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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay has probably ensured that she’ll remain as PM until Brexi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay has probably ensured that she’ll remain as PM until Brexit
Like all negotiations this one went right to the edge. Something had to be agreed by this weekend to ensure that things moved to the next stage, but both the EU and the UK have been flexible and Mrs. May can take some credit.
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(a. A leadership election during Brexit negotiations would be difficult
(b. There's no one better to replace her.
I've moved back and forth on this issue though, but then again I'm not apart of the pundit class....
I thought they were red lines for you?
It might be Labour.
Right now the high polling for both parties is motivated by blues worried about the friend of Hamas, and reds worried about the baby-eating Tories. If that's accurate, I'd suggest reds might be likelier to shift than blues. Could be wrong, of course, but worth considering.
Will the Lib Dems advocate rejoining?
This could be a gap worth exploiting in the Christmas gift market. I'd have bought some for Mr Meeks if there were any for sale.
https://vimeo.com/107213875
Read and weep...or chortle.....
Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.
A Brexit that pleases nobody became a bit more likely today, but only a bit.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/12/theresa-may-must-now-decide-between-the-two-factions-in-her-brexit-cabinet/
Given our absolute capitulation on pretty much everything I can see a quick revival of UKIP. And remember that they were neck and next with the Tories not that long ago...
Or do you deny the odds of a 2018 election increased on Monday ?
As I said yesterday it seems to me that there is a growing, albeit extremely reluctant, acknowledgement on the part of the EU that we really mean to leave and that making it difficult is not going to stop us. Once they reconcile themselves to that idea the impetus towards reaching a deal that is as favourable to them in trade terms as the current arrangements in the Single Market will become irresistible. That doesn't mean that there won't be rows of course but £6bn of goods a week is a very serious amount of jobs to have on the line.
There will be some that think that a more organised, competent, focussed government might have brought that reality home to the EU a little earlier and that it is the weakness of the current administration and possible collapse of the May government that gave the EU false hope. I think it is fair to say we have probably ended up paying more than we would have done in that alternate scenario but these are short term issues. The important thing is that we are leaving and they are free to carry on building the super state so many remainers still refuse to see. Good luck to them if that is what they want.
There have been comments about needing to meet the needs of the middle 80% and facing down the 10% on either extreme. Sounds like this deal begins to do that, unlike most of the rhetoric.
The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK and so we move to Phase Two. That's all this current round of negotiations was ever about.
https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/939037810236858368
I think it's a considerably too early to say that May will see Britain through as PM. She could easily get the deal through the Commons - Labour will probably back it - but if there's a significant rebellion and May goes over their heads with Labour votes, that could easily trigger a leadership challenge.
I think it's highly likely we'll see further political violence, sadly.
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/939079419234279424
Brexit 2 - this time we put the nation through another bruising interlude to, er, get a bit more money back? Or what, Mr. Farage? The UK is now independent. Job done. He would have more success selling the voters on the benefits of Betamax 2 than Brexit 2.....
So far several (Rentoul, Forsyth, Telegraph) have said 'UK got more or less what it wanted'.......
Compared to staying in that is clearly a much better solution.
You are an Emperor's New Clothes person. You can insist we are ending FoM all you like. But as we "leave" and FoM continues as part of our being fully aligned, it won't take long for someone to say "but I can see your cock Mr Davis". And already on the Daily Blackshirt they can see straight through it - May sold out.
This is an awkward one for the UK, because during any transition period we'll be paying the full whack (reasonably enough, it has to be accepted). Therefore it is in the interests of the EU to make all sorts of difficulties about the start date of the trade agreement which will follow and replace the transitional arrangement, and offer to extend the transition to avoid another cliff-edge. Some of those difficulties might even be genuine. It will be very hard for the UK to keep the timing on track.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42277040
Hard Brexiteers are furious of course, Aaron Banks has called the deal 'a betrayal of 17.5 million Leave voters' but May was always going to have to break with them eventually to make progress with the EU
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.130939030
I think it's always been very clear that many of those who voted Labour did not do so because they were massive Socialists. As Stephen Bush has noted:
What there is considerable evidence of is that the average under-40 is actually less sympathetic towards nationalisation, redistribution or left-wing policies in general than the old. What separates them from the Conservative-voting over-55s is that they are a) more socially liberal than older voters, b) they dislike Brexit both as an assault on their cultural values and because they fear it will make them poorer, and c) they can’t get on the housing ladder.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/11/no-really-young-people-don-t-vote-labour-because-they-re-communist
So I don't think we need to 'find' that out: we in fact already know it. For that matter, I think Corbyn and McDonnell both know this - it's the Owen Jones' of the world that don't.
But going back to my first point, this is why I'm bemused by the conclusion one PBer made that Labour won't want the focus to go back to domestic issues. Er, they will. As noted before by (ironically Tory PBers) Brexit is not the greatest issue for Corbyn, shall we say. His position lacks clarity and during PMQs this week he didn't really land a blow on TMay in what was a Brexit themed PMQs. It is not an issue where he can speak with the greatest confidence because Labour is attempting to do a dance where they keep both Labour Leavers happy, and their Remainer voters happy as well.
Where Corbyn actually does well is on domestic issues. He has made his hay on issues concerning inter-generational unfairness - tuition fees, housing, social mobility, the costs of living - as well as on issues such as the universal credit. The aspect of Brexit which Corbyn capitalised on was the values gap that Brexit revealed - the more socially liberal Remainers versus the more socially conservative Leavers (obviously, there are exceptions).
I think that the next GE will end in a hung parliament if I had to make a prediction. As I don't think that any economic disaster will happy after today's events, Corbyn cannot rely on that to lead him to a majority. But the issues that Bush outlined as to why many young voters - Corbynista or Conservative Remainer - voted for Labour are not really changed by today's events, which is why Corbyn is likely to keep his coalition of voters. What he could struggle with, is expanding that coalition of voters, I think.
On citizens' rights, the final agreement is closer to the original British proposal than the EU27's, though the terms of family reunion are more compassionate than those the British government wanted: there will be no earnings threshold (or other bureaucratic hurdles faced by people from outside the EU) fo relatives living in the UK on or before the date of withdrawal. However, the path has been cleared for a more draconian approach in future.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/12/key-points-brexit-deal-and-what-it-means-theresa-may
As a third country, there is no way the EU can insist on freedom of movement.
May has a better hand than many give her credit for. I suggest most of the punditocracy shouldn't play poker against her. She's learnt from her dreadful flop this summer....
I think we will now move into a two-year "no change" transition in which the UK will remain in all the EU economic structure whilst the Tories try to decide what end state they are trying to get to. It's unlikely they will be able to resolve this, and the EU will have no incentive to move quickly on the trade talks, and so when the transition ends - only a year before the next general election is due - it is likely to be extended. So the UK will effectively move into an EEA position, which is practice is likely to become permanent. The only thing that could stop this happening is a revolt by Tory ultras, but it is not clear they have the numbers to make this happen.
That is not the same for the rest of the EU whatever Brexiteers may think. As a proportion of their GDP, the EU trades far less that the UK does with them. In fact, the UK's exports are also inflated with gold sales which are basically trans-shipment of sales from the USA to the EU.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/939082596390264832
A crude approximation of my previously expressed views: 'Common Market Good, Political Union Bad'.
It's a shame that we're leaving the Single Market. However, while mass immigration doesn't really affect me, it's clear that ending FoM as currently constituted was important to many voters.
Simply going off the reactions here and in the broader media, I'd say PM May has had a good day, and by God, she needed one.
May's deal has guaranteed that neither Remainers or Leavers will get anything they want. RP is correct in one aspect - you cannot be in the SM/CU without FOM. But FOM is not going to be conceded as it would invalidate the referendum result. Even the pathetic Tories are not going to be able to survive that.
So RP is wrong about the outcome. We will end up accepting EU regulations WITHOUT getting the benefits of SM/CU membership.
So the Remainers get nothing they want- we are not going to be in the SM or CU, not even 'under a new name.'
Leavers will also get nothing they want - we will get a CETA FTA with no services but under SM/CU regulations which will make it impossible to do trade deals with other countries and impossible to control our own laws.
So this great 'compromise' will lead to everyone losing, except the EU of course, who have outmanoeuvred May.
The EU have always made it clear that there is no cherry picking of the SM rules. We've committed to full alignment on those rules. Someone will have to blink, and the EU have repeatedly demonstrated that they will maintain the integrity of the rules. We either obey or there is no deal. And if there is no deal then there is no agreement on the Irish issue. And the whole thing falls apart again with regards to phase 2 of the talks.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/05/uk-ready-pay-40bn-brexit-bill-eu-talks-trade/ - headline figure: £36billion.
https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-divorce-bill/ - UK government set to offer £18billion.
Even the £100billion estimate had conditions:
'Alex Barker and George Parker of the Financial Times says of the same negotiations that the UK will assume liabilities “worth up to €100bn” (£88bn). However, he says that the net figure (after deductions for payments made to the UK) could fall to less than half of that – “with the UK side pressing for an implied figure of €40-45bn” (£35-£40bn).'
It's amazing how one day of things going *as expected* is now a stunning victory, just days after a multifaceted debacle that, in one of its aspects, has been kicked down the line rather than resolved. That's enough for it to be May's Stalingrad apparently.
When we look back in history Blair / Brown will be regarded as the worst Prime Ministers of all time..
Which as you say means no trade deals elsewhere. We cannot do anything which makes us non-compliant with SM rules or the agreement falls apart.
And I keep banging on about FoM because this is the bit that I keep being told so important to so many bigots and racists. They want an end to "foreigners". And yes, we will end FoM. And replace it with "FoM" because we have to be fully aligned to all 4 pillars if we want a deal on services (which we have to have). So we will have formally stopped Freedom of Movement. And replaced it with no restrictions on EU nationals coming to work here.
Anyone happy...?