum.....

    I suspect he would not be delighted to be faced with that all over again. So let’s just not go there, eh?
    There will be no second referendum on an in/out basis, simple reason when you think about it, if Westminster allowed one, the SNP could legitimately demand a re-run and nobody wants that, except of course the SNP. Any new referendum would be on to accept the details of the divorce or not, and that could open a bigger can of worms and is extremely unlikely.....
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    @kle4 My point is that they disbelieved polls because they produced results that made them unhappy. But this isn’t worth arguing over tbh.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Given how wrong YouGov VI polls were at the general election, calm down.

    Yougov had the Tories ahead, they ended up ahead and it was yougov who first identified the falling Tory lead post dementia tax, they are now the first to identify a small Tory lead post EU agreement
    You overlook the fact that Yougov had the Tories 7% ahead in their final poll, whereas they only won by 2.5%.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,091
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Who has the upper hand in the negotiations

    EU - 50%

    Give and take - 26%

    UK - 4%

    Boom.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    When will Brexit happen

    March 2019 - 1/3 of voters

    2020 - 14%

    After 2020 - 17%

    Never 10%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    The_Apocalypse said:

    But this isn’t worth arguing over tbh.

    Now that's no way to think - everything is worth arguing over. That;s UK politics!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    44 per cent said Britain was right to vote to leave and 45 per cent said it was the wrong choice.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    The most popular view is that the government continues on its current negotiating terms, a move backed by 43 per cent. Pollsters also asked whether there should be a second referendum, and 33 per cent said “yes”, 42 per cent said “no” and the rest did not know.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Who has the upper hand in the negotiations

    EU - 50%

    Give and take - 26%

    UK - 4%

    And people say the general public are stupid!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Who has the upper hand in the negotiations

    EU - 50%

    Give and take - 26%

    UK - 4%

    Boom.
    What does that prove? Even most leavers think the EU has the upper hand.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,601
    edited December 2017
    May's lead over Corbyn as best PM more than doubles in a week https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/940340966350819330
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    But this isn’t worth arguing over tbh.

    Now that's no way to think - everything is worth arguing over. That;s UK politics!
    Oh no it isn't!

    On a lighter note, this does show an interesting lack of insight:

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/940342978035507201
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    More from the @YouGov @thetimes poll

    Should there be a second referendum

    Yes - 33%

    No - 42%

    DK - 25%
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    New Yougov would give Tories 312 Labour 268, so Tories may still have enough seats to govern with DUP if SF don't take their seats and LDs abstain on a confidence vote

    Not quite. The Tory lead in June was 2.4% so this poll is still a swing of 0.7% in Labour's favour and would give 8 Labour gains at Tory expense - reducing the Tories to 310. Labour would also gain from the SNP.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Who has the upper hand in the negotiations

    EU - 50%

    Give and take - 26%

    UK - 4%

    4% are pretty deluded!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/profchalmers/status/940344329754865669
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Who has the upper hand in the negotiations

    EU - 50%

    Give and take - 26%

    UK - 4%

    Can’t believe this not with all the super positive spin from the BBC.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Benpointer said:

    On topic, if Pesto has indeed been told two days before Green himself, that's a terrible indictment of the disregard for confidentiality and common decency at Westminster!

    PMSL!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,297
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    44 per cent said Britain was right to vote to leave and 45 per cent said it was the wrong choice.

    IT doesn’t matter how many times they ask this question, the long term trend is not changing. People are entrenched in their view.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    More from the @YouGov @thetimes poll

    Should there be a second referendum

    Yes - 33%

    No - 42%

    DK - 25%

    BOOM !
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    edited December 2017
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Who has the upper hand in the negotiations

    EU - 50%

    Give and take - 26%

    UK - 4%

    Boom.
    What does that prove? Even most leavers think the EU has the upper hand.
    That - startlingly - is exactly what it does prove.

    Where have all the 'they need us more than we need them' Leavers gone?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,297
    edited December 2017
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/profchalmers/status/940344329754865669

    It was a move patented by Jeremy corbyn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,601
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Yougov would give Tories 312 Labour 268, so Tories may still have enough seats to govern with DUP if SF don't take their seats and LDs abstain on a confidence vote

    Not quite. The Tory lead in June was 2.4% so this poll is still a swing of 0.7% in Labour's favour and would give 8 Labour gains at Tory expense - reducing the Tories to 310. Labour would also gain from the SNP.
    So still Tories comfortably largest party even if you add on 7 Labour gains from the SNP
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/profchalmers/status/940344329754865669

    Theoretically possible, yes. If she can manage it, it will be one hell of a recovery (or one hell of an indictment of her colleagues, depending on how leading them to the next GE turns out).
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Who has the upper hand in the negotiations

    EU - 50%

    Give and take - 26%

    UK - 4%

    4% are pretty deluded!
    I thought it was 52% who were deluded?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Forgive my enthusiasm.

    On a serious point, it shows that the Conservative Party (and possibly even Theresa May!) is not irretrievably lost. As negotiations resume, but without the feverishly negative coverage of recent weeks, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 'handling Brexit well' figure tick up.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ITVAllegra: I understand @Jeremy_Hunt agrees with calls to increase NHS funds to French & German levels in next few years, funded by wealth tax.
This discussion has been closed.