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If Theresa May chose not to consult with the DUP until the last minute before a deal was to be announced, she has to go. Someone that stupid is not fit to be PM.
I say this as somebody whose high hopes for her in the early days have been well and truly trashed.0 -
I've asked Shadsy to put a market.
Will Boris Johnson stand in the next Tory leadership contest. For the purposes of this bet, he must be on the ballot paper of the first round voting of MPs.0 -
That is largely her own fault though. She should have been able to game 340-350 seats in GE2017.Pulpstar said:
It is what happens when you're weak as piss. Pulled by the remain faction (Soubry, Clarke), the hard leave faction (IDS, Mogg), the DUP, Ireland and the EU in all directions.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
Although to be fair it wouldn't have been much easier with a majority of 12. She'd have avoided the humiliation but would also look a bit frit.0 -
arent the DUP claiming the Irish govt vetoed releasing the text ?RoyalBlue said:If Theresa May chose not to consult with the DUP until the last minute before a deal was to be announced, she has to go. Someone that stupid is not fit to be PM.
I say this as somebody whose high hopes for her in the early days have been well and truly trashed.0 -
0
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IDS is far closer to the activist membership than, for example, Cameron, Osborne or Clarke are.Ishmael_Z said:
Why is IDS even in the picture, when the party should have shot him in the street like an old, mad, unloved and smelly dog in 2003? This is what comes of being a bunch of sentimental pussies with a penchant for inclusiveness.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's some Leavers I respect, IDS and his mob aren't ones I respect, they'll become unbearable, and veto any bit of pragmatism that is required do get an orderly Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
You think she is useless (as do I) so why do you think her being forced out is 'tragic'.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
Some of them get positively tumescent over a Hard Brexit.0 -
So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?0
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You and me both and no one has defended her more. If she did that it was crassRoyalBlue said:If Theresa May chose not to consult with the DUP until the last minute before a deal was to be announced, she has to go. Someone that stupid is not fit to be PM.
I say this as somebody whose high hopes for her in the early days have been well and truly trashed.0 -
No ideaJonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
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Agreed. And it looks like they didn't take the DUP on that journey either.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm not certain what that drafting is supposed to mean. What I think is intended is to say that, if the issue isn't largely solved by the trade deal (the UK's preferred option), then they'll try to solve it by some NI-specific regulatory fudge. But I agree it's awful drafting - it was probably written by committee and has been pulled around by multiple participants, ending up with gobbledygook.Casino_Royale said:Varadkar played high stakes, and his bluff has been called by the DUP.
He should know that with Irish politics you're playing with fire.
But the second part of the leaked drafting is possibly an even bigger problem than the first, since it effectively says that in the absence of any deal NI will still *fully* align with the RoI (what about the rest of the UK?) and therefore suggests a border in the Irish Sea might be conceded in a no deal Brexit, or the UK would fully align itself regardless rather than changing its regulatory model.
It's awful drafting, and risks enraging the core Brexiteers and the Unionists.
They have every reason to think that the wheel that squeaks gets the grease.0 -
To be clear, the Labour leadership joined the Tories in the No lobby for an amendment to keep the UK in the CU last week: http://www.itv.com/news/2017-11-21/john-mcdonnell-customs-union-amendment/PClipp said:
Ever since Corbyn took over, Labour have been very careful to commit themselves to nothing, at the same time as trying to suggest the compete opposite - on every issue. All commentators can pontificate extensively on the subject of the policies of the next Labour government, knowing full well that there will be evidence somewhere to support his assertions. It is all a bit of a waste of time, as is Labour.Richard_Tyndall said:
Grasping at straws there.surbiton said:Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit
From the manifesto
"Labour will work with global trading partners to develop ‘best-in-class’ free trade and investment agreements that remove trade barriers and promote skilled jobs and high standards." - Not possible inside the Customs Union.
"Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union. Britain’s immigration system will change" - Not possible inside the Single Market
"Labour will develop and implement fair immigration rules." - Not possible inside the Single Market.
"We will rejoin the Government Procurement Agreement" - Not possible inside the Single Market or the Customs Union0 -
There are only three who could do it, feasibly:Big_G_NorthWales said:
No ideaJonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
Hammond
Hunt
Gove0 -
Lord Hague until a new leader is elected.Jonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
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He is the natural caretaker, absolutely.TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hague until a new leader is elected.Jonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
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But seriously, this 'impasse' (really just a bit more negotiating) is not going to lead to May's downfall.0
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Which surely will not happen because it won't get through the Commons.HYUFD said:
If they do they may have enough votes to put Mogg in the final 2 to the members to succeed May which means PM Rees Mogg and ultra hard BrexitTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.0 -
It would have to be someone not seen as long term threat to main contenders.Mortimer said:
There are only three who could do it, feasibly:Big_G_NorthWales said:
No ideaJonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
Hammond
Hunt
Gove
Green would have fitted the bill.0 -
Of those 3, Gove is the only viable option.Mortimer said:
There are only three who could do it, feasibly:Big_G_NorthWales said:
No ideaJonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
Hammond
Hunt
Gove0 -
On topic:- thanks to OGH for the recommendation.
On my list now, along with 'Fall Out' by Tim Shipman and 'Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton's Doomed Campaign'.0 -
Not so sure if she has taken the DUP for grantedMortimer said:But seriously, this 'impasse' (really just a bit more negotiating) is not going to lead to May's downfall.
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Or, put more succinctly, Gove is all you need.RoyalBlue said:
Of those 3, Gove is the only viable option.Mortimer said:
There are only three who could do it, feasibly:Big_G_NorthWales said:
No ideaJonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
Hammond
Hunt
Gove0 -
No, Gove can't stop plotting, he's already annoyed the Leavers.RoyalBlue said:
Of those 3, Gove is the only viable option.Mortimer said:
There are only three who could do it, feasibly:Big_G_NorthWales said:
No ideaJonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
Hammond
Hunt
Gove0 -
The commons can’t stop us leaving without a deal.MikeL said:
Which surely will not happen because it won't get through the Commons.HYUFD said:
If they do they may have enough votes to put Mogg in the final 2 to the members to succeed May which means PM Rees Mogg and ultra hard BrexitTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.0 -
Good idea.TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hague until a new leader is elected.Jonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
And if it happened, who knows what happens next?
ie He takes over, first few days go OK, then people start saying he is permanent solution, then talk starts of him returning to the Commons ......0 -
The EU27 never had a problem with moving to Phase Two if the UK did what was required in Phase One. It looks like the UK government has finally understood that and is thus making the necessary concessions. It's all good news.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's true, and it's a point I've made many times.AlastairMeeks said:
The problem there is that if "insufficient progress" is made in December, businesses will start activating their plans to counteract the possibility that no decent deal will be done. The end of the countdown is much closer than many seem to realise.Richard_Nabavi said:
Or, which is much more likely, the EU talks continue with much fudging and Theresa May staggers on. It's not as though anyone else in their right mind (I know, I know) would want to put the poisoned chalice to their own lips.AlastairMeeks said:
It's easy to see how it might not happen. Theresa May gets thrown out of a window onto a dung heap in a Prague Spring, to be replaced by a Prime Minister committed to delivering a no-deal Brexit with continuing DUP support, faute de mieux thanks to those nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
However, the big news of the last few days is that the EU suddenly seem rather keen on agreeing a trade deal. It has been a dramatic change of tone and urgency. So, recalcitrant Irish aside, I think the chances of a reasonably smooth deal have much increased.
Of course, that doesn't mean that the Irish won't kibosh it. Even Enda Kenny is now pointing out in public how dumb they are being:
"It is important that the work being undertaken by the foreign minister Simon Coveney and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is focussed on having an agreement on what will have to be sensitive language in order to achieve the outcome what we want here."
I expect therefore that there will be much leaning on Mr Varadkar in the next 48 hours.
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Mortimer said:
Or, put more succinctly, Gove is all you need.RoyalBlue said:
Of those 3, Gove is the only viable option.Mortimer said:
There are only three who could do it, feasibly:Big_G_NorthWales said:
No ideaJonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
Hammond
Hunt
Gove
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The same Lord Hague who persuaded David Cameron to hold the referendum to see off the Brexit loons? With political judgement like that, what could possibly go wrong?TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hague until a new leader is elected.Jonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
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That’s a definite no. He didn’t stand last time, because even his own wife doesn’t trust him and there’s a whole closet full of skeletons waiting to show themselves.TheScreamingEagles said:I've asked Shadsy to put a market.
Will Boris Johnson stand in the next Tory leadership contest. For the purposes of this bet, he must be on the ballot paper of the first round voting of MPs.
Mrs May has shown the effect of the Peter Principle by making him Foreign Secretary.0 -
The Commons has already voted to trigger Article 50 whether we get a deal or not now is up to the UK government and the EUMikeL said:
Which surely will not happen because it won't get through the Commons.HYUFD said:
If they do they may have enough votes to put Mogg in the final 2 to the members to succeed May which means PM Rees Mogg and ultra hard BrexitTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.0 -
I believe the approved term is "a wealth of talent"!Richard_Nabavi said:
Or that they've got lots of convincing candidates!IanB2 said:
When the front runner in the ConHome poll is pulling in just 18% support, we can be sure that they don't have a more convincing candidate waiting in the wings.Richard_Nabavi said:
And of course changing leader won't change that much. She may not be the most accomplished of politicians, but even if she were that wouldn't create any more Conservative MPs or eliminate the divisions on the way forward.Pulpstar said:
It is what happens when you're weak as piss. Pulled by the remain faction (Soubry, Clarke), the hard leave faction (IDS, Mogg), the DUP, Ireland and the EU in all directions.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.0 -
Whatever the legalities may appear, it would become practically impossible.not_on_fire said:
The commons can’t stop us leaving without a deal.MikeL said:
Which surely will not happen because it won't get through the Commons.HYUFD said:
If they do they may have enough votes to put Mogg in the final 2 to the members to succeed May which means PM Rees Mogg and ultra hard BrexitTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
eg The EU Withdrawal Bill would get amended.0 -
The DUP are just being as hold his as ever just like the Irish government, May cannot move to one and carry the other without difficulty, ultimately some UK wide regulatory alignment may be neededBig_G_NorthWales said:
Not so sure if she has taken the DUP for grantedMortimer said:But seriously, this 'impasse' (really just a bit more negotiating) is not going to lead to May's downfall.
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That doesn't matter. Notwithstanding the unbounded narcissism and self-obsession of our members of Parliament, as long as we're in the EU Westminster in a subordinate legislature. They can pass what they want; it doesn't affect the workings of Article 50.MikeL said:
Whatever the legalities may appear, it would become practically impossible.not_on_fire said:
The commons can’t stop us leaving without a deal.MikeL said:
Which surely will not happen because it won't get through the Commons.HYUFD said:
If they do they may have enough votes to put Mogg in the final 2 to the members to succeed May which means PM Rees Mogg and ultra hard BrexitTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
eg The EU Withdrawal Bill would get amended.0 -
That bloke with the box of Kleenex in his office...Jonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
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Green would have been a good option, but not when there’s an investigation ongoing. I agree with TSE that Lord Hague as an interim leader would work.Jonathan said:
It would have to be someone not seen as long term threat to main contenders.Mortimer said:
There are only three who could do it, feasibly:Big_G_NorthWales said:
No ideaJonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
Hammond
Hunt
Gove
Green would have fitted the bill.0 -
Wasn`t that just some of the Labour leadership?Mortimer said:
To be clear, the Labour leadership joined the Tories in the No lobby for an amendment to keep the UK in the CU last week: http://www.itv.com/news/2017-11-21/john-mcdonnell-customs-union-amendment/PClipp said:
Ever since Corbyn took over, Labour have been very careful to commit themselves to nothing, at the same time as trying to suggest the compete opposite - on every issue. All commentators can pontificate extensively on the subject of the policies of the next Labour government, knowing full well that there will be evidence somewhere to support his assertions. It is all a bit of a waste of time, as is Labour.Richard_Tyndall said:
Grasping at straws there.surbiton said:Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit
From the manifesto
"Labour will work with global trading partners to develop ‘best-in-class’ free trade and investment agreements that remove trade barriers and promote skilled jobs and high standards." - Not possible inside the Customs Union.
"Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union. Britain’s immigration system will change" - Not possible inside the Single Market
"Labour will develop and implement fair immigration rules." - Not possible inside the Single Market.
"We will rejoin the Government Procurement Agreement" - Not possible inside the Single Market or the Customs Union
And for that matter, some of the Tories?
Nobody knows what either of these two parties stand for nowadays.0 -
The same Lord Hague who also got the 2nd worst Tory general election result since WW2? (Major at least won in 1992). May would likely stay PM until her successor as Tory leader chosenDecrepitJohnL said:
The same Lord Hague who persuaded David Cameron to hold the referendum to see off the Brexit loons? With political judgement like that, what could possibly go wrong?TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hague until a new leader is elected.Jonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
0 -
I can't understand why Michael Gove isn't favourite for next leader of the Conservatives. To my eyes he should be an absolute maximum of 4/1.0
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Michael Gove doesn't have an enemy in the world, only his friends hate him.AlastairMeeks said:I can't understand why Michael Gove isn't favourite for next leader of the Conservatives. To my eyes he should be an absolute maximum of 4/1.
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300+ Tory MPs, and their only option as interim leader is in the Lords.
Says it all, really.0 -
Worth remembering the DUP threw their toys out of the pram last time before agreeing a very belated S&C deal with the Tories.
A tungsten tipped Brexit and a new GE doesn't suit them either so I still expect a deal, but possibly not until over the weekend, or even early next week.0 -
He doesn't need to be liked. He just needs to be the only conceivable option. The 4/1 estimate takes into full account his ability to burn through friends.TheScreamingEagles said:
Michael Gove doesn't have an enemy in the world, only his friends hate him.AlastairMeeks said:I can't understand why Michael Gove isn't favourite for next leader of the Conservatives. To my eyes he should be an absolute maximum of 4/1.
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Labour's policy is very simple,to retain maximum flexibility at all times and always be nimble and agile enough able to triangulate between the various remain or leave ideologues to create a bridge to a more united United Kingdom as events unfold,as they surely will.Labour's poicy is one of eternal vigilance to save the UK from itself.HYUFD said:
So no commitment to permanent membership of the single market and a promise to end free movement thensurbiton said:Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit0 -
Is everyone fair game for your criticisms?RoyalBlue said:
That doesn't matter. Notwithstanding the unbounded narcissism and self-obsession of our members of Parliament, as long as we're in the EU Westminster in a subordinate legislature. They can pass what they want; it doesn't affect the workings of Article 50.MikeL said:
Whatever the legalities may appear, it would become practically impossible.not_on_fire said:
The commons can’t stop us leaving without a deal.MikeL said:
Which surely will not happen because it won't get through the Commons.HYUFD said:
If they do they may have enough votes to put Mogg in the final 2 to the members to succeed May which means PM Rees Mogg and ultra hard BrexitTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
eg The EU Withdrawal Bill would get amended.
You seem to turn on anyone if it suits you.0 -
As he polls disastrously with the public. Jacob Rees Mogg polls much better and if you are going to have a hardened Brexiteer you may as well pick the one who is more likely to win you votesAlastairMeeks said:I can't understand why Michael Gove isn't favourite for next leader of the Conservatives. To my eyes he should be an absolute maximum of 4/1.
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He's pissed off the Cameroons, who still have a substantial number in Parliament, one of Boris Johnson's supporters, and current minister has publicly admitted his wants to castrate Michael Gove.AlastairMeeks said:
He doesn't need to be liked. He just needs to be the only conceivable option. The 4/1 estimate takes into full account his ability to burn through friends.TheScreamingEagles said:
Michael Gove doesn't have an enemy in the world, only his friends hate him.AlastairMeeks said:I can't understand why Michael Gove isn't favourite for next leader of the Conservatives. To my eyes he should be an absolute maximum of 4/1.
That is not a route to the leadership.0 -
It is nice, in a world of politics in flux, that LDs are still whinging that they should be in charge. Some things never change.PClipp said:
Wasn`t that just some of the Labour leadership?Mortimer said:
To be clear, the Labour leadership joined the Tories in the No lobby for an amendment to keep the UK in the CU last week: http://www.itv.com/news/2017-11-21/john-mcdonnell-customs-union-amendment/PClipp said:
Ever since Corbyn took over, Labour have been very careful to commit themselves to nothing, at the same time as trying to suggest the compete opposite - on every issue. All commentators can pontificate extensively on the subject of the policies of the next Labour government, knowing full well that there will be evidence somewhere to support his assertions. It is all a bit of a waste of time, as is Labour.Richard_Tyndall said:
Grasping at straws there.surbiton said:Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit
From the manifesto
"Labour will work with global trading partners to develop ‘best-in-class’ free trade and investment agreements that remove trade barriers and promote skilled jobs and high standards." - Not possible inside the Customs Union.
"Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union. Britain’s immigration system will change" - Not possible inside the Single Market
"Labour will develop and implement fair immigration rules." - Not possible inside the Single Market.
"We will rejoin the Government Procurement Agreement" - Not possible inside the Single Market or the Customs Union
And for that matter, some of the Tories?
Nobody knows what either of these two parties stand for nowadays.0 -
Enda Kenny was the least impressive Taoiseach in Irish history.SouthamObserver said:
The EU27 never had a problem with moving to Phase Two if the UK did what was required in Phase One. It looks like the UK government has finally understood that and is thus making the necessary concessions. It's all good news.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's true, and it's a point I've made many times.AlastairMeeks said:
The problem there is that if "insufficient progress" is made in December, businesses will start activating their plans to counteract the possibility that no decent deal will be done. The end of the countdown is much closer than many seem to realise.Richard_Nabavi said:
Or, which is much more likely, the EU talks continue with much fudging and Theresa May staggers on. It's not as though anyone else in their right mind (I know, I know) would want to put the poisoned chalice to their own lips.AlastairMeeks said:
It's easy to see how it might not happen. Theresa May gets thrown out of a window onto a dung heap in a Prague Spring, to be replaced by a Prime Minister committed to delivering a no-deal Brexit with continuing DUP support, faute de mieux thanks to those nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
However, the big news of the last few days is that the EU suddenly seem rather keen on agreeing a trade deal. It has been a dramatic change of tone and urgency. So, recalcitrant Irish aside, I think the chances of a reasonably smooth deal have much increased.
Of course, that doesn't mean that the Irish won't kibosh it. Even Enda Kenny is now pointing out in public how dumb they are being:
"It is important that the work being undertaken by the foreign minister Simon Coveney and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is focussed on having an agreement on what will have to be sensitive language in order to achieve the outcome what we want here."
I expect therefore that there will be much leaning on Mr Varadkar in the next 48 hours.
The Irish won't wear a hard border for very sound economic and political reasons. They are trying to bring the whole weight of the EU to bear on the UK to ensure the hard border never happens. It would be dumb of them to do otherwise.0 -
The DUP red line seems to be that the situation in NI should not be different tot he one elsewhere in the UK. That is pretty easily dealt with by extending what was agreed to for NI to the rest of the UK.Casino_Royale said:Worth remembering the DUP threw their toys out of the pram last time before agreeing a very belated S&C deal with the Tories.
A tungsten tipped Brexit and a new GE doesn't suit them either so I still expect a deal, but possibly not until over the weekend, or even early next week.0 -
And in doing so, they're risking a hard border when it wasn't threatened before.The_Woodpecker said:
Enda Kenny was the least impressive Taoiseach in Irish history.SouthamObserver said:
The EU27 never had a problem with moving to Phase Two if the UK did what was required in Phase One. It looks like the UK government has finally understood that and is thus making the necessary concessions. It's all good news.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's true, and it's a point I've made many times.AlastairMeeks said:
The problem there is that if "insufficient progress" is made in December, businesses will start activating their plans to counteract the possibility that no decent deal will be done. The end of the countdown is much closer than many seem to realise.Richard_Nabavi said:
Or, which is much more likely, the EU talks continue with much fudging and Theresa May staggers on. It's not as though anyone else in their right mind (I know, I know) would want to put the poisoned chalice to their own lips.AlastairMeeks said:
It's easy to see how it might not happen. Theresa May gets thrown out of a window onto a dung heap in a Prague Spring, to be replaced by a Prime Minister committed to delivering a no-deal Brexit with continuing DUP support, faute de mieux thanks to those nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
However, the big news of the last few days is that the EU suddenly seem rather keen on agreeing a trade deal. It has been a dramatic change of tone and urgency. So, recalcitrant Irish aside, I think the chances of a reasonably smooth deal have much increased.
Of course, that doesn't mean that the Irish won't kibosh it. Even Enda Kenny is now pointing out in public how dumb they are being:
"It is important that the work being undertaken by the foreign minister Simon Coveney and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is focussed on having an agreement on what will have to be sensitive language in order to achieve the outcome what we want here."
I expect therefore that there will be much leaning on Mr Varadkar in the next 48 hours.
The Irish won't wear a hard border for very sound economic and political reasons. They are trying to bring the whole weight of the EU to bear on the UK to ensure the hard border never happens. It would be dumb of them to do otherwise.
In Poker, that is like bluffing with just a pair of twos. When the pair of twos came out on the flop.0 -
He's pursuing a decade old vendetta and calling it public interest. He, and his evidence stealing chum, need some time inside to be educated on public interest.Yorkcity said:
Reading the guardian article ,he states he was not the source of the Sunday Times article.The journalist told him that his statement was from the leveson enquiry.Anyways you have already made your mind up ,as you keep using the word bent.JonnyJimmy said:
He'd probably be better off using his time working out how he's going to keep himself out of the big house. That he's continuing his decade old vendetta against Green with the threat of legal action makes him look even more bent.Yorkcity said:
I think the liar accusation .JonnyJimmy said:
"The allegations about the material and computer, now nine years old, are false, disreputable political smears from a discredited police officer acting in flagrant breach of his duty to keep the details of police investigations confidential, and amount to little more than an unscrupulous character assassination."Yorkcity said:
He's going to sue him for calling him 'discredited'?0 -
That seems fair. I think the draft of the arrangement said alignment unless there was a deal negotiated otherwise. Allows us to leave in alignment, then negotiate things further down the line.SouthamObserver said:
The DUP red line seems to be that the situation in NI should not be different tot he one elsewhere in the UK. That is pretty easily dealt with by extending what was agreed to for NI to the rest of the UK.Casino_Royale said:Worth remembering the DUP threw their toys out of the pram last time before agreeing a very belated S&C deal with the Tories.
A tungsten tipped Brexit and a new GE doesn't suit them either so I still expect a deal, but possibly not until over the weekend, or even early next week.0 -
Very different circumstances. The DUP have clear red lines and they are clearly very comfortable with their position here. They're the one player in this that really won't mind if everything falls over, so long as their red line is protected.Casino_Royale said:Worth remembering the DUP threw their toys out of the pram last time before agreeing a very belated S&C deal with the Tories.
A tungsten tipped Brexit and a new GE doesn't suit them either so I still expect a deal, but possibly not until over the weekend, or even early next week.
If a deal is eventually done this week, it won't be by the DUP caving in.0 -
The Irish are doing what is best for Ireland. In doing so, they are drawing attention to the fact that you cannot maintain the status of the current border on the island of Ireland without significant UK concessions. Voters in NI were told that there would be no change to the status of the border post-Brexit. Claims to the contrary were dismissed as Project Fear during the referendum campaign and the PM has subsequently reaffirmed that commitment. It's not unreasonable for the UK to be held to that. Regulatory alignment with the EU in a number of defined areas across the UK looks to be the solution - even though it will annoy may on the Tory right.The_Woodpecker said:
Enda Kenny was the least impressive Taoiseach in Irish history.SouthamObserver said:
The EU27 never had a problem with moving to Phase Two if the UK did what was required in Phase One. It looks like the UK government has finally understood that and is thus making the necessary concessions. It's all good news.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's true, and it's a point I've made many times.AlastairMeeks said:
The problem there is that if "insufficient progress" is made in December, businesses will start activating their plans to counteract the possibility that no decent deal will be done. The end of the countdown is much closer than many seem to realise.Richard_Nabavi said:
Or, lips.AlastairMeeks said:
It's nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
However, the big news of the last few days is that the EU suddenly seem rather keen on agreeing a trade deal. It has been a dramatic change of tone and urgency. So, recalcitrant Irish aside, I think the chances of a reasonably smooth deal have much increased.
Of course, that doesn't mean that the Irish won't kibosh it. Even Enda Kenny is now pointing out in public how dumb they are being:
"It is important that the work being undertaken by the foreign minister Simon Coveney and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is focussed on having an agreement on what will have to be sensitive language in order to achieve the outcome what we want here."
I expect therefore that there will be much leaning on Mr Varadkar in the next 48 hours.
The Irish won't wear a hard border for very sound economic and political reasons. They are trying to bring the whole weight of the EU to bear on the UK to ensure the hard border never happens. It would be dumb of them to do otherwise.
0 -
Which is what Davis said in parliament today. Not sure really what the hold up here is, we're not being told something.SouthamObserver said:
The DUP red line seems to be that the situation in NI should not be different tot he one elsewhere in the UK. That is pretty easily dealt with by extending what was agreed to for NI to the rest of the UK.Casino_Royale said:Worth remembering the DUP threw their toys out of the pram last time before agreeing a very belated S&C deal with the Tories.
A tungsten tipped Brexit and a new GE doesn't suit them either so I still expect a deal, but possibly not until over the weekend, or even early next week.0 -
But they are up against someone with a poorer hand. As we all know, the only country in the current EU that does even worse than the Irish from a No Deal Brexit is the UK.Mortimer said:
And in doing so, they're risking a hard border when it wasn't threatened before.The_Woodpecker said:
Enda Kenny was the least impressive Taoiseach in Irish history.SouthamObserver said:
The EU27 never news.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's true, and it's a point I've made many times.AlastairMeeks said:
The problem there is that if "insufficient progress" is made in December, businesses will start activating their plans to counteract the possibility that no decent deal will be done. The end of the countdown is much closer than many seem to realise.Richard_Nabavi said:
Or, which is much more likely, the EU talks continue with much fudging and Theresa May staggers on. It's not as though anyone else in their right mind (I know, I know) would want to put the poisoned chalice to their own lips.AlastairMeeks said:
It's easy to see how it might not happen. Theresa May gets thrown out of a window onto a dung heap in a Prague Spring, to be replaced by a Prime Minister committed to delivering a no-deal Brexit with continuing DUP support, faute de mieux thanks to those nasty Continentals/Irish.surbiton said:
Still not a good price. I think it should be evens now. I really cannot see it not happening.AndyJS said:Election in 2018 is 9/4 with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
However, increased.
Of course, that doesn't mean that the Irish won't kibosh it. Even Enda Kenny is now pointing out in public how dumb they are being:
"It is important that the work being undertaken by the foreign minister Simon Coveney and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is focussed on having an agreement on what will have to be sensitive language in order to achieve the outcome what we want here."
I expect therefore that there will be much leaning on Mr Varadkar in the next 48 hours.
The Irish won't wear a hard border for very sound economic and political reasons. They are trying to bring the whole weight of the EU to bear on the UK to ensure the hard border never happens. It would be dumb of them to do otherwise.
In Poker, that is like bluffing with just a pair of twos. When the pair of twos came out on the flop.
0 -
Christine Keeler, former model at heart of Profumo affair, dies at 750
-
Guido take on the Irish leak that sank the deal:
https://order-order.com/2017/12/05/tweet-sank-no-border-deal/0 -
The DUP may also be split - not in terms of wanting the same as the rest of the UK, but in terms of what it wants the UK to have. As I understand it, some in the party would not be that bothered by a hard Brexit, but others are less sanguine.DanSmith said:
Which is what Davis said in parliament today. Not sure really what the hold up here is, we're not being told something.SouthamObserver said:
The DUP red line seems to be that the situation in NI should not be different tot he one elsewhere in the UK. That is pretty easily dealt with by extending what was agreed to for NI to the rest of the UK.Casino_Royale said:Worth remembering the DUP threw their toys out of the pram last time before agreeing a very belated S&C deal with the Tories.
A tungsten tipped Brexit and a new GE doesn't suit them either so I still expect a deal, but possibly not until over the weekend, or even early next week.
0 -
An ornithological choice between a blue tit and a great tit.HYUFD said:
As he polls disastrously with the public. Jacob Rees Mogg polls much better and if you are going to have a hardened Brexiteer you may as well pick the one who is more likely to win you votesAlastairMeeks said:I can't understand why Michael Gove isn't favourite for next leader of the Conservatives. To my eyes he should be an absolute maximum of 4/1.
0 -
Except it will matter.RoyalBlue said:
That doesn't matter. Notwithstanding the unbounded narcissism and self-obsession of our members of Parliament, as long as we're in the EU Westminster in a subordinate legislature. They can pass what they want; it doesn't affect the workings of Article 50.MikeL said:
Whatever the legalities may appear, it would become practically impossible.not_on_fire said:
The commons can’t stop us leaving without a deal.MikeL said:
Which surely will not happen because it won't get through the Commons.HYUFD said:
If they do they may have enough votes to put Mogg in the final 2 to the members to succeed May which means PM Rees Mogg and ultra hard BrexitTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
eg The EU Withdrawal Bill would get amended.
Bottom line is this: If 75% of MPs AND the EU don't want something to happen, it won't happen.
A way will be found, whatever the precise admin.
eg1. EU extend A50 deadline.
eg2. Con Europhiles pull the plug and we have a GE.
etc0 -
I'm not so sure about that actually. But I am sure they are very good at convincing people that is the case.AlastairMeeks said:
Very different circumstances. The DUP have clear red lines and they are clearly very comfortable with their position here. They're the one player in this that really won't mind if everything falls over, so long as their red line is protected.Casino_Royale said:Worth remembering the DUP threw their toys out of the pram last time before agreeing a very belated S&C deal with the Tories.
A tungsten tipped Brexit and a new GE doesn't suit them either so I still expect a deal, but possibly not until over the weekend, or even early next week.
If a deal is eventually done this week, it won't be by the DUP caving in.
Unlike Theresa May.0 -
In that scenario I wouldn't be surprised if the people gave the 'National Tories' (i.e. those not wanting to betray Brexit) a majority.MikeL said:
Except it will matter.RoyalBlue said:
That doesn't matter. Notwithstanding the unbounded narcissism and self-obsession of our members of Parliament, as long as we're in the EU Westminster in a subordinate legislature. They can pass what they want; it doesn't affect the workings of Article 50.MikeL said:
Whatever the legalities may appear, it would become practically impossible.not_on_fire said:
The commons can’t stop us leaving without a deal.MikeL said:
Which surely will not happen because it won't get through the Commons.HYUFD said:
If they do they may have enough votes to put Mogg in the final 2 to the members to succeed May which means PM Rees Mogg and ultra hard BrexitTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
eg The EU Withdrawal Bill would get amended.
Bottom line is this: If 75% of MPs AND the EU don't want something to happen, it won't happen.
A way will be found, whatever the precise admin.
eg1. EU extend A50 deadline.
eg2. Con Europhiles pull the plug and we have a GE.
etc
Leaving the Con Europhiles (surely no more than 15 people left in that group now) out in the cold.0 -
It's the AND which is key. The EU are never going to let us stay without exacting a price, most likely the rebate. I think that would undermine support for Continuity Remain.MikeL said:
Except it will matter.RoyalBlue said:
That doesn't matter. Notwithstanding the unbounded narcissism and self-obsession of our members of Parliament, as long as we're in the EU Westminster in a subordinate legislature. They can pass what they want; it doesn't affect the workings of Article 50.MikeL said:
Whatever the legalities may appear, it would become practically impossible.not_on_fire said:
The commons can’t stop us leaving without a deal.MikeL said:
Which surely will not happen because it won't get through the Commons.HYUFD said:
If they do they may have enough votes to put Mogg in the final 2 to the members to succeed May which means PM Rees Mogg and ultra hard BrexitTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
eg The EU Withdrawal Bill would get amended.
Bottom line is this: If 75% of MPs AND the EU don't want something to happen, it won't happen.
A way will be found, whatever the precise admin.
eg1. EU extend A50 deadline.
eg2. Con Europhiles pull the plug and we have a GE.
etc
Con Europhiles won't force an election. No way.0 -
You may be right - I simply don't know.Mortimer said:
In that scenario I wouldn't be surprised if the people gave the 'National Tories' (i.e. those not wanting to betray Brexit) a majority.MikeL said:
Except it will matter.RoyalBlue said:
That doesn't matter. Notwithstanding the unbounded narcissism and self-obsession of our members of Parliament, as long as we're in the EU Westminster in a subordinate legislature. They can pass what they want; it doesn't affect the workings of Article 50.MikeL said:
Whatever the legalities may appear, it would become practically impossible.not_on_fire said:
The commons can’t stop us leaving without a deal.MikeL said:
Which surely will not happen because it won't get through the Commons.HYUFD said:
If they do they may have enough votes to put Mogg in the final 2 to the members to succeed May which means PM Rees Mogg and ultra hard BrexitTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
eg The EU Withdrawal Bill would get amended.
Bottom line is this: If 75% of MPs AND the EU don't want something to happen, it won't happen.
A way will be found, whatever the precise admin.
eg1. EU extend A50 deadline.
eg2. Con Europhiles pull the plug and we have a GE.
etc
Leaving the Con Europhiles (surely no more than 15 people left in that group now) out in the cold.
The one thing I do know is that if Ress-Mogg becomes PM in Spring 2018 and says "No deal with EU, hard Brexit, we're going straight ahead on that basis, don't care what anyone thinks, A50 is binding" then he won't get to 29 March 2019 without being stopped - somehow.
But I agree - if he gets stopped and calls a GE he might win - who knows.0 -
The only way he could be stopped is if he's forced out of Number 10. The only way to do that is for the Europhiles to put Corbyn into Downing Street.MikeL said:
You may be right - I simply don't know.Mortimer said:
In that scenario I wouldn't be surprised if the people gave the 'National Tories' (i.e. those not wanting to betray Brexit) a majority.MikeL said:
Except it will matter.RoyalBlue said:
That doesn't matter. Notwithstanding the unbounded narcissism and self-obsession of our members of Parliament, as long as we're in the EU Westminster in a subordinate legislature. They can pass what they want; it doesn't affect the workings of Article 50.MikeL said:
Whatever the legalities may appear, it would become practically impossible.not_on_fire said:
The commons can’t stop us leaving without a deal.MikeL said:
Which surely will not happen because it won't get through the Commons.HYUFD said:
If they do they may have enough votes to put Mogg in the final 2 to the members to succeed May which means PM Rees Mogg and ultra hard BrexitTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
eg The EU Withdrawal Bill would get amended.
Bottom line is this: If 75% of MPs AND the EU don't want something to happen, it won't happen.
A way will be found, whatever the precise admin.
eg1. EU extend A50 deadline.
eg2. Con Europhiles pull the plug and we have a GE.
etc
Leaving the Con Europhiles (surely no more than 15 people left in that group now) out in the cold.
The one thing I do know is that if Ress-Mogg becomes PM in Spring 2018 and says "No deal with EU, hard Brexit, we're going straight ahead on that basis, don't care what anyone thinks, A50 is binding" then he won't get to 29 March 2019 without being stopped - somehow.
But I agree - if he gets stopped and calls a GE he might win - who knows.
I just can't see that happening.0 -
I hope the government falls. Corbyn's Labour could deliver a better Brexit than this lot.0
-
The Doomsday scenario for Brexiteers would be if, in desperation, they tried to load the dice on a second referendum by making the Remain option conditional on joining the Euro, and still lost.RoyalBlue said:
It's the AND which is key. The EU are never going to let us stay without exacting a price, most likely the rebate. I think that would undermine support for Continuity Remain.MikeL said:
Except it will matter.RoyalBlue said:
That doesn't matter. Notwithstanding the unbounded narcissism and self-obsession of our members of Parliament, as long as we're in the EU Westminster in a subordinate legislature. They can pass what they want; it doesn't affect the workings of Article 50.MikeL said:
Whatever the legalities may appear, it would become practically impossible.not_on_fire said:
The commons can’t stop us leaving without a deal.MikeL said:
Which surely will not happen because it won't get through the Commons.HYUFD said:
If they do they may have enough votes to put Mogg in the final 2 to the members to succeed May which means PM Rees Mogg and ultra hard BrexitTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
eg The EU Withdrawal Bill would get amended.
Bottom line is this: If 75% of MPs AND the EU don't want something to happen, it won't happen.
A way will be found, whatever the precise admin.
eg1. EU extend A50 deadline.
eg2. Con Europhiles pull the plug and we have a GE.
etc
Con Europhiles won't force an election. No way.0 -
Which is why Hammond fits now, and could sort soft Brexit. He is value IMO.Jonathan said:
It would have to be someone not seen as long term threat to main contenders.Mortimer said:
There are only three who could do it, feasibly:Big_G_NorthWales said:
No ideaJonathan said:So who will the cabinet appoint as PM if May walks?
Hammond
Hunt
Gove
Green would have fitted the bill.
Well, it was last GE, but as they did not get elected as government, they are free to change policy.Richard_Tyndall said:
Which was a commitment from Labour.surbiton said:
If we leave the European Union.HYUFD said:
So no commitment to permanent membership of the single market and a promise to end free movement thensurbiton said:Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit0 -
Nicky Morgan on IDS:
https://twitter.com/NickyMorgan01/status/9381293629347962890 -
It was the rump Blairrite wing trying to score points over the leadership. It was so blatantly obvious that by going through the nae lobby, just showed contempt for the CCP.PClipp said:
Wasn`t that just some of the Labour leadership?Mortimer said:
To be clear, the Labour leadership joined the Tories in the No lobby for an amendment to keep the UK in the CU last week: http://www.itv.com/news/2017-11-21/john-mcdonnell-customs-union-amendment/PClipp said:
Ever since Corbyn took over, Labour have been very careful to commit themselves to nothing, at the same time as trying to suggest the compete opposite - on every issue. All commentators can pontificate extensively on the subject of the policies of the next Labour government, knowing full well that there will be evidence somewhere to support his assertions. It is all a bit of a waste of time, as is Labour.Richard_Tyndall said:
Grasping at straws there.surbiton said:Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit
From the manifesto
"Labour will work with global trading partners to develop ‘best-in-class’ free trade and investment agreements that remove trade barriers and promote skilled jobs and high standards." - Not possible inside the Customs Union.
"Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union. Britain’s immigration system will change" - Not possible inside the Single Market
"Labour will develop and implement fair immigration rules." - Not possible inside the Single Market.
"We will rejoin the Government Procurement Agreement" - Not possible inside the Single Market or the Customs Union
And for that matter, some of the Tories?
Nobody knows what either of these two parties stand for nowadays.0 -
The wrong result being that someone heaved Clark out of that Ferrari cockpit instead of leaving him there.williamglenn said:0 -
Yes indeed folks, IDS, an intellectual titan amongst politicians of the last hundred years.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
This is all good sport but the spin line that the ex-coppers are illegally leaking evidence surely begs the question of whether there was any evidence to leak.JonnyJimmy said:
He's pursuing a decade old vendetta and calling it public interest. He, and his evidence stealing chum, need some time inside to be educated on public interest.Yorkcity said:
Reading the guardian article ,he states he was not the source of the Sunday Times article.The journalist told him that his statement was from the leveson enquiry.Anyways you have already made your mind up ,as you keep using the word bent.JonnyJimmy said:
He'd probably be better off using his time working out how he's going to keep himself out of the big house. That he's continuing his decade old vendetta against Green with the threat of legal action makes him look even more bent.Yorkcity said:
I think the liar accusation .JonnyJimmy said:
"The allegations about the material and computer, now nine years old, are false, disreputable political smears from a discredited police officer acting in flagrant breach of his duty to keep the details of police investigations confidential, and amount to little more than an unscrupulous character assassination."Yorkcity said:
He's going to sue him for calling him 'discredited'?0 -
I think so too.chloe said:I hope the government falls. Corbyn's Labour could deliver a better Brexit than this lot.
Labour do not have the same swivel eyed loon mob to keep happy over Brexit, and Europeans know that. There would be fewer artificial red lines on courts and migration. The language used would be softer and less confrontational. It is very possible that Corbyn would get a better deal. Indeed he would be pushed to do worse.0 -
From a betting position I would be extremely unhappy with Mogg.HYUFD said:
If they do they may have enough votes to put Mogg in the final 2 to the members to succeed May which means PM Rees Mogg and ultra hard BrexitTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like IDS and the hard Brexiteers are going to force May out unless she does her bidding.
Tragic.
On the other hand, speaking personally, I would be extremely unhappy with Mogg.
0 -
I feel like I did backing Evan McMullin in Utah. A good value loser I feel.Peter_the_Punter said:
There was a good piece on this election recently on Nate Silver's site. It suggested nobody knows what's going to happen, because there haven't been many polls and the polling firms have little expertise in Alabama - for the fairly obvious reason that it's normally a GOP shoo-in.Alistair said:
Just got 5.7 on Betfair. Given the polling and America's brutal voting intention filter ( which would mute a Dem surge) that looks like value.Peter_the_Punter said:On December 12th the voters of Alabama have to make an unenviable choice between a paedophile and a Democrat. The latest poll from Gravis puts the Democrat 3 points ahead. Personally I think the kiddy-fiddler will win, but the 9/2 about the other guy looks too big.
DYOR, as ever.
It's probably worth backing the outsider of two on that basis alone.0 -
Like the WTO?TOPPING said:
Of course this brings us back to the pre-vote absurdity. Let's leave one supra-national organisation having sway over our laws and regulations, and...join another supra-national organisation having sway over our laws and regulations.TheScreamingEagles said:
That would, of course, be completely unacceptable. All these rules on what tariffs we can and can't impose on whichever countries we please, from an unelected and unelectable organisation...0 -
I follow him on twitter. Evan McMullin seems strangely sane for an American politician. They will never elect him.Alistair said:
I feel like I did backing Evan McMullin in Utah. A good value loser I feel.Peter_the_Punter said:
There was a good piece on this election recently on Nate Silver's site. It suggested nobody knows what's going to happen, because there haven't been many polls and the polling firms have little expertise in Alabama - for the fairly obvious reason that it's normally a GOP shoo-in.Alistair said:
Just got 5.7 on Betfair. Given the polling and America's brutal voting intention filter ( which would mute a Dem surge) that looks like value.Peter_the_Punter said:On December 12th the voters of Alabama have to make an unenviable choice between a paedophile and a Democrat. The latest poll from Gravis puts the Democrat 3 points ahead. Personally I think the kiddy-fiddler will win, but the 9/2 about the other guy looks too big.
DYOR, as ever.
It's probably worth backing the outsider of two on that basis alone.0 -
I disagree. Its better that the tories own the mess that they created. They should not be given the free pass of going in to opposition.foxinsoxuk said:
I think so too.chloe said:I hope the government falls. Corbyn's Labour could deliver a better Brexit than this lot.
Labour do not have the same swivel eyed loon mob to keep happy over Brexit, and Europeans know that. There would be fewer artificial red lines on courts and migration. The language used would be softer and less confrontational. It is very possible that Corbyn would get a better deal. Indeed he would be pushed to do worse.
Corbyn would be undermined constantly, every concession would be seen as a betrayal, the hell would just be eternal.
0 -
Just ignore the twat. What's the point of banning Plato if I still have to see tweets about Milo?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Brexit won but that does not mean it has to be Brexit for the hardline Brexiteers. There should be a Brexit that is satisfactory to the 48 per cent and will stand the test of time.foxinsoxuk said:
I think so too.chloe said:I hope the government falls. Corbyn's Labour could deliver a better Brexit than this lot.
Labour do not have the same swivel eyed loon mob to keep happy over Brexit, and Europeans know that. There would be fewer artificial red lines on courts and migration. The language used would be softer and less confrontational. It is very possible that Corbyn would get a better deal. Indeed he would be pushed to do worse.0 -
Plato has been retweeting Trump supporting accounts a lot less recently - perhaps the cheques from Russia have stoppedAlistair said:
Just ignore the twat. What's the point of banning Plato if I still have to see tweets about Milo?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
If we, as a country, decide to vote Labour at the next election, which version of Labour will come into power and take decisions in our name?OchEye said:
It was the rump Blairrite wing trying to score points over the leadership. It was so blatantly obvious that by going through the nae lobby, just showed contempt for the CCP.PClipp said:
Wasn`t that just some of the Labour leadership?Mortimer said:
To be clear, the Labour leadership joined the Tories in the No lobby for an amendment to keep the UK in the CU last week: http://www.itv.com/news/2017-11-21/john-mcdonnell-customs-union-amendment/PClipp said:
Ever since Corbyn took over, Labour have been very careful to commit themselves to nothing, at the same time as trying to suggest the compete opposite - on every issue. All commentators can pontificate extensively on the subject of the policies of the next Labour government, knowing full well that there will be evidence somewhere to support his assertions. It is all a bit of a waste of time, as is Labour.Richard_Tyndall said:
Grasping at straws there.surbiton said:Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit
From the manifesto
"Labour will work with global trading partners to develop ‘best-in-class’ free trade and investment agreements that remove trade barriers and promote skilled jobs and high standards." - Not possible inside the Customs Union.
"Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union. Britain’s immigration system will change" - Not possible inside the Single Market
"Labour will develop and implement fair immigration rules." - Not possible inside the Single Market.
"We will rejoin the Government Procurement Agreement" - Not possible inside the Single Market or the Customs Union
And for that matter, some of the Tories?
Nobody knows what either of these two parties stand for nowadays.0 -
The crazy-ape-bonkers version. The thing of PB Tory nightmares!PClipp said:
If we, as a country, decide to vote Labour at the next election, which version of Labour will come into power and take decisions in our name?OchEye said:
It was the rump Blairrite wing trying to score points over the leadership. It was so blatantly obvious that by going through the nae lobby, just showed contempt for the CCP.PClipp said:
Wasn`t that just some of the Labour leadership?Mortimer said:
To be clear, the Labour leadership joined the Tories in the No lobby for an amendment to keep the UK in the CU last week: http://www.itv.com/news/2017-11-21/john-mcdonnell-customs-union-amendment/PClipp said:
Ever since Corbyn took over, Labour have been very careful to commit themselves to nothing, at the same time as trying to suggest the compete opposite - on every issue. All commentators can pontificate extensively on the subject of the policies of the next Labour government, knowing full well that there will be evidence somewhere to support his assertions. It is all a bit of a waste of time, as is Labour.Richard_Tyndall said:
Grasping at straws there.surbiton said:Labour is usually described as having ruled out membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union in its 2017 election manifesto (though it has since supported remaining in both for a two-year transition period). In reality, it did no such thing. The party promised a "strong emphasis" on retaining "the benefits" of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and stated that "freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union". This was an ambiguous position designed to satisfy Remain and Leave voters and unite the Parliamentary Labour Party - and it worked rather well.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/12/labour-keeping-all-brexit-options-open-including-no-brexit
From the manifesto
"Labour will work with global trading partners to develop ‘best-in-class’ free trade and investment agreements that remove trade barriers and promote skilled jobs and high standards." - Not possible inside the Customs Union.
"Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union. Britain’s immigration system will change" - Not possible inside the Single Market
"Labour will develop and implement fair immigration rules." - Not possible inside the Single Market.
"We will rejoin the Government Procurement Agreement" - Not possible inside the Single Market or the Customs Union
And for that matter, some of the Tories?
Nobody knows what either of these two parties stand for nowadays.0 -
Any markets on this referendum:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-41930860
I expect a vote in support of a Yorkshire wide deal and a very low tunrout.0 -
At some point in the Brexit process, perhaps even now, Labour strategy has to be to that an immediate change of government would be unwise. It may be that the trajectory is poor now, but, if that's the case, then its sort of predictably poor. A change of government might open paths of really quite bad outcomes.
Their golden time to aim at, for them, is immediately post deal. They can pick and choose what they really think is bad, and have no worries at all if something that they quietly thought was good finishes up as bad.
Rees-Mogg is the obvious next leader choice for the Tories. He, I think, (just my view) represents a sort of patrician conservatism that has long gone out of fashion. That's a good thing in that political views are so scrambled at the moment that a little bit of stiffening wouldn't go amiss. Once normal service resumes then perhaps such a strongly opinionated leader will be less attractive.0 -
One of them stole it. And it was the only piece of evidence that he stole in his whole career. And his mate with a grudge didn't know that he'd stolen it.DecrepitJohnL said:
This is all good sport but the spin line that the ex-coppers are illegally leaking evidence surely begs the question of whether there was any evidence to leak.JonnyJimmy said:
He's pursuing a decade old vendetta and calling it public interest. He, and his evidence stealing chum, need some time inside to be educated on public interest.Yorkcity said:
Reading the guardian article ,he states he was not the source of the Sunday Times article.The journalist told him that his statement was from the leveson enquiry.Anyways you have already made your mind up ,as you keep using the word bent.JonnyJimmy said:
He'd probably be better off using his time working out how he's going to keep himself out of the big house. That he's continuing his decade old vendetta against Green with the threat of legal action makes him look even more bent.Yorkcity said:
I think the liar accusation .JonnyJimmy said:
"The allegations about the material and computer, now nine years old, are false, disreputable political smears from a discredited police officer acting in flagrant breach of his duty to keep the details of police investigations confidential, and amount to little more than an unscrupulous character assassination."Yorkcity said:
He's going to sue him for calling him 'discredited'?
I think fabrication is more likely than that crock of bottom waste.0 -
Certainly pension fund statements are paper values and can go up or down but they do give an idea of what future wealth you may have at your disposal and being able to draw from your pension from 55 onwards does give possibilities for millions to take this increase in wealth.Richard_Nabavi said:
True, but it's nominal wealth which (except for a small number of people who happen to harvest it at just the right time) might be just a blip on a price chart.another_richard said:' In 2016, the UK’s net worth rose by £803 billion from 2015, an increase of 8.9%. This is the largest recorded annual increase and the largest percentage increase since 2004. '
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/bulletins/nationalbalancesheet/2017estimates
As I've pointed out previously people with defined contribution pensions have been doing very well (even if they didn't know it):
' The value of the households sector increased by £750 billion in 2016, making it the greatest contributor to the change in UK net worth. Insurance, pension and standardised guarantee schemes rose by £348 billion, with £319 billion of this coming from pension schemes. Much of this increase is due to revaluations of insurance and pensions, which has a significant effect because of the size of the asset in the households sector. '
Rather puts the 'fishfingers to go up by 5p' stories into perspective.
Compare with the widespread obsession with house prices where the wealth involved is far more difficult to use.0 -
I am sure that that has been true. It might even still be true. But will it be true indefinitely? The twists and turns of the Brexit negotiations will be throwing up all sorts of issues. Most of them will tend to be drawbacks to leaving that nobody anticipated. Support for Brexit is almost certainly going to wane to some extent. It isn't as if Labour is that far away from the winning post any more. Shifting to outright opposition might well be just that extra oomph Labour needs to get back in.Richard_Tyndall said:
Going back on Brexit would be suicide for Corbyn.williamglenn said:
Just as there were many Tories in London who voted Corbyn because of Brexit, there were also many Labour and UKIP supporters who voted Corbyn because he promised he would not go back on Brexit.
In spite of the desertion of Europhile Tories, May still managed to end up as the largest party. If Corbyn decides to renege on Brexit there is only one direction his support is going in and that is down.0 -
There is never a good time or a bad time, there is only now! The best tactical option for the Tories is to call a GE, lose, and allow the LP to take the blame for the mess they've caused. They would have the time to sort out the leadership problem and blood a new shadow cabinet before the following GE. It would also allow them to rebuild the membership at a local level to provide the key workers and potential candidates for the future. The downside is that they are now so tainted by the incompetence of the present executive that no one will go near them for a couple of generations.Omnium said:At some point in the Brexit process, perhaps even now, Labour strategy has to be to that an immediate change of government would be unwise. It may be that the trajectory is poor now, but, if that's the case, then its sort of predictably poor. A change of government might open paths of really quite bad outcomes.
Their golden time to aim at, for them, is immediately post deal. They can pick and choose what they really think is bad, and have no worries at all if something that they quietly thought was good finishes up as bad.
Rees-Mogg is the obvious next leader choice for the Tories. He, I think, (just my view) represents a sort of patrician conservatism that has long gone out of fashion. That's a good thing in that political views are so scrambled at the moment that a little bit of stiffening wouldn't go amiss. Once normal service resumes then perhaps such a strongly opinionated leader will be less attractive.0 -
There's a certain irony that the two groups with most to lose from an Uncontrolled Brexit* are the Northern Irish and the Irish. And yet they are the two most (apparently) recalcitrant groups.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not so sure about that actually. But I am sure they are very good at convincing people that is the case.AlastairMeeks said:
Very different circumstances. The DUP have clear red lines and they are clearly very comfortable with their position here. They're the one player in this that really won't mind if everything falls over, so long as their red line is protected.Casino_Royale said:Worth remembering the DUP threw their toys out of the pram last time before agreeing a very belated S&C deal with the Tories.
A tungsten tipped Brexit and a new GE doesn't suit them either so I still expect a deal, but possibly not until over the weekend, or even early next week.
If a deal is eventually done this week, it won't be by the DUP caving in.
Unlike Theresa May.
This is a game of brinkmanship, where both groups are desperate for a deal, but both feel obliged to posture like crazy.
* Uncontrolled Brexit is my new name for an unplanned exit to WTO0 -
Car crash is more vivid.rcs1000 said:
There's a certain irony that the two groups with most to lose from an Uncontrolled Brexit* are the Northern Irish and the Irish. And yet they are the two most (apparently) recalcitrant groups.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not so sure about that actually. But I am sure they are very good at convincing people that is the case.AlastairMeeks said:
Very different circumstances. The DUP have clear red lines and they are clearly very comfortable with their position here. They're the one player in this that really won't mind if everything falls over, so long as their red line is protected.Casino_Royale said:Worth remembering the DUP threw their toys out of the pram last time before agreeing a very belated S&C deal with the Tories.
A tungsten tipped Brexit and a new GE doesn't suit them either so I still expect a deal, but possibly not until over the weekend, or even early next week.
If a deal is eventually done this week, it won't be by the DUP caving in.
Unlike Theresa May.
This is a game of brinkmanship, where both groups are desperate for a deal, but both feel obliged to posture like crazy.
* Uncontrolled Brexit is my new name for an unplanned exit to WTO0 -
Here's the other side of the Doug Jones story. Dem originations have withered over the years: ground game night be lacking.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/12/democrats-need-high-black-turnout-to-win-in-alabama-heres-why-that-may-not-happen/0 -
A gay libertarian friend, who used to read Breitbart, saw him at an event. I asked how he was, and whether it was interesting, and he described Milo as rambling, incoherent, and completely fucked up. This wasn't a late night event.Alistair said:
Just ignore the twat. What's the point of banning Plato if I still have to see tweets about Milo?TheScreamingEagles said:
So, whenever I see Milo's columns retweeted, I ask myself "was this the consequence of a 24 hour cocaine and alcohol bender?"
0 -
A fresh general election might produce a similar result.OchEye said:
There is never a good time or a bad time, there is only now! The best tactical option for the Tories is to call a GE, lose, and allow the LP to take the blame for the mess they've caused. They would have the time to sort out the leadership problem and blood a new shadow cabinet before the following GE. It would also allow them to rebuild the membership at a local level to provide the key workers and potential candidates for the future. The downside is that they are now so tainted by the incompetence of the present executive that no one will go near them for a couple of generations.Omnium said:At some point in the Brexit process, perhaps even now, Labour strategy has to be to that an immediate change of government would be unwise. It may be that the trajectory is poor now, but, if that's the case, then its sort of predictably poor. A change of government might open paths of really quite bad outcomes.
Their golden time to aim at, for them, is immediately post deal. They can pick and choose what they really think is bad, and have no worries at all if something that they quietly thought was good finishes up as bad.
Rees-Mogg is the obvious next leader choice for the Tories. He, I think, (just my view) represents a sort of patrician conservatism that has long gone out of fashion. That's a good thing in that political views are so scrambled at the moment that a little bit of stiffening wouldn't go amiss. Once normal service resumes then perhaps such a strongly opinionated leader will be less attractive.0
