politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Time’s person of the year
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Time’s person of the year
Time Magazine called to say that I was PROBABLY going to be named “Man (Person) of the Year,” like last year, but I would have to agree to an interview and a major photo shoot. I said probably is no good and took a pass. Thanks anyway!
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Emmanuel Macron
I wrote a comment and it disappeared.
Mueller and Putin would be the only ones I would be even vaguely interested in. Or Harvey Weinstein, and he is mysteriously missing.
Or perhaps a generic "The sexual predator" ?
A 170% overround & the book isn't fully made up, though. No bet for me.
Expected Macron to be even shorter, given he overturned the political establishment.
TSE and I discussed this a couple of months ago, the multiple Vanilla threads issue seems to be a bug when posting a new header on the Wordpress mobile app. Two or three Vanilla threads create within a few seconds and all but the last one get orphaned from the Wordpress post.
No-one outside the USA has really heard of Colin Kaepernick.
I am fascinated to see how leavers react.
Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?
Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”
Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
The key is going to be whether Labour support or oppose the necessary measures in Parliament - if they oppose it then a few rebels on the government side make the arithmetic very close indeed.
I’m not sure you could get 80-20 for England winning the World Cup.
Oh, Apple ....
"He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823
https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2017/11/28/apple-macs-have-gaping-root-hole-heres-a-superquick-way-to-check-and-fix-it/
Thankfully the default user settings don’t allow access to this exploit so 99% of users are unaffected. It also requires physical access to the machine and can be mitigated by enabling the root account and setting a password for it. Yet another company who released software with not enough QA done on it though, not good at all.
There was a similar (although simpler) bug in Unix in the 1970s, where accounts with passwords could be entered just by pressing ...
After all, according to HMRC some people pay their income tax on Christmas Day.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/28/i-cant-eat-or-sleep-the-grandmother-threatened-with-deportation-after-50-years-in-britain
It's being done in your name, people.
Wake up.
Had one of those ‘we can stop nuisance calls for a fee’ merchants yesterday. 'We understand you’re getting a lot of nuisance calls’ said the caller. Yes, I replied; I’ve got one now. And he hung up very rudely! Anyway, his number’s blocked now!
There will probably be a fix within 48 hours.
If the UK had an agreement that it would be linked, they would be busy leaking it. The entire basis of the EUs negotiation has been to separate the issues so that we are fully committed to the Brexit bill regardless of the outcome.
With the exception of a small number of political obsessives, most will take a fortnight off from life to enjoy time with family and friends.
The home secretary, David Blunkett, acted unlawfully in deporting an Afghan refugee family to Germany after they sought sanctuary in a British mosque, a high court judge ruled today.
Farid Ahmadi, 33, his wife Fariba, 25, and their two young children, aged five and three, were last month flown back to Germany, where they had first claimed asylum. They travelled on a specially chartered military jet at a cost to the taxpayer of an estimated £30,000.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk/2002/sep/11/immigration.immigrationandpublicservices
Should be fun.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn
The annual deficit is 1% of that.
So, in theory, a simple 1% annual tax on the value of all homes would eliminate the deficit. A 25% one-off charge on all homeowners would pay off the entire national debt.
That doesn't even make sense.
I tend to give people with iPhones a pass, but when I see anyone with an Apple Watch I immediately know they're style over substance.
(runs for cover).
Can’t really see why anyone would object. Unless you are a moron. And a Brexiter.
Edit: 16/1 at Ladbrokes (as is TSE's tip).
I would fancy Elon Musk as a possibility, but he isn't on the list. Electric cars, space rockets and destructive technologies are great narratives.
Kim Jongun is also possible but the odds aren't great.
Edit DecrepitJohn has the same idea as me on Elon Musk and found odds of 16/1. Decent.
The EU cannot, by law, include an FTA in the article 50 treaty. It will have to be agreed and ratified afterwards. They can include a 'heads of agreement' but it cannot bind the EU because the EU do not have the legal power to enter into an FTA in this way. Barnier has been clear about this.
The reason for all of this charade is that the EU have demanded that payment of the Brexit Bill has to be unconditional. The UK will agree to pay it in the article 50 treaty and that is the end of the story. The EU will not, on the other hand, be bound to deliver the FTA. If the FTA was not ratified, the UK would have no grounds for refusing to pay the Brexit bill UNLESS it said so in the treaty. It will not - this link has been refused by the EU and the UK appears to have capitulated.
Once the treaty is signed, the EU can spend the next five years backtracking and picking holes in the FTA and there is nothing that the UK can do about it.
Can we walk away before the article 50 treaty is signed? In theory yes, but in practice the EU plan will be to play for time and then at the cliff edge force us to accept a crap non-binding FTA heads of agreement because the alternative is hard Brexit with no deal and no time to prepare.
It was ESSENTIAL that the UK made the EU compromise on the linkage as it was the only leverage that we had. We have been sold out. We would be much better walking away now than taking this deal.
Mr. 43, I'm not betting on this market but agree on Xi/Kim.
But it appears that she says she arrive before the immigration rules but can't provide (or hasn't to date been able to provide) documentary evidence that she arrived in 68, just that she was in a children's home in the 70s.
Bureaucracies being what they are they need to be consistent (otherwise it's unfair to people who don't have access to the Guardian). So if she provides the evidence and she can stay. The doesn't and she is - by definition - deemed an illegal immigrant.
I'm sure that the Hone Iffice could have been more sympathetic as to how they applied the rules, but their job is to apply the rules.
No brainer, Apple every time.
But perhaps the Honourable Gentlement knows the answer.
Where are those Brexit Impact Assessments?
Q2: After the PM's humiliating acceptance of a 50bn Brexit bill, has she fled to Jordan? Isn't she a picture of embarassment?
I ask the Deputy Prime Minister since he is the expert on embarassing pictures...
Others will do better I am sure
Some of us quite like the walled garden, thank you very much.
Life's too short to be forever 'finding ways around' or fighting with your computer operating system.....
If it were Corbyn he’d lead on public sector pensions or something equally obscure.
“A MAN who, beyond the age of 36, finds himself on a Windows PC can count himself a failure.”
If you like configuring stuff, Windows all the way. But you need to get that out of your system eventually.