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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With speculation that Michael Flynn is cooperating with Robert Mueller punters think Trump won’t serve a full term
This has the potential to be so much fun. 'A Split From Trump Indicates That Flynn Is Moving to Cooperate With Mueller.' https://t.co/gIpUfeW6An
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https://pm1.narvii.com/6051/de57e04e8efcfb360b5c9bc685e5d4404da5adc4_hq.jpg
Good effort @Charles that looks a v worthwhile endeavour.
https://pm1.narvii.com/6051/de57e04e8efcfb360b5c9bc685e5d4404da5adc4_hq.jpg
Still MOE but marginally encouraging for Merkel.
Does anyone have any insight or betting tips?
Get your institution to invest...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/20/bill-clinton-facing-four-sexual-assault-lawsuits-fresh-allegations/
"It is not clear exactly when the assaults are alleged to have taken place but they date from after Mr Clinton left the White House in 2001, according to the sources."
Why might the UK do that? Firstly because it is committed to a Soft Brexit in Northern Ireland, with no Irish Sea border. Some commentators reckon this position is incoherent and the UK will have to choose between Soft Brexit across the British Isles, Hard Brexit in Northern Ireland too and the Sea border control. If that's the case and it encourages a Soft Brexit across the British Isles, it's a maximum win for the Irish position. If it encourages a Soft Brexit in Northern Ireland with a sea border control it's still a win.
The UK has good reasons to go for a Soft Brexit, as well as some reasons for not doing so. Th decision is more balanced than the UK government currently makes it out to be.
Why might the UK choose no deal over Soft Brexit? Mainly because they think the Irish are bluffing. No deal is even worse for Ireland than Hard Brexit. The British reckon the EU and Ireland prefer a bad deal, ie Hard Brexit, over no deal.
A couple of observations from me. I reckon the UK will end up with Soft Brexit despite current rhetoric from the government. This is a personal take. Others' mileages may vary. The government have been so wrapped in negotiating with each other they haven't faced reality or up to now attempted real negotiations with the parties they supposed to be working with. When they do, they will get more realistic. In the meantime, it is maybe not a good idea to force the issue too hard.
My second observation is I don't think the Unionists have the numbers in Northern Ireland for a hard line. I am not even sure they all want one themselves. While Unionist parties still have slightly more support than Nationalist parties, non-aligned parties, ie Alliance and Greens, now make up more than the difference. These parties are in favour of pan-Ireland integration
Unless they ask for and get a transition or A50 extension in the next three months (because they still have to decide the terms of trade and businesses have to understand them and then act upon them), then no deal it is.
Even if the UK delivered a Brexit which was unpopular in NI, there is no sign of this changing.
What there are signs of is continental politicians failing to understand UK politics. As in Scotland, a vote for Remain does not mean that people are hung up on it. Sure, in NI, a small majority would have rathered stay in the EU. But their support for the UK is much stronger.
Could get tricky.
Suspect their problem with a new invisible border would also become invisible if the Uk offered the RoI mucho €€€.
Ultimately it's seeing the UK humbled that will have the most far-reaching consequences for the viability of unionism as a coherent political force.
I am reasonably optimistic that Northern Ireland won't revert to the bad old days because of Brexit. What I think is more likely is that a conscious wish NOT to return to those days will result in greater Irish integration.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-customs-union-stay-negotiations-theresa-may-trade-single-market-eu-latest-a8073466.html
The Irish threat is to ensure a hard border by vetoing a trade deal unless the Brits guarantee no hard border. I hereby name this negotiating manoeuvre the "Irish self-flummoxing bamboozlement gambit".
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
Their logical approach would be (a) to get the UK and the other 26 countries to commit to as soft a border as possible (done, everyone agrees on that), and then (b) to encourage the other 26 countries to get on ASAP with agreeing a trade deal so that the border question can be fitted into the framework and arrangements put in place for the smoothest possible transition.
As it is, they are making a literally impossible demand of the UK: a guarantee from the UK that the EU and the Republic won't impose a hard border. No wonder UK negotiators are bewildered.
Time is running out. If this isn't all resolved with a very few weeks the UK will have no option but to give up on trade talks and use the remaining dwindling time to concentrate on minimising cliff-edge disruption to the UK economy. The Irish will be collateral damage in that scenario.
Winning world cups will just be one of the legion of benefits.
The UK loses its judge on the world court and is ignominiously kicked out of the City of Culture process.
This is already a humbling process and it will get much worse before it gets better.
A 71-year-old American male has about a 2.6% chance of dying in the next year. This figure steadily creeps up with each year, to 3.3% in Year 4. The total cumulative chance of succumbing to the actuarial reaper within four years is a far-from-negligible 11.3%
F1: Hamilton looking good, but otherwise quite tight.
If he is to be forced from office, it is most likely due to a health issue. Now, he's not the fittest looking 71 year old around, and the Presidency is a demanding job. So, I'd reckon there's a non-trivial risk of a major health issue in the next three years. But still, the chances can't be more than 20% or so.
The risks of impeachment, as you say, are currently very low. It would need to be something so big that the Republicans in the Senate were willing to say to their own constituents, "hey, we're voting to get rid of your nominee." Now it's possible such a thing happens. But it's not a 20% shot, it's maybe 5%.
So, continue to bet on Mr Trump remaining President for the next three years.
https://verdict.justia.com/2017/02/02/youre-fired-four-ways-donald-trumps-presidency-might-not-last-four-years
Presidents do seem to have good longevity, and the Donald is a teetotal nonsmoker, but on the otherhand is obese and physically inactive. He doesnt seem to have medical issues, but on the other hand doesn't seem interested in seeing my colleagues prophylacticly.
That suggests to me that there will be some kind of deal to resolve it without another election.
If the Dems win back Alabama that’ll take the Senate to 51:49 with one of the 51 McCain.
The government might as well just cut straight to the lorry parks on the A2.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4990641/liam-fox-blasts-british-business-and-claims-they-dont-want-to-export-their-goods-and-are-damaging-his-efforts-to-boost-the-economy/
Liam Fox:
"I can agree as many trade agreements as I like, but if British business doesn’t want to export, then that doesn’t do us any good."
Never met anyone who rated him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8z_z9trXNk
....
Could we be seeing in future years the EU arguments that ripped through the tory party do the same to labour on rejoining the EU ?
Well this week in the labour ranks reminded me of the Tories in the past over the EU.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42110223
The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.
Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.
https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/933824934723358720
If the Irish and the EU don't like the consequences of their own rules, then they either have to put up with it, change the rules, or at least open negotiations on how the future relationship can be made to work. The UK government can't stop them putting up a hard border if they want to, and it's certainly not going to halt Brexit because the Irish don't like it, still less because the Irish refuse to accept the UK's desire to get on with discussing how to make it work in everyone's interest.
We seem to have gone from the position where the Brexiteers were irrational, before the referendum, to a position now where the EU27 and especially the Irish, most of the UK commentariat, the LibDems, and half of Labour are irrational. It is a most bizarre spectacle.
By contrast a plurality of 25 to 49 year olds and 50 to 64 year olds want to keep tax rates as they are.
Overall a majority or plurality support ever Budget measure announced with most support for more NHS spending and least support for extending the young persons' railcard to 26 to 30 year olds.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/11/24/publics-view-budget-5-charts/
Switzerland is a model for how the Irish border should be handled: no passport checks, electronic manifests, and just a couple of main arteries.
Everybody wants taxes on Someone Else. Put up VAT and people bleat (and Labour put up angry posters with things like VAT-exempt items such as food on them). Put up income tax and it'd be a tax on ordinary people. Put up National Insurance and it's a tax on jobs.
The upcoming third country status ruling should be interesting.
This should be a non-issue, especially since all sides agree on what we're trying to achieve. It is weird how it has become one.