politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With speculation that Michael Flynn is cooperating with Robert
Comments
-
Negotiation is not only something that takes place across a table.Richard_Nabavi said:
Actually, 'hard Brexit' and 'soft Brexit' are both stupid phrases. We are leaving the EU. The EU insists that we leave the Single Market as part of that, unless we buy straight back in to nearly all the things that prompted people to vote to leave, which is clearly a non-starter. Personally I think there might have been a case for applying for a customs-union deal - but, there again, whose fault is it that zero negotiations on the future relationship are so far taking place? Hint: It's not the UK's fault.FF43 said:Whoa! The goalposts have shifted in the Brexiteers' (and we're all Brexiteers now) echo chamber on what "Soft Brexit" means so what you mean by that term is different from how the Irish understand it. The Irish definitions are the useful ones. "Soft Brexit" means Single Market and Customs Union or as near as dammit. "Hard Brexit" is FTA. Those two are deals. And then there is No Deal. Also the UK is being disingenuous with their claims that Hard Brexit, which they say is a Soft Brexit, can have a soft border identical to (genuinely) Soft Brexit or EU membership. We're going to end up in an even bigger mess if we are not clear about those distinctions.
The EU has already been conducting a very sophisticated negotiation with the UK about the future relationship with the aim of removing any leverage to obtain special deals or concessions. After all, this whole saga, from Cameron's renegotation onwards has been purely about doing just that. The UK raised the stakes by announcing its intention to leave, but that is not the final word on the future status of the relationship.0 -
King Cole, they knew we were having a referendum, and the renegotiation went so well it was compared to Neville Chamberlain's piece of paper.0
-
The UK will ultimately end up with a FTA perhaps allowing NI to stay in the customs union as a way of resolving Irish border issues. Whether that is hard or soft Brexit depends on your point of view, really it is neither. Not soft Brexit ie the single market and customs union nor hard Brexit ie WTO terms only.FF43 said:
The Irish position is rational. The question is whether it's effective. The Irish want a Soft Brexit. Ideally across the UK, but failing that, in the island of Ireland. They claim to be prepared to reject a Hard Brexit deal. They are raising the stakes to force the UK to choose between no deal and Soft Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.
Why might the UK do that? Firstly because it is committed to a Soft Brexit in Northern Ireland, with no Irish Sea border. Some commentators reckon this position is incoherent and the UK will have to choose between Soft Brexit across the British Isles, Hard Brexit in Northern Ireland too and the Sea border control. If that's the case and it encourages a Soft Brexit across the British Isles, it's a maximum win for the Irish position. If it encourages a Soft Brexit in Northern Ireland with a sea border control it's still a win.
The UK has good reasons to go for a Soft Brexit, as well as some reasons for not doing so. Th decision is more balanced than the UK government currently makes it out to be.
Why might the UK choose no deal over Soft Brexit? Mainly because they think the Irish are bluffing. No deal is even worse for Ireland than Hard Brexit. The British reckon the EU and Ireland prefer a bad deal, ie Hard Brexit, over no deal.
A couple of observations from me. I reckon the UK will end up with Soft Brexit despite current rhetoric from the government. This is a personal take. Others' mileages may vary. The government have been so wrapped in negotiating with each other they haven't faced reality or up to now attempted real negotiations with the parties they supposed to be working with. When they do, they will get more realistic. In the meantime, it is maybe not a good idea to force the issue too hard.
My second observation is I don't think the Unionists have the numbers in Northern Ireland for a hard line. I am not even sure they all want one themselves. While Unionist parties still have slightly more support than Nationalist parties, non-aligned parties, ie Alliance and Greens, now make up more than the difference. These parties are in favour of pan-Ireland integration0 -
I think the UK government needs to be more explicit that it supports the continuation of the Common Travel Area.Richard_Nabavi said:
The Irish border should be a lot easier, given that it is a fairly small island and there are no easy routes for large-scale commercial smuggling.rcs1000 said:You joke, but it's true. The biggest issue with crossing the Swiss border is usually the local police insisting you buy a Vignette. (Which, by the way, we should also add as a way of effectively getting foreigners to pay a portion of our road tax.)
Switzerland is a model for how the Irish border should be handled: no passport checks, electronic manifests, and just a couple of main arteries.
This should be a non-issue, especially since all sides agree on what we're trying to achieve. It is weird how it has become one.0 -
We're not screaming toddlers walking out. We are a country which has democratically decided (unwisely, in my view, but that's by the by) to exercise a right laid out in Article 50 of a treaty which 28 countries have ratified. Sure, it's a pain in the neck for our EU friends, but they should act in good faith all the same.OldKingCole said:We started it. None of our erstwhile EU partners want us to leave. In fact they would far rather we stayed. It’s us Brits who are the screaming toddlers walking out. So it’s up to us to put forward plans which are acceptable to the rest or continue to No Deal and cut off our noses.
0 -
I agree passport checks are a bit patchy - sometimes they do and sometimes they don't. But the infrastructure is there and traffic on the motorways has to stop if only briefly. It's a hard border.MaxPB said:
Customs checks, yes, but I walk through the German border at Lörrach all the time when I'm in Basel. No one ever stops me and I never have to queue up to get a stamp.anothernick said:
And they have a hard border with EU countries. Customs checks, border posts, the lot. This would not be acceptable to the Irish.rcs1000 said:
What about Switzerland? They somehow manage to not be in a customs union with the EU, yet be members of Schengen.MJW said:But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.
The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.
Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.0 -
We?Richard_Nabavi said:We seem to have gone from the position where the Brexiteers were irrational, before the referendum, to a position now where the EU27 and especially the Irish, most of the UK commentariat, the LibDems, and half of Labour are irrational. It is a most bizarre spectacle.
0 -
Unless the Democrats take the House and Senate next November I cannot see Trump being impeached and not lasting a full term.0
-
Good faith and generosity are not the same thing.Richard_Nabavi said:
We're not screaming toddlers walking out. We are a country which has democratically decided (unwisely, in my view, but that's by the by) to exercise a right laid out in Article 50 of a treaty which 28 countries have ratified. Sure, it's a pain in the neck for our EU friends, but they should act in good faith all the same.OldKingCole said:We started it. None of our erstwhile EU partners want us to leave. In fact they would far rather we stayed. It’s us Brits who are the screaming toddlers walking out. So it’s up to us to put forward plans which are acceptable to the rest or continue to No Deal and cut off our noses.
0 -
I just don't think there is time to agree a soft Brexit, plus any hint of one would plunge the Cons into further disarray. Which leaves FTA or WTO. FTA also leaves no time, which means WTO. Now, of course there is no time to prepare for WTO but at least the rules are all there so we would be in breach for some time.FF43 said:
The Irish could go two ways on that analysis. They decide the British won't agree a Soft Brexit under any circumstances. Best cut their losses and go for a bad deal in preference to no deal. Or they decide the British won't agree, full stop. In which case they might as well go for No Deal and put down a marker for when wiser heads prevail on this side of the Irish Sea.TOPPING said:
Whilst undoubtedly true, by the time they stop arguing, look up and see the cliff edge, the easiest response will be "no deal, f*ck it". Even at this late stage the idea of them hammering out a considered, sensible EEA- even FTA-type arrangement beggars belief. If they feel pushed into a corner, that they are unable to ask for an A50 extension, or a transition period, for one reason or another, then they will simply plump to sail off the cliff, Thelma & Louise style.FF43 said:
A couple of observations from me. I reckon the UK will end up with Soft Brexit despite current rhetoric from the government. This is a personal take. Others' mileages may vary. The government have been so wrapped in negotiating with each other they haven't faced reality or up to now attempted real negotiations with the parties they supposed to be working with. When they do, they will get more realistic. In the meantime, it is maybe not a good idea to force the issue too hard.Richard_Nabavi said:Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.
Unless they ask for and get a transition or A50 extension in the next three months (because they still have to decide the terms of trade and businesses have to understand them and then act upon them), then no deal it is.
As for Ireland, under WTO then there would have to be some kind of special economic zone negotiation which might work for NI and the face of Cons politicians. It might energise investment in the Province which everyone should agree is desired, while not formally stating we are one country two systems.0 -
On the subject of borders, https://www.citylab.com/equity/2012/02/most-complicated-border-town-world/1267/0
-
The biggest issue is likely to be people in transits moving lower tax spirits across the border.Richard_Nabavi said:
The Irish border should be a lot easier, given that it is a fairly small island and there are no easy routes for large-scale commercial smuggling.rcs1000 said:You joke, but it's true. The biggest issue with crossing the Swiss border is usually the local police insisting you buy a Vignette. (Which, by the way, we should also add as a way of effectively getting foreigners to pay a portion of our road tax.)
Switzerland is a model for how the Irish border should be handled: no passport checks, electronic manifests, and just a couple of main arteries.
This should be a non-issue, especially since all sides agree on what we're trying to achieve. It is weird how it has become one.0 -
Canada did a FTA in 7 years and we are already closer in relationship to the EU than they were.TOPPING said:
I just don't think there is time to agree a soft Brexit, plus any hint of one would plunge the Cons into further disarray. Which leaves FTA or WTO. FTA also leaves no time, which means WTO. Now, of course there is no time to prepare for WTO but at least the rules are all there so we would be in breach for some time.FF43 said:
The Irish could go two ways on that analysis. They decide the British won't agree a Soft Brexit under any circumstances. Best cut their losses and go for a bad deal in preference to no deal. Or they decide the British won't agree, full stop. In which case they might as well go for No Deal and put down a marker for when wiser heads prevail on this side of the Irish Sea.TOPPING said:
Whilst undoubtedly true, by the time they stop arguing, look up and see the cliff edge, the easiest response will be "no deal, f*ck it". Even at this late stage the idea of them hammering out a considered, sensible EEA- even FTA-type arrangement beggars belief. If they feel pushed into a corner, that they are unable to ask for an A50 extension, or a transition period, for one reason or another, then they will simply plump to sail off the cliff, Thelma & Louise style.FF43 said:
A couple of observations from me. I reckon the UK will end up with Soft Brexit despite current rhetoric from the government. This is a personal take. Others' mileages may vary. The government have been so wrapped in negotiating with each other they haven't faced reality or up to now attempted real negotiations with the parties they supposed to be working with. When they do, they will get more realistic. In the meantime, it is maybe not a good idea to force the issue too hard.Richard_Nabavi said:Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.
Unless they ask for and get a transition or A50 extension in the next three months (because they still have to decide the terms of trade and businesses have to understand them and then act upon them), then no deal it is.
As for Ireland, under WTO then there would have to be some kind of special economic zone negotiation which might work for NI and the face of Cons politicians. It might energise investment in the Province which everyone should agree is desired, while not formally stating we are one country two systems.
A FTA could even be agreed by 2021 and the end of the transition period.0 -
Not patchy, they don't exist. The only reason that passport control is there is to stop suspected illegals and for people to claim back their VAT on the border when they come back to Switzerland.anothernick said:
I agree passport checks are a bit patchy - sometimes they do and sometimes they don't. But the infrastructure is there and traffic on the motorways has to stop if only briefly. It's a hard border.MaxPB said:
Customs checks, yes, but I walk through the German border at Lörrach all the time when I'm in Basel. No one ever stops me and I never have to queue up to get a stamp.anothernick said:
And they have a hard border with EU countries. Customs checks, border posts, the lot. This would not be acceptable to the Irish.rcs1000 said:
What about Switzerland? They somehow manage to not be in a customs union with the EU, yet be members of Schengen.MJW said:But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.
The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.
Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.0 -
Presumably with a transition process:geoffw said:
Perhaps they could take it even further and declare that they will switch traffic to the right if the Brits can't guarantee free movement at the border.FF43 said:
I explained why this isn't a self-flummoxing bamboozlement gambit in the ... snip ... sectiongeoffw said:
Ms May is facing intense pressure from both Belfast and Dublin to find a solution amid threats that Ireland will try to block EU trade talks if it is does not receive further assurances that there would be no "hard border".FF43 said:
The Irish position is rational. The question is whether it's effective. The Irish want a Soft Brexit. Ideally across the UK, but failing that, in the island of Ireland. They claim to be prepared to reject a Hard Brexit deal. They are raising the stakes to force the UK to choose between no deal and Soft Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.
... snip ...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-customs-union-stay-negotiations-theresa-may-trade-single-market-eu-latest-a8073466.html
The Irish threat is to ensure a hard border by vetoing a trade deal unless the Brits guarantee no hard border. I hereby name this negotiating manoeuvre the "Irish self-flummoxing bamboozlement gambit".
. The Irish want Soft Brexit while the UK says it doesn't. So they are rejecting a Hard Brexit deal and forcing the UK to choose between a Soft Brexit deal or No Deal. It's rational. Whether this will work or blow up in their faces is another matter.
Everyone with surnames beginning A-L switching in January and everyone else the following month?0 -
Switzerland is not in the single market but has bilateral agreements with the EU/EEA and does not have full freedom of movement as the Swiss give job preferences to local workers.FF43 said:
Schengen, Full Freedom of Movement and Single Market be thanked!MaxPB said:There's also a tram that goes through one of the other borders, it doesn't stop for a customs or passport check. The Swiss border with Germany is bloody brilliant. Can't fault it at all.
0 -
John McDonnell is banging on a lot at the moment about all the City fund managers he claims he’s meeting. When pushed by Andrew Neil this week to name a firm he had met, the Shadow Chancellor couldn’t. Now Bloomberg reports one asset manager is indeed letting the self-sworn radical “Marxist” into their office…
Executives at BlueBay Asset Management, which has $57 billion of assets under its management, are to meet McDonnell next week.
Just one awkward problem for McDonnell: he claims to disapprove of the entire way BlueBay structures its business. A quick look at the accounts shows the firm has a Luxembourg fund management company and a Jersey based Employee Benefit Trust.
https://order-order.com/2017/11/24/mcdonnells-favourite-asset-manager-operates-offshore/
Maybe he will turn up, demand they make a public apology for running their business in such a way and walk out?0 -
Which is identical to now (and fags of course).rcs1000 said:
The biggest issue is likely to be people in transits moving lower tax spirits across the border.Richard_Nabavi said:
The Irish border should be a lot easier, given that it is a fairly small island and there are no easy routes for large-scale commercial smuggling.rcs1000 said:You joke, but it's true. The biggest issue with crossing the Swiss border is usually the local police insisting you buy a Vignette. (Which, by the way, we should also add as a way of effectively getting foreigners to pay a portion of our road tax.)
Switzerland is a model for how the Irish border should be handled: no passport checks, electronic manifests, and just a couple of main arteries.
This should be a non-issue, especially since all sides agree on what we're trying to achieve. It is weird how it has become one.
The other point of course is that even if you do have physical inspections of consignments, you don't have to do them at the border.0 -
Quite frankly they seem to be acting in good faith. We on the other hand seem to be operating the traditional Irish approach of not knowing what we want and being willing to fight for it.Richard_Nabavi said:
We're not screaming toddlers walking out. We are a country which has democratically decided (unwisely, in my view, but that's by the by) to exercise a right laid out in Article 50 of a treaty which 28 countries have ratified. Sure, it's a pain in the neck for our EU friends, but they should act in good faith all the same.OldKingCole said:We started it. None of our erstwhile EU partners want us to leave. In fact they would far rather we stayed. It’s us Brits who are the screaming toddlers walking out. So it’s up to us to put forward plans which are acceptable to the rest or continue to No Deal and cut off our noses.
0 -
It's hard for us to lecture the EU about good faith when the Foreign Secretary tells them they can whistle for money they think is legitimately owed and the Prime Minister accuses them of trying to interfere in the UK's electoral process.Richard_Nabavi said:
We're not screaming toddlers walking out. We are a country which has democratically decided (unwisely, in my view, but that's by the by) to exercise a right laid out in Article 50 of a treaty which 28 countries have ratified. Sure, it's a pain in the neck for our EU friends, but they should act in good faith all the same.OldKingCole said:We started it. None of our erstwhile EU partners want us to leave. In fact they would far rather we stayed. It’s us Brits who are the screaming toddlers walking out. So it’s up to us to put forward plans which are acceptable to the rest or continue to No Deal and cut off our noses.
0 -
Pensioners and students are certainly more in the latter category, full time workers in the former.rcs1000 said:
It's almost like earning money want to keep taxes down, while those who live off others' handouts want taxes raised to pay for more spending.HYUFD said:Rare agreement between 18 to 24s and over 65s in that a plurality of both age groups support increasing taxes to pay for more spending in the latest yougov post Budget poll.
By contrast a plurality of 25 to 49 year olds and 50 to 64 year olds want to keep tax rates as they are.
Overall a majority or plurality support ever Budget measure announced with most support for more NHS spending and least support for extending the young persons' railcard to 26 to 30 year olds.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/11/24/publics-view-budget-5-charts/0 -
We don't really do this black friday lark in the UK do we...
https://twitter.com/Frankie_Mack/status/9339573281221222410 -
Ho ho, do you really think they honestly believe we legally owe them €60bn+?anothernick said:
It's hard for us to lecture the EU about good faith when the Foreign Secretary tells them they can whistle for money they think is legitimately owed and the Prime Minister accuses them of trying to interfere in the UK's electoral process.Richard_Nabavi said:
We're not screaming toddlers walking out. We are a country which has democratically decided (unwisely, in my view, but that's by the by) to exercise a right laid out in Article 50 of a treaty which 28 countries have ratified. Sure, it's a pain in the neck for our EU friends, but they should act in good faith all the same.OldKingCole said:We started it. None of our erstwhile EU partners want us to leave. In fact they would far rather we stayed. It’s us Brits who are the screaming toddlers walking out. So it’s up to us to put forward plans which are acceptable to the rest or continue to No Deal and cut off our noses.
0 -
We may have a closer relationship, but we would nevertheless be approaching negotiations from scratch. Otherwise both sides would find fault (they might say fine you're already there, let's keep the ECJ; we might say fine we're already there we don't need the ECJ).HYUFD said:
Canada did a FTA in 7 years and we are already closer in relationship to the EU than they were.TOPPING said:
I just don't think there is time to agree a soft Brexit, plus any hint of one would plunge the Cons into further disarray. Which leaves FTA or WTO. FTA also leaves no time, which means WTO. Now, of course there is no time to prepare for WTO but at least the rules are all there so we would be in breach for some time.FF43 said:
The Irish could go two ways on that analysis. They decide the British won't agree a Soft Brexit under any circumstances. Best cut their losses and go for a bad deal in preference to no deal. Or they decide the British won't agree, full stop. In which case they might as well go for No Deal and put down a marker for when wiser heads prevail on this side of the Irish Sea.TOPPING said:
Whilst undoubtedly true, by the time they stop arguing, look up and see the cliff edge, the easiest response will be "no deal, f*ck it". Even at this late stage the idea of them hammering out a considered, sensible EEA- even FTA-type arrangement beggars belief. If they feel pushed into a corner, that they are unable to ask for an A50 extension, or a transition period, for one reason or another, then they will simply plump to sail off the cliff, Thelma & Louise style.FF43 said:
A couple of observations from me.oo hard.Richard_Nabavi said:Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.
Unless they ask for and get a transition or A50 extension in the next three months (because they still have to decide the terms of trade and businesses have to understand them and then act upon them), then no deal it is.
As for Ireland, under WTO then there would have to be some kind of special economic zone negotiation which might work for NI and the face of Cons politicians. It might energise investment in the Province which everyone should agree is desired, while not formally stating we are one country two systems.
A FTA could even be agreed by 2021 and the end of the transition period.0 -
Anyhoo. Trump will serve out his term and will not be re-elected in 2020.
He may not stand in 2020. He may not be chosen to represent his party and he may lose the General Election. The second depends on his party's confidence in him achieving the third. In turn he will be less willing to stand again if he thinks he won't get through the Primary0 -
Put up inheritance tax and it's a tax on death.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, ah, but which taxes?
Everybody wants taxes on Someone Else. Put up VAT and people bleat (and Labour put up angry posters with things like VAT-exempt items such as food on them). Put up income tax and it'd be a tax on ordinary people. Put up National Insurance and it's a tax on jobs.0 -
It's really just Schengen that matters. The UK and Ireland have an equivalent. The issue is a new customs border between NI and RoI. I think it's a big problem, but again, Switzerland has solved that problem as well with electronic registration etc...FF43 said:
Schengen, Full Freedom of Movement and Single Market be thanked!MaxPB said:There's also a tram that goes through one of the other borders, it doesn't stop for a customs or passport check. The Swiss border with Germany is bloody brilliant. Can't fault it at all.
0 -
Black Friday is pointless in the UK, we have Boxing Day for Sales unlike the US.FrancisUrquhart said:We don't really do this black friday lark in the UK do we...
https://twitter.com/Frankie_Mack/status/933957328122122241
The reason the US has Black Friday is it is the day after Thanksgiving which we don't celebrate.0 -
Have you checked your inbox recently?HYUFD said:
Black Friday is pointless in the UK, we have Boxing Day for Sales unlike the US.FrancisUrquhart said:We don't really do this black friday lark in the UK do we...
https://twitter.com/Frankie_Mack/status/933957328122122241
The reason the US has Black Friday is it is the day after Thanksgiving which we don't celebrate.0 -
On current polls that means President Sanders will be greeting PM Corbyn at the White House by mid 2022.FF43 said:Anyhoo. Trump will serve out his term and will not be re-elected in 2020.
He may not stand in 2020. He may not be chosen to represent his party and he may lose the General Election. The second depends on his party's confidence in him achieving the third. In turn he will be less willing to stand again if he thinks he won't get through the Primary0 -
Yes but talks may well be underway by the New Year on a FTATOPPING said:
We may have a closer relationship, but we would nevertheless be approaching negotiations from scratch. Otherwise both sides would find fault (they might say fine you're already there, let's keep the ECJ; we might say fine we're already there we don't need the ECJ).HYUFD said:
Canada did a FTA in 7 years and we are already closer in relationship to the EU than they were.TOPPING said:
I just don't think there is time to agree a soft Brexit, plus any hint of one would plunge the Cons into further disarray. Which leaves FTA or WTO. FTA also leaves no time, which means WTO. Now, of course there is no time to prepare for WTO but at least the rules are all there so we would be in breach for some time.FF43 said:
The Irish could go two ways on that analysis. They decide the British won't agree a Soft Brexit under any circumstances. Best cut their losses and go for a bad deal in preference to no deal. Or they decide the British won't agree, full stop. In which case they might as well go for No Deal and put down a marker for when wiser heads prevail on this side of the Irish Sea.TOPPING said:
Whilst undoubtedly true, by the time they stop arguing, look up and see the cliff edge, the easiest response will be "no deal, f*ck it". Even at this late stage the idea of them hammering out a considered, sensible EEA- even FTA-type arrangement beggars belief. If they feel pushed into a corner, that they are unable to ask for an A50 extension, or a transition period, for one reason or another, then they will simply plump to sail off the cliff, Thelma & Louise style.FF43 said:
A couple of observations from me.oo hard.Richard_Nabavi said:Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.
Unless they ask for and get a transition or A50 extension in the next three months (because they still have to decide the terms of trade and businesses have to understand them and then act upon them), then no deal it is.
As for Ireland, under WTO then there would have to be some kind of special economic zone negotiation which might work for NI and the face of Cons politicians. It might energise investment in the Province which everyone should agree is desired, while not formally stating we are one country two systems.
A FTA could even be agreed by 2021 and the end of the transition period.0 -
Do you think it will take that long?rcs1000 said:
I hold by my view that in 25 years time, Dr Liam Fox will be regarded as the least able member of the British government in this period.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, to be fair, I'm sure lots of businesses are vindictively refusing to make more profit to annoy Liam Fox.
....0 -
Of course they believe that, they probably believe it should be more. This does not mean they are right or that we should necessarily pay but starting a negotiation by telling the other side to get stuffed is not a sensible tactic, especially if you are the weaker party and want the stronger one to make concessions to you in terms of a free trade deal etc etc.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ho ho, do you really think they honestly believe we legally owe them €60bn+?anothernick said:
It's hard for us to lecture the EU about good faith when the Foreign Secretary tells them they can whistle for money they think is legitimately owed and the Prime Minister accuses them of trying to interfere in the UK's electoral process.Richard_Nabavi said:
We're not screaming toddlers walking out. We are a country which has democratically decided (unwisely, in my view, but that's by the by) to exercise a right laid out in Article 50 of a treaty which 28 countries have ratified. Sure, it's a pain in the neck for our EU friends, but they should act in good faith all the same.OldKingCole said:We started it. None of our erstwhile EU partners want us to leave. In fact they would far rather we stayed. It’s us Brits who are the screaming toddlers walking out. So it’s up to us to put forward plans which are acceptable to the rest or continue to No Deal and cut off our noses.
0 -
Mr. Nick, thou art a shade credulous.
If we were a net beneficiary would they be clamouring to pay us?
We can agree, however, that Boris is an idiot and unfit to be Foreign Secretary.0 -
Not necessarily. The Republicans could choose another candidate that wins. Not to say Trump definitely WON'T be president in 2020, simply that the probability is stacked against him. The best bets I saw were that Trump would leave office in 2020 or later and,in combination, would not be elected in 2020. One of those bets is guaranteed to pay out and probably both IMO. Last time I looked the odds were decent.HYUFD said:
On current polls that means President Sanders will be greeting PM Corbyn at the White House by mid 2022.FF43 said:Anyhoo. Trump will serve out his term and will not be re-elected in 2020.
He may not stand in 2020. He may not be chosen to represent his party and he may lose the General Election. The second depends on his party's confidence in him achieving the third. In turn he will be less willing to stand again if he thinks he won't get through the Primary0 -
I know you put ‘current polls’ but there’s no way Bernie will be the Dem candidate in 2020.HYUFD said:
On current polls that means President Sanders will be greeting PM Corbyn at the White House by mid 2022.FF43 said:Anyhoo. Trump will serve out his term and will not be re-elected in 2020.
He may not stand in 2020. He may not be chosen to represent his party and he may lose the General Election. The second depends on his party's confidence in him achieving the third. In turn he will be less willing to stand again if he thinks he won't get through the Primary
Is there a market yet on serious possibilities?0 -
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/934098896418111488Charles said:
Do you think it will take that long?rcs1000 said:
I hold by my view that in 25 years time, Dr Liam Fox will be regarded as the least able member of the British government in this period.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, to be fair, I'm sure lots of businesses are vindictively refusing to make more profit to annoy Liam Fox.
....0 -
On current polls Trump beats opponents like Kasich in a contested GOP primary roughly 65% to 35%. Sanders leads Democratic primary polls and leads Trump in general election polls but clearly a long way to go.FF43 said:
Not necessarily. The Republicans could choose another candidate that wins. Not to say Trump definitely WON'T be president in 2020, simply that the probability is stacked against him. The best bets I saw were that Trump would leave office in 2020 or later and,in combination, would not be elected in 2020. One of those bets is guaranteed to pay out and probably both IMO. Last time I looked the odds were decent.HYUFD said:
On current polls that means President Sanders will be greeting PM Corbyn at the White House by mid 2022.FF43 said:Anyhoo. Trump will serve out his term and will not be re-elected in 2020.
He may not stand in 2020. He may not be chosen to represent his party and he may lose the General Election. The second depends on his party's confidence in him achieving the third. In turn he will be less willing to stand again if he thinks he won't get through the Primary0 -
Off topic: Clearly more room for cuts - bizarre this one ever got taken to court:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5113729/Teacher-cleared-abusing-position-sex-girl.html
Judge's direction spells out a very clear aspect of UK law.0 -
Misguided though they are, I do believe that most EU governments believe we have a moral obligation to pay for things we'd previously agreed to.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ho ho, do you really think they honestly believe we legally owe them €60bn+?anothernick said:
It's hard for us to lecture the EU about good faith when the Foreign Secretary tells them they can whistle for money they think is legitimately owed and the Prime Minister accuses them of trying to interfere in the UK's electoral process.Richard_Nabavi said:
We're not screaming toddlers walking out. We are a country which has democratically decided (unwisely, in my view, but that's by the by) to exercise a right laid out in Article 50 of a treaty which 28 countries have ratified. Sure, it's a pain in the neck for our EU friends, but they should act in good faith all the same.OldKingCole said:We started it. None of our erstwhile EU partners want us to leave. In fact they would far rather we stayed. It’s us Brits who are the screaming toddlers walking out. So it’s up to us to put forward plans which are acceptable to the rest or continue to No Deal and cut off our noses.
0 -
We were on holiday on the Swiss French border a few years back and went between the two with no problem at all. The big roads had customs points - I guess because they were the ones lorries used - but the smaller roads had absolutely nothing. We jumped back and forth to our hearts' content.MaxPB said:
Not patchy, they don't exist. The only reason that passport control is there is to stop suspected illegals and for people to claim back their VAT on the border when they come back to Switzerland.anothernick said:
I agree passport checks are a bit patchy - sometimes they do and sometimes they don't. But the infrastructure is there and traffic on the motorways has to stop if only briefly. It's a hard border.MaxPB said:
Customs checks, yes, but I walk through the German border at Lörrach all the time when I'm in Basel. No one ever stops me and I never have to queue up to get a stamp.anothernick said:
And they have a hard border with EU countries. Customs checks, border posts, the lot. This would not be acceptable to the Irish.rcs1000 said:
What about Switzerland? They somehow manage to not be in a customs union with the EU, yet be members of Schengen.MJW said:But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.
The UK has been from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.
Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.
0 -
If not Sanders it will likely be Warren. Biden is the only one anywhere near them in Democratic primary polls but their combined vote confortably beats his.OldKingCole said:
I know you put ‘current polls’ but there’s no way Bernie will be the Dem candidate in 2020.HYUFD said:
On current polls that means President Sanders will be greeting PM Corbyn at the White House by mid 2022.FF43 said:Anyhoo. Trump will serve out his term and will not be re-elected in 2020.
He may not stand in 2020. He may not be chosen to represent his party and he may lose the General Election. The second depends on his party's confidence in him achieving the third. In turn he will be less willing to stand again if he thinks he won't get through the Primary
Is there a market yet on serious possibilities?0 -
People believe things beneficial to them shocker.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Nick, thou art a shade credulous.
If we were a net beneficiary would they be clamouring to pay us?
We can agree, however, that Boris is an idiot and unfit to be Foreign Secretary.0 -
All getting a bit long in the tooth, surely. Someone younger seems more likely.HYUFD said:
If not Sanders it will likely be Warren. Biden is the only one anywhere near them in Democratic primary polls but their combined vote confortably beats his.OldKingCole said:
I know you put ‘current polls’ but there’s no way Bernie will be the Dem candidate in 2020.HYUFD said:
On current polls that means President Sanders will be greeting PM Corbyn at the White House by mid 2022.FF43 said:Anyhoo. Trump will serve out his term and will not be re-elected in 2020.
He may not stand in 2020. He may not be chosen to represent his party and he may lose the General Election. The second depends on his party's confidence in him achieving the third. In turn he will be less willing to stand again if he thinks he won't get through the Primary
Is there a market yet on serious possibilities?0 -
The UK wants the freedom to have regulatory divergence post-Brexit. That means a hard border with the EU - whether at the channel ports or on the island of Ireland. There is no getting around that. It's all very nicely explained here:rcs1000 said:
I think the UK government needs to be more explicit that it supports the continuation of the Common Travel Area.Richard_Nabavi said:
The Irish border should be a lot easier, given that it is a fairly small island and there are no easy routes for large-scale commercial smuggling.rcs1000 said:You joke, but it's true. The biggest issue with crossing the Swiss border is usually the local police insisting you buy a Vignette. (Which, by the way, we should also add as a way of effectively getting foreigners to pay a portion of our road tax.)
Switzerland is a model for how the Irish border should be handled: no passport checks, electronic manifests, and just a couple of main arteries.
This should be a non-issue, especially since all sides agree on what we're trying to achieve. It is weird how it has become one.
Far from being a gamble, the political calculation for Varadkar is simple: unless the British government changes its Brexit objectives there is going to be economic damage to his country, but he can avoid the political damage to his career if he carries on the way he's going. The ham-fisted briefing and the poor approach to winning hearts and minds outside of the United Kingdom by the British government has only made that calculation easier.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/11/time-running-out-theresa-may-address-irish-brexit-problem
0 -
That tram route is in Basel, which already has another tram route that passes through France and calls at a stop there before re-entering Switzerland, and is opening another tram route into France in less than 3 weeks. In Geneva, a cross-border tramway extension to Annemasse in France is under construction, with first stage opening in 2019.MaxPB said:There's also a tram that goes through one of the other borders, it doesn't stop for a customs or passport check. The Swiss border with Germany is bloody brilliant. Can't fault it at all.
They aren't feasible with a hard border. The GNR(I) was severely impacted by the Irish border post 1922 and destroyed by the Stormont government in 1957 as a consequence of it taking control of the GNR(I) lines in the 6 counties and promptly closing most of them, other than the main Dublin-Belfast line..0 -
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/switzerland/HYUFD said:
Switzerland is not in the single market but has bilateral agreements with the EU/EEA and does not have full freedom of movement as the Swiss give job preferences to local workers.FF43 said:
Schengen, Full Freedom of Movement and Single Market be thanked!MaxPB said:There's also a tram that goes through one of the other borders, it doesn't stop for a customs or passport check. The Swiss border with Germany is bloody brilliant. Can't fault it at all.
"As a consequence of the rejection of the EEA membership in 1992, Switzerland and the EU agreed on a package of seven sectoral agreements signed in 1999 (known in Switzerland as "Bilaterals I"). These include: free movement of persons, technical trade barriers, public procurement, agriculture and air and land transport. In addition, a scientific research agreement fully associated Switzerland into the EU's framework research programmes.
A further set of sectoral agreements was signed in 2004 (known as "Bilaterals II"), covering, inter alia, Switzerland's participation in Schengen and Dublin, and agreements on taxation of savings, processed agricultural products, statistics, combating fraud, participation in the EU Media Programme and the Environment Agency.
In 2010 an agreement was signed on Swiss participation in EU education, professional training and youth programmes.
In overall, more than 100 bilateral agreements currently exist between the EU and Switzerland.
The on-going implementation of these agreements obliges Switzerland to take over relevant EU legislation in the covered sectors.
These bilateral agreements between the EU and Switzerland are currently managed through approximately 20 joint committees.
As a consequence of its partial integration in the EU's single market, Switzerland pays a financial contribution to economic and social cohesion in the new EU Member States."
0 -
Major incident at Oxford Circus station suspected terrorist attack I am on my commute home and will have to take an alternative route0
-
Terrorist attack on Black Friday in London's busiest shopping area? Oh dear...0
-
The EU has substantial net liabilities, so clearly we owe them *something* on departure, but I think it's somewhat short of 60bn.rcs1000 said:
Misguided though they are, I do believe that most EU governments believe we have a moral obligation to pay for things we'd previously agreed to.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ho ho, do you really think they honestly believe we legally owe them €60bn+?anothernick said:
It's hard for us to lecture the EU about good faith when the Foreign Secretary tells them they can whistle for money they think is legitimately owed and the Prime Minister accuses them of trying to interfere in the UK's electoral process.Richard_Nabavi said:
We're not screaming toddlers walking out. We are a country which has democratically decided (unwisely, in my view, but that's by the by) to exercise a right laid out in Article 50 of a treaty which 28 countries have ratified. Sure, it's a pain in the neck for our EU friends, but they should act in good faith all the same.OldKingCole said:We started it. None of our erstwhile EU partners want us to leave. In fact they would far rather we stayed. It’s us Brits who are the screaming toddlers walking out. So it’s up to us to put forward plans which are acceptable to the rest or continue to No Deal and cut off our noses.
Much of the dispute over figures is down to the fact that a lot liabilities are provisional or contingent.0 -
So just the same as now then.rcs1000 said:
I hold by my view that in 25 years time, Dr Liam Fox will be regarded as the least able member of the British government in this period.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, to be fair, I'm sure lots of businesses are vindictively refusing to make more profit to annoy Liam Fox.
....0 -
Police, fire engines and ambulances shooting pastSlackbladder said:Terrorist attack on Black Friday in London's busiest shopping area? Oh dear...
0 -
0
-
Trump has three hurdles to go through before being reelected. I suppose his decision to stand is the easy one. Incumbent presidents usually sail through the primary and have a good chance of winning the general. There has only been one president with favourability ratings as bad as Trump and that was Gerald Ford. He came very close to losing the primary and then went on to lose the general.HYUFD said:
On current polls Trump beats opponents like Kasich in a contested GOP primary roughly 65% to 35%. Sanders leads Democratic primary polls and leads Trump in general election polls but clearly a long way to go.FF43 said:
Not necessarily. The Republicans could choose another candidate that wins. Not to say Trump definitely WON'T be president in 2020, simply that the probability is stacked against him. The best bets I saw were that Trump would leave office in 2020 or later and,in combination, would not be elected in 2020. One of those bets is guaranteed to pay out and probably both IMO. Last time I looked the odds were decent.HYUFD said:
On current polls that means President Sanders will be greeting PM Corbyn at the White House by mid 2022.FF43 said:Anyhoo. Trump will serve out his term and will not be re-elected in 2020.
He may not stand in 2020. He may not be chosen to represent his party and he may lose the General Election. The second depends on his party's confidence in him achieving the third. In turn he will be less willing to stand again if he thinks he won't get through the Primary0 -
Sitting Presidents who face tough nomination battles (Bush Snr vs Pat Robertson, Ford vs Reagan) don't tend to get re-elected.HYUFD said:
On current polls Trump beats opponents like Kasich in a contested GOP primary roughly 65% to 35%. Sanders leads Democratic primary polls and leads Trump in general election polls but clearly a long way to go.FF43 said:
Not necessarily. The Republicans could choose another candidate that wins. Not to say Trump definitely WON'T be president in 2020, simply that the probability is stacked against him. The best bets I saw were that Trump would leave office in 2020 or later and,in combination, would not be elected in 2020. One of those bets is guaranteed to pay out and probably both IMO. Last time I looked the odds were decent.HYUFD said:
On current polls that means President Sanders will be greeting PM Corbyn at the White House by mid 2022.FF43 said:Anyhoo. Trump will serve out his term and will not be re-elected in 2020.
He may not stand in 2020. He may not be chosen to represent his party and he may lose the General Election. The second depends on his party's confidence in him achieving the third. In turn he will be less willing to stand again if he thinks he won't get through the Primary0 -
Is that adjusted by social background? If not, it's a pretty misleading statistic. He may be overweight but he doesn't drink (does he smoke?).foxinsoxuk said:
FWIW:foxinsoxuk said:
There is the Grim Reaper too.AlastairMeeks said:On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.
A 71-year-old American male has about a 2.6% chance of dying in the next year. This figure steadily creeps up with each year, to 3.3% in Year 4. The total cumulative chance of succumbing to the actuarial reaper within four years is a far-from-negligible 11.3%
EDIT: I see the same point's been made.0 -
Oh shitty mcfuckty fuck fuck.0
-
Oxford Circus not sounding good at allFrancisUrquhart said:Oh shitty mcfuckty fuck fuck.
0 -
Which may help Sanders but at the moment I am just trying to get back to Epping while avoiding any possible terrorists in the process so will have to leave it there. I was literally walking to Oxford Circus tube when I posted a few minutes earlierrcs1000 said:
Sitting Presidents who face tough nomination battles (Bush Snr vs Pat Robertson, Ford vs Reagan) don't tend to get re-elected.HYUFD said:
On current polls Trump beats opponents like Kasich in a contested GOP primary roughly 65% to 35%. Sanders leads Democratic primary polls and leads Trump in general election polls but clearly a long way to go.FF43 said:
Not necessarily. The Republicans could choose another candidate that wins. Not to say Trump definitely WON'T be president in 2020, simply that the probability is stacked against him. The best bets I saw were that Trump would leave office in 2020 or later and,in combination, would not be elected in 2020. One of those bets is guaranteed to pay out and probably both IMO. Last time I looked the odds were decent.HYUFD said:
On current polls that means President Sanders will be greeting PM Corbyn at the White House by mid 2022.FF43 said:Anyhoo. Trump will serve out his term and will not be re-elected in 2020.
He may not stand in 2020. He may not be chosen to represent his party and he may lose the General Election. The second depends on his party's confidence in him achieving the third. In turn he will be less willing to stand again if he thinks he won't get through the Primary0 -
The man is an embarrassment and an arse.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/934098896418111488Charles said:
Do you think it will take that long?rcs1000 said:
I hold by my view that in 25 years time, Dr Liam Fox will be regarded as the least able member of the British government in this period.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, to be fair, I'm sure lots of businesses are vindictively refusing to make more profit to annoy Liam Fox.
....0 -
Claptrap. There are sensible ways to Brexit that could resolve some of the issues, but the government rejected them. Sorry, but you're exhibiting exactly the toddleresque behaviour I was referring to - believing that the entire EU should change their rules because of the fantasy promises made by Brexiteers in demanding everything work in our favour and be tailored to our needs. It's like a toddler who throws the bike they got for Christmas in the bin because It's the wrong colour demanding mummy by them another much more expensive one.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, we are leaving the EU. That is the fact on the ground. The ones who are acting like screaming toddlers are the Irish, who are blocking talks which would mitigate the damage.MJW said:.
If the Irish and the EU don't like the consequences of their own rules, then they either have to put up with it, change the rules, or at least open negotiations on how the future relationship can be made to work. The UK government can't stop them putting up a hard border if they want to, and it's certainly not going to halt Brexit because the Irish don't like it, still less because the Irish refuse to accept the UK's desire to get on with discussing how to make it work in everyone's interest.
We seem to have gone from the position where the Brexiteers were irrational, before the referendum, to a position now where the EU27 and especially the Irish, most of the UK commentariat, the LibDems, and half of Labour are irrational. It is a most bizarre spectacle.
It's in everyone's interest to have as close trade deal as possible, but that's why staying in the EU is a good idea, and why it developed in the first place. Once you leave that structure, or the looser ones that provide some of its benefits to nations in return to signing up to certain things (which we're refusing to do) then everything becomes problematic because all trade deals are. And guess what, they're usually much harder on the smaller nation because they need it more. It's why it takes an absolute age to negotiate FTAs that are far less comprehensive than EU rules. Worse, in Ireland those structures underpin its unique status - something Brexiteers were repeatedly warned about.
The fact on the ground is that Brexit as pursued like Davis, Fox, Boris or worse, the no dealers, is impossible without doing irreparable damage to Britain. That will harm everyone, and God knows the EU, Ireland and everyone hopes it doesn't happen. But they're not going to take away the keys from the drunk at the bar only to let them drive you home in your car.
They're being entirely rational, but It's pretty impossible to come out with a rational outcome when a project is as contradictory and damaging as Brexit. The rational outcomes are all ruled out, and you're left with bad ones.0 -
On topic, probably should note Abramson's THREAD on this...
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/9339037610508656650 -
-
If true so utterly dreadful - thoughts and prayers for all those involvedFrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Heh heh.foxinsoxuk said:
From a discussion here:AlastairMeeks said:
I'd want to know what those statistics were for those in the upper echelons of US society. I'd expect the rates would be far lower.foxinsoxuk said:
FWIW:foxinsoxuk said:
There is the Grim Reaper too.AlastairMeeks said:On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.
A 71-year-old American male has about a 2.6% chance of dying in the next year. This figure steadily creeps up with each year, to 3.3% in Year 4. The total cumulative chance of succumbing to the actuarial reaper within four years is a far-from-negligible 11.3%
https://verdict.justia.com/2017/02/02/youre-fired-four-ways-donald-trumps-presidency-might-not-last-four-years
Presidents do seem to have good longevity, and the Donald is a teetotal nonsmoker, but on the otherhand is obese and physically inactive. He doesnt seem to have medical issues, but on the other hand doesn't seem interested in seeing my colleagues prophylacticly.
They do say that the prostate indicates that God does have a sense of humor.
Then too the devil looks after his own.0 -
"Robert Peston: 'I’m not saying Britain is finished, but our current problems are not a blip'
ITV’s political editor believes a universal basic income for every Briton is inevitable and that without a radical reinvention of the welfare state, the country is hurtling towards economic chaos"
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/nov/24/robert-peston-interview-im-not-saying-britain-is-finished-but-our-current-problems-are-not-a-blip0 -
Is there anyone who listens to Peston's rantsAndyJS said:"Robert Peston: 'I’m not saying Britain is finished, but our current problems are not a blip'
ITV’s political editor believes a universal basic income for every Briton is inevitable and that without a radical reinvention of the welfare state, the country is hurtling towards economic chaos"
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/nov/24/robert-peston-interview-im-not-saying-britain-is-finished-but-our-current-problems-are-not-a-blip0 -
No I'm not. I'm saying that they can't expect us to give guarantees that an outcome won't arise because of rules which they made and don't want to change. That's entirely up to them, of course. If they don't want to change their rules (which I agree they won't want to do, and that it would be legally hard to do so), then as I explicitly said they have two other options: put up with it, or, as the UK government has been advocating for over a year, get on with discussions which would mitigate the problem.MJW said:Claptrap. There are sensible ways to Brexit that could resolve some of the issues, but the government rejected them. Sorry, but you're exhibiting exactly the toddleresque behaviour I was referring to - believing that the entire EU should change their rules because of the fantasy promises made by Brexiteers in demanding everything work in our favour and be tailored to our needs. It's like a toddler who throws the bike they got for Christmas in the bin because It's the wrong colour demanding mummy by them another much more expensive one.
Alternatively, they could no doubt come up with some fudge to their rules if they really wanted to. After all they are experts at this: they managed to come up with a solution to the infinitely more tricky problem of Northern Cyprus by declaring it to be simultaneously part of the EU and not part of the EU.
However, as things stand they refuse to discuss the on-going relationship. That is their fault, and not the UK's.
Well, I voted Remain, so, yes, I do think the net outcome is going to be unfavourable, to both sides. The irrational bit is the EU refusal to get on with discussions that would make it less unfavourable, for both sides.MJW said:They're being entirely rational, but It's pretty impossible to come out with a rational outcome when a project is as contradictory and damaging as Brexit. The rational outcomes are all ruled out, and you're left with bad ones.
0 -
CNN reporting no casualties0
-
Take care. Hope you get home soon. And more importantly safe and sound.HYUFD said:
Which may help Sanders but at the moment I am just trying to get back to Epping while avoiding any possible terrorists in the process so will have to leave it there. I was literally walking to Oxford Circus tube when I posted a few minutes earlierrcs1000 said:
Sitting Presidents who face tough nomination battles (Bush Snr vs Pat Robertson, Ford vs Reagan) don't tend to get re-elected.HYUFD said:
On current polls Trump beats opponents like Kasich in a contested GOP primary roughly 65% to 35%. Sanders leads Democratic primary polls and leads Trump in general election polls but clearly a long way to go.FF43 said:
Not necessarily. The Republicans could choose another candidate that wins. Not to say Trump definitely WON'T be president in 2020, simply that the probability is stacked against him. The best bets I saw were that Trump would leave office in 2020 or later and,in combination, would not be elected in 2020. One of those bets is guaranteed to pay out and probably both IMO. Last time I looked the odds were decent.HYUFD said:
On current polls that means President Sanders will be greeting PM Corbyn at the White House by mid 2022.FF43 said:Anyhoo. Trump will serve out his term and will not be re-elected in 2020.
He may not stand in 2020. He may not be chosen to represent his party and he may lose the General Election. The second depends on his party's confidence in him achieving the third. In turn he will be less willing to stand again if he thinks he won't get through the Primary0 -
-
I prefer ITV news at 10pm to BBC .I used to think Tom Bradby was very Tory.However he is really good and interesting with his comments as he leads the news.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is there anyone who listens to Peston's rantsAndyJS said:"Robert Peston: 'I’m not saying Britain is finished, but our current problems are not a blip'
ITV’s political editor believes a universal basic income for every Briton is inevitable and that without a radical reinvention of the welfare state, the country is hurtling towards economic chaos"
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/nov/24/robert-peston-interview-im-not-saying-britain-is-finished-but-our-current-problems-are-not-a-blip0 -
I believe there is term for this!Tissue_Price said:FFS.
twitter.com/matthewchampion/status/9341083890298961920 -
Mr. City, ha. Bradby's asides/commentary are bloody irksome. And the new political reporter, Brand, is daft as a brush.0
-
Indeed, how Brexit is expected to be a success with morons like that responsible for it i don't know. International trade was meant to be the great Brexit opportunity; Fox should be generating lots of good PR to to offset all the crap over the poor progress of the EU negotiations.DavidL said:
The man is an embarrassment and an arse.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/934098896418111488Charles said:
Do you think it will take that long?rcs1000 said:
I hold by my view that in 25 years time, Dr Liam Fox will be regarded as the least able member of the British government in this period.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, to be fair, I'm sure lots of businesses are vindictively refusing to make more profit to annoy Liam Fox.
....0 -
Massive fucking hypocrites
https://order-order.com/2017/11/24/labour-call-centre-staff-on-12-hours-a-week-get-30p-pay-rise/0 -
Mr. Urquhart, sacrifices must be made for the Revolution.0
-
.0
-
Pretty incredible, isn't it?FrancisUrquhart said:Massive fucking hypocrites
https://order-order.com/2017/11/24/labour-call-centre-staff-on-12-hours-a-week-get-30p-pay-rise/
It was Paul Staines's mob of £3'ers who elected Corbyn.0 -
Paris has had a more exotic emergency today:
https://twitter.com/peterallenparis/status/9341105031142973460 -
Morris my wife thinks Bradby is quite funny and less deferential than the beeb .To be fair he has made me chuckle of late .Morris_Dancer said:Mr. City, ha. Bradby's asides/commentary are bloody irksome. And the new political reporter, Brand, is daft as a brush.
0 -
Hasn’t that been debunked? He would have won regardless.Pong said:
Pretty incredible, isn't it?FrancisUrquhart said:Massive fucking hypocrites
https://order-order.com/2017/11/24/labour-call-centre-staff-on-12-hours-a-week-get-30p-pay-rise/
It was Paul Staines's mob of £3'ers who elected Corbyn.0 -
No tranquilliser dart?AlastairMeeks said:Paris has had a more exotic emergency today:
https://twitter.com/peterallenparis/status/9341105031142973460 -
I am not sure that is in such good taste when so many have been scared witless todayAlastairMeeks said:Paris has had a more exotic emergency today:
https://twitter.com/peterallenparis/status/9341105031142973460 -
Yup. Pongy news alert.RobD said:
Hasn’t that been debunked? He would have won regardless.Pong said:
Pretty incredible, isn't it?FrancisUrquhart said:Massive fucking hypocrites
https://order-order.com/2017/11/24/labour-call-centre-staff-on-12-hours-a-week-get-30p-pay-rise/
It was Paul Staines's mob of £3'ers who elected Corbyn.0 -
Could you give them another £3 to help them out again ?.FrancisUrquhart said:Massive fucking hypocrites
https://order-order.com/2017/11/24/labour-call-centre-staff-on-12-hours-a-week-get-30p-pay-rise/0 -
Maybe it was a story from that certified fake news outlet, The Canary.Mortimer said:
Yup. Pongy news alert.RobD said:
Hasn’t that been debunked? He would have won regardless.Pong said:
Pretty incredible, isn't it?FrancisUrquhart said:Massive fucking hypocrites
https://order-order.com/2017/11/24/labour-call-centre-staff-on-12-hours-a-week-get-30p-pay-rise/
It was Paul Staines's mob of £3'ers who elected Corbyn.0 -
1) It's a true story.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure that is in such good taste when so many have been scared witless todayAlastairMeeks said:Paris has had a more exotic emergency today:
https://twitter.com/peterallenparis/status/934110503114297346
2) Earlier this week you were telling us all how no one outside London cares about London job losses. It's nice to know that northerners don't actively wish us dead, mind.0 -
What do you mean another £3? I never been a member of any political party.Yorkcity said:
Could you give them another £3 to help them out again ?.FrancisUrquhart said:Massive fucking hypocrites
https://order-order.com/2017/11/24/labour-call-centre-staff-on-12-hours-a-week-get-30p-pay-rise/0 -
Do you think it's the job of a newsreader to make comments? I think they should just read out the news in an authoritative way.Yorkcity said:
I prefer ITV news at 10pm to BBC .I used to think Tom Bradby was very Tory.However he is really good and interesting with his comments as he leads the news.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is there anyone who listens to Peston's rantsAndyJS said:"Robert Peston: 'I’m not saying Britain is finished, but our current problems are not a blip'
ITV’s political editor believes a universal basic income for every Briton is inevitable and that without a radical reinvention of the welfare state, the country is hurtling towards economic chaos"
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/nov/24/robert-peston-interview-im-not-saying-britain-is-finished-but-our-current-problems-are-not-a-blip0 -
Distorting my words and making crass comments seem to be your style Mr Meeks - shame reallyAlastairMeeks said:
1) It's a true story.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure that is in such good taste when so many have been scared witless todayAlastairMeeks said:Paris has had a more exotic emergency today:
https://twitter.com/peterallenparis/status/934110503114297346
2) Earlier this week you were telling us all how no one outside London cares about London job losses. It's nice to know that northerners don't actively wish us dead, mind.0 -
Thanks, am at Leyton now having gone to Tottenham Court Road so should be OKdixiedean said:
Take care. Hope you get home soon. And more importantly safe and sound.HYUFD said:
Which may help Sanders but at the moment I am just trying to get back to Epping while avoiding any possible terrorists in the process so will have to leave it there. I was literally walking to Oxford Circus tube when I posted a few minutes earlierrcs1000 said:
Sitting Presidents who face tough nomination battles (Bush Snr vs Pat Robertson, Ford vs Reagan) don't tend to get re-elected.HYUFD said:
On current polls Trump beats opponents like Kasich in a contested GOP primary roughly 65% to 35%. Sanders leads Democratic primary polls and leads Trump in general election polls but clearly a long way to go.FF43 said:
Not necessarily. The Republicans could choose another candidate that wins. Not to say Trump definitely WON'T be president in 2020, simply that the probability is stacked against him. The best bets I saw were that Trump would leave office in 2020 or later and,in combination, would not be elected in 2020. One of those bets is guaranteed to pay out and probably both IMO. Last time I looked the odds were decent.HYUFD said:
On current polls that means President Sanders will be greeting PM Corbyn at the White House by mid 2022.FF43 said:Anyhoo. Trump will serve out his term and will not be re-elected in 2020.
He may not stand in 2020. He may not be chosen to represent his party and he may lose the General Election. The second depends on his party's confidence in him achieving the third. In turn he will be less willing to stand again if he thinks he won't get through the Primary
Luckily it looks like police have minimised any potential casualties and if there were terrorists they have now left but we await further details0 -
The international trade department is pointless until we have sorted out where we are with the EU27. No-one is going to sit down to talk seriously with us before the UK's access to EU markets and level of ongoing regulatory harmonisation with the EU are agreed.JonathanD said:
Indeed, how Brexit is expected to be a success with morons like that responsible for it i don't know. International trade was meant to be the great Brexit opportunity; Fox should be generating lots of good PR to to offset all the crap over the poor progress of the EU negotiations.DavidL said:
The man is an embarrassment and an arse.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/934098896418111488Charles said:
Do you think it will take that long?rcs1000 said:
I hold by my view that in 25 years time, Dr Liam Fox will be regarded as the least able member of the British government in this period.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, to be fair, I'm sure lots of businesses are vindictively refusing to make more profit to annoy Liam Fox.
....
0 -
As Tom Knox may be about to be resurrected Channel 5 at 10pm has a program about Gobekli Tepe where he was conceived.0
-
Here were your words. I'll let others judge if I distorted them:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Distorting my words and making crass comments seem to be your style Mr Meeks - shame reallyAlastairMeeks said:
1) It's a true story.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure that is in such good taste when so many have been scared witless todayAlastairMeeks said:Paris has had a more exotic emergency today:
https://twitter.com/peterallenparis/status/934110503114297346
2) Earlier this week you were telling us all how no one outside London cares about London job losses. It's nice to know that northerners don't actively wish us dead, mind.
"The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country."0 -
R4, police say no evidence of shots fired or anyone injured.
On the bright side, Tommy Robinson has shat it. Again.0 -
Neither have I, well... not since the PB Tories were classified as a proscribed organisation.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean another £3? I never been a member of any political party.Yorkcity said:
Could you give them another £3 to help them out again ?.FrancisUrquhart said:Massive fucking hypocrites
https://order-order.com/2017/11/24/labour-call-centre-staff-on-12-hours-a-week-get-30p-pay-rise/
0
