politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s not easy being Green but he’s expected to be cleared on Wednesday
Damian Green will keep his job as First Minister, I am told by three well-placed sources. There should be confirmation on Wednesday https://t.co/WqEN3lAE3z
Bad news if he did wrong but it cannot be proven, good news if he hasn't done wrong, and very good news if it means disgraceful police behaviour is not vindicated.
'Interesting polling', two of the most flexible words in the English language when combined together. A lack of movement has turned out to be 'interesting' on occasion.
Let's see, something on the royals, united ireland, right/wrong to Brexit, etc etc
'Interesting polling', two of the most flexible words in the English language when combined together. A lack of movement has turned out to be 'interesting' on occasion.
Let's see, something on the royals, united ireland, right/wrong to Brexit, etc etc
I did do a poll today on the Brexit deal and very thorough on politics.
I was even positive on Mrs May.
If it is good enough for Ken Clarke, then it's good enough for me.
'Interesting polling', two of the most flexible words in the English language when combined together. A lack of movement has turned out to be 'interesting' on occasion.
Let's see, something on the royals, united ireland, right/wrong to Brexit, etc etc
Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.
Surely no one seriously listens to that old climate change denier?!
Yes - it's pretty desperate stuff when the attempts to create Tory splits are reliant on this kind of thing. Watching the PM's statement earlier the great frontbench/backbench dissonance was all on the other side.
Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.
On current polling May does at least as well as any other Tory contender against Corbyn, no poll gives Labour a big enough lead for a clear working majority and several named alternatives would get a lower Tory voteshare than she has. Having scrapped the hated dementia tax plan and agreed FTA talks with the EU and now with key ally Green staying in post she ends the year in a stronger position than she was in in June
Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.
On current polling May does at least as well as any other Tory contender against Corbyn, no poll gives Labour a big enough lead for a clear working majority and several named alternatives would get a lower Tory voteshare than she has. Having scrapped the hated dementia tax plan and agreed FTA talks with the EU and now with key ally Green staying in post she ends the year in a stronger position than she was in in June
Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.
Oh, IDK - she's still weak, she's just stablized so as to make an immediate bloodletting unappetizing.
Surely no one seriously listens to that old climate change denier?!
Yes - it's pretty desperate stuff when the attempts to create Tory splits are reliant on this kind of thing. Watching the PM's statement earlier the great frontbench/backbench dissonance was all on the other side.
Surely the views of the Chancellor who held office for most of Thatcher's premiership cannot be so easily dismissed?
Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.
On current polling May does at least as well as any other Tory contender against Corbyn, no poll gives Labour a big enough lead for a clear working majority and several named alternatives would get a lower Tory voteshare than she has. Having scrapped the hated dementia tax plan and agreed FTA talks with the EU and now with key ally Green staying in post she ends the year in a stronger position than she was in in June
Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.
Oh, IDK - she's still weak, she's just stablized so as to make an immediate bloodletting unappetizing.
One way of putting it, I suppose. She has been incredibly successful in that she has - so far - achieved the objective of the whole EU operation. The Tory Party has not yet split itself asunder.
I sent a DPA Breach Notification email to the ICO today, just in case nobody else had thought to. I won't go into any more detail, I respect requests from the moderators here.
But I'll share my email if I'm allowed to; it's brief and I'm sure not at all anything for Mike to worry about (I don't even use the four letter b word!). Should I mail it to @PBModerator ?
Surely no one seriously listens to that old climate change denier?!
Yes - it's pretty desperate stuff when the attempts to create Tory splits are reliant on this kind of thing. Watching the PM's statement earlier the great frontbench/backbench dissonance was all on the other side.
Surely the views of the Chancellor who held office for most of Thatcher's premiership cannot be so easily dismissed?
Being important a long time ago doesn't mean someone is now. I don't discount it, particularly with the Tories, but it's not automatically big news either.
Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.
On current polling May does at least as well as any other Tory contender against Corbyn, no poll gives Labour a big enough lead for a clear working majority and several named alternatives would get a lower Tory voteshare than she has. Having scrapped the hated dementia tax plan and agreed FTA talks with the EU and now with key ally Green staying in post she ends the year in a stronger position than she was in in June
Surely no one seriously listens to that old climate change denier?!
Yes - it's pretty desperate stuff when the attempts to create Tory splits are reliant on this kind of thing. Watching the PM's statement earlier the great frontbench/backbench dissonance was all on the other side.
Surely the views of the Chancellor who held office for most of Thatcher's premiership cannot be so easily dismissed?
They are not even worthy of the consideration required to dismiss them
Amazingly, the way things are going, the only person who can prevent Theresa May from leading the Tories into the next GE is... Theresa May. And she's no quitter.
On current polling May does at least as well as any other Tory contender against Corbyn, no poll gives Labour a big enough lead for a clear working majority and several named alternatives would get a lower Tory voteshare than she has. Having scrapped the hated dementia tax plan and agreed FTA talks with the EU and now with key ally Green staying in post she ends the year in a stronger position than she was in in June
So we have a 'know-all' saying that Green is safe.
Who was the 'know-all' saying that Green was finished yesterday ?
It was at least a different 'know-all' (Nick Robinson IIRC). But it does show that these political journalists don't always have their finger on the right pulse.
If it took a few days, that's a few more days that a lot would have thought it would taken, which means it cannot be as bad as all that.
I'm curious as to when Lawson had his great change on the EU.
When he was Chancellor he was all for sterling shadowing the DM and was a supporter of sterling joining the ERM. The combined effect being allowing inflation to get out of control followed by a recession.
On topic, if Pesto has indeed been told two days before Green himself, that's a terrible indictment of the disregard for confidentiality and common decency at Westminster!
Surely no one seriously listens to that old climate change denier?!
Yes - it's pretty desperate stuff when the attempts to create Tory splits are reliant on this kind of thing. Watching the PM's statement earlier the great frontbench/backbench dissonance was all on the other side.
Surely the views of the Chancellor who held office for most of Thatcher's premiership cannot be so easily dismissed?
Law enforcement officials don't believe the passageway was the intended target since the 'low-tech' bomb - attached to Ullah with Velcro and zip ties - did not explode fully.
The crude device was made from a pipe, a 9-volt battery, matches and Christmass tree lights, senior law enforcement officials told NBC News. The chemical explosive appears to have ignited but the pipe itself did not burst. Screws were found at the scene, indicating that they may have filled the pipe and were intended to be used as shrapnel.
So we have a 'know-all' saying that Green is safe.
Who was the 'know-all' saying that Green was finished yesterday ?
It was at least a different 'know-all' (Nick Robinson IIRC). But it does show that these political journalists don't always have their finger on the right pulse.
I suspect there's a lot of trying to create a story one way of another - twatter really is a 'make work' tool for these people.
If it took a few days, that's a few more days that a lot would have thought it would taken, which means it cannot be as bad as all that.
I'm curious as to when Lawson had his great change on the EU.
When he was Chancellor he was all for sterling shadowing the DM and was a supporter of sterling joining the ERM. The combined effect being allowing inflation to get out of control followed by a recession.
I would have guessed it was Black Wednesday followed by Maastricht. This maiden speech in the Lords suggests a growing Euroscepticism:
If it took a few days, that's a few more days that a lot would have thought it would taken, which means it cannot be as bad as all that.
I'm curious as to when Lawson had his great change on the EU.
When he was Chancellor he was all for sterling shadowing the DM and was a supporter of sterling joining the ERM. The combined effect being allowing inflation to get out of control followed by a recession.
I would have guessed it was Black Wednesday followed by Maastricht. This maiden speech in the Lords suggests a growing Euroscepticism:
I was just thinking how the PB archive has turned into a massive and detailed chronicle of 21st century history woven into a balanced representation of political opinions in the UK.
It's a credit to its creator and its prolific posters. I'm grateful for both the news service here, and, on the whole, the most civilised, balanced and thorough political discussion on the internet.
I'm a little concerned that I have to use waybackmachine (I think..) to find old comments. I love to look back and see how we all reacted to events, and get a pretty full range of opinion on pretty much everything that's happened since PB.
Do you have copies of all the old comments? If not, can you get them back?
@bbclaurak: Whitehall source says they don’t recognise reports that Damien Green will be cleared on Wednesday and suggestions that a final decision has been made are inaccurate
@bbclaurak: Whitehall source says they don’t recognise reports that Damien Green will be cleared on Wednesday and suggestions that a final decision has been made are inaccurate
@bbclaurak: Whitehall source says they don’t recognise reports that Damien Green will be cleared on Wednesday and suggestions that a final decision has been made are inaccurate
Aren't the sources that said he was toast, and ones that said he was cleared, also Whitehall sources? Seriously, unless journalists are just making things up, there cannot be that many people in on the fine details of this, so why so many different accounts being leaked?
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Times/ YouGov Poll Voting intention has the Tories back ahead for the first time since the June election CON 42%(+2), LAB 41%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc) Changes on last week. Poll taken Sun/Mon
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Times/ YouGov Poll Voting intention has the Tories back ahead for the first time since the June election CON 42%(+2), LAB 41%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc) Changes on last week. Poll taken Sun/Mon
Never trust polls anymore. But still, if you must have them, better to be ahead than not, if only to calm party nerves.
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Times/ YouGov Poll Voting intention has the Tories back ahead for the first time since the June election CON 42%(+2), LAB 41%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc) Changes on last week. Poll taken Sun/Mon
@bbclaurak: Whitehall source says they don’t recognise reports that Damien Green will be cleared on Wednesday and suggestions that a final decision has been made are inaccurate
Aren't the sources that said he was toast, and ones that said he was cleared, also Whitehall sources? Seriously, unless journalists are just making things up, there cannot be that many people in on the fine details of this, so why so many different accounts being leaked?
It seems to be the equivalent of this bloke down the pub, knows somebody who knows somebody who is distantly related to green said that.....
New Yougov would give Tories 312 Labour 268, so Tories may still have enough seats to govern with DUP if SF don't take their seats and LDs abstain on a confidence vote
Why would that be? They were happy to disbelieve polls that looked before pre-election (and in fairness proven mostly correct, even if the Tories still came out on top), and happy to believe polls that indicated they would come out ahead post-election, now they just switch back to disbelief. Not even restricted to Corbynistas, that.
Haven't made it past the first season yet, so very dull.
On that score, watched most of The Handmaid's Tale on the plane back from China - good lord, I know the subject matter is meant to be bleak, but its so lacking in atmosphere and full of the same stupidly long silences and staring as with Mad Men (or at least the first season, which is all I saw) that it really takes away from how compelling it is supposed to be.
Why would that be? They were happy to disbelieve polls that looked before pre-election (and in fairness proven mostly correct, even if the Tories still came out on top), and happy to believe polls that indicated they would come out ahead post-election, now they just switch back to disbelief. Not even restricted to Corbynistas, that.
They disbelieved polls because they didn’t like them. Survation was believed among them a few weeks ago when it showed an eight point lead for example.
Given how wrong YouGov VI polls were at the general election, calm down.
Yougov had the Tories ahead, they ended up ahead and it was yougov who first identified the falling Tory lead post dementia tax, they are now the first to identify a small Tory lead post EU agreement
Why would that be? They were happy to disbelieve polls that looked before pre-election (and in fairness proven mostly correct, even if the Tories still came out on top), and happy to believe polls that indicated they would come out ahead post-election, now they just switch back to disbelief. Not even restricted to Corbynistas, that.
They disbelieved polls because they didn’t like them. Survation was believed among them a few weeks ago when it showed an eight point lead for example.
That was my point - they won't be any less happy at this one, as they'll simply disbelieve it in favour of the ones which look better.
Well at least I'm finally clear on Labour's policy on that score.
It would be entertaining to watch Corbyn justify voting for Remain on a second referendum.....
I suspect he would not be delighted to be faced with that all over again. So let’s just not go there, eh?
There will be no second referendum on an in/out basis, simple reason when you think about it, if Westminster allowed one, the SNP could legitimately demand a re-run and nobody wants that, except of course the SNP. Any new referendum would be on to accept the details of the divorce or not, and that could open a bigger can of worms and is extremely unlikely.....
Given how wrong YouGov VI polls were at the general election, calm down.
Yougov had the Tories ahead, they ended up ahead and it was yougov who first identified the falling Tory lead post dementia tax, they are now the first to identify a small Tory lead post EU agreement
You overlook the fact that Yougov had the Tories 7% ahead in their final poll, whereas they only won by 2.5%.
The most popular view is that the government continues on its current negotiating terms, a move backed by 43 per cent. Pollsters also asked whether there should be a second referendum, and 33 per cent said “yes”, 42 per cent said “no” and the rest did not know.
New Yougov would give Tories 312 Labour 268, so Tories may still have enough seats to govern with DUP if SF don't take their seats and LDs abstain on a confidence vote
Not quite. The Tory lead in June was 2.4% so this poll is still a swing of 0.7% in Labour's favour and would give 8 Labour gains at Tory expense - reducing the Tories to 310. Labour would also gain from the SNP.
On topic, if Pesto has indeed been told two days before Green himself, that's a terrible indictment of the disregard for confidentiality and common decency at Westminster!
New Yougov would give Tories 312 Labour 268, so Tories may still have enough seats to govern with DUP if SF don't take their seats and LDs abstain on a confidence vote
Not quite. The Tory lead in June was 2.4% so this poll is still a swing of 0.7% in Labour's favour and would give 8 Labour gains at Tory expense - reducing the Tories to 310. Labour would also gain from the SNP.
So still Tories comfortably largest party even if you add on 7 Labour gains from the SNP
Theoretically possible, yes. If she can manage it, it will be one hell of a recovery (or one hell of an indictment of her colleagues, depending on how leading them to the next GE turns out).
On a serious point, it shows that the Conservative Party (and possibly even Theresa May!) is not irretrievably lost. As negotiations resume, but without the feverishly negative coverage of recent weeks, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 'handling Brexit well' figure tick up.
Comments
Let's see, something on the royals, united ireland, right/wrong to Brexit, etc etc
I was even positive on Mrs May.
If it is good enough for Ken Clarke, then it's good enough for me.
Seriously, is that all you've got?
What does he mean? Repainted as in 'reiterated' or repainted as in 'a different place'?
But there is still time.
But I'll share my email if I'm allowed to; it's brief and I'm sure not at all anything for Mike to worry about (I don't even use the four letter b word!). Should I mail it to @PBModerator ?
They are not even worthy of the consideration required to dismiss them
Who was the 'know-all' saying that Green was finished yesterday ?
When he was Chancellor he was all for sterling shadowing the DM and was a supporter of sterling joining the ERM. The combined effect being allowing inflation to get out of control followed by a recession.
The crude device was made from a pipe, a 9-volt battery, matches and Christmass tree lights, senior law enforcement officials told NBC News. The chemical explosive appears to have ignited but the pipe itself did not burst. Screws were found at the scene, indicating that they may have filled the pipe and were intended to be used as shrapnel.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5167317/Explosion-reported-NYC-Port-Authority-bus-terminal.html
Lucky escape.....
http://www.ukpol.co.uk/nigel-lawson-1993-maiden-speech-in-the-house-of-lords/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42308552
Well at least I'm finally clear on Labour's policy on that score.
A similar petition last year attracted 4.1 million signatures. '
It's a credit to its creator and its prolific posters. I'm grateful for both the news service here, and, on the whole, the most civilised, balanced and thorough political discussion on the internet.
I'm a little concerned that I have to use waybackmachine (I think..) to find old comments. I love to look back and see how we all reacted to events, and get a pretty full range of opinion on pretty much everything that's happened since PB.
Do you have copies of all the old comments? If not, can you get them back?
I suspect he would not be delighted to be faced with that all over again. So let’s just not go there, eh?
Voting intention has the Tories back ahead for the first time since the June election
CON 42%(+2),
LAB 41%(nc),
LDEM 7%(nc)
Changes on last week. Poll taken Sun/Mon
37% now think she’d be the best PM (up 3), ahead of Corbyn on 28%(down 2) and don’t know 35%(-1).
That’s a 9 pt lead, and it was a 4pt lead last week
After watching an episode of the Crown, this poll is the icing on the cake. Floreat Britannia!
Who voters would most trust to negotiate Brexit, 32 per cent said Mrs May, 16 per cent said Mr Corbyn and 33 per cent said neither.
May must stay!
Jezza must go!
Cable must make people remember that he's there.
Well: 26% (+5)
Badly: 57% (-7)
via @YouGov, 10 - 11 Dec
On that score, watched most of The Handmaid's Tale on the plane back from China - good lord, I know the subject matter is meant to be bleak, but its so lacking in atmosphere and full of the same stupidly long silences and staring as with Mad Men (or at least the first season, which is all I saw) that it really takes away from how compelling it is supposed to be.
26% thought the government was doing well (+5%) and 57% (-7%) thought they were doing badly
Changes since last week
With any luck it will make the Brexit head-bangers realise how politically damaging their pursuit of hard Brexit was.
Expect it to go down as everyone starts undermining it again, on both sides, until the next phase.
EU - 50%
Give and take - 26%
UK - 4%
March 2019 - 1/3 of voters
2020 - 14%
After 2020 - 17%
Never 10%
On a lighter note, this does show an interesting lack of insight:
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/940342978035507201
Should there be a second referendum
Yes - 33%
No - 42%
DK - 25%
Where have all the 'they need us more than we need them' Leavers gone?
On a serious point, it shows that the Conservative Party (and possibly even Theresa May!) is not irretrievably lost. As negotiations resume, but without the feverishly negative coverage of recent weeks, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 'handling Brexit well' figure tick up.