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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay has probably ensured that she’ll remain as PM until Brexi

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  • I hope most people on here are significantly more informed at betting than they are about negotiating strategies! There hasn't half been some twaddle spouted....
    Most of what is posted on here is absolute b*llshit.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    Only if that regulation refers to something we trade in with Ireland and even then only if we cannot agree on an equivalence.

    And if Ireland start to make too many of these demands they might quickly find we are looking at other sources for the goods we trade with them.
    Hmm not entirely sure that is the case (of course none of us are). 49 relates to North-South relations not ROI-UK relations. So if something is transacted between ROI and NI then the ROI dictates the terms of the regulations and NI and hence the UK will follow.

    Now of course in practice, there will be few categories that that refers to (does a Dublin-based fund manager sell to someone in Clogher? Probably) but what it does cover is a backdoor to EU regulation for the UK in its entirety. It seems to me.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited December 2017
    Kind of genius strategery by the Prime Minister here. If she'd admitted to being in favour of soft Brexit she'd have been lynched by her backbenchers. But if she does hard Brexit the economy goes to hell.

    She's squared the circle by acting like she's in favour of hard Brexit, but unbelievably shit at negotiating it.
  • A deal has been done but it hasn't been agreed. I'm surprised at the amount of credit publicly being given to May - I'm guessing the whips have been active. However, there's a lot of detail that a lot of Eurosceptic MPs are not going to like.

    I think it's a considerably too early to say that May will see Britain through as PM. She could easily get the deal through the Commons - Labour will probably back it - but if there's a significant rebellion and May goes over their heads with Labour votes, that could easily trigger a leadership challenge.

    I'm surprised at your attitude today.

    You are a sensible intelligent chap.

    May is doing fine, and there's still a chance of getting through this in one piece and defeating Corbyn in 4.5 years.

    Chin up!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    Elliot said:

    Alignment isn't harmonisation. It can mean anything between harmonisation through equivalence to both sides not making a fuss over sufficiently similar laws. And the UK has responsibility for ensuring it, with no apparent EU oversight other than threatening to blow up the whole agreement. That is a long way off single market rule.
    It's actually the same as what Switzerland has, alignment with single market rules without any EU oversight.
  • New Statesman take:

    On citizens' rights, the final agreement is closer to the original British proposal than the EU27's, though the terms of family reunion are more compassionate than those the British government wanted: there will be no earnings threshold (or other bureaucratic hurdles faced by people from outside the EU) fo relatives living in the UK on or before the date of withdrawal. However, the path has been cleared for a more draconian approach in future.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/12/key-points-brexit-deal-and-what-it-means-theresa-may

    That's the risky bit for getting European Parliament consent.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    If you actually look at the GFA itself, you'll find this:

    ANNEX
    Areas for North-South co-operation and implementation may include the
    following:
    1. Agriculture - animal and plant health.
    2. Education - teacher qualifications and exchanges.
    3. Transport - strategic transport planning.
    waste management.
    5. Waterways - inland waterways.
    6. Social Security/Social Welfare - entitlements of cross-border workers
    and fraud control.
    7. Tourism - promotion, marketing, research, and product development.
    8. Relevant EU Programmes such as SPPR, INTERREG, Leader II and
    their successors.
    9. Inland Fisheries.
    10. Aquaculture and marine matters
    11. Health: accident and emergency services and other related crossborder
    issues.
    12. Urban and rural development.
    Others to be considered by the shadow North/ South Council.

    I'd argue chlorinated chicken is covered by point 1!

    Of course, that is the 1998 text - and a lot has been done under the provisions of the GFA since then.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agreement.pdf

    Is the key word not "may"? From a quick skim I don't see anything other than constitutional matters in your link and the EU agreement specifically refers to the 1998 agreement in any event.

    I would be surprised if we have agreements in most of these areas for the simple reason that there would be little point whilst we were both members of the EU and operating off the same legislative format.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,611
    Pulpstar said:

    Half serious question:

    What happens if a baby is born on a ferry crossing from Liverpool to Belfast ?

    Does it get EU rights :) ?

    That reminds me of this classic:

    An Irish registered plane, flying for a German airline, with a Dutch crew, transporting British passengers between Portugal and Italy crashes on the border between Spain and France. Where do they bury the survivors?
  • If you actually look at the GFA itself, you'll find this:

    ANNEX
    Areas for North-South co-operation and implementation may include the
    following:
    1. Agriculture - animal and plant health.
    2. Education - teacher qualifications and exchanges.
    3. Transport - strategic transport planning.
    waste management.
    5. Waterways - inland waterways.
    6. Social Security/Social Welfare - entitlements of cross-border workers
    and fraud control.
    7. Tourism - promotion, marketing, research, and product development.
    8. Relevant EU Programmes such as SPPR, INTERREG, Leader II and
    their successors.
    9. Inland Fisheries.
    10. Aquaculture and marine matters
    11. Health: accident and emergency services and other related crossborder
    issues.
    12. Urban and rural development.
    Others to be considered by the shadow North/ South Council.

    I'd argue chlorinated chicken is covered by point 1!

    Of course, that is the 1998 text - and a lot has been done under the provisions of the GFA since then.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agreement.pdf

    Chickens are not chlorinated when they are still alive so its not an issue of animal health.

    More to do with human health.
  • rkrkrk said:

    I think this is one of those occasions where it's best to pass comment a bit later once the dust has settled.

    I remember that time in December 2010 with Cameron and EU and the reactions back then versus the reactions in January 2011. It gave him a short-term poll bounce as well....
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,014

    Kind of genius strategery by the Prime Minister here. If she'd admitted to being in favour of soft Brexit she'd have been lynched by her backbenchers. But if she does hard Brexit the economy goes to hell.

    She's squared the circle by acting like she's in favour of hard Brexit, but unbelievably shit at negotiating it.

    Maybe she's getting some tips from Trump?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    RoyalBlue said:

    I think you're the one showing a lack of understanding.

    We've not committed to no border; we've committed to no hard border. They are not the same thing, at all.

    So what are "soft border", "hard border", and "no border"? Genuine question.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sky news says UK exit bill agreed at £35 to £39 billion, lower than some forecasts

    Ahem. I said £38-£39bn over a month ago.
  • Here's what will happen - cabinet alignment upon:

    (1) existing single market rules that make *mutual sense* for both the UK and EU (e.g. agriculture, energy) will be aligned. Same friendly service but with a Union Jack.

    (2) existing single market rules that we believe should be *interpreted* differently (but with same objective) will have equivalence. Some product and goods standards

    (3) new regulatory rules for new technology, services and systems will have an exclusive UK angle, and be allowed to diverge.

    In NI, the assembly and exec will review and decide to maintain alignment with Eire, as required.

    Free visas for the under 30s in Europe for 2 years. Freeish movement for high skilled workers.

    Brexit is a process. Something for everyone.

    Federal Europe can do one.

    Is free visas in Europe for us supposed to make us vote Tory? This reminds me of the railcard policy which literally no one cared about. The issue with the Tories for younger voters is cultural values + intergenerational unfairness for younger voters.
  • LOL, I hope those Republicans who wrap themselves in the flag and talk about how much they love the vets aren't supporting Roy Moore.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    Is free visas in Europe for us supposed to make us vote Tory? This reminds me of the railcard policy which literally no one cared about. The issue with the Tories for younger voters is cultural values + intergenerational unfairness for younger voters.
    No, it just means the UK will be able to get seasonal workers but it will be dressed up as a perk for middle class young people who want the option of working in Europe for a year or two.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Oh, and Remainers will continue to try and troll Leavers by saying we've surrendered to Brussels and the EU will have the whip-hand forever, because they're absolute sad-sacks who've been left with nowhere else to go.

    This is a silly line for Conservative Brexiteers to push. If you want the country to come to peace with Brexit and the conservatives, you should be happy to act like they have won. You have got what you are wanted, so let it be framed as "soft Brexit" or "sensible Brexit" that defeated the far right bogeymen wanting to walk away. It will help you win a majority.
  • MaxPB said:

    No, it just means the UK will be able to get seasonal workers but it will be dressed up as a perk for middle class young people who want the option of working in Europe for a year or two.
    And why would the Tories dress it up as a 'perk' for middle-class young people? For no reason? Back to my point....
  • Is free visas in Europe for us supposed to make us vote Tory? This reminds me of the railcard policy which literally no one cared about. The issue with the Tories for younger voters is cultural values + intergenerational unfairness for younger voters.
    Nope. But I think it'll happen all the same.
  • Is free visas in Europe for us supposed to make us vote Tory? This reminds me of the railcard policy which literally no one cared about. The issue with the Tories for younger voters is cultural values + intergenerational unfairness for younger voters.
    I spent part of yesterday suggesting to the Leavers that they have done sweet FA to persuade Remain voters that they are anything other than malign clowns. Unfortunately, they seem to feel the need for a safe space to protect them against such unkind suggestions rather than find a way to address them.
  • That reminds me of this classic:

    An Irish registered plane, flying for a German airline, with a Dutch crew, transporting British passengers between Portugal and Italy crashes on the border between Spain and France. Where do they bury the survivors?
    I know this one, the Spanish and French radar data was faked, the survivors were buried alive in a mass burial site near a hangar in Kazakhstan, as prophesized by Pitbull and Shakira.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,611
    So under this deal will British retirees still be able to move to the Costas and Algarve, or will Jasmine Harman be out of a job?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    Most of what is posted on here is absolute b*llshit.
    Very true and yet we keep at it, don't we.
  • Elliot said:

    This is a silly line for Conservative Brexiteers to push. If you want the country to come to peace with Brexit and the conservatives, you should be happy to act like they have won. You have got what you are wanted, so let it be framed as "soft Brexit" or "sensible Brexit" that defeated the far right bogeymen wanting to walk away. It will help you win a majority.
    The tension is likely to not go away for a while, because many Remainers and Leavers have different cultural values.
  • What this deal also tells us is that the frequent tweets from "Remain" commentators - most of which are tediously copied and pasted onto this forum, by a number of our regular contributors - mean very little, other than to deliver a little bit of psyops and morale shooting to the forum's Leavers.

    Nice try.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    And why would the Tories dress it up as a 'perk' for middle-class young people? For no reason? Back to my point....
    To get popular support for it. I don't think any free movement visa would get popular support if it was advertised as intended (for the UK to get seasonal labour). Plus, it does have the added bonus of giving young people in the UK options, it's just not the main aim of any such policy, even though it might be presented that way.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    That reminds me of this classic:

    An Irish registered plane, flying for a German airline, with a Dutch crew, transporting British passengers between Portugal and Italy crashes on the border between Spain and France. Where do they bury the survivors?
    har har..survivors don't need no burying now, do they?

    Signed TOPPING Form 5B
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    So under this deal will British retirees still be able to move to the Costas and Algarve, or will Jasmine Harman be out of a job?

    Nothing in this deal makes any real difference, as the retirees have almost no rights in Spain to anything they don't pay for. The right of residence is the only potential issue I suppose, but most nations grant that on the basis of someone not to be an economic drain - and that's pretty much how Spain behaves now as it really doesn't provide anything like the level of social services to emigrant retirees that we have in the UK.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Kind of genius strategery by the Prime Minister here. If she'd admitted to being in favour of soft Brexit she'd have been lynched by her backbenchers. But if she does hard Brexit the economy goes to hell.

    She's squared the circle by acting like she's in favour of hard Brexit, but unbelievably shit at negotiating it.

    I think you have to give May credit for this one. Not telling the DUP was probably a masterstroke, not a mistake. She was very close to a deal. The "regulatory alignment" was only for Northern Ireland.

    She correctly foresaw DUP's reaction to it. Now the "regulatory alignment" applies to the whole of the UK. Effectively, a very soft Brexit!
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    It's any case initiated within eight years, isn't it? In practice, the ECJ could still be involved into the 2030s.

    No doubt Remainer lawyers will be encouraging as many EU citizens as possible to do just that in the final months, so they can crow about us being under ECJ jurisdiction for decades to come.

    How many extra cases do you think they'll be able to drum up on top of the usual two per year?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    The more I read of the agreement, the more I'm on board with it. A sunset clause for the ECJ, self policing on regulatory alignment, no EU mechanism to force us to align as they want us to. The government may have snatched victory from the jaws of defeat here, thanks to the DUP. We should have sent them in from the beginning.
  • I spent part of yesterday suggesting to the Leavers that they have done sweet FA to persuade Remain voters that they are anything other than malign clowns. Unfortunately, they seem to feel the need for a safe space to protect them against such unkind suggestions rather than find a way to address them.
    LOL. The world has turned and you are being left behind Mr Meeks. In the light of the overnight news your comments are even more sad and out of touch than ever before.
  • Elliot said:

    This is a silly line for Conservative Brexiteers to push. If you want the country to come to peace with Brexit and the conservatives, you should be happy to act like they have won. You have got what you are wanted, so let it be framed as "soft Brexit" or "sensible Brexit" that defeated the far right bogeymen wanting to walk away. It will help you win a majority.

    It is a silly line. I am not sure why we have to see this in terms of the UK winning or losing the negotiation with the EU. It seems to me that the big losers are the zealots on both sides. What we have now is a path to Phase Two. So what if we gave more than we got? The important thing is we have made progress and have almost certainly avoided the cliff edge.

  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    I spent part of yesterday suggesting to the Leavers that they have done sweet FA to persuade Remain voters that they are anything other than malign clowns. Unfortunately, they seem to feel the need for a safe space to protect them against such unkind suggestions rather than find a way to address them.
    There's no point addressing them if the people who make such assertions are not open to reason. The outcome will be the outcome - whether its good or bad.

    What we won't be, is part of the increasingly integrated EU federal project. The more they integrate, the more the difference will make itself clear.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,376
    I see the more fanatical Remainers aren't happy. May must have done something right for a change.
  • No doubt Remainer lawyers will be encouraging as many EU citizens as possible to do just that in the final months, so they can crow about us being under ECJ jurisdiction for decades to come.

    How many extra cases do you think they'll be able to drum up on top of the usual two per year?

    It's not up to the lawyers what gets in front of the ECJ, it's up to the judges - the enemies of the people!

  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_P said:
    You can smell the anger wafting off the page. The fact that some remain voters are still poo-pooing Mrs May after the deal is they'd rather watch the UK burn so they can be right than ever depart the EU in an orderly fashion. Today is clearly a pretty decent day for the country no matter if leave or remain as it both respects the democratic vote but also throws some bones to remainers who wished for a soft Brexit and were keen to engage in the process rather than snipe and obstruct.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    It is a silly line. I am not sure why we have to see this in terms of the UK winning or losing the negotiation with the EU. It seems to me that the big losers are the zealots on both sides. What we have now is a path to Phase Two. So what if we gave more than we got? The important thing is we have made progress and have almost certainly avoided the cliff edge.

    Yes, this is exactly the mindset I assumed/hoped we would get earlier but I am delighted if we get there now. If most Remainers and most Leavers can accept this solution then that is a win for everyone. We don't have to live in a Trumpian zero sum world.
  • CD13 said:

    I see the more fanatical Remainers aren't happy. May must have done something right for a change.

    Along with Farage & Leave.EU......

    Not a bad indicator that its about right......
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    It is a silly line. I am not sure why we have to see this in terms of the UK winning or losing the negotiation with the EU. It seems to me that the big losers are the zealots on both sides. What we have now is a path to Phase Two. So what if we gave more than we got? The important thing is we have made progress and have almost certainly avoided the cliff edge.

    If it makes Nigel Farage unhappy, it can't be all bad. I have no idea whether it's a good deal or not - it's too early to say, and the real work has yet to begin. However, the markets will like it, and the mere fact of an agreement will help reassure businesses.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,597
    Given her age and health and the strains she has been under, I do admire Mrs May’s physical and mental tenacity.

    Also, to Big G I just wanted to say that glad to hear you are on the mend and hope you have a restful time this Xmas.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    I spent part of yesterday suggesting to the Leavers that they have done sweet FA to persuade Remain voters that they are anything other than malign clowns. Unfortunately, they seem to feel the need for a safe space to protect them against such unkind suggestions rather than find a way to address them.
    I've tried to crowd fund Brexit fudge for you today..
  • Elliot said:

    Yes, this is exactly the mindset I assumed/hoped we would get earlier but I am delighted if we get there now. If most Remainers and most Leavers can accept this solution then that is a win for everyone. We don't have to live in a Trumpian zero sum world.
    Fully agree.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited December 2017
    I do like that phrase in the Stephen Bush article "I can't believe it's not brexit!"

    The circle has been a little bit squashed to look like it can maybe, potentially, possibly, be squared.

    It can't.

    TM gone within a year.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    Cyclefree said:

    Given her age and health and the strains she has been under, I do admire Mrs May’s physical and mental tenacity.

    Also, to Big G I just wanted to say that glad to hear you are on the mend and hope you have a restful time this Xmas.

    +1 on both!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,336
  • Pong said:

    TM gone within a year.

    Thats about 51 weeks more than some gave her four short days ago.....
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    And today: 'If the UK wants a transition period beyond 31 December 2020, when the current seven-year EU budget ends, it will have to pay more.

    This is hardly a revelation. The transition period is a restricted form of membership, for which we pay about 10bn euros/year atm. It was never going to be free.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,462

    Oh, and Remainers will continue to try and troll Leavers by saying we've surrendered to Brussels and the EU will have the whip-hand forever, because they're absolute sad-sacks who've been left with nowhere else to go.

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/939110009530671106
  • It is a silly line. I am not sure why we have to see this in terms of the UK winning or losing the negotiation with the EU.
    Because SOme are saying 'the UK caved to everything the EU wanted'?

    Its a negotiation (or it is now) not a 'dictation of terms' as SOme have argued..
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/939110009530671106
    Great to see ultras on both sides hand in hand.
  • TonyE said:

    There's no point addressing them if the people who make such assertions are not open to reason. The outcome will be the outcome - whether its good or bad.

    What we won't be, is part of the increasingly integrated EU federal project. The more they integrate, the more the difference will make itself clear.
    I had this naïve idea that Leavers wanted a country that in due course could be united. Right now Leavers seem to be putting a crowbar in the nation's political faultline and pushing.

    Evidently they want a divided and unhappy country to continue indefinitely.
  • Because SOme are saying 'the UK caved to everything the EU wanted'?

    Its a negotiation (or it is now) not a 'dictation of terms' as SOme have argued..

    If you are suggesting I said that I am afraid you have not understood my posts. The UK has made a welcome and realistic assessment of how to get the best Brexit deal and has acted accordingly. That is a win for the UK.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,883
    Brom said:

    You can smell the anger wafting off the page. The fact that some remain voters are still poo-pooing Mrs May after the deal is they'd rather watch the UK burn so they can be right than ever depart the EU in an orderly fashion. Today is clearly a pretty decent day for the country no matter if leave or remain as it both respects the democratic vote but also throws some bones to remainers who wished for a soft Brexit and were keen to engage in the process rather than snipe and obstruct.
    I don't think old Brookes is that fast - I'm pretty sure he drew that before the deal was announced, and it hasn't aged well overnight.
    Not quite sure why Scott thought it worth posting though.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    Elliot said:



    There is no way animal cruelty standards are laxer in the US than they are in Romania.

    They are, actually. Enforcement in Romania may be debatable, but you'd be surprised how bad the position is in some US farms, where intensification has sometimes reached a point not dreamed of in Romania or anywhere else.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    I had this naïve idea that Leavers wanted a country that in due course could be united. Right now Leavers seem to be putting a crowbar in the nation's political faultline and pushing.

    Evidently they want a divided and unhappy country to continue indefinitely.
    Alastair, pretty much every leaver on here is pretty happy with a deal that is a prelude to a soft Brexit that the majority of Remainers can also live with. It really is time to move on.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/939103076862046210

    What was Osborne saying about half competent Labour leaders?

    The Lib Dem figure is incredible at this stage of the political process
  • Theresa May has had a major success today, shored up by support from the EU. She should be congratulated on that. It's not as simple as the UK caving on everything (though clearly it has moved far further than the EU). She lives to fight another day.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934
    currystar said:

    The Lib Dem figure is incredible at this stage of the political process
    Today has an even number but I can't remember if that means Labour is in favour of leaving the Single Market and Customs Union or not. I fear it may be a little more random than day about but for a significant percentage of the time they do accept that the UK should leave the EU.

    The fact that the only party not really reconciled to that at all is at 7% tells a rather important story.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    I had this naïve idea that Leavers wanted a country that in due course could be united. Right now Leavers seem to be putting a crowbar in the nation's political faultline and pushing.

    Evidently they want a divided and unhappy country to continue indefinitely.
    That's rubbish I'm afraid, many leavers have accepted a compromise here, we won the vote but appreciate the small margin of victory and are happy to accept a 'softer Brexit', if thats not an olive branch I don't know what is. In your unwillingness to embrace a generous offer it suggests you're taking a crowbar to the country yourself. The ball is not in your court and I'd suggest you should be very happy with the concessions that have been made to try and satisfy the likes of yourself.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,883
    Pong said:

    I do like that phrase in the Stephen Bush article "I can't believe it's not brexit!"

    The circle has been a little bit squashed to look like it can maybe, potentially, possibly, be squared.

    It can't.

    TM gone within a year.

    Unless her health takes a turn for the worse, that seems highly unlikely.
    By getting the DUP onside she has cut the ground from under the feet of the headbangers to the right of the party. When opportunists like Johnson are as quick to tweet their support as he was this morning, it's a fairly good clue as to which way the wind is blowing in the Tory party.
    Equally the opposition has been seriously wrong footed again, with Keir Starmer's jeremiads about David Davis' clusterfucks now looking irrelevant.

    Obviously nothing is certain when you lack a parliamentary majority, but the stability of weakness seems likely to persist far longer than you think.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,949

    If you are suggesting I said that I am afraid you have not understood my posts. The UK has made a welcome and realistic assessment of how to get the best Brexit deal and has acted accordingly. That is a win for the UK.

    +1 although win isn't the right word for damage limitation. We are just thankful that the Go Whistle WTO brigade have been told to do their own whistling.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    DavidL said:

    Today has an even number but I can't remember if that means Labour is in favour of leaving the Single Market and Customs Union or not. I fear it may be a little more random than day about but for a significant percentage of the time they do accept that the UK should leave the EU.

    The fact that the only party not really reconciled to that at all is at 7% tells a rather important story.
    Yes the remain (soon to be rejoin) party is performing very poorly. That's definitely something to note.
  • Isn't missing something though. We may align ourselves with SM and customs regulations etc etc, but surely that is not the same thing as allowing continued FoM? So there is, from Leaver viewpoint, a reason to carry on with Brexit.
  • Brom said:

    That's rubbish I'm afraid, many leavers have accepted a compromise here, we won the vote but appreciate the small margin of victory and are happy to accept a 'softer Brexit', if thats not an olive branch I don't know what is. In your unwillingness to embrace a generous offer it suggests you're taking a crowbar to the country yourself. The ball is not in your court and I'd suggest you should be very happy with the concessions that have been made to try and satisfy the likes of yourself.
    The concessions have been made because they were unavoidable. It turns out that a bad deal is better than no deal.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    MaxPB said:

    Yes the remain (soon to be rejoin) party is performing very poorly. That's definitely something to note.
    I think it's more a case of the irrelevant to British politics party that happens to want to rejoin the EU is performing very poorly.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited December 2017



    The concessions have been made because they were unavoidable. It turns out that a bad deal is better than no deal.

    But you would have been furious with any deal that wasn't staying in and signing up to the euro plus paying in a bit more.

    So it's difficult to take your misery that seriously.
  • IanB2 said:

    +1 although win isn't the right word for damage limitation. We are just thankful that the Go Whistle WTO brigade have been told to do their own whistling.

    It's a win given that Brexit won and has to be implemented by a Tory government!

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    CD13 said:

    I see the more fanatical Remainers aren't happy. May must have done something right for a change.

    Who are these fanatical Remainers ?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,612



    I had this naïve idea that Leavers wanted a country that in due course could be united. Right now Leavers seem to be putting a crowbar in the nation's political faultline and pushing.

    Evidently they want a divided and unhappy country to continue indefinitely.

    If what is reported is correct - then this is surely the best possible deal at this stage from a Remainer perspective (absent the large bill I suppose)?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    The concessions have been made because they were unavoidable. It turns out that a bad deal is better than no deal.

    There's no indication, yet, that this is a bad deal. Quite the opposite, it seems like the EU have agreed to a lot I thought they wouldn't agree to.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited December 2017
    That is absolutely correct. Some credit should also go to Arlene for "forcing" Theresa towards "regulatory alignment" for the UK as a whole. Now we know why the DUP were not shown the details too early.
  • Brom said:

    You can smell the anger wafting off the page. The fact that some remain voters are still poo-pooing Mrs May after the deal is they'd rather watch the UK burn so they can be right than ever depart the EU in an orderly fashion. Today is clearly a pretty decent day for the country no matter if leave or remain as it both respects the democratic vote but also throws some bones to remainers who wished for a soft Brexit and were keen to engage in the process rather than snipe and obstruct.
    Today is a bloody fantastic day. The hard Brexit WTO deal that foaming-dog-fever crazy people were hoping for would have destroyed our economy. That threat has gone. Which means that we carry on as we did before, but with a bit more choice in what we do.

    I voted to leave remember - we aren't part of the EU federalisation project and never were going to be. And Martin Schultz has once again restated the ultimate aim - at very least a full fiscal union because thats what they need to make the Euro work long term.

    What had started to alarm me was that the party of free trade appeared to have decided that free trade was evil and that we should fall back on no trade deal. To continue with our excellent free trade deal with the EU and with it the other bilateral deals was always what we should have wanted. And that is what we now get. Unless and until we manage to concoct an alternative to the single market which resolves the Intra-Irish Border, we remain part of the EEA is practice if not in name.

    I can't give the Tory negotiating team any credit because (a) they've wasted 12 months and (b) they threatened everything to end up back at the beginning with the deal they could have done when we triggered A50. David et al were right - the easiest deal in history. Just accept reality, keep on as we are and job done.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited December 2017

    If you are suggesting I said that I am afraid you have not understood my posts.

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.



    The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK

  • Nigelb said:

    Unless her health takes a turn for the worse, that seems highly unlikely.
    By getting the DUP onside she has cut the ground from under the feet of the headbangers to the right of the party. When opportunists like Johnson are as quick to tweet their support as he was this morning, it's a fairly good clue as to which way the wind is blowing in the Tory party.
    Equally the opposition has been seriously wrong footed again, with Keir Starmer's jeremiads about David Davis' clusterfucks now looking irrelevant.

    Obviously nothing is certain when you lack a parliamentary majority, but the stability of weakness seems likely to persist far longer than you think.

    The biggest win from today would be if it presaged the removal of Johnson, Fox and Davis from the cabinet. They are no longer needed, surely.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,612
    Nigelb said:

    Unless her health takes a turn for the worse, that seems highly unlikely.
    By getting the DUP onside she has cut the ground from under the feet of the headbangers to the right of the party. When opportunists like Johnson are as quick to tweet their support as he was this morning, it's a fairly good clue as to which way the wind is blowing in the Tory party.
    Equally the opposition has been seriously wrong footed again, with Keir Starmer's jeremiads about David Davis' clusterfucks now looking irrelevant.

    Obviously nothing is certain when you lack a parliamentary majority, but the stability of weakness seems likely to persist far longer than you think.
    I'm intrigued to see how the likes of JRM, John Redwood et al. react.
    Apparently Steve Baker is on side which is a big + for TM.

    But I'm struggling to reconcile what has been reported, with what JRM's views were in parliament only a few days ago.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    surbiton said:

    Who are these fanatical Remainers ?
    James O'Brien, Ian Dunt, various twitter types with snowflakes, rainbows and EU citizen next to their names, numerous other journalists, Greens, Lib Dems and a few PB people if you scroll down. There's a lot of anger out there this morning (and indeed every day since June 2016).

    These are the EU fanatics who can't understand why we are moving away rather than towards Federalism.

    The pragmatic, rational and reasonable remainers, those that respected and tried to understand the vote yet wished for a cordial Brexit and strong EU relations should rightly be pleased this morning.
  • I did not vote for Brexit and it still concerns me but at the moment it is making me rich.

    Brexit is so far making the country a litte poorer but within that there are some wide variations and there is a certain irony that that those who seem to be doing the best out of Brexit are not the ones who voted for it. I run a mid sized manufacturing company selling globally. We have never been busier as a result of the drop in sterling. As long as we can stay aligned with European regulations for medical products there is no reason to see this stop.

    If TM can pull off the trick that we remain in the common market but we have some better control over immigration then she deserves to stay PM.



  • rkrkrk said:

    If what is reported is correct - then this is surely the best possible deal at this stage from a Remainer perspective (absent the large bill I suppose)?
    As I said below, Theresa May has made the best of a very difficult hand.

    It will have almost no impact on the wider mood in the nation. Leave supporters seem to think that they can move on from their atrocious behaviour and the nation will unite behind them. It won't.
  • If you are suggesting I said that I am afraid you have not understood my posts.

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.



    The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK



    The EU getting what it wanted from the UK does not mean the UK has caved. It has accepted reality. That really isn't the same thing. There is no humiliation in being sensible and realistic.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,001
    edited December 2017
    MaxPB said:

    There's no indication, yet, that this is a bad deal. Quite the opposite, it seems like the EU have agreed to a lot I thought they wouldn't agree to.

    But that may be because you have always assumed the EU would act malignly to ensure the UK was left in the worst possible position.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,612



    The biggest win from today would be if it presaged the removal of Johnson, Fox and Davis from the cabinet. They are no longer needed, surely.

    Quite the opposite I would have thought.
    This deal has to be sold to her backbenchers or enough of them anyway - many of whom will have deep reservations.

    Kick Boris out now and he could easily turn around and say TM could have gotten more out of the EU...
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,376
    It was fun watching Keir Starmer squirm on the BBC a few minutes ago. We can have full common market and custom union benefits with the right to set our own border controls if we negotiate properly.

    Which EU country would be the first to veto that?

    Starmer must know he's talking bollocks.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I did not vote for Brexit and it still concerns me but at the moment it is making me rich.

    Brexit is so far making the country a litte poorer but within that there are some wide variations and there is a certain irony that that those who seem to be doing the best out of Brexit are not the ones who voted for it. I run a mid sized manufacturing company selling globally. We have never been busier as a result of the drop in sterling. As long as we can stay aligned with European regulations for medical products there is no reason to see this stop.

    If TM can pull off the trick that we remain in the common market but we have some better control over immigration then she deserves to stay PM.



    Can't agree more. My company is in the same situation.
  • Nigelb said:

    Unless her health takes a turn for the worse, that seems highly unlikely.
    By getting the DUP onside she has cut the ground from under the feet of the headbangers to the right of the party. When opportunists like Johnson are as quick to tweet their support as he was this morning, it's a fairly good clue as to which way the wind is blowing in the Tory party.
    Equally the opposition has been seriously wrong footed again, with Keir Starmer's jeremiads about David Davis' clusterfucks now looking irrelevant.

    Obviously nothing is certain when you lack a parliamentary majority, but the stability of weakness seems likely to persist far longer than you think.
    I don't think she is out of the woods yet, by a long way.

    This may unravel over the weekend when Tory MPs face their local party members over xmas drinks or whatever.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nigelb said:

    I don't think old Brookes is that fast - I'm pretty sure he drew that before the deal was announced, and it hasn't aged well overnight.
    Not quite sure why Scott thought it worth posting though.

    To prompt debate. QED
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited December 2017

    Who wrote this then?

    But the other big thing that is becoming clear is that the only “conclusion” that makes any sense is re-emerging as a concrete political possibility. The Border problem can be dealt with only if the UK stays in the customs union and, preferably, also the single market.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-parishes-of-fermanagh-and-tyrone-are-unravelling-brexit-1.3201011

    And this:

    On the three issues on which “sufficient progress” had to be made – people, money and Ireland – Britain seems likely to suffer a hat-trick of defeats.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-hard-brexiteers-have-just-discovered-britain-is-weaker-than-ireland-1.3316263
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,883
    rkrkrk said:

    I'm intrigued to see how the likes of JRM, John Redwood et al. react.
    Apparently Steve Baker is on side which is a big + for TM.

    But I'm struggling to reconcile what has been reported, with what JRM's views were in parliament only a few days ago.
    I'm sure JRM will be struggling, too. Which is what happens when the ground shifts from under you.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,612

    As I said below, Theresa May has made the best of a very difficult hand.

    It will have almost no impact on the wider mood in the nation. Leave supporters seem to think that they can move on from their atrocious behaviour and the nation will unite behind them. It won't.
    I agree - (and permit a little bit more self-congratulation) - I did make this point a few days ago that she hasn't negotiated badly at all - if you judge according to the reality of the situation rather than the benchmark of what was originally promised.

    Sadly for her I suspect the exit bill total is going to be the only thing that resonates.

    I don't see that Leave supporters (as opposed to campaigners/leaders) have behaved atrociously. They have different values to me - but I don't blame them for the nastiness of the likes of Farage/immigration posters etc. unless they actually expressed support for that stuff.
    Anyway that discussion is well trodden ground on here for you!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Brom said:

    James O'Brien, Ian Dunt, various twitter types with snowflakes, rainbows and EU citizen next to their names, numerous other journalists, Greens, Lib Dems and a few PB people if you scroll down. There's a lot of anger out there this morning (and indeed every day since June 2016).

    These are the EU fanatics who can't understand why we are moving away rather than towards Federalism.

    The pragmatic, rational and reasonable remainers, those that respected and tried to understand the vote yet wished for a cordial Brexit and strong EU relations should rightly be pleased this morning.
    I am a strong Remainer. I think 90% of Remainers are reasonably satisfied. Hard Brexit is definitely out. And the default position is "regulatory alignment" for the UK as a whole if no agreement is reached.
  • Isn't missing something though. We may align ourselves with SM and customs regulations etc etc, but surely that is not the same thing as allowing continued FoM? So there is, from Leaver viewpoint, a reason to carry on with Brexit.

    Yep - I think that FoM is the key thing from here. There will clearly need to be some limits that have some effect, or the whole exercise will have been largely pointless.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,883

    The biggest win from today would be if it presaged the removal of Johnson, Fox and Davis from the cabinet. They are no longer needed, surely.

    They are needed until the final agreement is concluded. For now, they are trapped - as Johnson's praise for May this morning suggests.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Leave supporters seem to think that they can move on from their atrocious behaviour and the nation will unite behind them. It won't.
    Ah the huge issue that appears nowhere in polling of the wider public.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Quite the opposite I would have thought.
    This deal has to be sold to her backbenchers or enough of them anyway - many of whom will have deep reservations.

    Kick Boris out now and he could easily turn around and say TM could have gotten more out of the EU...
    Yep. Keep Boris inside or force him to quit. Getting rid of him now gives him carte blanche to attack the deal no matter how much of it he agrees with so long as he thinks he can make political capital out of it.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    rkrkrk said:

    I agree - (and permit a little bit more self-congratulation) - I did make this point a few days ago that she hasn't negotiated badly at all - if you judge according to the reality of the situation rather than the benchmark of what was originally promised.

    Sadly for her I suspect the exit bill total is going to be the only thing that resonates.

    I don't see that Leave supporters (as opposed to campaigners/leaders) have behaved atrociously. They have different values to me - but I don't blame them for the nastiness of the likes of Farage/immigration posters etc. unless they actually expressed support for that stuff.
    Anyway that discussion is well trodden ground on here for you!
    Leave supporters are the majority of the country (52%). If anyone has behaved atrociously, its the handful of hard line remainers who have done and continue to do all they can to undermine the most democratic vote for change in British history, and who have sided with the mercenary behaviour of a foreign power.
This discussion has been closed.